College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday 9/24

News and Notes Part 2
By Phil Steele

In 2 of the first 3 series Fresno St got an 86 yd TD pass and 52 yd TD pass to jump out to a 14-0 lead. North Dakota pulled within 21-9 at the half and had a 6-5 FD edge. In the 2H ND took the lead on a TD with :09 left in the 3Q, 22-21. FSU answered with a 71/12pl drive getting a TD with 9:14 left for the lead, 27-22. ND got 3 FD’s but at the FSU42 opted to punt on 4&15 and went 31 yds to the 11 with 3:14 left. FSU got 1 FD but ND had a shot on 3&12, Robbie Rouse ripped off an 18 run and FSU took a knee.

When I first looked at the boxscore of Oklahoma St/Tulsa it looked like OSU got out to a huge lead then just let up. They did get a major break early in the game. Tulsa’s QB GJ Kinne ran 23 yards for a FD to the 50 and was hit late. That drew a 15 yd penalty but unfortunately they lost Kinne for the rest of the game. His backup, Kalen Henderson rushed 13 times for 5 yards and hit 6-20-104 with 3 int’s. OSU had 3 TD drives off TO’s. Surprisingly OSU only finished with 32-27 FD and 543-482 yd edges although TU did gain 82 yards on their final 2 drives and their final drive ended on an int in the EZ from the 17. This was an extremely odd game as well as it was orig supposed to start at 9:10 but it was delayed until 12:16 am and didn’t finish until 3:35 am! Coach Gundy said “there comes a certain point in the middle of the morning that your body is not functioning”.

There were 59 points in the Louisiana/Nicholls St game but only 505 total yards offense as almost all the scoring drives were on a short field off of turnovers. Louisiana got on board first after recovering a fumble they drove 12 yards for a TD. Each team did get a 50 yd TD drive, 14-7. NSt got a 36/3pl drive for a TD after an int, 14-14. The game turned with 6:27 left in the 2Q. NSt lined up for the go ahead 40 yd FG and was not only blocked, it was returned 68 yards for a TD. At the half, NSt had a 176-108 yd edge but trailed 21-14. On the 3rd play of the 3Q, NSt was int’d and returned 41 yards for a TD and UL led 28-14. UL fumbled with 9:56 left in the 3Q and NSt went 7 yards for a TD. UL got the best drive of the game, 48/10pl for a 49 yd FG then after the teams punted three times, UL got a 60/1pl TD pass, 38-21. NSt was SOD on 4&7 at the UL26 to end it and finished with a 14-12 FD edge.

A couple straight years Hawaii, on their 2nd straight trip to the mainland seemed to bond by staying on the mainland including a trip to UNLV a few years back when they whipped the Rebels. Last year they came up short in the 2H vs Colorado and this year ended up fumbling 4 times. They fumbled the opening punt setting up a 40 yard FG and later allowed an 80 yd TD run by UNLV. Trailing 17-0 they rallied for a 74/6pl drive for a TD, 17-7. UNLV even missed a 28 yd FG with :06 in the half. UNLV had a 228-123 yd edge at the half. UH fumbled the 3Q’s opening KO and UNLV got a 33 yd TD pass on the next play and after another fumble, UNLV went -3 yards but added a 50 yd FG. UH was SOD on 4&4 at its own 31 and UNLV added a TD with 5:01 left, 40-14 before UH brought in backup QB Graves. Graves drove them 70/8pl for a garbage TD with 1:21 left but UNLV dominated the game.

The Southern Miss/SEL game was not as lopsided as the final score and there was a bunch of FG’s and missed FG’s in the game. SEL came in avg 90 plays per game and SM seemed to want to slow it down and ran for 35 yards. SEL had just 74/285 yards while SM piled up 478 yards. SM missed a 44 yd FG with 6:15 left in the 1Q and SEL faked a punt for a FD and converted on 4&2 and 4&2 on a 16 play drive but settled for a 32 yd FG but on their next drive went 71/12pl but opted for a 19 yd FG from the 2 and trailed 14-6. It was 21-6 and SEL was at the SM45 when on the last play of the half they were not only int’d but returned 60 yards for a TD, 28-6. The first 3 poss of the 3Q were 11, 8 and 8pl drives that resulted in a 49 yd FG, a missed 25 yd SEL FG and a missed 46 yd FG by SM. SM’s final TD came on a 6 yd IR TD with 6:37 left to make it 52-6 and SM was SOD at the SEL35 with :58 left.

Wake Forest did have dominating 29-5 FD and 454-139 yd edges. GW made a game of it early as it was 3-3 after each team had 1 series and GW got a safety to pull within 10-5 but WF pulled to 27-5 at the half and QB Price came out after the 3rd series of the 3Q leading 34-5. Backup QB Ted Stachitas led 26 and 69 yd drives for TD’s to make it 48-5 with 14:54 to go and WF also played backups Cross and Thompson at QB.

The Texas Tech/New Mexico game was delayed by the weather twice for a total of 95 minutes. TT did score TD’s on their first 4 poss of the game jumping out to a 28-0 lead. NM got back to 28-7 and TT was SOD but NM fumbled it right back with 4:40 left in the half and TT went 25/6pl for a TD, 35-7. NM on 4&1 was SOD at the TT34 with :48 left and TT got 20 and 28 yd runs by Stevens for a 23 yd FG to lead 38-7 at the half with a 410-203 yd edge. NM led 59-7 before NM got a 44 yd FG with 7:42 left and a 42 yd FG with 1:30 left.

SMU had a 336-60 yd edge at the half and led 26-0. Northwestern St had a couple shots at scoring as they missed a 29 yd FG in the 2Q, were SOD on 4&6 at the SMU36, after they got a 42 yd IR to the SMU13, they had a 24 yd FG blk’d. It appeared SMU was on its way to extend their lead to 47-0 when they had a 1st & gl at the 1 with 3:00 left but on 4&3 QB Padron fumbled and Northwestern St got a 93 yd FR TD with 1:41 left to avoid the shutout. SMU had a 530-126 yd edge.

Cincinnati got ahead 49-0 in the 1H and rested most of their starters in the 2H. UA has now been outscored 142-17 in their opening 3 games. UC led 59-0 when the Zips got their first TD of the season and the Zips’ 2nd TD came on an 11 yard garbage TD pass with :50 left. This was a different type of game. I can make a case for the game not being as close as the final score in the fact that UC led 42-0 at the half and played their backups the entire 2H and even then built the lead to 59-0 vs Akron before allowing the Zips a 51 yd TD pass with 13:37 left and a 46/7pl drive for an 11 yd TD pass with :50 left. I can make a case that Akron played this closer than the final score in the fact that in the 1H which they trailed 42-0, they were only gained 231-166 and allowed not 1, not 2 but THREE Defensive return TD’s (54,36,53 yds) and also allowed 40 (after PR) and 29 (after int) yard drives for TD’s. Akron actually finished with a 349-342 yard edge and was only outgained 231-166 at the half.

Texas A&M had a big game vs Oklahoma St on deck and rolled to a 350-63 yd edge in the 1H but only led 27-0. They extended it to 37-0 with a FG and a TD on their first 2 drives of the 3Q. A&M missed a 44 yd FG with 7:30 left and Idaho went 73/11pl and on 4&gl from the 1, got a 1 yd TD run with 2:18 left in the game to “only” lose by 30.

I mentioned in the magazine at the start of the year that I thought Houston had a great shot at an unbeaten season this year. That nearly came to an end last week vs Louisiana Tech. Tech basically outplayed Houston and missed a couple of opportunities to put the game away. At the half LT led 20-7 with a 249-109 yard edge. LT scored TD’s on their 2nd & 3rd drives of the 3Q and led 34-7. Houston got a pair of TD’s on their next 2 drives and then LT went 44/9pl and had a FD at the Houston 28, up 34-21. They got a 6 yard run to the 22 but fumbled and Houston went 80/9pl including a 4&4 conversion and got a TD with 7:25 left. LT was int’d but UH punted on 4&7 and they punted 56 yds for a TB with 5:40 left. LT got 2 FD’s and nearly ran out the clock when on 3&6 was sacked for a 12 yd loss and punted with 2:46 left. UH16 got 3 FD’s and then a 32 yd TD pass with 1:36 left to take their first lead, 35-34. LT on 4&2 gained 1 yd to its own 38 with :45 left.

Landry Jones became the school’s career passing leader moving past Sam Bradford although he hit just 18-27-199. Florida St lost QB EJ Manuel for the final 20:00 but Clint Trickett hit a 3&28, 56 yd TD pass to keep FSU in the game and overall looked sharp. Trickett hit 7-15-134 while Manuel hit 13-19-85. This was the game FSU looked forward to the entire offseason and had one of their loudest home crowds in a long time. Trickett was sacked 5 times but that 3&28 TD pass tied it. FSU had talked about this game the previous 9 months. Last year OU opened with an 80/14pl drive for a TD and this year an 80/15pl drive for a TD vs the Seminoles and led 7-0. FSU got a 53 yd FG then got to the OU11 but was int’d on a great tipped pass by Wort who returned it to the 35. Two poss later OU went 63 yards but on their 2nd drive inside the 10 settled for a 21 yd FG. After a 69 yard IR to the 3 OU’s 3rd drive inside the 10 ended in a 29 yd FG as their road redzone woes continued. FSU got an int at its own 22 and Trickett came off the bench for the injured Manuel. He sparked the offense guiding FSU 50/8pl for a 46 yd FG. On their 2nd drive they got 1 FD and punted but his 3rd drive they took over at the OU38. On 3&28 he threw up a pass that the WR jumped between 2 defenders, hauled in and raced 56 yards for a TD and stunningly FSU had tied it at 13. OU converted on 3&12 for a FD and then Stills got behind Reid. The pass hung up in the air and Reid was almost able to knock it away but Stills hauled it in for a 37 yard TD catch with 7:00 left. Harris made another int and OU got 2 FD and their 31 yd FG just made it over the crossbar with 2:01 left to put them 2 scores ahead. FSU was SOD on 4&17 at their own 10 and OU took a knee.

