College Football Betting News and Notes Monday, January 6

NCAAF Bowl Previews
Insiderangles.com

BCS National Championship Game – Florida State (-8½) vs. Auburn - Most of the talk surrounding this contest has centered around Florida State winning every single game this year by double-digits while winning by an average of +42.3 points, thanks to ranking second in the country in points scored and leading the nation in fewest points allowed. Seemingly being ignored is the fact that the Seminoles faced a schedule ranked 63rd in SOS coming out of the weak ACC, while Auburn faced an SOS ranked 20th as it looks to extend the SEC streak of national championships to eight straight years. The Auburn rushing offense has been unstoppable all year while leading the country with 335.7 yards per game on the ground, and even though FSU ranked 13th in rushing defense, it has not faced an attack like the Tigers possess playing in the ACC. Post-season favorites off of four ATS wins (Florida State) are 13-29 ATS since 2000 for a 69.1 percent fade.

NCAAF Bowl Preview
Sportspic.com

BCS National Championship

Matchup: Auburn (12-1, 11-2 ATS) vs. Florida State (13-0, 11-2 ATS)
Location: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California

Opening Line: Florida State -9.5
Current Line: Florida State -9
Percentage of Action: 71% Auburn

Key Betting Trends:
Auburn: Under is 7-2 in last nine Tiger bowl games
Florida State: 7-0-1 ATS in last five bowl appearances

Analysis: Auburn is on a roll with an iconic win over Alabama, followed by a conference title victory against Missouri, and will make its first bowl visit in two years. In that previous effort, they easily covered as a three-point favorite. Florida State is looking to cap a perfect season, and comes off a rout, which has been good news for their following game. When they’ve won by 28 or more, they have an 8-2 ATS mark in their next contest this season. The early cash favors Auburn, but the Seminoles’ prowess in bowls is hard to overlook.

Lean: Florida State

Bowl Breakdown
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com

BCS National Championship Game - Florida State Seminoles vs. Auburn Tigers

Opening Line: Florida State -8½

And it all boils down to this. The Noles have perhaps their biggest challenge defensively against an Auburn team which just rolled up over 800 yards combined in consecutive games against Missouri and Alabama, no small feat for sure. The Noles though, have averaged 53 points per game and do just about everything well. Here's the question, though: Have the Seminoles just played no one good and have rolled everyone up, or are they that good? If they're that good, the seven year chokehold the SEC has had on the BCS National Championship is about to go by the wayside.

BCS Championship Trends
VegasInsider.com

The 2013-14 BCS Championship between Florida State and Auburn will be the 16th and final installment of this series. The title game will be replaced by the College Football Playoff in 2014, which will consist of four schools.

Overall BCS Championships Trends (1999-2013)

Favorites have gone 8-7 both straight up and against the spread

Favorites have gone 5-1 both SU and ATS the last six seasons

The point-spread has never mattered in the 15 title games. All favorites who won also covered the spread

Eleven of the 15 matchups have been decided by double digits

The largest margin of victory occurred in 2005 when USC defeated Oklahoma by 36 points (55-19)

The biggest upset in the BCS Championship Ohio State in 2003, who defeated Miami, Fl. 31-24 as a 12-point underdog

The SEC has won the past seven BCS Championships

BCS Championship Total Trends

The ‘over’ has gone 8-7 in the 15 championships

The ‘under’ is on a 3-2 (60%) run the past six title games

There have been three totals listed at 68 points or higher in the title game. The ‘under’ has gone 2-1 in those game and could’ve went 3-0 if Longhorns quarterback Vince Young didn’t rally Texas past USC 41-38 in the 2006 title game. The 79 combined points in this game is the most all-time in the BCS title game

The lowest combined points scored in a title game were 15 when Oklahoma defeated Florida State 13-2

BCS Championships Trends – Games Played in Pasadena

This will be the fourth title game played at the Rose Bowl from Pasadena, CA

Favorites have gone 2-1 both SU and ATS and the ‘over’ is 2-1

School History in BCS

Florida State is 1-2 in the BCS Championship

The Seminoles played in the first three title games, the last instance coming in 2001

FSU was favored in all three of those championships

Auburn is 1-0 in the BCS Championship

The Tigers defeated the Ducks 22-19 as one-point underdogs in the 2011 title game

Conference History in BCS

The SEC has gone 9-1 in the BCS Championship

The lone loss came in 2012 when the title game had two schools from SEC in the title game -- Alabama defeated LSU 21-0

The ACC has gone 1-2 in the BCS Championship – FSU represented the conference all three times

Florida State vs. Auburn
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Auburn will carry the SEC banner into Monday’s BCS Championship Game vs. Florida State at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena. If Auburn can prevail, it will be the eighth consecutive season the SEC has taken home the national title.

