Oklahoma at Florida State: What Bettors Need to Know
Oklahoma Sooners at Florida State Seminoles (+3, 55)
THE STORY: Second-year coach Jimbo Fisher said this summer that high expectations are “why you come to Florida State.” Because Fisher has embraced those expectations, he has the Seminoles on the cusp of returning to national prominence. Fifth-ranked Florida State hosts No. 1 Oklahoma in the first meeting between top five teams in Tallahassee since 2000. The winner will emerge with a shot at an undefeated season and a BCS championship game appearance.
Florida State, which finished ranked in the top five an NCAA-record 14 straight seasons under the legendary Bobby Bowden (1987-2001), can re-emerge as a national power and boost its title hopes by avenging last season's 47-17 loss in Norman. It will be anything but easy. Oklahoma is 13-3 under Bob Stoops after a bye and 72-8 as the No. 1 team in the nation. Florida State, meanwhile, is 1-5 all-time against the nation’s top-ranked team.
TV: ABC
LINE MOVEMENT: Oklahoma opened as a 3.5-point road favorite, but has been bet down to a field goal as of Friday afternoon. The total was climbed slightly from its opening of 54.5 to 55.
ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (2-0): Junior E.J. Manuel, coming off his first-career 300-yard game, will get a stern test from one of the best defenses in the nation. Junior cornerback/punt returner Greg Reid returns from a one-game suspension (team rules). Reid and promising sophomore cornerback Xavier Rhodes have a tough matchup against the prolific quarterback-wide receiver combination of Landry Jones and Ryan Broyles. The Seminoles’ defense, led by Stoops’ younger brother Mark, is looking to avenge last year’s poor effort (487 total yards) in Norman.
ABOUT OKLAHOMA (1-0): Jones (375 yards, one touchdown) and Broyles (14 catches, 158 yards one TD) were in mid-season form in a 47-14 victory over Tulsa on Sept. 3. The passing game will be even more dangerous upon the return of sensational sophomore wide receiver Kenny Stills, who served a one-game suspension for his DUI arrest in January. Highly regarded sophomore Corey Nelson continues to start in place of All-American linebacker Travis Lewis (broken toe).
TRENDS:
- Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as road favorites.
- Seminoles are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games.
- Under is 5-2 in Sooners last seven games as favorites.
- Under is 10-4 in Seminoles last 14 games overall.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. “This is the test. … This is the game you want to live for.” - Florida State safety Lamarcus Joyner, on facing the No. 1 team.
2. Lewis, who has 362 tackles in three seasons, tweeted Monday: "Won't be playing this week. Still another week away. Sorry Sooner fans."
3. This is the first contest between top five teams at Doak Campbell Stadium since the No. 3 Seminoles pounded No. 4 Florida 30-7 in 2000.
PREDICTION: Oklahoma 37, Florida State 27 - The Seminoles aren’t on the Sooners’ level just yet. Florida State’s only hope is to control the clock with its solid running game and keep Jones and Broyles off the field.
Sunshine Showdowns
By Brian Edwards
Florida State (2-0 straight up, 1-1 against the spread) finished in the top five of the national rankings for 14 straight seasons from 1987-2000. Ironically, that historic run ended in a 13-2 loss to Oklahoma in the 2000 BCS Championship Game.
Since 2001, the Seminoles have faded into mediocrity. On many occasions, pundits have suggested that they were poised for a climb back to the top of college football’s upper echelon.
Once again here in 2011, there are many who believe FSU is ready to turn the corner in Jimbo Fisher’s second season at the helm. This fact is evidenced by a No. 5 spot in this week’s AP rankings.
However, I have FSU at No. 11 in my power rankings. I’m far from sold on junior quarterback E.J. Manuel, who has just as many interceptions (12) as touchdown passes (12) during his collegiate career. (And those numbers were 6/10 coming into this year before Manuel torched a pair of cupcake squads in Weeks 1 and 2.)
As for Oklahoma, it has one of the country’s premier QBs in Landry Jones, who has a career touchdown-to-interception ratio of 65/26. He led OU on four consecutive TD drives to begin last year’s 47-17 shellacking of the ‘Noles in Norman.
This obviously gives FSU the revenge angle. And yes, it’s logical to think things could be different at Doak Campbell Stadium at night.
Therefore, it’s understandable that as of late Friday afternoon, most sports books were listing Oklahoma (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) as a three-point favorite with a total of 55. After opening at 3½, the number dipped to three late Monday and early Tuesday and has held steady since then.
Gamblers can take FSU on the money line for a plus-135 return (risk $100 to win $135).
The ‘Noles have posted a pair of wins over ULM (34-0) and Charleston Southern (62-10), although they failed to cover the number as 55 ½-point home favorites last week. FSU backers did cash tickets laying 30 ½ points against the WarHawks.
OU had an open date in Week 2 after trashing Tulsa 47-14 as a 25-point home ‘chalk’ in its season opener. Jones completed 35-of-47 passes for 375 yards and one TD without being intercepted. Ryan Broyles hauled in 14 receptions for 158 yards and one score, while RB Dominique Whaley rushed 18 times for 131 yards and four TDs.