UTEP’s starting QB Lamiason missed the game and backup QB Jay Hall hit 9-28-124 but UTEP defeated New Mexico St 16-10 on the road. They did benefit from NMSt getting inside their 5 yd line 3x and scoring just 3 points. On NMSt’s opening drive they went 80/15pl and on 4&gl from the 2, pass interference gave them a FD at the 1 but they were int’d in the EZ on 2nd down. UTEP got a pair of 10 play drives for 42 and 47 yard FG’s to lead 6-0 with 2:24 left in the half but NMSt got a 14 yard TD pass to lead 7-6 at the half and had a 158-101 yd edge. UTEP had a 47 yard FG hit the upright but NMSt went 67/12pl and on 4&gl from the 3, missed the 21 yard chipshot FG. NMSt went 63/8pl and settled for a 20 yd FG, 10-6. UTEP went 74/6pl for a 5 yard TD run, the key was a 60 yard fake punt on 4&7 from its own 29. They then went 70/9pl for a 37 yard FG, 16-10. UTEP missed a game clinching 37 yd FG with 5:14 left. They went for it on 4&1 at the NMSt33 but converted but fumbled 2pl later with 1:37 left. NMSt got to the 49 but was sacked and fumbled with 1:17 left.

Arizona gave a good effort vs Stanford. A couple of missed FG’s kept them from being tied in the 3Q and eventually Stanford’s big O-line took over. SU did lead 10-0 after a 4&1, 24 yd TD run but Arizona went 79/11pl for a TD with 5:57 left in the half to pull within 13-10 and of course played well as a home dog. Stanford20 went 65/10pl for a 33 yd FG, 16-10. Arizona, with 1:17 left in the half, went 51/9pl but missed a 45 yd FG on the final play of the half. Arizona opened the 3Q with a 45/7pl drive and missed a 36 yd FG and instead of being tied, they trailed 16-10. After each team punted, Stanford went 81/7pl for a TD. Stanford went 3 &out punting on 4&3 but AU jumped offside and SU continued on an 80/8pl drive for a TD then went 91/12pl for a TD to ice it 37-10. AU’s last try ended on 4&8 at the SU41.

The Cal/Presbyterian game was amazing in that in the 1H Presb had 1 FD and that came on their 2nd play of the game on a roughing the passer. Cal had a 347-8 yd edge but “only” led 42-12 as Presb blocked a punt which Bethel ret’d 17 yards for a TD and then Bethel got a 29 yd IR TD with 5:48 left in the 2Q. Cal returned the opening 3Q KO 88 yards for a TD to lead 49-12 and went to backup QB’s Allen Bridgford for 3 series and Brock Mansion for 2 in the 63-12 win where they had a 27-3 FD edge and 581-48 yd edge.

Troy blew a couple of opportunities in the 1H vs Arkansas as they went on a pair of long drives and missed 32 and 31 yd FG’s. Arkansas also converted on 4th down twice to keep drives alive and led 24-0 but Troy got a TD with :07 left in the half on a 50 yard drive to only trail 24-7. Arkansas only had 283-255 yd edge at the half. Troy got a 53 yd IR with 6:12 left 3Q to pull within 10. Down 17, Troy was SOD at the Arkansas 29 and SOD at the Arkansas 7 but did score a 23 yd TD pass with :28 left for the 10 point final. Troy actually outgained Arkansas 457-454.

Austin Peay played Memphis closer than the final would indicate in fact, had a 23-18 FD edge. In the 1H AP missed 33 and 43 yd FG’s where they could have led 6-0. UM got a 42 yd TD pass with 8:14 left in the 2Q and then a 30 yd FG with :25 left to go up 10-0 at the half. UM got a TD and FG on their first two 3Q drives. AP went 80/13pl for a TD to make it 20-6 (4:55 3Q, 2 pt ng). After recovering a fumble, UM missed a FG early 4Q. AP drove 38/9pl and had a 4th & gl at the 1 false start had them go for it on 4&6 and fired incomplete. The game became misleading when on 3&9 Memphis got a 93 yd TD pass with 2:10 left. That would give them the yardage edge for the game. AP went 80/10pl getting to the UM13 but were int’d in the EZ with :06 left.

As you can tell by the final score, Missouri dominated and Coach Pinkel apologized for a 44 yd PR TD with 4:48 left saying he should have instructed a fair catch. UM had a 30-1 FD edge and 744-44 yd edge. WI was without their top RB and LT due to suspension. UM RB Henry Josey only rushed 14x but averaged almost 20 ypc with 263 yards and only played the 1H. UM went 44, 83, 73 yards for TD’s on their first 3 poss then fumbled at the WI32. They went 69/7pl for a TD to lead 28-0 (9:36 2Q). UM punted but then went 65 and 63 yds for TD’s in the final 3:06 of the half incl a 68 yd TD run by Josey with :52 left. UM led 476-50. UM went 74 and 45 yds on their first 2 poss of the 3Q for a TD and a FG. They fumbled at the WI17, settled for a 25 yd FG then got a 54 yd TD pass to Hunt with 7:02 left and added the 44 yd PR TD with 4:48 left.

This was only played for 39:02 as there was one lightning delay and then the 2 coaches met at midfield and let the final 2:58 run out the clock to get to make it an official game. SFA played well early. They went 56/9pl but on 4&1 were SOD at the Baylor 24. Baylor went 45/9pl for a 48 yd FG. SFA got a 50 yd run by Barnes to the 30 but on 3&9 was int’d at the Baylor 9 and ret’d 28 yds. Baylor went 63/8pl for a TD. SFA went 76/13pl but on 2&gl from the 6 fumbled. Baylor went 96/8pl for a TD (11:00 2Q) then 65/7pl for a TD, 24-0 (8:06 3Q) and then got a Griffin 66 yard TD pass, 31-0 (3:14). Baylor after a 24 yd punt started at the SFA34 with 2:14 left in the half but fumbled into the EZ for a TB. Baylor only had a 388-201 yard edge. Baylor opened the 3Q with 50/2pl TD drive, 38-0 (11:21 3Q), 61/5pl drive for a TD, 45-0 (7:52 3Q) and a 51/7pl drive for a 30 yd FG, 48-0 (3:12).

Ohio St QB Bauserman had a horrible day hitting 2-14-13. Miami got a 54 yd run on its first offensive play setting up a 63/4pl drive for a TD, 7-0 then went 53/11pl for a TD. OSU got to the UM40 yd line but was int’d at the 14. Two poss later OSU went 64/16pl but settled for a 22 yd FG, 14-3. UM was int’d 2pl later at their own 23 and OSU got a roughing the passer FD and a 24 yd FG, 14-6. UM28 went 64/10pl and on 2&3 added a 25 yd FG on the last play of the half, 17-6. There were 2 punts to open the 3Q. UM then was SOD at the OSU47. 4 punts. OSU fumbled at the UM31 with 9:21 left and UM went 69/14pl getting a 4th & 1 TD with just :33 left.

Pac-12 Betting News and Notes
By Matt Fargo

Week 3 rewind

Overall, it was another disappointing week for the Pac-12. The conference went 3-4 against FBS competition (Stanford-Arizona was the only conference game) and the Pac-12 is now only 12-9 against FBS non-conference opponents. The teams have just one victory against a ranked team.

The big debacle was UCLA getting hammered at home against Texas with Washington's loss at Nebraska a close second.

There were solid performances as Utah destroyed rival BYU and USC easily took care of Syracuse. Stanford was impressive as well in its 37-10 win over the Wildcats.

Overall, the conference went 3-4 ATS and on the season, the Pac-12 is 13-17 against the number in its non-conference lined games.

The over is now a slightly profitable 14-10 on the season.

Super conference debate

Last week in this spot, it was reported that Oklahoma would be applying for admission into the Pac-12. A week later, Texas, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech are in the mix as well.

It’s not so easy though. The Texas board needs to approve the deal, the conference needs to figure out how to realign the divisions and then the current college presidents need to endorse the teams coming in.

It should be around 10 days when all of the smoke clears and final decisions are made.

With Pittsburgh and Syracuse heading to the ACC, the Big East Conference will be just as much in limbo as the Big 12. Those two conferences are expected to work out some sort of formation of the remaining schools.

Road woes

While the Pac-12 has struggled for the most part in picking up significant non-conference victories, it has really struggled away from home. Teams are 4-9 on the road with Stanford possessing two of those wins and the others coming from California and Utah.

This coming week will be one of the most challenging for road teams as Colorado is at Ohio State, Oregon is at Arizona, UCLA is at Oregon State, USC is at Arizona State and California is at Washington. All five of these home teams are coming off losses in their last game so we could see the hosts stepping things up which could make it even tougher for the road teams.

Based on the looks of the schedule this week, a 3-2 record for the road teams would be considered a success.

Was the fix in?

Last week, sports bettors had the USC-Utah game to hem and haw about and this week, it was the Washington-Nebraska contest.

The officials, from the Big Ten, botched a call and essentially took Washington out of the game. With the score tied at 17, the Huskies took a 23-17 lead after recovering a muffed punt but they were called for interference and it gave Nebraska new life. The Huskers kicked a field goal to take a 20-17 halftime lead which was the start of 27 unanswered points. Whether or not the officials made a bad call, Washington has to shoulder the load of the loss.

"We had a complete meltdown in the third quarter," head coach Steve Sarkisian said, referring to a 2:58 stretch in which Nebraska scored 17 points to pull away.

In addition, the Huskies fumbled a kickoff on their own one-yard line and allowed Nebraska to rush for 309 yards on 55 carries (5.6 ypc). Still, Washington was able to cover thanks to 21 fourth-quarter points.

