College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, Dec. 29

Armed Forces Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Rice Owls vs. Air Force Falcons (-3, 61.5)

BELL HELICOPTER ARMED FORCES BOWL STORYLINES

1. Rice and Air Force enter the contest with mediocre records, but they took differing routes to get there. The Owls won four in a row and five of their last six contests to secure a berth in their first bowl game since 2008. Playing the final 10 weeks without a break, the exhausted Falcons were outscored 124-66 en route to losing three of their last four to limp toward the end of the season.

2. Ironically, Air Force attacks on the ground with its one-dimension offense. Led by diminutive senior Cody Getz (1,219 yards, nine touchdowns), coach Troy Calhoun's triple-option offense averages 328.8 rushing yards - a gaudy number which ranks second-best in the nation. Considering that Rice yields nearly 193 rushing yards per game, the Owls could be in for a long day.

3. Rice's offense features a more balanced game plan as junior quarterback Taylor McHargue has both thrown and rushed for 11 touchdowns this season. Charles Ross is averaging a team-best 5.7 yards per carry and 743 yards total. The Owls amassed 381 points and 5,053 yards of total offense - with both numbers ranking behind only the 2008 club in program history.

LINE: Air Force opened as low as +1 and has since been bet up to -3. The total has moved from as low as 60.5 to 62 points.

WEATHER: The forecast in Forth Worth is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the low 40s. Winds are expected to blow NNW at 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. CUSA.
* Under is 7-3 in Owls' last 10 non-conference games.
* Under is 6-2 in Falcons' last eight games overall.

ABOUT RICE (6-6, 4-4 Conference USA, 7-4-1 ATS): Cody Bauer, among others, will be charged with deciphering the triple-option offense. Bauer leads the Owls in tackles for loss and is tied with fellow defensive end Jared Williams for the team lead with 5.5 sacks. Offensively, Jordan Taylor (48 receptions, 673 yards) and Sam McGuffie (49, 523) have proven consistent for McHargue. In addition, first team All-Conference USA selection Vance McDonald has come on strong since returning from a toe injury. Rice will be playing in its third bowl game since a postseason drought from 1961-2006. The Owls won their last bowl appearance in 2008 by taking the Texas Bowl.

ABOUT AIR FORCE (6-6, 5-3 Mountain West, 3-9 ATS): While the rushing attack secures the headlines, Ty MacArthur is traditionally the one responsible when Air Force takes to the air. The junior wideout has a team-high 411 receiving yards and two scores - although he has matched the touchdown total and surpassed the yardage (419) on the ground. Air Force has won five of the last six meetings between the former WAC members, although the last encounter took place in 1998. The Falcons, who will be playing in their school-record sixth consecutive bowl game, have plenty of experience playing in the Armed Forces Bowl. After dropping its first two appearances, Air Force posted a 47-20 triumph over Houston in the recent meeting in 2009.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Navy Midshipmen vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (-14, 56)

KRAFT FIGHT HUNGER BOWL STORYLINES

1. Navy and Arizona State head to San Francisco for their first meeting on a high note, having knocked off archrivals in their respective regular-season finales. The Midshipmen took care of Army for the 11th straight time while the Sun Devils defeated fellow bowl-bound Arizona in Tucson.

2. As usual, Navy showcases a formidable ground game. It produced 275.6 rushing yards per game, sixth in the country. Arizona State also faced the third-ranked rushing unit in Oregon. Although the style and talent level between the Midshipmen and Ducks are not the same, it is worth noting that the Sun Devils gave up 406 yards on the ground against Oregon.

3. Junior Marion Grice was a potent force in the running and passing game for the Sun Devils, posting remarkably similar numbers in both realms. Grice had 520 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground while gaining 406 yards and eight TDs through the air. His 17 scores leave him one shy of moving into the top five on Arizona State's all-time single-season touchdown list.

LINE: Arizona State opened at -14.5 and has since come down to -14. The total has moved from 56 to 54.5.

WEATHER: The forecast in San Francisco is calling for a 41 percent chance of rain and temperatures in the high 40s. Winds are expected to blow NW at 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Midshipmen are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Bowl games.
* Sun Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl games.
* Over is 5-2 in Midshipmen's last seven Bowl games.
* Under is 11-5 in Sun Devils' last 16 non-conference games.

ABOUT NAVY (8-4, 4-8 ATS): The vaunted rushing attack sputtered early as the Midshipmen began the year 1-3. However, things turned around once freshman Keenan Reynolds took over under center for the injured Trey Miller. Reynolds threw for three touchdowns in his first start Oct. 12 at Central Michigan. He finished the regular season with 628 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns while passing for 884 yards and eight TDs. From the time Reynolds took over late in an overtime affair against Air Force, Navy went 7-1. The Midshipmen made eight straight bowl game appearances before falling short in 2011. They have lost four of their last five bowl games.

ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (7-5, 5-4 Pac-12, 7-5 ATS): It was a bit of a roller coaster ride for the Sun Devils in coach Todd Graham's first season. After opening 5-1, they lost four straight to the best the Pac-12 has to offer, only to rebound with consecutive wins to finish it out, including a wild 41-34 victory over the Wildcats. Arizona State scored 24 straight points in the fourth quarter of that one. It was actually the only game all season in which sophomore Taylor Kelly failed to throw for a touchdown. Kelly ranked third in the Pac-12 in passing efficiency this season, helping the Sun Devils score 36.4 points, also third-best in the league. Defensive tackle Will Sutton was the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year and will be instrumental if Arizona State is going to slow down Navy's option attack.

Pinstripe Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Syracuse Orange (+3.5, 73.5)

NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL STORYLINES

1. West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith has 96 career touchdown passes, 40 this season, but has only three scoring strikes while throwing five interceptions and being sacked nine times in losses to Syracuse in 2010 and 2011.

2. Syracuse has averaged 38.5 points in winning five of its last six games and the Mountaineers are giving up 38.1 overall –114th out of 120 FBS teams. Syracuse scored 49 points against West Virginia in 2011 and leads the series 32-27.

