College football
Weekend’s 13 best games
Idaho was +6 in turnovers, hammered Georgia State 37-12 at home LY, in teams’ first meeting. This is Vandals’ last I-A football game; they drop down to I-AA next year. Idaho lost its last three games, scoring total of 17 points in last two- they’re 4-1 vs spread as road underdogs this year, losing away games by 9-47-3-7 points, with win at So Alabama. Georgia State won three of its last four games, with wins by 8-4-3 points. Panthers are 1-1-1 vs spread as a favorite this year. Under is 7-1 in last eight Idaho games, 4-1 in State’s last five games.
UL-Lafayette lost three of last five games; they allowed 50-34-34 points in last three. Cajuns are 1-5 when they allow 220+ rushing yards- they’re 2-3-1 as road underdogs this year. Appalachian State won its last two games 27-6/31-10, running ball for 579 yards; ASU won all three of its games vs ULL, winning by 24-21-19 points (2-1 vs spread). Mountaineers are 2-1 as home favorites this season. Last three ULL games went over the total; under is 5-3-1 in last nine ASU games. Sun Belt home favorites are 9-15 vs spread this season.
Georgia Southern won its last two games after an 0-9 start, scoring 86 points; they covered four of last five games. Eagles are favored over a I-A team for first time this season- they’re 0-5 on road this year, with 27-6 loss the closest of the five games. Coastal Carolina is 2-9 in its first year of I-A football, beating Idaho LW after a 9-game losing streak. Chanticleers scored 17 or less points in three of their last four games- they’re 1-3 at home this year, beating UMass in opener. Four of last six Coastal games went over total; over is 7-2 in last nine GSU games.
Arkansas State won its last four games with Troy, scoring 35+ points in all four games. Troy lost its opener at Boise State, then won nine of last 10 games, losing as an 18-point favorite to South Alabama. Trojans won their last four road games, including a SU win at LSU. Arkansas State won six of its last seven games, with only loss to USA; Red Wolves are 3-0 at home, thanks to a home game with Miami being cancelled by the hurricane in September. Three of last four Troy games went over total; four of last five ASU games stayed under.
C-USA title game. Boca Raton
Florida Atlantic ran ball for 447 yards, passed for 357 more in 69-31 thrashing of North Texas Oct 21, in game that was 41-7 at half- that was FAU’s first win in last five tries vs North Texas, but tams’ previous meeting was in 2014. FAU won its last eight games, seven by 18+ points; they’re 6-2 vs spread in last eight games. North Texas is 5-0 wince the loss at FAU; they’re 4-2 vs spread as an underdog this season. Over is 5-2 in last seven FAU games, 6-3 in Mean Green’s last nine. FAU ran ball for 318+ yards in five of last seven games.
AAC title game, Orlando
Central Florida ran ball for 350 yards, gained 603 yards and pounded Memphis 40-13 Sept 30; Knights are 10-0 vs Memphis, 2-3 vs spread in last five. Memphis is 7-0 since the UCF loss, 6-1 vs spread- they scored 41+ points in last five games. UCF won wild 49-42 game with USF last week, when Bulls tied game in last 2:00, but UCF ran ensuing kickoff back for GW score. UCF covered only once in its last five games- they’re 3-0 vs spread this year when spread was single digits. Six of last eight UCF games, four of last five Memphis games went over total.
MAC title game, Ford Field, Detroit
Toledo ran ball for 303 yards, pounded Akron 48-21 at home Oct 21. Rockets covered six of last seven games overall- they won six of last eight games with Zips, beating them 48-17 LY. Toledo is 7-3 vs spread as a favorite this season. Akron won three of last four games since the Toledo loss; Zips are 3-3 vs spread as a double digit underdog this season. Akron was held to 17 or less points in four of its five losses. Under is 9-2 in Akron games this season, 3-1 in last four Toledo games. This is first MAC title game since ’05 for Zips, ’04 for Toledo.
SEC title game, Atlanta
Auburn beat Georgia 40-17 Nov 11, outgaining Dawgs 488-230, running ball for 237 yards; Tigers are only 3-9 in last 12 games vs Georgia. Auburn won its last five games overall- they won Iron Bowl last week, have to bounce back here with another strong effort. Georgia’s 20-19 win at Notre Dame in September is only game they played all year that was decided by less than 14 points- their loss to Auburn is their only loss this season. Dawgs lost SEC title game in 2011-12; they last won it in 2005. Auburn won its last appearance here, over Missouri in 2013.