Game of the Week

It has to go to USC at Arizona State. The Sun Devils ended their non-conference season 2-1 after losing at Illinois Saturday. They can redeem themselves in their Pac-12 opener as a field-goal favorite over the Trojans.

Southern Cal sits atop the Pac-12 West thanks to it win over Utah but the Trojans aren’t eligible for the championship game. That means even a loss for Arizona State isn’t the end of the world as it can still win the division by coming in second place.

Of course, the same can be said for Utah, who already lost to USC, which could make the Arizona State at Utah game in two weeks that much bigger.

Big Ten Betting News and Notes

A familiar opponent for Brady Hoke

Michigan’s new coach faces the worst nightmare for coaches this week - facing the team he just left - when San Diego State travels to Michigan Saturday. The Aztecs are a very solid team featuring a strong QB in Ryan Lindley and the No. 2 rusher in the country.

For Hoke, there is no upside here. If he wins, he should because his team is a 9-point favorite at home. If he loses, it’s humiliating. He’ll have the advantage of more knowledge of his opponent than almost any coach all year, but his former team will also be highly motivated to beat him.

Hoke has seemed clearly uncomfortable with the idea of this game every time he has been asked about it in the last week, and could certainly be tense and on edge as the game starts. That won’t matter as much as it would for some teams. Hoke doesn’t call plays on either side of the ball, and often doesn’t even wear a headset.

Hoke should be more concerned with his offense than his opponent in this one. Denard Robinson still runs like no one else, but his passing is regressing badly. That will become an increasing issue as the season progresses if they can’t get him back on track.

Youth in a line in Indiana

New Indiana head coach Kevin Wilson is building a bright future at Indiana (as the stunning recruitment coup of landing top QB Gunner Kiel in next year’s class showed), but he clearly has some work to do in the short term. It looks like he will be starting three freshmen on the offensive line this week.

Those freshmen played a lot last week and were whistled for 11 false start penalties. A trip to North Texas shouldn’t be a challenge, even for a team as underwhelming as Indiana has been for years. But you can expect more issues offensively from the Hoosiers than you otherwise might because of this inexperience. Indiana is favored by 6.5 points.

Nebraska due for a secondary boost

Current Giant and former Husker Prince Amukamara got all the attention in the Nebraska secondary last year, but a big portion of his success was due to the fact that fellow corner Alfonzo Dennard was every bit the player that he was.

Dennard, now a senior, has been out with a leg injury, but he is reportedly ready to go this week. That’s good news for the Huskers because their secondary hasn’t been nearly as sharp as it needs to be if they want to go all the way in the Big Ten.

Dennard shouldn’t be needed this week as the Huskers are 24-point favorites at Wyoming. This game is a perfect chance for him to get back into the swing of things, before facing QB Russell Wilson and the Wisconsin Badgers next week.

Games to Watch - Week 4
By Brian Edwards

Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M

As of Tuesday, most sports books had the Aggies favored by 3 ½ or four with the total at 68 1/2. Mike Gundy's team has won three in a row over Texas A&M and owns a 3-0-1 spread record in the last four meetings. The Cowboys have won their first three games vs. Louisiana (61-34), vs. Arizona (37-14) and at Tulsa (59-33). Meanwhile, Mike Sherman's team has routed SMU (46-14) and Idaho (37-7) at Kyle Field. This game was a shoot-out last year with OSU rallying from a 21-7 halftime deficit to capture a 38-35 win as a 2½-point home 'chalk.' Cowboys' QB Brandon Weeden has one of the best WRs in the country in Justin Blackmon, but he needs to cut down his mistakes with six interceptions in only three games. Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill has four touchdowns passes compared to just one pick. The 'over' has cashed in six of the last seven games in this Big 12 rivalry.

Florida State vs. Clemson

Most books opened Florida St. as a three-point favorite even though QB E.J. Manuel's status was 'questionable.' On Monday, the line was reduced to two and then on Tuesday the number moved rapidly between 2:00 and 3:00 p.m. Eastern when Clemson became the favorite by one or 1½ points. The total opened at 50 ½. Clemson has won four in a row over FSU in Death Valley by an average of 15 points per game. The Tigers ended Auburn's 17-game winning streak last week by riding the hot hand of QB Tajh Boyd, who now has a 10/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Also, freshman sensation Sammy Watkins enjoyed a breakout performance against AU, catching 10 balls for 155 yards and two TDs while also rushing seven times for 44 yards. Will FSU be hung over from its heartbreaking loss to Oklahoma? It's a fair question for sure. If Manuel can't play, the start at QB will go to Clint Trickett, who completed 7-of-15 passes for 134 yards with one TD pass and one interception in the loss to the Sooners. When these ACC adversaries met in Tallahassee last season, FSU won a 16-13 decision as a 6½-point home favorite. The Tigers covered the number for the fifth time in the last six games against the 'Noles. The home team is 11-2 against the spread in the last 13 Clemson-FSU tilts. Gamblers should check the injury status of several other key players for FSU, including WRs Willie Haulstead and Bert Reed.

Missouri vs. Oklahoma

Most spots opened Oklahoma as a 21-point home favorite, but the number was up to 22 by late Tuesday afternoon. The total opened in the 56-57 range. Might OU be in a letdown situation after winning a key road game at FSU? Possibly, but it is the Sooners' Big 12 opener and it's also a revenge situation after they lost 36-27 at Missouri last season. OU had won previously won seven in a row against the Tigers. Gary Pinkel's squad lost a nail-biter at Arizona St. in Week 2, dropping a 37-30 decision in overtime. However, Mizzou has to feel good about the play of its young QB James Franklin, who has a 6/1 TD-INT ratio and can make plays with his legs as well. RB Henry Josey is getting it done for the Tigers on the ground, rushing for 400 yards and three touchdowns on just 29 carries to date. Mizzou is 12-11 ATS as a road 'dog on Pinkel's watch, while OU is 21-8-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2006.

North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech

North Carolina at Georgia Tech - Paul Johnson's team has been producing explosive offensive numbers this year, albeit against cupcake competition. Nevertheless, we should note scoring outputs of 63, 49 and 66. The Yellow Jackets rushed for an incredible 604 yards in last week's 66-24 demolition of Kansas in a revenge game. They had 12 runs of 20 yards or more against the Jayhawks. Ga. Tech will face a tougher defense this week when unbeaten North Carolina comes to The Flats. But UNC hasn't exactly faced a murderer's row of foes yet this year, either. The Tar Heels have wins over James Madison (42-10), Rutgers (24-22) and Virginia (28-17). Ga. Tech QB Tevin Washington has seven TD passes and zero interceptions. He's also rushed for 72 yards and a pair of scores. GT has won eight of the last 10 head-to-head meetings against UNC, but the Tar Heels are 5-2 ATS in the last seven encounters.

Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina

Vanderbilt at South Carolina - Most books opened South Carolina as a 15-point favorite, but the number was at 16 as of late Tuesday afternoon. The total opened at 53. The Gamecocks are 3-0 but just 1-2 ATS after playing three tough games vs. ECU (56-37 in Charlotte), at UGA (45-42) and vs. Navy (24-21). RB Marcus Lattimore is a leading Heisman candidate after rushing 37 times for 246 yards and three TDs against the Midshipmen. For the year, Lattimore has 534 rushing yards and seven TDs, averaging 6.1 yards per carry. Vandy is the feel-good story of September thanks to a 3-0 start both SU and ATS under new coach James Franklin. The Commodores posted their biggest SEC win (in terms of margin of victory) since 1971 when they trashed Ole Miss by a 30-7 count last week. They own a 3-0-1 spread record in their last four trips to Columbia.

USC vs. Arizona State

This is the last-call late-night game for gamblers in Week 4, as this Pac-12 showdown is slated for a 10:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. Most spots had the Sun Devils as 2½-point favorites with a total of 54 early in the week. ASU is looking to bounce back from its first loss, a 17-14 setback at unbeaten Illinois. Meanwhile, USC comes to Tempe undefeated with home wins over Minnesota, Utah and Syracuse. Matt Barkley has been lighting up opponents with a 9/1 TD-INT ratio. Dating back to last year, the 'under' is on a 6-1 run in USC games. ASU hasn't beaten USC outright in more than a decade, but it is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

College Football Systems
By Robbie Gainous

Last week’s Cajun Sports Wire NCAA Football Power System of the Week qualified the Illinois Fighting Illini over the Arizona State Sun Devils on Saturday in Champaign. The Illini did not disappoint as they won 17 to 14 as a two-point favorite.

The system’s record improves to 13-0 ATS although the average point spread differential took a small hit with Illinois winning by just 3-points. However, that is irrelevant when considering wins and losses and in the end we got a victory for our System of the Week.

For this week’s system, we focused our efforts on winless college teams at this point of the season. Our efforts were rewarded with a system that is 100 percent perfect since 1991 and is active this week.

SYSTEM: From Game 3 on, play ON a winless conference favorite of 3 points or less off a SU loss of 3-50 points as an underdog of 10½-32 points vs. an opponent playing at least its 3rd game of the season. This system has a record of 12-0 ATS covering the spread by an average of 12.0 points per game since 1991.

The system isolates teams that have not won a single game to this point of the season but one the oddsmakers are installing as small favorites. Despite the fact, they are winless on the year teams favored by fewer than four points have been phenomenal coming off a loss as a double-digit underdog under the conditions described in our system.

This week’s system was active one time in 2010 when Akron (-1) hosted Buffalo on November 26 and got the victory 22 to 14. The 2009 college season had only one active date for the system and it was on November 14 when Rice (-2.5) hosted Tulane and won 28 to 20 giving our system another easy victory. We have to go all the way back to the 2005 season to get our next active date and it came on September 24 with Hawaii (-2) hosting Idaho and pitching a shutout winning 24 to 0.