3. West Virginia makes its 11th straight bowl appearance, tied for the nation’s eighth-longest streak, and is 14-17 overall. Syracuse is 13-9-1 in bowls, including a 36-34 victory over Kansas State in the inaugural Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium in 2010.

LINE: West Virginia opened as a 4-point favorite and has been bet down to -3.5. The total has stayed remotely steady at 73.5.

WEATHER: The forecast for Yankee Stadium is calling for an 88 percent chance of snow with temperatures in the low 30s. Winds are expected to NNE at 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Syracuse. The Orange are the home team in this Bronx bowl game.
* Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (7-5, 4-5 Big 12, 5-7 ATS): Smith put up some amazing numbers this season, completing 71.4 percent of his passes and throwing for 4,004 yards with only six interceptions. However, the Mountaineers allowed an average of almost 50 points during a five-game losing streak to derail their season. West Virginia rebounded to win their last two and two of the nation’s top receivers, Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey, will be looking to put on a show against the Orange. Bailey has caught 106 passes for 1,501 yards and 23 touchdowns this season. Austin has 110 receptions for 1,259 yards and 12 touchdowns, while rushing for 598. Andrew Buie leads the ground attack with 817 yards. West Virginia gave up only 34 points combined in the last two games.

ABOUT SYRACUSE (7-5, 5-2 Big East, 6-5-1 ATS): The Orange turned it on down the stretch, including a big comeback at South Florida and wins over Louisville and Missouri. Syracuse, which finished tied for first in the Big East this season after tying for last in 2011, averaged only 13 points in three games before beating Connecticut 40-10 to start its run. Quarterback Ryan Nassib has 13 touchdown passes and one interception over the last six games after 11 and eight, respectively, the first six. Nassib’s top target is Alec Lemon, who caught 70 passes for 1,063 yards. Marcus Sales has also caught 63 passes for 863 yards. Jerome Smith has 1,019 yards rushing overall and an average of 110.7 the last six. Syracuse has allowed an average of 28.8 points the last five games.

Alamo Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Texas Longhorns vs. Oregon State Beavers (-3, 57.5)

VALERO ALAMO BOWL STORYLINES

1. After stumbling to the finish line of the regular season, No. 25 Texas and No. 14 Oregon State will head to San Antonio, Texas, for their third meeting. The Beavers dropped three of their last five in Pac-12 play but still finished six games better than their 3-9 mark last season. The Longhorns lost their last two games but still held on for third in the the Big-12. They missed out on a BCS bowl berth for the third consecutive season, however.

2. Another common thread connecting these teams is the uncertainty surrounding their starting quarterbacks. David Ash started the first 11 games for Texas before he was benched in the second-to-last game against TCU. Sean Mannion started the first four games for the Beavers, missed two with a knee injury and then was benched after a four-interception performance against Washington, resulting in Oregon State's first conference loss. After his replacement, Cody Vaz, injured his ankle Nov. 10 against Stanford, Mannion started the final three games.

3. Oregon State has one of the nation’s top pass rushers in Scott Crichton, who had nine sacks during the season, earning all-conference first-team honors. Texas will be without its best offensive lineman in left guard Trey Hopkins, who suffered a stress fracture in his lower right leg in the regular-season finale against Kansas State. Behind Crichton is a defense that snared 19 interceptions, sixth-most in the nation. Jordan Poyer led the way with seven picks.

4. Texas head Mack Brown suspended two unidentified players from the team Friday following a probe into sexual assault allegations. He did not specify if they players were starters or not. No charges have been filed.

LINE: Oregon State opened as a 1.5-point favorite and has been bet up to -3. The total has moved from 56 to 57.5 points.

TRENDS:

* Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Beavers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in December.
* Over is 4-1 in Longhorns' last five vs. Pac-12.
* Over is 6-2 in Beavers' last eight non-conference games.

ABOUT TEXAS (8-4, 5-4 Big-12, 5-7 ATS): Two key players for the Longhorns will be their only All-Big 12 First-Team selections - senior safety Kenny Vaccaro and senior defensive lineman Alex Okafor. Vaccaro was second on the team in tackles and will lead a secondary that will responsible for corralling a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in Markus Wheaton and Brandin Cooks. Okafor had eight sacks and 12 tackles for loss. Since losing linebacker Jordan Hicks to a season-ending hip injury in the third game, sophomore Steve Edmond had stepped up and led the team with 101 tackles.

ABOUT OREGON STATE (9-3, 6-3 Pac-12, 8-4 ATS): Wheaton and Cooks might be the best wide-receiver duo in the nation and the main reason the Beavers own the 15th-ranked passing offense. Wheaton, a senior, has caught 88 passes for 1,207 yards and 11 touchdowns. Cooks, a sophomore, has grabbed 64 balls for 1,120 yards and five scores. He's averaging 17.5 yards per catch. Wheaton became the school’s career leader in receptions (224) this season. He has at least one catch in 35 straight games, which leads the Pac-12.

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Michigan State Spartans (+2.5, 40.5)

BUFFALO WILD WINGS BOWL STORYLINES

1. A pair of sturdy defenses and Michigan State junior running back Le'Veon Bell will take center stage when a battle of teams which finished below .500 in conference play meet in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl at Tempe, Ariz. The teams should feel more comfortable on the road as neither won a conference game at home.

2. Texas Christian and Michigan State had high hopes for 2012 after racking up 11 wins apiece last season, but things didn't quite materialize. Michigan State dropped five conference games by a combined 11 points while TCU lost starting quarterback Casey Pachall after the fourth game of the season when he left school and checked into a rehab program for substance abuse after being arrested for DWI.

3. Bell ran for 587 yards in his final three games, including a monstrous 266 yards and a touchdown against Minnesota to cap the regular season. The Spartans' formula is simple - control the ball with Bell and rely on their powerful defense which ranked fourth in the nation at 274 yards per game. TCU is no slouch on that side of the ball either as the Horned
LINE: TCU opened as a 1-point favorite and was bet up to -2.5. The total opened at 41.5 and has come down to 40.5.

