OLE MISS (10 - 3) vs. FLORIDA ST (10 - 3) - 9/5/2016, 8:00 PM
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Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
MISSISSIPPI vs. FLORIDA STATE
Mississippi is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Mississippi is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Florida State's last 12 games
Florida State is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games
OLE Miss at Florida State
Old Miss: 6-1 ATS in the first month of the season
Florida St: 1-4 ATS on a neutral field where the total is between 56.5 and 63
College Football Week 1
Florida State QB Maguire (foot) is out here; redshirt freshman Francois is likely starter here. Seminoles have 16 starters back, with 10 back on offense- they’re 36-28-1 as favorites under Fisher. Ole Miss is 14-5-1 vs spread in last 20 non-SEC games, 11-4 in last 15 tries as an underdog, 6-1 in neutral field games; Rebels lost 6 starters on both sides of ball- their senior QB has 13 starts.
Armadillosports.com
ACC Report - Week 1
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Mississippi vs. Florida State
Last, but certainly not least, the retooled Ole Miss Rebels head to Orlando to battle the Florida State Seminoles in the final game of the opening weekend of action. Mississippi is looking to reload after losing WR Laquon Treadwell, OT Laremy Tunsil and DE Robert Nkemdiche, three players who helped Hotty Toddy become a household hashtag on Twitter over the past couple of seasons in Oxford. They still have QB Chad Kelly, an NFL prospect. However, he is behind an inexperienced offensive line facing a Florida State front which is all likely to be playing on Sundays at some point. The quarterback situation in Tallahassee is a lot less experience, as Deondre Francois takes the reins of Jimbo Fisher's offense. To make his transition a lot more comfortable, he has the luxury of handing off to RB Dalvin Cook early and often. The Seminoles might get off to a slow start as their offense takes time to jell, but Cook will be the difference in this one. However, Ole Miss is 7-1-1 ATS in their past nine neutral-site games, while FSU is 0-5 ATS in their past five on a neutral field. That might be why FSU opened as a 6 1/2-point favorite and the line has been bet down to the neighbor of -4 to -4 1/2.
Ole Miss vs. Florida State
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Ole Miss and Florida State will collide Monday night at the Florida Citrus Bowl in Orlando. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
As of early Sunday night, most betting shops had FSU installed as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 59 points. The Rebels were +180 on the money line (risk $100 to win $180). For first-half wagers, the Seminoles were favored by three with a total of 29.5.
FSU returns 11 starters on offense and six on defense. However, one of those starters, QB Sean Maguire, is listed as ‘doubtful’ due to a foot injury sustained in early August. Therefore, redshirt freshman Deondre Francois will get the starting nod at QB.
Francois has one of the nation’s top offensive lines in front of him one of the country’s premier running backs behind him. Dalvin Cook garnered first-team All-American honors last season despite dealing with a nagging hamstring injury for a decent chunk of the year. Cook produced 1,691 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns while averaging 7.4 yards per carry. Cook added 24 receptions for 224 yards and one TD.
All of the WRs are back, including the trio of Travis Rudolph, Kermit Whitfield and Jesus Wilson. Rudolph is the best of the bunch, hauling in 59 receptions for 916 yards and seven TDs. Whitfield had 57 catches for 798 yards and six TDs last year, while Wilson brought down 58 balls for 622 yards and three TDs.
FSU’s defense gave up 17.5 points per game in ’15. This unit is led by sophomore strong safety Derwin James, who was selected to the Freshman All-American team after recording 91 tackles, 4.5 sacks, five tackles behind the line and three QB hurries. Senior DE DeMarcus Walker was a first-team All-ACC selection last year when he had 58 tackles, 10.5 sacks, five tackles behind the line, five passes broken up, four QB hurries and one interception.
Jimbo Fisher’s team went 10-3 straight up and 8-5 against the spread in ’15. After racing out to a 6-0 start, the ‘Noles dropped a 22-16 decision at Ga. Tech. The Yellow Jackets blocked a potential game-winning field goal by FSU on the final play of regulation. The kick still went about 20 yards down the field, but a Ga. Tech player scooped it up, caught a couple of good blocks and took it the house for a walk-off TD.
FSU lost again a few weeks later at Clemson, 23-13. Fisher’s squad won its last three regular-season games, which included a 27-2 win at Florida. That run earned the ‘Noles an invite to the Peach Bowl in Atlanta at the Ga. Dome. The result was a 38-24 loss to Houston as a seven-point ‘chalk.’
Ole Miss also finished ’15 with a 10-3 record, going 9-4 ATS. The Rebels started 4-0, including a second straight win over Alabama. They were ranked third in the nation going into Gainesville to face an undefeated Florida team that was ranked No. 25. The Gators jumped all over Ole Miss and dominated from start to finish in a 38-10 victory as 6.5-point home underdogs.
Despite taking another loss to Memphis, Hugh Freeze’s club remained in control of its destiny to win the SEC West and earn a trip to the SEC Championship Game for the first time in school history. But then Arkansas came to Oxford in November.