Teams that have qualified in this system have been dominate as evidenced by the fact the average line for these contests has been just -2 points while the average spread margin has been 12.0 points per game. A winless team with a prescription for dominance is just what the doctor ordered on Saturday.

Oregon State was idle last week after suffering a humiliating loss at Wisconsin where the Badgers defeated the Beavers 35 to 0. This week the UCLA Bruins make the trip to Corvallis for a conference battle against the Oregon State Beavers. These factors help qualify Oregon State as our Play ON team this week. With all the system parameters met, this week’s Cajun Sports Wire NCAA Football Power System of the Week qualifies Oregon State as our Play ON team for Week 4 of the college season.

College Notebook
By Bruce Marshall

Air Force...Falcons senior starting LB Patrick Hennessey will likely miss the remainder of the season with a severe thumb injury. The position is one of the deepest on the AFA roster, although Hennessey's leadership could be missed.

Akron...The Zips continue to get boat-raced, now outscored 142-17 in losing their first three games after last Saturday's 59-14 beatdown courtesy of Cincinnati. HC Rob Ianello was forced to bench QB Clayton "Lone Ranger" Moore in the second half at Nippert Stadium after he was responsible for three turnovers (a fumble and two picks) that became Bearcat TDs in a 49-0 first half. Junior Patrick Nicely, last year's starter, was hardly more effective and Moore returned late to throw a pair of 4th Q TDs after the deficit had mushroomed to 59-0.

Arizona...WR Juron Criner, who underwent an emergency appendectomy just ten days earlier, returned to action at least a week sooner than expected for the Wildcats last Saturday vs. Stanford, catching six passes vs. the Cardinal. It mattered little in a numbing 37-10 loss, UA's seventh straight vs. FBS foes, with rumblings of heat beginning to turn up on HC Mike Stoops as Cats were again very imbalanced (just 52 YR after a mere 41 YR the previous week at Ok State) in lopsided home defeat.

Colorado State...Bad news for Ram defense, which lost its best player and perhaps the Mountain West's top defender when hybrid LB sr. Mychal Sisson, a starter since his freshman season, suffered a broken ankle in the Sept. 10 win over Northern Colorado and is likely lost for the season. CSU's stop unit had already seen DE Broderick Sargent KO'd by an ACL tear in the New Mexico opener. Reserves stepped into the breach admirably last week vs. Colorado before the Ram "D" wore out in the 4th Q of eventual 28-14 defeat in Denver.

Duke...RB Desmond Scott, last year's leading Blue Devil rusher with 511 yards, missed his second straight game due to a leg injury last week at Boston College. Duke gained only 81 YR in his absence at Chestnut Hill, but coped thanks to QB Sean Renfree's school-record 41 completions, and a missed 23-yard FG by Eagle PK Nate Freese in the final seconds. Scott is expected to be available for Saturday's game vs. Tulane.

Florida Atlantic...One of many reasons the Owls have started an ugly 0-2 is the absence of impact LB and all-name team Yourhighness Morgan, yet to be cleared to participate this season due to a concussion.

Florida State...Starting QB E.J. Manuel was KO'd with a shoulder injury in the 3rd quarter of last Saturday's major intersectional vs. Oklahoma, and his status is up in the air for this week's ACC showdown at Clemson. RS frosh backup QB Clint Trickett, son of FSU assistant Rick Trickett, led the Noles' only TD drive vs. the Sooners and kept FSU in the game until deep int he 4th Q of OU's eventual 23-13 win.

Georgia Tech...Those passing stats for Tech option QB Tevin Washington are no misprint; 17 of 28 for 637 yards and 7 TDs in the Jackets' first three games! Tech's fireworks continued with 768 yards of offense last Saturday vs. Kansas, with Paul Johnson's team scoring a hefty 59.7 ppg in three outings!

Hawaii...The Warriors were minus key slotback Jeremiah Ostrowski, who caught 19 passes in Hawaii's first two games, due to a foot injury last Saturday at UNLV. Although his replacement Justin Clapp caught 2 TD passes, its doubtful Ostrowski's absence was responsible for a poor showing by the Warriors, who gained only 208 yards and looked completely lethargic in a shock 40-20 loss to the Rebels. Ostrowski is likely to have returned by the Warriors' next WAC game, October 1, at La Tech.

Kansas...Explosive WR JaCorey Shepherd (27.5 yards per catch and 2 TDs in the first two games) missed last Saturday's Georgia Tech tilt with a strained groin, although with a bye upcoming he could be ready for the next game October 1 vs. Texas Tech. The Jayhawks needed a lot more help than Shepherd vs. the Jackets, especially on defense after allowing Tech to erupt for a whopping 768 yards in a 66-24 wipeout over KU.

Louisville...Starting QB Will Stein was KO'd in the 2nd Q last Saturday at Kentucky with a shoulder injury, opening the door for touted true frosh Teddy Bridgewater, a Miami area product, to take control of the offense a bit earlier than expected. Don't be surprised if Bridgewater keeps the job after completing 10 of 18 passes and 2 TDs in the Cards' 24-17 upset win at Lexington.

LSU...Explosive WR Russell Shepard is likely to return from suspension for the Tigers game this Saturday at West Virginia.

Maryland...Key WRs Ronnie Tyler and Quintin McCree were suspended indefinitely by HC Randy Edsall prior to last Saturday's game vs. West Virginia. Tyler, who was the Terps' leading career receiver on the roster with 67 catches, was recently charged with an assault relating to an incident in the dangerous Prince George's County. McCree was not charged in the incident but was similarly suspended for conduct unbecoming to the team. It took QB Danny O'Brien a while to adjust to their absences in an eventual 37-31 loss to the Mountaineers at College Park.

Memphis...RB Jerrell Rhodes, the Tigers' most-explosive back, missed his second straight game last week vs. Austin Peay (a rare Memphis with) with a lingering knee injury. His return date in unknown for Memphis, which could use him this Saturday vs. SMU at the Liberty Bowl.

Ole Miss...The war drums are beating for HC Houston Nutt in Oxford after last Saturday's ugly 30-7 loss at Vanderbilt, Nutt's third loss to the Dores in four years as Rebel coach. The QB situation continues to deteriorate, as starter Zack Stoudt tossed five picks at Nashville and was replaced by juco RS Randall Mackey in the second half, only to return to fire the last two of his five picks. Original starter Barry Brunetti didn't even get into the game at Vandy.

Navy...The Mid defense was thinned last Saturday at South Carolina, with starting LBs Jarrod Shannon (shoulder) and Mason Graham (knee) out vs. the Gamecocks. The Annapolis could have used them both to better slow SC RB Marcus Lattimore, who rumbled for 249 YR in the Cocks' narrow 24-21 win. D.c. Buddy Green hopes to have both back in the lineup for the next game, October 1, vs. hated Air Force.

Northwestern...Expect QB Dan Persa, who has been rehabbing from Achilles tendon surgery, to be in the starting lineup for the first time this season when NU next takes the field October 1 at Illinois. HC Pat Fitzgerald indicated that Persa could have been used in "emergency duty" last weekend at Army; that definition apparently didn't include ineffectiveness by starter Kain Colter, who was pulled in the 2nd half after three straight possessions with gaining a first down. Backup Trevor Siemian tossed a 62-yard TD to Jeremy Ebert (who broke the short pass for a long gain) in relief, but the Cats' inability to control the West Point option and its 381 rush yards proved too much in a 21-14 Army win.

Oklahoma...Star LB Travis Lewis returned to the lineup earlier than expected from a recent broken toe, back on the field last Saturday in the Sooners' 23-13 win at Florida State.

Oregon State...The banged-up Beavers took advantage of last week's bye and hope to have the services of RB Malcolm Agnew (223 YR in opener vs. Sac State but out with a hamstring vs. Wisconsin) and TE Joe Halahuni (66 career catches but has missed both games with shoulder problems) for this week's game vs. visiting UCLA. It's unknown, however, if OSU will have available leading WR Markus Wheaton (14 catches but injured ribs at Wisconsin) or the explosive but long absent WR James Rodgers, still rehabbing his knee that was injured last October at Arizona. Sources say HC Mike Riley, dealing with a QB controversy in Corvallis, is likely to start RS frosh Sean Mannion over 2010 starter Ryan Katz for this week's game vs. the Bruins.

Purdue...QB Robert Marve, out since last year after ACL injury, returned to action last Saturday vs. SE Missouri State and completed 7 of 8 passes in the 2nd Q of eventual 59-0 Boilermaker blowout. Caleb TerBush remains Danny Hope's starting QB for the moment, but Marve's availability now gives Purdue some extra options that were absent when Marve and Rob Henry (out for the year with a knee injury) were both unavailable.

San Jose State...Don't be surprised if HC Mike McIntyre makes his second QB switch in September and goes back to original starter Matt Faulkner for this week's game vs. New Mexico State. Senior Faulkner, who has earlier relinquished the job, relieved his ineffective replacement Dasmen Stewart in the second half last Saturday vs. Nevada. Faulker completed 10 of 19 passes and ignited a late Spartan rally that fell just short in a 17-14 loss to the Wolf Pack.

TCU...RB Ed Wesley, last year's leading Frog rusher, missed his second straight game last week vs. UL-Monroe with a shoulder injury. The deep TCU backfield compensated effectively while churning out 205 yards rushing vs. the Warhawks, and might see Wesley held out one more week vs. FCS Portland State before the Metroplex showdown vs. SMU on September 30.

Texas...As expected, HC Mack Brown has benched original starting QB Garrett Gilbert, who is unlikely to see the field the rest of the season if sophomore Case McCoy and frosh David Ash continue to perform as they have since relieving Gilbert vs. BYU on Sept. 10. McCoy took the majority of the snaps and completed 12 of 15 passes for 2 TDs last week at UCLA, with Ash completing all 3 of his throws in a 49-20 romp past the Bruins.