WEATHER: The forecast in Tempe is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the high 40s. Winds are expected to blow ESE at 2 mph.

TRENDS:

* Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS in their last four Bowl games.
* Spartans are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Big 12.
* Under is 6-0-1 in Horned Frogs' last seven bowl games.
* Under is 3-0-1 in Spartans' last four non-conference games.

ABOUT TCU (7-5, 4-5 Big 12, 5-7 ATS): The Horned Frogs wound up 10th in the conference in total offense and lost three of their next four games after Pachall left the team. That put the burden of running the offense on the shoulders of freshman quarterback Trevone Boykin. Pachall was 15-2 in his career and threw 25 touchdown passes last season, giving TCU plenty of hope for 2012. When he was gone, the Horned Frogs had to throw Boykin into the fire and he threw three interceptions in his first start. Boykin rebounded with a fabulous four-touchdown game against Baylor, but then battled with his consistency the rest of the season. The Horned Frogs had a signature 20-13 victory at Texas late in the season in a game when Boykin threw only nine passes.

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (6-6, 3-5 Big Ten, 4-8 ATS): The Spartans defeated Georgia 33-30 in the Outback Bowl last season, but exceeded that point total only once in 2012. Michigan State ranked ninth in total offense in the Big Ten. Bell, however, seemed to get stronger as the year went along and finished with 1,638 yards on the ground, good for sixth in the nation. Andrew Maxwell completed only 53 percent of his passes this year as the receiving unit was labeled as one of the most unreliable corps in the nation. With top wideout Keshawn Martin now playing for the Houston Texans, the Spartans dropped passes at an alarming rate. Michigan State flashed its enormous potential with wins over Boise State and at Wisconsin, which is headed to the Rose Bowl, but it needed a win in its season-finale to even become bowl eligible. Tight end Dion Sims, who went over 100 yards receiving twice this season, will play after recovering from an ankle injury.

Saturday's Bowl Action
By Sportsbook.ag

AIR FORCE FALCONS (6-6) at RICE OWLS (6-6)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Air Force -3 & 61.5
Opening Line & Total: Falcons -1.5 & 61

Two excellent rushing offenses duel in Fort Worth, TX on Saturday when Air Force and Rice meet in the Armed Forces Bowl.

Air Force ranks second in the nation with 329 rushing YPG, while Rice has 220 rushing YPG, good for 16th in FBS. The Falcons have been slumping though, losing three of four SU and seven of eight ATS, while the Owls have won four straight SU and five of six ATS. Air Force, which is led by RB Cody Getz (110 rush YPG, 20th in nation), has allowed just six sacks all year, tied for the fewest in the nation. Rice's dual-threat QB Taylor McHargue has 2,178 passing yards and 628 rushing yards, scoring 11 touchdowns in each method of attack. This should be a close game throughout, but Rice is playing much better down the stretch, against what appears to be similar competition. The Falcons were stomped in their last game, 48-15, by the same Fresno State team that just got humiliated by an SMU team that lost 36-14 at Rice two games ago. Also, Air Force does not historically bounce back from large defeats, going 7-25 ATS (22%) off a double-digit conference loss since 1992.

Air Force might literally run the football every down, just like it did on Nov. 16, when it topped Hawaii 21-7. The Falcons average 63 rushing attempts per game, gaining 5.2 yards per carry. They throw the football only 12 times per game, but are pretty efficient in doing so with 9.3 YPA. QB Connor Dietz has thrown for 1,127 yards, 8 TD and 3 INT this season. The top rusher for Air Force is senior RB Cody Getz, who has 1,213 rushing yards and 9 TD this year despite playing in just 10 games. He already has three 200-yard rushing outputs this season.

Rice is the second-youngest team in FBS, which is a big reason it started the season slow (1-5 SU) and finished strong (5-1 SU), capped off by a bowl-clinching 33-24 win at UTEP. The Owls are perfectly capable of both running (201 YPG) and throwing (220 YPG) on offense, and QB Taylor McHargue has been outstanding during the team's four-game win streak, completing 64-of-98 passes for 843 yards, 3 TD and 1 INT. Rice has scored 40.5 PPG on 432 total YPG in these four games and has 31.7 PPG and 421 total YPG for the season. Senior RB Charles Ross is coming off a career-best performance against UTEP, rushing for 154 yards and 2 TD. The Owls defense is not great by any stretch, giving up 444 total YPG, 251 YPG through the air and 193 YPG on the ground, ranking 94th in FBS in rushing defense.

WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (7-5) at SYRACUSE ORANGE (7-5)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: West Virginia -3.5 (-115) & 73.5
Opening Line & Total: Mountaineers -4 & 73.5

Former Big East rivals meet for the 58th consecutive year when West Virginia and Syracuse tussle at Yankee Stadium on Saturday.

These teams have played every year since 1955, with Syracuse holding a 31-26 series advantage during this span, including a 49-23 crushing last year. Orange QB Ryan Nassib scored 5 TD (4 pass, 1 rush) in that win, while West Virginia star QB Geno Smith was held to 304 total yards, 2 TD and 2 INT. Both seniors have put up big numbers in 2012, with Nassib throwing for 302 YPG, 24 TD and 9 INT, while Smith is seventh in the nation in passing efficiency with 4,004 passing yards (334 YPG), 40 TD and just 6 INT. But WVU has the second-worst pass defense in the nation (327 YPG). Although West Virginia travels very well, there will more than likely be a much larger throng of Orange fans, as Syracuse bills itself as New York's college team. But more important that fan base is the fact that the Orange defense is far superior than WVU's unit that has surrendered 50+ points five times this season. And although Syracuse is prone to committing penalties, Dana Holgorsen is 0-6 ATS versus teams with 60+ penalty yards per game since he took over as the West Virginia head coach.

