College Football Betting News and Notes Monday, September 1

ACC Report - Week 1
VegasInsider.com

Miami, Fla. at Louisville

These two sides met in the Russell Athletic Bowl last season, with the Cardinals embarrassing the Canes by a 36-9 score. Both teams are replacing long-time starting QBs, and this is now an official conference game, too. True freshman QB Brad Kaaya takes the reins under center for Miami, while head coach Bobby Petrino turns to QB Will Gardner. The new Cards QB has the benefit of WR DeVante Parker (foot) in the receiving game, although he suffered a foot injury last week and that's worth keeping an eye on. The Cards are a field-goal favorite, and they're 13-3 ATS in their past 16 conference games while Miami is 1-6 ATS in their past seven in conference.

Cardinals make ACC debut
By Sportsbook.ag

MIAMI HURRICANES (0-0) at LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (0-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Louisville -3, Total: 53.5

In a rematch of last year’s bowl game, Miami will visit a Louisville team playing its first game as a member of the ACC on Monday night.

Miami started out last year with an undefeated record through the first seven games, including winning their first three conference games before hitting a roadblock. The Hurricanes lost their confidence with a big 41-14 loss against Florida State while following that with two more lopsided defeats against Virginia Tech and Duke by a combined score of 90 to 54. After regrouping with two straight wins, they took on the Cardinals in the Russell Athletic Bowl, losing 36-9. With QB Stephen Morris graduating, true freshman Brad Kaaya will start under center and take over a Miami offense that ranked 33rd in the nation in passing (265.5 YPG). Miami also lost two offensive linemen to the NFL and that combined with a new quarterback could force some early season inconsistencies.

Louisville had its second straight double-digit-win season and fourth consecutive winning year under former head coach Charlie Strong (who is now at Texas) when they went 12-1 overall last year and 7-1 in the American Athletic Conference. A loss to UCF and a weak conference kept the team from being a National Championship contender. New head coach Bobby Petrino takes over a program that is losing star QB Teddy Bridgewater, the Cardinals' starter for three years, with averages of 3,844 yards and 29 TD over the past two seasons. Two of their top defenders (DB Calvin Pryor and DE Marcus Smith) were drafted in the first round and will be tough to replace in a defense that ranked second in the nation in scoring (12.1 PPG).

When these two teams met in the Russell Athletic Bowl last Dec. 28, Louisville was a 5.5-point favorite and proceeded to dominate the game with a 27-point victory where it outgained the ‘Canes 554-174. While the absence of Miami’s top back, HB Duke Johnson, certainly changed the game, but the Cardinals were just the better team.

Including that meeting, the programs have met twice in the past decade with Miami winning 41-38 in 2004 and Louisville rolling to a 31-7 victory two years later. As far as trends are concerned, the Hurricanes are 6-1 ATS over the past three seasons when the line is +3 to -3, while the Cardinals are 3-1 ATS in the same situation. In injury news, Louisville top WR DeVante Parker (foot) will miss the next 6-to-8 weeks.

Last year the Hurricanes maintained a solid offensive team throughout the season with 33.8 PPG (33rd in nation) and were much better in the passing game than the rush attack (160.3 YPG, 73rd in FBS). Big plays were their calling card as they gained 6.8 yards per play, placing them 11th in the nation at that category. The injury to senior QB Ryan Williams has put Brad Kayaa in the driver’s seat of the offense and the true freshman looks the part, standing 6-foot-4 and weighing 209 pounds. All signs point to the staff allowing him to be the starter for the entire season.

As a youngster, Kayaa undoubtedly needs some help, and will lean heavily on returning HB Duke Johnson who missed the final five games of the 2013 campaign with a broken ankle. Before the injury, Johnson had posted 920 rushing yards (6.3 YPC) and 6 TD while having three games of 160+ yards.

The top receiver from last year, Allen Hurns, graduated and left the pass catching in very capable hands with sophomore WR Stacy Coley who had 591 yards (17.9 YPC) and a team-leading seven touchdown catches last season as a freshman. Also returning will be TE Clive Walford (454 yards, 2 TD in 2013) and WR Herb Waters (406 yards, 5 TD in 2013) to help in the passing game. Miami’s defense was suspect last year, giving up 426.4 YPG (90th in FBS), but DB Tracy Howard (35 tackles, 4 INT in 2013) hopes to lead a group of talented defensive backs to a better showing in 2014.

