College Football Betting Preview: Notre Dame vs. Navy
By Alf Musketa
Sportsmemo.com
One would think a team named the Fighting Irish would have a tremendous advantage playing in Dublin, Ireland. Not so fast. A closer look reveals Notre Dame with many injuries and suspensions for this Week 1 contest. Quarterback Tommy Rees, running back Cierre Wood, cornerback Lo Wood, linebacker Carlo Calabrese and the defensive line which is down to three healthy starters spells potential disaster against a Navy team who at the start of the season is always in tip-top shape.
Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly has said, "We are working on it every day." He is referring to the Midshipmen's triple option running attack and yes with the entire offseason to prepare, they should be more than ready. Well, Navy's head coach Ken Niumatalolo has said, "We are making changes to our lineup and improving our option attack." With new personnel at the key quarterback and fullback positions for the triple option, Niumatalolo has something up his sleeve. Surely, Navy will not run straight at Notre Dame and give them this advantage. (Navy should have the tactical advantage, militarily speaking.)
The line has come down from -17 and I agree with the move. Navy lost big to the Irish last season, 56-14, but they were banged up and only had two wins at that point. Their season was lost with no shot at a bowl berth. I expect a much better effort and a closer battle here.
CFB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Hawaii vs USC
Trojans finishing at 10-2 (8-4 ATS) last season open up their 2012 schedule at home against the Hawaii Warriors which had a 6-7 (4-9 ATS) campaign last year. Trojans loaded with offensive talent led by QB Matt Barkley (3,528 yds, 39 TDs) are huge 42-point favorite for the opener. Trojans have defeated Hawaii four consecutive times since '99 (1-3 ATS) including a 49-36 victory last meeting in Hawaii a game that saw Barkley shred Warriors for 257 yds, 5 TD's but failed at the cash window as 21-point road favorites. Barkley and company should move the football with ease notching win number for the season against a Warrior team returning just four starters on the defensive end. But, covering the whopping number the betting market has pegged them with could prove a challenge. Trojans are just 2-6 ATS last eight laying 20 or more points, Warriors are on a money making 7-2 ATS stretch last nine taking 20 or more.
Alabama vs Michigan
QB Denard Robinson and Wolverines off an 11 win season including a Sugar Bowl win over Virginia Tech face a tough test to open the campaign as they take on Alabama. The defending champs off one of the most impressive defensive performances last year allowing just 183.6 yards/game and only 8.2 points per contest have opened 14.0 point favorites. A lot of lumber considering Bama lost quite a bit of talent on the defensive side. Now, if Robinson can take advantage of the less experienced 'Bama 'D' this could be a good spot for Michigan. Not suggesting an outright 'W' but Wolverines should keep it within the points as they're on a smart 9-2-1 ATS streak in non-conference games, 6-0 ATS as non-conference dogs of 4 or more points.
College Football Betting Preview: Hawaii at USC
By Andrew Lange
Sportsmemo.com
Roll through USC's scores last year and you'll notice that in games in which the Trojans won by a comfortable margin, none topped 60 points. In blowout victories over UCLA, Washington, Colorado, Cal and Syracuse, USC jumped out to first half leads of 29-0, 23-3, 28-10, 20-0 and 17-3. They often put the game out of reach in the third quarter and never scored more than a touchdown in the fourth quarter. Keep in mind that was with a defense that was slightly above average by PAC-12 standards. This year's unit is projected to be much stronger.
Hawaii is noted for not having much of a defense and with only four returning starters, if USC wanted to score 50+, it probably could. But there is an interesting storyline here with first-year head coach Norm Chow very familiar with the Trojans having coached at both UCLA and Utah. And perhaps more important is Chow's West Coast system that is expected to feature much more balance compared to the pass-happy ways of June Jones and Greg McMackin.
“The run-and-shoot is a tremendous way and a very effective way to move the ball, but we just feel like we have the kind of people that we need to run the ball with,” said Chow.
“Coach Chow is kind of known as an offensive genius in the college football world,” Schroeder said. “He knows how to create mismatches on the outside and establish the running game, and just put the whole team in great situations to win football games with moving the ball and getting first downs.”
