College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, November 1

Top 25 Betting Recap - Week 9
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com

Week 9 of the 2014 NCAA football betting season is in the books, and today, we're going to be taking a look at each of the Top 25 teams in the rankings and see how they did from an ATS perspective in this go around this past week.

(Results in parentheses represent SU Result-ATS Result)

1) Mississippi State (W-L vs. Kentucky 45-31)
The Bulldogs defense has really come into question after the win against UK.

2) Florida State (Bye)

3) Ole Miss (L-L vs. LSU 10-7)
That's the "Bad Bo" that Ole Miss fans were afraid was going to end up coming out at some point this season.

4) Alabama (W-W vs. Tennessee 34-20)
The Tide rolled on against the Vols on Saturday, and the door really seems open at this point to reach the playoff.

5) Michigan State (W-W vs. Michigan 35-11)
MSU will be sad to know that that was almost certainly the last time that Brady Hoke will ever come to East Lansing.

6) Auburn (W-L vs. South Carolina 42-35)
The Tigers survived a scare, but they have to get their stuff in order before heading to Oxford next week.

7) Oregon (W-W vs. Cal 59-41)
The Ducks looked a bit out of sorts at times with Stanford on deck.

8) Notre Dame (Bye)

9) Georgia (Bye)

10) TCU (W-W vs. Texas Tech 82-27)
If you didn't believe that Trevone Boykin was a Heisman Trophy contender before, you do now.

11) Kansas State (W-W vs. Texas 23-0)
Why is no one talking about KSU as a pick for the college football playoff?

12) Ohio State (W-L vs. Penn State 31-24)
The Buckeyes have no reason to be anything but 10-1 going to East Lansing the last week of the regular season.

13) Baylor (Bye)

14) Arizona State (W-W vs. Washington 24-10)
The Sun Devils have won three in a row since getting blasted by UCLA.

15) Arizona (W-W vs. Washington State 59-37)
Connor Halliday had another one of these days for the Cougs, but this time, Arizona didn't need a Hail Mary to beat an up-and-down-the-field team.

16) Nebraska (W-W vs. Rutgers 42-24)
Ameer Abdullah just keeps racking up huge games.

17) East Carolina (W-L vs. Connecticut 31-21)
The Pirates might be the best of the "rest" this year, but games like the UConn game won't help their case.

18) Oklahoma (Bye)

19) Utah (W-W vs. USC 24-21)
The Utes definitely proved that they are legit by beating USC and earning a sweep of the LA schools.

20) Clemson (W-L vs. Syracuse 16-6)
The Cole Stoudt v2.0 era hasn't been stellar for the Clemson offense.

21) USC (L-L vs. Utah 24-21)
The Men of Troy can probably kiss any hopes of a Rose Bowl bid goodbye.

22) Marshall (W-L vs. Florida Atlantic 35-16)
Marshall's perfect season rolls on, as it seems to be on a crash course for a date with La Tech in the C-USA title game.

23) LSU (W-W vs. Ole Miss 10-7)
Never count out The Hat in games like these, especially in the Bayou at night. Ole Miss' perfect season is gone.

24) Minnesota (L-L vs. Illinois 28-24)
Minnesota was clearly the worst 6-1 team in America. Now, it's probably the worst 6-2 team in America.

25) West Virginia (W-W vs. Oklahoma State 34-10)
The Mountaineers could legitimately stake a claim to the Big XII title if they can beat TCU this weekend.

College Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Auburn at Mississippi

The eyes of most college football fans as well as those focused on college football betting will be on arguably the best game of the weekend which takes place in Oxford where Ole Miss (7-1, 6-1-1 ATS) will hosts Auburn (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS). Despite Ole Miss' disappointing offensive effort in last weeks 10-7 loss at LSU the Rebels offense has been solid this season putting up 31.9 PPG while it's elite defense has held opponents to a miniscule 10.5 PPG. On the other side, Tigers balanced offense amasses 39.3 PPG with it's 'D' allowing 20.7 PPG. Tigers do have a slew of betting trends in their favor as they sport a 4-1 ATS streak against Ole Miss, 10-3 ATS record facing a team with a winning record, 10-2 ATS stretch in conference action. However, we’re going to buck those trends and stick with the home squad knowing Rebels should be able to shutdown Auburn’s bread/butter ground game while also taking advantage of Tigers defensive unit which has taken a step backwards the past two weeks allowing a whopping 36.5 PPG. Look for Ole Miss to improve it's 8-3 ATS mark following a loss, 19-9 ATS record after scoring less than 20 points the previous effort.

Stanford at Oregon

Ducks (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) have won and cashed three in a row since the stunning home loss to Arizona. 'Quack Attack' lead by Marcus Mariota (2283 yds, 24 TD, 1 Int) racking up 45.5 PPG should best inconsistent Stanford (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) scoring 25.8 per/contest. However, Stanford sporting the nation's second best scoring defense (12.5 PPG) it won't be a cake walk for Oregon. Duck bettors could get tripped up laying 9.5 points. Stanford has won/covered last two meetings, Ducks are 3-6 ATS L9 vs the conference, 4-8 ATS laying 9 or more points, 6-6 ATS L12 at Autzen Stadium.

Texas Longhorns at Texas Tech

Offensively challenged Horns (20.8 PPG) blanked 23-0 by KSU this past week have a real shot a some rare offensive fireworks when they visit Texas Tech. The Red Raiders shredded 82-27 by TCU Saturday are giving up a whopping 42.5 points/game. The lean is Longhorns knowing they're 4-1 ATS after scoring 15 or less points, 4-0 ATS last four in the series while Red Raiders enter 5-16 ATS in November, 3-7 ATS in conference games.

Bad Company - Week 10
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Heading into the first Saturday of November, there are a handful of teams looking to avoid getting routed in conference action. Florida is fresh off the bye week, taking on rival Georgia in Jacksonville, while Kansas is a heavy underdog against an explosive Baylor squad. We’ll start with a battle of two military schools for an early kickoff.

Army (+3½) vs. Air Force

Since outlasting Buffalo in the season opener, Army has failed to cover in five of the past six games. The Black Knights have allowed at least 35 points five times, while getting blown out as a short road favorite against previously winless Kent two weeks ago. The only positive for Army is its running game, which averages 319 yards/game, as the Black Knights have outgained six of their seven opponents on the ground.

Air Force has won four of five, but failed to cover in a 35-31 home victory against New Mexico as seven-point favorites in its previous contest. The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in all three road games, while their lone victory on the highway came against Georgia State, who has won just one game this season. Air Force has dominated this series over the years, grabbing seven of the past eight meetings with Army.

Iowa State (+16½) vs. Oklahoma

The Cyclones are just 2-5 on the season, but ISU has managed a 3-1-1 ATS record as a double-digit underdog. Iowa State’s defense has been ripped up, giving up at least 30 points in six of seven games, including a 48-spot to Texas two weeks ago in a three-point road loss. It will be tough sledding for the ‘Clones on Saturday, as ISU has scored more than 10 points against Oklahoma just once in the past nine meetings, while losing all nine of those games.

The Sooners have dropped two of three since a 4-0 start, pretty much ruining any chance at making the college football playoff this season. Oklahoma has failed to cover three straight games, while coming off a 31-30 home setback to Kansas State two weeks ago. Bob Stoops’ team owns a 15-0 SU and 11-4 ATS record off a defeat since 2009, while amazingly facing Iowa State for the fourth straight season when coming off a loss in the previous game.

Florida (+13) vs. Georgia

When these two SEC East rivals hook up in Jacksonville annually, the records are thrown out. It’s hard to ignore Florida’s 3-3 mark, as this Gators’ team has lost 10 of its past 13 games dating back to last season. UF is fresh off an embarrassing homecoming loss to Missouri two weeks ago at the Swamp, 42-13, the third loss in the past four games. Since trouncing Eastern Michigan in the opener, the Gators have compiled a 1-4 ATS record, which includes a one-point win in a pick-em spot at Tennessee.

From 2005 through 2010, the Gators took five of six matchups from Georgia. However, the Bulldogs have bounced back the last three seasons with three straight win over Florida. UGA is riding a five-game winning streak since getting stunned at South Carolina, while topping the 34-point mark in all five SEC games this season.

Kansas (+36) at Baylor

The Jayhawks have been more competitive since the firing of head coach Charlie Weis, covering two of the past three games. Kansas owns a 2-5 record, but lost by 13 at Texas Tech and by 10 to Oklahoma State, as the Jayhawks look to snap a four-game skid to Baylor. The Bears have scored at least 41 points in three of the past four wins over KU, including a 59-14 blowout in Lawrence last season.

Baylor will be in full angry mode after falling at West Virginia two weeks ago, 41-27, while committing 18 penalties. The Bears are playing just their second home game since early September, as Baylor is 4-0-1 ATS in five games as a double-digit favorite this season. Baylor has dominated opponents the last few seasons when laying at least 10 points in Waco, going 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS in this role.

Hawaii (+3) vs. Utah State

Hawaii’s offense has been anemic all season long, scoring 18 points or less in five of eight games. However, the Warriors have covered four of five home contests, including in losses as an underdog to Washington and Oregon State early in the season. Hawaii hasn’t been as fortunate in the ‘dog role of late, posting an 0-3-1 ATS record when receiving points, while losing at home last week to Nevada as three-point ‘dogs.

Utah State has lost three games this season, while winning back-to-back games off each defeat. The Aggies try to keep that trend alive this week, after losing at Colorado State two weeks ago then beating UNLV last Saturday. The Aggies are favored on the road for the first time this season, while putting together a 1-3 ATS record as a favorite. Since 2012, Utah State owns an impressive 5-1 ATS record in the road favorite role, but has lost three of the past four visits to Honolulu.

ACC Report - Week 10
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

The headliner of the ACC schedule will be the Thursday night contest, as defending national champ Florida State, again surrounding by off-the-field controversy, heads to Louisville for a date with the Cardinals. Papa John's Stadium is not an easy place to play, and if the Seminoles aren't on point, it could be a tough weekend. Outside of FSU, no one else has a legitimate shot at the four-team playoff, so FSU is the conference flag carrier.

Duke at Pittsburgh

Duke takes it on the road to the Steel City looking to come home with another win and cover. The Blue Devils, already bowl eligible have posted a 10-2-1 ATS mark in the past 13 games on a grass surface, and they're 15-5-1 ATS in their past 21 games overall. In addition, Duke is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 road games, although they were humbled at Georgia Tech in their last road adventure. Duke is also 9-2 ATS in the past 11 conference tilts. For Pitt, they have struggled with a 1-4-1 ATS mark in the past six, and they're just 2-5 ATS in their past seven games at home. However, they are 10-2 ATS in their past 12 home games against a team with a winning road mark. These two teams played to an exciting 58-55 final last season in Durham, but this year things should be markedly different. The under is 6-0 in Duke's past six ACC games, and 5-1 in their past six overall while going 39-19-2 in their past 60 away from Wallace Wade. The under is 4-1 in Pitt's past five, and 3-1-1 in the past five against a team with a winning overall mark.

Boston College at Virginia Tech

Boston College travels to Blacksburg looking to become bowl eligible and pave the way toward securing an upper-tier bowl in the conference, while Virginia Tech is looking to simply remain alive for a postseason bid. This one will be tough for the Hokies, as Boston College is 7-3 ATS in their past 10 trips to Blacksburg, and 11-5 ATS in the past 16 meetings overall in this series. Neither team has been particularly impressive against the number recently, with BC going 4-11 ATS in their past 15 road tilts, but Virginia Tech going just 1-5 ATS in the past six overall and 0-4 ATS in their past four games at home. The Hokies are 6-2 ATS in their past eight home games against a team with a winning road record, however.

North Carolina at Miami (Fla.)

