College Football betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, September 30th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites.
TOLEDO (3 - 0) at BYU (1 - 3) - 9/30/2016, 10:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BYU is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TOLEDO is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TOLEDO is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TOLEDO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
TOLEDO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TOLEDO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
STANFORD (3 - 0) at WASHINGTON (4 - 0) - 9/30/2016, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
STANFORD is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 54-32 ATS (+18.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-1 against the spread versus STANFORD over the last 3 seasons
STANFORD is 2-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TOLEDO vs. BYU
Toledo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Toledo is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games
BYU is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of BYU's last 12 games at home
STANFORD vs. WASHINGTON
Stanford is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Stanford's last 17 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Washington's last 12 games when playing Stanford
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Stanford
Toledo at BYU
Toledo: 6-0 ATS in non-conference games
BYU: 24-9 UNDER in home games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game
Stanford at Washington
Stanford: 10-2 ATS against conference opponents
Washington: 0-7 ATS off a road no-cover where the team won as a favorite
StatFox Super Situations
TOLEDO at BYU
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 average defensive team (330 to 390 YPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=280 YPG), in non-conference games 46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units ) 1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )
NCAAF Week 5
BYU lost its last three games by total of 7 points; their four games this year were decided by total of 10 points. Cougars lost their only home game to UCLA; they’re 19-14 as home favorite the last 6+ years- as an independent, their schedule is too tough early in the year, too easy later on. Toledo is 16-6 in last 22 tries as road dogs, which is why former coach Campbell moved up to Iowa St. Rockets have played stiffs so far, move way up in class here.
Stanford beat USC/UCLA last two weeks, holding them to total of 23 points; Cardinal won seven of last eight with Washington, four of last five here; underdogs covered three of last four games in series. Huskies were held to 179-231 TY last two meetings. U-Dub is trying to go 5-0 for first time since 1992; they needed OT to win at Arizona LW; Huskies are +9 in turnovers in 4-0 start, 14-8 as a home favorite last 5+ years. Stanford is 4-1-1 as a road underdog.
Armadillosports.com
Stanford at Washington
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Washington and Stanford will take their unbeaten records into Husky Stadium on Friday night for a crucial Pac-12 North showdown between the division’s two best teams. As of Wednesday, most books had Washington installed as a three-point home favorite with a total of 44 points.
However, by Thursday morning, most spots had adjusted the Huskies to -3.5, but with a -105 price tag. The Cardinal was +155 on the money line (risk $100 to win $155). Meanwhile, for first-half wagers, Washington was favored by 2.5 with a 22-point tally.
Stanford (3-0 straight up, 3-0 against the spread) kept its ledger unscathed in Week 4 by rallying past UCLA for a 22-13 win as a 2.5-point road favorite. The Cardinal trailed for most of the game but outscored the Bruins 16-3 in the final stanza.
Trailing 13-9 with 24 seconds remaining, Ryan Burns put perfect touch on a lob pass to the corner of the end zone for JJ Arcega-Whiteside, who hauled it in for an eight-yard TD grab in traffic. Some gamblers might have been on Stanford at -3 or UCLA at +3 (if they placed their bet earlier in the week) and were likely looking at a push until the game’s final play.
UCLA’s Josh Rosen was attempting to roll to his right and get rid of a Hail Mary pass to the end zone. But as he was winding up to launch the long throw, a Stanford defender came from behind and knocked the ball loose. Solomon Thomas grabbed the ball and raced 42 yards for a scoop and score to give Stanford -3 backers a miracle win and simultaneously hand UCLA +3 supporters an unfathomably bad beat. The 35 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 47-point total.
Christian McCaffrey rushed for 138 yards on 26 carries, while Bryce Love contributed 51 rushing yards on just five attempts. Burns completed 13-of-25 passes for 137 yards with one TD and one interception. Trenton Irwin made seven catches for 81 yards.
McCaffrey has 635 all-purpose yards through three games. The first-team All-American in 2015 appears poised to collect those same honors again. McCaffrey has rushed for 429 yards and three TDs, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. He also has 13 receptions for 126 yards and one TD.