Learning a new system and being asked to make a massive step up in class leaves Chow with little option but to try to play things conservative and keep his defense off the field as much as possible. As for Kiffin, he gets labeled as a hardass but last year showed the he didn't have too much interest in rubbing it in. I'm playing the one UNDER.
College Football Betting Preview: Miami (FL) at Boston College
By Ian Cameron
Sportsmemo.com
The Miami Hurricanes could not qualify for a bowl game in head coach Al Golden’s first season due to a self-imposed ban but that changes as they enter 2012. Miami went just 6-6 overall and 3-5 in conference play but did manage a 7-5 ATS mark. The Hurricanes dealt with numerous player suspensions and while that stunted the development of the team, it did give other players valuable experience. That’s especially important considering the fact Miami is replacing seven starters on offense. Junior quarterback Stephen Morris is set to take over as the starter. He will replace Jacory Harris who left the Hurricanes as the second-leading passer in school history. Morris saw action in four games last season and completed 26-of-37 passes for 283 yards. He did not throw for a touchdown and had two interceptions but is familiar with the offense.
Miami also lost its leading running back Lamar Miller who left early for the NFL. He rushed for over 1,000 yards and had 9 TDs but they have some decent options to take his spot with senior Mike James and highly touted freshman Duke Johnson. The receiving corps is lacking experience with Tommy Streeter and Travis Benjamin both gone. The most experienced receiver is junior Allen Hurns who will start alongside a pair of sophomores. The offensive line is a work in progress.
Golden usually has strong defenses but this team has a few concerns in that department. The defensive line was not a major strength and has some new players on it. The only returning starter to the linebacking corps is sophomore Denzel Perryman. The secondary is filled with new faces and was dealt a blow when strong safety Ray-Ray Armstrong was kicked off the team.
Boston College went a disappointing 4-8 overall and 3-5 in ACC play (6-6 ATS). They were supposed to get former star running back Montel Harris back but he was suspended indefinitely and then dismissed from the team for violating team rules during the offseason. In light of his absence, the Eagles will use a three-man rushing attack similar to last season. The leader is Rolandan Finch (705 yards) but Andre Williams (515 yards 4 TDs) may be the most talented of the bunch. So with BC’s rushing attack an uncertainty, the offense desperately needs more out of what was a very weak passing game. Boston College was ranked 100th in the country in total yards per game through the air and to help with the development of junior signal caller Chase Rettig (1,960 yards, 12 TDs, 9 INTs), head coach Frank Spaziani brought in former Kent State head coach Doug Martin, who is widely known as a QB guru. The good news for for Rettig is that he has more experience under his belt and also has his two leading receivers in Bobby Swigert (44 catches, 470 yards) and Colin Larmond (34 catches, 528 yards) back. I like the hiring of Martin as offensive coordinator and I expect stronger play from Rettig and better production from the passing game. The offensive line should be improved as well with a lot of younger players thrown into the fire in 2011.
The defensive was very young last season and should improve but faces a talented Miami rushing attack on Saturday. Defensive end Kasim Edebali and defensive tackle Dillon Quinn each return as starters up front but need to create more pressure after posting just a single sack last season. It goes without saying that BC will dearly miss departed linebacker Luke Kuechly who was a first round NFL pick. Replacing his immense talent was best summed up by defensive coordinator Bill McGovern: “You're not going to flat-out replace Luke. He was a human eraser. A number of guys will have to step up.” The secondary is another area of concern with senior Jim Noel the lone returning starter from a unit that ranked 81st in the nation against the pass.
As mentioned, both secondaries are thin. The experience Morris gained last season coupled with BC’s offseason losses to its defense put the Hurricanes in position to move the football a number of ways. BC meanwhile is in a similar situation with Rettig poised for better production and facing a young, inexperienced Hurricane secondary. Look for a higher scoring game then what the betting markets are anticipating here as we strike with the OVER on this moderately low total.