West Virginia will be playing in its 11th straight bowl, destroying Clemson in last year's Orange Bowl, 70-33, behind 407 passing yards and 6 TD from Geno Smith. He's also coming off a monster game against Kansas in the regular-season finale, when he completed 23-of-24 passes for 407 yards and 3 TD in a 59-10 blowout. Although Smith has set all kinds of school records in his career (11,461 pass yds, 96 TD), he has been terrible versus Syracuse, throwing 3 TD and 5 INT while taking nine sacks during two straight defeats in this series. Smith's favorite target is 5-foot-10 WR Stedman Bailey, who leads the nation with 23 TD grabs and gains 125 receiving yards per game. The Mountaineers are also a strong rushing team, averaging 178 rushing YPG on 4.9 YPC. Defensively, WVU continues to struggle mightily, allowing 38.1 PPG (9th-most in FBS) and 470 total YPG.

Syracuse has played outstanding football in the second half of the season, going 5-1 (SU and ATS) including wins over Louisville at home and road victories at South Florida, Missouri and Temple. Nassib's school-record 3,619 passing yards rank 10th in the nation, while his 8.1 YPA is also impressive. Nassib threw for 239 yards and 3 TD in his first Pinstripe Bowl appearance two years ago, a 36-34 victory over Kansas State. Although short-yardage back Adonis Ameen-Moore (5 TD in six game), was suspended for violating team rules, the Orange are still a decent rushing offense, piling up 173 rushing YPG on 4.2 YPC this year. On the defensive side of the ball, LB Marquis Spruill will not play the full four quarters as punishment for getting into an altercation with police on Dec. 2. For the season, Syracuse allows 25.7 PPG and 385 total YPG, limiting opponents to just 148 YPG on the ground (4.1 YPC).

NAVY MIDSHIPMEN (8-4) vs. ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS (7-5)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Arizona State -14 & 56
Opening Line & Total: Sun Devils -14.5 & 56

A pair of surging teams will clash on Saturday afternoon when Navy and Arizona take part in the Fight Hunger Bowl in San Francisco.

The Midshipmen are 7-1 SU (3-5 ATS) since October, while Arizona State has dropped four of six (SU and ATS), but with wins in each of its past two contests. Navy ranks sixth in the nation in rushing yards (285 YPG) thanks to the triple-option, while Arizona State's fast-paced offense directed by sophomore QB Taylor Kelly (267 total YPG, 25 TD, 9 INT) scores 36.4 points per game (3rd in Pac-12). Neither team is very successful in the postseason, as Navy is just 1-4 in bowl games since 2006 and Arizona State has lost six of its past eight bowls, including three in a row by a scoring margin of 22.3 PPG. These teams appear much closer than the spread would indicate, especially in the second half of the season where Navy has been playing much better. The Midshipmen also have two big anti-ASU trends in their favor: The Sun Devils are 2-10 ATS after playing a game where 60+ total points were scored in the past two seasons, and favorites of 10.5 to 21 points off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, are just 11-34 ATS (24%) since 1992.

Navy has been winning most of its games comfortably, but it had to come from behind to top rival Army 17-13 in its last game on Dec. 8. Navy has attempted just 160 passes this season (13.3 per game), but QB Keenan Reynolds was still able to throw for 884 yards, 8 TD and 1 INT. Reynolds would prefer to use his legs though, rushing for 588 yards in the past seven games and scoring his team-high 10th rushing TD of the season as the game-winner against Army. The Midshipmen ground game is also steered by RB Gee Gee Greene (team-high 765 rush yds) and FB Noah Copeland, who has 209 yards and 3 TD in his past two contests. Navy has to be concerned with ASU's potent passing offense, as it surrendered 705 passing yards combined to Troy and Texas State before facing run-heavy Army. For the season, Navy allows 23.5 PPG and 386 total YPG (226 passing, 161 rushing).

Arizona State also had a thrilling victory in its regular season finale on Nov. 23, erasing a 10-point, fourth-quarter deficit to beat rival Arizona 41-34. Taylor Kelly is a heady quarterback, throwing for 8.2 YPA (2nd in Pac-12), while completing 66% of his passes (3rd in conference). He also knows how to run with the football as one of four teammates that gained more than 400 yards on the ground. RB Marion Grice was the star in the win over Arizona, galloping for a career-high 156 yards and 3 TD, giving him 17 total TD this season. Kelly does a nice job spreading the wealth in the passing game as six different Sun Devils players have 300+ receiving yards. TE Chris Coyle is the main man with 53 grabs for 659 yards. The Midshipmen triple-option attack could be especially troublesome to an Arizona State defense giving up at least 200 rushing yards to four of its past six opponents. For the season, the Sun Devils allow a nearly equal number of yards in the air (179 YPG, 5.6 YPA) and on the ground (172 YPG, 4.1 YPC).

OREGON STATE BEAVERS (9-3) vs. TEXAS LONGHORNS (8-4)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Oregon State -3 & 57.5
Opening Line & Total: Beavers -2 & 56

Texas looks to stop a two-game slide when it stays close to home for Saturday's Alamo Bowl versus Oregon State.

Neither team is playing particularly well as Oregon State has alternated wins and losses in each of the past seven games, while Texas finished the year getting outscored 62 to 37 during a two-game losing skid. Both teams have injury concerns to key offensive starters, but it appears that most (if not all) will play. Mack Brown has chosen to start David Ash (8.6 YPA, 17 TD, 7 INT) coming off a ribs injury at quarterback, instead of going with Case McCoy (9.5 YPA, 6 TD, 3 INT). Beavers QB Sean Mannion has thrown for 220+ yards in every full game, but he also tossed 4 INT in his last game versus an FBS team (Oregon). That poor showing was partly why Mike Riley (5-1 SU bowl record) announced that Cody Vaz will start under center on Saturday. Although this will be a very pro-Texas crowd in San Antonio, a mere 90-minute drive from the Austin campus, Oregon State is simply the better team here. The Beavers have already beaten Wisconsin, UCLA, BYU and Arizona State this year, while losing by just four points at Stanford. The Longhorns' best wins are Oklahoma State (a game they should have lost with a blown fumble call at the goal line), Baylor and Texas Tech. Texas is just 5-15 ATS (25%) versus teams that score 31+ PPG in the past three seasons, and Oregon State is 9-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 in this same timeframe.