Mountain West title game, Boise
Fresno State (+6.5) upset Boise 28-17 at home last Saturday; Bulldogs won eight of last nine games after losing at Alabama/Washington in September. Fresno won its last four games overall, allowing 14.5 ppg- they’re 5-0 vs spread as an underdog. Boise State had won seven in a row before last week; Broncos are 4-1 vs spread this year in games with single-digit spread. Boise is in Mountain West title game for first time in three years; Fresno won it in 2013, lost it the next year. Under is 7-0-1 in last eight Fresno games, over is 3-2 in last five Boise games.
ACC title game, Charlotte
Clemson beat Miami 58-0 in teams’ last meeting two years ago; Tigers won ACC title game last two years, 45-37/42-35. Hurricanes are in this game for first time- ‘canes lost at Pitt LW, but still have shot at national playoff. Miami is 4-1 vs spread in games where spread was single digits. Clemson won its last five games since their loss at Syracuse, when QB Bryant got hurt- they covered last three games, Tigers are 3-0 vs spread in games with single-digit spread. Eight of last nine Miami games stayed under total; under is 6-2-1 in last nine Clemson games.
Big 14 title game, Indianapolis
Unbeaten Wisconsin gets into playoff with upset win here; Badgers held 11 of 12 opponents to 17 or less points- they’re underdog for first time this year. Wisconsin is in Big 14 title game for 5th time in seven years- they lost 59-0 to Ohio State three years, lost 38-31 to Penn State LY. Ohio State won last three games, outscoring foes 131-37; they beat rival Michigan 31-20 LW. Buckeyes haven’t been in Big 14 title game the last two years. Eight of last nine Ohio State games went over total; over is 7-5 in Wisconsin games.
Big 12 title game, Dallas
Oklahoma (-6) beat TCU 38-20 at home three weeks ago- game was 38-14 at the half. Sooners outgained TCU 533-424. Oklahoma won its last seven games since a 38-31 home loss to Iowa State Oct 7- they covered four of last five games. TCU is 3-2 in its last five games after a 7-0 start, losing to Iowa St/Sooners; Horned Frogs got senior QB Hill back from injury LW- he missed the Texas Tech game two weeks ago. Over is 6-4 in Sooners’ last ten games; seven of last eight TCU games stayed under. This is first Big X title game since 2010; Sooners won five of last seven Big X championship games.
NCAAF Conference Championship Week action report: Sharps and squares lining up on Oklahoma, Clemson
Dec 2, 2017 |
By: Patrick Everson
The College Football Playoff could clear up nicely in Week 14, or could become chaotic, depending on how things play out on this early-December Saturday. Covers checks in on the action and line movement for the remaining Power Five conference championships and other noteworthy games, with insights from Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US in Las Vegas, and Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics, also in Las Vegas.
No. 12 Texas Christian Horned Frogs vs. No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners – Open: -7; Move: None
Oklahoma should cement its spot in the CFP, provided it wins and plays well enough in the Big 12 final to keep the playoff committee from voting idle Alabama into the four-team tournament. The Sooners (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS) capped the regular season with a 59-31 wipeout of West Virginia as a 23-point home favorite last week.
TCU (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) also rolled in its regular-season finale with a 45-22 victory over Baylor as a 24.5-point home chalk. However, the Horned Frogs went to Oklahoma just three weeks ago and fell behind 38-14 at halftime, ultimately losing 38-20 as a 6-point underdog.
Today’s game is at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys, with kickoff at 12:30 p.m. ET.
“We’re hammered with Oklahoma money. That’s our biggest decision, so hopefully the Horned Frogs show up,” Bogdanovich said, noting William Hill has patiently stayed at Sooners -7, but that could change. “We might go to 7.5. We’re a favorite to go to 7.5 at some point.”
CG Technology books, including shops on the Vegas Strip at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian, opened Oklahoma -6 Sunday and got to 7 by Monday.
“Public and sharp money all on Oklahoma,” Bernanke said. “Three times more money over the counter and five times more money on account coming in on Oklahoma.”