North Carolina put the skids on its losing streak, winning in dramatic fashion at Virginia last week. Miami finally ended their losing ways on the road at Virginia Tech, thumping the Hokies soundly in their own shack last Thursday. These are two teams feeling good about themselves finally, but only one team will continue that euphoria after Saturday's tilt. The Heels, for all of their troubles on the defensive side of the ball, are still 7-3 ATS in the past 10 conference games, while the Canes are 3-8 ATS in their past 11 ACC battles, and just 5-11 ATS in the past 16 games overall. However, Miami is 11-5 ATS in their past 16 at home, while UNC is 5-12 ATS in their past 17 road games against a team with a winning home record.

North Carolina State at Syracuse

Syracuse returns from a respectable showing, especially defensively, at Clemson last week, albeit a loss. North Carolina State has been difficult to figure, as they played Florida State tight, but then were bombed by Clemson and Boston College. N.C. State is just 2-6 ATS in the past eight ACC games, and 4-9 ATS in their past 13 games overall. They're also an abysmal 4-10-1 ATS in the past 15 away from Raleigh. 'Cuse can hold their heads high after going 4-1 ATS in the past five games, although they're just 1-4 ATS in the past five. However, that cover came last time out at home against Florida State. The better play could be the under, which has hit in six of the past seven road games for the Wolfpack against a team with a losing home record. The under is also 3-1-1 in their past five overall. The under is 5-1-1 in Syracuse's past seven, and 6-2 in their past eight following a straight-up loss.

Virginia at Georgia Tech

Virginia started the season as cover kings, but they have been slipping lately, failing to cover in each of the past two against Duke on the road and UNC at home. In fact, they're just 6-13-2 ATS in their past 21 conference games, and 5-11-1 ATS in their past 17 following an ATS loss. Georgia Tech has been a little sketchy lately, too, starting out 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS, but going just 1-2 SU/ATS over the past three. Their offense has been brilliant, averaging 49.5 points per game over the past two, but defense has been an issue all season, with the Yellow Jackets allowing 24 or more points in five of the past six.

Pac-12 Report - Week 10
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

The Pac-12 rolls on into November, and there are still plenty of teams who can stake a claim to a division title and spot in the league championship game. Some dreams will be dashed this weekend, depending upon how things break. The clear marquee game of the schedule will be in Tempe, where Utah and Arizona State battle for supremacy down south. Who would have ever though that would be the headliner game of any weekend this season?

Washington at Colorado

Washington heads to Boulder looking to score another win and become bowl eligible, while Colorado hopes to avoid another narrow, heartbreaking loss. The Huskies were dropped at home in a soggy game against Arizona State last weekend, their second straight loss in a row. However, they are 10-4 ATS in their past 14 against a team with a losing overall record. They haven't fared well away from Seattle, however, going just 6-13 ATS in their past 19 road games. Colorado nearly pulled off a much-needed win last week against UCLA, but faltered in overtime. It was their second OT battle in four weeks, and both games ended in similar disappointment. Colorado is a respectable 4-2 ATS over its past six games, and the over has connected in four straight for the Buffs.

Southern California at Washington State

The Trojans head to the Palouse looking to take out some aggressions after losing a heartbreaker at Rice-Eccles last weekend in Utah. USC is 5-2 ATS in its past seven trips to Pullman, and the road team has covered each of the past four meetings in this series, including Washington State's stunning 10-7 win at the Coliseum last year. Despite that low-scoring game, the over is 10-4 in the past 14 meetings in this series, including a perfect 7-0 in the past seven at Washington State. The over is 34-16-1 in the past 51 for the Cougs at home, while the over is 4-0 in USC's past four road games against a team with a losing home record.

Stanford at Oregon

This game has lost some of its luster due to Stanford's rare three-loss season to date, but it is still very important. Plus, Oregon can ill-afford to look past the defensive-minded Cardinal. The Cardinal finally saw the over cash for the first time in seven games last weekend. Now, they need to work on covering. They're 0-4 ATS in their past four road games, and just 2-5 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record. However, Stanford is 26-12-1 ATS in their past 39 Pac-12 battles. However, that type of dominance seems so long ago given the difficulties of the current season. Oregon is just 2-5 ATS in its past seven at Autzen Stadium, but they are 5-2 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record. The dog has covered five of the past six in this series.

California at Oregon State

After an impressive start to the season which saw California as a division leader briefly, the Bears have fallen on hard times. Cal has dropped three straight, and they're just 1-2 ATS during the span. Oregon State has had an equally rough go of it lately, starting out 3-0 SU, but going just 1-3 SU/ATS over the past four outings, including a 38-14 whitewashing from Stanford in Palo Alto last weekend. Cal is just 7-18 ATS in the past 25 overall, and 5-13 ATS in their past 18 against a team with a winning overall mark. In addition, Cal is just 1-6 ATS in the past seven with Oregon State, and the favorite has connected in four straight in the series.

Arizona at UCLA

This is essentially an elimination game for the loser in the Pac-12 South Division, especially for UCLA. Neither team has been particularly attractive against the number lately, with Arizona going 1-4 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning record, and 0-4 ATS in their past four on grass. Their lone cover against a winning team was that upset at Oregon as a 21-point favorite three weeks ago. UCLA has posted an 0-4 ATS mark in their past four Pac-12 games, and they're just 1-4 ATS in the past five home games, while managing only one cover in five tries against a team with a winning record. The favorite has cashed in six of the past seven in this series, and the Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in the past seven overall. However, the home team is also 8-3 ATS in the past 11 meetings.

Utah at Arizona State

The game of the weekend, and who could have forseen this at the start of the season, will be the late-night game. Utah kept their conference title hopes alive with a stunning last-season win over USC last weekend. Arizona State fought through the raindrops to record an impressive road win at Washington last week. The Utes are on fire against the number, going 6-1 ATS in the past seven overall, including a 6-0 ATS mark in their past six against a team with an overall winning mark. Arizona State started out 1-3 ATS in their first four, but they're 3-0 ATS in the past three games. Their 62-27 home loss to UCLA is looking like quite the anomaly, but given the fact Utah won at UCLA, the Utes look mighty attractive getting almost a touchdown in this game.

Big Ten Report - Week 10
By ASAWins.com

GAME OF THE WEEK

Ohio State (-28.5) vs. Illinois

Nothing came easy for the Buckeyes against Penn State in Happy Valley last week. Quarterback J.T. Barrett came back down to earth a bit after a torrid four game stretch (20 total TD, 1 INT) to complete just 12-of-19 passes for 74 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT. Overall the Bucks notched just 293 total yards and 17 points in regulation. They gave up a 10-point second half lead as PSU scored a late field goal to tie it at 17-17 and send the game to overtime. Barrett scored two rushing touchdowns in overtime and the defense held to allow OSU to escape with a 31-24 victory. The Buckeyes 'D' limited the Nittany Lions to just 240 total yards, including just 16 rush yards on 31 carries (0.5 YPC). PSU QB Hackenberg completed 31-of-49 passes for a meager 224 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT. Credit the Bucks for coming away with a win in Happy Valley in a hectic atmosphere when they didn't get stellar play from the offensive side. Barrett will need to clean up his act before OSU travels to Michigan State in two weeks in the conferences most important game of the season. Barrett and Co. get a chance to get right against the Illini this weekend. Illinois snapped a three-game losing streak with a quality win over Minnesota last week. They were outgained by 148 yards, but the defense made a few key plays - including a game-winning fumble return for TD with six minutes remaining - and QB Riley O'Toole played mistake-free football, leading the Illini to an upset. Illinois continues to struggle running the football. They rank second to last in the B1G in rush offense with just 106.5 YPG on 3.6 YPC. QB O'Toole is off of a nice performance, but he'll have tougher sledding against this OSU pass defense that has surrendered just eight passing touchdowns this year. He'll need some help from RB Ferguson and this rushing attack if the Illini want any chance of the upset. Ohio State is 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings with Illinois, winning by an average of 19.3 PPG over that span. Last year OSU won 60-35 in Champaign behind 441 rush yards and five rush TD. Ohio State is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 games as a home favorite of 20 points or more. Illinois is just 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games.

The REST

Nebraska (-23.5) vs. Purdue

It was a one-man show in Nebraska's 42-24 win over Rutgers last week as RB Ameer Abdullah set the single-game school record for all-purpose yards with 341. Most of it came on the ground as he notched 225 rush yards and three scores on just 19 carries. Defensively the Huskers limited Rutgers' scoring chances early en route to a 35-10 3rd quarter lead, and it helped that the Scarlet Knights were without starting QB Gary Nova for much of the 2nd half, who exited the game with a leg injury. Rutgers managed just 348 yards and 15 first downs against this Nebraska defense. The Huskers can't afford to sleep on this Purdue squad that has shown great improvement in 2014 and is coming off of a bye. Quarterback Austin Appelby has revitalized this offense that was downright putrid in 2013. He has led Purdue to three straight games of 30+ points, two of which came against the stout defenses of Michigan State and Minnesota. The Boilers took an 11-point lead into halftime against the Gophers and led by nine points late in the 3rd quarter before Minny scored the final 10 points to notch the 39-38 victory two weeks ago. Appleby threw three touchdown passes and the Boilers rushed for 298 yards on 8.5 YPC. Purdue has now covered six of eight games this season, including four of five as the underdog. Despite the obvious improvement, it’ll be tough for the Boilers to become bowl eligible as they need to win three of the remaining four games against Nebraska, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Indiana. But the arrow is definitely pointing up for Purdue as they'll try to play spoiler for some of the big boys in the B1G. Purdue has covered its last three as an underdog of 20 points or more, including twice this season. Nebraska is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 as a favorite of 20 points or more. The Huskers won last year's meeting in Purdue, 44-7, behind 251 rush yards and 5 rush TD.

Wisconsin (NL) at Rutgers

**Rutgers QB Nova remains questionable for this matchup and the line for this game has not yet been released.

The Badgers are off of an absolutely dominating performance against B1G newcomer Rutgers. They had +352 yards and +15 first downs in the 52-7 blowout win. QB Joel Stave appears to have rid himself of the yips as he was efficient in tossing for 155 yards and 2 TD and 0 INT. Melvin Gordon is on an absolute tear. He has averaged 198 rushing yards per game on 8.1 YPC with 15 TD over the last five games. It's a more impressive feat considering that opposing defenses have focused their gameplan on stopping him and they still can't slow him down. Wisconsin is now third nationally in rushing and have rushed for 250+ yards in six of seven games. One of the most impressive aspects of this team has been its defensive prowess. The Badgers are 1st in the B1G in scoring defense (16.1 PPG allowed), 1st in total defense (270 YPG allowed), 1st in pass defense (49.4%, 163 YPG allowed), and 3rd in rush defense (106.7 YPG, 3.1 YPC allowed). With that dominating rushing attack and a statistically elite defense, the Badgers will be a tough out the rest of the way and could be the B1G West's representative in the title game. Rutgers' QB Gary Nova went down with a leg injury just before halftime in the loss to Nebraska. He remains questionable and if he can't go it'll be backup QB Laviano making the start. Laviano isn't nearly as good of a passer as Nova, but he brings a dual-threat capability to the position (5 rushed for 54 yards last week). Whoever starts at quarterback will have the difficult task of moving the football against this Wisconsin defense. Defensively the Scarlet Knights have allowed 616 rush yards (7.1 YPC) and 8 rush TD the last two weeks. That's not good news with Melvin Gordon coming to town. They aren't much better against the pass, surrendering a B1G-high 7.8 yards per completion on 60.8% completions. Wisconsin has failed to cover four straight road games and is just 2-8 ATS in the last 10 overall. Rutgers is just 3-7 ATS in the last 10 games following a SU loss, but 4-1 ATS in the last five vs. a team with a winning record.