Ole Miss appeared poised to win the game when Arkansas TE Hunter Henry was going down short of the first-down marker on a 4th-and-25 play in overtime. However, Henry lateraled the ball back and across the field before his knee hit the ground. The ball took a perfect bounce and landed in RB Alex Collins’s hands. He broke a tackle and got a block and then wisely waited for another block before getting the first down in miraculous fashion. Moments later, a face mask penalty kept the Razorbacks’ drive alive and they eventually scored and Brandon Allen’s three-yard run on the two-point conversion gave the Hogs a remarkable 53-52 win.
But Ole Miss would respond with two outstanding wins vs. LSU (38-17) at home and at Mississippi State (38-27) to earn its first Sugar Bowl berth in decades. The Rebels blasted Oklahoma State 48-20 as 8.5-point favorites in New Orleans.
Then on the night of the NFL Draft’s first round, an event that should’ve been a celebration of the accomplishments of Freeze’s tenure while three Rebels were selected instead turned into an embarrassing fiasco. Just minutes before the draft started, Laramy Tunsil’s Instagram account was hacked and a video of Tunsil smoking weed with a gas mask on appeared. Then a text-message exchange between Tunsil and a member of Freeze’s staff was posted to Tunsil’s social-media accounts. The content of the texts revolved around cash payments to Tunsil.
Then during the post-draft interview live on national television, Tunsil was asked about the social-media posts and if it was true that Ole Miss coaches paid him. To this he responded, “I would have to say yes.”
Since then, an NCAA investigation has hovered over the program and all of Oxford. The investigation isn’t complete, so it doesn’t appear any potential sanctions will harm this 2016 team. But it has been a major distraction and incredible public-relations nightmare.
With that said, I would think the Ole Miss players are thrilled to just get on the field and be able to put a tumultuous offseason in the rearview mirror. Although Tunsil, WR Laquon Treadwell and DE Robert Nkemdiche are all gone after being first-round picks, there’s still plenty of talent remaining on the roster.
Chad ‘Swag’ Kelly is back for his senior year after producing a record-breaking season in ’15. Kelly completed 65.1 percent of his passes for 4,042 yards with a 31/13 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also rushed for 500 yards and 10 TDs.
Kelly has one of the SEC’s best TEs in Evan Engram, who had 38 catches for 464 yards and two TDs last season. He has two other veterans to target in Quincy Adeboyejo and Damore’ea Stringfellow. Adeboyejo had 38 receptions for 604 yards and seven TDs in ’15, while Stringfellow had 36 grabs for 503 yards and five TDs.
Leading rusher Jaylen Walton is gone, but the Rebels are set at RB with a pair of experienced players in Akeem Judd and Eugene Brazley. Judd and Brazley had YPC averages of 5.5 and 10.1, respectively.
Ole Miss returns five starters on offense and five on defense. The ’15 ‘D’ allowed 22.6 PPG. Three of the top four tacklers have departed, but the leading tackler is back. That would be LB DeMarquis Gates, who had 76 tackles. Marquis Haynes was a second-team All-SEC selection thanks to 43 tackles, 10 sacks, 6.5 tackles behind the line and eight QB hurries. DBs Tony Bridges and Tony[ Conner are other notable playmakers for this unit.
Senior starting DE Fadol Brown is listed as ‘questionable vs. FSU due to a foot injury. Brown had 32 tackles, one sack, 3.5 tackles behind the line and 10 QB hurries in ’15.
Ole Miss played a neutral-field game for its opener two seasons ago. The Rebels beat Boise State by a 35-13 count as a 10-point favorite at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta.
FSU did the same for its opener in ’14, capturing a 37-31 win over Oklahoma State as an 18.5-point ‘chalk’ at Jerry World in Arlington, TX. Since 1991, the ‘Noles are 7-0 in season opener played at neutral sites.
During Fisher’s six-year tenure, FSU has won eight of 11 games on a neutral field, but it has limped to a 4-7 spread record. In fact, the ‘Noles have failed to cover the number in four consecutive neutral-site contests.
Meanwhile, Ole Miss owns a 4-1 record both SU and ATS in five games at a neutral venue during Freeze’s five-year tenure.
FSU’s starting center Alec Eberle is ‘questionable’ due to recent issues with migraine headaches.
NCAAF Game of the Day: Ole Miss vs. Florida State
By Covers.com
No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 4 Florida State Seminoles (-4.5, 60)
A pair of Heisman Trophy candidates and two ranked teams will be on display when Ole Miss takes on Florida State in their season opener at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla., on Monday. Fourth-ranked Florida State returns a talented group on both sides of the ball led by junior running back Dalvin Cook, and senior quarterback Chad Kelly is the key to unlock a successful season for No. 12 Ole Miss.