Since 1976, Oklahoma has won all five head-to-head meetings against FSU.
ABC will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
While OU and FSU go at it in Tallahassee, Miami (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) will take on Ohio St. in South Florida. Most spots have installed the Hurricanes as 2½-point favorites with the total in the 46-47 range. Bettors can take the Buckeyes to win outright for a plus-115 payout (risk $100 to win $115).
Ohio St. (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) looked good in its 42-0 season-opening win over Akron at The Horseshoe. However, the Bucks barely got past Toledo last week, winning a 27-22 decision. They never threatened to cover the spread as 18-point home favorites.
Miami was off last week after losing 32-24 at Maryland the previous Monday. The ‘Canes let down their backers as four-point road underdogs.
Al Golden will put out a different product than the one that lost to the Terps, however. UM has several starters back in the lineup after serving one-game suspensions, including long-time starting QB Jacory Harris.
This is a double-revenge game for Miami, which lost the controversial 2002 BCS Championship Game to Ohio St. in double overtime. Then at The ‘Shoe last season, the Buckeyes collected a 36-24 triumph as eight-point home favorites.
Harris threw four of his 39 career interceptions in last season’s loss in Columbus.
ESPN will provide television coverage at 7:30 p.m. Eastern.
College football betting weather report: Week 3
Auburn Tigers at Clemson Tigers (-3.5, 60.5)
Memorial Stadium could get wet and wild when the Tigers clash with the Tigers. There’s a 32 percent chance of rain in the forecast for Clemson, which could slow down the rushing attack of both offenses. The total climbed from its opening of 59 but has since been bet down from 61.5.
Mississippi Rebels at Vanderbilt Commodores (+2.5, 47)
There’s a chance of rain for this SEC showdown. The forecast in Nashville is calling for a 15 percent chance of showers. The total has been bet down from 48 to 47 as of Friday afternoon.
Kansas Jayhawks at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-14.5, 61)
The forecast for Atlanta is calling for a 21 percent chance of showers when the Jackets host the Jayhawks in a non-conference tuneup. Georgia Tech is getting the early action against the Big 12 opponent.
Colorado State Rams vs. Colorado Buffaloes (-7, 50.5)
The Rocky Mountain Showdown could get rained on with thunderstorms in the forecast for Invesco Field at Mile High. Winds are also expected to impact the game, blowing west at speeds in the high teens earlier in the game.
UL Monroe Warhawks at TCU Horned Frogs (-29.5, 52.5)
Winds in Fort Worth are expected to be blowing south from corner to corner at speeds of up to 15 mph. There’s a 13 percent chance of rain Saturday.
Tennessee Volunteers at Florida Gators (-10, 51)
Thunderstorms are on the horizon in Gainesville. There’s a 34 percent chance of rain when the Vols visit the Gators Saturday. Florida has moved from -9 to -10 as of Friday afternoon.
Virginia Cavaliers at North Carolina Tar Heels (-10.5, 48.5)
Rain is in the forecast for Chapel Hill, with an 88 percent chance of the wet stuff. The total has dropped a bit, from 48.5 to 48 points.
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks at Minnesota Gophers (-5, 46.5)
Winds are expected to blow SSE at speeds in the high teens at TCF Bank Stadium in Minnesota this weekend. The Gophers have moved from -3 to 5-point home favorites versus their MAC foe.
Washington Huskies at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-17, 55)
Thunderstorms could dampen the rematch between the Huskies and the Huskers Saturday. There’s a 48 percent chance of rain in Lincoln and winds could reach speeds in the high teens, blowing SE across the field.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at New Mexico Lobos (+20.5, 54.5)
Winds will blow west across University Stadium at speeds of up to 15 mph Saturday. The Red Raiders have grown from 19-point faves to -20.5 as of Friday afternoon.
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Virginia Tech Hokies (-24, 53)
There’s a chance of showers early in this non-conference contest, giving way to cloudy skies alter in the game.
UCF Knights at FIU Golden Panthers (+5.5, 55.5)
There’s a 20 percent chance of showers in the forecast for South Beach when these two 2-0 ATS teams collide in Miami.
Navy Midshipmen at South Carolina Gamecocks (-16.5, 57.5)
Running could be slick for the Midshipmen with rain in the forecast for Columbia. There’s a 38 percent chance of rain for Saturday’s matchup.
Kent State Golden Flashes at Kansas State Wildcats (-17.5, 46)
Thundershowers are in the forecast for the Little Apple. There’s a 50 percent chance of rain for Manhattan and winds blowing SSE could get up in the high teens.
Idaho Vandals at Texas A&M Aggies (-35.5, 60)
Thundershowers could hit Kyle Field Saturday. There’s a 20 percent chance of rain and winds could reach speeds in the high teens. This total has moved from 57.5 to 60 as of Friday afternoon.
Troy Trojans at Arkansas Razorbacks (-23, 63)
The forecast in Fayetteville is calling for thunderstorms and a 57 percent chance of showers.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+13.5, 68)
Thundershowers could slow down a potent OSU air attack. There’s a 50 percent chance of rain and winds blowing of speeds up to 15 mph in the forecast for Tulsa Saturday night.