Iowa (-4) vs. Northwestern

At 5-2 overall and 2-1 in the Big Ten, the Hawkeyes still control their own fate in the B1G West with games remaining against Minnesota, Nebraska, and Wisconsin; but there's still much to be fixed on this team after a troubling loss to Maryland. The good news is that the Hawks have had a bye week to fix their issues before the meat of their schedule truly hits. In its last game, Iowa had two quick touchdowns at Maryland and appeared to be in great position to pull off the upset – and then Maryland scored 38 of the next 45 points. Iowa QB Rudock threw for 317 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT, but he completed just 32-of-56 passes (57%) and the INT he threw was returned for a Maryland touchdown. Rudock has been forced to throw it more than he should because Iowa has trouble mustering any sort of rushing threat (90th in rush YPG). As is the case with a number of other Big Ten squads this year, a stout defense will only carry this Iowa team so far before the offense needs to pick up some slack. Northwestern comes to town this week needing a win of its own. The Wildcats are a streaky team as evidenced by a two-game losing streak to start the season, followed by a three-game winning streak, followed by the current two-game losing streak. Their most recent loss - two weeks ago - was to Nebraska. They were leading at halftime against the Huskers before Nebraska scored the final 24 points in the game. The Wildcats will need to figure out how to add a little punch to this offense moving forward. QB Siemian has just four TD passes this season and this rushing attack is ranked 105th nationally. They have yet to reach the 30-point mark in a game and have been held to 20 points or fewer in three consecutive league games. The defense is good enough to keep Northwestern competitive against most opponents, but that will go unnoticed as long as this offensive ineptitude continues. Iowa hosted last year's meeting and won by seven points in overtime, but Northwestern has enjoyed success when playing the Hawkeyes. They've won six of the last nine straight up, including three of five visiting Iowa City. Northwestern is 0-6 ATS in the last six games following a loss and just 3-9 ATS in the last 12 B1G games. Iowa has failed to cover five of the last six home games.

Penn State (-3) vs. Maryland

Penn State has now dropped three straight games since starting the season 4-0. Last week was a disheartening overtime loss at home to highly ranked Ohio State. The Nittany Lions fought back from a 10-point deficit to tie the game with nine seconds remaining, but ultimately fell short in overtime. It was another subpar day offensively for the Nittany Lions, who notched just 240 total yards. Granted, it was against a swarming OSU defense, but the offensive ineptitude is an unnerving trend for this team. PSU's offense has managed just 120 rush yards on 91 carries for a measly 1.3 YPC during its three-game losing streak. And Hackenberg has been unable to pick up the rushing game slack, as he's completing just 58% with 2 TD and 4 INT during the skid. Defensively you won't see many better units in the B1G. The Nittany Lions are 2nd in the conference in scoring defense and 1st in rush defense - surrendering just 17.4 PPG and 83.4 rush YPG on 2.4 YPC. PSU plays at home again on Saturday to host the Terrapins. There aren't too many positives to take away from Maryland's performance at Wisconsin. The Terps had just 175 total yards and 10 first downs in the 52-7 loss. They managed just 46 rush yards on 28 carries (1.6 YPC) and QB Brown was just 13-of-29 for 129 yards and 1 TD (that came with 52 seconds remaining). The defensive front was dominated by Wisconsin's offensive line as the Terps were gashed for 311 rush yards and five rush TD on 6.3 YPC. This was the kind of defeat that can affect a team for weeks and make coaches and players want to start from scratch. Maryland is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games following a SU loss but 4-1 ATS in the last five as a road 'dog of fewer than seven points.

Michigan (-7.5) vs. Indiana

The Wolverines had another hapless showing against Michigan State last week. The Wolves were outgained by 260 yards, had just 61 rush yards on 2.3 YPC, and turned the ball over three times. Michigan is now an FBS-worst -14 in turnover ratio, and QB Gardner is a huge reason for that. Gardner has just 3 TD and 10 INT in Michigan's last seven games. Gardner's inability to keep the ball in Michigan's possession are a big reason why the Wolverines are 118th in total offense and 113th in scoring offense - having not exceeding 24 points in five straight games. If Gardner still can't have a good day against an Indiana defense that has allowed 16 pass TD and just 5 INT, then it'll be time to officially move on from the senior QB. Indiana is off of a bye week after a blowout loss to Michigan State on October 18th. A season-ending injury to starting QB Sudfeld pushed freshman Zander Diamont under center against Michigan State for the first start of his career. It did not go well as he completed just 5-of-15 passes for 11 yards. Somehow, Indiana held a 17-14 lead in the second quarter before Michigan State scored the game’s final 42 points. Other than a stout offensive line that paves the way for star RB Tevin Coleman (132 yards on 15 carries against the Spartans), there isn’t much to like about the direction of this team. What once looked like a promising season in Indiana has now been replaced by concern over whether Indiana will win another game this season. RB Coleman has been a one-man wrecking crew, averaging 170 rush yards per game with 11 rush TD. It won't be easy to rush against this Michigan defensive front that allows just 109 rush YPG (16th nationally), but Indiana needs a strong rushing attack to aid its young QB if it wants any shot at the upset. Michigan has won 18 straight against the Hoosiers and is 10-0 SU at home over that span, winning by 18.7 PPG. That includes a 63-47 win at home over the Hoosiers last year. Indiana is just 4-10 ATS in the last 14 games as a road 'dog of 7 points or more.

Michigan State - Bye

The bye week came at a perfect time for the Spartans. They are off of an emotional victory over in-state rival Michigan and they have a huge showdown with OSU on deck. There aren't many negative things to say about the Spartans right now as they are playing extremely sound football right now. The offense - ranked 13th in yards per game and 5th in points per game - is humming behind QB Cook (17 TD, 5 INT) and RB Langford (100+ rush yards in five straight games). The run defense is surrendering just 95.4 YPG on 3.3 YPC and the pass defense is allowing opposing QB's to complete just 51 percent. They host OSU in the B1G regular season Game of the Year next week. Michigan State is just 2-8 SU & 4-6 ATS in the last 10 meetings with OSU, but they won the most recent meeting in last year's B1G Championship, 34-24.

Minnesota - Bye

Many people expected Minnesota to falter in the conference at some point, but not a lot of pundits expected it to come against Illinois. Minnesota was able to pull off back-to-back close victories over Northwestern and Purdue, but couldn't do it a third straight time against Illinois last week. The lack of a competent passing attack really hurt the Gophers as QB Leidner completed just 12-of-30 passes. The Gophers actually held a three-point lead in the 4th quarter before Illinois returned a Leidner fumble for a TD. The good news is that Minnesota has a bye week to figure out its issues before the meat of its schedule hits (Iowa, OSU, Nebraska, Wisconsin). Next week is the battle for the Floyd of Rosedale trophy against Iowa, which the Hawkeyes have won in back-to-back seasons.

NCAAF Week 10

Rain expected on east coast Saturday. East Carolina is 6-1, with one loss at South Carolina; they've won last five games, last four by 10+ points. Pirates covered only one of last six games when a road favorite. Temple allowed 31+ points in each of its three losses; in four wins, they allowed total of 41 points. Owls are 3-5 in last eight games as a home dog, 2-2 under Rhule. AAC home underdogs are 0-4 vs spread, pending result of the Tulane game Friday.

Home side won last four Northwestern-Iowa games; Wildcats lost in last two visits to Iowa 17-10/41-31. Northwestern allowed 14 or less points in three wins- they're 0-4 when allowing more than 14- they're 14-7 last 21 games as road underdog, 1-1 this year. Iowa won three of its last four games, scoring 76 points in last two; Hawkeyes are 5-10 in last 15 games as home favorite, 1-2 this year. Big 14 home favorites are 8-9 vs spread.

Red flag for Ole Miss; they completed less than half their passes in last two games (28-65); QB Wallace lost his composure in last week's loss at LSU. Rebels lost 11 of last 14 games with Auburn, with average total of 62.4 in last five. Ole Miss is 8-3-1 as home favorite under Freeze, 2-0-1 this year. Auburn allowed 73 points in splitting last two games; they've scored total of only 43 points in two road games; they're 4-0 as underdog under Malzahn.

Missouri whacked Kentucky 33-10/48-17 last two years; Tigers are 1-3 vs spread at home this year, are 13-10 in last 23 games as home favorite (1-2 this year)- they allowed 31-34 points in two losses. Wildcats lost last two games, allowing 86 points, 629 rushing yards after they started 5-1. Kentucky is 5-13 in last 18 games as road dog, but 3-3 with Stoops as coach. Missouri is +6 in turnovers last couple games. SEC home faves are 7-12 in conference play.

Arkansas lost last 16 SEC games (0-12 under Bielema), 6-10 vs spread (5-7); they've covered five of last six games overall, splitting pair of true road games (21-45 at Auburn, 49-28 at Tex Tech). Mississsippi State QB Prescott had foot in boot after win at Kentucky last week. Bulldogs allowed average of 469.7 ypg in last three games- they're 4-0 at home this year (3-1 vs spread) scoring 45.5 ppg. Favorites are 6-1 vs spread in last seven series games- only once in last 17 series games has Miss State beaten Razorbacks by more than 7 points.

Underdogs are 7-4-2 vs spread in last 13 Florida-Georgia tilts; only one of Dawgs' last five series wins was by more than 8 points- they won last three series games, by 3-8-4 points. Florida lost three of last four games, averaging 255.3 ypg-- since '97, Florida is 3-2-1 as underdog vs Georgia. Dawgs are 4-3 as favorite this year, 1-2 when laying double digits- they scored 34+ points in every game this year; only one of their six wins is by less than 13 points (35-32 vs Tennessee).

USC is 2-2 on road this year; four games were decided by total of only 14 points; Trojans allowed 24+ points in last four games overall, won 8 of last 9 games vs Washington State (lost 10-7 at home LY)- they've won last four visits here, with three of four by 30+ points. Coogs are 2-6 and scored 31+ points in four of six losses; they allowed 51 ppg in last three games. Wazzu is 3-4 as home underdog under Leach. Pac-12 home dogs are 8-5 in conference play.

Stanford beat Oregon last two years, 26-20/17-14, running ball for 474 yards; win here in 2012 was Cardinal's first in last six visits to Eugene. Ducks won last three games overall, scoring 48.7 ppg; this is just second time in last 22 games they're single digit favorite. Stanford is 5-3 but only team to score more than 17 points against them was Arizona State- they are 4-0-1 as an underdog under Shaw. Totals in Stanford's three road tilts this season were 33-31-36 points.

Underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in last seven Oklahoma State-Kansas State games; OSU lost four of its last five visits to Little Apple, with three of four losses by 14+ points. Cowboys lost last two games, allowing 42-34 points after starting season 5-1; they're 3-2 as road underdogs since '10. K-State is 12-5 in last 17 games as home favorite, 3-0 this year, winning home games by 30-32-23 points with 20-14 loss to Auburn. Big X home favorites are 4-6 vs spread.

Georgia Tech won four of last five games (3-1-1 vs spread) with all four wins by 10+ points; Virginia lost 56-20/33-21 in last two visits to Tech. Cavaliers are 2-6 vs spread in last eight visits here. ACC home favorites are 8-12 vs spread. Virginia is 4-4 but hasn't allowed anyone to run for more than 155 yards- they're 3-1 as underdogs this year. Four of Tech's last six games were decided by 6 or less points; they're 2-2 as faves this season, 10-6 in last 16 games as home favorite (1-2 this year).

UCLA beat Arizona 31-26/66-10 last two years; Wildcats are 3-3 in last six games as series underdog. Disappointing Bruins are 1-7 vs spread in '14, giving up 30+ points in last four games- they're 6-5 as home faves under Mora, 0-2 this year. Arizona is 6-1, missing FG on last play in its only loss 28-26 to USC; Wildcats atr 7-5 as underdogs under Rodriguez, 2-0 this season. Five of seven Arizona games were decided by 7 points or less. Pac-12 home favorites are 5-8 vs spread in conference play.

Arizona State won last three games with Utah by 21-1-30 points, with +9 turnover ratio in those games; ASU is 9-4 as home favorite in Graham era- this is first time this year they're home favorite. Utes won all three road games this year, winning by 2 at UCLA, in OT at Oregon State. Last four Utah games were decided by 6 or less points. Sun Devils have Notre Dame coming to Tempe next; are they look past this game? Only game Utah lost was as 13-point home favorite to Wazzu (28-27).

