College Football betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, September 4th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
College Football Week 1
Prepping for the option can be tough, but Tennessee has had more time, seeing as this is their opener. Vols’ offensive line has 111 returning starts, #2 experienced OL in country. Tennessee is 13-16 vs spread when favored under Jones- they’ve got 7 starters back on both sides of ball. Georgia Tech has 8 starters back on both sides, but has a new QB; Jackets are 9-5 vs spread in last 14 non-league games, 9-11 in last 20 games when getting points. Last two years, ACC teams are 14-9 vs spread when facing SEC opponents.
Armadillosports.com
Tennessee vs. Georgia Tech
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Butch Jones’s fifth season as the head coach at the University of Tennessee is a critical one for the program and his tenure at the school. Jones has posted back-to-back nine-win seasons, but he’s been unable to win the SEC East during a four-year window that can be dubbed as the Dark Ages for the division.
Tennessee finished 9-4 straight up and 5-7-1 against the spread last year, failing to win the East despite its nearly unquestioned status as the preseason favorite. As I’ve repeatedly said and written in recent months, UT’s 2016 campaign can be looked at two different ways.
On one end, the Volunteers’ 2-4 finish in their last six SEC games can partly be blamed on a wild rash of injuries that kept key players on the sidelines. There was also the double-overtime loss at Texas A&M that could’ve gone either way.
Viewed from a different angle, you could say Tennessee was lucky to have won at Georgia on a Hail Mary pass on the game’s final play. There was also the win vs. Florida thanks to a comeback from a 21-0 deficit late in the second quarter. In addition, UT captured a fortunate overtime victory vs. Appalachian State. The Mountaineers led by double digits at intermission and would’ve won in regulation if not for a missed extra point and a field goal.
Whatever the case, those in the media – and there are plenty of them – who think Jones’s job security is on solid footing are downright delusional. Jones owns a 30-21 record at UT, but he’s 14-18 in SEC play. On his watch, the Vols are winless in 11 games against Top-10 opponents and they’ve limped to a 6-15 mark versus Top-25 foes. Making matters worse, he’s already lost to Vanderbilt twice and is 0-4 against Will Muschamp.
It isn’t just the results on the field that have aggravated the rabid UT fan base. Jones maddeningly leaned on all sorts of excuses early in his tenure, constantly creating a narrative about how young and inexperienced his team was. Before his team’s road openers in his first three years, he would literally conduct interviews by explaining the stats -- percentages and all – about how many of his players would be getting on an airplane for the first time in their lives.
There was also his infamous ‘Champions of Life’ quote and his early exit from the postgame interview (before nearly all of the press core had arrived) following last year’s loss at Vandy. And now here we are on the eve of the 2017 opener with Jones seizing an opportunity to throw out a built-in excuse yet again.
“They already have an advantage on us because we were told they were inside the dome practicing with full pads for a two-hour practice (Tuesday),” Jones told the Associated Press.
Really, Butch? With his team poised to take on Georgia Tech at the brand-new Merceds-Benz Dome in Atlanta on Monday night, he’s worrying about the Yellow Jackets being able to practice at the venue? Unbelievable.
As of early Sunday night, most betting shops had Tennessee installed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 55.5. The Yellow Jackets were available on the money line for a +145 return (risk $100 to win $145).
Tennessee returns 14 of 22 starters, seven on each side of the ball. But the Vols lost their three best playmakers in quarterback Josh Dobbs, running back Alvin Kamara and WR Josh Malone. They’ve also lost a pair of starters to season-ending injuries already.
Junior OT Chance Hall and junior LB Darrin Kirkland have gone down with knee injuries. Hall had started 13 games in the last two seasons. Kirkland will especially be missed this week against Paul Johnson’s run-oriented offense. Kirkland has 17 career starts to his credit. Despite missing five games with an ankle injury last year, he recorded 45 tackles, four tackles for a loss and one sack.
Junior QB Quinten Dormady is poised to make his first career start for UT. The former four-star recruit has appeared in 11 career games, but only in mop-up duty. Dormady completed 11-of-17 passes (64.7%) last year for 148 yards. He threw for 209 yards as a freshman with one TD pass and zero interceptions.
