Florida State, Charleston Southern Preview
By: Adam Markowitz
The Charleston Southern Buccaneers are going to try to make a name for themselves in Week 2 of the college football betting campaign when they head to Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium to take on the Florida State Seminoles.
Kickoff from Tallahassee Saturday is slated for 6:00 p.m. (ET), and the game will be shown live on ESPN3.com.
Nearly half of the Charleston Southern (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) roster played high school ball in the Sunshine State, which is probably why the Buccaneers are making a second straight trip to Florida. The Bucs were crushed by the UCF Knights 62-0 at Bright House Networks Stadium last Saturday night, and they're just hoping to avoid getting laughed off of the field in Tallahassee this weekend.
The Knights scored at least two TDs in all four quarters and racked up 560 yards of offense on the night in Week 1. Meanwhile, Charleston Southern only accounted for 119 yards and only reached the UCF side of the field three times in the game. The Buccaneers had more punts (seven) than first downs (six).
Head coach Jimbo Fisher and his Seminoles (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) have to be licking their chops. The garnet and gold posted a shutout in their first game of the season, blanking the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 34-0. ULM only had 191 yards of total offense.
Of course, it wasn't all peaches and cream for the No. 4 ranked team in the Don Best Oddsmaker Poll. The Seminoles had a ton of drives in the first half halted prematurely, and good field position was squandered. Quarterback EJ Manuel threw for 252 yards and two TDs, but he was also picked off once and could have made a heck of a lot more out of his chances in Warhawks territory.
The running game also never really got going for Florida State against the Sun Belt reps. Chris Thompson only had 33 yards on six carries, while freshman Devonta Freeman had 24 yards and a TD on seven rushes. Ty Jones, the veteran of the bunch, only had five carries for nine yards. A team average of 3.3 rushing yards per attempt is going to be something that Coach Fisher and his staff harps on dramatically against Charleston Southern.
Over the past several seasons, the Buccaneers have had no luck whatsoever against FBS schools. The 62-0 loss against UCF was the worst they have suffered against an FBS foe in a decade, but it's not the only awful defeat. The team's closest result since 2008 was a 49-21 loss at the Kentucky Wildcats last season.
However, mixed in there are a 66-7 loss at the Hawaii Warriors, a 59-0 loss at the South Florida Bulls and a 62-3 loss at the Florida Gators in 2009 and 2010.
Florida State hasn't always had good success against FCS teams, though. Yes, the 'Noles took down the Samford Bulldogs 59-6 in the opening game of last season, but in 2009, the Jacksonville State Gamecocks took it down to the wire in a 19-9 FSU victory. Each of the other three games against FCS opponents dating back to 2000 all resulted in victories of at least 39 points.
Temperatures are starting to cool down in northern Florida this week, and the thermometer should only read in the low-80s at game time on Saturday. There is a modest 30 percent chance of isolated storms.
Nevada At Oregon Ducks Betting Preview
By: Matty Simo
The third-ranked Oregon Ducks will try to regroup from a disappointing 40-27 loss to No. 4 LSU last week when they host the Nevada Wolf Pack at Autzen Stadium on Saturday.
Oregon opened as 22½-point favorites against the Wolf Pack according to the Don Best odds screen and have already seen the line go as high as 27.
The Ducks were 3½-point favorites against the Tigers last Saturday at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas and will be happy to be back playing in front of their home fans.
Oregon (0-1) had hoped a step-up in competition would immediately help the team get on the fast track to another potential national title run after falling short last year in a 22-19 loss to Auburn in the BCS Championship Game. Instead, the Ducks were overwhelmed at times by a Southeastern Conference school for the second game in a row and did not play a true neutral site game because many more Tigers fans made the short trip to Texas from Louisiana.
LSU was able to capitalize on four turnovers by Oregon and limited running back LaMichael James to 54 yards on 18 carries to pull off the victory. James was considered a Heisman Trophy candidate heading into the game after leading the nation in rushing yards a year ago and will need to be a bigger factor offensively against Nevada.
The Ducks looked good early on but wore down again in the second half, much like they did against Auburn in the BCS Championship. They led 13-9 with 5:16 remaining in the second quarter and then saw the Tigers score 24 consecutive points to take a 33-13 lead with 14:07 left in the fourth. Oregon lost three fumbles, and quarterback Darron Thomas also threw an interception despite outplaying his counterpart Jarrett Lee, who filled in for the suspended Jordan Jefferson.
What looked early like it could be a low-scoring game ended up going way ‘over’ the 54-point line.
Nevada will be opening its season on the road following a successful 2010 campaign that resulted in the team going 13-1, capped by a 20-13 win over Boston College in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl at AT&T Park in San Francisco. In fact, the Wolf Pack will play their first four games away from home, visiting San Jose State, Texas Tech and Boise State after the trip to Eugene.
The team lost star quarterback Colin Kaepernick to the NFL’s San Francisco 49ers and has replaced him with senior Tyler Lantrip, who will making his first career start in a hostile environment. Lantrip has played in 13 games over his first three years at Nevada and is viewed as a better pure passer than Kaepernick, a dual threat who was just as dangerous running the ball.
Senior wide receiver Rishard Matthews will give Lantrip a big target and should help ease the transition after making 56 catches for 879 yards and scoring five touchdowns last season.
Saturday’s high temperature in Eugene is expected to reach a high of 94 degrees under sunny skies. Game time is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by FX.
Wisconsin Badgers, Oregon State Betting Preview
By: Michael Robinson
UPDATE (Sept. 8): Oregon State running back Malcolm Agnew is now listed as doubtful for this Saturday's game at Wisconsin due to his hamstring injury.
The Wisconsin Badgers and Oregon State Beavers had polar opposite results from Week 1. The teams meet Saturday in ‘Madtown’ in a battle of major conferences.
The football odds list Wisconsin as 21 ½-point favorites with a total of 57 points. ESPN will have the broadcast from Camp Randall Stadium at noon (ET).
The Big Ten Badgers came out snarling in their 51-17 win over UNLV last Thursday night. They scored seven touchdowns and a field goal in their first eight possessions to build a 51-3 lead, looking like a scrimmage between the varsity and junior varsity.
Coach Bret Bielema pulled the offensive starters in the third quarter and UNLV scored the final two touchdowns for the very fortunate ‘push’ as 34-point ‘dogs. The 68 combined points scored easily went ‘over’ the 56-point total. The win moved Wisconsin up from 11th to eighth in the AP, but stayed put at sixth in the Don Best Linemakers Poll. Fans are dreaming about a much higher finish, especially after the performance of transfer quarterback Russell Wilson.
The senior was all that was advertised and more, going 10-of-13 for 255 passing yards. That’s a whopping 19.6 yards per attempt He also showed his running ability (two carries, 62 yards) in addition to his rocket arm.
Wilson never had an offensive line at NC State like he does now. The unit blew UNLV off the ball giving Montee Ball and James White holes that a tractor could drive through. Wilson will still mostly be asked to just manage the offense, but he has the ability to lead a comeback if necessary, even against upper echelon teams.
The one dose of reality is the defense. There were some problems in addition to UNLV’s two touchdown drives. The Rebels rushed for 146 yards and had 292 total yards, with the pistol formation causing confusion. Bielema’s defense lost some key starters like J.J. Watt, and has a way to go to match last year’s 321.8 YPG allowed (20th nationally).
