College Football Betting News and Notes Monday, January 9th, 2017

CLEMSON (13 - 1) vs. ALABAMA (14 - 0) - 1/9/2017, 8:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 66-45 ATS (+16.5 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
ALABAMA is 54-28 ATS (+23.2 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
ALABAMA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
CLEMSON is 31-14 ATS (+15.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
CLEMSON is 59-35 ATS (+20.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEMSON is 1-0 against the spread versus ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
ALABAMA is 1-0 straight up against CLEMSON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

CLEMSON vs. ALABAMA
Clemson is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Clemson's last 5 games
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Alabama's last 7 games

Clemson at Alabama
Clemson: 5-20 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games
Clemson: 13-28 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games
Alabama: 7-1 ATS after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game
Alabama: 10-2 ATS after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game

Clemson: 8-1 OVER in road games after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins
Alabama: 19-6 OVER as a neutral field favorite
Alabama: 22-10 OVER in road games after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games
Alabama: 29-13 OVER in road games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games

StatFox Super Situations

CLEMSON at ALABAMA
Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ALABAMA) excellent offensive team (>=440 YPG) against a team with a good defense (280 to 330 YPG), in non-conference games 32-10 over the last 10 seasons. ( 76.2% | 21.0 units ) 2-2 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.2 units )

CLEMSON at ALABAMA
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 25 to 28 after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games 41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units ) 1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )

NCAAF: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Clemson vs Alabama

Alabama's 24-7 win over Washington in the Peach Bowl and Clemson's dominating 31-0 victory over Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl sets up a second straight meeting between Alabama - Clemson in the College Football National Championship Game.

Clemson lead by dual-threat QB Deshaun Watson with 46 combined TD's along with his favorite receiver Mike Williams pulling in 10 TD's and always dangerous back Wayne Gallman chipping in 16 majors have the offensive weapons to test Alabama's dominant defense which leads the nation in total defense (244.4), rushing defense (62.4) and points llowed (11.4).

Nick Saban's troops ridding a 26 game win streak, a profitable 17-9 record against the betting line have opened -6.0 point favorites at Sports Interaction. This is only the second time this season that Alabama has opened single digit favorite (1-0 ATS) and just the sixth time during the current 26-game win streak (4-1 ATS).

Well no note, the lone non-cover came against Tigers in last years Championship Game in which Clemson QB Deshaun Watson put on a show tossing 405 yards with 4 majors in its 45-40 loss as +6.0 point underdog. One final betting nugget - It's been a good year to be an underdog in a bowl game. Through December 31st the first 36 bowls, underdogs are an amazing 24-12 record against the spread (66.7%). In fact, underdogs have won 14 bowl games outright.

Championship Trends
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com

And then there was one.

One team will be left standing at the conclusion of the 2017 College Football Championship game Monday evening, either last year’s champion Alabama, or last year’s runner-up Clemson.

From our all-knowing database, presented below are some of the more notable findings. Enjoy the game.

How They Got Here

Ironically, while the pointspread on this year’s game is the same as last year’s title game - Alabama is a 6.5-point favorite - the record of the two teams has reversed.

The Tide enters as the 13-0 undefeated favorite, whereas the Tigers were the 13-0 undefeated underdog last year.

Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide began the season as the AP preseason No. 1 ranked team and sailed undefeated into the championship game. On the flip side, Dabo Swinney’s Tigers suffered their only defeat in a one-point shootout loss against Pittsburgh.

It should be noted that undefeated AP preseason No. 1 ranked teams have gone 3-7 SU and ATS in bowl games since 1980, including Alabama’s win over Washington in the Peach Bowl this season.

Title Game Tendencies

Looking back at the BCS championship and College Football Playoff title games, undefeated teams have been a 50-50 proposition, going 10-10 straight up (SU) and 10-10 against the spread (ATS) since the first BCS title fight in 1999.

However, spotless teams are only 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS when facing a foe off consecutive SU/ATS wins.

In another twist, three teams have entered national championship title games off a SU underdog wins. All three have managed to take home the money.

Conference And Team Trends

Alabama stands 12-3 SU against ACC opposition since 1980, with 10 of the twelve wins by double-digit margins.

The SEC is 5-6 SUATS in bowl games this season, while the ACC is 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS – including 2-0 SU/ATS versus the SEC.