Burns, a true junior, beat out sophomore Keller Chryst for the starting QB job in August Burns has connected on 36-of-58 passes (62.1%) for 402 yards with a 3/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Stanford is ranked eighth nationally in scoring defense, allowing just 12.0 PPG. This unit is led by senior safety Zach Hoffpauir, who has successfully returned to the gridiron after taking a year off to play minor-league baseball. Hoffpauir has a team-best 16 tackles. Thomas has recorded 10 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks and three QB hurries. Senior LB Peter Kalambayi has 12 tackles, four TFL, 2.5 sacks and one QB hurry.
Washington (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) gave up a tying TD at Arizona with 17 seconds remaining last week, but the Huskies remained unbeaten nonetheless by capturing a 35-28 win over the Wildcats in overtime. Chris Petersen’s squad never threatened to cover the number as a 17-point road favorite, while the 63 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 58.5-point total thanks to OT.
Arizona was playing without starting QB Anu Solomon and RB Nick Wilson, but Rich Rodriguez’s team still produced 475 yards of total offense. However, Washington was able to force three turnovers.
Lavon Coleman needed only 11 carries to produce 181 rushing yards and one TD. Jake Browning found Dante Pettis for a four-yard scoring strike to put the Huskies in front on the first possession of the extra session. After Arizona moved to UW’s 11, its drive stalled and a bad snap on a fourth-and-10 play resulted in a stop and the end of the game.
Browning completed 14-of-21 passes for 160 yards and two TDs with one interception. He also scored a TD on a three-yard run. Myles Gaskin rushed for 85 yards on 24 carries.
Browning, a true sophomore who now has 16 career starts to his credit, has completed 67-of-95 passes (70.5%) for 904 yards with a 14/2 TD-INT ratio. Chico McClatcher has 12 receptions for 269 yards and four TDs, while John Ross has 17 catches for 195 yards and five TDs. Pettis has brought down 11 balls for 151 yards and three scores.
Gaskin has rushed for 302 yards and a pair of TDs while averaging 4.7 YPC. Coleman has produced 261 rushing yards and one TD on just 27 carries for an eye-popping 9.7 YPC average.
Washington owns an 8-5 spread record in 13 games as a home favorite during Petersen’s three-year tenure. As for Stanford, it has compiled a 4-1-1 spread record with four outright victories in its six games as a road underdog on David Shaw’s watch.
Stanford has won three in a row and seven of the last eight in this rivalry, but Washington is 3-1 ATS in the last four encounters. The ‘under’ is 9-3 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings.
When these teams squared off in Palo Alto last season, Stanford thumped UW by a 31-14 count to take the cash as a 15.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The 45 combined points slithered ‘under’ the 47.5-point total. Shaw’s team went to intermission with a 17-0 advantage and extended the lead to 31-7 by the end of the third quarter.
McCaffrey rushed 23 times for 109 yards and one TD while also making five catches for 112 yards and another score. Gaskin was UW’s only bright spot, rushing for 108 yards and one TD on 18 carries.
Stanford WR Francis Owusu is out with a concussion, but he has only made two catches for 15 yards so far this year. Both of the Cardinal’s starting CBs, Quenton Meeks and Alijah Holder, are out with unspecified injuries. Holder has nine tackles, one tackle for loss, one forced fumble and five passes broken up. Meeks has six tackles, one interception and two PBU.
Another Stanford starter was added to the injury list on Wednesday. Sophomore offensive guard Brandon Fanaika is ‘questionable’ with an undisclosed injury.
The ‘over’ is 3-1 overall for UW, going 2-1 in its home games. Meanwhile, Stanford has watched the ‘under’ go 3-0 with its combined scores averaging 37.0 points per game.
Stanford has a home game against Washington State on deck next week, while the Huskies will travel to Eugene to take on a slumping Oregon squad that could be 0-2 in league play if it loses in Pullman on Saturday.
Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
In the latest odds to win the College Football Playoff at the Westgate SuperBook, Washington and Stanford had future odds of 12/1 and 20/1, respectively. As for odds to win the Pac-12 at Sportsbook.ag, Washington was the +160 ‘chalk,’ while the Cardinal had the second-shortest odds (+180, risk $100 to win $180).
The Westgate had McCaffrey with the third-shortest odds to win the Heisman (10/1). Louisville’s Lamar Jackson was the huge favorite (4/11) and Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett had 8/1 odds.
There’s a second game on Friday’s card – Toledo at BYU. As of Thursday morning, most spots had the Cougars installed as 3.5-point home favorites with a total of 52. The Rockets are undefeated and have had two weeks to prep for their trip to Lavell Edwards Stadium in Provo. However, their three opponents have yet to register a victory over an FBS foe. Toledo beat up on Arkansas State, Maine and Fresno State On the flip side, BYU has lost three in a row after beating Arizona in Glendale by an 18-16 in the season opener. But the Cougars have lost those three contests by seven combined points, and those defeats have come at Utah, at home vs. UCLA and vs. West Virginia in Landover, MY.
BYU senior QB Taysom Hill might be on a short leash this week. You can’t measure Hill’s impact strictly by his passing numbers because he’s a poor man’s Tim Tebow with his bulldog running skills. Even with that said, it’s hard to ignore Hill’s abysmal 4/7 TD-INT ratio when Tanner Mangum is on the sidelines. When Hill was injured in Week 1 at Nebraska last year, the then-freshman Mangum led the Cougars to a comeback win. He proceeded to throw for 3,377 yards with a 23/10 TD-INT ratio the rest of the season. BYU running back Jamaal Williams, who was suspended for all of 2015, broke out for 169 rushing yards and a pair of TDs against the Mountaineers last week. BYU-Toledo will kick at 10:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
After struggling in a season-opening loss to Georgia in Atlanta at the Georgia Dome, North Carolina QB Mitch Trubisky is lighting up opponents. In four games this year, he has completed 74.5 percent of his passes for 1,306 yards and 10 TDs without an interception. Trubisky also has three rushing TDs.
Brian Kelly isn’t a happy camper after his team lost at home to Duke 38-35 to fall to 1-3 on the season. He took it out on defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder, who was fired on Monday. The Fighting Irish face Syracuse this week in East Rutherford, N.J.
Duke owns an 18-11-1 spread record as a home favorite during David Cutcliffe’s nine-year tenure. The Blue Devils, who are fresh off the upset win in South Bend as 19.5-point underdogs, host Virginia as 3.5-point home ‘chalk.’ They have won six of the last eight head-to-head meetings with the Cavaliers. Cutcliffe’s team will be playing without its leading returning tackler and special-teams ace DeVon Edwards, who went down with a season-ending injury against the Fighting Irish.
Iowa star WR Matt VandeBerg is out indefinitely after suffering a foot injury at Monday’s practice. VandeBerg paces the Hawkeyes in receptions (19), receiving yards (284) and TD catches (three). They host Northwestern as 13.5-point home favorites.
Rutgers dropped a 14-7 decision to Iowa at home last week and in the process lost two of its best players. Senior WR and special-teams ace Janarion Grant was lost to a season-ending ankle injury. Grant was the Scarlet Knights’ best offensive playmaker with 655 all-purpose yards and five TDs. He had four special-teams TDs in 2015 and had already scored on both a punt and kick return through four games this year. Grant was leading RU in catches (20) and receiving yards (210) and had also rushed 16 times for 138 yards and three TDs with an 8.6 YPC average. Making matters worse, senior DE Quanzell Lambert was also lost for the season with a leg injury. Lambert had 16 tackles, four QB hurries, 1.5 TFL’s and 0.5 sacks. He recorded 43 tackles, 2.5 sacks, five TFL’s, seven QB hurries and two PBU in 2015.