The Badgers have a 10-game home winning streak (6-4 ATS). They’ve averaged an enormous 57.7 PPG in their last six at home, with the ‘over’ going 5-0-1.
Wisconsin has won 29-straight regular season non-conference games (14-11-1 ATS) dating back to 2003.
Pac-12 Oregon State suffered an embarrassing 29-28 loss to FCS Sacramento State as huge 27 ½-point home favorites. The win was capped by a bold 2-point conversion in overtime.
Junior quarterback Ryan Katz started, but was pulled after going 11-of-22 passing for 87 yards and being on the wrong end of a 14-3 halftime score. Redshirt freshman Sean Mannion did much better (8-of-12, 143 passing yards) and true freshman Malcolm Agnew had a big day with 223 rushing yards and three TDs.
The 57 combined points scored was a ‘push’ of the college football betting total even with overtime. The ‘under’ was 5-0 in Oregon State’s final five games last year, scoring just 16.8 PPG after 29.9 PPG in the first seven.
Oregon State will play both quarterbacks this week according to coach Mike Riley. Agnew tweaked his hamstring, but is not listed on the Don Best injury report. His emergence is key with Jacquizz Rodgers (1,184 rushing yards) leaving early for the NFL last year.
Receiver James Rodgers (Jacquizz’s brother) missed the opener with a knee injury and is expected out this week as well. Junior Markus Wheaton will again be the go-to guy with 108 receiving yards last week.
The Beavers were 5-7 SU last year, including 1-5 in road and neutral site games (4-2 ATS). They are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 as a road underdog.
The Beavers defense is fast, but undersized up front. That seems to be a recipe for disaster against the huge Badgers offensive line even with defensive tackle Kevin Frahm (knee) returning.
The ‘D’ is also inexperienced overall with just three returning starters. Jeff Fleming threw for 257 yards last week against what was supposed to be a promising secondary.
This is the second meeting between the teams, the first coming in 1961. Wisconsin did struggle at home against then Pac-10 Arizona State last year, a fortunate 20-19 victory as 11 ½-point favorites.
Weather will not be an issue, clear and reaching the upper 70s. Wisconsin kicker Philip Welch (quad) is listed as doubtful after missing last week. Freshman Kyle French hit a 29-yard field goal last week in his only attempt, but missed an extra point.
Utah Utes Begin Pac-12 Play At USC Trojans
By: Dave Consolazio
The Utah Utes will play in their first official Pac-12 conference game Saturday night when they visit the Coliseum to face the USC Trojans.
The Don Best odds screen currently lists USC as an 8½-point favorite at home. The game starts at 7:30 p.m. (ET) and will be televised on the Versus Network.
USC and Utah both picked up wins in their season openers, but neither looked particularly sharp doing so. This game provides an early chance for each of these teams to make a statement. The Utes are looking to prove they belong in the Pac-12, and USC trying to climb back to a point of prominence in the Pac-12 and in all of college football this season.
The Don Best Linemakers Poll has USC 18th, with Utah just outside the top 30.
Southern Cal (1-0) got tremendous performances from Matt Barkley and Robert Woods, who each had record-setting days. Barkley set a USC record of 34 completions on 45 pass attempts, finishing the day with 304 passing yards and three touchdowns.
Woods was the recipient of all three touchdown passes, bringing in 17 catches (a new USC record) for 177 yards.
With all three touchdown passes coming in the first half, USC entered halftime up 19-3, and looked well on their way to a rout over the Minnesota Golden Gophers. But the Gophers made some adjustments in the locker room, and USC failed to score another point.
Two Minnesota touchdowns later, it was 19-17, and the Golden Gophers had the ball last with a chance to win before the USC defense came up with the stop.
The Trojans are certainly happy with the defensive stand, but as a 24-point favorite, it never should have been that close.
Utah (1-0) also got off to a big start last Saturday against an FCS opponent, the Montana State Bobcats. The Utes jumped out to an early 24-0 lead, led by John White IV’s two touchdowns (one rushing, one receiving). He ended up with 150 rushing yards on 19 carries.
But after going up 24-0 just under four minutes into the second quarter, Utah managed only three more points for the rest of the game. The Utes failed to cover the spread as 29 ½-point favorites, winning by a final score of 27-10.
Both USC and Utah went ‘under’ the total in their opening game. Dating back to last season, the ‘under’ is 4-1 in Utah’s last five games and all five of USC’s most recent battles.
The total for Saturday is set at 52.
Each team also seemed to pick up where they left off last season by failing to cover the spread. The Trojans are 2-5 against the spread their last seven games, and Utah is 1-6.
Arkansas Razorbacks Meet Lobos In Little Rock
By: Michael Robinson
The Arkansas Razorbacks are a huge favorite for the second week in a row when they battle the New Mexico Lobos on Saturday night.
The college football odds show Arkansas as 36-point favorites with a total of 53 points. ESPNU will have the 7:00 p.m. (ET) tilt from War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock, 190 miles from the Razorbacks’ Fayetteville campus.
Arkansas plays a couple of games every season in Little Rock and is 8-0 straight up and 4-2 against the spread there over the last four years.
The Razorback have big expectations after going 10-3 SU last year (9-4 ATS) and earning their first-ever BCS berth (31-26 Sugar Bowl loss to Ohio State). They’re currently ranked No. 14 in the AP and 12th in the Don Best Linemakers Poll.
Coach Bobby Petrino’s team actually moved down in the Don Best poll despite a 51-7 win over FCS Missouri State last week. That was a ‘cover’ of the 41 ½-point spread and Arkansas had a 44-0 lead with 4:15 left in the third, aided by Joe Adams’ two punt returns for TDs.
Junior quarterback Tyler Wilson got his first career start. He’s trying to replace the big shoes and arm of Ryan Mallett. Wilson threw for 332 yards in a relief appearance at Auburn last year and was 18-of-24 (75 percent) for 260 passing yards against Missouri State last week, splitting time with Brandon Mitchell.
Wilson and Mitchell could both see action this game, depending on how close it is. The Razorbacks have an embarrassment of riches at receiver with Adams, Greg Childs, Jarius Wright and Cobi Hamilton.
Running back is more of a concern with Knile Davis (1,322 rushing yards last year) out for the year with an ankle injury. Dennis Johnson (hamstring) is doubtful after missing last week and most of last year. Ronnie Wingo Jr. had 43 rushing yards and 51 receiving as the featured back last week.
The Arkansas defense is underrated with seven returning starters from a unit that finished 36th nationally in yards allowed (347.9 YPG). It held Missouri State to 163 total yards.
New Mexico opened its season last week with a 14-10 home loss to fellow MWC school Colorado State. It was a heartbreaking defeat as the Lobos were on their opponents’ 15-yard line late in the game before a crucial fumble.
Coach Mike Locksley’s Lobos at least ‘covered’ as 6½-point underdogs. They were 9-15 ATS combined the last two years, while going 2-22 SU. The coach is on the hot seat, having also been marred by off-the-field incidents, including allegedly punching an assistant.
Sophomore quarterback Tarean Austin had the key fumble last week and was running for his life most of the game, getting sacked a whopping nine times. He did do some good things when he could get the pass off, 20-of-31 for 179 passing yards and a touchdown.
Receiver Deon Long had 79 of those yards and Lamaar Thomas had 34. They are major conference transfers from West Virginia and Ohio State respectively. Running back Kasey Carrier missed last week (knee injury) and is doubtful Saturday. That leaves James Wright (65 yards last week) as the main runner.