Cook rushed for a school-record 1,691 yards and 19 touchdowns last year for the Seminoles, who introduce a new starting quarterback in freshman and Orlando native Deondre Francois. Both will have the support of an experienced offensive line and all-ACC tackle Roderick Johnson told the Tampa Bay Times of Cook: “His attitude’s the same as last year and that’s to be the greatest of all time.” Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher calls Kelly “a competitor” and the 6-2, 224-pounder comes to Orlando after a breakout season in which he threw for 4,042 yards and 31 touchdowns while rushing for another 500 and 10 scores. Kelly has the weapons around him to match those numbers and will be tested by one of top defenses the Rebels will face all season.
LINE HISTORY: Florida State opened this matchup of ranked teams as 6.5-point chalk, but early on the betting action was on Ole Miss. The line moved to FSU -6 and got as low as -4, before money started coming back on the Seminoles, bringing the line back to the current number of FSU -4.5.
The total has also seen a fair amount of action. The number opened at 57 and since then bettors have been hammering the Over, bringing the number all the way up to 60. Check out the complete line history here.
WEATHER REPORT: It will be partly cloudy with a very slight 10 percent chance of rain during the game. There will also be a seven to nine mile per hour wind blowing towards the southwest corner of the stadium.
INJURY REPORT:
Ole Miss - DE F. Brown (probable Monday, foot), WR M. Pack (questionable Monday, thumb), OL J. Liggins (out Monday).
Florida State - QB S. Maguire (probable Monday, foot), DB D. James (probable Monday, foot), WR J. Wilson (probable Monday, foot), DB L. Taylor (probable Monday, thigh), OL A. Eberle (probable Monday, concussion), WR N. Muray (probable Monday, concussion), WR T. Rudolph (probable Monday, hamstring), WR G. Campbell (questionable Monday, groin), DB N. Andrews (questionable Monday, hamstring), DT A. Torres (doubtful Monday, foot), OL K. Are (doutbful Monday, concussion), DT D. Taylor II (doubtful Monday, shoulder).
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We had Florida State at -4.5 Friday afternoon and with the public backing the favorite, we have since moved to Florida St. -6 with 78 percent of the action to cover (as of Sunday afternoon). The Total has also moved on this game, going from 58.5 to 59, with just under 60 percent of the action on the Over." - Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag.
ABOUT OLE MISS (2015: 10-3): One concern for the Rebels this season is on their offensive line, which is expected to include three sophomore starters. Senior Akeem Judd and freshman Eric Swinney lead the rushing attack with Jordan Wilkins (academics) lost for the season and Kelly has a deep receiving corps with wideouts Quincy Adeboyejo and Damore’ea Stringfellow along with tight end Evan Engram owning the most experience. Defensive end Marquis Haynes (10 sacks last year) and safety Tony Conner key the other side of the ball where Ole Miss returns five starters.
ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (2015: 10-3): Francois becomes the fourth freshman to start an opener at quarterback for the Seminoles in their history, after incumbent Sean Maguire (foot) was lost for 4-to-6 weeks, and will make it in his home town. Francois has an offensive line group with a combined 66 starts, one of the nation’s top running backs and an experienced receiving corps that is led by Travis Rudolph (59 catches, 916 yards, seven touchdowns) to help. Defensive end DeMarcus Walker (10½ sacks in 2015) and safety Derwin James (91 tackles, 4½ sacks) are stalwarts for what could be one of the country’s top defenses.
TRENDS:
* Ole Miss is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games in September.
* Florida State ended last season going 5-1 ATS in its final six games.
* Under is 22-6 in Ole Miss' last 28 games overall.
* Under is 15-5 in Florida State's last 22 versus SEC opponents.
CONSENSUS: Bettors are strongly backing the favorite in this matchup, with 68 percent of wagers on Florida State. The action on the total is much more even, with 51 percent of bettors giving the slight edge to the Over.
College Football Week
Florida State QB Maguire (foot) is out here; redshirt freshman Francois is likely starter here. Seminoles have 16 starters back, with 10 back on offense- they’re 36-28-1 as favorites under Fisher. Ole Miss is 14-5-1 vs spread in last 20 non-SEC games, 11-4 in last 15 tries as an underdog, 6-1 in neutral field games; Rebels lost 6 starters on both sides of ball- their senior QB has 13 starts. Last 5+ years, SEC teams are 27-19 vs spread when facing an ACC squad. SEC teams are 4-7 vs spread this weekend; ACC teams are 1-3.
Armadillosports.com
College Football Week 1
Florida State QB Maguire (foot) is out here; redshirt freshman Francois is likely starter here. Seminoles have 16 starters back, with 10 back on offense- they’re 36-28-1 as favorites under Fisher. Ole Miss is 14-5-1 vs spread in last 20 non-SEC games, 11-4 in last 15 tries as an underdog, 6-1 in neutral field games; Rebels lost 6 starters on both sides of ball- their senior QB has 13 starts. Last 5+ years, SEC teams are 27-19 vs spread when facing an ACC squad. SEC teams are 4-7 vs spread this weekend; ACC teams are 1-3.
Armadillosports.com