Texas Tech...Those passing stats for the Red Raiders last Saturday at New Mexico were no mirage; 45 of 50 completions for 446 yards and 6 TD passes in a 59-13 wipeout over the Lobos. Starting QB Seth Doege gets credit for 40 of those completions in 44 attempts as well as 5 TDs in the rout at Albuquerque.

Tulsa...QB G.J. Kinne was KO'd with an apparent knee injury in the first half of last Saturday's (or should we say early Sunday morning) game vs. Oklahoma State and did not return to the game. Backup Kalen Henderson struggled in Kinne's absence, completing just 6 of 20 passes in the Cowboys' lopsided 59-33 win.

UCLA...HC Rick Neuheisel yanked QB Kevin Prince, returning to the lineup for the first time since being forced out of the opener vs. Houston with a neck stinger, after three picks in his first seven passes during last Saturday's humbling 49-20 loss to Texas. Backup Richard Brehaut, who has started more games than the injury-prone Prince since last season, completed only 8 of 19 passes in an ugly beatdown administered by the Longhorns, as the heat gets turned up another notch on Neuheisel.

UTEP...With QB Nick Lamaison sidelined another couple of weeks due to a shoulder injury suffered Sept. 10 at SMU, backup Jay Hall was at the controls for the Miners last Saturday at New Mexico State, and led UTEP to a 16-10 win despite completing only 9 of his 28 passes.

Vanderbilt...Look out for the Dores, undefeated for new HC James Franklin and off of their biggest SEC win in 40 years after last Saturday's 30-7 romp pass beleaguered Ole Miss. Vandy succeeded without a couple of key offensive cogs, RB Warren Norman (knee) and TE Brandon Barden (ankle), but replacements stepped in nicely, especially RB Zac Stacy , who zoomed for 132 YR vs. the Rebs, including a 77-yard TD jaunt.

UAB...Star RB Pat Shed, who missed the Blazers' Florida opener with a sports hernia and wasn't expected to return until Sept. 24 at ECU, was back in action last Saturday vs. Tulane. Underlining UAB's plight, Shed's mere 21 yards on 7 carries led all UAB rushers in a lopsided 49-10 defeat that turns up the heat on HC Neil Callaway. A lot of good new d.c. Tommy West is doing the Blazers, too, allowing 44 ppg the first two outings and surrendering 540 yards to a Green Wave outfit held without a TD in its previous game vs. Tulsa.

ACC Betting News and Notes
By Marc Lawrence

Expanding Minds

With Pittsburgh and Syracuse having been accepted for expansion into the ACC, the talk of a super conference finds coaches, players and administrators abuzz.

“It's all pros and I don't see how there is any cons there,” Miami coach Al Golden told reporters. “I can't even imagine households we just reached with New York State and Pittsburgh. It's a great time to be in the ACC. We've helped ourselves from the football standpoint bringing in two traditional schools in Pittsburgh and Syracuse."

Meanwhile, Virginia Tech RBs coach and recruiting coordinator Shane Beamer loves the recruiting impact of ACC expansion.

“It opens up different parts of the Northeast,” he said. “We’re up in the Northeast a little bit recruiting right now. We’ve had players in the past from Philadelphia, New Jersey and New York and this is another avenue.”

Long time homecoming

Thursday’s contest between North Carolina State and Cincinnati is head coach Tom O’Brien’s first game in his hometown since 1973.

“I played in the last Quantico Marine game at Xavier in Xavier’s last game,” he told the media. “That’s the only time I’ve had any football experience in Cincinnati since I left high school.”

O’Brien said he enjoys playing on Thursday, with reservation. When taking to the road on Thursdays, his teams are 0-5 ATS.

“I enjoy the opportunity to play it, I just don’t enjoy the short week,” he said. “It used to be the game in college football everybody watched, all your peers watched and it was a chance to showcase your university. It’s still something special because it basically kicks off the weekend.”

Something has to give

North Carolina has not surrendered a first-quarter point this season, outscoring opponents 21-0. Georgia Tech has scored TDs on its opening play in each of its three games.

“Something’s got to give,” Tar Heels S Matt Merletti told the press. “I fully expect our defense to not give up big plays.”

The Yellow Jackets lead the nation with 428 rushing yards per game, while the Tar Heels allow 77 rushing yards per game, which ranks 16th nationally. Coach Paul Johnson said UNC's front seven will be easily the best Georgia Tech has faced this season.

North Carolina’s offensive line, which features three starters at 6-foot-7 or taller, will be the best the Jackets have faced by far.

“They’ve only given up one sack in three games,” GT defensive coordinator Al Groh told reporters. “A lot of height, a lot of girth, but what is noteworthy with all that size is their excellent athletic ability. They can really kick-slide, set, change directions.”

Georgia Tech has won its last six home games against North Carolina and 11 of 13 overall, including 30-24 last year in Chapel Hill.

The Yellow Jackets are looking for their first 4-0 start since 1990, when it shared the national championship. The Tar Heels are 3-0 for just the second time in 14 years.

Shouldering the blame

Florida State QB EJ Manuel's availability for Saturday's ACC opener at Clemson remains uncertain. Manuel injured his left shoulder in last Saturday's game against Oklahoma.

"I think it will just be a matter of pain tolerance," coach Jimbo Fisher told the media. "And we'll just see how it goes."

Offensive lineman Zebrie Sanders says the unit is confident in backup QB Clint Trickett, who could start Saturday in place of injured EJ Manuel (shoulder).

"EJ (Manuel) is a good player and brings a lot to the table, including his experience, but it's nothing Clint can't do," Sanders said.

Florida State has struggled in Death Valley in recent years, losing four straight games at Clemson, where it is winless since 2001. Florida State holds a 17-7 edge in the series that dates to 1970.

Clemson ranks ninth in the nation in total offense through three weeks (522 yards per game), making dramatic strides from last season when the Tigers ranked 88th in total offense (334 yards per game).

Florida State Sophomore CB Xavier Rhodes says Saturday's 23-13 loss to No. 1 Oklahoma was the most physical game he has played in.

"Everyone was hitting," he told the media. "Some teams have WRs that are timid about hitting and getting hurt, but WRs, RBs, everyone was out there hitting."

From the database

• ACC Coaches: Duke’s David Cutcliffe is 6-11 ATS as a double-digit favorite… Maryland’s Randy Edsall is 22-7 ATS off a SU and ATS loss, including 13-2 ATS when facing a non-conference foe… Miami’s Al Golden is 13-4-1 ATS at home against opposition with a win percentage of more than .200… Virginia Tech coach Frank Beamer is 27-16-1 ATS away versus non-conference opponents, but only 2-7 ATS against those with a losing record.

• ACC versus other conferences: 9-23 SU and ATS away versus Big East opponents off a SU and ATS win… 3-9 ATS off a win versus C-USA opponents off a win… 12-0 SU and 7-3 ATS off a SU and ATS loss versus MAC opposition.

• STAT OF THE WEEK: Florida State is 14-0 SU and 10-4 ATS in games following its first loss of the season.

Big 12 News and Notes
By Nick Parsons

It is rather unfortunate that all the attention is on re-alignment, because the Big 12 is proving itself to be the best conference in all of college football. In 25 non-conference games, the teams of the Big 12 have a combined 23-2 record, they have the number one ranked team in the nation in Oklahoma and 5 teams in total are in the AP Top 25.

Conference play starts this week and the Big 12 (in terms of entertainment) appears to be doing fine without Nebraska or Colorado.

Anyways here's some news and notes for handicappers heading into the week 4.

Fishy Fishy?

There are a couple games this week with lopsided consensus opinion. The popular plays are Texas Tech to cover over Nevada, Miami to cover over Kansas State, and the big one: Oklahoma State to cover as road dogs over Texas A&M. Books though, are moving lines in the opposite direction: Texas Tech -20 to -18.5 , Miami -13.5 to -12 and Oklahoma +3 to +4.

Basic theory suggests that early money has come in on the unpopular picks. Now it is the main goal of books to balance wagers, if they picked sides every game they might as well just be handicappers, however still take caution that one of these games might be a “trap game”.

Does Offense mean Under?

It's still early but Texas Tech ranks 2nd in yards per game at 624, Oklahoma State 3rd at 601, and Baylor at 564 (remember that they only played 3 quarters in their last game). In plays per game Oklahoma State ranks 1st at 87.3, Texas Tech 6th at 85, Oklahoma 7th at 83.5, and Kansas a surprise at 13 with 81.5.

Now with these stats developing and parity a reality, could we be finding possible value in unders during key in-conference games?

The Oklahoma State Texas A&M total opened at 69 and this is a matchup where 6 of the last 7 games have gone over the total. A shootout is expect, but let us just remember the result of the “expected shootout” between Oregon and Auburn in the national title game.

Both teams are more than capable of putting up 50 points on any given night, but what is often neglected are the defensive gameplans. With the Cowboys and Aggies in the Top 10, we could possibly see a more conservative approach by both.

Oklahoma big ATS Year?

Oklahoma has a perfect 2-0 record against the spread and as National Title contenders they are looking to continue the tradition of being a good cover team. Last year Auburn went 10-4 ATS, the year before Alabama was a respectable 9-5, and in 2009 the Florida Gators went 11-2 ATS .

This year looks to be the toughest year in terms of parity for the Big 12, but that perception may actually make them a solid cover team. The obvious common trait with the three teams mentioned above is that they all played in the SEC and received lines that were well within reach for a national title calibre team to cover.

That is not to say that Baylor, Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State will be walks in the park, but just that future lines will be more fair compared to other years.

College Football Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 4

North Carolina Tar Heels at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-6.5, 57.5)

Why North Carolina will cover: UNC is ranked 16th nationally against the run, which is GT’s bread and butter. The Tar Heels are already 2-1 ATS.

