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College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, November 22

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College Betting Recap - Week 12
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com

The largest underdog to cash: Northwestern (+17, ML +700) at Notre Dame, 43-40 (in OT)

The largest favorite to cash: Western Michigan (-27) vs Eastern Michigan, 51-7

Top 25 Notes

It was a rough day for teams in the Top 10, particularly against the spread. Alabama-Mississippi State faced each other, and Top 10 teams finished 4-3 SU. Worse, only one Top 10 team covered in seven games, with the only cover coming in that head-to-head matchup between the Tide and Bulldogs.

Marshall kept its sheet clean with another impressive victory, topping Rice 44-21. The Thundering Herd is now 10-0 SU, and they have covered eight of their past nine.

Notre Dame slipped up at home against Northwestern by a 43-40 score in overtime, and the Irish have gone from national title contenders to has-beens in a matter of two weeks (and two losses).

In the game of the day, Florida State did their usual disappearing act in the first half, only to storm back in Miami for a second-half comeback and win. The 'Noles weren't covering until the final 3:05 of regulation. The Seminoles are still just 3-7 ATS this season.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

It was a disastrous day in the ACC, and one which could have been even worse had FSU fallen. ... Georgia Tech took advantage of an injury to Clemson QB DeShaun Watson in the first quarter, rambling to a 28-6 win over the wreck that is the Tigers and backup QB Cole Stoudt. The Jackets have erupted for four straight wins and covers since Oct. 18. ... Duke did something they have rarely done over the past two seasons - beat themselves. They blew a fourth-quarter lead and fell 17-16 at home, knocking them out of the driver's seat in the Coastal Division. ... North Carolina State became bowl eligible by throttling Wake Forest 42-13. The Wolfpack have now covered three of the past four, and they're 6-3 ATS over the past nine.

There were just three games in the Big 12, and the underdog covered in two. ... Texas Christian was behind at half at lowly Kansas, and needed second-half heroics to scratch out an uninspiring 34-30 win. Playoff committee is likely NOT impressed. ... Oklahoma was without injured QB Trevor Knight, but they still won 42-30 on the road at Texas Tech. The Sooners are just 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS over the past six games. The best trend for Boomer Sooner is the 'over' has cashed in six of their past seven.

It a solid day for the Big Ten, with road teams going 3-2 SU in league games and home teams going 3-2 ATS. ... As mentioned, Northwestern scored their big road win in South Bend, and Penn State stepped out of conference and handled its business against Temple, 30-13. ... Wisconsin covered its game against Nebraska thanks in large part to RB Melvin Gordon, who rambled for an FBS-record 408 rushing yards.

It was a weekend of the dog in the Pac-12. Underdogs went 2-2 SU and a perfect 4-0 ATS. Washington nearly pulled the road upset, losing 27-26 at Arizona. ... Meanwhile, Arizona State fumbled away its chances at a spot in the four-team playoff, losing outright at Oregon State, 35-27. The Beavers entered the game 0-4 SU/ATS over the past four. ... Utah scored another impressive win at Stanford, tripping up the Cardinal 20-17 in double-overtime. The Utes are 5-1 ATS in their past six games, and 8-2 ATS in their 10 games overall.

It was an upside-down day in the SEC. It all started in the Swamp, as the heat is back on Florida coach Will Muschamp after a brief stay of execution. South Carolina had a feel-good moment, winning 23-20 in OT in the Swamp, cashing as 6.5-point 'dogs. ... Speaking of 'dogs, Mississippi State didn't have much bark early, going down 19-0 at Alabama. Of course, anyone who liked the Bulldogs getting 10 enjoyed the final minute. See bad beats below. ... Georgia roughed up Auburn, who started the season as cover kings, but now cannot even come close. The Tigers are an uncharacteristic 1-4 ATS over the past five, and 2-6 ATS over the past eight.

Mid-Major Report

Not many people figured Memphis would amount to much this season, but the Tigers continue to roll on. They romped 38-7 at Tulane to stay on track for a New Year's Day bowl game. The Tigers are 4-2 SU on the road, and 4-1-1 ATS. ... UCF started the season slow while trying to replace QB Blake Bortles. They'll finally hitting on all cylinders at just the right time. The Knights rubbed out Tulsa 31-7 on Friday, and they're now 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS over the past seven.

In Conference USA, Marshall keeps mowing 'em down. Rice came in 6-0 SU/ATS over the past six, so the Herd's 41-14 win is that much more impressive. ... Don't look now, but Texas-El Paso is bowl eligible, and they're starting to be a favorite of bettors. Over the past five games, UTEP is 4-1 SU and a perfect 5-0 ATS. They travel to Rice Friday.