Michigan - Alabama Preview
By Jerry Lambert
Playbook.com
What a way to start of the College Football season, as we have #2 ranked Alabama against the much improved #8 Michigan Wolverines. The Crimson Tide may have lost their leading rusher in Trent Richardson, but they will have more than enough depth on the offensive side of the ball to carry the load. The Michigan Wolverines are coming back to national prominence with a solid core of skill players and are led by QB Denard Robinson, who threw for fifteen touchdowns and rushed for another sixteen touchdowns. However, the Michigan Wolverines have not played a defense that is as quick and as athletic as the Crimson Tide. The Tide are a perfect 5-0 ATS their last five neutral site games, and Alabama is 8-1 ATS their last nine non-conference games. We here at Great Lakes sports look for a hard fought battle between these two teams, with the Alabama Crimson Tide wearing down the Michigan Wolverines in the second half. The Wolverines QB Denard Robinson will also have a rough time throwing the football, as he will be running for his life throughout the game with the stout front four of the Crimson Tide. One other quick note, the Michigan Wolverines are a dismal 1-3-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games, and with just an average running game for the Wolverines, we believe the Alabama Crimson Tide will dismantle the Michigan Wolverines this Saturday and grab the ATS win & cover.
College Football Betting Preview: Michigan vs. Alabama
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com
Michigan enjoyed one heck of a first season for Brady Hoke, finishing their 11-win season with a thrilling overtime victory over Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl. But it’s not going to be an easy task for the Wolverines to repeat that level of performance in 2012. Michigan suffered significant graduation losses on both the offensive and defensive lines; bad news for ultra-hyped senior quarterback Denard Robinson.
Nor can the Wolverines expect to win every close game like they did last year; undefeated in games decided by a touchdown or less. And make no mistake about it – this is a step up in class game for the Wolverines. Michigan’s last three step-up-in-class games on the road? They lost 42-7 and 37-7 at Ohio State, and 52-14 to Mississippi State; completely non-competitive in all three contests.
Alabama suffered major graduation losses as well, but Nick Saban’s program is quite capable of withstanding the losses of eight NFL draft choices, including four in the first round. No coach in the country has more elite level talent stockpiled on his bench than Saban. This defense has ranked in the top five nationally in each of the last four years, capable of disrupting the Wolverines at the line of scrimmage, with enough team speed to keep ‘Shoelace’ Robinson in the pocket, not making plays with his feet.
Alabama doesn’t beat itself very often; ranked in the top 5 nationally in fewest turnovers in each of the past three seasons. Returning quarterback starter AJ McCarron threw only five interceptions in 328 pass attempts last year – in sharp contrast to Robinson’s 15 INTs on 258 throws. And with 95 career starts returning on the offensive line, look for the Crimson Tide to enjoy solid offensive balance, keeping the Wolverines defense out of sync throughout.
Michigan’s offense was stymied against the two best defenses they faced last year. Michigan State held the Wolverines to 14 points and 250 yards. Virginia Tech held Michigan to 184 total yards, but Michigan won the turnover battle and got the breaks, managing to score 20 points in regulation. The only game last year where Bama allowed more than 14 points came in a late season affair against FCS Georgia Southern; a game where Saban emptied his bench. Saban might empty his bench here, but not before Alabama has an insurmountable lead.
Michigan vs. Alabama
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
The defending national champions will begin their quest to win three titles in a four-year stretch when they take on Michigan at Cowboys Stadium on Saturday night. As of late Friday morning, most books were listing Alabama as a 14-point favorite with a total of 47.
The Crimson Tide had been favored by 12½ for the last few weeks but the number moved up to 13 on Monday, to 13½ on Tuesday and some spots were at 14 on Wednesday. The total was 42½ at most offshores until most Las Vegas shops posted the tally at 45 on Monday. By Thursday morning, the total was as high as 47.
Nick Saban’s team returns six starters on offense and five on defense. Gone from the defensive unit are four players that were first-round picks this past spring. The Alabama ‘D’ gave up just 8.2 points per game while going 12-1 in 2011, dealing out cream-cheese treatment to LSU in a 21-0 win at the BCS Championship Game in New Orleans.
Even though the defense is still stacked with talent galore, it can’t help but miss the presence of four first-rounders and the leadership they provided. This bunch will have its hands full with Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson.
Alabama junior QB A.J. McCarron won’t have Trent Richardson to lean on anymore, nor will he have his top four pass catchers from last season. Nevertheless, the cupboard is far from bare with junior RB Eddie Lacy poised for a big season.
Lacy, who averaged 7.1 yards per carry and rushed for seven TDs in 2011, has been slowed by an ankle sprain recently but will get the starting nod. The Tide is looking for an immediate impact from true freshman RB T.J. Yeldon, who was an early enrollee that stole the show in the spring game.