Why Georgia Tech will cover: This will be the first real test for the Heels, and the Jackets can wear down a team. GT is an emphatic 3-0 ATS, winning games by 42, 38 and 42 points (spreads of 33.5, 13 and 14.5).

Points: The over is 3-0 in Tech games, but the under has struck in two of UNC’s three games and is 10-4 in the Heels’ last 14. This is the first true test for either team, which typically means less offense than usual, at least early on.

Central Michigan Chippewas at Michigan State Spartans (-24, 49.5)

Why Central Michigan will cover: Michigan State looked surprisingly poor at Notre Dame last week, so CMU may have found enough in film to hang in there early. CMU is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. the Big Ten.

Why Michigan State will cover: MSU has much to prove after last week’s loss at Notre Dame. The Chippewas have been underwhelming, even with their lowered expectations, 0-3 ATS. CMU is averaging just 16 ppg against poor competition. It will be hard-pressed to put up any more in East Lansing.

Points: MSU’s defense ranks in fourth in yards allowed and 16th in points allowed, and the under is 4-1 in the Spartans’ last five. It may not allow CMU to score enough to push the over, though the over is 5-1-1 in CMU’s last seven vs. the Big Ten.

San Diego State Aztecs at Michigan Wolverines (-10, 59.5)

Why San Diego State will cover: Michigan’s offense is still suspect. Stop QB Denard Robinson, and you stop the Wolverines. The Aztecs can grind it out, which can really help an underdog on the road.

Why Michigan will cover: The Wolverines are 2-1 ATS, with the miss by a half-point vs. Eastern Michigan (-28.5). Robinson, when on his game, is a defensive nightmare. And SDSU ranks 99th against the run. The Wolverines are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 non-conference games.

Points: Both defenses have bent but not broken. These two rushing offenses aren’t the types to shatter that.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Alabama Crimson Tide (-11.5, 50.5)

Why Arkansas will cover: The Razorbacks’ eighth-ranked pass offense keeps the team in games. The defense is much improved from recent seasons. Plus, the team is an impressive 10-1 ATS in its last 11 SEC games.

Why Alabama will cover: The Tide already rolled at Penn State. This will be the first true test and first road game for the Razorbacks. Alabama ranks in the top 10 in every defensive category.

Points: The over is 5-1 in Arkansas’ last six SEC games, while the under is 4-1 in Alabama’s last five.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas A&M Aggies (-3.5, 69)

Why Oklahoma State will cover: OSU has steamrolled the competition, going 2-1 ATS with wins of 37 (-38), 23 (-14) and 26 (-13.5). The offense ranks No. 2 in yards and No. 3 in points. OSU is 6-0 in its last six road games.

Why Texas A&M will cover: OSU’s defense has been suspect in all facets, and the Aggies have clicked so far. That’s a favorable point spread for a College Station home game. A&M is 6-0 ATS in its last six Big 12 games.

Points: The under is 10-1 in OSU’s last 11 games as a road underdog. That’s a big total, but both teams are capable of going over it by the end of the third quarter.

Florida State Seminoles at Clemson Tigers (+1.5, 50.5)

Why Florida State will cover: The Seminoles competed with No. 1 Oklahoma before running out of gas in the fourth quarter. A stellar pass game (325 ypg) and a defense that ranks fifth in yards allowed is a tough combo for Clemson to handle, even at home.

Why Clemson will cover: Clemson proved it belonged after beating Auburn by 14. The offense has had no problem scoring. Meanwhile, FSU is banged up, with several key players listed as questionable, including QB E.J. Manuel (though he’ll likely play).

Points: The over is 4-0 in Clemson’s last four games. Both offenses are ranked high, and both defenses are suspect.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Marshall Thundering Herd (+21, 46)

Why Virginia Tech will cover: Tech’s defense ranks No. 8 in points and yards allowed. Marshall’s offense ranks No. 107 and No. 105 in those two categories. How is Marshall going to score? VT is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. teams with a losing record.

Why Marshall will cover: Marshall has been respectable against the run, which is VT’s strength. This is a marquee home game for the Herd and they’ll come out with everything they’ve got.

Points: Points could be at a premium, at least until VT opens things up in the second half. The under is 6-1 in Marshall’s last seven as a home underdog.

Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcats (+19, 43)

Why Florida will cover: UK’s offense is among the worst in the nation while UF’s defense ranks in the top 10 in most major categories. Meanwhile, Florida has had no problems putting up points.

Why Kentucky will cover: In recent years, the Wildcats have stepped it up in the big SEC rivalry games. It’s a big spread for a SEC road team.

Points: UK will struggle to put a lot of points up, but Florida’s average of 37.7 ppg is going to come down, too. The over is 4-0 in UF’s last four as a road favorite, and is 6-0 in UK’s last six at home against a team with a winning record.

UTEP Miners at South Florida Bulls (-29. 47.5)

Why UTEP will cover: UTEP is 2-0 ATS against FCS competition. The Miners have put up yards but haven’t score much this season. They should eventually break through and put up points.

Why South Florida will cover: South Florida is 3-0 ATS, and that includes a 53-point win on a minus-41. The Bulls know how to put away lesser competition, so this game should be over by halftime.

Points: South Florida hasn’t been stopped yet. If UTEP can hold up its end by scoring two TDs, USF should do the rest.

Vanderbilt Commodores at South Carolina Gamecocks (-16.5, 52.5)

Why Vanderbilt will cover: Vandy is 3-0 ATS, including a 30-7 drubbing of Ole Miss last week. USC is just 1-2 and is one point off from being 0-3. Its defense has been key, which could hold down the score enough to at least cover.

Why South Carolina will cover: The Gamecocks haven’t put it all together for a game, yet won at Georgia and held on vs. Navy. The offense still ranks No. 16 in points. A complete game buries Vandy.

Points: Vandy’s been big on the under, while USC typically hits the over. Vandy’s solid defense vs. USC’s powerful offense will determine how close the game gets.

Rice Owls at Baylor Bears (-20, 66.5)

Why Rice will cover: The Owls haven’t looked great, but they did beat Purdue last week by blocking a last-second field goal.

Why Baylor will cover: Baylor’s offense has run wild so far, averaging 50 ppg in two games. Rice ranks near the bottom in every statistical category on both sides of the ball.

Points: That’s a big spread, especially when one of the teams (Rice) will struggle to score. The over is 8-2 in Baylor’s last 10.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Wyoming Cowboys (+23.5, 57)

Why Nebraska will cover: The Huskers have been less than stellar, yet still average 44.2 ppg. If this is the game that the defense finally catches up, look out.

Why Wyoming will cover: Nebraska has been erratic at best, hence an 0-3 ATS mark. The Cowboys will be fired up getting the Huskers at home. An offense that ranks 37th in points should get its points against a defense that ranks in the bottom half in all facets.

Points: The over is 2-1 in both teams’ games so far. This line doesn’t look to change that trend.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Boise State Broncos (-32.5, 62)

Why Tulsa will cover: Just another game in Tulsa’s amazing non-conference schedule. It played Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and lost by 33 and 26. Still, the offense has put up some points. That’s a big spread and Tulsa is 6-1 ATS in its last seven on the road.

Why Boise State will cover: The Broncos finally get a home game after going 2-0 ATS at Georgia and Toledo and is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 in September. It’s time to have some fun, which means lots of scoring on the Smurf Turf.

Points: The scoreboard will be lighting up all night in Boise. The question is will Tulsa join in the fun?

Missouri Tigers at Oklahoma Sooners (-21.5, 56.5)

Why Missouri will cover: Statistically, the Tigers match up with OU, ranking in the top 25 in points for and against, and 10th and 11th in rushing yards for and against, respectively. To stay within three touchdowns isn’t out of the question.

Why Oklahoma will cover: The Sooners at 2-0 ATS thanks to a defense that has shut down opponents until the game is well decided. The offense has been solid but not yet spectacular.

Points: It’s the same mark as the Oklahoma-Florida State game (which hit 36). OU should put up bigger numbers, but Missouri needs to keep pace. The under is 5-1 in OU’s last six.

LSU Tigers at West Virginia Mountaineers (+5.5, 50.5)

Why LSU will cover: The Tigers have faced formidable obstacles this season already, and vanquished them all. LSU’s defense ranks No. 19 against the pass and No. 3 against the run. WVU can’t run and a one-dimensional offense isn’t going to score on the Tigers, who are 2-0 ATS.

Why West Virginia will cover: West Virginia throws long and scores big, so it’s never out of a game. A big night game typically favors the home crowd, and Morgantown will be rocking.

Points: LSU scores enough to win, which usually isn’t a lot. WVU may find the going tough, especially early on.

Oregon Ducks at Arizona Wildcats (+15. 64.5)

Why Oregon will cover: The Ducks average 50.7 ppg and can throw and run. Arizona ranks 111th in yards and pass yards allowed, and is 1-6 ATS in its last seven against teams with a winning record.

Why Arizona will cover: The Wildcats can’t run the ball effectively or play defense, but they can sling it, averaging 364 yards through the air.

Points: The under is 2-0 in Arizona’s last two and Oregon’s last two, but this has the makings of a high-scoring affair. The over is 4-1 in these team’s last five games.

Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts

Outside of the early, early low limit action on Sunday at the Wynn Resort, the betting action was relatively slow in Las Vegas through Wednesday. There were few moves here and there, most notably Tulsa being bet from a 32 ½-point road underdog to +28 ½ on Tuesday and Wednesday, but nothing else to really to get excited for. The Golden Hurricane will attempt to knock off Boise State on the blue turf this Saturday.

But then Thursday morning came with a wave action across the city as four games were preyed upon.

The Wynn opened Texas Tech as a 15½-point favorite against Nevada on Sunday night. Within an hour-and-a-half window -- after a few low limit wagers moved them up the ladder -- the number settled at -20. That was the market price most sports books opened with on Monday morning.