New Mexico has a new 4-2-5 defense after ranking among the worst in college football last year. Colorado State’s Pete Thomas was a very efficient 22-of-26 (84.6 percent) last week, although he was held under 200 yards (178).
The Lobos were able to win time of possession (33.5 -26.5 minutes) by running for 150 yards (57 by the quarterback Austin). It won’t be that easy against Arkansas, which means many more possessions for Wilson to pick apart the soft coverage of the secondary.
New Mexico is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a 10½-point underdog or more. The ‘over’ is 6-2 in its last eight road games, allowing 44.4 PPG.
Arkansas is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games overall. The ‘under’ is 3-0 in its last three, dipping below the 70-point betting total last week.
This is the first meeting between the teams since 1987. Weather should be partly cloudy and in the low 70s.
Northwestern State In Mismatch At LSU Tigers
By: Ryan Mercier
Saturday night college football presents a game from one of the best atmospheres in the sport down in the Bayou at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. At 8:00 p.m. (ET) the LSU Tigers will host the Northwestern State Demons. This game can be streamed live on ESPN3.com.
The Don Best Linemakers Poll finds the LSU Tigers tied for No. 7 with the team that they just beat by 13 points to open the season, the Oregon Ducks.
It is safe to say that Northwestern State will not be challenging for a BCS title this season, most prominently because they are an FCS (Division I-AA) school reigning from the Southland Conference.
The best news for the Demons, besides their intimidating moniker, is that they are coming off of a win in their opener and in exciting fashion at that. At home against the Delta State Statesmen, Northwestern State stopped a 2-point conversion attempt with 10 seconds remaining that would have been the deciding score. The Statesmen could not exorcise these Demons.
As for LSU, it would be a very tough challenge to find a reason for them to slip up in this game. The only plausible argument could be this is a trap game considering the Tigers head on the road to face tougher opponents in Mississippi State and West Virginia the next two weeks. Both teams are ranked in the Don Best and AP Polls.
That’s enough of the fairy tale because this is an LSU squad that held Heisman hopeful LaMichael James to 54 yards on the ground a week ago and forced the Ducks to commit four turnovers. Oregon did outgain the Tigers in total yards, but LSU kept possession of the ball for 33 minutes and amassed 80 more yards rushing.
This could be the perfect game for quarterback Jarrett Lee to get into his groove for the season. Lee wasn’t spectacular completing 10-of-22 passes for 98 yards. He did, however, throw one TD and no interceptions.
Lee, of course, took over for Jordan Jefferson who is still suspended indefinitely due to off the field issues.
LSU has a very impressive streak heading into this game winning its last 34 games against nonconference opponents. Many of those teams were undoubtedly better than Northwestern State.
There is no betting line on this contest at this time, but expect the Tigers to be a massive favorite.
Weather should not be a factor as the forecast calls for a temperature of 76 degrees and minimal cloud cover.
Alabama Travels To Meet Penn State Nittany Lions
By: Jeff Grant
The Alabama Crimson Tide (1-0) and Penn State Nittany Lions (1-0) will meet at Beaver Stadium for the first time since 1989 Saturday afternoon. Kickoff from University Park, PA, is scheduled for 3:30 (ET) and will be nationally-televised on ABC.
Alabama may have received some motivation Tuesday, dropping to No. 3 in the AP Poll due to LSU’s convincing neutral-site win over the Oregon Ducks at Cowboys Stadium. The Don Best Linesmaker Poll disagrees with the writers and lists 'Bama at the very top.
Penn State moved to No. 25 after a 41-7 win over Indiana State, failing to cover as 38-point home favorites over a non-FBS school.
The betting odds released Alabama as 10-point road favorites and that has been bet down at some books, while the total has fallen from its original number of 43 ½.
The Crimson Tide lead the all-time series, 9-5, including a 3-2 mark when playing away from home. Alabama earned a 17-16 victory in 1989, its last trip to Penn State.
Head coach Nick Saban’s squad tallied a 48-7 victory over Kent State last week as 39-point home favorites, which would have been a whole lot worse if not for it being against his alma mater.
Alabama’s main concern in prepping for this contest is running back Trent Richardson, who gained just 37 yards on 13 carries in the opener. It’s possible that the Heisman Trophy candidate was simply saving himself for the national stage, as he gained 144 yards in place of Mark Ingram in last year’s 24-3 win over the Nittany Lions as 14½-point home favorites.
Bettors will definitely be interested in the Crimson Tide’s 0-4 ATS mark as a road favorite of 3½ to 10 points if the line remains in its current spot.
Penn State has tallied a 17-18 SU record against SEC opponents, with 30 of those games coming under the direction of head coach Joe Paterno (14-16). The team is 5-4 ATS versus such opponents in its last nine tries.
The Nittany Lions defense allowed just eight first downs and 170 yards against the Sycamores in the opener, and will need to play big against a much tougher opponent. Total players will notice that Paterno’s squad is known for low-scoring games early in the season, as the ‘under’ has cashed seven consecutive times in September.
Professional bettors are eagerly awaiting who will be named the starting quarterback for Penn State this week, as both Rob Bolden and Matt McGloin saw action last week. Bolden started the opener and completed 6-of-12 passes for 37 yards, while McGloin connected on 6-of-8 throws for 77 yards.
Alabama’s defense is hoping its Bolden, holding him to a 44.8 percent completion percentage and intercepting him two times in last year’s meeting.
Weather forecasts are suggesting game-time highs in the low-70s and a 40 percent chance of showers throughout.
Luck, Stanford Clash With Duke Blue Devils
By: Jeff Grant
The Duke Blue Devils (0-1) are likely in for a long second week of the season when they host the Stanford Cardinal (1-0) Saturday inside Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, N.C. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. EST and will be televised on ESPNU.
Stanford entered the season No. 5 in the Don Best Oddsmaker Poll and two ticks lower in the opening AP Top 25. The team from Palo Alto, CA, had no problems dismantling its first opponent of the 2011 campaign.
The Cardinal scored early and often in a 57-3 blowout win as 30-point home favorites over the San Jose State Spartans last Saturday. Surprisingly enough, Stanford only outgained its opponent by 136 yards, but a plus-three turnover margin was the difference.
Cardinal quarterback Andrew Luck completed 17-of-26 passes for 171 yards, throwing for two touchdowns and rushing for another. It was a rather pedestrian effort for a player that many have already stated will be the No. 1 pick in next year’s NFL draft.
The betting odds suggest another easy victory for Luck’s squad, currently marked as a 21-point road favorite after being bet up from an opening 15½-point sprad. The total stands at 59. Bettors may elect to lay the large number due to the Cardinal being 5-2 ATS as a road favorite the last two-plus seasons, while the ‘under’ is 5-2 in those contests as well.
Duke would like to hit the reset button to the start of its 2011 college football campaign, dropping a 23-21 home contest to the Richmond Spiders, a member of the Football Championship Subdivision. The Blue Devils have actually dropped three of the last six meetings in the series, but last Saturday’s result was shocking due to finishing with a 379-288 yardage advantage.
Fourth-year head coach David Cutcliffe was miffed at the performance due to the fans in Durham welcoming back 17 starters from last year’s squad, including junior quarterback Sean Renfree. The top returning signal-caller in the Atlantic Coast Conference managed to complete 23-of-33 passes for 201 yards, but failed to throw for a single touchdown.