No. 6 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 4 Auburn Tigers – Open: -3; Move: -2.5; Move: -2; Move: -1.5; Move: -1
Auburn put together a hellacious stretch to cap the regular season, which could allow entry into the CFP despite two losses earlier in the season. The Tigers (10-2 SU, 6-4-2 ATS) toppled a pair of previously unbeatens, Georgia and Alabama, to earn a rematch with the Bulldogs. Last week, Auburn went off as a 6-point home pup and stuffed the Crimson Tide 26-14.
Georgia will obviously have revenge on its mind, along with that playoff spot, in today’s 4 p.m. start at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The Bulldogs (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS) bounced back from the Auburn loss with two blowout wins – 42-13 over Kentucky as a 23.5-point home chalk, and 38-7 at Georgia Tech laying 11.5 points.
“We’re down to 1,” Bogdanovich said of the line dipping 2 points from the opener. “We’re dead-even to the game. I’m assuming sharps are on Georgia. I don’t anticipate it being a big decision either way, though.”
Bernanke said early in the week, CG was seeing sharp and public play on Auburn, taking the line from Tigers -2 to -2.5. However, the line ticked down to 2 late Wednesday and on Friday dropped all the way to pick ‘em.
No. 7 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 1 Clemson Tigers – Open: -6.5; Move: -7; Move: -7.5; Move: -8; Move: -9; Move: -8.5; Move: -9; Move: -8.5; Move: -9
Clemson appears more than back on track with its efforts to defend the national championship. The Tigers (11-1 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) stubbed their toe in a big way at Syracuse in mid-October, but have since gone 5-0 SU (3-1-1 ATS), capped by a 34-10 win over South Carolina as a 12.5-point road fave.
Previously unbeaten Miami had its CFP destiny firmly within its own hands heading into Week 13, then came up lame at Pittsburgh. The Hurricanes (10-1 SU, 5-6 ATS) tumbled 24-14 as a 12-point road chalk,
Although the line made a big leap from Clemson -6.5 to -9 at CG books, Bernanke said that was driven more by adjustments to the market than by action.
“Most of the wagering that’s come on this line is at 9,” Bernanke said. Sharp action was split, while the public favored Clemson for this 8 p.m. ET clash at Bank of American Stadium in Charlotte, N.C.
At William Hill US, which operates dozens of sportsbooks around Las Vegas among more than 100 throughout Nevada, Clemson opened -7.5 on Sunday, reached 9 by Wednesday and ticked up to 9.5 on Friday afternoon.
“All the money’s on Clemson,” Bogdanovich said. “No one is believing in Miami. The public and the sharps are on the favorite.
No. 7 Ohio State Buckeyes at No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers – Open: -5.5; Move: -6; Move: -6.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5
Wisconsin is the last undefeated team in the mix for the four-team CFP and certainly hopes to stay that way in an 8 p.m. ET game at Indianapolis’ Lucas Oil Stadium. The Badgers (12-0 SU, 8-4 ATS) are coming off a 31-0 blanking of Minnesota, easily cashing as 18-point road chalk.
Ohio State is another two-loss team hoping to find its way into the playoff. The Buckeyes (10-2 SU, 5-7 ATS) fended off Michigan 31-20 laying 12.5 points on the road last week.
“Sharps are on both sides. I think there was a group on Ohio State early, then a group on Wisconsin,” Bogdanovich said of activity causing the line to bounce back and forth throughout the week, returning to the opener of Buckeyes -5.5 late Friday. “We’ll see what happens with the public (today). Right now, we’re dead-even to it.”
CG’s early movement on this game was much like the ACC game, quickly shooting from 4 to 6 more on market moves than on action.
“All the wagering’s being done when this line hits 6,” Bernanke said. CG spent much of the week at 6, but went down to 5.5 Friday morning, with three times more sharp money favoring the underdog Badgers, and public action split.
No. 14 Memphis Tigers at No. 11 Central Florida Knights – Open: -7; Move: None
Central Florida is also undefeated as it preps for the American Athletic Conference title tilt, but has no chance whatsoever of reaching the CFP, holding out hopes for a high-profile bowl game. The Knights (11-0 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) hung on in a shootout against South Florida last week, winning 49-42 while falling short as a 10-point favorite.
Memphis (10-1 SU, 7-3-1 ATS) has won seven in a row SU and been almost perfect at the betting window in that stretch, at 6-0-1 ATS. The Tigers’ high-octane offense combined for 136 points over the final two games, hanging a 70-burger on East Carolina last week in a 70-13 victory laying 29.5 points.