As of early Sunday afternoon, most books had Florida State (13-0 straight up, 11-2 against the spread) listed as a nine-point favorite with a total of 67. Gamblers can back the Tigers on the money line for a +250 return (risk $100 to win $250). For first-half wagers, the Seminoles are favored by 5.5 with a total of 34.

FSU is back in the BCS Championship Game for the first time in 13 years. In their last such appearance, the ‘Noles lost 13-2 to Oklahoma in Miami.

Jimbo Fisher’s team cruised through an easy schedule with 13 straight victories by 14 points or more. The only semblance of a close game came in Week 4 at Boston College. The Eagles raced out to a 17-3 advantage early in the second quarter behind a pair of touchdown passes from Chase Rettig.

But FSU would score 21 unanswered points and go to halftime with a 24-17 lead thanks to Jameis Winston’s Hail Mary TD pass of 55 yards to Kenny Shaw on the final play of the second quarter. BC would get an early field goal in the third quarter, but it wouldn’t get any closer in a 48-34 defeat.

In its only single-digit ‘chalk’ spot of the season, FSU rolled to a 51-14 at Clemson as a five-point favorite to snap a decade-long slump in Death Valley. Winston torched the Tigers for 444 yards passing and three TDs.

In the ACC Championship Game, FSU shook off a sloppy first-half performance to capture a 45-7 win as a 30-point favorite. Winston had three TD passes and one rushing score.

Winston became the second straight freshman to win the Heisman Trophy, joining Johnny Manziel as the only rookies to do so. The redshirt freshman completed 67.9 percent of his throws for 3,820 yards with a 38/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Winston also ran for 193 yards and four scores.

Winston has a talented array of wide receivers led by Rashad Greene, who has 67 receptions for 981 yards and nine TDs. Kelvin Benjamin has great size and hauled in 50 catches for 957 yards and 14 TDs.

Devonta Freeman paces the ground attack, rushing for a team-high 943 yards and 13 TDs while averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Karlos Williams is a more-than-capable back-up who ran for 705 yards and 11 TDs while averaging an eye-opening 8.2 YPC. James Wilder Jr. is as good as it gets for a third-stringer, rushing for 542 yards and eight TDs with a 6.9 YPC average.

Auburn (12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS) has thrived in the underdog role, compiling a 5-0 spread record with four outright victories. Gus Malzahn’s team won as a ‘dog vs. Ole Miss (30-22), at Texas A&M (45-41), vs. Alabama (34-28) and vs. Missouri (59-42).

Tre Mason led his team to victory over Missouri at the SEC Championship Game with a record-breaking performance. Mason rushed 46 times for 304 yards and four touchdowns. Nick Marshall completed 9-of-11 throws for 132 yards and one TD without an interception. Marshall ran 16 times for 101 rushing yards and one score.

Mason’s break-out game against Mizzou earned him an invite to Heisman ceremonies. He has run for 1,621 yards and 22 TDs. Mason also has 11 catches for 121 yards. He contributes on special-teams as well and has 2,137 all-purpose yards.

Malzahn doesn’t ask Marshall to throw much, but he has been effective when asked to. Marshall has completed 60.4 percent of his passes for 1,759 with a 12/5 TD-INT ratio. Marshall has run for 1,023 yards and 11 TDs.

When AU does go to the aerial attack, Sammie Coates is the man to look for. Coates has a team-high 38 receptions for 841 yards and seven TDs.

FSU has played in two BCS Championship Games against SEC foes. On Jan. 2 of 1997, Florida drilled FSU 52-20 to win the school’s first national title. Three years later, Tennessee beat the ‘Noles 23-16 in Tempe.

Auburn was in this game three seasons ago, knocking off Oregon 22-19 as a one-point ‘chalk.’

The ‘over’ has cashed in four consecutive Auburn games and seven of its last eight. The ‘over’ went 8-5 overall for the Tigers this year, with their games producing an average combined score of 64.2 points per game.

The ‘over’ is 10-3 overall for FSU, but the ‘under’ has emerged in back-to-back games for the ‘Noles. They have seen their games average a combined score of 63.7 PPG.

Kickoff on Monday night is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

BCS National Championship: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Florida State Seminoles vs. Auburn Tigers (+9, 67)

BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME STORYLINES:

1. Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston leads top-ranked Florida State into battle against No. 2 Auburn in the Vizio BCS National Championship Game on Jan. 6 at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif. Winston because the youngest Heisman winner (19 years, 342 days) in history after a superb freshman campaign in which he passed for 3,820 yards and 38 touchdowns. Auburn got itself into the title game with a superb final three-game run that included miraculous late-game victories over Georgia and Alabama before beating Missouri in the SEC title game.