The initial seeding by a sophisticated group drove the price up with smaller money and then set the market for their plan of attack on the rest of the world at their desired number on the other side.

By Thursday morning the number had been driven as high as -21 at the South Point with -20½ being offered at the Las Vegas Hilton and Wynn.

Then the onslaught happened as the plan of attack came to fruition at every sports book in the city -- at almost the same time -- with Nevada money pouring in. The group took the plus-21, the 20½, the 19, the 18 until they milked the well dry all the way down to 16 putting the Wynn sports book almost right back where they started.

In the Wynn’s case, they had a strong number that was obviously correct with the Sharps, but were driven off of it with low-limit wagers. Even if the Wynn had taken full limits, it’s still a relatively cheap fee to pay for the group when they can force the city into a desired number and then have so many different outs to get their action in at.

This type of activity is nothing new, but it's been glaringly observed over the last four weeks of action on two to three games a week.

Meanwhile, all the small parlay money is on Texas Tech and they don’t care what the line is. By game time, many sports books will be rooting with the Sharps and Nevada to avoid the multiplied parlay payouts.

While the Sharps were in the book, they also took action on Wyoming +24 against Nebraska driving the game to +20½. Missouri got some play on +22 at Oklahoma driving the number down to 20½.

The Wynn originally opened Nebraska as a 25½-point road favorite and Oklahoma -19½.

Ohio State also got some play this morning as it was announced that their athletic freshman, Braxton Miller, would be starting at quarterback instead of Joe Bauserman. The news alone sparked interest in the Buckeyes for their home game against Colorado driving the game up a point-and-a-half to -16.

Central Michigan has seen some action for their game at Michigan State dropping the line from +23½ to +22.

Virginia Tech got some early play at -18½ over at the Hilton for their road game at Marshall and it currently sits at -20½.

The Hilton opened Notre Dame as a 6-point favorite at Pittsburgh and it sits at -7. The Wynn opened Notre Dame at -3½.

Florida State opened as a 3-point favorite at the Wynn with the assumption that quarterback E.J. Manuel would play, but he is ‘doubtful.’ Clemson is now the 2 ½-point home favorite.

The feature games, LSU (-5½) at West Virginia and Arkansas at Alabama (-11), have both got great two-way action and haven’t moved much.

By the way, the Sunday action at the Wynn sports book is fast and furious. It’s a great time just watching the numbers move from so many different limit bettors. The first wave comes when the line is released at 3:00 p.m. PT. After everyone gets their action on their sides, there is a bit of a calm.

Then, shortly after 4:00 p.m., the first offshore numbers come up and it’s a frenzied pace again with bettors now trying get the best of what the difference between the two lines that are out there. And then finally, once the market price looks to be set, there is another wave of action.

If you’re ever if Las Vegas during the football season, you should really check it out.

NCAAF Week 4 Preview

Georgia won its last eight games vs Ole Miss, with underdogs covering five of last seven; Dawgs won last four visits here, but only one of four was by more than 7 points. Both coaches squarely on hot seat. Georgia is 5-7-1 in last 13 games as road favorite, 8-13-1 coming off win. Rebels covered one of last four as home dog- they lost 30-7 at Vanderbilt last week, outrushed 281-85. Not good. Georgia allowed 80 points in losses to Boise St/South Carolina. Both teams' only win is against I-AA club.

Underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in Cal's last seven visits to Seattle, as Bears lost last two trips here 42-10/37-23. Huskies are 4-3 as home fave under Sarkisian, after being 1-9 in last 10 tries before he was coach. Cal had an easy win over I-AA foe last week, while Washington was losing 51-38 at Nebraska squad that started three walk-ons on offensive line. Bears won only road game 36-33 in OT at Colorado, in game where Buffs outgained them by 212 yards. Since 2005, California is 4-7 as a road underdog.

SEC turned down West Virginia for membership this week, not sure that factors in here, but do know West Virginia is home dog for first time in six years; this will be a wild night in Morgantown. LSU already has two wins away from home, beating Oregon 40-27 (-1) in Dallas, then winning 19-6 at Mississippi State last week (-3.5). Mountaineers trailed Nofolk State 12-10 at half two weeks ago, then held off mediocre Maryland club 37-31 last week, getting outscored 21-10 in second half. LSU is 5-6-1 in its last twelve games as a road favorite.

Michigan coach Hoke was San Diego State's coach last two years; when Wolverines hired him, he said he would've walked all way to Ann Arbor from San Diego for this job. Betcha veteran Aztec players liked hearing that. SDSU covered five of last seven as a road dog; they struggled with both Army (14-all at half), Washington State (14-17 at half) last couple games, but won both 23-20/42-24. Michigan is 5-11 in last 16 games as a home favorite; they're +6 in turnovers, have conference opener up next.

Georgia Tech is 11-2 in last 13 games vs North Carolina, winning last six here by average score of 30-20 (3-3 vs spread); Jackets have 115 points, 986 rushing yards in two wins vs I-A opponents, with 378 yards thru air on only 10 completions (17 PA). Tar Heels covered five of last seven as road dog; soph QB Renner has unnatural poise for hia age. Underdogs covered five of last seven series games. UNC is just 7-22 on 3rd down vs I-A teams; they'll need more first downs to keep Tech offense off field.

Florida covered 10 of last 13 games as road favorite, but has Alabama up next, so possible trap game in Lexington vs Kentucky squad Gators have beaten 14 times in row, covering last four; Gators won last seven visits here, with five of seven wins by 21+ points. Wildcats had only 35 yards on ground in home loss to rival Louisville last week; UK is 3-5 as a home dog last 3+ years; they're 8-13-1 vs spread in game after last 22 losses. Florida won last three series games by average score of 51-8.

Underdogs are 5-0-1 vs spread in last six Notre Dame-Pitt games, with Irish 3-2 in last five visits here. Notre Dame has gained 432 yards a game but turned ball over 13 times in three games (-8), worst turnover ratio in country: Irish covered only one of last four as road favorite. Pitt blew big lead at Iowa last week, blowing 24-3 lead late in third quarter, losing to Hawkeyes 31-27. Panthers are 9-2 vs spread in game following last 11 losses; they're 9-7 in last 16 games as home underdog.

Home side won eight of last nine Florida State-Clemson games; FSU lost last four visits to Clemson by average score of 31-16; since 2004, State is just 8-12 as road favorites, but they're 16-8 vs spread in game following their last 24 losses. Clemson failed to cover its last three games as home dog; they're 8-6 in game following last 14 wins. Tigers still haven't led game at half (tied with Wofford, trailed Troy by 3). FSU QB Manuel was banged up last week. First road game of year for Seminoles.

Fresno State won last six games vs Idaho (4-2 vs spread) with last year's 23-20 home win only one of six by less than 10 points- they won last three visits here, 31-21/37-24/40-10, but Bulldogs are struggling so far in 2011, getting outrushed 216-84 in shaky 27-22 win over North Dakota last week- Idaho beat UND 44-14 the week before. Since 2006, Vandals are 6-10 as a home dog. Bulldogs have been outscored 58-25 in second half; they covered five of last six games as a road favorite.

UCLA/Oregon State are both struggling; Beavers switched to Mannion at QB this week, while Bruins named Brehaut starter, first time Neuheisel has named starting QB that early in week. Oregon State covered twice in last seven games as road favorite. UCLA is 4-12 as road underdog with Neuheisel, 5-9 in game following its last 14 losses. Underdog covered 7 of last 10 series games, with Bruins winning three of last four trips here. UCLA got whacked at home by Texas last week; Beavers had a bye.

Oklahoma State scored 38-36-56 points in winning last three games vs Texas A&M, with four of last five in series decided by 5 or less points; Cowboys gained 543+ yards in all three games this year, scoring 52.3 ppg in wins by 27-23-36 points- they're 7-6 in last 13 games as a dog on road. Aggies covered seven of last ten as home favorite; they won first two games this year by 32-30 points. Both sides stepping up in class in this one. Boith teams have senior QB; does that make over the play?

Underdogs are 4-1-1 vs spread in last six Oregon-Arizona games, with Ducks scoring 48-44-55 points in winning last three games by 19-3-10 points. Arizona gave up 37-37 points in losing last two weeks to prolific offenses of Oklahoma State (37-14), Stanford (37-10). Over last decade, Oregon is 18-13 as road favorite; Arizona is 9-2-1 in last dozen games as a home dog. Ducks won six of last seven visits here, with wins by 3-7-38-17-35-3 points. Oregon's last two games were against cupcakes, hard to tell much they've improved since opening 40-27 loss to LSU.

USC won its last 11 games vs Arizona State, winning last five visits to Tempe by 5-20-10-20-6 points- this is first time since '00 Sun Devils are favored over USC. ASU is 12-7 as home favorite under Erickson. First road game for Trojan squad that had only three takeaways in three home wins, by 2-9-21 points- over last decade, they're 6-3 as road underdog. ASU came close to beating Trojans last two years, losing 14-9/34-33; in last six series games, underdogs are 4-1-1 against the spread.

NCAAF Week 4 Line Moves

Action is starting to heat up at the sportsbooks with Week 4 of the college football season just hours away from kickoff. We talked to Jay Rood, sportsbook manager at MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about the biggest line moves on the NCAAF board:

San Diego State Aztecs at Michigan Wolverines – Open: 61, Move: 57

The total is dropping steadily for this matchup between UM coach Brady Hoke and his former program. Early sharp money is chopping down the number, and Rood believes the Wolverines’ last-minute explosions are the reason. He thinks the total may be a bit inflated and expects public money on the over to push the total back up before kickoff.

“You don’t want to drop this too low,” he says, “and give sharps two whacks at it.”