Losing Teddy Bridgewater will surely decrease the Cardinals output in the passing attack, a facet of their game that ranked 16th in the nation (314.0 YPG). While their ability to move the ball through the air was elite, running the ball gave them issues as they ran for a mere 146.8 YPG (87th in FBS) while scoring 35.2 PPG (25th in nation) against a weak schedule.

Following in Bridgewater’s footsteps will be QB Will Gardner who had a small taste of playing in games last year, going 8-of-12 for 112 yards (9.3 YPA) while throwing 2 TD in mop-up roles. He has a lot going for him with three returning offensive linemen who were name to the All-AAC team last year. Also, joining him in the backfield will be HB Dominique Brown who ran for 825 yards (5.1 YPC) and 8 TD in 2013. With top WR DeVante Parker out of the picture for this contest, WR Eli Rogers (536 rec. yards, 4 TD) and TE Gerald Christian (426 rec. yds, 4 TD) will be leaned on heavily in the passing game.

The defense for this team was the difference maker in 2013, allowing the fewest yards per game in the nation (251.5 YPG) while giving up only 80.7 rushing yards per game (best in FBS). This year, those defensive numbers are sure to rise for two reasons -- the Cardinals are moving to a much more difficult conference, and they lost three full-time starters from their front seven. Giving them hope for continued success will be DB Charles Gaines who had 21 tackles and five interceptions last year

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Miami, Fl. at Louisville
August 31, 2014
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Matchup: Miami, Fl. at Louisville
Venue: Papa John's Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, Kentucky
Date: Monday, Sept. 1, 2014
Time/TV: 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Line: Louisville -3.5, Over/Under 54
Last Meeting: Dec. 28, 2013, Louisville (-5.5) 36 vs. Miami, Fl. 9

Miami will be looking to avenge an embarrassing postseason loss to Louisville when these schools square off Monday night at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium. As of early Saturday afternoon, most betting shops had U of L installed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 54. Some books had the Cardinals at minus three with a -120 price.

Bobby Petrino's team is -170 on the money line, while gamblers can take the Hurricanes to win outright for a +150 return (risk $100 to win $150).

Since leaving Louisville after going 41-9 in four seasons from 2003-2006, Petrino has left a pair of jobs under sketchy circumstances. First, while he was at U of L, he flirted with schools like Ole Miss, LSU, Notre Dame and others, not to mention the Oakland Raiders. Shortly after signing a 10-year contract with U of L, he bolted for the Atlanta Falcons.

But within months of his hiring, Michael Vick became immersed in an ugly dog-fighting scandal that led to a two-year prison sentence. Petrino took the job to coach Vick but instead of buckling down and going to work (after all, he was getting paid $5 million per year!), he reacted angrily and distanced himself from his players with his mercurial behavior. In the end, Petrino bolted with three games left in the season to take the Arkansas job, leaving owner Arthur Blank fuming because he went on national television 24 hours earlier and spoke highly of Petrino, who had assured Blank there was nothing to the Arkansas rumors before a Falcons loss on Monday Night Football.

Twenty-four hours after the MNF loss, Petrino was calling the Hogs in Fayetteville live on Sports Center.

Petrino coached his ass off at Arkansas, winning 10 games in his final season. The losses came at LSU and at Alabama, who both had to come to Fayetteville in 2012 when expectations were through the roof based on the return of QB Tyler Wilson and RB Knile Davis.

But during spring practice, a wreck on a Harley Davison motorcycle prompted one of the most scandalous one-week investigation in the history of sports in the state of Arkansas. Petrino initially told AD Jeff Long that he was alone when he crashed. A subsequent investigation revealed that Petrino was with a young co-ed who recently graduated after a volleyball career for the Razorbacks.

Additionally, she had just been given a job within the Arkansas football program ahead of more than 150 other applicants. Petrino also gave her a $20,000 signing bonus out of his own pocket, which was obviously a major breach of school rules.

Since Petrino originally lied to Long about being solo for the motorcycle wreck, in addition to hiring his mistress, the well-respected AD was left with a tough decision. But in the end, despite Petrino's success on the field, it was a no-brainer for Long to send BP packing.