Road team won both TCU-West Virginia games; Frogs won 39-38 here in '12, lost 30-27 at home LY. West Virginia gave Baylor first loss here two weeks ago; they've scored 33+ points in last six games, are 2-1 as an underdog this year, 9-8 under Holgorsen. Big X home underdogs are 6-3 vs spread this season. TCU scored 54.8 ppg in last four games, scoring 58 points in only loss (61-58 at Baylor). Horned Frogs are 2-6 in last 8 games as a road favorite, 1-0 this season.

Notes on rest of the card

-- Notre Dame won its last three games with Navy by average score of 48-19; they ran ball for 551 yards last two meetings. Five of last seven ND series wins are by 18+ points.
-- Underdogs covered last three Boston College-Va Tech games; Hokies won four of last five meetings, with three of four wins by 16+ points, but Tech lost four of last six games overall.
-- UCF hammered UConn 62-17 (-24) LY; Huskies are 1-5 vs spread so far this year- their only cover was 31-21 loss to ECU. Home underdogs are 0-5 vs spread in the AAC.
-- Rutgers covered five of last six games, but gave up 56-42 points in last two games, losing by 39-18 points. Wisconsin lost its only true road tilt so far this season, 20-14 at Northwestern.

-- Syracuse ran ball for 362 yards in 24-10 (+6.5) win at NC State LY. Orange lost five of last six games but is 2-1 when favored this year. ACC home favorites are 8-12 vs spread this year.
-- Pitt (-4) won 58-55 at Duke LY, almost blowing 51-28 lead. Panthers threw ball for 428 yards. Duke is 6-1, with only loss 22-10 at Miami-- they covered four of last five games as a road underdog.
-- Maryland won three of four road games this year, but they've allowed 45 ppg in last three games, losing 52-7 last week. Penn State lost its last three games, allowing 29-31 points in last two home games.
-- North Carolina won its last two games by total of six points; they've given up 49.3 ppg in four road games (2-2 as road dog). Miami scored 85 points in its last two games, is 3-0 as a home favorite this season.

-- Appalachian State is 1-4 vs I-A teams, with three of four losses by 20+ points. Georgia State lost its last seven games, giving up average of 50.3 ppg in last three games.
-- Air Force covered 13 of last 17 games with Army, but failed to cover its last five games as a road favorite. Army lost its last two games by 20, 22 points while allowing 40 ppg.
-- Central Michigan won four of last five games with Eastern Michigan, with three of four wins by 32+ points; Chippewas are 5-2 in last seven trips to Ypsilanti, with three wins by 13 or less points.
-- Texas won its last five games with Texas Tech, but three of five were by 10 or less points; Underdogs are 6-2 vs spread in Longhorns' last eight visits to Lubbock. Texas lost five of last seven games overall.

-- Nebraska is 3-1 as home favorite this year, with home wins by 48-10-31-18. Purdue covered seven of last ten games as road underdog; they're 2-0 as road dogs this year, scoring 38-31-38 points in last three games.
-- Baylor won its last four games with Kansas by average score of 46-16; Jayhawks lost last two trips to Waco by combined score of 96-21. Bears had last week off after allowing 99 points in splitting last two games.
-- Western Michigan won last three games with Miami by 3-22-3 points; Redhawks covered five of six as an underdog this year. Broncos covered their last seven games, winning last three by 4-12-21 points.
-- Western Kentucky lost three of four road games despite scoring 38.8 ppg in the four games; Hilltoppers allowed 278+ rushing yards in four of last five games. C-USA home favorites are 8-10 vs spread.

-- Texas A&M switches to freshman QB Allen after losing last three in a row by combined score of 142-51. La-Monroe is 0-6 vs spread in its last six games, scoring 14-14-18 points in last three games.
-- BYU lost its last four games, allowing 40.8 ppg; they're 0-6 vs spread in last six games. C-USA non-conference underdogs are 19-11 vs spread this year, 6-1 at home.
-- South Carolina won three of last four games vs Tennessee, with last two decided by total of 5 points; Vols lost last three visits to Columbia by 3-14-21 points- they're 4-2 as series dog over last 18 years.
-- Oklahoma won last ten games with Iowa State, covering seven of last nine; Sooners had 405 rushing yards in LY's game- they won last four in Ames, covering three, all of which were by 18+ points.

-- Michigan lost four of last five games, covered once in last six; maybe AD quitting Friday will make crowd little less negative. Wolverines won last 11 games vs Indiana, which is 3-3 vs spread in last sixvisits here.
-- Idaho covered four of five as an underdog this year, scoring 27.7 ppg in last three games; underdogs covered their last five games vs Arkansas State, which scored 92 points in last two games, both on road.
-- UL-Lafayette won last three games, scoring 41 ppg after its 1-3 start; Rajin' Cajuns lost 30-8 at South Alabama LY after beating Jaguars 52-30 here in '12. USA won its last four games, allowing 17.8 ppg.
-- Vanderbilt is 2-6, with wins by total of 4 points and one of them was over a I-AA team; Commodores started four QBs this year. ODU gave up 49.4 ppg in last five games, failing to cover last four.

-- Rice won/covered last four games, allowing 19.8 ppg after an 0-3 start; Owls won last two road games by 18-20 points (Southern Miss/Army). FIU covered five of seven tries as an underdog this season.
-- Washington won its three Pac-12 games vs Colorado by average score of 49-11; Huskies ran ball for 279.7 ypg. Buffs covered five of its last six games, losing last two home games by total of 8 points.
-- Oregon State won six of last seven games vs Cal., with favorites 4-0 vs spread in last four. Cal allowed average of 48.5 ppg in its last six games. Favorites covered Cal's last six visits to Corvallis.
-- San Jose State outgained Colorado State by 182/161 yards in winning last two meetings; they won last three over Rams by by 7-20-7 points. CSU is 7-1, winning last six games; only loss was 37-24 at Boise State.

-- South Florida covered four of last five games; they scored exactly 17 points in each of last four home games. Houston (-18) beat USF 35-23 LY. Cougars are 6-4 in last ten games as a road favorite.
-- Underdogs won last three UAB-FAU games SU; Owls won last three series games, winning 38-35/49-34 in last two played here. FAU allowed 35+ points in last four games. UAB is 2-1 as an underdog this year.
-- Home side lost last four UTEP-Southern Miss games; Eagles won last two visits here, 31-13/56-20. C-USA home favorites are 8-9 vs spread this year. Southern Miss covered four of last six games overall.

-- UNLV won five of last six games vs New Mexico, even though Lobos ran ball for 804 yards in last two games. New Mexico lost last three trips to Vegas by 28-35-7 points. Rebels are 1-6 vs I-A teams this season.
-- Texas State (-13) waxed New Mexico State 66-28 LY, running ball for 446 yards; Bobcats won three of last four games, with all three wins by 5 or less points. Aggies are 1-4-1 vs spread in last six games.
-- Ohio State won last six games vs Illinois (4-2 vs spread); Illini lost its last two visits here 52-22/30-0, but had won SU in three of four visits to Horseshoe before that. Illini scored 27+ in six of eight games this year.

-- Fresno State beat Wyoming 48-10/42-14 last two years; they gained 600 yards against Cowboys LY. Wyoming is 2-2 as road dog this year, losing all four away games, by 34-42-10-14 points.
-- San Diego State won last three games with Nevada by 17-1-7 points; Aztecs won last two games overall, allowing 14-10 points. Wolf Pack lost last two home games, allowing 51-31 points.
-- Utah State beat Hawai'i 47-10/35-31 last two meetings, after going 1-5 in previous six games; Aggies lost three of last four visits here. Hawai'i failed to cover last three games as an underdog.

Armadillosports.com

Stretch Fading Favorites
By Robbie Gainous
Playbook.com

The college football season has reached Week 10 with controversy swirling around the selection process for the lucky four who get invited to the first ever playoff. Did you ever doubt there would be issues we all knew trouble would ensue with a handful of one-loss teams vying for their chance to get into the round of four? We do not envy the selection committee they are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. With Week 10 on deck there is still plenty of football yet to be played so for the sake of the committee members we can only hope the picture gets much clearer in the remaining weeks of the season. Yea right

Before we move on to this weeks College Football System Game of the Week a quick look back to last week as Cajun-Sports won their NCAA Football 6* SEC Platinum Play of the Year on Saturday as LSU defeated Ole Miss 10 to 7 as a four-point home underdog. With that victory Cajun-Sports career record on this play is now 20-5-1 ATS. This week’s college and NFL cards provide a few solid situations be sure to check on Saturday and Sunday for Cajun-Sports Week 10 College and Week 9 NFL Selections.

This week our research looked at conference teams and how they respond late in the season when faced with conference opponents on back-to-back weeks. What we found was interesting in that teams playing on the conference road while coming off two conference road affairs in prior weeks struggled in certain situations.

SYSTEM: From Game 8 on, play AGAINST a conference road/neutral site favorite of 10 or more points off conference road contests in its last two games versus an opponent off scoring less than 49 points in its last game. The record for this system is 11-1 ATS when playing against these double-digit favorites and they fail to cover the spread by an average of 20.54 points per game.

The fact they were playing conference opponents makes for a more intense contest with additional stress added having to play back-to-back games away from home. The combination of these factors produces a solid play against situation when our road team has been installed as double-digit chalk. These late season conference road favorites have found it hard to keep up the level of intensity required in these situations. With all of the system parameters met this weeks Cajun-Sports NCAA Football System Game of the Week calls for a play AGAINST Arkansas State on the road versus Idaho. This week we will take the double-digits and back the Vandals versus the Red Wolves on Saturday knowing the Wolves are 0-2 ATS their last two versus the Vandals and the Wolves qualify as a Stretch Fading Favorite.

Saturday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag

FLORIDA GATORS (3-3) vs. GEORGIA BULLDOGS (6-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Georgia -13, Total: 51

No. 9 Georgia looks to stay on top of the SEC East standings when it takes on a struggling Florida team at Everbank Field in Jacksonville.

The Gators have done well against lesser opponents this year but have not able to contend with some of the tougher competition that they face as part of the toughest conference in college football. They are just 1-4 ATS in SEC play and have surrendered 114 points in three conference defeats. In Florida's last contest on Oct. 18, the school was actually favored by seven points over visiting Missouri, but suffered a 42-13 loss. The defense actually held the Tigers to a meager 119 yards of total offense that day, but turned the ball over six times (two returned for touchdowns), while also allowing Missouri to score 2 TD on special teams.

The Bulldogs have not had quite as tough of a schedule as some of the other teams in their division and are 4-3 ATS so far while taking one SU loss when they were defeated by South Carolina early in the season. They headed to Arkansas as three-point favorites in their last game on Oct. 18 and left with a nice 45-32 victory. They had a 38-6 lead at the half in the contest as they totaled 386 yards of offense for the game and forced four turnovers while not turning the ball over themselves for the fourth time this year.

Georgia has won this neutral-field matchup in each of the past three seasons (2-1 ATS). In 2013, the team escaped with a 23-20 victory, but failed to cover a 3.5-point spread despite a 23-3 halftime lead. Bettors should know that the Gators are 34-17 ATS (67%) after a two-game homestand since 1992 while the Bulldogs are 36-30 ATS (55%) when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the same timeframe. Injuries will not affect Florida in this contest while HB Keith Marshall (ankle) is questionable and HB Todd Gurley (suspension) has been ruled out until mid-November for Georgia.

Florida’s offense has sputtered all season and ranks 76th in FBS scoring (28.7 PPG), 94th in passing (198.5 YPG) and 61st in rushing (169.5 YPG). Freshman QB Treon Harris (263 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT) will be getting the start over Jeff Driskel who had nine interceptions over his past four games. Harris was solid in his last game on Oct. 18, completing 8-of-12 passes for 98 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT while also picking up 26 yards and a score on eight carries. HB Matt Jones (424 rush yards, 3 TD) has been the lead back for the team but has averaged a mere eight attempts over the past two games. WR Demarcus Robinson (524 rec yards, 4 TD) is the one real factor in the passing game and has three performances where he went over the century mark while averaging 15.4 yards per catch. The defense has not been much better, allowing 25.5 PPG to its opponents while actually ranking 12th in the nation in total defense (317.3 YPG). LB Antonio Morrison (52 tackles, 1 INT, 4.5 TFL) and DB Keanu Neal (33 tackles, 3 INT) have been solid as the leaders of this defense.