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas A&M Aggies – Open: Texas A&M -3, Move: -4.5

Rood says money is split on this since moving the spread from 3 to 4. He fells the 4-point spread is about right, giving home-field advantage and a slight nod to the Aggies. The total for this game opened as high as 69.5 but sharp bets on the under have taken the number down to 68 points. Rood says it’s been relatively quiet since the move.

Florida State Seminoles at Clemson Tigers – Open: Clemson +2.5, Move: Clemson -2.5

This is one of the biggest line moves on the Week 3 board, with action on the Tigers flipping the spread on the home team from underdog to favorite. Rood says a lot of this movement has to do with the injury to FSU QB E.J. Manuel, who reportedly separated his shoulder versus Oklahoma.

“From what my sources are saying, (Manuel) won’t be playing,” says Rood. “At practice this week, he was having a tough time even picking up a glass of Gatorade.”

California Golden Bears at Washington Huskies – Open: Washington -3, Move: Pick

According to Rood, this Pac-12 matchup is by far the most bet game on the Week 3 board. Other than a knee injury to UW QB Keith Price, who is expected to play, Rood doesn’t really know why sharps have flocked to this matchup.

Colorado Buffaloes at Ohio State Buckeyes – Open: OSU -14, Move: OSU -16.5

The Buckeyes’ QB switch from Joe Bauserman to freshman Braxton Miller is sitting well with wiseguys, who have bet Ohio State heavily since the move was announced this week. The total has also climbed from 44.5 to 46.5 points.

“A more mobile quarterback gives them a better chance to put points on the board,” Rood says. “Bauserman was a statue out there.”

Rood expects the public to pile on Ohio State, but doesn’t want to go beyond -17. The Buckeyes, despite their struggles, are still among the more popular plays with weekend visitors.

LSU at West Virginia: What Bettors Need to Know

THE STORY: It’s another primetime game for No. 3 LSU, which has already knocked off two ranked opponents in Oregon and Mississippi State and is gaining more and more national attention with each impressive victory. The Tigers rank sixth nationally in total defense and third in rushing defense, which is even more eye-opening considering the quality of opponents they have played. In its first season under coach Dana Holgorsen, No. 16 West Virginia is also off to a 3-0 start but has yet to face a ranked opponent. This is the second meeting. Last year, LSU opened up a 17-0 second-quarter lead and held on to win 20-14 in Baton Rouge.

TV: ABC

LINE MOVES: This game opened at -5.5 in favor of LSU and has moved to 6 at some shops. The total opened as high as 50.5 but has since dropped to 48.

ABOUT LSU (3-0, 2-1 ATS): As it turned out, the suspension of quarterback Jordan Jefferson prior to the season opener hasn’t mattered as much as many experts speculated. First, backup Jarrett Lee has proved to be more than capable as an efficient game manager. And second, the defense has been so dominant, the Tigers haven’t needed many points. In last week’s 19-6 win at Mississippi State, LSU held the Bulldogs’ strong ground attack to 52 yards on 34 carries. Sophomores Spencer Ware (226 yards, three touchdowns) and Michael Ford (218, four) lead a powerful LSU rushing game.

ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (3-0, 1-2 ATS): The Mountaineers have won 18 straight non-conference home games since losing to Virginia Tech in 2005, but will have their hands full against the Tigers, who haven’t lost a non-conference regular season game since 2002. West Virginia led by as many as 24 points last week against Maryland but gave up 21 unanswered points in the second half. The Mountaineers held on for a 37-31 victory, but not before allowing 477 total yards. West Virginia is averaging 434.7 yards per game, which ranks 23rd nationally.

TRENDS:

- Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites.
- Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs.
- Over is 4-1 in Tigers' last five non-conference games.
- Over is 11-4-1 in Mountaineers last 16 games as home underdogs.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. LSU has a nation-best 35-game regular-season non-conference winning streak.

2. West Virginia ranks seventh in the nation with 356 passing yards per game.

3. "To say it's not going to be a challenge would be crazy." Holgorsen, on facing LSU.

PREDICTION: LSU 24, West Virginia 20 - The Bayou Bengals should have a little more trouble stopping a Holgorsen-led offense than they did against Mississippi State, but in the end, LSU will get the job done.

SEC Showdowns
By Brian Edwards

The top two teams in my power rankings face daunting challenges in Week 4. I’m talking about Alabama, my No. 1 squad, hosting Arkansas, and LSU, who I have ranked second, going to Morgantown to face West Virginia.

As of late Friday afternoon, most books were listing Alabama (3-0 straight up, 2-1 against the spread) as an 11-point favorite with a total of 50½. Gamblers can take the Razorbacks to win outright for a plus-350 payout (risk $100 to win $350).

Nick Saban’s team trailed 20-7 at Arkansas late in the third quarter of last year’s meeting but thanks to a pair of Ryan Mallett interceptions, it rallied to score 17 unanswered points to get out of Fayetteville with a 24-20 win.

The Crimson Tide has rolled to victory in its first three games against Kent St. (48-7), Penn State (27-11) and North Texas (41-0). They took the cash in their first two games before failing to cover as 47-point home favorites against the Mean Green last Saturday.

Other than the presence of All-American candidate Trent Richardson, a junior running back from out of Pensacola Escambia High School, there are a lot of unknowns with the Alabama offense. Marquis Maze is an excellent wide receiver, but he doesn’t have the size or home-run capability of a Julio Jones.

A.J. McCarron is the starting quarterback as a true sophomore. To date, McCarron has completed 64 percent of his passes for 539 yards with two touchdowns and a pair of interceptions. Both picks came in Week 1 vs. Kent St.

Richardson had 11 carries for 167 rushing yards and three TDs last week. For the season, he has 50 carries for 315 yards and eight TDs with a 6.3 yards-per-carry average. His back-up, sophomore Eddie Lacy, had 161 rushing yards and a pair of scores on just nine carries against No. Texas.

As for Alabama’s defense, there are no issues on this side of the ball. With the possible exception of LSU, the Tide has the nation’s stingiest stop unit. It has given up just 18 points in three games, though this will certainly be its toughest test to date.

Arkansas (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) has a dynamic offense despite the absence of RB Knile Davis, who sustained a season-ending knee injury in August after rushing for more than 1,300 yards and 13 TDs last year. Davis has been replaced by Ronnie Wingo, who rushed for 109 yards and scored three touchdowns last week.

Mallett has been replaced by junior QB Tyler Wilson, who showed us what he was made of in a brilliant performance in relief at Auburn last season. Wilson is completing 68.6 percent of his throws for 822 passing yards with five TDs and two interceptions.

He has one of the country’s best group of WRs, although two of them didn’t play in last week’s 38-28 non-covering victory over Troy as a 23-point home favorite. Jarius Wright and Greg Childs will both be back in the lineup at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Wright, who had 11 catches for 171 yards and three TDs in the Hogs’ first two games, didn’t play against the Trojans due to a sore knee. Childs wasn’t with the team because of the death of his grandmother.

Arkansas will be without one of its best defensive players in DE Jake Bequette, who will miss his second straight game with a hamstring injury. Bequette had a team-high seven sacks in 2010.

Alabama has won all four head-to-head meetings with Arkansas since Saban took over in 2007, but the Hogs are 5-2 ATS in the last seven encounters.

Both teams have seen the ‘under’ go 2-1. Alabama’s games have been played to the following scoring outputs: 55, 38 and 41. As for Arkansas, it has seen these combined numbers: 58, 55 and 66.

VI handicapper Antony Dinero, who has produced more than 18 units of profit in a mere three weeks of action in college football, definitely likes Alabama to win but cautions bettors about laying the points.

“I think it's human nature to want to sell Tyler Wilson short, but it's true, he's not Ryan Mallett,” Dinero said on Friday afternoon. “He doesn't have sure-fire next-level ability and is going up against a freakishly talented secondary, bigger and faster than most. Ball hawk Mark Barron is back for what seems like his 10th season and will help keep a strong Razorback receieving corps at bay.

“Bobby Petrino's team will have to be cautious and can't win games that way. It plays into the hands of Bama, which wants to run almost exclusively and let AJ McCarron come along slowly in what will be his first truly big game. At home in a huge contest for the first time since last season's Auburn collapse, look for Nick Saban and his staff to stress finishing strong, but that run-oriented style does make the Tide susceptible to getting back-doored.”

In the primetime slot on ABC at 8:00 p.m. Eastern, West Virginia (3-0 SU, 1-1-1 ATS) will take on LSU. Most spots have installed the Tigers as six-point favorites with a total of 48. The Mountaineers are plus-185 on the money line (risk $100 to win $185).

LSU (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) is going on the road for a second straight week after beating Mississippi St. by a 19-6 count as a 3 ½-point road favorite last Thursday in Starkville. Spencer Ware rushed for 107 yards and Jarrett Lee threw for 213 and one TD, a 19-yard strike to Rueben Randle that put the Tigers in front 16-6 early in the fourth quarter.

Lee is busy writing quite the redemption story so far this year. He’s in command of team that’s one of the top candidates to win the national title thanks to the suspension of Jordan Jefferson. Remember, Lee threw seven interceptions for touchdowns in 2008. But he didn’t transfer, stuck it out and is now reaping the benefits.

Lee will get another weapon to work with Saturday, as junior WR Russell Shepard returns from a three-game suspension. Shepard had 33 catches last season and rushed for a pair of scores.

WVU is coming off a 37-31 win at Maryland as a one-point road favorite. The Mountaineers raced out to a 34-10 lead early in the third quarter, only to see their advantage cut to three early in the final stanza. Nevertheless, Dana Holgorsen’s team took the cash and held on for the victory thanks to a 388-yard passing day from QB Geno Smith.

In its first two games, WVU beat Marshall (34-13) and Norfolk St. (55-12). The ‘over’ is 2-0 for the ‘Neers, as all bets were “no-plays” (pushes essentially) in Week 1 when their win over Marshall was stopped before 55 minutes of play due to lightning.