The Mountain West was the upset west Saturday. The only favorite to cover was Air Force, and they needed overtime to shed Nevada, 45-38. Quietly, and I mean VERY quietly, Air Force finds themselves at 8-2 SU. They have won four straight, and the Falcons have covered the past three. ... Hawaii has had trouble on the mainland this season, going 0-4 SU/0-3-1 ATS in four previous trips. However, they ended all of that misery with a surprising 13-0 win at San Jose State. ... Boise State turned back San Diego State 38-29, but despite a five-game win streak, they have failed to cover in three of the past four. The 'over' is a perfect 5-0 in the past five for the Broncs.

Appalachian State pulled off an upset as a 15-point underdog, taking down Arkansas State in Jonesboro by a 37-32 score. After starting the season 1-5 SU/ATS, the Mountaineers have rattled off four straight wins and they're 3-1 ATS during the span. The 'over' is also 4-1 in their past five. ... Troy looked to be dead in the water Oct. 30 in an uninspired 42-10 loss at Georgia Southern. However, the Trojans have won back-to-back games for the first time this season, and they're 3-1 ATS over the past four. Over the past seven, they're 5-2 ATS.

Bad Beats

In that marquee matchup in the SEC, Mississippi State struck with 15 seconds left to pull within five points, covering a 10-point number, and therefore turning Tide bettors' winning tickets into a loss.

Some bettors might have had long faces at the end of the Louisiana-Lafayette and Louisiana-Monroe game. Some bettors might have had the spread at 6.5 points, and therefore were perfectly content. However, if you were laying a full seven, the WarHawks struck with 1:47 left in regulation to close a 34-20 lead to just seven, turning a cover into a push.

If you had the 'over' (52.5) in the New Mexico-Utah State, you were left shaking your head. USU lead 21-14 at halftime, and the there are 42 total points midway through the third quarter. Then, the defense kicked in and over the final 22:35 of the game, the teams combined for a total of just seven points and a shocking under.

 
Posted : November 17, 2014 9:07 am
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Top 25 Betting Recap - Week 12
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com

Week 12 of the 2014 NCAA football betting season is in the books, and today, we're going to be taking a look at each of the Top 25 teams in the rankings and see how they did from an ATS perspective in this go around this past week.

(Results in parentheses represent SU Result-ATS Result)

1) Mississippi State (L-W vs. Alabama 25-20)
The Bulldogs were the biggest regular season dog a #1 team has ever been, but they were never good enough to beat the Tide.

2) Oregon (Bye)

3) Florida State (W-W vs. Miami 30-26)
Say what you want about the Noles, but Jameis Winston is 23-0 as a starter, and FSU has scored 30+ points in all 23 of those games.

4) TCU (W-L vs. Kansas 34-30)
It will be interesting to see whether the committee punishes TCU for barely escaping Lawrence.

5) Alabama (W-W vs. Mississippi State 25-20)
Almost surely, Alabama is the next one-loss team to hop FSU. The Tide could be the #1 team in the land on Tuesday.

6) Arizona State (L-L vs. Oregon State 35-27)
For as quickly as the Pac-12 rose in the rankings, it's time to bid Arizona State adieu.

7) Baylor (Bye)

8) Ohio State (W-L vs. Minnesota 31-24)
The Buckeyes are playing some of the best football in the country, and the selection committee will have a tough time leaving them out if they finish 12-1.

9) Auburn (L-L vs. Georgia 34-7)
We never thought we'd see the day that Gus Malzahn's offense was shut out for three straight quarters.

10) Ole Miss (Bye)

11) UCLA (Bye)

12) Michigan State (W-W vs. Maryland 37-15)
Jeremy Langford had another 138 yards and two scores on the ground for Sparty.

13) Kansas State (Bye)

14) Arizona (W-L vs. Washington 27-26)
The Cats have now won two games on the last play this year.

15) Georgia (W-W vs. Auburn 34-7)
We know we won't see three-loss Georgia in the playoff, but the Bulldogs now have put the pressure on Missouri in the SEC East.

16) Nebraska (L-L vs. Wisconsin 59-24)
The Fire Bo Pelini watch is officially on again.

17) LSU (L-L vs. Arkansas 17-0)
Hangover from the Alabama game really caught up with the Bayou Bengals.

18) Notre Dame (L-L vs. Northwestern 43-40)
The wheels have officially fallen off the bus in South Bend.

19) Clemson (L-L vs. Georgia Tech 28-6)
Deshaun Watson's season is over in all likelihood after suffering a knee injury.