Many insiders are expecting the Blue Devils’ offense to be able to trade scores with the Cardinal despite last week’s showing, as the unit has averaged 351.2 yards of total offense per game the last three seasons.
Over the last two-plus campaigns, Duke has been an underdog of 10½ to 21 points, posting a 5-1 ATS mark in those contests. It’s important to note that not a single one of those games occurred on its home field.
Weather forecasts suggest sunny skies and comfortable temperatures in the mid-80s throughout the game. The field may be soft on game day due to Tropical Storm Lee passing over the area earlier in the week.
Big 10 Report - Week 2
By ASA
Penn State (+10) vs. Alabama
Penn State didn't solve its quarterback quandary in the blowout win over FCS Indiana State. Rob Bolden and Matt McGloin combined to complete 12-of-20 passes for 114 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. Penn State didn't need a ton of production from either as the Lions ran for 245 (5.1 YPC), allowed just 170 defensively, and had a 95 yard kickoff return for TD.
Alabama is the #3 team in the nation and presents the toughest out of conference opponent that any Big Ten team will face this regular season. The Crimson Tide suffocated Kent State's offense to the tune of -9 rushing yards and 99 passing yards and just 6 total first downs. 'Bama also has a QB conundrum as AJ McCarron and Phillip Sims threw a combined four INT's against Kent State. Something to consider: Alabama outgained the Lions by 126 yards didn't allow a touchdown in last seasons 24-3 win in Tuscaloosa. Penn State is 37-6 at home since 2005 (3-3 as an underdog) while Alabama is 11-2 on the road the last three seasons (8-3 ATS as a road favorite).
Michigan (+3.5) vs. Notre Dame
The final 17 minutes were cancelled (lightning) of the Michigan-Western Michigan matchup last week, but Michigan was up 34-10 and wasn't showing any signs of slowing. Michigan didn't look as explosive offensively as they were last season (different offensive schemes) with just 288 total yards. But they did look much improved defensively with three takeaways - including two returned for a touchdown by LB Herron.
Notre Dame makes the trip to the Big House for the first ever night game in Ann Arbor. The Irish will be extremely motivated after their mistake filled home loss to South Florida to open the season. Notre Dame outgained the Bulls by 254 total yards but turned the ball over 5 times. Tommy Rees was named the starting quarterback after outperforming Dayne Crist last week. Something to consider: Six of the last seven games between these two have been upsets, including last years win by the Wolverines (+3). Michigan has won four of the last five outright (outscoring the Irish by 11 PPG) and is 4-1 ATS in those meetings.
Injury update: Starting CB Woolfolk suffered an ankle injury against Western Michigan but should be ready for the Irish as well as LB Gordon, who missed last week.
Nebraska (-28) vs. Fresno State
Nebraska had an easy win over Chattanooga in week one, but the offense had mixed results in its first game with a new system. QB Martinez led a strong rushing attack with 135 yards and three touchdowns, but overall the offense only totaled 364 over the FCS foe. Defensively the Huskers were stellar, allowing 230 total yards and only 13 first downs. Chattanooga averaged just 1.9 yards per carry.
Fresno could really struggle offensively if they don't play better than they did at Cal last week. The Bulldogs gained just 218 total yards and had 11 first downs against the Bears. They ran for just 68 yards (2.7 YPC) and passed for just 150. They are working with a redshirt freshman, Derek Carr, at quarterback and Nebraska's Memorial Stadium is not a forgiving place to play. Something to consider: For Nebraska; Fresno State is a major step up in competition from Chattanooga and the Bulldogs are no stranger to visiting BCS conference schools. Fresno State is 7-4 ATS in BCS conference road games since 2006.
Injury notes: Nebraska LB Will Compton is day-to-day with a foot injury. Star cornerback Alfonzo Dennard (leg) is unlikely to play on Saturday.
Wisconsin (-21) over Oregon State
Russell Wilson had a strong debut as a Badger after transferring from NC State this summer. Wilson led the offense to scores on eight straight possessions before UW coach Bielema took the pedal off the gas with a 51-3 lead with 8:45 remaining in the 3rd quarter. Tailbacks Montee Ball and James White lived up to their preseason hype with 234 yards on 24 touches with five total touchdowns. Oregon State will be much better than UNLV was defensively as the Beavers allowed just 71 yards on 32 carries last week (albeit to FCS Sacramento State).
Though head coach Mike Riley won't publicly admit it, Oregon State has a quarterback controversy now. Junior Ryan Katz was replaced by freshman Sean Mannion at halftime with the Beavers down 3-14 against Sacramento State. Mannion led the offense to 25 2nd half points (8-of-12 for 143 yards) and tied the game before the Beavers fell in overtime. True freshman RB Malcolm Agnew ran for 223 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Something to consider: Oregon State coach Mike Riley and UW offensive coordinator Paul Chryst developed the same offense when they worked together earlier in their careers. Chryst had two coaching stints under Riley at Oregon State. So both teams should be very familiar with each other.
Injury notes: Wisconsin starting left guard Travis Frederick likely will miss this week's game against Oregon State after suffering a slight MCL sprain in the opener.
Iowa (-7) at Iowa State
Iowa had little trouble pulling away from FCS Tennessee Tech last week and coasted to a win after taking a 27-0 lead at halftime. QB Vandenberg threw for 219 yards and 2 touchdowns in his first start since 2009. Starting running back Marcus Coker fumbled twice and only gained 41 yards.
Iowa State was outgained by FCS Northern Iowa and needed a touchdown run with 40 seconds left to avoid the upset. QB Steele Jantz completed just 18-of-40 passes for 187 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions.
Something to consider: Iowa has won the last three meetings against rival ISU by a an average margin of 24 points per game (average final score of 29-5) and has covered the last two games.
Injury update: Jason White takes over as backup running back to Coker this week after freshman Mika'il McCall suffered a season ending ankle injury last week.
Ohio State (-19) vs. Toledo
The Buckeyes thoroughly dominated Akron last week. OSU had 427 more yards and 22 more first downs and the Zips were completely outmatched by the Buckeyes. QB's Bauserman and Miller combined to complete 20-of-28 passes for 293 yards and four touchdowns and both will split time again this week.
Toledo is no slouch of an opponent. The Rockets are the favorite to win the MAC this season and head coach Tim Beckman has the recent history of taking down BCS Schools. Toledo took down Michigan in 2008, Colorado in 2009, and Purdue in 2010. They only lost nine lettermen from last year's squad and tallied up 58 points and 591 yards in a week one win over New Hampshire. Something to consider: Ohio State was 7-2 ATS as a double digit favorite last season and 8-0 ATS at home. Toledo HC Beckman served as a CB's coach at OSU in 2005-06 and the Rockets are a surprising 4-5 against the Big Ten Since 2000.
Suspension update: OSU reinstated four players - RB Jordan Hall, LB Jordan Whiting, CB Travis Howard, and DB Corey Brown - after they were suspended for the season opener.
Michigan State (-32) vs. Florida Atlantic
Michigan State used a strong 2nd half to pull away from FCS Youngstown State last week - but failed to cover the 34-point spread. QB Kirk Cousins lived up to the preseason hype by completing 18-of-22 passes (82%) for 222 yards. The RB trio of Baker, Bell, and Caper combined for 153 yards (5.5 YPC) and three touchdowns.
