College Football Betting News and Notes, Saturday, December 9th, 2017

Saturday's Best Bet
December 8, 2017
By Bookmaker

Army – Navy Betting Preview (CBS, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Army Black Knights vs Navy Midshipmen

The 2017 College Football regular season is complete, the Bowls and CFB Playoff is set, and now all we've got to tide us over until Bowl Season officially begins is the annual Army/Navy game on Saturday.

This is a historic rivalry game that drums up all the pageantry it can, but the result still means the world to these military academies and after 14 years of talking about the same scenario coming into this game, we actually have to take a different for this year's contest.

Bookmaker.eu Odds: Navy (-3); Total set at 46

After 14 consecutive years of Navy winning this football game, Army finally was able to snap that streak and beat Navy last year with a 21-17 win. It was a little crazy that a streak like that went on for so long between these two programs as they play the same style of football (triple-option) and there wasn't always a huge gap between talent on the two sides. Executing at the higher level of each of those 14 games propelled the Midshipmen to that streak, and now they are the ones spending the week searching for ways to win this year.

There might not a big disparity in talent for most of those 14 years, but during the latter half of that streak there usually was a decisive advantage for Navy. But the Midshipmen are in a bit of a transition period these days – as we saw with the loss to Army last year – and they actually come into this Army/Navy game with the worse record of the two programs at 6-5 SU. In fact, Army could win the Commanders In Chief Trophy (awarded to military academy with best head-to-head records against the other) for the first time since the mid-90's if they are able to get their 9th win of 2017 in this game.

So with Army having the better side this year and not having to deal with the seemingly never-ending question of how they can beat Navy anymore, it's hard not to like the points with the Black Knights in this game. But, even with the worse SU record, Navy is favored by the oddsmakers for a reason, and maybe last year's loss to Army was more of a blip on the radar for the Midshipmen. They are still 14-1 SU the past 15 years in this game and it that type of history makes a play on the side tougher to submit.

Plays on the total for Army/Navy games haven't been tough to submit for bettors for years as whenever the line opens, the 'under' automatically gets hit and hit hard. Bettors have been cashing in on Army/Navy 'under' plays every year since the 2005 version and with both teams employing the triple-option attack it's easy to see why. Running the ball constantly keeps the clock rolling, limits exposure to big plays, and long drives are hard to always pay off with TD's. And who could forget that Army has won multiple games this year without throwing a single pass.

Well this year's game was no different as this total opened up as high as 51 at some sportsbooks, instantly got hit on the 'under' and 'under' money hasn't stopped showing up since. Now we've got a total of 46 hanging up there and there comes a point when a number has actually moved too much. Is that what we've got here?

In this specific I believe we do, as all streaks must come to an end, and after Army was finally able to beat Navy last year, this is the year that we see a “shootout” from these military academies. Call it a hunch, a “gut play” or whatever you like as there really isn't much historical support for an 'over' play in this game. When you've got 12 straight 'unders' in the rivalry you simply aren't going to find much in that regard. But with no streak left to play for, I actually believe we will see these two teams loosen things up a bit overall.

These two teams are still ones that averaged more than 30 points per game this year and it's not like big plays can't be had in the running game. Triple-option plays can be so effective at times if defenses overplay a specific read and the offense goes with another option and it's why these predominantly running teams can still average so many points per game. Both defenses have taken a step back this year, and while motivation levels will be high for both sides, I'm not sure I can trust these defenses to hold their opponent to less than 24 points.

Navy's defense has allowed 24+ in seven straight games to close out the year, and in their game against Air Force (another triple-option team), the final score was 48-45 as those two military schools ran up and down the field on one another. Army beat that same Air Force team 21-0 in nasty conditions, so asking Army to put up 24+ against this Navy unit that has a history of getting gashed isn't all that much.

Army's defense is coming off a 52-49 loss against North Texas a few weeks ago as their defense got exposed for the first time in a few weeks. Most of North Texas' damage was done through the air which is less of a concern here, but they still give up 4.8 rush yards per attempt on the season, and if Navy can use that to their advantage, the Midshipmen will put up their fair share of points as well.

So while everyone will state that taking an Army/Navy game 'over' the total is a little loose with the bankroll because it never goes over, that's only the case until it isn't. The number is simply too low now for two teams that had average final scores of 52.8/game (Army) and 59.6/game (Navy) and going against the grain and taking the 'over' is eventually going to pay off. I'm betting it happens this year, as all those bettors who've spent the last 12 years collecting their extra Christmas money after this game will need to use their credit cards a little more this season for their holiday shopping.

Odds per - Bookmaker.eu

Best Bet: Over 46