NCAAF Game of the Day: Stanford at Washington
By Covers.com
No. 6 Stanford Cardinal at No. 9 Washington Huskies (-3.5, 44.5)
Junior running back Christian McCaffrey ranks second in the nation in rushing yards per game but is somehow considered to be experiencing a down season as he leads No. 6 Stanford into a Pac-12 showdown at No. 9 Washington on Friday night. McCaffrey's spectacular 2015 campaign in which he rushed for 2,019 yards and finished second in the Heisman Trophy balloting has made his 145.3 rushing yards per game seem pedestrian but only San Diego State's Donnel Pumphrey (199.7) has a better average.
McCaffrey aims to help the Cardinal defeat the Huskies for the eighth time in the past nine meetings and Washington coach Chris Petersen is well aware of who will be the best player on the field. "He's great with the ball in his hands," Petersen told reporters of McCaffrey. "Unbelievable vision, extremely explosive, and maybe as patient as anybody I've seen. Whether he's returning kicks or handed the ball in the backfield, those characteristics just show up, and it's a unique combination." Both teams won their last seven games dating back to last season and the contest is the Huskies' opportunity to show they are for real and not unbeaten just because of a soft schedule. Stanford won 15 of its past 16 contests and matched the school record of seven consecutive Pac-12 road wins (2010-11).
LINE HISTORY: Washington opened this important Pac-12 showdown favored by a field goal at home and have since moved to -3.5. The total opened at 44 and has been bet up slightly to the current number of 44.5. Check out the complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Stanford - G B. Fanaika (questionable Friday, undisclosed), TE G. Taboada (questionable Friday, undisclosed), CB A. Holder (out Friday, undisclosed), FB D. Marx (out Friday, undisclosed), CB Q. Meeks (out Friday, undisclosed), WR F. Owusu (out Friday, concussion).
Washington - WR B. Lenius (questionable Friday, undisclosed).
WEATHER REPORT: It should be a nice night for football in Seattle. The forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the low 60's for the game. There will also be a very slight 10 percent chance of rain and there will be a five to six mile per hour wind gusting across the field from the southwest.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Another pivotal top battle takes place in the Pac-12 Friday as the Washington Huskies host the Stanford Cardinal. Both are coming off narrow surviving wins last week. With a tight line to the home team of the Huskies will Stanford's pedestrian ways payoff, or can the Huskies take a program step forward as the elite representative of the Pac-12?" - Covers Expert Zack Cimini.
ABOUT STANFORD (3-0, 3-0 ATS, 0-3 O/U): McCaffrey rushed for 436 yards and leads the Cardinal in receiving (12 catches for 119 yards), which led frustrated coach David Shaw to say "when this kid doesn't get 300 yards of total offense, we say he got 'bottled up.'" Opponents are crowding the line to stop McCaffrey as senior quarterback Ryan Burns (395 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions) hasn't displayed the ability to be a downfield passing threat despite throwing the go-ahead touchdown pass with 24 seconds left to beat UCLA on Saturday. The defense ranks eighth nationally in scoring defense at 12 points per game and junior defensive tackle Solomon Thomas was named Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Week after returning a fumble 42 yards for a touchdown and also posting a sack against the Bruins.
ABOUT WASHINGTON (4-0, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U): Sophomore quarterback Jake Browning threw 14 touchdown passes against two interceptions this season while helping the Huskies rank 10th nationally in scoring offense at 45.8 points per game. Sophomore tailback Myles Gaskin has a team-leading 302 rushing yards but is being pushed by junior Lavon Coleman, who exploded for a career-best 181 yards on 11 carries in Saturday's 35-28 overtime victory over Arizona. Washington allowed a staggering 308 rushing yards to the Wildcats, which makes slowing McCaffrey seem like more of a challenge for a defense led by junior linebacker Azeem Victor (team-best 31 tackles) and junior safety Budda Baker (20 stops).
TRENDS:
* Stanford is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 6-1 in Washington's last seven games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Washington.
CONSENSUS: The public likes the road dog in this Pac-12 clash with 64 percent of wagers on Stanford. When it comes to the total, bettors like the Over here, with 67 percent of wagers on it.