Florida Atlantic was completely shutdown on offense against Florida last week. The Owls gained just 137 total yards and had 11 first downs in its trip to Gainesville (L 3-41). The Owls averaged just 1.0 yard per carry (30 carries for 30 yards) and were 2-of-13 on third downs. FAU is 0-19 in true road games against BCS schools, losing by an average score of 45-9.
Something to consider: Although they have a poor record in BCS road games, FAU has performed rather well against MSU in the last two meetings (2008 & 2010). The Owls covered both games and lost by 17 and 13, respectively.
Minnesota (-19.5) vs. New Mexico State
The Gophers didn't come away with a win against USC but showed that they could be a force to be reckoned with in the Big Ten this season. They struggled to slow USC's passing offense (304 yards, 3 touchdowns), but limited points in the narrow 17-19 defeat. Minnesota is 14-2 since 1995 in home openers, but did lose to FCS South Dakota last year.
New Mexico State was 2-10 a year ago and was dominated by Ohio at home in the opener last week. The Aggies had just six total rushing yards (0.3 YPC) while allowing the Bobcats to rush for 241. QB Manley passed for 362 yards and could have another big day if the Gophers don't shore up their pass defense.
Something to consider: Minnesota hasn't been a double digit favorite against an FBS school since 2007 (overtime loss to Bowling Green). They are just 4-9 ATS as a home favorite since 2007 (9-18 straight up at home over that span).
Purdue (-1) at Rice
Purdue needed a field goal block at the end of the game to avoid overtime against Middle Tennessee State last week. Fill-in QB Caleb TerBush completed 19-of-33 passes for 219 yards and two scores. Another bright spot was RB Bolden, who rushed for 120 yards after missing all of last season with a torn ACL. Defense will be the focus this week after Purdue surrendered 460 yards to MTSU.
Rice was only losing by four points midway through the 3rd quarter before surrendering three late touchdowns in the 25-point defeat. The Owls allowed 506 total yards to the Longhorns and struggled mightily against Texas' defense; tallying just 224 total yards.
Something to consider: Purdue has dropped three straight road openers by an average of 10 points per game and the Boilers are 3-8 on the road since 2008.
Injury update: 2010 starting QB Robert Marve returned to practice this week and could suit up for the Boilers on Saturday (splitting time with TerBush).
Indiana (+6.5) vs. Virginia
Indiana was pushed around by Ball State last week. BSU had more first downs and more total yards and spoiled the Hoosiers home opener. Ed Wright-Baker won the QB job over the summer and remains under center after a strong performance last week (20-of-32 for 272 yards with one touchdown).
Virginia was a bottom feeder in the ACC last season but returns 18 starters to form a much improved squad. They dominated FCS William & Mary last week, 40-3, with a balanced attack of 240 rushing yards and 256 passing yards.
Something to consider: Virginia beat Indiana, 47-7, back in 2009. The Cavs torched UI for 536 total yards and five rushing touchdowns. However, Virginia has dropped five straight road openers by 17 points per game.
Injury update: Two starters, LB Beckum and RT Hager, sustained injuries in the opener and aren't expected to play.
Added Games
Northwestern (-32) vs. Eastern Illinois
The Wildcats recorded conferences most impressive victory of the opening week, beating Boston College on the road without star quarterback Dan Persa. QB Kain Colter completed 17-of-24 passes in his absence and led the Wildcats to 424 yards of total offense against a stout defensive unit.
Eastern Illinois finished 2-9 last season and lost to Big Ten member Iowa, 7-37. Northwestern is 4-0 against FCS opponents since 2007, winning by an average score of 36-6.
Injury update: Persa remains questionable this week, and don't expect Northwestern to rush him back against an FCS team if he's not fully ready.
Illinois vs. South Dakota State
Illinois pulled away from Arkansas State after a slow start for an 18-point victory last week. Sophomore QB Scheelhaase was impressive with 267 passing yards and two touchdowns while the running backs combined to rush for 202 yards. Arkansas State is no slouch offensively and the Illini played well, allowing just 350 total yards and 15 first downs.
FCS South Dakota State was 5-6 last season including a 17-3 loss to Nebraska. The Illini can't get caught looking ahead to a marquee matchup against Arizona State next week.
Something to consider: Illinois is 7-0 against FCS opponents over the last 8 seasons with an average score of 42-13.
Alabama at Penn State: What Bettors Need to Know
Alabama Crimson Tide at Penn State Nittany Lions (+10, 42)
THE STORY: When No. 2 Alabama travels to No. 20 Penn State on Saturday, it won’t be just a matchup of ranked teams and two of college football’s most storied programs. It will be the continuation of quarterback auditions at both schools. Alabama used sophomore AJ McCarron and freshman Phillip Sims in last week’s 48-7 season-opening victory over Kent State. McCarron passed for 226 yards and a touchdown against the Golden Flashes, but threw two interceptions. Sims also was picked off twice, passing for 73 yards. Both are expected to play this week.
Penn State, which opened the season with a 41-7 rout of Indiana State, also deployed two quarterbacks in its opener. Sophomore Rob Bolden started, passing for 37 yards. Senior Matt McGloin passed for 77 yards. Both are expected to play this week. Neither threw a touchdown in the opener as the Nittany Lions relied on a ground game that piled up 245 yards.
Alabama leads the all-time series 9-5. Before last season’s 24-3 Alabama victory in Tuscaloosa, the two teams had not met since 1990.
TV: ABC 3:30 p.m. ET
LINE MOVES: Most books opened with Alabama as a 10.5-point road favorite. The spread has dropped to -10 in favor of the Crimson Tide as of Friday afternoon. The total opened as high as 43.5 points but has since been bet down to 42.
ABOUT ALABAMA (1-0): With former Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram now in the NFL, Trent Richardson has become the focal point of the Crimson Tide running game. The junior rushed for three touchdowns against the Golden Flashes. Against Penn State last season, Richardson rushed for 144 yards and a touchdown as Ingram sat with a knee injury. Freshman linebacker Trey Depriest won SEC Co-Freshman of the Week honors, leading the Crimson Tide with 10 tackles against Kent State.
ABOUT PENN STATE (1-0): Like Alabama, the Nittany Lions have a new leader at running back. Sophomore Silas Redd scored two touchdowns and rushed for 104 yards against Indiana State. Redd figures to face a much stiffer challenge this week: Alabama leads the nation in rushing defense after holding Kent State to minus-9 yards.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Penn State head coach Joe Paterno, 84, has been a part of all 14 previous Penn State-Alabama games, dating back to the first meeting in the 1959 Liberty Bowl, when Paterno was an assistant coach.
2. 532 – The combined win total for Paterno (402) and Alabama head coach Nick Saban (130).
3. Paterno, who coached from the press box last week, said chances are good he’ll be on the sidelines Saturday.
WEATHER: Thundershowers could take the happy out of Happy Valley. The forecast is calling for a 40 percent chance of rain.
TRENDS:
- Crimson Tide are 7-0 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
- Nittany Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as home underdogs.
- Over is 8-1-1 in Crimson Tide last 10 non-conference games.
- Under is 7-1 in Nittany Lions last eight non-conference games.
PREDICTION: Alabama 21, Penn State 13 – The Crimson Tide have more weapons on offense and a better defense, and that will be enough to grind out a hard-fought victory in Happy Valley.