There is a switch at offensive coordinator with Jim McElwain leaving to take the head-coaching job at Colorado St. McElwain has been replaced by former Washington o-coordinator Doug Nussmeier.
McCarron will try to build on his 2011 stats that weren’t too shabby. He completed 66.8 percent of his passes for 2,634 yards with a 16/5 TD-INT ratio.
Michigan enjoyed a return to prominence in Brady Hoke’s first season at the helm. The Wolverines had a disastrous three-year run under Rich Rodriguez, compiling an abysmal 15-22 record.
But Hoke turned things around quickly, going 11-2 with an overtime win over Va. Tech at the Sugar Bowl. The former head coach at San Diego St. and Ball St. took a defense that surrendered 35.2 PPG in 2010 and turned into a stout unit that gave up just 17.4 PPG last year.
Although R-Rod’s spread attack was better suited for Robinson’s skill set, he still produced huge numbers in a more pro-style system under o-coordinator Al Borges. Robinson rushed for 1,349 yards and 16 touchdowns, while also passing for 2,173 yards and 20 TDs. His accuracy isn’t his best trait, though, as evidenced by 15 interceptions and a 55-percent completion rate.
Michigan returns junior RB Fitzgerald Toussaint, who rushed for 1,041 yards and nine TDs while averaging 5.6 YPC last season. But his playing time could be limited this week due to a suspension from an off-the-field incident.
The Wolverines return six starters on offense and seven on defense. Two starting WRs are back in the mix, including junior Jeremy Gallon, who had 31 receptions for 453 yards and three TDs last year. Also, senior Roy Roundtree has 1,724 career receiving yards.
Michigan has nine of its top 11 tacklers back. Senior MLB Kenny Demens had 94 tackles and three sacks last year.
Michigan went 2-1 both straight up and against the spread in three underdog situations last year. Meanwhile, Alabama posted a 7-3 spread record in 10 games as a double-digit ‘chalk.’
ABC will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
South Carolina escaped Music City with a 17-13 comeback win over Vanderbilt thanks to 110 rushing yards and two touchdowns from junior running back Marcus Lattimore, who found paydirt on a one-yard plunge with 11:25 remaining to give the Gamecocks the lead for good. Connor Shaw gutted out a shoulder injury that kept him out of the game early in the third quarter. Shaw returned to action and finished with 92 yards rushing, including a third-down scramble for first-down yardage that put the game on ice. The Commodores took the cash as 6 ½-point underdogs, while the 30 combined points fell ‘under’ the 44½-point total.
UCF finished 2011 with a disappointing 5-7 record. Many are expecting a bounce-back season for the Knights, who began the year in style with a 56-24 win over Akron as 24½-point favorites. Blake Bortles threw three TD passes for UCF, which will travel to ‘The Shoe’ to face Ohio St. in Week 2.
–Jim Mora Jr. picked up his first career win in the college ranks with UCLA’s 49-24 win at Rice as a 16-point ‘chalk.’ Johnathan Franklin rushed 15 times for 214 yards and three TDs, while redshirt freshman QB Brett Hundley scored on a 72-yard TD run on his first career snap. Hundley also connected on 21-of-28 pass attempts for 202 yards with two TDs and one interception. The Bruins host Nebraska next Saturday.
Rice’s Cameron Nwosu set an NCAA record by blocking three extra-point attempts.
BYU junior WR Cody Hoffman left Thursday night’s game against Washington St. with a quad contusion. Hoffman, who did not dress out in the second half, had a team-high 61 receptions for 943 yards and 10 TDs last year. The Cougars won’t need him in Week 2 against Weber St., but gamblers should check his status for a Week 3 game at Utah. BYU beat Washington St. by a 30-6 count as a 13-point home favorite.
Minnesota kicked a field goal at 2:48 a.m. Eastern to beat UNLV 30-27 in triple overtime. The Rebels covered the number as 9½-point home underdogs. The real story from a gambling perspective is what happened with the total, which closed 52 at most spots. The game was 13-13 going to overtime, but both teams matched touchdowns in the first two OTs to give ‘under’ backers a gut-wrenching defeat.
