College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday 12/15

New Mexico Bowl Preview
By Matt Fargo
Playbook.com

Nevada Wolfpack vs. Arizona Wildcats (-9.5/75)

How Nevada got here

The Wolfpack earned a bowl berth very early thanks to a 6-1 start but things took a turn for the worse following a loss against San Diego St. in overtime which triggered a disappointing 1-4 finish. Nevada closed the regular season hoping for some momentum with a win over Boise St. but it was not meant to be as it lost 27-21 in what could be the final meeting between the two rivals. This is definitely not the bowl game the Wolfpack were hoping for but playing against a BCS Conference team should have it motivated along with the fact the 16 seniors want to go out winners.

How Arizona got here

Arizona did not exactly end the regular season very strong as it lost to rival Arizona St. at home. The Wildcats won the yardage battle 522-460 but four turnovers did them in. One positive that can be taken out of the season is that after starting 0-3 in the Pac 12, Arizona went on to finish 4-2 so there was no giving up. Still, the Wildcats are not thrilled about being here as they were hoping for a Sun Bowl or a Las Vegas Bowl bid. Making things tougher is that there is a quick turnaround with it being the first bowl game and it happens to come right at the end of finals week.

Interesting Stat

Arizona and Nevada are two of just three teams in the country that average at least 230 rushing yards and 240 passing yards.

Breakdown

This is the third highest total of the 35 bowl games so a shootout is certainly a possibility. Overall Arizona is seventh in total offense and 17th in scoring offense while Nevada is 11th in total offense and 20th in scoring offense. Can the defenses stop the opponents? Considering the Wildcats are 116th in total defense and 100th in scoring defense and the Wolfpack are 86th and 94th respectively, it doesn't look that way. Arizona may be getting a little too much respect here as the line is up to -10 in a lot of places.

Trending

Arizona is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg.

Nevada is 0-7 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 63 this season.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Preview
By Matt Fargo
Playbook.com

Toledo Rockets vs. Utah St. Aggies (-10/57.5)

How Toledo got here

Toledo was one of three MAC teams that were ranked at some point this season. After an eight-game winning streak, the Rockets moved into the top 25 but it was short-lived as they lost to Ball St. at home followed by another loss at Northern Illinois. Toledo closed the season with an unimpressive win over 1-11 Akron so it isn't exactly entering the postseason on a high note. The Rockets were picked as preseason MAC favorites so going from a possible championship to playing a bowl game in Idaho may be a bit of a downer. The Rockets possess an offense that is potent but a defense that is suspect.

How Utah St. got here

Utah St. came into the season with high expectations and it did not disappoint as it went 10-2 and that could have been even better. The Aggies lost at Wisconsin by two points and at BYU by three points while every victory was by at least a touchdown. They come in riding a six-game winning streak so they have plenty of momentum and with the short turnaround from the final game to the bowl game, that momentum should not be lost. Utah St. has a rather large intangible on its side as it played in this bowl last year and lost to Ohio in the final seconds so it will be out to make up for that disappointment.

Interesting Stat

Utah St. is ranked in the top three in the WAC in all 17 major statistical categories kept by the NCAA while Toledo is ranked third or higher in only one, total offense.

Breakdown

The Aggies are one of the hotter teams in the country not many people may know about as they have won 15 of their last 18 games going back to last season. They do it with both offense and defense as Utah St. has scored 38 or more points in six straight games while scoring 31 or more points in 9 of 12 on the season. Toledo is 105th in total defense and should show little resistance. The Rockets get it done with offense as they are 28th overall and 99th in scoring but the numbers have slipped recently. Toledo will not find it easy against a Utah St. defense ranked 15th overall and eighth in scoring.

Trending

Toledo is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.

Utah St. is 6-0 ATS after a win by 21 or more points this season.

New Mexico Bowl

Arizona won four of last six games after 54-48 OT loss at Stanford Oct. 6; Wildcats played six games this year (3-3) where losing team scored 31+ points; so did Nevada (2-4). Wolf Pack lost four of last five games, with only win over New Mexico team (on this field) that didn't complete a pass (0-2); they are 2-1 as underdogs this year, upsetting Pac-12's Cal 31-24 (+10). Nevada lost four of last five bowls, including 23-0 loss in this game to host Lobos five years ago; dogs covered their last four bowls. Arizona went 10 years with no bowls, but is bowling now for 4th time in last five years; they lost last two bowls, in ’09-‘10, 33-0/36-10. Seven of last eight Arizona games, four of last six Nevada games went over the total. Pac-12 non-conference favorites are 4-11 against spread. MWC underdogs are 16-5.