Petrino spent a year away from football repairing his marriage and attempting to make things right with his family. Then Western Kentucky hired him for the 2013 campaign and he led it to an 8-4 record. The Hilltoppers actually made cash in this scenario, as the contract was built to protect the school if BP left after just one season.

Louisville had a strong four-year run under Charlie Strong, who turned down several jobs in 2013, including a lucrative offer from Tennessee, but couldn't pass on the chance to replace Mack Brown at Texas. The Cardinals went 12-1 straight up and 5-7-1 against the spread last year, smashing Miami by a 36-9 count as five-point favorites at the Russell Athletic Bowl.

But U of L lost its leader in Teddy Bridgewater, who started at QB for three seasons and finished as the school's third all-time leading passer. He went to the Minnesota Vikings in the first round, as did DE Calvin Pryor. Petrino inherits a squad returning seven starters on offense but just four on defense.

Louisville's 2013 'D' surrendered just 12.2 points per game. Former Georgia defensive coordinator Todd Grantham signed a lucrative four-year contract (guaranteed!) to become the Cards' DC. However, and nobody should be stunned by this, a recent report from SI.com revealed that Grantham and Petrino are having issues galore, including multiple shouting matches in front of the rest of the staff.

Will Gardner saw limited duty behind Bridgewater as a redshirt freshman, completing 8-of-12 passes for 112 yards and two TDs without being intercepted. He has a pair of outstanding RBs to lean on in Dominique Brown and Michael Dyer. Brown rushed for a team-best 825 yards and eight TDs last year while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. The Cards also have Michael Dyer, the MVP of Auburn's BCS Championship Game win over Oregon four years ago. But Dyer struggled with injuries last year and his status for Monday night is in question due to another injury.

U of L will be without its best offensive weapon in wide receiver DeVante Parker, who broke his foot last weekend and is expected to miss 6-8 weeks. Parker had 55 catches for 885 yards and 12 TDs in 2013.

Miami started 2013 with seven consecutive wins, only to drop three in a row by double-digit margins once star RB Duke Johnson was lost to a season-ending injury. After getting spanked by U of L in the postseason, Al Golden's squad finished 9-4 SU and 5-8 ATS.

The Hurricanes return seven starters on offense and seven on defense. However, starting safety Rayshawn Jenkins, who had 46 tackles and three interceptions in 2013, is out for the season due to back surgery. Also, UM's top two quarterbacks, Ryan Williams and Kevin Olsen, won't play against the Cardinals.

Williams is still recovering from a torn ACL last year but could be ready in a few weeks. Olsen is serving a one-game suspension. Therefore, true freshman Brad Kaaya will get the starting nod under center.

The good news is that Johnson is healthy again. Despite playing only seven games, Johnson still garnered first-team All-ACC honors with 920 rushing yards and six TDs. He averaged 6.1 YPC and has take-it-the-house speed on any given carry.

As a road underdog, UM owns a 5-4-1 spread record as a road underdog during Golden's tenure.

This key ACC showdown will kick Monday night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Game of the Day: Miami at Louisville
Covers.com

Miami Hurricanes at Louisville Cardinals (-3.5, 54)

Louisville begins the second Bobby Petrino era - and its inaugural season in the Atlantic Coast Conference - when Miami (Fla.) pays a visit on Monday night in a rematch of last season's Russell Athletic Bowl. Petrino, who coached the Cardinals from 2003-06, returned to Louisville after Charlie Strong became the head coach at Texas. However, the excitement surrounding Petrino's return was tempered somewhat by the loss of star wideout DeVante Parker, who broke his foot in practice Aug. 22 and will miss up to eight weeks.

"We're fortunate that we have a lot of experienced players," Petrino said after losing Parker, who had 55 catches for 885 yards and a school-record 12 touchdowns last season. "You're never going to replace a guy like DeVante with just one guy. You've got to do it collectively with all the weapons that we have, stepping up and making more plays." Perhaps nobody will be more affected by the Parker injury than sophomore quarterback Will Gardner, who was just named Louisville's starter last week. Miami has a challenging quarterback situation of its own as freshman Brad Kaaya takes over behind center with starter Ryan Williams sidelined with a torn ACL.

LINE HISTORY: The Cardinals opened as 2.5-point favorites and have been bet up slightly now sitting at -3.5. The total has risen slightly from 53.5 to 54.