Notre Dame vs. Navy: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Navy Midshipmen (+15, 52.5)
After a tumultuous off-season for Brian Kelly – with player suspensions, injuries, transfers and arrests – the Notre Dame coach will be happy to get to work and finally land in Dublin, Ireland, for Saturday's season opener between Notre Dame and Navy at Aviva Stadium.
Kelly’s team will make the trip missing almost a dozen players since the 2012 spring football season began in March. Most notably, Notre Dame will be without two important offensive starters from last season – quarterback Tommy Rees and running back Cierre Wood – both of which were suspended for the Navy game after violating team rules.
The timing of the player shortage becomes of greater concern for Notre Dame because Navy has been an ornery opponent in recent years with three upset wins over the Irish in the last five meetings – the first of which came in 2007 that broke an NCAA-record 43-game winning streak in the series that ran from 1964 to 2006. After eight straight appearances in a bowl game, the Midshipmen saw their postseason streak end last season, in part because they lost five games by a total of 11 points.
LINE: Notre Dame opened as high as -17 but has been bet down in the days before kickoff. The total has also tumbled, going from 55 to 52.5 points.
ABOUT NOTRE DAME (2011: 8-5): The option offense Navy operates is always difficult to defend. But with Notre Dame’s experienced front seven considered one of the stronger points of the team, and after having the entire training camp to prepare for Navy’s unique offensive system, the Irish coaches feel well prepared.
ABOUT NAVY (2011: 5-7): Junior quarterback Trey Miller takes over the Navy offense after playing sparingly in seven appearances last season. Miller made one start in 2011, ironically, against Notre Dame because of an injury to starter Kriss Proctor. The good news is Navy returns three starters on the offensive line to help open holes in the option game.
TRENDS:
* Fighting Irish are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings in Navy.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Road team is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. After losing to Navy 35-17 in 2010 – a second straight loss to the Midshipmen – Notre Dame rebounded with an impressive 56-14 victory last season, it’s biggest blowout in 2011.
2. With 85 meetings dating back to 1927, Notre Dame has played Navy more than any other opponent, but this is the first time the two teams will meet in a season opener. The Irish lead the series 72-12-1.
3. Perhaps Irish punter Ben Turk can stay home because in the last seven meetings, Notre Dame has punted five times.
Michigan vs. Alabama: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Michigan Wolverines vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (-14, 47)
The first regular-season meeting - and only the fourth all-time - between a pair of storied programs will serve as one of the premier matchups on college football's opening weekend as No. 2 Alabama and No. 8 Michigan square off in the Cowboys Classic in Arlington, Texas.
Michigan has won its last 12 regular-season non-conference games and its last 13 September games, but both streaks will be in jeopardy against the defending national champions. The Crimson Tide begin their quest for a 15th national title - and its third under coach Nick Saban. It's the first of three matchups with preseason top 10 teams for Alabama, which faces No. 10 Arkansas on Sept. 15 and No. 1 LSU on Nov. 3.
LINE: Alabama -14. Oddsmakers opened the Crimson Tide as low as -11 but action on the defending national champs has pushed the spread to two touchdowns. The total has climbed from 45 to 47 points.
ABOUT MICHIGAN (2011: 11-2, 6-2 Big Ten): The Wolverines' offense runs through quarterback Denard Robinson, who is one of the most entertaining players in the nation. Robinson ranks sixth in Michigan history with 40 touchdown passes and fifth with 35 touchdown runs. Michigan has replaced two starters on the offensive line and three on the defensive line, though, so the Wolverines will be inexperienced in the trenches.
ABOUT ALABAMA (2011: 12-1, 7-1 SEC): Gone is star running back Trent Richardson, but the offensive line that paved the way for him is back, led by Outland Trophy winner Barrett Jones. Junior Eddie Lacy takes over the starting job running behind that line after playing in 24 games as a backup to Richardson and Mark Ingram over the past two seasons.
TRENDS:
* Wolverines are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
* Crimson Tide are 8-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference games.
* Over is 7-1 in Wolverines' last eight vs. SEC.
* Over is 8-3-1 in Crimson Tide's last 12 non-conference games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. In 67 games under Saban, Alabama has held opponents to less than 300 total yards 40 times. The Crimson Tide have allowed 10 points or less 33 times during Saban's tenure.