Georgia has scored many of its 43.4 PPG (9th in nation) with a fierce rushing attack (265.9 YPG, 15th in FBS) while not doing much through the air (171.3 YPG, 112th in nation). QB Hutson Mason (1,022 pass yards, 10 TD, 3 INT) has been extremely efficient with minimal turnovers and has hit on 69.2% of his passes for a low 7.0 YPA. He is not much of a runner, but has been able to get in near the end zone, scoring four times with his legs. With HB Todd Gurley suspended, HB Nick Chubb (569 rush yards, 5 TD) has stepped up in the past two games with 345 rushing yards on 68 attempts (5.1 YPC) while getting into the end zone three times. WRs Chris Conley (336 rec yards, 3 TD) and Michael Bennett (231 rec yards, 4 TD) have been the top targets through the air with Conley averaging an impressive 17.7 yards per catch. While their offense has been impressive, their defense has done just as well, allowing 20.0 PPG to their opposition (19th in FBS) behind the huge efforts of LBs Amarlo Herrera (57 tackles, 3 sacks) and Ramik Wilson (55 tackles, 5.5 TFL).

TCU HORNED FROGS (6-1) at WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (6-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: TCU -5.5, Total: 72.5

No. 20 West Virginia looks to continue its surprise start to the season when it hosts No. 10 TCU on Saturday.

Last season, these two schools played an exciting game, with West Virginia recording a 30-27 overtime victory. The Horned Frogs were able to gain nearly 500 yards of offense, but the Mountaineers were able to force four turnovers to help earn the victory. TCU is a different team this season, in large part because of the improved play of QB Trevone Boykin. The Horned Frogs are coming off a game in which they scored 82 points against Texas Tech. TCU is 7-0 ATS when scoring at least 28 points this season, while West Virginia is only 5-14 ATS the past three seasons when giving up at least 28 points.

The Mountaineers were supposed to be down again this season, but the team has been one of the biggest surprises in college football. They have only two losses this season, and they are to Alabama and Oklahoma. Since the loss to the Sooners, WVU is 4-0 SU with 33+ points in each of the four victories. Both teams got good news about star offensive players this week, as both TCU WR Josh Doctson (foot) and WVU RB Rushel Shell (ankle) have been upgraded to probable.

TCU leads the nation in scoring (50.4 PPG), while ranking sixth in FBS passing (360.1 YPG) and 35th in rushing (212.9 YPG). The offense has been tremendous this season, in large part because of the performance from QB Trevone Boykin (2,306 pass yards, 374 rush yards, 24 total TD). He has always had the ability to make plays with his legs, but now he is becoming more consistent throwing the ball. He still does not complete a great percentage of his throws (58.7%), but he has limited the mistakes that have hurt him early in his career, tossing only 3 INT all season. Last week against Texas Tech, he threw for 433 yards and seven touchdowns. RB B.J. Catalon (78 carries, 388 yards, 8 TD) has shown to be a strong rusher out of the backfield, making the read-option very difficult to stop. WRs Josh Doctson (35 catches, 573 yards, 7 TD), Deante Gray (27 catches, 431 yards, 6 TD) and Kolby Listenbee (22 catches, 494 yards, 3 TD) are all capable of taking over the game at the wideout position.

While most teams have one cornerback that can slow down an opponent’s top receiver, very few teams have the secondary depth to stop TCU. Boykin has done a nice job of finding the mismatch and making them pay. The Frogs defense ranks 29th in FBS scoring defense (21.6 PPG allowed), and has shown the ability to make the big play. Paul Dawson (79 tackles, 11 TFL, 3 sacks, 3 FR, 2 INT) is all over the field on defense, and is a guy the quarterback has to know where he is at every play. Dawson helps out in the run, but he can also guard the running back out of the backfield. S Chris Hackett (51 tackles, 3 INT, 1.5 TFL) is a very important guy in this game, as he is going to be matched up against one of the best receivers in the country in Kevin White.

West Virginia is ninth in the nation in passing this year (346.1 YPG), 23rd in scoring (36.9 PPG) and 51st in rushing (180.9 YPG). Quarterback Clint Trickett (2,763 pass yards, 17 TD, 5 INT) has become a star in the Big 12, and is the biggest reason why the Mountaineers are off to such a terrific start. His favorite target is WR Kevin White (72 catches, 1,047 yards, 8 TD, who is a threat all over the field. He not only makes tough catches over the middle, but has the speed to catch the deep route on the outside. With the presence of WR Mario Alford (45 catches, 600 yards, 6 TD), defenses are not able to double-team White on the outside. While the passing game gets a lot of the talk, the ground game has been solid as well this year. RBs Rushel Shell (114 carries, 503 yards, 6 TD) and Wendell Smallwood (100 carries, 476 yards, 1 TD) have both done a nice job of forcing defenses to keep an extra guy in the box to stop the run. They also are very good when it comes to pass blocking, allowing Trickett more time to find an open receiver.

The defense ranks 55th in the nation in scoring defense (25.0 PPG), but it is much improved compared to the past two seasons. LB Nick Kwiatkoski (62 tackles, 9 TFL, 2 PD) is the leading tackler on the team, making his presence felt in the backfield. The best player on the unit is S Karl Joseph (60 tackles, 2 TFL), who has been a star from day one of his freshman year, and is now not having to make as many tackles as he did in the previous two seasons. This has allowed him to roam around a little bit more, using his speed to make quarterbacks hesitant to take a risk.

STANFORD CARDINAL (5-3) at OREGON DUCKS (7-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Oregon -7.5, Total: 54.4

No. 5 Oregon looks for some revenge on Saturday night when it hosts an unranked Stanford team that has had the upper hand in this series recently.

Last year, the Cardinal picked up a home victory against the Ducks, winning, 26-20. The biggest reason why Stanford was able to get the victory was because it dominated time of possession (42:34) by carrying the football 66 times for 274 yards, keeping Oregon's terrific offense on the sidelines. The Cardinal also won their last trip to Eugene in 2012 keeping the ball for 37:05 in a 17-14 victory. Stanford (4-4 ATS) has alternated wins and losses in each of its past five games, bouncing back from a 26-10 loss at Arizona State on Oct. 18 with a convincing 38-14 victory over Oregon State last week. The defense, which has played tremendous all season long, dominated Beavers star QB Sean Mannion, allowing him to complete only 14-of-30 passes for 122 yards (4.1 YPA).

For the Cardinal, who are 6-0 ATS as an underdog under head coach David Shaw, to pick up a third straight win in this series, the defense will once again have to be on top of its game. Since their lone season loss to Arizona, the Ducks (4-4 ATS) offense has been tremendous during a three-game win streak (SU and ATS) with 48.7 PPG and 537 total YPG broken down nicely into 291 passing YPG and 247 rushing YPG. Oregon scored 56 points against California last week, and is 7-0 ATS in the past two seasons after scoring at least 50 points, winning these games by a margin of 52 to 17. Stanford has a couple of defensive injury concerns with DB Ra'Chard Pippens (undisclosed) and DL David Parry (leg) both considered questionable, while Oregon's only recent injury is a WR Keanon Lowe, who is questionable with a bad hamstring.

Stanford has struggled on offense this season, ranking 91st in the nation in scoring (25.8 PPG), 93rd in rushing (141.3 YPG) and 63rd in passing (241.5 YPG). The Cardinal have been able to defeat the Ducks the past two games because of their ability to rush the ball, averaging 237 rushing yards per game against Oregon in the past two seasons. However, the offense has really struggled to run the ball, putting more of the pressure on QB Kevin Hogan (1,814 pass yards, 13 TD and 6 INT). Hogan is at his best when the Cardinal are running the ball, allowing him to use the play-action fake. RB Remound Wright (69 carries, 326 yards, 2 TD) and Barry Sanders (40 carries, 290 yards, 7.3 YPC) will have to play much better than they have this season to help control the time of possession. If the Cardinal are able to establish the running game, that could open up big plays for speedy WR Ty Montgomery (49 catches, 514 yards, 3 TD). Montgomery is one of the elite receivers in the country, as his speed allows him to get behind the defense.

While the offense has not been as good as it has in the past, the defense has continued to be one of the best in the country. The unit currently ranks second in the nation in points allowed (12.5 PPG allowed) and has given up a meager 251 total YPG (3.7 yards per play). Linebackers Blake Martinez (60 tackles, 5 TFL, 3.5 sacks) and A.J. Tarpley (53 tackles, 4 TFL, 2 sacks) are one of the best duos in the country, as they roam all over the field. LB Peter Kalambayi (21 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 5.5 sacks) does a great job of getting after the quarterback. The Cardinal do a tremendous job of tacking and not allowing the big plays to open up. That will once again be a key, as the Ducks have the playmakers to score from anywhere on the field.

Entering Saturday’s game, the Ducks ranks fifth in FBS scoring (45.5 PPG), 16th in passing (311.8 YPG) and 28th in rushing (223.1 YPG). The offense starts with one guy, and that is QB Marcus Mariota (2,283 pass yards, 235 rush yards, 29 total TD). What separates Mariota is how well he does at limiting mistakes (1 INT all season), while also completing nearly 69 percent of his passes. Joining Mariota in the backfield is freshman RB Royce Freeman (136 carries, 748 yards, 13 TD). At 230 pounds, Freeman is a great combination of size and speed, making him very difficult to bring down. However, it is not a one-man show, as RB Thomas Tyner (66 carries, 279 yards, 1 TD) and WR Byron Marshall (37 carries, 306 yards, 1 TD) both have the ability to break off long gainers. Marshall is also the leading receiver on the team (38 catches, 521 yards, 4 TD), while WR Devon Allen (27 catches, 487 yards, 6 TD) is a speedster who can take it the distance on any given night. These two will be counted upon more, as WR Keanon Lowe (17 catches, 266 yards, 4 TD) may be out due to a hamstring injury.

The Ducks defense enters the game ranked 61st in the country in points allowed (25.9 PPG) and has surrendered 462 total YPG. DB Erick Dargan (53 tackles, 7 PD, 4 INT) is a star in the secondary, as he does a nice job of stopping both the run and pass. He will play a big role in this game, as he will be seeing a lot of time covering Montgomery. LB Derrick Malone (50 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1 fumble recovery) is key in stopping the run, and will have to do that against a Stanford team that is struggling to rush the football.

AUBURN TIGERS (6-1) at OLE MISS REBELS (7-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Ole Miss -1.5, Total: 51

In another huge SEC matchup with playoff implications, No. 4 Auburn heads to Oxford on Saturday to take on No. 7 Ole Miss.

It’s been another big year for SEC teams, and it has been no different for the Tigers, as they have been putting up some gaudy offensive numbers despite going a mere 3-4 ATS. They have faced three ranked opponents thus far and were victors against both Kansas State (20-14) and LSU (41-7) while taking a 38-23 loss against No. 1 Mississippi State as three-point favorites in their lone defeat. Last week, they played in a barnburner with South Carolina and narrowly avoided a big upset as an 18-point favorite. Auburn secured a 42-35 victory thanks to three interceptions while the offense ran for an amazing 395 yards on 8.4 YPC. Ole Miss has surprised many with its success this season, defeating its first seven opponents both SU and ATS while having an average margin of victory of 24.9 PPG. The Rebels' flawless season ended last week though, as they fell at LSU by a score of 10-7. Despite the low score, these two teams actually combined for some big yardage (719 total yards). While the Rebels forced four turnovers in Baton Rouge, they were unable to convert when it mattered, as QB Bo Wallace threw a pass that was picked off at the 1-yard line with just nine seconds left on the clock.