Texas has usually played well in bowl games under Mack Brown, going 9-4 since he arrived in Austin. And the offense has also clicked this season with 36.1 PPG on 441 total YPG. The sophomore Ash has been very accurate this season, completing 68% of his passes, and he'll need to be very careful with his throws against a talented Beavers secondary. Texas has turned the ball over just 15 times this season, but seven have come during the two straight losses, including five interceptions. With former offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin leaving Texas to coach Arkansas State, Major Applewhite will be calling the plays on Saturday. He'll have no qualms trying to run the football as his team averages 179 rushing YPG on 4.7 YPC this season. The Texas defense has been repeatedly burned this year, but has made great strides in the past five games with 21.6 PPG and 328 total YPG allowed, which is a huge improvement from the 35.0 PPG and 472 total YPG it surrendered in the season's first seven contests.

Oregon State tied the largest win improvement in the country this year, going from three wins last year to nine victories in 2012. This tripled win total has been even more impressive considering the flux the Beavers have had at the quarterback position with Sean Mannion (knee) and Cody Vaz (ankle) both suffering significant injuries. Both players were nearly perfect in the team's season finale versus Nicholls State, a 77-3 pounding. Mannion connected on 20-of-23 throws for 231 yards (10.0 YPA) and 2 TD, while Vaz was 14-of-17 for 190 yards (11.2 YPA) and 3 TD. Despite the interchanging parts, OSU still posted 33.0 PPG and 316 passing YPG (8.0 YPA) for the season. Much of that had to do with WR Markus Wheaton, whose 101 receiving YPG placed him 11th in the nation. Defensively, the Beavers are very skilled, and love making plays on the ball. They forced 30 turnovers this season (T-12th in FBS), including 19 interceptions (T-6th in nation).

TCU HORNED FROGS (7-5) vs. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (6-6)

SSportsbook.ag Line & Total: TCU -3 & 40
Opening Line & Total: Horned Frogs -2.5 & 41.5

In what figures to be a defensive struggle with the Over/Under set at 40, TCU and Michigan State square off in Saturday's Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl in Tempe, AZ.

These are similar teams in terms of defense and success away from home. TCU allows just 332 total YPG (18th in nation), while Michigan State gives up only 273 total YPG (4th in FBS). The Horned Frogs were 5-1 SU (3-3 ATS) in non-home games, while the Spartans went 4-1 (SU and ATS) outside of East Lansing, holding these teams to just 13.8 PPG. Offensively, MSU revolves around RB Le'Veon Bell (137 rush YPG, 3rd in nation), while TCU is trying to get its offense in gear after scoring just 15.7 PPG on 308 total YPG in the past three contests. Other than a 20-3 loss to Notre Dame, the Spartans have been in every contest, losing by 1 point to undefeated Ohio State, by 2 at Michigan, by 3 to Northwestern and Iowa and by 4 points to Nebraska. TCU's five losses have come by an average of 11.8 PPG, with only one defeat occurring by less than seven points. And despite the Horned Frogs recent bowl success, they are 0-4 ATS in the past four postseason games.

TCU has had a roller coaster season both on and off the field, most notably starting QB Casey Pachall quitting the team after four games to check into an inpatient program after an alleged DWI in early October. Freshman Trevone Boykin replaced him and managed a mediocre 15 TD and 9 INT, to go along with a solid 380 rushing yards. The Horned Frogs average 29.3 PPG and 397 total YPG (8th in Big 12), but those numbers are pretty poor compared to most pass-happy, soft defensive teams that are part of TCU's new conference. The team ranked last in the conference with 3.9 rushing yards per carry. On the flip side, the Frogs defense was very impressive considering the Big 12 style of play. They allowed 228 passing YPG, but just 6.7 YPA, and held opponents to 104 rushing YPG on 3.3 YPC. Freshman DE Devonte Fields was even better than advertised, chalking up nine sacks and 17.5 Tackles For Loss.

Michigan State's offense has struggled all year, posting just 20.2 PPG and 5.0 yards per play. The Spartans have shown good balance though with 219 passing YPG and 152 rushing YPG. But junior QB Andrew Maxwell hasn't been nearly as effective as last year's signal caller, current Redskins QB Kirk Cousins. Maxwell completed just 52.9% of his passes (last in Big Ten) and wound up with only 13 TD and 9 INT. But he hasn't needed to be great with RB Le'Veon Bell as his teammate. Bell is coming off a career-high 266 rushing yards in the season finale at Minnesota, where he scored his 11th TD of the 2012 campaign. Michigan State's rushing defense is rather impressive, allowing a mere 100 rushing YPG on just 3.3 YPC. Opponents scored a paltry five rushing touchdowns all season, which tied for the second-fewest in the nation behind top-ranked Notre Dame (2 rushing TD allowed). The Spartans defense is led by three all-conference selections in LB Max Bullough and DBs Johnny Adams and Darqueze Dennard.

Armed Forces Bowl Preview
By Ian Cameron
Sportsmemo.com

Air Force vs. Rice
CRIS Opener: Rice pk O/U 60.5
CRIS Current: Air Force -3 O/U 61
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Air Force -0.5

Rice (6-6, 4-4 C-USA) won five of its last six games, including four in a row, to become bowl eligible for the first time since playing in the 2008 Texas Bowl. It will be the 10th bowl appearance in the school's history. "There's an enthusiasm and pride right now with everybody associated with Rice," coach David Bailiff said. "I've never been more proud of a bunch of young men that stuck together and made this possible. They refused to lose." Rice certainly enters this game with the requisite amount of motivation and enthusiasm to expect a good effort, especially since they’ve been shut out from playing in the postseason the last three years. Air Force went 6-6 as well during the regular season and 5-3 in Mountain West play and makes its sixth consecutive bowl appearance under head coach Troy Calhoun. Air Force went 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS in those five bowl appearances on Calhoun’s watch. They lost 42-41 to Toledo last year, defeated Georgia Tech 14-7 in 2010, defeated Houston 47-20 in 2009, lost to Houston 34-28 in 2008, and lost to California 42-36 in 2007. Service academy programs typically come to play in the postseason so I’d expect equal motivation on both sides.