2. Michigan is 24-9-1 against current SEC teams, but the Wolverines haven't faced an SEC opponent in the regular season since 2006.
3. The Wolverines, who are 109-20-3 all-time in season openers, have never opened a season with a neutral-site game. Alabama has won 10 straight season openers dating to a 20-17 loss to UCLA to start the 2001 campaign.
NCAAF Week 1 Preview
Navy has beaten Notre Dame three of last five years; they're 9-6 against spread in last 15 series games. Over last decade, Middies are 24-9 vs the spread as a road underdog- they're 12-6 overall as underdog under Coach Nuimatalolo. Irish QB Rees is suspended for this game; Notre Dame has seven other starters back on offense, six on defense, with three starters back on OL. Over last four years, disciplined Navy is +40 in its turnover ratio- they only lost by a FG at a good South Carolina squad LY.
Penn State starts new era here, having covered just four of last 17 tries as a home favorite. Lions are starting seven seniors on defense but return only four starters on defense, five on offense. Since '09, State is 2-12 vs spread in non-league games. Ohio U is 27-14 SU last three years, playing in bowls (1-2) all three years; they're 8-4 vs spread in last dozen tries as a road underdog. Bobcats have 3rd-year starting QB in Tettleton who is best QB on this field, and eight starters back on defense.
Home side won both Northwestern-Syracuse games when these teams met in '08-'09; underdogs are 17-8 vs spread in Northwestern's last 25 road games. Wildcats lost six starters on both sides of ball; their QB has made six career starts, but three of those were at WR. Northwestern is 11-17 vs spread in last 28 non-league games. Since '07, Syracuse is 12-20 vs spread in Carrier Dome, 17-29 SU since '05. Orange lost six starters on defense but does have a senior QB- they better not be looking ahead to next week's game with USC at Giants Stadium.
Boston College (+13.5) won 24-17 at Miami LY, in last game played by both teams; Eagles were +3 in turnovers in teams' first meeting since '07. Miami won four of last five visits here, with underdogs covering four of those five games. 'canes are just 41-35 since '06, 13-10 vs spread on road since '08. Eagles have ten starters back on offense, four on OL, seven on defense; their QB has 21 career starts. BC is just 6-7 SU in its last 13 home games, 3-10 vs spread. Miami lost six of last seven road openers.
Colorado won seven of last nine games with Colorado State, with faves covering five of last six, as both sides have fallen on hard times. State has 7 starters back on offense, 3 on OL, 8 on defense and new HC in former Alabama OC McElwain, who is breaking in new QB. Rams are 17-24 vs spread in non-league games over last decade. Buffs have only 3 starters back on offense, 6 on defene; they've had six losing years in row. New QB is a transfer from Texas, so he could be an upgrade over Hansen. Since 2008, Colorado is 2-5 against spread as the favorite.
Clemson put up 624 yards in 38-24 win over Auburn LY, avenging OT loss to Newton-led War Eagles year before. Another new QB and shaky WRs for Auburn squad that slipped to 8-5 in first year post-Cam; they're 8-9 vs spread away from home in Chizik era, 7-7 as an underdog. Clemson spent serious $$$ on defensive assistants in offseason, after giving up 70 points in bowl meltdown. Clemson is 14-11 vs spread last 25 games as favorite, but covered just three of last 11 on neutral fields. Boyd has good year in first season as Clemson QB (33 TD, 12 INT).
Proud Michigan program getting 14 points on a neutral field? Since '07, Wolverines are 7-11 vs spread as underdog, but they've got senior QB here with 27 career starts (1,349 YR, 2,173 PY LY). Problem for them is this; since '08, Alabama is 28-16 vs spread when favored. Tide is 48-6 in last four seasons- they crushed Michigan State 49-7 in bowl game two years ago. Junior QB McCarron threw only five INTs in 328 passes LY and won national title. Tide did lose five starters on offense, six more on defense and they have new OC in former Saints' QB Nussmeier.
Washington has trip to LSU on deck, better not look past San Diego St, squad that is 6-3 vs spread as road underdog last three years. Aztecs are breaking in new QB and three new starters on OL, but Huskies lost their bowl 67-56 LY, so the OC got a better job and the DC got fired- they've got 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense. Huskies' QB Price has 13 career starts; both his starting tackles are new this season. Washington is 6-4 as home favorite under Sarkisian, after it was 5-19 as home favorite from '02-'08.