Clemson is 3-13 SU in its last sixteen games against the SEC, but 8-3 ATS as dogs of more than 3 points in those games.

Coaches DNA

As expected, both coaches bring plenty of cred into this affair.

Nick Saban is 44-5 SU in games with the Tide in which they are ranked No. 1 in the polls. In addition, Saban is 88-15 SU and 59-39 ATS in games in which his teams are undefeated, including 33-14 ATS against opponents his team defeated in a most recent meeting.

Dabo Swinney is 10-6 SUATS against undefeated opposition, including 6-1 ATS when the Tigers are taking points. In addition, Swinney is 3-0 ATS with rest when tackling SEC foes.

Still Perfect After All These Years

Alabama is 13-0 all-time against Clemson since 1905.

Alabama vs. Clemson
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

An Alabama-Clemson rematch in the finals of the third College Football Playoff on Jan. 9 of 2017 was never a given, but there were plenty of reasons to think it would happen as far back as the night (1/11/16) the Crimson Tide walked off the field as 45-40 winners over the Tigers at University of Phoenix Stadium last year.

Alabama (14-0 straight up, 10-4 against the spread) easily made it to Tampa, winning 13 of its 14 games by double-digit margins. The Tide’s struggled in last week’s 24-7 win over Washington, but the defense completely shut down the Huskies after they scored on their opening drive to take a 7-0 lead.

Alabama’s defense scored its 11th touchdown of the season and completely turned the momentum of the game when Ryan Anderson intercepted Jake Browning and returned the pick 26 yards for a TD with just 1:13 left in the second quarter. Anderson’s pick-six sent Alabama into intermission with a 17-7 advantage.

Bo Scarbrough, who had scored on an 18-yard TD run midway through the first quarter, added a 68-yard TD scamper to put Nick Saban’s team ahead of the number for the first time with 11:56 left in the fourth quarter.

Washington was driving with a chance to post a backdoor cover late in the fourth quarter. But on fourth and long, Chris Petersen opted to turn down a long field-goal attempt and the Huskies couldn’t get the first down. Therefore, Alabama backers cashed tickets laying 13 points. The 31 combined points produced a thunder ‘under’ with the total closing at 51.

I mentioned Petersen turning down the field goal because in the week leading up to the Peach Bowl at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, the number went from 14 up to 16.5 and back down all the way to 13. So a successful field goal by UW to cut the deficit to 24-10 would’ve been the difference in a win or loss (or push) for many gamblers.

Alabama held the Huskies to just 194 yards of total offense, but it produced just 326 yards. Offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin, who took the head-coaching job at Florida Atlantic in early December, appeared all out of sorts on the sidelines. He called a terrible game, prompting Saban to send him packing for Boca Raton earlier this week.

Former Washington and Southern Cal head coach Steve Sarkisian had already been named the next offensive coordinator, and he’ll be thrown straight into the fire calling plays Monday night. ‘Sark’ was dubiously dismissed by USC after several alcohol-related incidents, the last of which was showing up to work drunk on Sunday morning after a home loss to Washington.

By all indications, ‘Sark’ has been 100-percent sober for a long time now. He looks healthier than he’s appeared in many years.

While Alabama needed its defense to secure its 26th consecutive victory and make it back to the CFP finals, Clemson (13-1 SU, 7-7 ATS) put together its best performance of the year in all phases in the other CFP semifinal matchup. The Tigers smashed Ohio State 31-0 as a one-point underdog at the Playstation Fiesta Bowl.

Junior quarterback Deshaun Watson led the way by completing 23-of-36 passes for 259 yards and one TD, although he was intercepted twice. Watson rushed 15 times for 57 yards and a pair of TDs. Wayne Gallman ran for a team-best 85 yards and one TD on 18 carries.

Mike Williams, the dynamic wide receiver who didn’t play against Alabama last year after sustaining a season-ending neck injury in the 2015 season opener, had six catches for 96 yards against the Buckeyes. Hunter Renfrow had five receptions for 50 yards, while C.J. Fuller had three grabs for 45 yards and one TD.

Clemson’s defense held Ohio State to a season-low 215 yards of total offense. The Tigers forced three turnovers, including interceptions by Van Smith and Cordrea Tankersley. Smith returned his pick 86 yards.