INJURY REPORT: Miami: QB Kevin Olsen - out (suspension). Louisville: RB Michael Dyer - questionable (quadriceps)

WEATHER REPORT: There will be a nine mile per hour wind blowing towards the north end zone at Cardinal Stadium. There will also be a 20 percent chance of rain and a chance of thunderstorms.

ABOUT MIAMI (2013: 9-4, 5-8 ATS): While all eyes will be on Kaaya, the bulk of Hurricanes' heavy lifting on offense will likely be handled by junior running back Duke Johnson, who ranked third in the nation in all-purpose yards per game (174.1) before breaking his ankle in early November. “We have the potential to be great," Johnson said, “but what I’m hoping for is to finally win the Coastal Division and the Atlantic Coast Conference championship. If I need to carry the load then I will, no problem. But I believe I have enough weapons around me to where I don’t have to." Among the weapons that surround Johnson is wideout Stacy Coley, who led the team with seven receiving touchdowns as a freshman in 2013.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (2013: 12-1, 6-7 ATS): The Cardinals, who are beginning play in their third conference in as many years, are coming off a season in which they only suffered one defeat - a three-point loss to Central Florida in mid-October - and closed the campaign by routing the Hurricanes, 36-9. Star quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is now with the Minnesota Vikings, leaving Petrino to put his faith in Gardner, who was impressive in limited action last season (8-of-12, 112 yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions). On defense, Louisville has to replace seven starters but does return its two starting cornerbacks in upperclassmen Charles Gaines and Terell Floyd.

TRENDS:

* Hurricanes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Cardinals are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 conference games.
* Over is 4-0 in the Hurricanes last four conference games.
* Under is 5-1 in the Cardinals last six games overall.

CONSENSUS: The consensus is close in this matchup with just over 51 percent of wagers on the Hurricanes at +3.5. The consensus is very slightly favoring the over 54.

Miami Hurricanes vs. Louisville Cardinals: College Football Preview
Atssportsline.com

It's Monday Night football-the college edition on Labor Day. After you're finished watching baseball and U.S. Open Tennis, get ready for some more college action after a great weekend with a new ACC game from Louisville. The Cardinals have played in three different conferences over the last three seasons, while Miami seeks revenge from last year's Russell Athletic Bowl debacle.

Miami Hurricanes (9-4 SU, 4-8 ATS) at Louisville Cardinals (12-1 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Last game: (12/28/13): Louisville (-5.5) over Miami (Fla.), 36-9.

Key Betting Trends:

Miami is:
5-0 ATS last 5 in September.
1-7 ATS Last 8 overall.

Louisville is:
13-3 ATS last 16 conference games.
1-4 ATS last 5 on fieldturf.

Outlook: Louisville enters the ACC, facing a team that they destroyed in the Russell Athletic Bowl, 36-9. The Cardinals brought back former coach Bobby Petrino, to replace Charlie Strong, who left for Texas. Both teams have to replace staring quarterbacks. Will Gardner (6-5, 226) will take over for star Teddy Bridgewater, who threw for 3,970 yards with 31 TDs and four picks, before leaving after his junior season. Gardner, played in seven games last season but has big shoes to fill. On defense, Louisville has to replace seven starters does replace both corners in Charles Gaines and Terrell Floyd. They also have to replace DeVante Parker at wide receiver, who broke his foot in practice on Aug. 22. He will miss up to eight weeks. Parker caught 55 passes for 885 yards and 12 TDs last year. Sophomore Jhajuan Seales (39 receptions for 571 yards) and junior Brandon Sheperd (14 for 223 yards) will have to step up. At least the run game has Desmond Roland back. He had 881 yards and 13 TDs as a junior in 2013.

Miami struggled last season after opening 7-0 and at one point was ranked seventh in the nation. Then the lost to Florida State 41-14 and also loss star tailback Duke Johnson to ankle injury. Johnson is back after rushing for 920 yards and six touchdowns at 6.3 yards per carry in the first seven+ games. The problem is at quarterback where Ryan Williams was supposed to take over as a the senior quarterback but injured his knee in the spring. Freshman Brad Kaaya takes over and beat out senior Jake Heaps. Stacy Coley is the top target having caught 33 passes for 591 yards and seven TDs as a freshman last year. On defense, the Canes have seven starters back from a unit that struggled last year. Senior linebacker Denzel Perryman led them in tackles last year with 108 stops. The secondary does have experience but they gave up 447 passing yards against Bridgewater last season. NCAAF Odds: Louisville is a 3.5-point betting odds favorite. Total: 53.5.