UAB is 4-3 in its last seven games vs Troy State; teams split couple of 1-point decisions the last two years. Trojans gained 520+ total yards in last three meetings, but lost three of last four visits here, with two of the three losses by a single point. Blazers lost seven starters on defense and four on offense; they're 7-3-1 vs spread as home underdogs since 2008. Troy has nine starters back on offense, six on defense from 3-9 team, the worst in Blakeney's 21 years with Trojans, who are 3-7 vs spread as a road favorite the last three seasons.
Duke (+4) won 31-27 at Florida International LY, after trailing by 10 in 4th quarter; FIU outgained them 568-394, throwing ball for 392 yards. Blue Devils have 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense-- they're 4-3-1 vs spread as home favorite under Cutcliffe. Panthers are 7-6/8-5 last two seasons, first two winning year for program that started in '04. FIU has 7 starters back on offense, 10 on defense from that that lost to Marshall in Beef O'Brady's Bowl, 20-10. FIU is breaking in new QB but has four starters back on offensive line.
Armadillosports.com
College Football Weather Watch: Week 1
By Covers.com
With Hurricane Isaac still lingering across the southern United States and threatening to move further north, college football bettors should be aware of the sloppy conditions expected for the first big weekend of the season.
Here are a few key matchups that are being threatened by inclement weather:
Miami (OH) at Ohio State (-25.5, 51)
Site: Ohio Stadium
Forecasts are calling for an 80 percent chance of rain with winds light out of the south.
Marshall at West Virginia (-27, 69.5)
Site: Mountaineer Field
Forecasts are calling for a 50 percent of precipitation with light winds out of the west.
Buffalo at Georgia (-38.5, 54.5)
Site: Sanford Stadium
Forecasts are calling for a 25 percent chance of a thunderstorm with light winds out of the west.
North Texas at LSU (-44, 52)
Site: Tiger Stadium
Forecasts are calling for a 45 percent chance of a thunderstorm with winds light out of the south.
Clemson vs. Auburn: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Clemson Tigers vs. Auburn Tigers (+3, 55)
A budding rivalry marked by wild comebacks will be renewed when No. 25 Auburn takes on No. 14 Clemson in a Chick-Fil-A Kickoff game at the Georgia Dome. Clemson nearly derailed Auburn's national championship season in 2010, jumping out to a 17-0 lead before Cam Newton and Auburn rallied at home to win 27-24 in overtime. Clemson returned the favor last season, rebounding from a 21-7 deficit for a 38-24 home win. Auburn leads the all-time series 34-12-2 and had won 14 straight before Clemson's win last year.
Auburn has new offensive and defensive coordinators, with Scot Loeffler taking over the offense from Gus Malzahn and Brian Van Gorder replacing Ted Roof at the helm of the defense. Clemson also boasts a new defensive coordinator, having lured Brent Venables away from Oklahoma after 13 seasons with the Sooners. The Tigers hope Venables can lead the same dramatic turnaround offensive coordinator Chad Morris sparked for his unit last year, when Clemson averaged 33.6 points and 440.8 total yards.
Clemson is one of three teams in the nation to return a 3,000-yard passer (Tajh Boyd), 1,000-yard receiver (Sammy Watkins) and 1,000-yard rusher (Andre Ellington). Watkins won't suit up for the opener, though, as he serves a two-game suspension stemming from his arrest in the offseason. Auburn also will be shorthanded for disciplinary reasons, as sophomore center Reese Dismukes has been suspended indefinitely after his arrest for public intoxication.
LINE: Clemson -3. In this clash of two Tigers, oddsmakers opened Clemson as a 3.5-point road favorite, which had come down half a point. The total has moved from as high as 59.5 at some online books.
ABOUT AUBURN (2011: 8-5, 4-4 SEC): The Tigers have turned over the offense to sophomore QB Kiehl Frazier, who appeared in 13 games a year ago and rushed for 327 yards and three touchdowns. Frazier has options at his disposal, including senior RB Onterio McCalebb (985 total yards in 2011), senior WR Emory Blake (36 catches, 613 yards, 5 TDs) and senior TE Philip Lutzenkirchen (24 catches, 238 yards, 7 TDs), but he will need to establish himself as a more effective passer for the Tigers to be successful.