SEC Showdowns
By Brian Edwards
Let’s begin our SEC discussion with the league’s Week 2 lid-lifter that’ll take place on The Plains, where Auburn (1-0 straight up, 0-1 against the spread) will play host to Mississippi St. in the conference opener for both programs.
Most sports books are listing Mississippi State (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) as a six-point favorite with a total of 57. The Wynn opened the Bulldogs as one-point ‘chalk’ late Sunday afternoon but when other shops chimed in an hour or so later, they had the number at six. By Monday at lunch, most spots were at seven before the number gradually drifted down to 6 ½ or six. With AU money coming in Thursday night, a few books were at 5 ½ on Friday morning.
Dan Mullen’s team has had a couple of extra days of rest after destroying Memphis 59-14 as a 30-point road favorite. Vick Ballard rushed for 166 yards and three touchdowns on just 10 carries, while Chris Relf threw for 202 yards and a pair of TDs and also rushed for 51 yards.
Relf connected with Chad Bumphis on a 44-yard scoring strike to open the scoring. He found Arceto Clark for a 35-yard TD pass in the second quarter and MSU raced out to a 31-7 lead by intermission.
Gene Chizik’s squad won its 16th straight game in Week 1 but didn’t have it nearly as easy as Mississippi St. did. The Tigers had to rally from a 10-point deficit in the last three minutes to capture a 42-38 win over Utah St. as 23-point home favorites.
After the Aggies took a 38-28 lead, AU trimmed the deficit to three on a 15-yard TD pass from Barrett Trotter to Philip Lutzenkirchen at the 2:07 mark. Next, the Tigers recovered an onside kick to set up the game-winning drive.
With 30 ticks remaining, Michael Dyer scored on a one-yard plunge (or did he?!) on a second-and-goal play. The replay clearly showed that Dyer didn’t get in the end zone, reaching the ball over the plane after he’d been stuffed. Nevertheless, the call was confirmed after video review. (To be clear, I’m not saying AU wouldn’t have won anyway. If the call had been reversed, it still had a third-and-goal play from an inch away and if that play went bad, it still could’ve forced overtime with a field goal.)
AU has beaten MSU in the last three head-to-head meetings and owns a 7-2 spread record in the last nine encounters. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these SEC West rivals.
Auburn won a 17-14 decision as a one-point favorite in Starkville last year. MSU was nearly in field-goal range before a last-gasp drive stalled at around midfield in the final minute.
The SEC Network will have the telecast at 12:20 p.m. Eastern.
Alabama (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) will go on the road to Happy Valley and face Penn St. in a non-conference battle between two of college football’s most storied programs. Most books are listing the Crimson Tide as a 10-point favorite with a total of 42. Gamblers can take PSU on the money line for a plus-320 return (risk $100 to win $320).
When these schools met in Tuscaloosa last season, Alabama captured a 24-3 win as a 13 ½-point home ‘chalk.’ But Nick Saban’s team had a veteran QB (Greg McElroy) in 2010 and this time around, it will have A.J. McCarron under center for his first career road start.
McCarron and Phillip Sims both threw two interceptions apiece in last week’s 48-7 win over Kent St. as a 39-point home favorite. ‘Bama out-yarded the Flashes 482-90, demonstrating to all that it most likely has the nation’s nastiest defense. Trent Richardson rushed for just 37 yards but he had three rushing touchdowns, while Marquiz Maze had eight receptions for 118 yards and one score.
Penn St. (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) failed to cover the number in a 41-7 home win over Indiana St. as a 38-point home favorite. Silas Redd was the catalyst with 104 rushing yards for a pair of TDs on just 12 totes.
Since 2004, Penn St. has been a home underdog eight times, compiling a 5-3 spread record. The Nittany Lions have been double-digit home ‘dogs just once during that stretch, taking the cash in a 20-13 loss to Purdue. Alabama has been a road favorite 15 times on Nick Saban’s watch, going 6-3 versus the number.
ABC will provide television coverage at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
South Carolina (1-0 SU, 0-1) got off to a rough start in Week 1, spotting East Carolina a 17-0 lead before Steve Spurrier decided to replace Conner Shaw with senior QB Stephen Garcia. From there, it was all Gamecocks who went on to prevail by a 56-37 count. However, that wasn’t enough for USC backers as ECU took the cash as a 20 ½-point underdog.
Garcia ran for a pair of touchdowns and threw for another when he connected with Ace Sanders from three yards out. Heisman candidate Marcus Lattimore ran for 112 yards and three TDs on 23 carries. Alshon Jeffery had five receptions for 92 yards.
Georgia (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) lost for the eighth time in its last 14 games to warm Mark Richt’s hot seat up even more. Boise St. came into Atlanta and beat the Dawgs 35-21 as a three-point favorite. The Broncos fell behind 7-0 early before ripping off 28 consecutive unanswered points on the way to a victory that was easier than the final score indicated.
UGA is in just its third home underdog spot of Richt’s 11-year tenure, but we should note that it failed to cover the spread in both previous situations – vs. South Carolina in ’01 and vs. Tennessee in ’06. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks are 6-3 ATS as road favorites under Spurrier.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Since 1985, the ‘under’ has cashed in six of seven head-to-head meetings between ‘Bama and PSU.
The ‘under’ is on an incredible 13-1 run in the last 14 games between USC and UGA.
Oregon St. star WR James Rodgers remains ‘out’ along with several other key players who weren’t in uniform for last week’s 29-28 home loss to Sacramento St. Things don’t get any easier for the Beavers, who are 21-point underdogs against Wisconsin at Camp Randall. The noon Eastern start time (9:00 a.m. on the West coast) won’t help Mike Riley’s cause, either.
Mississippi St. is a road favorite for just the second time against an SEC foe in the last six years.
Florida DE Sharirf Floyd will miss the UAB game, but he’ll be back in action next week against Tennessee after serving a NCAA-mandated two-game suspension.
Games to Watch - Week 2
By Brian Edwards
Oregon State at Wisconsin
The Wynn opened Wisconsin as a 16-point favorite Sunday night and I immediately noted (via twitter) that that number was way too short and that I had made the Badgers 21-point 'chalk.' When the other books chimed in over the next hour and change, most went with Wisconsin by 18 or 18½. By Monday afternoon, the number had settled at 21 and the total went out at 57 late Tuesday. Brett Bielema's team's team raced out to a 51-3 lead over UNLV in its opener last Thursday, but it failed to cover as a 35-point home favorite when UNLV got the backdoor cover thanks to a pair of fourth-quarter TDs against Wisconsin's back-ups. The jury is still out on Wisconsin's defense, but the offense looks like a juggernaut with its traditional power running game and a dynamic QB in Russell Wilson, who can make plays with his arm and his scrambling. Oregon St. got off to an awful start last week, losing outright at home to Sacramento St. The Beavers were playing without four starters, including star WR James Rodgers, and none of those four are expected to be in uniform at Camp Randall.