Idaho Potato Bowl

Utah State is 10-2, losing 16-14 (+14) at Wisconsin, 6-3 (+6.5) at BYU; Aggies are 10-1 vs spread this year; only non-cover was 45-9 win as a 38-point favorite- they won 49-27 at San Jose, 48-41ot at La Tech, two bowl teams. Toledo is 5-0 vs spread as an underdog this year- they lost opener in OT at Arizona, then won eight games in row, then gave up 34-31 points in losses to Ball State/Northern Illinois. Rockets played couple of exciting bowls last two years, losing 34-32 in ’10, winning 42-41 LY; average total in their last five bowls is 66.6. Utah State lost Potato Bowl 24-23 LY, in their first bowl since 1997. WAC favorites are 5-5 against spread out of conference; MAC underdogs are 17-15.

Armadillosports.com

New Mexico Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Arizona Wildcats (-9.5, 75.5)

Gildan New Mexico Bowl Storylines

1. The game will feature two of the nation's top four runners in Arizona sophomore Ka'Deem Carey (second) and Nevada junior Stefphon Jefferson (fourth). Carey’s 1,757 rushing yards is already a single-season school record while Jefferson stands at 1,703 yards and needs 30 to break the Wolf Pack’s single-season mark.

2. The stage is set for both runners to have memorable games. Nevada, which ranks seventh in the country in rushing and 20th in scoring, will square off against Arizona’s 89th-ranked rush defense and 103rd scoring defense. Similarly, the Wildcats’ ground game and scoring offense – both ranked 17th in the nation – will face the Wolf Pack’s 112th-ranked rush defense and 95th-ranked scoring defense.

3. Two of college football’s most innovative coaches will be matching wits for the first time. Arizona’s Rich Rodriguez is considered as a pioneer of a no-huddle, run-oriented version of the spread offense while Nevada’s Chris Ault is credited as the creator of the “Pistol” offense that has only accentuated the athletic ability of quarterbacks such as Colin Kaepernick since he began using it in 2005.

LINE: Arizona opened as an 8-point favorite and has been bet up as high as -10. The total has climbed from 75 to 75.5.

WEATHER: There is a 9 percent chance of snow for University Stadium and temperatures will dip into the high 30s. Winds are expected to blow west at 8 mph.

TRENDS:

* Wolf Pack are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
* Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. MWC.
* Under is 5-1 in Wolf Pack's last six Bowl games.
* Over is 7-1 in Wildcats' last eight games overall.

ABOUT NEVADA (7-5, 4-4 Mountain West, 3-9 ATS): Unlike the “Pistol” attack that saw the quarterback (Kaepernick) overshadow the running back (Vai Taua) two years ago, Jefferson has been the main beneficiary this season. But sophomore quarterback Cody Fajardo certainly did his best impression of Kaepernick in 2012, throwing for 2,530 yards and 17 touchdowns while running for 981 yards and 11 more scores. However, the Wolf Pack – and the defense in particular – have been in a tailspin since a 6-1 start as they went 0-4 against the top four teams in their conference over the second half of the schedule. In those four losses, Nevada surrendered an average of 277 rushing yards, 471 total yards and 41.5 points.

ABOUT ARIZONA (7-5, 4-5 Pac-12, 6-6 ATS): While the running game is the primary focus, the passing game is hardly without playmakers. Sophomore receiver Austin Hill posted 1,189 receiving yards and nine receiving touchdowns – the fourth and seventh-best single-season totals in school history, respectively – while Matt Scott’s 3,238 passing yards is the third-highest mark for a Wildcats quarterback in a season. Despite all the offensive success and surprising wins over the likes of Oklahoma State and USC, this is the same team that scored a combined 10 points in losses to Oregon and UCLA. Rodriguez’s seven wins in his rookie campaign were the most by an Arizona coach in his first season since Jim Young led the Wildcats to an 8-3 mark in 1973.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Toledo Rockets vs. Utah State Aggies (-10, 58.5)

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Storylines

1. Toledo’s talented running back David Fluellen and quarterback Terrance Owens both missed the last regular-season game on Nov. 20 against Akron with ankle injuries, but will have almost four weeks to recover.

2. Utah State set a school record for victories this season, won an outright conference title for the first time since 1936 by finishing 6-0 in the Western Athletic Conference and tries to win its first bowl game since 1993.

3. Toledo averages 32.9 points and 456.1 yards (28th in the nation), while 20th-ranked Utah State is eighth in the nation in scoring defense (15.4) and 15th in total defense.

LINE: Utah State opened as low as -8 and has been bet up to as high as -10.5. The total has moved from 57.5 to 58.5.

WEATHER: Snow is in the forecast for Boise, with an 18 percent chance of precipitation. Temperatures will be in the low 30s.