ABOUT CLEMSON (2011: 10-4, 6-2 ACC): The Tigers boast their highest preseason ranking since 2008, when they started the season ranked ninth but finished out of the rankings after a disappointing 7-6 campaign. The defending ACC champions have reason for optimism, especially on the offensive side of the ball, as they return a dynamic trio in QB Tajh Boyd, RB Andre Ellington and WR Sammy Watkins.
TRENDS:
* Clemson Tigers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine neutral site games.
* Auburn Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.
* Over is 4-1 in Clemson Tigers' last five non-conference games.
* Over is 9-4 in Auburn Tigers' last 13 non-conference games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Auburn has won 74 consecutive games when scoring 30 or more points, dating to a 56-49 four-overtime loss to Georgia in 1996.
2. Auburn is 5-2 all-time in the Georgia Dome and has won its last four games there, including SEC championship games in 2004 and 2010. Clemson is 2-5 all-time in the Georgia Dome, including an 0-2 mark against Auburn.
3. Clemson has won 21 of its last 27 season openers and seven of its last 10. The Tigers' three opening losses in the past decade have come against top-25 teams. Auburn has won its last six openers and is 92-25-2 all-time in opening games.
College Football Top 25 Cheat Sheet: Week 1
By Covers.com
College football is back - finally. If you're looking to bet big but only have a short amount of time to handicap, let our Top 25 cheat sheet help you out. We grabbed some quick hitting info on each of the Top-25 matchups with odds available in Week 1 of the season:
Buffalo Bulls at Georgia Bulldogs (-37.5, 53.5)
The Bulls are 0-3 against current SEC schools. Buffalo won its last game against a Top 25 team, upending No. 12 Ball State in the 2008 MAC championship game 42-24. The Bulls are 1-7 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.
Marshall Thundering Herd at West Virginia Mountaineers (-24.5, 65.5)
West Virginia has won all 11 meetings against Marshall, however, the Thundering Herd are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Herd has not defeated a ranked opponent since a win over No. 6 Kansas in 2003, a span of 13 consecutive losses.
Bowling Green Falcons at Florida Gators (-28.5, 48)
The Falcons are 3-6 against ranked teams since 2003, with the last victory coming at No. 25 Pittsburgh in 2008. The Falcons are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games as road underdogs.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-20, 53)
Since losing the first game of the 1985 season to Florida State, Nebraska has won each of its next 26 season openers by double figures.
Clemson Tigers at Auburn Tigers (+3.5, 55.5)
Clemson has won 21 of its last 27 season openers and seven of its last 10. The Tigers' three opening losses in the past decade have come against top-25 teams. Auburn has won its last six openers and is 92-25-2 all-time in opening games.
North Texas Mean Green at Louisiana State Tigers (-42.5, 52)
During its 37-game non-conference win streak in the regular season, LSU has outscored opponents 1,479-391, including a 1,163-236 margin at home. Over is 4-1 in Tigers' last five non-conference games.
Hawaii Warriors at USC Trojans (-40, 62.5)
USC is 7-0 against Hawaii and notched a 49-36 victory in 2010 in the most-recent meeting. The Trojans are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 non-conference games.
Wyoming Cowboys at Texas Longhorns (-30, 51)
Texas is 99-17-3 (.845) in openers, including a 77-7-2 (.907) mark at home. Brown has won 13 of his 14 openers at Texas. Cowboys are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as road underdogs.
Michigan Wolverines at Alabama Crimson Tide (-14, 45.5)
Michigan is 24-9-1 against current SEC teams, but the Wolverines haven't faced an SEC opponent in the regular season since 2006. Over is 7-1 in Wolverines' last eight versus SEC foes.
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Oregon Ducks (-35, 68.5)
The Ducks averaged 46.1 points, third in the nation last season. Over is 21-4-1 in Ducks' last 26 games as home favorites.
Oklahoma Sooners at UTEP Miners (+31, 61.5)
Oklahoma has won the two previous meetings - 55-14 in 2000 and 68-0 in 2002 - both in Norman. The Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games.