For the season, Watson has completed 352-of-523 passes (67.3%) for 4,173 yards with a 38/17 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has 581 rushing yards and eight TDs. Gallman has rushed for a team-high 1,087 yards and 16 TDs while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Gallman also has 17 catches for 113 yards.

Williams has bounced back from the neck injury in fantastic fashion. The junior wideout has 90 receptions for 1,267 yards and 10 TDs. Senior tight end Jordan Leggett has 39 catches for 641 yards, while Deon Cain has 33 grabs for 630 yards. Watson has an abundance of weapons at his disposal, including Artavis Scott (73, 608 and 5 TDs), Ray-Ray McCloud (49, 472 and 2) and Renfrow (34, 403 and 4 TDs).

Clemson might have the nation’s best defensive coordinator in Brent Venables. The best move of Dabo Swinney’s entire nine-year tenure at Clemson was plucking Venables away from Oklahoma after Geno Smith and West Virginia hung a 70-spot on the Tigers at the Orange Bowl five years ago.

Venables returned only four starters from last year’s unit, but this year’s defense has been even better. The Tigers are eighth in the nation in total defense, seventh in scoring (17.1 points per game), 16th against the pass and 19th versus the run.

The defense is led by senior LB Ben Boulware and senior DT Carlos Watkins. Boulware has recorded 110 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, four sacks, three forced fumbles, one pass broken up and one interception. Watkins has tallied 44 tackles, 12.5 TFL’s, 10.5 sacks, four QB hurries, four PBU and one blocked kick.

Alabama is ranked No. 1 in the country in total defense, scoring (11.4 PPG) and rush defense. They’re ranked 12th versus the pass. The Tide has held 12 of its 14 foes to 16 points or fewer.

The 24 points scored against Washington was the second-lowest scoring output of the year. Only in a 10-0 win at LSU has Alabama been held to fewer points. Scarbrough rushed for 180 yards and two TDs against the Huskies, but he provided the only offensive production.

True freshman QB Jalen Hurts connected on just 7-of-14 throws for merely 57 yards. Hurts was held to 50 rushing yards on 19 attempts. For the season, Hurts has completed 64.6 percent of his passes for 2,620 yards with a 21/9 TD-INT ratio. He is the team’s second-leading rusher with 891 yards, 12 TDs and a 4.9 YPC average.

Damien Harris has rushed for a team-high 1,013 yards and two TDs while averaging 7.2 YPC. Scarbrough has run for 719 yards and nine TDs with a 6.6 YPC average. Alabama is deep in the backfield, getting production from another true freshman in Joshua Jacobs, who has 551 rushing yards, four TDs and a 6.6 YPC average. Jacobs also has 14 catches for 156 yards and returned a blocked punt 27 yards for a TD in the 54-16 win over Florida at the SEC Championship Game.

Alabama has a pair of elite WRs and one of the nation’s best tight ends. ArDarius Stewart has brought down 52 catches for 816 yards and seven TDs, while Calvin Ridley has 66 receptions for 740 yards and seven TDs. Senior TE O.J. Howard has 41 catches for 489 yards and two TDs.

As of early Sunday night, most betting shops had Alabama listed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 51. Clemson was available on the money line for a +185 return (risk $100 to win $185). For first-half wagers, the Tide was favored by 3.5 with a total of 25.5 points. For first-quarter bets, Alabama is -170 on the money line, while Clemson is available for a +150 payout. The total is 10 (‘over’ -125, ‘under’ +105).

This is just Alabama’s second single-digit ‘chalk’ spot of the season. In the previous instance, the Tide captured a 10-0 win at LSU as a seven-point road favorite. You would probably think that Alabama has thrived in the role of a single-digit favorite recently, but that’s not the case. Saban’s teams have limped to a 7-10 spread record in 17 such situations going back to the 9-6 overtime loss to LSU as a 4.5-point home favorite in 2011.

Clemson has only been an underdog twice year, winning outright in both instances (as a one-point ‘dog each time) vs. Louisville and Ohio St. The Tigers have been ‘dogs in six straight bowl games, going 6-0 ATS with five outright wins. They own a 13-4 spread record with 10 outright victories in 17 games as ‘dogs dating back to 2011.

Clemson had a 550-473 advantage in total offense in last year’s meeting. Watson completed 30-of-47 passes for 405 yards and four TDs with one interception. He ran 20 times for 73 yards. His 24-yard TD pass to Leggett with 12 seconds remaining gave the Tigers a backdoor cover as 6.5-point underdogs. The 85 combined points soared ‘over’ the 50.5-point total.