Utah at USC
Utah will get its first taste of Pac-12 play when it comes to Southern California to face USC, which was barely able to hold off Minnesota by a 19-17 count in Week 1. Matt Barkley completed 34-of-45 passes for 304 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Robert Woods hauled in 17 catches for 177 yards and all three TDs. Lane Kiffin's incompetence was evident when a pair of two-point conversions failed following first-half TDs. Those decisions had Minnesota in position to get into field-goal range for a game-winning kick in the final minute, but the Trojans intercepted a pass at midfield with 53 ticks remaining. Utah beat Montana St. 27-10 in its opener thanks to John White, who rushed for 150 yards and one TD and caught a TD pass from Jordan Wynn. As of Wednesday afternoon, most books were listing USC as a nine-point favorite with a total of 52 ½. Gamblers can take the Utes to win outright for a plus-290 payout (risk $100 to win $290). Kyle Whittingham's squad has compiled a 12-8 spread record in 20 underdog situations during his seven-year tenure.
Notre Dame at Michigan
Most betting shops opened Notre Dame as a short favorite Sunday night and the early money came in on the Irish. By Monday afternoon, most books had Brian Kelly’s team favored by 4½, but that number was down to 3½ by Wednesday. The total opened at 55 or 55½ at most spots. I called Notre Dame an overrated squad all summer and it lived up to my expectations in its 23-20 season-opening home loss to South Florida as an 11-point home ‘chalk.’ Tommy Rees threw for 296 yards in relief of Dayne Crist and Kelly has named Rees as the starting QB this week. As for Michigan, it won a 34-10 decision over Western Michigan in Brady Hoke’s debut at The Big House. Unfortunately for Michigan backers, it was unable to cash tickets laying 14 points because the game was called due to weather before 55 minutes was played. When these bitter rivals met last year, the Wolverines went into South Bend and emerged with a 28-24 victory as 3 ½-point road underdogs. They have beaten the Irish in four of the last five head-to-head encounters.
Other Games to Watch
BYU at Texas
BYU rallied from a 13-0 deficit with a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns to nip Ole Miss 14-13 in Oxford. However, the Cougars failed to cover the number as two-point road 'chalk.' Meanwhile, Texas took the cash in its 34-9 Week 1 win over Rice as a 23½-point home favorite. As of Wednesday, most books were listing the Longhorns as seven-point favorites with a total of 48½.
TCU at Air Force
During a six-game stretch last season, TCU's nasty defense allowed only 23 combined points. But in last Friday's opener, Baylor more than doubled that scoring output in just 60 minutes, capturing a thrilling 50-48 win as a four-point home underdog. The Horned Frogs better put that loss in the rearview mirror with a trip to Air Force looming. Most spots have TCU as a two-point favorite with a total of 49.
Cincinnati at Tennessee
Tyler Bray threw for 293 yards and three TDs to lead UT to a 42-16 win over Montana. Zach Collaros threw four TD passes as Cincy cruised to a 72-10 win over Austin Peay. Most spots have made the Vols six-point favorites with a total of 53. They are 3-0 ATS as single-digit home favorites on Derek Dooley's watch, while the Bearcats are 0-4 as road 'dogs under Butch Jones.
Game of the day: Notre Dame at Michigan
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Michigan Wolverines (+3, 54.5)
THE STORY: Both teams will probably be happy if they can play a game without any rain delays. Michigan’s 34-10 victory over Western Michigan was called late in the third quarter, while Notre Dame sat through roughly three hours of weather delays in its season-opening 23-20 loss to South Florida. This is perhaps the most high-profile game on college football’s Week 2 slate as the schools have won a combined 11 national titles and are among the top three programs in all-time wins. Michigan led 21-7 last year, allowed 17 straight points and then came back to win on a Denard Robinson touchdown run with 27 seconds left. Michigan leads the all-time series 22-15-1.
TV: ESPN 8 p.m. ET
ABOUT NOTRE DAME (0-1): The Irish couldn’t overcome five turnovers against the Bulls. Three of Notre Dame's turnovers came in the red zone, with one - a fumble - getting scooped up and returned for a 96-yard touchdown. The Irish were held to zero points in their first four trips inside the South Florida 10-yard line. Coach Brian Kelly has made a change at quarterback, replacing Dayne Crist with Tommy Rees.
ABOUT MICHIGAN (1-0): Robinson looked comfortable running new coach Brady Hoke’s pro-style offense in the opener, but there were still some remnants of the spread offense that he experienced success in last year. Linebacker Brandon Herron was the Big Ten Player of the Week after becoming the first Michigan player in the modern era to score two defensive touchdowns in a game.
LINE MOVES: The spread opened at Michigan +3.5 as was bet up to 4.5 before action on the Wolverines moved the spread to a field goal as of Friday afternoon. As for the total, books originally posted 55.5. That number has come down a point to 54.5 at most books.
WEATHER: The first night game at the Big House could be a wet one, with rain in the forecast for Ann Arbor. There’s a 40 percent chance of showers for Saturday’s contest.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The underdog has won in six of the last seven games in this series.
2. Michigan has won five of its last six against Notre Dame at home.
3. Kelly is 3-0 all-time against Hoke. The two coached against each other when Kelly was at Central Michigan and Hoke at Ball State from 2004 to 2006.
TRENDS:
- Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
- Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
- Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten.
- Wolverines are 7-1 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.
- Under is 15-7 in Fighting Irish's last 22 road games.
- Over is 5-2 in Wolverines' last seven home games.
PREDICTION: Notre Dame 31, Michigan 28 - Kelly and the Irish will be desperate to avoid an 0-2 start to the season for the first time since 2007.
Week 2 Weather Report
Thunderstorms plagued Week 1 of the college football season. What does Mother Nature have in store this Saturday?
San Diego State Aztecs at Army Black Knights (+9.5, 54.5)
There’s a chance of showers at Blaik Field Saturday. The forecast calls for a 31 percent chance of rain starting in the morning and continuing throughout the game.
Central Michigan Chippewas at Kentucky Wildcats (-10.5, 47)
Thunderstorms are in the forecast in Lexington. This total opened at 46 and has moved up a point. However, a little rain could slow down the Wildcats’ weak offense..
Florida Atlantic Owls at Michigan State Spartans (-32, 50.5)
The Spartans could get rained on, with bad weather coming to East Lansing. There’s a 30 percent chance of the wet stuff and game-time temperatures are expected to be in the high 60s.
Toledo Rockets at Ohio State Buckeyes (-18, 50)
Ohio State is due for some rain Saturday, with a 33 percent chance in the forecast for Columbus. Those rain clouds could turn into thundershowers by halftime.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Penn State Nittany Lions (+10, 42)
Thundershowers could take the happy out of Happy Valley. The forecast is calling for a 40 percent chance of rain, which could drop Saturday’s already low total of 42 points.
Purdue Boilermakers at Rice Owls (+2, 51)
Temperatures in Houston are going to climb into the mid-90s, which is something Purdue doesn’t face on a daily basis. The Boilermakers got a taste of the heat last week, winning 27-24 against MTSU but failing to cover as 14.5-point faves in 90-degree weather.
TCU Horned Frogs at Air Force Falcons (+1, 49.5)
There’s a chance of thundershowers in the forecast for Falcon Stadium. Money on the Academy has this spread turning on its head, moving from TCU -2.
UAB Blazers at Florida Gators (-23.5, 53.5)
Thunderstorms and a 35 percent chance of showers could soak the Blazers and Gators in Gainesville on Saturday. Florida opened as a 21-point fave and has been bet up against UAB.
Virginia Cavaliers at Indiana Hoosiers (+7, 52.5)
Rain is in the forecast for Bloomington, with a 45 percent chance of a downpour when the Hoosiers host the Cavs. Thunderstorms could delay the start of Saturday’s game as well.