Dormady’s favorite target will be Jauan Jennings, a junior who has started 15 career games. Jennings had 40 receptions for 580 yards and seven TDs in 2016. Senior TE Ethan Wolf has made 35 career starts. He had 21 catches for 239 yards and two TDs last season. Josh Smith, who had 13 grabs for 97 yards and one TD in ’16, is listed as ‘questionable’ due to a collarbone injury.
UT’s defense gave up 28.8 points per game in ’16. This unit has its top five tacklers back and will need to be vastly improved for the Vols to hang around in the SEC East race. Senior safety Todd Kelly had a team-high 71 tackles and two interceptions in ’16.
Georgia Tech brings back 16 of 22 starters from a 9-4 team that beat Kentucky 33-18 as a 3.5-point ‘chalk’ in the TaxSlayer Bowl. The Yellow Jackets went 3-0 against SEC foes, beating Georgia and Vanderbilt as well. They closed the ’16 campaign with four consecutive victories, including a 30-20 win at Virginia Tech as 14-point underdogs.
Johnson will turn to junior Matthew Jordan as his new starting QB. Jordan appeared in nine games last year, starting in the win at Virginia Tech. He ran for 121 yards and two TDs against the Hokies. For the season, Jordan rushed for 243 yards and six TDs while averaging 3.7 yards per carry. He completed 3-of-9 passes for 111 yards with one TD and one interception.
Johnson dismissed last year’s leading rusher from the team a few weeks ago. Dedric Mills rushed for 771 yards and 12 TDs with a 5.1 YPC average as a freshman, but he won’t be around for his sophomore season. Look for Clinton Lynch and Qua Searcy to get the most touches out of the backfield. Lynch ran for 415 yards and two TDs with an 11.2 YPC average in ’16, while Searcy had 273 rushing yards and two scores. Lynch also had 16 receptions for 490 yards and six TDs.
Georgia Tech’s defense gave up 24.5 PPG last year and brings back eight starters. Senior safety Corey Griffin registered 82 tackles, four TFL’s, one sack, three passes broken up and two interceptions.
These schools haven’t met since 1987 when the Yellow Jackets won a 29-15 decision.
Even though the game is being played in Atlanta, gamblers shouldn’t look at this as a road game for the Vols. They’ll probably have just as many fans in attendance as the Yellow Jackets.
Monday's NCAAF Game of the Day: Tennessee vs Georgia Tech
Covers.com
Tennessee Volunteers vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+3.5, 55.5)
Tennessee and Georgia Tech will meet in brand-new Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta for Monday’s season opener, but who will line up at quarterback for both teams remains unknown - at least publicly. Tennessee coach Butch Jones and Yellow Jackets coach Paul Johnson have not announced who will start under center, as the No. 24 Volunteers and Georgia Tech begin their campaigns looking to replace long-time starting quarterbacks.
The Volunteers have junior Quinten Dormady, a backup the last two years, and redshirt freshman Jarrett Guarantano battling to replace Joshua Dobbs. “We have a pretty good idea who the quarterback will be for us, and we have a pretty good idea who the quarterback will be for them as well,” Jones told reporters this week. The Yellow Jackets most likely will go with junior Matthew Jordan, who played at times while former starter Justin Thomas was injured last season, but could go with junior TaQuon Marshall or a pair of redshirt freshmen. “We may play all four in the first game,” Johnson told reporters. “Who knows?”
LINE HISTORY: Tenessee opened as 6-point favorites but Georgia Tech money has pushed that number down to 3.5. The total hit the betting boards at 61 and has dropped down to 55.5. Follow the complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Tennessee - WR J. Smith (Probable, Shoulder), DB S. Wiggins (Questionable, Hip), DL S. Tuttle (Questionable, Knee), LB D. Kirkland Jr. (Out For Season, Knee), OL D. Richmond (Elig Sept 9, Suspension), WR J. Jones (Out For Season, Knee), OL C. Hall (Out For Season, Knee).
Georgia Tech - RB C. Lynch (Questionable, Undisclosed), LB D. Curry (Out, Lower Body), OL A. Marshall (Out, Lower Body).
WEATHER REPORT: Dome. Mercedes-Benz Stadium will, eventually be a retractable roofed stadium but the roof opening mechanism will not be ready until later in the year.
ABOUT TENNESSEE (2016: 9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS, 9-4 O/U): The Volunteers look to replace most of their offensive firepower from last season, but return running back John Kelly (630 yards rushing in 2016) and receiver Jauan Jennings (seven receiving touchdowns). Dormady played in four games last season, completing 11-of-17 passes for 148 yards. Defensively, Tennessee brings back its top four linebackers from a season ago and an experienced secondary.
ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (2016: 9-4 SU, 7-4-1 ATS, 6-5-1 O/U): The Yellow Jackets will deploy the triple-option offense, but lost leading rusher Dedrick Mills after he was dismissed from the program in August for violating team rules. Jordan directed an upset at Virginia Tech last season and rushed for six touchdowns in nine games, attempting just nine passes on the season, but does have experienced running backs in Clinton Lynch (905 all-purpose yards) and J.J Green. Georgia Tech brings back five defensive backs who combined for eight interceptions a season ago.
TRENDS:
* Volunteers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
* Yellow Jackets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. SEC.
* Over is 8-0 in Volunteers last 8 neutral site games.
* Under is 4-0-1 in Yellow Jackets last 5 games in September.
CONSENSUS: The Volunteers are picking up 57 percent of the action and the Over is picking up 61 percent of the totals wagers.
Tennessee faces Georgia Tech
By: StatFox.com
Two nine-win teams from a year ago look for a signature win to open the season as #25 Tennessee battles Georgia Tech.
Tennessee didn’t live up to their preseason top-10 ranking last season, finishing 9-4 with upset losses to South Carolina and Vanderbilt. However, for the third-straight year head coach Butch Jones won a bowl game, toppling Nebraska 38-24 in the Music City Bowl. The Vols have to replace top producers at QB, RB and WR, while the defense has a great deal of talent but was awful more often than not in 2016. Head coach Paul Johnson has brought Georgia Tech to eight bowl games in nine years, and ended 2016 with a bang. After a rocky 3-3 start, the Yellow Jackets finished with a 9-4 record by winning their last four games, including upsets at Virginia Tech and at Georgia, as well as a 33-18 win over Kentucky in the TaxSlayer Bowl. Johnson’s triple-option attack lost its three top runners from last year, but running back talent remains and the offensive line should be solid. The defense has work to do up front, but brings back its secondary in full. These schools haven’t played each other since 1987. Georgia Tech is 5-1 SU & ATS against the SEC since 2014, but have a 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS record in games with a line between -4 and +4 over the past two seasons. Tennessee is 5-0 SU & ATS in neutral field games under Jones.
Tennessee’s offense scored 34 or more points nine times last year and averaged 36.4 points per game (24th in the nation), but must replace most of their skill position production. Joshua Dobbs started 35 games at QB for Tennessee – now that he’s in the NFL, pocket-passer Quinten Dormady and dual-threat Jarrett Guarantano are vying for playing time. True freshman OG Trey Smith was the No. 1 recruit in the country last year, and he joins an experienced and deep O-line that should be a strength for the Vols. RB John Kelly (630 rushing yards, 5 TD, 6.4 yards per carry) ascends into a starting role as the only returning player who ran for more than 60 yards last season. WR Jauan Jennings (40 receptions, 580 yards, 7 TD) and TE Ethan Wolf (22 receptions, 247 yards) are the top targets in the passing game. Tennessee’s defense allowed 449 yards per game (95th in FBS) last season, and gave up more than 350 rushing yards four times. The defensive line has some depth, and former No. 1 junior college recruit DE Jonathan Kongbo is expected to have a breakout season after coming off the bench last year. LB Darrin Kirkland (111 total tackles, 4 sacks, 11.5 TFL in 21 career games), a 2015 All-SEC Freshman Team selection, will anchor the second level after missing five games with an ankle injury. Three starters return to a secondary that should be the strength of UT’s defense. S Todd Kelly (67 total tackles, 2 INT), S Micah Abernathy (66 total tackles, 2 INT, 3 TFL) and versatile nickelback Rashaan Gaulden (63 total tackles, 6 TFL) were the top three tacklers on the team last season.