There were three ties (7-7, 14-14 and 24-24) and four lead changes in Alabama’s 45-40 win that provided Saban with his fifth national championship and his fourth at Alabama since 2009.

When Clemson pulled to within 31-27 on a field goal with 7:47 remaining in the fourth quarter, Kenyan Drake answered with a 95-yard kickoff return for a TD. But Watson would march the Tigers right back down the field, finding Scott for a 15-yard scoring strike with 4:40 left.

Derrick Henry’s one-yard TD run with 1:07 left put the game on ice and appeared to have Alabama’s betting supporters poised to cash tickets. However, Watson’s aforementioned TD pass to Leggett changed that.

Henry rushed for 158 yards and three TDs on 36 carries. Jake Coker completed 16-of-25 passes for 335 yards and two TDs without an interception. O.J. Howard had five receptions for 208 yards, including a pair of TD catches that covered 51 and 53 yards. Stewart had a pair of catches for 63 yards, but Ridley was limited to 14 receiving yards on six receptions.

Totals have been an overall wash (7-7) for Clemson, but it has seen the ‘over’ hit at a 7-3 clip in its last 10 contests. The Tigers have seen their games average combined scores of 56.6 PPG.

The ‘under’ is 8-6 overall for Alabama, cashing in five of its last seven games. The Tide has played three games on neutral field with the ‘over’ going 2-1 in those contests. Their 14 games have averaged combined scores of 50.8 PPG.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Clemson is seeking its first national title since 1981.

There are a slew of proposition bets available for the Alabama-Clemson game. For instance, gamblers can wager on the player to score the first touchdown of the game. Hurts is the +600 ‘chalk’ (risk $100 to win $600), while other attractive options include Scarbrough (+650), Watson (+700), Stewart (+750), Williams (+750), Gallman (+750), Ridley (+800) and Howard (+1200).

Watson’s total for completions is 24.5 (‘under’ -130, ‘over’ -110), while his passing yards are at 275.5 (-120 both ways).

Hurts’s totals look like this: completions: 16 (‘under’ -140, ‘over’ +100), passing yards: 186.5 (-120 both ways) and TD passes: 1.5 (‘over’ -140, ‘under’ +100).

Najee Harris flew into Birmingham on Sunday en route to Tuscaloosa to start classes this week. Harris, who is the No. 1 RB and overall player in the 2017 class, is enrolling early and will participate in spring practice for the Crimson Tide. Harris has been an Alabama commit for a long time, but Michigan was believed to be in the mix in recent weeks. He is the sixth five-star RB Alabama has signed since 2009.

FOX’s Bruce Feldman reported early Sunday afternoon that California had fired Sonny Dykes, who had a 19-30 overall record and a 10-26 mark in Pac-12 play during his four-year tenure. The Golden Bears limped to a 5-7 record this season after losing No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick Jared Goff.

College Football National Championship Betting Preview
By Covers.com

Clemson Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide (-6.5, 50.5)

Top-seeded Alabama looks to claim its fifth national title in 10 seasons under Nick Saban when it battles second-seeded Clemson in Monday's College Football Playoff championship contest at Tampa, Fla. It is a rematch of last season's title game in which the Crimson Tide prevailed 45-40 despite a huge game by Tigers quarterback Deshaun Watson (405 yards passing, 73 rushing). Alabama is attempting to record its 27th consecutive victory while Clemson is pursuing its second national title and first since 1981.

Watson passed for 259 yards and one touchdown while adding two rushing scores in Clemson's 31-0 rout of Ohio State in the semifinals, and he has a major advantage in experience over counterpart Jalen Hurts. Watson, who finished second in this season's Heisman Trophy balloting and third in 2015, has passed for 4,173 yards and 38 touchdowns this campaign but also is prone to miscues, as evidenced by his 17 interceptions. Hurts has accounted for 34 scores (22 passing, 12 rushing) and is aiming to join Oklahoma's Jamelle Holieway (1985) as the only true freshman quarterbacks to lead a team to a national title, but he passed for only 57 yards in the Crimson Tide's 24-7 semifinal victory over Washington.