Ball State Cardinals at USF Bulls (-20, 50)
South Florida is no stranger to thunderstorms after waiting out the bad weather in a win over Notre Dame last week. The Bulls will get more of the same, with thundershowers in the forecast for Tampa.
Memphis Tigers at Arkansas State Red Wolves (-17, 55.5)
Thunderstorms will give way to rain showers at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves have moved from 13.5-point faves to -17 as of Friday afternoon.
Northern Illinois Huskies ay Kansas Jayhawks (+4.5, 62)
Thunderstorms could delay the start of this MAC vs. Big 12 battle. However, the dangerous conditions should pass by, leaving cloudy skies and a 23 percent chance of rain.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at MTSU Blue Raiders (+11, 56)
Thunderstorms could delay kickoff, with rainstorms rolling in later in the evening. There’s a 20 percent chance of rain at Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium Saturday.
Navy Midshipmen at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+9.5, 52.5)
Another game is threatened by thunderstorms early in the evening, giving way to rain. There’s a 28 percent chance of showers at Houchen Industries L.T. Smith Stadium.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Michigan Wolverines (+3, 54.5)
The first night game at the Big House could be a wet one, with rain in the forecast for Ann Arbor. There’s a 40 percent chance of showers for Saturday’s big game, which could be why the total has fallen from 55.5 points.
NCAAF Week 2
Iowa won its last three games vs Iowa State by combined score of 87-15; they were +7 in turnovers in last two series games. Underdog is 7-3 vs spread in last 10 series games, with Hawkeyes 3-4 SU in last seven trips to Ames. Iowa is 4-10 vs spread in last 14 games as road favorite; they had a 148-140 rushing edge in their opener vs I-AA foe. State survived Northern Iowa 20-19 last week, scoring late to edge their I-AA guest.
Auburn was down 38-28 to Utah State with 3:38 left, escaped with win last week after recovering an onside kick; they'll need much better effort to beat a Mississippi State team they've beaten nine of last 10 meetings (7-2 vs spread). Three of last four series games were decided by 5 or less points. State is 2-1 as a series favorite- they crushed a dreadful Memphis team last week. Bulldogs covered four of last five as a road fave. Auburn is 12-7 vs spread in its last 19 games as an underdog.
Tennessee is just 18-20 the last three years, but this is first time since 2008 they've had same coach two years in row; Vols have soph QB and four soph starters on OL- they're 14-8-1 as home favorite since '07, and have rivalry game with Florida on deck. Cincinnati is 9-11-1 as road dog since '04, 5-11 vs spread in last 16 non-league games. Bearcats have three senior starters on OL and ten starters back on defense.
Hawai'i's QB Moniz ran ball for 121 yards, passed for 178, accounting for four TDs in fairly easy win over Colorado last week, as Washington was hanging on to beat I-AA national champ Eastern Washington 30-27, picking off pass in end zone to seal win. Eastern had 473 passing yards. Huskies are 4-12 in last 16 games as home favorite- their QB Price hurt his knee last week, played second half with brace. Hawai'i covered nine of last 12 non-league games; they're 8-6 as road underdog since 2006.
Cal Bears (-10) crushed Colorado 52-7 LY, scoring two defensive TDs, with other TD drives of 31-19 yards. Cal is 11-5 vs spread in its last 16 non-league games, but since '07, they're just 4-11 as road favorite. Buffs are 8-3-1 in last dozen games as home dog; they got outrushed 165-17 by Run/Shoot Hawai'i last week. Colorado is in Pac-10 now but this isn't a league game. Cal outgained Fresno State 413-213 in easy win last week.
In its last ten games as an underdog, Penn State is 1-9 vs spread; this is a huge game for their diminishing national profile, against dominant Bama defense that has 10 starters back from team that held Lions to 283 total yards in easy 24-3 (-12.5) win LY. JoePa is expected to watch game up in press box; he's covered only two of last nine non-league games. Tide covered 12 of last 15 non-league games- they held Kent State to just 90 yards in last week's 48-7 win. First road start for Tide QB McCarron.
TCU gave up 50 points in opening loss at Baylor, now visits Air Force Academy- their last two visits here were both decided by a FG. TCU is 32-14-1 vs spread in league games since joining MWC; they're 10-6 as a road favorite since 2008. Frogs won six of last seven series games, with four of six wins by 24+ points, but last win here was just 20-17. Hosts covered four of last five as home dog- they've got a senior QB who has 32 career starts. Air Force is 19-13 vs spread in last 32 MWC games.
Home side won nine of last ten NC State-Wake Forest games, with dogs 9-5 vs spread in last 14; Wolfpack lost last four visits here, allowing 33.3 ppg. State is 12-8 vs spread on road under O'Brien; they covered 17 of last 24 ACC games, but are just 9-26 vs spread in last 25 games as faves. Wake lost opener in OT at Syracuse despite passing for 326 yards and outgaining the hosts by 107 yards. State's QB is making first road start; they have no seniors on OL. Deacons have four senior starters on OL.
Veteran QB Moore was 28-34/261 passing vs Georgia last week; Boise had 24 first downs, now Dawgs face another senior QB in Garcia, who rallied South Carolina from 17-0 deficit vs East Carolina last week. 0-2 start would be brutal for embattled Georgia coach Richt, who beat South Carolina five of last seven years. Four of last five series games were won by 5 or less points. Gamecock are 18-11 in last 29 games as favorite, 7-3 in last ten as road favorite. Dawgs are 5-8 in last 13 games as the dog.
BYU was down 13-0 in 4th quarter last week at Ole Miss, wound up a winner thanks to ugly defensive TD; Cougars had just 91 rushing yards, outgained Rebels 316-208 but Ole Miss starting QB was suspended for game. Texas had 229 rushing yards, 277 passing in methodical win over Rice; total yards were 506-224, but game was only 13-6 at half. Texas is 4-8 in last dozen games as favorite- they've got junior QB and start three sophs on OL. Second straight trip east of Mississippi for Cougars.
Utah's first-ever Pac-12 game will be played on Coliseum field that was chewed up by a concert this week; not good. Norm Chow returns to LA running Utes' offense-- Utah was 24-15-1 vs spread in last 40 games in MVC- since 2006, they're 4-5 as road underdog. USC didn't score after halftime last week, running ball for only 64 yards, passing for 304, with prolific WR Woods running amok in shaky 21-19 win vs Minnesota. SC covered only three of last twelve games as a home favorite.
Since 2007, Central Florida is 12-6-1 as home favorite; they're 8-4 in last dozen non-league games. Knights have electric soph QB who can really run, and an experienced OL (87 returning starts). Boston College lost at home to Northwestern last week, giving up 227 rushing yards. BC threw ball for surprisingly hgih 375 yards- they've got nine offensive starters back. Teams last met in '08, with Eagles (-10) winning 34-7, but O'Leary is building the UCF program up- they're much better now than then.
Underdog is 10-2 vs spread in last dozen Notre Dame-Michigan games, with dogs 6-1 SU in last seven series games. Irish are 0-3 SU last three times they were favored. ND lost five of last six visits here- they lost at home to South Florida last week, turning ball over three times inside USF 20-yard line, so Irish switch to Rees at QB. First-ever night game at Big House; expect raucous atmosphere after Wolverines won last week in a game shortened by lightning.