TRENDS:

* Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. WAC.
* Aggies are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 non-conference games.
* Under is 5-0 in Rockets' last five games overall.
* Under is 6-0 in Aggies' last six non-conference games.

ABOUT TOLEDO (9-3, 6-2 MAC, 7-5 ATS): The Rockets hope to have Fluellen and Owens back for Utah State, although senior quarterback Austin Dantin threw for five touchdowns and David Pasquale rushed for 93 yards in the 35-23 victory over Akron to end the regular season. The versatile Fluellen fuels the Rockets' offense, averaging 132.7 yards with 13 touchdowns. Owens, who has completed 62.8 percent of his passes and averaged 243.4 yards through the air, has also thrown for 14 scores. Bernard Reedy is the top target with 82 receptions for 1,051 yards. The Rockets will need some big plays from their defense, which has 17 interceptions but has allowed an average of 27.3 points. Toledo edged Air Force 42-41 in the Military Bowl last year to improve its bowl record to 8-4.

ABOUT UTAH STATE (10-2, 6-0 WAC, 10-1-1 ATS): The Aggies come into the game with six straight victories and have won 15 of their last 18 overall. Utah State lost 24-23 in the Potato Bowl last year to Toledo’s MAC rival Ohio and its two defeats this season have come by a combined five points to Wisconsin (16-14) and Brigham Young (6-3). The Aggies are the only team in the nation not to allow a touchdown in the first quarter. Utah State’s offense has also produced, averaging more than 30 points led by quarterback Chuckie Keeton. The sophomore has completed 67.6 percent of his passes, thrown for 27 touchdowns and rushed for more than 500 yards. Senior running back Kerwynn Williams leads the team in rushing (1,277 yards) and receiving (663), while scoring 17 times. The Aggies are 1-6 in bowls.

Saturday's Bowl Tips
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

The bowl season will kick off Saturday with a pair of games. In Albuquerque at the New Mexico Bowl, Arizona and Nevada will collide in a battle of 7-5 squads. Then we’ll go the smurf turf where Utah St. will take on Toledo at the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Let’s take a closer look at both of these contests.

Nevada vs. Arizona

As of early Friday morning, most betting shops had Arizona (7-5 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) installed as a nine-point favorite with a total of 77 points. The ‘over/under’ has increased since opening at 74½. Gamblers can take the Wolf Pack to win outright for a plus-300 return (risk $100 to win $300).

Nevada (7-5 SU, 3-9 ATS) has lost four of its last five games. Even worse, the Wolf Pack is an abysmal 1-7 ATS in its last eight times out. Chris Ault’s team ended a seven-game ATS slide by taking the cash in its regular-season finale, a 27-21 home loss to Boise St. as a 7½-point underdog.

Nevada runs Ault’s Pistol offense that features the nation’s fourth-leading rusher, junior Stefphon Jefferson, who has rushed for 1,701 yards. Jefferson has rushed for 22 touchdowns and owns a 5.0 yards-per-carry average. He also has 22 catches for 170 yards and one TD.

Nevada sophomore quarterback Cody Fajardo enjoyed another productive campaign getting it done with his running and throwing. Fajardo completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 2,530 yards with a 17/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also rushed 981 yards and 11 TDs, averaging 5.8 YPC.

Rich Rodriguez has to be pleased with the way his first season went in Tucson. Arizona posted wins over bowl-bound teams like Toledo, Oklahoma St., Washington and Southern Cal. Three of the Wildcats’ five losses were one-possession defeats. They dropped a 38-35 decision to Oregon St., lost 54-48 at Stanford in overtime and fell 41-34 to Arizona St. In the losses to Stanford and ASU, ‘Zona allowed double-digit leads in the second half to get away.

Arizona is led by senior QB Matt Scott, who threw for 3,238 yards with a 24/12 TD-INT ratio. Scott ran for 485 yards and five TDs, averaging 4.5 YPC. Scott’s favorite target is sophomore wide receiver Austin Hill, who made 73 receptions for 1,189 yards and nine TDs.

Arizona has the nation’s second-leading rusher in sophomore Ka’Deem Carey, who ran for 1,757 yards and 20 TDs during the regular season. Carey averaged 6.4 YPC and also made 33 receptions for 288 yards and one TD.

Arizona went 1-2 ATS in three games as a single-digit ‘chalk’ this year.

Nevada has been an underdog three times this year, compiling a 2-1 spread record. The Wolf Pack won one of those games outright, besting California 31-24 as a 12-point road underdog in its season opener.

Nevada is bowling for the eighth consecutive season. Arizona is back in the postseason after a one-year absence. The Wildcats were blown out in their last two bowl appearances, losing 33-0 to Nebraska in the 2009 Holiday Bowl before falling 36-10 to Oklahoma St. in the 2010 Alamo Bowl.

