College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, December 23, 2017

Saturday's Bowl Notes
December 22, 2017
By Bookmaker

Bowl Notes - Saturday, December 23

The second week of the college football bowl season kicks off on Saturday with three crucial affairs. Five of the very best Group of Five teams will be in action while the Group of Five will be represented by a Texas Tech team that desperately needs a win for its embattled head coach.

Guns Up

Kliff Kingsbury saved his job at his alma mater by the skin of his teeth this year. One of the reasons why he's getting a shot to come back for 2018 is because of the way his Red Raiders have played against non-conference teams. T-Tech hasn't always had great success in the Big XII, but the team is 8-2-1 ATS in its 11 non-conference games played over the course of the last three seasons, including going 4-0 ATS this year.

The Red Raiders have moved from +2 to +2.5 at BookMaker.eu against a South Florida team that only has losses this year to Houston and UCF.

The No-Fly Zone

If you love running the football, you're going to love the Armed Forces Bowl. San Diego State and Army only combine to throw the ball an average of 25.3 times per game against 104.3 rushing attempts. Virtually every single first down will be a running play by these teams, and even simple swing passes or basic wide receiver routes will seem like trick plays.

However, the Aztecs and Black Knights couldn't possibly be any different.

Ahmad Bradshaw is one of the more successful triple-option quarterbacks we've seen in recent memory. He isn't adept as a passer, but he's a fantastic runner and always seems to fall forward for extra yardage. After beating Navy for a second-straight season, Bradshaw can become the first quarterback in three decades to lead the Cadets to two bowl game wins in his career.

The key is going to be stopping San Diego State's two-headed monster in the backfield composing of Rashaad Penny and Juwan Washington.

Washington is clearly the second fiddle here, but he ran the ball 122 times for 715 yards and seven touchdowns, numbers that many No. 1 backs would love to have.

Penny, though, is a plodder and a special one at that. He had the ball in his hands 275 times this year and finished with 2,027 rushing yards with 19 touchdowns.

You'd think with a 4:1 ratio of runs to passes that the under would be a smart play. BookMaker.eu has largely only taken under action in the Armed Forces Bowl even though it has the total in this game listed at 45.5, one of the lowest totals of the entire bowl season.

The Rockets' Revenge?

Bowl game rematches don't happen often. In fact, before Clemson and Alabama met in the 2015 and 2016 National Championship Games (and now again this year in the Sugar Bowl), it hadn't happened since the 1992 and 1993 Orange Bowls between Florida State and Nebraska.

Though most will be focusing in on Alabama/Clemson Act III, don't lose sight of how good the Dollar General Bowl could be. Not only is this game already listed as a complete sellout, but Appalachian State and Toledo put on one heck of a show last year in the Camellia Bowl.

App State won 31-28, but Toledo literally never went away in that game. Appalachian State had leads of 7-0, 14-7, 21-14 and 28-21. Every time it scored a touchdown, the Rockets scored on the very next drive to tie the game. Toledo had no answer for Michael Rubino's game-winning field goal with 5:14 left to play.

Little did we know it at the time, but the dramatic ending of the Camellia Bowl only setup what could be a budding Group of Five rivalry between these two schools.

The Rockets, relatively easy winners of the MAC this season, are expected to exact their revenge. They opened up at -8 against Appalachian State, though BookMaker.eu has since dropped the spread to -7.

College Football Bowl Game Odds for Saturday, December 23
Birmingham Bowl: Texas Tech vs. South Florida (-2.5, 66.5)
Armed Forces Bowl: Army vs. San Diego State (-6, 45.5)
Dollar General Bowl: Appalachian State vs. Toledo (-7, 61)

Saturday's Best Bet
December 21, 2017
By BetDSI

NFL Week 16 Saturday Best Bet
Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

Week 16 brings us another double-header on Saturday as we've got two games pitting playoff contenders against teams already out of the mix, and the results of these two games should make for an interesting rest of the weekend in the AFC and NFC North divisions.