Alabama made the odd move of separating itself from offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin after the win over Washington, as the new Florida Atlantic coach became a distraction while attempting to juggle two jobs. Saban was highly disappointed with the offensive showing against the Huskies and promoted offensive analyst Steve Sarkisian to offensive coordinator, insisting it will be a smooth transition. "I just feel like I have to make decisions about what's best for the players to have the best chance of being successful," Saban told reporters. "You know, we made the decision and we're not talking about it anymore. We're moving forward. We're looking forward, and everybody is doing everything they can to support the people that are here now to make it work."

LINE HISTORY: Alabama opened as 6-point favorites, that number wasn’t high enough for bettors and has been bet up a full point to 7. The total opened at 53 and has been slowly fading all week down to 50. Check out the complete line history here.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: A rematch from last year’s title game find the same spread only Alabama is the undefeated team this year, and Clemson the one-loss opponent. The Tide should feel confident knowing they are 44-5 SU as a No. 1 ranked team under Nick Saban, while the Tigers are a dazzling 5-0 ATS as bowl dogs versus SEC opponents. The question is can Alabama extend its all-time 13-0 school mark against Clemson, or do the Tigers avenge last year’s loss tonight? - Covers Expert Marc Lawrence

WHAT BOOKS SAY: ""There hasn't been a lot of sharp money show up yet, but what has was early and on Alabama. The action is really starting to pick up and while most of the public has been on Clemson, we are starting seeing a good bit of Bama bets. Currently, more than 65 percent of the wagers are on Clemson but the money is almost even. The under is carrying 72 percent of the handle." - Scott Cooley odds consultant for BookMaker.eu.

WEATHER REPORT: The weather is expected to be perfect for football Monday night in Tampa Bay with clear skies and temperatures in the mid-50’s at kick off.

INJURY REPORT:

Clemson - DE Richard Yeargin (Questionable, knee), WR Trevion Thompson (Questionable, wrist), CB Adrian Baker (Doubtful, knee), OT Jake Fruhmorgen (Doubtful, shoulder), OT Chandler Reeves (Out indefinitely, knee), WR Adrien Dunn (Out for season, knee), CB Brian Dawkins (Out indefinitely, knee).

Alabama - DL Dakota Ball (Out indefinitely, finger), LB Shaun Dion Hamilton (Out for season, knee), OL Josh Casher (Out for season, foot), OL Alphonse Taylor (Out indefinitely, concussion), RB B.J. Emmons (Out indefinitely, foot), DB Eddie Jackson (Out for season, leg).

ABOUT CLEMSON (13-1 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U): Watson threw three or more touchdown passes on seven occasions and topped 300 yards six times while fueling a powerful offense that averaged 39.5 points and scored over 40 seven times. Juniors Mike Williams (90 receptions, 1,267 yards, 10 touchdowns) and Artavis Scott (73 catches) form a potent one-two receiving combo while junior running back Wayne Gallman rushed for 1,087 yards and 16 scores. The Tigers' defense allows averages of 17.1 points and 306.9 yards per game but features weak-side linebacker Ben Boulware (team-best 121 tackles), defensive tackle Carlos Watkins (team-high 10.5 sacks) and strong safety Jadar Johnson (team-leading five interceptions) - all seniors.

ABOUT ALABAMA (14-0 SU, 10-4 ATS, 6-8 O/U): Bo Scarbrough is the squad's third-leading rusher (719 yards) behind fellow sophomore Damien Harris (1,013) and Hurts (891), but he'll play a major role after rushing for two touchdowns and a Crimson Tide bowl-record 180 yards against Washington. Clemson's defense certainly will be paying close attention to senior tight end O.J. Howard (41 catches, 489 yards, two touchdowns) after he made five catches for a career-best 208 yards and two TDs while winning Offensive MVP honors in last year's national title game. Senior defensive end Jonathan Allen (9.5 sacks, two fumble-return scores) won the Nagurski Trophy as the nation's top defensive player and, along with sophomore strong safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (team-best six interceptions), is among the standouts for a unit that scored 11 defensive touchdowns (six interceptions, five fumbles) and leads the nation in both scoring defense (11.4 points per game) and total defense (244 yards).

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 bowl games.
* Tigers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games.
* Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
* Over is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-0 in Crimson Tide last 4 games in January.

CONSENSUS: The public is backing Clemson with 60 percent of users taking the underdog Tigers. As for the total, Over is getting 60 percent of the action.