Georgia Tech’s triple option racked up 258 rushing yards per game (9th in FBS) last year, but it was the second-lowest mark in Paul Johnson’s nine seasons as head coach. Three-year starter QB Justin Thomas and top RBs Dedrick Mills and Marcus Marshall are gone, leaving a 1,999-yard, 24-TD void in the backfield. Johnson is unlikely to name a starter under center before kickoff. A-Back Clinton Lynch was phenomenal in a limited role last season (905 yards from scrimmage, 8 TD, 11.2 yards per carry, 30.6 yards per reception) and should be the focus of the offense, while the B-Back job is still up for grabs with a stable of unproven-but-promising options for Johnson to choose from. The offensive line gelled well late last season and should be able to steamroll most opponents. Leading WRs Ricky Jeune (25 receptions, 427 yards) and Brad Stewart (19 receptions, 382 yards) both return. The Yellow Jackets defense did well to hold opponents to 24.5 points per game (39th in FBS) last season. Their pass rush was often non-existent, though DE Anree Saint-Amour (4 sacks, 4 TFL) has a chance take carve out a larger role after serving as situational substitute pass-rusher last season. DE KeShaun Freeman (4 TFL, 9 QB hurries) should also help improve the defensive front in his fourth season as a starter. Middle LB Brant Mitchell (71 total tackles, 3 TFL) returns to his starting role, and flashed big-play ability with 28 total tackles and two INT in the Ramblin’ Wreck’s final three regular-season games. The entire secondary remains intact, and could be a shutdown unit if the pass-rush improves. Twin brother CBs Lance and Lawrence Austin each had three INTs last season, and safeties Corey Griffin (82 total tackles, 5 TFL) and A.J. Gray (72 total tackles, 3.5 TFL) both have solid coverage skills and don’t mind coming into the box to deliver hits.
Monday's College Football Best Bet
Covers.com
Tennessee vs. Georgia Tech
Odds: Tennessee (-3.5); Total 55.5
The final game of the first week of full college football action kicks off tonight as the NCAA likes to try and grab that MNF audience a week before the NFL season starts.
It's a great move for college football as more eyes will definitely be on this stand alone game, and in turn, more betting action will surely follow. Tonight's game is another primetime showdown between the SEC and ACC, and although a Tennessee/Georgia Tech tilt doesn't have anywhere near the potential impact on the college football landscape that Alabama/Florida State did on Saturday night, the overall betting handle could be very similar.
It's another season of high expectations for a Tennessee program that's failed to live up to them in recent years, and coming out of the gate to face Georgia Tech's triple-option attack is a unique challenge in Week 1.
Tennessee enters 2017 with the 25th ranking in the AP poll but they've been in a similar position in year's past and can never seem to do much better than a marginal Bowl appearance in late-December. Last year it was three weeks of consecutive losses (Texas A&M, Alabama, South Carolina) in early October that derailed their campaign, and sadly for Volunteers fans that's a familiar refrain over the years.
This program can never seem to put it all together for 12+ weeks and I've got a tough time believing 2017 will be any different. They've got to go to Alabama this year for a game in late-October, and games against Florida, Georgia, Missouri, and LSU won't be easy either.
But this opener will be nothing like any of those as they'll be dealing with Georgia Tech's triple-option and there have been many a good program that fall victim to the Yellow Jackets unique style of play.
The biggest advantage triple-option programs generally have is the notion that they are extremely proficient at what they do, and opponents aren't that familiar with it because it's quite rare. Unless you are a school that sees Georgia Tech on a yearly basis, or a service academy rival (Air Force, Army, Navy), the triple-option can throw a defense for a loop and a SU loss that schools never thought was coming gets put in the standings.
However, that advantage usually works it's best for teams like Georgia Tech in any week but Week 1, simply because there just isn't enough time in a single week for opponents to sufficiently prepare for the triple-option. It's such a one-off thing that coaches have a tough time getting their players to understand the gap integrity and responsibilities each player has on every play, and when there are holes left, you'd better believe strong triple-option teams will exploit them.
All of those concerns don't particularly apply to Tennessee tonight as they've had all summer to work on stopping the triple-option attack and that should work decidedly in their favor tonight. Yes, there will be some miscues that Georgia Tech will take advantage of, but all in all, this Tennessee team has much more talent on the field from top to bottom on both sides of the ball, and should easily come out on top should they execute.
The biggest advantage Georgia Tech typically has is rendered obsolete in Week 1, and the Volunteers know that with the schedule they've got this year, they've got to come out of the gates hot. The neutral site negates any other potential advantage Georgia Tech would have as the home side, and Tennessee's 6-0 ATS run at neutral sites suggests we will see the good Tennessee Volunteers program show up.
Just like Saturday's SEC/ACC game played at the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, the favorite will come away with the SU and ATS victory and allow the SEC to proclaim dominance over the ACC Conference – at least for now.
Best Bet: Tennessee -3.5