Baltimore hosts Indianapolis in the first contest as the Ravens look to sneak into one of those Wildcard spots for the time being in the AFC, while Minnesota visits Green Bay and continues their push to a possible #1 seed in the NFC.

It's that Vikings/Packers game I've already added to my betting board as this division rivalry might not have the same intensity as it has in the past given where both teams sit in the standings. I believe I can use that mindset to my advantage here as Week 16 begins.

BetDSI.eu Odds: Minnesota (-9); Total set at 40.5

Even if the Vikings aren't able to pass the Philadelphia Eagles for that #1 seed, securing a 1st round bye would still be a happy consolation prize for this team heading into the playoffs. The Super Bowl is in Minnesota this year so there is strong potential that they end up getting home field advantage throughout the post-season (with the #1 seed or not) should the Vikings finish the season strong, and sweeping the season series with the Packers would be another notch on their belts in 2017. Minnesota did win the first meeting 23-10 in the game where LB Anthony Barr broke Packers QB Aaron Rodgers collarbone and a win on Saturday would give Minnesota their first season sweep over Green Bay in years.

The Packers have decided to shut Rodgers down for the rest of the year now that they are eliminated from playoff contention, and now it's time to truly see what they've got in backup Brett Hundley. Yes, Hundley started those seven games with Rodgers on the shelf, but those games were all about trying to stay afloat in the playoff race and Green Bay's coaching staff really coached Hundley and called plays with that in mind. The Packers were stuck in the mentality of “playing not to lose” rather than going out and being aggressive during that seven-game stretch and while they did manage to go 3-4 SU, beating the likes of Cleveland (in OT), Tampa Bay (in OT), and Chicago isn't really anything to write home about.

However, with Green Bay's 2017 fate now determined, there is no more need for the Packers coaching staff to treat Hundley with kid gloves. They've got two more games left to truly see what they've got with him and how well he can conduct this offense, and I fully expect the Packers to let him loose in this game. There is nothing left to lose now for Green Bay, and seeing if Hundley can produce against a Vikings team that he has already faced once this year (albeit in relief), now becomes the goal for this organization.

Minnesota's goal this week is to simply win and move on and when you combine that mentality with the likelihood of Green Bay pulling out all the stops, that -9 on the road is a lot of chalk to swallow. Fading a team after they clinched a division crown is one strategy I'm never really against (in any sport) as intensity on both sides of the ball tend to let up a bit and this could be that spot for the Vikings. The home team in this rivalry is 10-4 ATS the past 14 meetings which includes a 2-6 ATS run for Minnesota in Green Bay, and with the underdog cashing ATS tickets in five of the last six contests, I believe it's take the points with the Packers or nothing here.

The side isn't the only play I like in this game though as this total of 40.5 is much too low for a game like this. I've already discussed the notions of Green Bay opening up the playbook and letting loose, and when you combine that with a letdown in focus/intensity for this Vikings team that's just accomplished their first goal for the year (ie win the division), chances are we see some points.

Seven of the past 10 trips to Lambeau Field have resulted in 'over' tickets cashing for the Vikings, and Minnesota is on a 4-1 O/U run after allowing 7 or fewer points in their last game. Minneosta is also 4-1 O/U in their last five on the road as their defense doesn't seem to always travel with them, and Hundley will definitely be more prepared for what that Minnesota defense brings this time around.

On Green Bay's side, the Packers are 6-1 O/U in their last seven division games, including a 3-0 O/U run when they are the home side. They are also 8-2 O/U in their last 10 against a winning team, 6-1 O/U after failing to cover a point spread in their last outing, and defensively this Packers unit has given up 23 or more points in eight straight games against teams with a winning record currently. With no playoff push left to play for, that Packers D could lack some intensity of their own and that's never a bad thing when rooting for points.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Best Bets:

Green Bay +9
Over 40.5 points

Saturday's Best Bet
December 21, 2017
By Intertops

Armed Forces Bowl Betting Preview
San Diego State vs. Army
Saturday, Dec. 23, 2017 (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Fresh off their second straight win over Navy (which is quite the feat considering Army had lost 14 in a row in that rivalry), the Army Black Knights are in a Bowl game for the second consecutive season as they square off against San Diego State in the Armed Forces Bowl. Bettors should expect a lot of rushing plays in this game as Army led the nation in rushing yards per game (355.8), while San Diego State wasn't too far behind at 11th in the country with 252.8 rushing yards per game.