The home team has won SU in six of the past seven meetings between these programs while being 5-2 ATS. Auburn is 5-2 SU in that time and was able to pull out a solid 30-22 victory as a two-point underdog last season. The Tigers dominated in the rushing game with 282 yards (5.9 YPC) as they held off a big passing attack (340 yards) behind the arm of Wallace in the contest. Some trends that bettors should know include that Auburn is a solid 10-1 ATS when coming off one or more straight Overs in the past two seasons while Ole Miss is 6-0 ATS when playing on turf this year. On the injury front, the Tigers have no significant players missing from their lineup, but the Rebels defense could be thin with DB Cody Prewitt (undisclosed) and DL Robert Nkemdiche (undisclosed) listed as questionable while LB Denzel Nkemdiche (ankle) is out for the year.

Auburn has been one of the most explosive offensive teams in the nation all season long, scoring the 15th-most points (39.3 PPG) behind an amazing ground game (281 rush YPG) which ranks 10th in the nation. QB Nick Marshall (1,103 pass yards, 11 TD, 3 INT) has done well with ball control while throwing the pigskin more than 19 times in just three of his seven games. The real threat comes from his legs, as he has gone for 581 yards (6.8 YPC) and seven touchdowns on the ground while getting over the century mark four different times. He is not the only threat in this big running offense as HB Cameron Artis-Payne (831 rush yards, 6 TD) has had at least 20 carries in 5-of-7 games while cracking 100 yards five times. He also has eight catches for 99 yards. The big target through the air is WR D’haquille Williams (527 rec yards, 5 TD) who is the only wideout on the team with more than 15 receptions (34) and has averaged a solid 15.5 yards per catch while having three big performances of 100 yards or more. Their defense also ranks fairly high (25th in nation) while allowing 20.7 PPG, but has given up a robust 36.5 PPG to their past two SEC opponents. DB Jonathan Ford (48 tackles, 2 INT) and LB Cassanova McKinzy (46 tackles, 6.5 TFL) hope they can improve their scoring defense on Saturday afternoon.

Ole Miss plays a much different offensive game than its opponent, as it does most of its work through the air (268.8 YPG, 37th in FBS) while still being solid in the run game (149.5 YPG, 83rd in nation) and has scored 31.9 PPG (50th in FBS). QB Bo Wallace (2,075 pass yards, 18 Ts, 7 INT) has been the key component on this side of the ball and had gone three consecutive games without throwing a pick before his late interception at LSU. He has also had at least 11 rushing attempts in each of the past four games while averaging 38.8 YPG running in that time with two scores. Joining him in the backfield will be HB Jaylen Walton (376 rush yards, 4 TD) who has not run the ball more than 12 times or for more than 90 yards in any one game this season, but has averaged 5.3 YPC plus 13 catches for 160 yards and 2 TD. WR Laquon Treadwell (529 rec yards, 4 TD) leads the team with 38 receptions while both 6-foot-1 WR Vince Sanders (431 rec yards, 4 TD) and 6-foot-3 WR Cody Core (390 rec yards, 5 TD) are big red-zone targets. The defense for the Rebels ranks as the best in the conference while allowing just 10.5 PPG to their opponents behind the strong play of DB Senquez Golson (23 tackles, 8 INT), DB Tony Connor (47 tackles, 1 INT, 5.5 TFL) and DE Marquis Haynes (20 tackles, 6.5 sacks).

Check out more College Football Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!

College Football Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 10
By Covers.com

(19) East Carolina Pirates at Temple Owls (+7.5)

*With the release of the College Football Playoff Poll, the media is in a tizzy over the rankings, but not Ruffin McNeill. "I'm not the smartest guy in the world, but I am informed. We didn't play a game and moved up," the Pirates coach said. "We don't coach for rankings. I've never coached that way and I'm not going to start now."

In their loss to UCF, the Owls were shutout in the first quarter for the first time since Nov. 2013. Temple had outscored opponents 59-27 before giving up 17 to the Knights.

(24) Duke Blue Devils at Pittsburgh Panthers (-3.5)

The Blue Devils are exceeding preseason expectations thanks to their stingy defense. Duke has only surrendered 15.1 ppg, which is the fifth-best mark in the country, while only allowing 20-plus points twice this year.

With their seven fumbles (six lost) against Georgia Tech one week ago, the Pitt Panthers now average the fifth-most fumbles per game in the nation at 2.3. Eastern Michigan leads with 2.7 fumbles per game.

(20) Oklahoma Sooners at Iowa State Cyclones (+16.5)

The Sooners have been faltering, but they may be getting a boost with the return of RB Keith Ford. "All signs are towards" the sophomore returning this week, according to offensive coordinator Josh Heupel.

A dynamic piece of the Cyclones offense, Jarvis West, they have been missing may be back for good. The past three games have seen the senior ineffective due to injuries, but he has been running full speed this week.

Florida Gators at (8) Georgia Bulldogs (-12.5)

Florida Gators head coach Will Muschamp has accepted the criticism the fans are piling on recently. Calls to be fired have led Muschamp to take a "bunker mentality" heading into the meeting with Georgia. The Gators have almost become instant-fade material as well, going just 2-4 ATS this season.

The NCAA stated that Georgia running back Todd Gurley must sit out at least two more games for accepting over $3,000 from signing memorabilia. The Bulldogs have played two games without the services of the star RB and are 2-0 SU and ATS in those contests.

Purdue Boilermakers at (16) Nebraska Cornhuskers (-23.5)

The Boilermakers look to score at least 31 points for the fourth-straight week, which would be the first time since 2007 and the first time since 1980 that they have done so in four consecutive Big Ten games.

Huskers QB Tommy Armstrong Jr. saw limited action against Purdue last season, but only completed 33 percent of his passes and threw three interceptions. "I know they threw a lot at me. There were a lot of things that I anticipated seeing, but I didn't see them at all," the senior said.

(10) TCU Horned Frogs at (22) West Virginia Mountaineers (+5.5)

It is Week 10 and this will be TCU's first game outside of its home state of Texas. The Horned Frogs went 2-2 ATS outside of the Lone Star State last season.

West Virginia running back Rushel Shell is expected to play against TCU. Shell injured his ankle against Baylor on Oct. 18. The sophomore has 503 yards on 114 carries including six touchdowns on the season.

Kansas Jayhawks at (12) Baylor Bears (-35.5)

It certainly hasn't been a banner season for the Jayhawks, but if they've had any value in the betting community, it's certainly with the Under. The Jayhawks begin the season with a 34-28 win against SE Missouri State. Not only was it their lone SU win this season, but it was their only Over. Kansas has cashed in on six-straight Under bets heading into its meeting with Baylor.

Baylor continues to win despite a lack of focus. The Bears are the most highly-penalized team in the country with an average of 11 flags thrown for 106.8 yards per game (almost 20 yards more than the next worst team).

(4) Auburn Tigers at (9) Ole Miss Rebels (-2.5)

It is easy to see why Auburn is the defending SEC Champion. In the past 46 quarters against fellow SEC opponents, the Tigers have scored an offensive touchdown in 42 of them (91 percent).

Hugh Freeze knew what went wrong for Ole Miss in their loss to LSU. "Our demeanor was a bit different in that environment," the coach said about playing at Tigers Stadium. "We let things get to us that have not bothered us earlier in the season. It seemed to rattle us a little bit."

Arkansas Razorbacks at (1) Mississippi State Bulldogs (-10.5)

Arkansas has struggled in recent meetings at Mississippi State. The Razorback are just 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings there, with their last cover coming as a 3-point favorite in 2010.

Despite Dak Prescott throwing three of his five interceptions over the past two weeks, Dan Mullen is not affected. "I evaluate them all differently. He had pressure in his face with the one on Saturday," the coach says. "The one in the end zone against Auburn I did not mind because he had one-on-one coverage."

Stanford Cardinal at (6) Oregon Ducks (-8)

Stanford’s three losses have all come against teams ranked among the Top 20. The Cardinal are 10-4 in their past 14 games against teams ranked in the AP Top 25, and were 6-1 in such games in 2013.

If there's one stat, that is not focused solely Marcus Mariota, that points to the Ducks' success it's the giveaway numbers. Oregon is averaging 0.6 giveaways per game, which ties them with Georgia for the best in the nation.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at (11) Kansas State Wildcats (-15)

To say the Oklahoma State Cowboys have struggled putting points on the board would be an understatement. In the last 10 quarters of football (dating back to halftime versus Kansas), the Cowboys have scored just 26 points.

Kansas State is one of the most disciplined teams in the country when it comes to penalties. The Wildcats rank fourth in the nation with just 3.7 penalties per game. When asked why his teams are so good avoiding penalties, coach Bill Snyder said "Well, if they get penalized, we shoot ‘em."

(7) Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Navy Midshipmen (+14)

The Fighting Irish are certainly having no problems scoring against Navy. Notre Dame has not had to punt in five of its last nine meetings with the Middies.

As expected, Navy's triple-option offense has been putting up amazing rushing numbers this season. Through the first eight games, Navy is averaging 353.3 rushing yards per game, which is the third highest in the country.

Illinois Fighting Illini at (13) Ohio State Buckeyes (-28.5)

The Fighting Illini are one of only three teams in the country that have yet to stop an opponent from scoring once they've entered the red zone.

Ohio State will try to tie its Big Ten record for consecutive regular season conference victories when the No. 13 Buckeyes host Illinois Saturday night. Ohio State has won 19 straight Big Ten games, one shy of the conference record set by the program from 2005-07.

(15) Arizona Wildcats at (25) UCLA Bruins (-6.5)

Defense has vaulted the Wildcats to a different level in the Pac-12. The opportunistic defense has 13 sacks and forced eight turnovers in its past four games against conference opponents.

Jim Mora is certainly not buying into the notion that UCLA is not a national championship contender after two close contests. "As much gloom and doom as there is out there, I would challenge anyone to go find a UCLA team in the history of UCLA that has done what this group has done in two and a half years," the coach said. "Let's all remember the last game that UCLA played before this whole thing started was a 50-to-nothing (butt)-kicking."

(18) Utah Utes at (14) Arizona State Sun Devils (-5.5)

Despite Utah's revolving door at quarterback, the defense has made sure the team is in games early. The Utes are only allowing 1.7 point per game in the first quarter, which is good for the second-fewest points in the first stanza in the nation.

Coach Todd Graham is placing a lot of pressure on the Sun Devils leading into this weeks game. "I look at it as a single-elimination tournament,” Graham told reporters. “You cannot afford to lose, especially South Division games."

Auburn at Ole Miss
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

After losing for the first time this season at LSU last week in heartbreaking fashion, Ole Miss returns home to take on Auburn in a battle of one-loss teams who were both in the top four of the College Football Playoff selection committee's first rankings released this past Tuesday.

In other words, the losses on each team's resume are irrelevant because Saturday's winner in Oxford will make the playoffs by winning out.

As of late Friday afternoon, my books had Ole Miss (7-1 straight up, 6-1-1 against the spread) listed as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 51.

Auburn (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) was fortunate to get past South Carolina on The Plains last week. The Gamecocks produced 30 first downs and 535 yards of total offense against the Tigers, who won thanks to three timely interceptions of Dylan Thompson, including a pair of picks inside the red zone. Steve Spurrier's team easily took the cash as a 19-point underdog.

Although Gus Malzahn had to be concerned about his defense's woes, all is good on the other side of the ball. Auburn's six scoring drives covered at least 75 yards and two of those spanned more than 90 yards. The Tigers finished with 395 rushing yards, with Nick Marshall running for three scores and throwing for another.

For the season, Marshall has completed 58.3 percent of his passes for 1,103 yards with an 11/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has run for 581 yards and seven TDs while averaging 6.8 yards per carry.

Cameron Artis-Payne has rushed for a team-high 831 yards and six TDs, averaging 5.5 YPC. Duke Williams has emerged as one of the SEC's best playmakers, hauling in 34 receptions for 527 yards and five TDs.