Miami at Louisville Point Spread and Pick
By: Matty Simo
Sportingnews.com

A new ACC rivalry begins on Monday when two teams in the top 30 of the Don Best/Linemakers Power Ratings square off, as the 24th-rated Louisville Cardinals host the No. 27th Miami Hurricanes (8 p.m. ET, ESPN). The Cardinals enter 2014 having closed last season with a six-game winning streak, capped by a 36-9 rout of the Hurricanes in the Russell Athletic Bowl last Dec. 28.

Line: Louisville -3.5, Total: 53.5

Line movement and notes: The Cardinals opened at -2.5 and have since been bet up to -3.5, while the total has stayed steady from its opening number. This is an interesting move considering Louisville recently found out that senior wide receiver DeVante Parker will miss six to eight weeks with a broken foot that required surgery. For updated spreads and totals from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.

Cards go back to the future: Louisville got a blast from its past when former head coach Bobby Petrino decided to return to the school where he won 41 games in four seasons from 2003-06. The Cards also covered the spread in 30 of the 50 games under him. Petrino’s coaching history since then has been turbulent. He left the NFL’s Atlanta Falcons after just 13 games in 2007 for Arkansas, then got into an infamous motorcycle accident while coaching the Razorbacks that uncovered an affair with an assistant he hired. Needless to say, he is happy to be back where he enjoyed a lot of success early on.

But Petrino has a massive challenge ahead of him starting on Monday without departed star quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who stormed the Hurricanes with a career-high 447 passing yards and three touchdowns in the bowl game before getting drafted by the Minnesota Vikings. Petrino led the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers to an 8-4 record last year in his first job since getting fired at Arkansas, including a 4-3 mark in the Sun Belt that was good for a tie for third place. The Hilltoppers were also 5-7 against the spread, failing to cover five of their last six.

The injury to Parker though could be huge as well, considering the Cardinals have a new QB in redshirt sophomore Will Gardner. The 6-foot-5, 226-pound Gardner has already battled back from two torn ACLs to earn the starting job and will now be without a dangerous weapon in Parker, a projected first-round pick in the 2015 NFL Draft who totaled 55 catches for a team-high 885 yards and scored 12 touchdowns as one of Bridgewater’s tops targets last season.

“He's a tremendous player,” Petrino said. “We're fortunate with the situation we're in that we have a lot of experienced players (to fill in).

“They're all going to have to contribute. You're never going to replace a guy like DeVante with just one guy.”

‘Canes underrated according to White and Avello: The Linemakers on Sporting News’ very own Kenny White believes Miami is one of the most underrated college football teams in the country heading into this year, and Johnny Avello agrees with him. The Wynn's Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations said the action at his shop, though, is going the other way.

“I’ll tell you what then, if he feels that way about it, he should bet Miami wins 8 OVER +145 – 8 is nothing, right?” Avello asked earlier this week when told of White’s thoughts. “After opening a pick, they’re betting Miami UNDER 8 wins -165. They disagree with him, (but) I agree with him.”

White said he has already bet Miami OVER 8 wins, and he thinks this team has more potential than Louisville, possibly winning 10 or 11 games this season.

Neither team is currently ranked in the AP or USA Today Top 25 polls.

The Linemakers' lean: Both teams will be looking to get their new QBs settled, and public money will likely push this total higher. So we'll see where the number goes ahead of kickoff and make a play on the UNDER. Also, a small play on Miami should this spread grow beyond +4.

College Football Week 1

Louisville (-5) whipped Miami 36-9 in bowl game LY, outgaining them 554-174, Hurricanes struggled to come up with QB this year; a freshman beat out BYU/Kansas transfer Heaps for #1 job. Miami is 6-5-1 in last 12 games as road dogs; they've got three starters back on OL. Petrino is back as Louisville HC; Cardinals have four starters back on OL (total of 121 career starts) but a new QB- they went 15-29 vs spread at home in post-Petrino era. Now that he is back, will they dominate at home again? Louisville was +28 in turnovers last two years.

Armadillosports.com