All of that running will lead to the continuing to run, but will a short game lead to a defensive battle between these two?

Intertops.eu Odds: San Diego State (-6); Total set at 46

Not only was 2017 the second straight year Army beat their rivals from Navy, but it's the second straight year the Black Knights have gone Bowling as well. Last year it was a 38-31 OT win over North Texas in the Heart of Dallas Bowl, and this year it's a return to the Armed Forces Bowl for the first time since 2010 – Army's last Bowl appearance prior to 2016. Those were Army's only two Bowl appearances in this century (previous appearance was in 1996) and with both being victories, those grabbing the points with Army as an underdog hae to be feeling confident that recent history is somewhat on their side.

San Diego State is a program that's no stranger to Bowl appearances as this will be their eighth straight appearance in a Bowl game with the last seven all coming during the Rocky Long era at the school. 2017 also marks the third straight season this program has reached double-digit wins, but a 10-2 SU mark wasn't good enough to reach the Mountain West Championship game as a head-to-head defeat against Fresno cost them in that regard.

But since that lose the Aztecs finished the year 4-0 SU and ATS, dominating opponents with an average winning margin of 27.5 points. That kind of point differential can go a long way into garnering plenty of support from bettors in this game as they are seeing just under 70% of the wagers ATS according to VegasInsider.com right now. Yet this line actually opened up at San Diego State -7, so there has been some push back from the Army side getting some significant support and causing the reverse line movement.

Yet, looking into the side is not something I'm that interested in here as recent history in this Bowl game and these two teams plays throughout 2017 makes the total much more appealing. With two predominant running teams, oddsmakers were always going to be forced to put a lower total up, especially when you've got two defenses that give up less than 21 points per game. But just because the clock will be consistently running doesn't mean that points will always be hard to come by, as both of these teams had multiple games this year where they managed to put up 40+ themselves and I do believe we will see both sides bust out some long runs throughout the course of this game.

Furthermore, the Armed Forces Bowl has been a scoring fest the last three years as we've seen 69, 91, and 93 points scored in this game during that time. We aren't likely to see that many points in this contest, but 50+ points being scored is highly probable and that's more than enough to cash an 'over' ticket.

Army showed in last year's Bowl game that after a hard-fought, gruelling game with Navy, they preferred to open things up in the Bowl game and this year should be no different. Trying a few trick plays, throwing more passes, and keeping a San Diego State team (that sees the triple-option every year vs Air Force) off-balance is going to be a big part of the Black Knights gameplan. And even if it's not, San Diego State's defense only gave up 24 or more points three times this season and one of those did come against Air Force. As the top rushing team in the land, Army's triple-option attack is a bit more honed then the one Air Force brings to the table and I do expect the Black Knights to at least reach the 20's on the scoreboard.

San Diego State will have no worries about their own rushing game producing points either as they boast the nation's top rusher in Rashaad Penny (2027 rushing yards). Army's defense has had trouble against premier rushers in the past this year – they gave up 172 yards and 2 TD's on just 13 carries to Ohio State's J.K Dobbins, and San Diego State's ability to pass will continually keep Army's dffense off-balance and give Penny more than enough room to have success.

With the Aztecs offense scoring 28 or more points in nine of their 12 games this year, I'm trusting their offense to hit the high 20's at a minimum, especially with the recent history of this Bowl game favoring points. I see this game finishing with something like a 30-24 scoreline (likely in favor of the Aztecs), and that gives us plenty of room for error regarding the total as opposed to the side. So while conventional wisdom would suggest going 'under' a low number in a game featuring two teams that love the run the ball and bleed the clock, I'm going against that common perception here and expecting both teams to break numerous big runs and cash in with TD's when they can.

Odds per - Intertops.eu

Best Bet: Over 46 points