Ole Miss didn't suffer its first loss because of its defense. The Rebels went down by a 10-7 score at LSU because they were held to less than 23 points for the first time all season. They also failed to convert a pair of fourth-down conversions and QB Bo Wallace had the worst game of his senior campaign.

Wallace connected on just 14-of-33 passes for 176 yards. With nine seconds remaining, Ole Miss had the chance to attempt a game-tying field goal from 47 yards out, but Hugh Freeze elected to put the ball in his senior signal caller's hands. Freeze wanted Wallace to throw an out pattern to the sidelines since the Rebels didn't have any timeouts, but the QB elected to go for the end zone and underthrew his receiver for a game-ending interception.

Wallace now has an 18/7 TD-INT ratio. His favorite target is sophomore Laquon Treadwell, who has 38 catches for 529 yards and four TDs.

Ole Miss' defense has the country's top-ranked scoring defense, giving up only 10.5 points per game. The Rebels are ranked ninth in total defense and are 23rd in rushing 'D.'

The 'under' has been a major money maker in Ole Miss games this season, cashing at a 7-1 overall clip. The 'under' has gone 3-1 for the Rebels in their home games.

The 'over' is 4-3 overall for AU, but the 'under' has hit in both of its previous road assignments.

Auburn has won four of the last five head-to-head meetings both SU and ATS, including a 30-22 win as a three-point home underdog. Marshall rushed for 140 yards and a pair of TDs. Wallace countered with 336 passing yards and two TDs, but he was intercepted twice, including a costly pick-six late in the first quarter that put AU ahead, 13-3.

Ole Miss prevailed by a 41-20 count as a four-point home 'chalk' in the 2012 showdown in Oxford. Wallace threw for 226 yards and one TD and also had a pair of rushing scores.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets

The 'over' is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings between Ole Miss and Auburn.

Ole Miss owns an 8-3-1 spread record in 12 games as a home favorite on Freeze's watch.

Going back to 1985, the biggest underdog situation for the Gators against Georgia came in 2004 when UGA was a seven-point favorite. Most spots have the Bulldogs installed as 12-point favorites for Saturday's showdown in Jacksonville. Many UF insiders feel like Will Muschamp will get fired Sunday if the Gators don't end a three-game losing streak to UGA.

As a player at Georgia, Muschamp went 0-4 vs. Florida. As the coach at UF, he is 0-3 versus his alma mater.

Tennessee has limped to a 2-5 spread record as a road underdog during Butch Jones's tenure. The Volunteers are six-point underdogs Saturday at South Carolina. The Gamecocks will be looking to avenge a 23-21 loss in Knoxville last season.

Mississippi State has thrived as a home favorite during Dan Mullen's six-year tenure, compiling a 16-8 spread record. The Bulldogs are 10.5-point home 'chalk' vs. Arkansas on Saturday. The Razorbacks, who are still looking for their first SEC win on Bret Bielema's watch, are 2-4 ATS as road underdogs during Bielema's two-year time at the helm.

The current Egg Bowl line at Sportsbook.ag: Ole Miss -3 vs. Mississippi St. (in Oxford). -- The current Iron Bowl line at Sportsbook: Alabama -6.5 vs. Auburn (in Tuscaloosa).

Total Notes - Week 10
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 9 Recap

We finally saw some shootouts last week and bettors playing the ‘over’ benefited with 27-22 record. The high-scoring affairs started Tuesday with ULL and Arkansas State combining for 95 points and that momentum carried over to Friday. BYU and Boise State combined for 85 while Oregon blasted California 59-41 and it actually slowed down the game late.

On Saturday afternoon, TCU destroyed Texas Tech 82-27 as the Horned Frogs set the school record for points in a game. This was also the highest output by a school this season.

Another shootout worth noting was Western Kentucky’s 66-51 win over Old Dominion. This game easily sailed ‘over’ the closing total of 76½ and only 10 points were scored in the fourth quarter.

If you’re looking for Bad Beats from Week 9, turn your attention to the Big Ten. Ohio State led Penn State 17-0 at halftime and won 31-24, with its final 14 points coming in two overtime sessions. For those who had ‘under’ tickets (53), we apologize.

Big Five Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

Even though Florida State and Louisville combined for 73 points this past Thursday, the ‘under’ had been a great wager in ACC games. The ‘under’ went 4-1 in the five ACC matchups last week and is now 13-3 over the previous three weeks.

While the ACC has been a solid ‘under’ lean this season, the Big Ten has been the opposite. The ‘over’ went 3-2 in conference matchups last week and the two ‘under’ tickets just missed. Northwestern is the only school in the Big Ten that has been a clear-cut ‘under’ (6-1) lean this season.

Despite the aforementioned shootout between TCU and Texas Tech, the other two games in the Big 12 went ‘under’ last week. The big game this week will feature West Virginia hosting TCU and that total is steadily coming down.

The ‘over’ went 5-2 in Pac-12 play last weekend, which was helped with 59-point performances from both Oregon and Arizona. One of the games that went ‘under’ included Washington and that shouldn’t be a surprised since the Huskies are now 6-2 to the ‘under’ this season.

It’s rare to see everything go as planned but that was the case in the SEC last week. The ‘over’ went 4-2 and the two ‘under’ tickets occurred in games that had totals listed in the low forties. Three of the high-scoring games had numbers at 59 or higher.

Down the Stretch

Handicapping college football isn’t easy but many astute ‘cappers will break up the season quarterly, which enables them to adjust their ratings throughout the season. We’re now entering the third quarter and I asked VegasInsider.com Totals Expert James Manos to explain his approach in the final month of the regular season.

He answered, “Entering the final portion of the college football season I do have some advice for bettors. As the season progresses, in general, the lines get sharper. Information is more readily available and most teams have "identified" themselves in terms of how'll they'll play and the talent level they possess. Now becomes a time to be more selective and to focus on betting value even more than in the early portions of the season. The edges this time of year are very sparse so I'll lean even more towards playing dogs and totals. The totals marketplace continues to show some inefficiencies as this week we still see some major movement from the openers, suggesting, that certain totals are still bet worthy, especially vs weak opening numbers. Following these movements works better earlier in the season, when numbers can move but still have value, than now when a three point line move can reduce the value of a bet by 5-6%. Quality originators always do better but steam chasers/followers need to be more aware of risk this late in the season.”

How low can you go?

It’s rare to see college footballs listed in the forties these days, yet alone that the thirties but that’s the case In Week 10.

Four games feature numbers at 41½ points or lower and all of the games have dropped off their openers.

Boston College at Virginia Tech (43.5 to 41.5)
UCF at UConn (40 to 38.5)
Northwestern at Iowa (43.5 to 41.5 to 43)
Utah State at Hawaii (43.5 to 41)

James Manos offered up his quick thoughts on low numbers in general and how you should analyze them.

He said, “With the current state of college football it's just very difficult to take the low totals UNDER. Of course, each game must be capped on its own merits, but the margin for error in playing UNDER 42 in today's marketplace is very small. As little as 4 years ago, I used to place a strong value on the difference between the college 41 and 42, now…..not so much. Of those four lower totals that have been bet down, I'd be wary of playing UNDER in the Utah State-Hawaii game. The total has slipped below 42 and the long travel to the Islands may sap some of the effort from the best unit on the field, the Utah State defense. The other movements are all correct and I wouldn't fade them at their current numbers.”

Easy-Over?

Oklahoma vs. Iowa State – Sooners off the bye and off a loss which they scored 30, lowest number of the season. The 'over' has cashed in the last two encounters between the pair.

Western Kentucky vs. Louisiana Tech – Similar to the Hilltoppers, the Bulldogs (6-1-1) have leaned heavily to the ‘over’ this season. High total (69.5) but looks doable based on tendencies.

Georgia vs. Florida – The “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” returns to Jacksonville and both the Bulldogs (6-1) and Gators (5-1) have leaned ‘over’ this season. On Tuesday afternoon, CRIS/Bookmaker sent out 57 on this game and that was a mistake. Within five hours, the number was hit down to 48 and as of Friday evening, it's down to 46.5. The 'under' is on a 3-0 run in this series.

Ohio State vs. Illinois – The Buckeyes kept their ‘over’ streak intact last week with their overtime win against Penn State. The ‘over’ has now cashed in six straight. This week’s number for Ohio State is listed at 65 ½, which is the highest total Urban’s troops have seen. With Michigan State on deck, hard to imagine OSU looking to show off in this spot. However, OSU has dropped 52 adn 60 the last two seasons against Illinois, both 'over' winners.

Line Moves

This segment has become a very popular feature of our weekly piece and all the credit should be directed towards Manos, who analyzes the line moves in the totals market for us and breaks them into four categories.

1) Correct Sharp Movement– East Carolina/Temple OVER

2) Incorrect Sharp Movement – Kentucky/Missouri UNDER

3) Public Movement – Arizona/UCLA OVER

4) Market Manipulation - Auburn/Ole Miss OVER

Saturday CFB Preview
By Dave Essler

Have to lean a fair bit to Navy. Irish in a tough spot, although they could still be in the Championship picture since FSU won. However, this is the second of three straight road games (at Arizona State next week) while this is obviously Navy's GOY. Navy's only loss by more than 14 was the opener to Ohio State, so Navy may well get added.

The sexy picks in the V-Tech game are BC/under. Any good numbers on the total are kind of shot, and this may well be a weather-dependent game. Could be quite windy. Given that, neither team can throw the ball anyway, but I do like V-Techs' defense better and they've had extra time. With BC's upcoming schedule (Louisville/FSU) I may well wait for -3 and perhaps go Hokies here, or ML them.

Obviously IMO recreational money on East Carolina as expected, but I'm not enamored with ECU's defense at all. Temple's stock is pretty low right now, but they've played two tough teams on the road, so IMO at +7.5 the value is clearly with the Owls.

The huge line move to Uconn is probably warranted, especially given that the total is now at only 39 in places. Without over-thinking this, if the oddsmakers want to give me 25% of the projected points in the game, I would take them. UCF's stock is high, and they don't suck, but this will be their first road game since October 2nd, and it's not like they are an offensive juggernaut.

I'd like NOT to take Syracuse, but they need three of the last four games to be Bowl eligible. They simply have to win this game to have any shot of that happening. NC State needs two more wins for six, and has had two weeks off. I don't agree with the move up in the total, and at 52 have a significant lean to the under.

Duke is 6-1 having only lost to Miami, and the significant thing there is that they held Miami to 22 points. I actually like Duke here if for no other reason than the fact that Pittsburgh's defense has really not played an offense capable of scoring other than G-Tech, and that didn't go well.

Miami's stock is super-high after the public games they've played, and honestly I can't find a really good reason not to back them, even with the huge line move. They've got FSU next, which would be a reason, but that game is in two weeks. North Carolina's defense just sucks too bad for me to think about those very generous points.

Have to wonder how Maryland rebounds from the Wisconsin thrashing, and I think they just might. They HAVE won three road games already this season. I know that Penn State gave Ohio State all they wanted, but IMO that may be an isolated case. This is the same Penn State team that lost to Michigan, which nobody does. The total coming under the key number of 48 could be somewhat telling, but I don't trust Penn State's offense to build a big enough lead to not let Maryland keep it close or cover late.

I just don't get App State being a two touchdown favorite. They are not the same App State team we're accustomed to seeing with Jerry Moore on the sidelines. They lost to Liberty, at home. I know Georgia State isn't very good, but they can throw the ball around the yard. Downside here is that this could well be a huge wind-game, so probably best to pass. However, 69 is simply a ton of points to expect with two relatively inept offenses.

Doubtful that I could touch the Air Force/Army game. Obviously people liking the Falcons enough to lay the -3 on the road, or they hate Army enough to do that. However, I do like Jeff Monken and this IS only Army's fourth home game. They did beat Buffalo and Ball State (I know) at home, so gun to the head, I'll take Army.

There is just no way I can lay -15 on the road with CMU. Not after they lost to Ball State and barely beat Buffalo. I do know how bad EMU can be but this is another game where if you simply look at the projected number of points (47 or so) and they want to give us almost one-third of them, I would have to think they're worth taking.