That said, when Memphis and UCF met Sept. 30, the host Knights rolled 40-13 as a 5.5-point chalk. Bernanke said the total has been getting a lot of attention this week, opening at a whopping 85.5 and dropping to 81 by Friday.
“We’ve seen a lot of public money, over-the-counter money, on the under to push it down. A lot of bettors feel that total is a little too high,” Bernanke said. “As far as the line, it has not moved yet.”
In fact, action has been light on this game at CG, with the home-team Knights drawing sharp support and the public split.
William Hill US also opened at 7 and hasn’t moved.
“Not a lot of money on this yet,” Bogdanovich said, while anticipating a little more action before the noon ET start. “It should be a good-bet game. Both teams are lighting it up. I think we’ll need the ‘dog at kickoff.”
Big money to be made from betting these small conference college football championships in Las Vegas
These championship games aren't the biggest matchups on the college football slate this weekend but you could certainly cash in big time. We're inside the Cosmopolitan getting insight into the odds, action and line moves for the small conference championships from Will Bernanke of CG Technology in Las Vegas.
North Texas Mean Green at Florida Atlantic Owls – Open: -8; Move: -9.5; Move: -10; Move: -10.5; Move: -11.5; Move: -12; Move: -12.5
Lane Kiffin’s Florida Atlantic squad heads into the Conference USA title game riding an eight-game SU winning streak (6-2 ATS). The Owls (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) coasted past North Carolina-Charlotte 31-12 last week as a 24.5-point fave.
North Texas is also 9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS, but is the road team for this noon ET contest, thanks to getting spanked at FAU earlier this season 69-31 catching 3.5 points. The Mean Green went 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS after that beatdown, capping the regular season with a 30-14 win at Rice giving 12.5 points.
“There’s money on FAU every week, and the Owls already beat this North Texas team unmercifully,” Bogdanovich said. “The public is on FAU. I think there will be some sharp buyback if this line gets high enough.”
The number hit 12.5 late Friday night at William Hill. CG Technology opened the Owls -10.5 and reached 13.5 late Friday.
“This could be Lane Kiffin’s last game” at FAU, Bernanke said, noting rumors of Kiffin moving back to a higher-profile job. “He’s made that program relevant.”
CG’s bettors certainly are buying in this week, with 90 percent of action – both sharps and public – backing the Owls.
In other games of interest at William Hill US:
• Fresno State at Boise State: The Broncos have stuck as a 9-point favorite all week, with not even a price adjustment off the flat -110 for the 7:45 p.m. ET kickoff to decide the Mountain West Conference title. “We haven’t moved, and we’re dead-even at 9,” Bogdanovich said.
• Akron vs. Toledo: The Rockets opened -17 and got as high as 21.5, before ticking back to 21 Friday afternoon for the Mid-American Conference championship game. “Sharp money on Toledo early,” Bogdanovich said. Kickoff is at noon ET at Detroit’s Ford Field.
• Troy at Arkansas State: The host Red Wolves opened as 1.5-point chalk in the Sun Belt Conference final, but Troy money took this game to pick ‘em by Friday. “A sharp group on Troy, but not a lot of money on that game,” Bogdanovich said of this 7:30 p.m. ET meeting.
Title Tips - Group of Five
November 28, 2017
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Playing for a championship is the goal of every program and nine conference champions will be decided this weekend, eight coming on Saturday.
College Playoff berths are not on the line in the Conference USA, AAC, MAC, and Mountain West games but all four contests will feature regular season rematches to fill out the championship Saturday schedule.
CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP
Matchup: North Texas Mean Green at Florida Atlantic Owls
Venue: At FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida
Time/TV: Saturday, December 2, 12:00 PM ET, ESPN2
Line: Florida Atlantic -11, Over/Under 73½
Last Meeting: October 21, 2017 at Florida Atlantic (-3½) 69-31
Lane Kiffin is only 42 but he has already been the former head coach of the Oakland Raiders, Tennessee, and USC. After rebuilding his tarnished reputation as an assistant at Alabama for three seasons he surprised many by taking over at Florida Atlantic. It has proven to be a wise move for the trajectory of his career with a great season in Boca Raton and likely some options available to him if he chooses to pursue another position higher up the college football ladder.