2. Both teams have prolific offenses with the Seminoles leading the nation with 90 touchdowns while ranking second in scoring at 53 points per game with a low output of 37 points. The Tigers have the nation’s top rushing attack (335.7) and scored 69 total touchdowns while tied for 11th in the nation in scoring at 40.2 points.

3. The difference in the game could be on the defensive side as Florida State has a ferocious unit that ranks first nationally in scoring defense (10.7) and passing defense (152 per game) and third in total defense (268.5). Auburn is suspect on this side of the ball, allowing 24 points per game and ranking 88th in total defense (423.5) and 104th in passing defense (260.2).

LINE: Florida State opened as 9.5-point faves, were bet down to -8.5 and now sit at -9. The total opened at 65.5, was bet as high as 68 and now sits at 67.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the lows 60s with a six mph wind blowing across the field.

ABOUT AUBURN (12-1, 11-2 ATS): Tre Mason finished sixth in the Heisman balloting after a superb regular season that included 1,621 yards and an SEC-record 22 rushing scores. Mason forms an explosive trio with multipurpose quarterback Nick Marshall (12 passing scores, 1,023 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns) and receiver Sammie Coates (22.1 average, seven TDs). Cornerback Chris Davis – famous for providing the winning points with the game-ending missed field goal return against Alabama – has a team-high 69 tackles and teams with other defensive standouts like safety Robenson Therezie (four interceptions) and defensive end Dee Ford (8.5 sacks).

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (13-0, 11-2 ATS): The Seminoles have a plethora of skill players as three players have compiled more than 500 rushing yards and three receivers have more than 900 receiving yards. Devonta Freeman (943 yards, 13 touchdowns) is the primary back while Rashad Green had a team-best 67 receptions with Kelvin Benjamin hauling in 14 scoring receptions. Cornerback Lamarcus Joyner (five sacks, two interceptions) and outside linebacker Telvin Smith (three interceptions, team-best 75 tackles) lead a strong defense that intercepted 25 passes, including a team-high four from safety Nate Andrews.

TRENDS:

* Florida State is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games overall.
* Auburn is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall.
* Over is 10-3 in Florida State's last 13 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Auburn's last four games overall.

BCS Championship

SEC teams won last seven national title games, but won/covered last six as favorites; last underdog to win this game was Florida (+7.5) vs Ohio State seven years ago. Auburn won last five bowl games, four by exactly three points; but Malzahn is coaching his first bowl, while Fisher is 3-0 in his bowl games, winning by 9-4-21 points. Seminoles also won their last five bowls- their freshman QB Winston won Heisman and they've won 12 games by 28+ points. Boston College ran ball for 200 yards in an Sept 28 game, led early, then lost 48-34. Florida State simply hasn't had a stressful fourth quarter all season. Auburn has six wins by eight points or less; their QB is an average passer at best (he was once a Florida DB before going to JC), but they run ball- only once in their last nine games did they run ball for less than 282 yards. Tigers are 4-0 as dogs, winning three of them SU- their only loss was 35-21 (+17) at LSU- they pulled rabbits out of a hat vs Georgia/Alabama, can they do it here too? BC was only team all season to score more than 17 points vs Seminoles.

Armadillosports.com

College Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Auburn vs Florida St

No secret Florida State (13-0, 11-2 ATS) has been dominant from the outset this season. Lead by QB Winston (3820 Yds, 38 TD) the Seminoles' racked up a nation-best 53.0 points/game while it's #1 scoring defense allowed just 10.7 points per game. Auburn proving it's critics wrong time and again during the campaign finishing 12-1 (11-2 ATS) behind the nation's top-ranked running game pounding out 335.7 rushing yards/game that allowed the squad to notch 40.2 PPG. However, Auburn's path back to a National Title could hit a speed bump as it's disappointing defense yielding 260.2 PYG, 24.0 PPG will be hard pressed slowing down Winston and the Florida State offense. Key betting trends - Seminoles' are on an 8-0-1 ATS stretch in bowl appearances, 12-3-1 ATS in neutral site games, 4-1 ATS last 5 against the SEC. Tigers are 4-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games, 2-7 ATS last 9 against ACC opponents. Looking at the total, Seminoles' are 1-5 O/U vs the SEC, 5-13 O/U in non-conference games. Tigers hit the field 2-7-1 O/U vs. the ACC, 2-6 O/U in Bowl games. Florida State has been pegged 9-point favorite with the total set at 67.