Rice’s fundamental and possibly fatal flaw in this matchup is its porous run defense which will be asked to slow down Air Force’s triple option attack. The Owls gave up 6.08 ypc on the ground which indicated Air Force may be able to line up and run the ball at will. On the flip side, Rice’s offense, led by quarterback Taylor McHargue, finished the season by scoring 44, 49, 36 and 33 points. They also put together some fairly good offensive showings against quality competition including 24 points against UCLA. Air Force had its own issues stopping the opposition (5.11 ypc and 5.82 ypp allowed) so there is reason to believe Rice should be able to move the football and score as well.

Rice played three bowl teams in the regular season: UCLA, Tulsa and SMU. They lost 49-24 against UCLA, lost 28-24 to Tulsa, and defeated SMU 36-14 for a 2-1 ATS mark. Air Force played five teams during the season that are bowling. The Falcons lost at Michigan 31-25, lost to Navy 28-21, defeated Nevada 48-31, lost at San Diego State 28-9, and lost at Fresno State 48-15 for a 2-3 ATS mark. Rice’s chances could be boosted in theory because Conference-USA has started out the bowl season rather well (2-1 SU/ATS) with UCF and SMU romping to easy blowout bowl victories and East Carolina, despite losing 43-34, put up a very good fight against UL-Lafayette. Mountain West teams have not fared well this postseason going 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS. Nevada blew a big lead to Arizona and lost but did manage the ATS win as 10-point underdogs. San Diego State and Fresno State were not good at all in their bowl games as both offenses couldn’t get out of their own way in what ended up being SU and ATS losses by margin against BYU and SMU respectively. However, as mentioned, from a fundamental standpoint, this is not a great matchup for Rice. The Owls have the run/pass balance on offense to cause some problems for the Falcons but their own defense, which was at its worst when asked to stop the run, could get run right off the field by Air Force’s triple option rushing attack which averaged 329.2 rushing yards per game.

Pinstripe Bowl Preview
By Andrew Lange
Sportsmemo.com

West Virginia vs. Syracuse
CRIS Opener: West Virginia -3.5 O/U 73.5
CRIS Current: West Virginia -3.5 O/U 71.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: West Virginia -4.5

Who is going to force more than two punts is the general feeling most bettors have heading into Saturday’s Pinstripe Bowl. I don't see either team with a significant motivational edge. Syracuse is obviously pleased to being playing in the postseason and within proximity to the venue. West Virginia may not be as giddy but I do give the Mountaineers credit for not completely packing it in the final few weeks of the regular season. They also have a little bit of revenge on their minds as these two teams met last season and Syracuse cruised to a 49-23 win as 14-point home underdogs. And in 2010, Syracuse again came up aces against the Mountaineers, 19-14, as 13.5-point underdogs. Note that while passing the football is likely to be the theme of Saturday's game, Syracuse won both contests in large part because they dominated the run game (381-179).

No question West Virginia's season was a disappointment because of its inability to stop the pass but as bad as things were, Syracuse wasn't far behind when you consider who they played. Of the Orange's 11 FBS opponents, only two ranked in the top 40 in terms of passing yards per game. Half of Syracuse's schedule ranked 79th or worse including three ranked 108th, 112th and 120th. Against USC (26th) and Louisville (24th), Syracuse allowed 73.8% completions, 611 yards, and 9 touchdowns. West Virginia meanwhile faced a litany of potent passing attacks – a lot of which also had strong run games. Point being, if Syracuse had played West Virginia's schedule, the pass and overall defensive numbers would have likely been similar.

One suspension of note is West Virginia's starting center Joey Madsen who failed to make grades. He had started 50 of WVU's past 51 games and had obvious rapport with quarterback Geno Smith. The Mountaineers plan on going with right guard Jeff Braun who has experience playing the position.

Also interesting is the progression of the total in this series. Two years ago, without Dana Holgorsen, the total closed 43.5 while last year's meeting was 60.5. Here we've seen the total actually bet down slightly but the move is based solely on weather. This is what weather.com had to say as of Friday afternoon: Snow likely. Temps nearly steady in the low to mid 30s. Winds NE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 80%. 2 to 4 inches of snow expected. Not exactly conducive for prolific passing numbers but also not conducive for tackling. Add snow into the equation and there's a good chance for multiple miscues that lead to defensive or special teams' scores.

Fight Hunger Bowl Preview
By Rob Veno
Sportsmemo.com

Navy vs. Arizona State
CRIS Opener: Arizona State -15.5 O/U 56
CRIS Current: Arizona State -13.5 O/U 55.5
Rob Veno’s Power Rating: Arizona State -14.5

There are a multitude of contrasts and advantages to be considered in this game but motivation is not one of them. Each squad has openly expressed their excitement to be in the postseason so we figure to get maximum effort. Preparation time is essential when facing Navy’s triple option attack and even with the extra time, ASU is not finding things easy. First year head coach Todd Graham cites the Navy blocking scheme as difficult to defend and obviously simulating it in practice is nothing like what the Sun Devils will see Saturday afternoon. There are problems for Navy too in prepping for Arizona State’s high powered and well balanced spread (190.8 rypg, 258.4 pypg). The most significant of the hurdles was the lack of practice time used by the Midshipmen. Due to finals, Navy practiced just once a day for six days and did not use their allotted 15 full two hour practices to get ready for this game. Head coach Ken Niumataolo said his team is not complaining but he isn’t sure that they are as prepared as they could be for this contest.