The Owls went 3-9 last season and started this season 1-3 while also dealing with the complications of Hurricane Irma in September. Florida Atlantic wound up as one of three teams in the nation to go undefeated in conference play. Florida Atlantic averaged 39.8 points per game with the sixth most productive rushing attack in the nation. North Texas was just 1-11 in 2015 before Seth Littrell took over the program. The Mean Green managed to get a bowl invite at 5-7 last year, losing to Army in the Heart of Dallas Bowl but delivering a season of improvement. This year’s team is now 9-3 with the only loss after a 1-2 start coming in Boca Raton.
North Texas is without Jeffery Wilson who led the team in rushing as they look for their first conference title since winning four Sun Belt titles in a row from 2001-2004. Nic Smith has been very productive as his replacement and Mason Fine had the top quarterback rating in Conference USA, just ahead of FAU’s Jason Driskel while attempting nearly twice as many passes.
2017 Meeting: The Owls had a record setting day hosting North Texas is October with 69 points and 804 total yards. It was 24-0 not even 14 minutes into the game and 41-7 at halftime. North Texas did wind up with 31 points and 420 yards as well but three turnovers on the first five possessions put the Mean Green in a substantial hole.
Series History: Florida Atlantic won the first six meetings between these teams from 2004 to 2009, going 5-1 ATS in the run as well. North Texas won all four meeting from 2010 to 2014, going 3-1 ATS. October’s blowout win for Florida Atlantic in Boca Raton was the first meeting since November of 2014.
AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
Matchup: Memphis Tigers at Central Florida Knights
Venue: At Bright House Networks Stadium in Orlando, Florida
Time/TV: Saturday, December 2, 12:00 PM ET, ABC
Line: Central Florida -7½, Over/Under 82
Last Meeting: September 30, 2017 at Central Florida (-5½) 40-13
The top two quarterbacks in the AAC face off in the third ever AAC Championship and the first appearance in the game for either program. UCF last played for a championship losing the 2012 Conference USA title game to Tulsa while Memphis and UCF were co-champions of the AAC with Cincinnati in the 2014 season before the league had divisions.
Sophomore McKenzie Milton followed Scott Frost to UCF and after emerging as the starter as a freshman last season he was the AAC’s top rated passer (2nd nationally) this season with 30 touchdowns against six interceptions, completing 69 percent of his passes on 10.3 yards per attempt. Milton has also rushed for 429 yards leading a Knights offense that scored 47.6 points per game to pace the nation. Riley Ferguson delivered a fine senior season for Memphis with 32 touchdown throws and 3,500 passing yards. At 6’4” Ferguson could be a mid-round NFL draft pick in April. As the total suggests both offenses are capable of huge numbers with Memphis scoring 44.3 points per game.
The head coaches will be bigger storylines than the quarterbacks however as it is assumed the Scott Frost will be departing Orlando for a power five job. His Alma Mater Nebraska certainly is interested but there could be other schools in play as well, including possibly Florida State should that position open up. Memphis head coach Mike Norvell is 18-6 in two seasons at Memphis and also will likely have the opportunity to interview for a few openings as well. He played at Central Arkansas as the opening in Fayetteville seems like a possibility but he also was an assistant at Arizona State before taking over at Memphis.
2017 Meeting: Originally scheduled for the second week of the season this game was shuffled along with several other AAC games following Hurricane Irma, played in late September when UCF has originally scheduled FCS Maine and Memphis had originally scheduled a game at Georgia State. UCF had only played two games but they had outscored Florida International and Maryland 99-27 with the win at Maryland turning some heads as the Terrapins were 2-0 with a win over Texas. UCF has clear edges statistically and led 23-7 before eventually leading 40-7 with the Tigers adding a late touchdown. UCF had a 603-396 yardage edge with a 4-1 turnover edge. The rushing edge was most prominent with a 350-75 advantage for the Knights.
Series History: Central Florida has won S/U 10 meetings in a row in this series going back to 2005 with the last win for Memphis coming in 1990 when UCF was not playing at the top college football level. Memphis has covered in three of the last five meetings going back to 2010 with this September’s 40-13 win for the Knights the first meeting since 2013. The highest scoring meeting between these teams didn’t quite reach this year’s total with a 56-20 result in favor of UCF in 2007.