The ‘over’ is 8-3 overall for Arizona, 7-1 in its last eight games. As for Nevada, it has seen the ‘over’ go 6-5 overall.

Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Toledo vs. Utah St.

The MAC and the WAC will be represented in Saturday’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl in Boise, ID. Most books are listing Utah St. (10-2 SU, 10-1-1 ATS) as a 10½-point favorite with a total of 58½. The Rockets are plus-325 on the money line (risk $100 to win $325).

Gary Andersen’s team nearly pulled off an unblemished season for our purposes, but it failed to cover for the first time in a 45-9 win over Idaho as a 37-point ‘chalk’ in the regular-season finale.

Utah St. is led by dynamic sophomore QB Chuckie Keeton, who has brought this program back to respectability after it failed to go to the postseason from 1998-2010. Keeton completed 67.3 percent of his passes this year for 3,142 yards with a 27/9 TD-INT ratio. He ran for 539 yards and seven TDs. For his career, Keeton has a 38/11 TD-INT ratio with nine rushing scores.

Utah St. RB Kerwynn Williams has run for 1,277 yards and 12 TDs, averaging 6.4 YPC. Williams also led the Aggies in receiving with 43 catches for 663 yards and five TDs.

Utah St. is ranked eighth in the country in scoring defense, giving up 15.4 PPG.

Toledo (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) raced out to an 8-1 record, only to lose a pair of tight games in its last three contests. The Rockets recovered to win their regular-season finale, although they failed to cover the number in a 35-23 win over Akron as 17 ½-point home favorites. Austin Dantin, a product of Tallahassee Leon High, threw a career-high five TD passes while subbing for starting QB Terrance Owens.

Owens, an athletic six-foot four-inch junior, and junior RB David Fluellen are the catalysts for Toledo. Owens has a 45/16 career TD-INT ratio. He threw for 2,681 yards and rushed for 381 yards this season. Fluellen rushed for 1,456 yards and 13 TDs with a 5.8 YPC average.

Utah St. went 5-1-1 ATS in seven games as a double-digit favorite. Meanwhile, Toledo posted a 5-0 spread record as an underdog with three outright victories.

The ‘under’ cashed at an 8-3 overall clip for both schools this season. The ‘under’ has hit in five straight for Toledo.

Toledo is in a bowl game for the third consecutive year. The Rockets have locked up in a pair of nail-biters the last two years. They lost a 34-32 decision to FIU in the 2010 Little Caesar’s Bowl but beat Air Force 42-41 in the 2011 Military Bowl.

Utah St. hasn’t enjoyed much success at Bronco Stadium. The Aggies let a lead get away in the final minute of this bowl game last year, falling to Ohio by a 24-23 score as two-point favorites. Two seasons ago, Boise St. trounced Utah St. 50-14 and the Broncos thumped the Aggies 49-14 in 2008. Finally, the Aggies also lost to Cincinnati in the 1997 Humanitarian Bowl at this same venue.

Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Potato Bowl Betting Preview: Toledo vs. Utah State
By Andrew Lange
Sportsmemo.com

Toledo vs. Utah State
CRIS Opener: Utah State -10 O/U 57.5
CRIS Closer: Utah State -10 O/U 58.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Utah State -14.5

For as dynamic as the offense was at times, Utah State's season was defined by its defense. The schedule wasn't tough (92nd SOS) but only twice (vs. San Jose and Louisiana Tech) did the Aggies allow more than five yards per play. Note that they played a majority of those two contests with a significant lead. Toledo meanwhile wasn't nearly as proficient. The Rockets’ SOS was worse at 106th and yet they allowed 5.33 yards per play or more in every game but one – the season finale against a completely gassed Akron squad. Clearly, one team has the ability to force punts while the other does not.

From an ACCU-Stat perspective, Utah State again has a significant edge. In terms of what they gained and allowed, the Aggies were +2.27 yards per carry and +2.43 yards per pass. Those are Alabama-like numbers. The Rockets were -0.25 ypc and -0.28 ypp. When a team allows more than they gain on both the ground and air they become extremely tough to support when asked to step up in class – even when much of USU's statistical advantage is accounted for in the line.

One thing I do respect about Toledo however is its track record of hanging in games. Last year they lost to Ohio State, Syracuse, and Northern Illinois by a combined 11 points. Their lone blowout loss came at the hands of what ended up being a 12-1 Boise State squad. This year, more of the same with all three losses coming by seven points, including at Northern Illinois who is playing in the BCS.

Statistically, there isn't much that doesn't favor the chalk, but stats don't always play out in the postseason. Utah State is the stronger outfit but a capable and gritty underdog awaits.