When examining the schedule strength of these teams, you find a huge disparity. My power ratings show Navy’s average opponent strength as 28.8 while Arizona State’s was 42.6 creating a 13.8 gap which is the largest of any bowl game this postseason. It has been three months since Navy faced even an average defense. In three of their first four games this year, the Midshipmen totaled just 17 points against the tough defenses of Notre Dame, Penn State and San Jose State. They did rack up 56 and 28 versus bowl participants East Carolina and Air Force. Here they’ll face an Arizona State defense which gained some notoriety this year as a strong pass rushing and disruptive style of unit. However, ASU built some gaudy numbers in their first six games when they faced three backup quarterbacks; Cal’s Zach Maynard, Colorado’s Jordan Lynch and FCS Northern Arizona. Not exactly a dynamic group. Over the second half of the season, Arizona State’s defense was exposed as the five PAC-12 bowl teams they faced scored an average of 39.2 ppg, and gained 466 ypg (258 rypg, 208 pypg). They were 1-4 SU and ATS in those contests. Navy’s style negates ASU’s aggressive tendencies and how long it takes them to adapt to the speed and precision of Navy’s unique ground attack will go a long way in deciding how the Sun Devils fare. Offensively they should not have that much of a problem because their offensive line figures to dominate Navy in the trenches. The Midshipmen are well conditioned but the relentless high tempo pace of ASU is likely to cause problems if they have enough possession time. Although Niumataolo praises the strength and speed improvement of his roster, they are exceptionally young (29 freshmen or sophomores) which leaves them thin on experienced depth and overall size.

The layoff difference between games for these teams might mean something but it’s hard to gauge. Navy could compensate for their lack of preparation time (especially defensively) with the fact that it will only be 20 days since they played Army. The small window could have their offense still executing fine. Arizona State had the allotment of practice time but will the 35 days off create rust for its offense? The weather forecast call for 50 degrees and rain tapering off by game time so the elements shouldn’t affect anything. Game plans are obvious here: Navy wants to possess the ball for long periods of time and keep ASU’s high octane group off the field while the Sun Devils want to create three-and-outs and allow their offensive pace to wear Navy out. Expect both of those plans to work for portions of but not this entire contest. Navy has a real good opportunity to catch Arizona State off guard early and build a lead which is essential if they’re going to cover the number. For those who like to bet halves, might be worth a shot to take Navy +8 and over 28.

Alamo Bowl Preview
By Alatex Sports
Sportsmemo.com

Oregon State vs. Texas
CRIS Opener: Oregon State -1 O/U 56.5
CRIS Current: Oregon State -3.5 O/U 57.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Oregon State -2

Texas has the advantage of playing in San Antonio, but while that should result in a fair amount of fan support, I doubt it will be much of a factor. Let’s face it, the Alamo Bowl is not where the Longhorns or their faithful wanted to finish the season, so playing a couple hundred miles from home isn’t going to give them a huge emotional lift. For me to get involved with Texas, I would need assurances that they were completely into the game – it would also help to know that Oregon State would come in flat. I have seen nothing from either side to indicate that being the case, and as a result, Oregon State is a deserving small favorite. For Texas, a win over Oregon State in the Alamo Bowl is probably not as important to the program as it is for Oregon State. Even though the Longhorns are just 21-16 over the past three years, they still a blueblood college football program, and the Beavers would love that notch in their belt.

Texas stacks up pretty well on offense numbers-wise, but with offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin leaving for the Arkansas State head coaching job, the Horns will break in new play caller, Major Applewhite. That could have an adverse effect on the Texas offense, and Applewhite has hinted at being more conservative with his play choices.

Defensively is where I see significant differences between these two teams. Oregon State was much more effective on that side of the ball, allowing 4.84 yards per rush and 5.51 yards per pass, while Texas gave up 5.56 ypr and 7.01 ypp. Oregon State was much more consistent in stopping the run, as a 436 yard day by Oregon skewed their seasonal numbers to a degree. The Beavers did not allow another team to gain 200 yards on the ground, while Texas allowed seven different opponents to top the 200-yard mark.

Both of these teams had opportunities to beat top 15 teams, but neither was able to get the job done. Oregon State lost at Stanford by 4, and at home to Oregon by 24, while Texas was blown out by Oklahoma by 42 and Kansas State by 18. I would have much preferred to take a field goal with Oregon State than lay one, and recent money on the Beavers has the line now -3.5 across the board. At that price, I’ll likely be sitting this one out.

..

Armed Forces Bowl

Have to wonder if a bowl is lame when it starts at 10:45am local time; any oddity like that favors an academy team, since they’re trained not to let distractions bother them. Rice had to win last four games just to get to 6-6 and be eligible for this; not only didn’t Owls have any solid wins, they beat Kansas 25-24, Tulane 49-47, two awful teams. Rice is 5-2-1 vs spread as an underdog. Fourth time in six years in this bowl for Flyboys, who lost two of prior three visits; they’re 2-3 in bowls under Calhoun, with losses by combined total of nine points. Falcons are 1-6 vs spread as a favorite this year. Never liked one-dimensional teams in bowls; other side has too much time to prepare for it. Rice is in a bowl for first time in four years (beat Western Michigan 38-14 in ’08 Texas Bowl), so both sides figure to be enthused, but Owls allowed 5.1 yards/rush, could have trouble stopping the option, even with the extra prep time. Air Force lost to UNLV/Army, so they’re not very good, though they also lost 31-25 at Michigan. Rice scored 33+ points in five of its six wins. Air Force is 1-5 away from home, with only win 28-27 (-3) at Wyoming. Dogs won this bowl SU last three years, with four of last five decided by six or less points.

Fight Hunger Bowl

Arizona State started season 5-1, then lost next four games, allowing 40.5 ppg, before winning last two games 46-7/41-34; they’re 5-1 vs spread as favorites under first-year Coach Graham (favorites are 9-2 vs spread in ASU games this year). Again, do not like one-dimensional offenses in bowls- too much time to prepare to stop/contain them, but Middies have covered 13 of last 17 when getting points. Navy coach Niumatalolo is 1-3 in bowls (2-2 vs spread). Well-traveled Graham won three of four bowls for three different schools. Navy’s big games are Army/Air Force plus they played Notre Dame in Ireland, so this might not be as big a deal to them as it is to Sun Devils. Middies were 3-3 as dogs this year, covering last three tries. Underdogs are 5-3 vs spread in this bowl last eight years; losing side scored 13 or 14 points four of last five Hunger Bowls; damp Bay Area weather and odd configuration of field in a baseball stadium doesn’t lend itself to high scoring action. ASU lost last three bowls, allowing 41-52-56 points. Navy lost four of last five bowls (3-2 vs spread). Pac-12 teams are 2-3 in this bowl. .