I really do like Iowa's defense and being at home that could be enough to convince me to bet on them. The caveat here is that Northwestern has been playing more to their potential and they've had two weeks off. I just don't like their offense enough to trust on the road, and think Iowa, although the more square side, might well be the right one.

As far as the Nebraska game goes, I am a little surprised the line is still only -23.5, but, given the fact that Purdue has been putting up points on the road and against the Spartans, I do think they hang. They've had two weeks off and if Nebraska allowed Rutgers to score 24, I like Purdue and the over.

Not sure I want any part, either way, of a 35 point spread. It's probably not enough for me to take Kansas and clearly I am not laying five touchdowns. If I thought Kansas could put any points on the board I'd look at the over. The one-loss Baylor team does need to make statements, and they can. I wonder, though, about them having a date with Oklahoma in Norman next week. Pass or Baylor.

Western Michigan has a great record, but they really haven't beaten a decent team yet and gave up 38 to Ball State on the road. That is enough for me to look the other way. I know Miami's defense isn't very good, but they can put up points, so if the weather is decent I do like this over a fair bit.

Probably going to take a pass and just watch the Auburn game. The trendy side is surely the War Eagles, but how much of that is because Ole Miss lost at one of the toughest places to play last week (LSU). Auburn has a brutal schedule and they gave up far too many against South Carolina last week for my liking, even if it was a semi-look-ahead game. I'll look to perhaps back the Rebels ML here. Their defense (Ole Miss') IS that good.

Missouri has indeed been playing a little better, but I am not giving Kentucky 8 points. Stoops has done a great job, as has Pinkel, but how seriously will Missouri take them. The Wildcats just played Mississippi State tough (at home) and were crushed at LSU, but they've got to think they can win this game, and anytime a team thinks they can, they can. If Missouri could only put up 24 on Vanderbilt, the play here is Kentucky, IMO.

I am not sold on Arkansas and think they've got to be getting tired of "almost" winning. They haven't played a road game since September 13th at Texas Tech! If that line goes to -10 I will take the other side. The Bulldogs haven't had a close game at home, and I know they could relax, but with T-Martin next week, I doubt it. No chance of taking Arkansas for me.
La Tech has been playing (winning) pretty well, but Southern Miss, UTEP, and UTSA are not the elite teams of ANY conference, so without really looking too far, give me the +7. Any team that's averaging 45 points per game (Western Kentucky) getting a touchdown is enough for me.

Since Texas A & M has nothing to prove anymore (it's been proven) and they've got a game against Auburn next week, I'll seriously consider UL Monroe here. I don't care that the Aggies have had a rest period after the 'Bama boatrace. ULM has played at Kentucky and at LSU so this is probably no big deal. It's doubtful I could back their lack of offense here, but I could perhaps fade the Aggies lack of defense. However, not a game I have a real strong opinion on.

The cool side to be on is obviously MTSU over BYU and I can't say I don't agree. I do think that maybe it's gone a bit too far (the line), but there is just no way I can back BYU these days. Perhaps this move is an over reaction to what everyone saw on National TV against Boise State, but MTSU gave up 31 to Southern Miss, so it's hard for me to get behind a brutally stale number at this point. I'd play the MTSU ML before I did that.

I figured the Florida-Georgia number was too high and an over reaction to what we've seen UGA do without Gurley as well as what we've seen UF do, period. And now it's down to -10 or so. I know personally what a rivalry this is, and with the total plummeting, probably because of really sh*tty weather, at least wind/cold, I MAY have to consider the Gators. Far too late to think about the under and kudos to anyone that got the 56 or so there. Probably a better game to watch than bet on, given the fact that the good lines are long gone and I was late to the +13 party on Florida.

SoCal is back on the trendy team to bet on, so perhaps it's time to take the other side. As much as I do not like Mike Leach, every now and then his teams pull something out of their ass, and aside from the SoCal win at Stanford against a team we now know isn't what we thought they were, they've not played well on the road, really. Same team that lost to Boston College. A big total that's coming down that I might be inclined to disagree with and take the over.

With Oregon finally being healthy on the offensive line and perhaps Mariotta getting the public game that could keep him in the Heisman race, I do lean Ducks here. Stanford has trouble scoring. But, even though there's no way Oregon is looking past such a huge rival, they DO have a game at Utah next week, which in the big picture is a more telling "nationally" game. Even for an Oregon game, that total might be too high, and if I can eventually get 56, I will consider the under.

The Sooners now have two losses and not a lot to play for, which is why I MIGHT consider them here. Big Game Bob is fade material in Big Games, and this isn't one. Since Iowa State can't stop anyone, I can see this game getting over the number, but I will admit to not having looked at the weather in detail.

Anyone but Bill Snyder coaching this team and I would be all over the Cowboys here for the simple fact that K-State has TCU next week, the West Virginia (on a Thursday) in the next two weeks, both on the road. They've also got a season-ending game AT Baylor. However, it's Bill Snyder.With the pressure off Oklahoma State, maybe they can just play football. The total has lost too much value to play the under, which was my initial thought. In the end, I have no really good feel for this one.

People are lining up to face Michigan, so maybe it's time to TAKE them. They have played "better" lately and need to win three of four to make a Bowl game and the Hoosiers just don't have enough defense to back on the road. I know they're the sexy pick but if you made me, at -6.5, I might think about Michigan at home. Tough one, and the total not moving (yet) isn't giving away anything.

Both UVA and G-Tech are teams both the sharps and the public have been all over. I don't use the term wiseguys, because true wiseguys used to assassinate people. These days that's just the term for people that are sharper than recreational bettors and have more money. At home, it's hard not to like G-Tech against probably a deflated UVA team. Since Tech put up a million points on the road against a reasonable Pitt team, this line may be a bit high, especially seeing the slight drop in the total. Tech's defense isn't THAT great, so with the proverbial gun-to-the-head, I would have to take the Cavaliers here, believe it or not.

As always, give me Idaho in the Kibble Dome with three scores against anyone. Well, almost anyone.

I watched exactly one South Alabama game this season and it was the game they struggled mightily to beat Georgia State at home. But, what concerns me is that ULL struggled at home to GSU as well, and allowed 40 points at home last week. I can't call this one either way, but ULL is clearly the more balanced team, so I could use them in a ML parlay, but not laying -7.

Me and the rest of the wiseguys clearly don't see Vanderbilt being a double-digit favorite to anyone, even ODU. At the current line of +7.5 there's probably some value left, but a team that's only beaten UMass and Chareston Southerm (barely) isn't getting my money. With probable wind in Tennessee, I understand why that total is dropping, too.

Rice is on a bit of a roll after the early C-USA stumble against Old Dominion, but if you look at who they've beaten, it's a pretty sh*tty list of teams. I always look to back home underdogs, and although FIU has trouble scoring (hence under here, IMO) they play enough defense to stay well within the number and they've have two weeks to prepare. They've played Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Marshall, so Rice is surely a step-down in class here.

The left side of my brain says to take Cal here since OSU is just so mistake-prone and their defense is terrible, and Cal averages 41 points per game. Then the left side says that Cals' defense is probably worse. This is only the Beavers fourth home game, and they DID give Utah a game. My issue here is with Cal. They are one of those teams that when you think they won't, they do. And of course vice-versa. So, I don't know that the total coming down isn't a setup for later and the over might a play.

At first glance, how can you not take the 12th ranked team (Arizona) with a TD, against anyone, really. They've already won at Oregon and at Washington State, so two road conference wins can't be overlooked. UCLA has the potential to win-out, given that their last two games against USC and Stanford are both at home. Given that only the blowout over Arizona State was the only time UCLA has won by more than 8, it's tough to lay a TD here. However, it's 7 for a reason and IMO the total is artificially high, I think.

Before the season would anyone have imagined Colorado State being a touchdown favorite on the road. I would not have. But, they're 7-1 with the lone loss coming to and at Boise State. I'd be lying if I didn't say I wasn't a little concerned that they allowed 40 points at home to an awful Wyoming offense last week. SJSU has indeed played some decent teams, but they don't pass they eyeball test and in fact they've done a ton of travelling, playing in Annapolis last week. So, this game is probably off my radar. I do have a slight inclination to take the under here, but want 56 if I can get it.

Again, as in the Arizona game, it's tough not to like Utah with points. They know how to finish games and have a very good defense, which is almost enough for me. I am not worried about them playing Oregon next week, and I am worried about ASU playing Notre Dame. I know this is a conference game and the Irish is not, but it's Notre Dame. The total wanting, at this point, to come down is telling me to take the points or pass the game. Obviously I'd want +7 or nothing.

I am not sure why that total in the TCU/WVU game still sits at 70 with wind expected to be quite a factor. It's tough not to like both sides here and even tougher to not want to hop on WVU as a home dog. I can't argue that, other than to say in these games it often comes down to the best coach and the best QB, and honestly TCU probably has both, and the better defense. Perhaps a more fun game to watch that put money on, although many people will regardless.

Looking at Houston's body of work, I am not sure how the Cougars can be big favorites on the road. Yes, I know South Florida struggles to score, which is an understatement, but you don't have to go back too far to see how tough they played East Carolina at home, and have played two road games since. Without a doubt it's the Bulls or nothing, and under, IMO.

On paper I suppose Florida Atlantic is the better team, but because they're only offering +4 here, and given that they'll give +4 for the home team, I might be inclined to take UAB. It would probably be a defacto fade of FIU just because they're less predictable, but since this is the third straight road game for the Blazers and FAU might feel pretty good about not getting embarrassed by Marshall, I have to go back to the beginning here and pass. I just can't take a team that's 100th in points for and 112th in points against (FAU).

It would not surprise me if Southern Miss beat UTEP at all. Obviously there's a built in factor for the fact that people think So Miss sucks (they do) but who is UTEP, exactly. They allow points per game and have one of the worst passing attacks in CFB.

UNLV is almost favored here. Interesting. I guess that means their two wins by a total of four points is worth something, or that New Mexico is that bad. Not so sure about either and probably the most boring game on the card IMO. Least turnovers wins (it usually does) and the fact that New Mexico was able to put up 31 on Air Force on the road last week might mean I could take them. However, that total opening at 54 and going to 60 is really saying GTF away from this one and that UNLV may be the right side after all.

New Mexico State can't stop anyone, but they have been at least playing a little better of late. They did play Georgia Southern tough at home before these last two road losses (at sh*tty teams). Texas State is just a very balanced team that has already won two road games, so it's tough to get behind this home dog. Not sure I agree with the total going to 60, either.

I wish I had bigger gonads, because I don't like Ohio State's defense a lot and Illinois can at least score. Ohio State's stats are clearly padded against a weak (what's new for Urban Meyer) schedule and they've got Michigan State next week, on the road, meaning in this spot there is no chance of betting on a game I need my team to win by more than four touchdowns.

Wyoming really is that bad and Fresno really is not that good. Wyoming has started to score a little and they HAVE played Oregon and Michigan State. Fresno played a great non-conference schedule as well, and has had extra time, but to lay more than two scores with a team that's allowed over 35 points a game just isn't going to happen.

I like the Aztecs better on the road, and love Rocky Long's defense. With that in mind, given that SDSU can't score, I think this is a very close game. Nevada has had two weeks and was in Hawaii last, which is always tough for me to back this time of year. But, Nevada needs two more wins to get to six and this should (based on their schedule) have to be one of them. So, reluctantly I would lay the points, but like the under a fair bit better.

Ah, the Hawaii late night bail out game. Utah State being favored on the road (in Hawaii?) is probably too much for me to comprehend. USU hasn't had the rest period that the Rainbows have and from a betting standpoint may still be living off the win at BYU. Yes, Hawaii struggles to make first downs, but they have a reasonable defense and have at least been "in" most games they've played. I thought I'd like the under until I saw it opened at 43 and has already come DOWN. My guess is the late night bail out money will push this total back over, so waiting to place the big bet on the under should wait til 10:58 EST tomorrow night.