MAC CHAMPIONSHIP
Matchup: Akron Zips at Toledo Rockets
Venue: At Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan
Time/TV: Saturday, December 2, 12:00 PM ET, ESPN
Line: Toledo -21½, Over/Under 57½
Last Meeting: October 21, 2017 at Toledo (-15) 48-21
Toledo has been one of the better teams in the MAC for much of the last decade but the Rockets haven’t been to the MAC Championship since winning the 2004 title. The Rockets are 10-2 with only one MAC loss and a loss to highly rated Miami, FL in the non-conference schedule. Senior quarterback Logan Woodside has 24 touchdown passes with just three interceptions to finish fourth nationally in quarterback rating.
Playing as the biggest favorite of championship weekend, run defense might be the biggest weakness for Toledo, allowing 170.8 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry. Akron isn’t a great threat to exploit that weakness as the Zips were out-rushed in all 11 FBS games this season but the Zips have some momentum with a late season upset of Ohio to move up in the MAC East standings, clinching this spot with a win over rival Kent State last week.
Terry Bowden is in his sixth season at Akron with now five straight seasons of finishing at least 5-7 after the program went 1-11 in three consecutive seasons including Bowden’s first with the program in 2012. Akron was 5-3 last season before losing the final four games to miss a bowl bid as this has been a redemptive campaign. Akron senior quarterback Thomas Woodson hasn’t played the past three games after being suspended for a violation of team rules. Freshman Kato Nelson has played well since taking over and while Bowden has said that Woodson is available he hasn’t made it clear what the plan will be as they look for an upset.
2017 Meeting: Toledo led 21-0 after the first quarter and coasted to a 48-21 win with a 626-333 yardage edge. The Rockets only lined up for 3rd down nine times and converted six times to move the ball with ease throughout the game. Toledo had 11 penalties for 104 yards compared to none for Akron as that could be an area of emphasis for second year head coach Jason Candle who is now 19-6 in two seasons and could get some calls from athletic directors around the country in the coming weeks.
Series History: Toledo has won nine of 12 meetings S/U since 1992 though going just 2-3 ATS since 2008. This season and last season the result was nearly identical with a 48-17 win at Akron last season and a 48-21 home victory for the Rockets in October. Akron’s last win in the series came in 2013 at home wining 31-29 (+11) and this is set to be the highest spread ever in the series.
MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERNCE CHAMPIONSHIP
Matchup: Fresno State Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos
Venue: At Albertson’s Stadium in Boise, Idaho
Time/TV: Saturday, December 2, 7:45 PM ET, ESPN
Line: Boise State -9, Over/Under 49
Last Meeting: November 25, 2017 at Fresno State (+6½) 28-17
Boise State won eight WAC titles from 2002 to 2010 but the program has won the Mountain West championship just twice and just once since the championship game format started. That title came by virtue of beating Fresno State in 2014 in Boise 28-14, though falling well short of an over three-touchdown spread. The Broncos have won 10 or more games in 14 of the last 18 seasons and they will hit that mark with a win this weekend (or with a bowl win).
The Broncos have several notable upsets vs. power five schools in recent years but they missed in both opportunities in September. This year’s team drew one of the tougher schedules in the conference having to play San Diego State and Colorado State on the road with those teams generally considered the preseason division favorites. Quarterback Brett Rypien didn’t match the numbers he posted last season and wound up splitting a lot of time with Montell Cozart as the Broncos had some inconsistency on offense but were one of the top defensive teams in the conference.
Jeff Tedford had success in 11 seasons at California before he was let go after the 2012 season. He coached in the NFL in 2014 and the CFL in 2015 before returning to college football as an assistant at Washington last season. This season has led one of the great turnarounds in college football with the Bulldogs going from 1-11 to 9-3 and playing for a conference championship at his Alma Mater. Always known as a quarterback developer he has turned Oregon State transfer Marcus McMaryion to one of the top players in the conference. The Fresno State defense is also 12th nationally in scoring defense allowing just 17.3 points per game for a dramatic improvement from last season.
2017 Meeting: These teams played last week in Fresno knowing that they would play again in this championship game this week. Fresno State prevailed 28-17 to pull away after Boise State closed to within two points in the fourth quarter. There were no turnovers and the yardage was nearly even with third down success the biggest difference in the box score.
Series History: Boise State is 13-4 S/U in this series since 1996 with a 12-4 ATS record however Fresno State has covered in the past three meetings. Prior to last week’s 28-17 win for Fresno State at home these teams last met in the MWC Championship in 2014 with Boise State winning 28-14 but falling short of a -23 spread at home. None of the S/U wins for Fresno State in this series have come in Boise.