Betting Against the Public College Football Championship Week
Date 01st Dec 2017
AuthorCole Ryan
As quick as the college football started it is almost over. The college football schedule is starting to empty out and outside of the annual meeting between Army and Navy, the regular season is over. All that is left now is the conference championship games and the bowl season. This still provides plenty of opportunities to bet on football games, but it means the point spreads on every game will be much tighter as the book makers can focus on only a few games which in turn will make it very tough for the sports betting fans to find an edge.
One edge that will not go away is betting against the public. The college football betting public is out in full force this time of year. Not only do the professionals bet on the college football conference championship games, but you will find that many rookie bettors come out of the wood work to bet on these popular football games that are all on television and many of them in prime time. With that being said this could be the time of the year when betting against the public could show the most profit. Here is a look at two of the college football conference games that had the best opportunity heading into this weekend.
TCU Horned Frogs (+7) over the Oklahoma Sooners (75%)
One of the biggest misnomers in college football is the rematch. This happens in more than one championship game this season and will once again happen in the Big 12. The public will automatically run to the hot team that has already won once this season. The Sooners already trounced the Horned Frogs once this season and they are one of the hottest teams in college football this at this moment. That explains why the Sooners are already getting over 70 percent of the bets on this game. Baker Mayfield is also the betting favorite for the Heisman trophy which makes this an even more public bet this weekend. The Horned Frogs are a defensive club and they have one of the best coaches in the country when it comes to defensive adjustments. One other to look at is how the public fares in these games. Since 2005, teams attracting less than 50% of spread bets in conference championship games: 40-28-3 against the spread (ATS). That trend favors TCU and is more than enough reason to take the points in the Big 12 championship game.
Georgia Bulldogs (+2.5) over the Auburn Tigers (60%)
We find another rematch in the SEC championship game this weekend as the Georgia Bulldogs will try and get some revenge for an earlier season loss against the Auburn Tigers. The Tigers are riding high after a big win against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the Iron Bowl. That is why over 60 percent of the college football betting public is backing Auburn in this game. While it is not as high as over 70 percent like in the Big 12 championship game it is still worth backing the underdog in this game. Teams in a neutral site game that are getting less than 50 percent of the betting action are 339-305-12 ATS and if this dips below 40 percent (and it looks like it will) the underdog cashes in 56 percent of the time at 202-158-6 ATS. The underdogs are the play in several of the championship games and the same goes for Georgia. Betting against the public has never been stronger than it is in championship week in the world of college football.