Pinstripe Bowl

Holgorson hung 70 on Clemson in first bowl as HC (won 70-33); West Virginia’s offense is so potent, they won games this year while allowing 63-45-34 points; they also lost games scoring 38-34-49 points (all in consecutive weeks), so potential winter weather doesn’t figure to help them. Syracuse lost 42-29 to USC in Swamp Stadium across river back in September; you’d think they’d have a home crowd edge here, but Syracuse alums back basketball team more than football, especially for an outdoor game (Orangemen play in a dome). Syracuse beat K-State in this bowl two years ago, its only bowl game since 2004; they won last three games to get here, scoring 45-31-38 points. Bowl game in Bronx on December 29 figures to be cold/wintry. Big East teams are 6-0 in this bowl (four of six wins vs lowly MAC), but West Virginia was a Big East team until this year, and Syracuse won’t be one after this year. Favorites are 3-1 here (game was pick ‘em last two years), with surprisingly high average total of 55.2 in bowl history.

Alamo Bowl

Texas is an underdog in the Alamo? Underachieving Longhorns are 4-4 in last eight games, losing last two to TCU/K-State; three of their eight wins were by six or less points, as jackals circle over Mack Brown, whose OC is new HC at Arkansas State. Texas is 1-2 as an underdog this year. Oregon State historically starts slow, but this year they were 3-0 in September, upsetting Wisconsin/UCLA/Arizona, so 9-3 finish was little disappointing, especially 20-17 loss at Washington; Beavers will start Vas at QB, as neither signal caller distinguished himself during 3-3 end to regular season. Beavers are 3-2 as a favorite this year. Big X teams won six of last seven Alamo Bowls; favorites covered four of last five, with only two of last nine Alamo Bowls decided by less than seven points. Both sides won four of last five bowls; Texas beat Iowa 26-24 in this game back in '06. Domed stadium takes elements out of play, encourages high scoring tilt; totals last seven years: 60-50-41-53-70-46-113 (average of 76.3 last three years). From everything I read, Mack Brown is not highly thought of as a tactician (recruited RGIII to play DB) while Riley has been HC in CFL/NFL. Coaching edge has to go to Oregon State.

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Michigan State limps in with 6-6 record, despite being favored in nine of 12 games; seven of their last eight games were decided by 4 or less points, with underdogs covering six of last seven. A 20-3 loss to Notre Dame is Spartans’ only loss by more than four points (2-0 as underdog). This is old Insight Bowl, where Big X team beat Big Dozen team five of last six years, but TCU is in first year in Big X; underdogs are 5-4 vs spread in this game the last nine years. TCU lost its QB early on in its first year in new, tougher league; they started out 4-0, then losing five of last eight games, scoring 10-20-17 points in last three. Horned Frogs are 1-3 as a favorite in ’12; this is first time they’re favored in game since October 6 vs Iowa State, game they lost 37-23 at home (-7)- they're 4-1 in last five bowls, but were favored in all five (1-4 vs spread). Spartans lost four of last five bowls, allowing 39.7 ppg in last three.

Armadillosports.com

Saturday Bowl Picks
By CarbonSports.com

Five Bowl games highlight Saturday's betting card and with these contests starting at 11:45 EST and ending with a game at 10:15 EST, bettors will be glued to their couches all afternoon. Here are two games that have caught my eye though.

Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force (-2) vs. Rice (+2); Total 61.5

This is the first game on the card and the early start might catch a few bettors off guard. But this start time won't be a shock for an Air Force team that is used to getting up in the wee hours of the morning for their training. Another advantage the Falcons have in this contest is their triple-option attack that can be devastating to opponents if they are unfamiliar with it. Air Force may have struggled down the stretch but the three losses in their last four all came on the road. Defensively they didn't play well in any of those contests and part of that is due to a lack of depth and being worn down by the end. The month off has given them time to recover and to try to finish with their sixth consecutive winning season.

Despite having the month to prepare, Rice's defense will struggle with this triple option attack all afternoon. They rank 96th in the nation in yards allowed per game and give up nearly 200 yards per contest on the ground (192.8). They did not face a dominating rushing team like this all season and the time off likely came at the worst time for them. Rice had won their final four games to become Bowl eligible but all that momentum is gone now. The Owls have only played in two Bowl games since 1961 (2006, 2008) and after an extended time away from post-season play, this team will be just happy to be here.

Lay the points with Air Force.

Alamo Bowl: Texas (+3) vs. Oregon State (-3); Total 57.5

This Pac-12/Big 12 showdown does give Texas a bit of a home field advantage being played in San Antonio, but Oregon State has been in town for a while now and has not minded taking on the traditional powerhouses all year. The Beavers have been ranked ever since they started the season 6-0 SU and beat the likes of UCLA, Wisconsin and BYU during that run.

However, the bigger news about this came surrounds Texas sending home two players, QB Case McCoy and LB Jordan Hicks for violating team rules. It is unclear which rules these two are being punished for but there is word out there that the two might have been involved in a potential rape case. If these allegations are true they are very serious and will likely rattle this entire team 24 hours before their game.

McCoy has been used at QB in a tandem type scenario all year and his absence means the pressure falls squarely on David Ash's shoulders. He gets to face a swarming defense that will be all over him in this one and he has struggled vs. similar teams like K-State, TCU and Oklahoma.

Oregon State hasn't been to a Bowl game since 2009 and is hungry to finish with a 10-win season for the first time since 2006. They have gone through the rigors of a tough Pac-12 schedule and thrived while Texas as stumbled numerous times in a Big 12 that isn't what it once was.

Lay the points with Oregon State.