20) Wisconsin (W-W vs. Nebraska 59-24)
Melvin Gordon broke the FBS record for rushing yards in a game with 408.

21) Duke (L-L vs. Virginia Tech 17-16)
The Dookies need to win out now to win the ACC Coastal Division for a second straight year.

22) Georgia Tech (W-W vs. Clemson 28-6)
The Ramblin' Wreck are in the clubhouse at 6-2 in the ACC Coastal.

23) Utah (W-W vs. Stanford 20-17)
The Utes are now 4-0 against the California teams in the Pac-12 this year.

24) Texas A&M (L-L vs. Missouri 34-27)
Allowing 28 points in the third quarter will knock A&M out of the Top 25 as quickly as it got into it.

25) Minnesota (L-W vs. Ohio State 31-24)
Give the Gophers credit for hanging in there against an OSU team which is one of the best in America on a snowy day in Minneapolis.

 
Posted : November 17, 2014 12:13 pm
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Bad Company - Week 13
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Three weeks remain in the college football regular season, while the next two weekends are full cards. This Saturday, several of the struggling teams that are mentioned in this piece look to find some way to cover as an underdog, while a majority of them are receiving plenty of points. We’ll begin with Indiana, who has the daunting task of hanging with Ohio State.

Indiana (+34½) at Ohio State

The Hoosiers have been a fade machine this season, as IU has covered just twice in 10 games, coming off last week’s 45-23 defeat at Rutgers as 9 ½-point underdogs. Indiana actually led at halftime, 13-10, but the Hoosiers’ defense allowed 35 points in the second half, giving up at least 34 points in five conference losses. It’s not even worth taking the points with the Hoosiers, who are 1-4-1 ATS as an underdog, with the only cover coming in an upset of Missouri back in September.

The Buckeyes are a machine right now, going 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in the past eight games since losing to Virginia Tech. Ohio State didn’t cover in last week’s win at Minnesota, but the Buckeyes have taken care of business at the Horseshoe for bettors by covering four straight home contests. However, OSU hasn’t cashed in the past three meetings with Indiana as a heavy favorite, as the Hoosiers covered in a 42-14 loss last season as 33 ½-point ‘dogs.

Texas-San Antonio (+9) at Western Kentucky

The Roadrunners began the season with a pair of covers against Houston and Arizona, but UTSA has turned into pointspread poison since by posting a 1-7 ATS record the past eight games. UTSA snapped a three-game skid in last week’s 12-10 comeback victory over Southern Mississippi as seven-point favorite, while scoring just 19 points in the previous three games combined.

Western Kentucky hasn’t been great either against the number, covering three of its past nine contests. The Hilltoppers dominated Army last week, 52-24 to cash as seven-point favorites, improving to 2-3 ATS as a home favorite. WKU’s offense has been nearly unstoppable at home this season, scoring at least 35 points in all five home contests, but the Hilltoppers haven’t covered back-to-back games in 2014.

SMU (+28) at UCF

The Mustangs are a staple in this piece in each week, but that happens when you haven’t won a game in nine tries this season. SMU squandered a late 13-0 lead in last week’s 14-13 defeat to USF, but the Mustangs picked up a cover as 9½-point underdogs, the second straight ATS win. The only positive to come out from last week’s loss was SMU allowing its least amount of points all season, while the Mustangs are 1-4 ATS as an underdog of 21 points or more.

One season removed from a Fiesta Bowl victory, UCF started this season slow out of the gate with an 0-2 SU/ATS mark. But the Knights have rebounded with a 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS record in the past seven games, while allowing 14 points or less five times. UCF has won 12 straight conference games at Bright House Networks Stadium since 2011, posting an 8-4 ATS record in this span.

New Mexico (+22) at Colorado State

Even though the Lobos are 3-7 this season, New Mexico has managed to cover four straight games, including in a 28-21 loss to Utah State as 20-point underdogs last Saturday. The Lobos are actually 4-0 ATS in four tries as a road underdog, while all five Mountain West losses have come by 11 points or fewer. The strike against this Lobos’ squad is their rushing defense, which has been shredded for an average of 277 yards a game.

Colorado State is fresh off the bye week, as the Rams look to extend their winning streak to nine with a victory on Saturday. CSU has covered six times during this hot stretch, but didn’t cash in two home wins over Wyoming and Utah State back in October. Last season, the Rams ripped up the Lobos in Albuquerque, 66-42, the fourth straight win in the series for Colorado State.

Tulsa (+20) at Houston

The Golden Hurricane has been anything but this season at 2-8, while winning just once since the start of September. Tulsa’s only win since knocking off Tulane in double-overtime in the season opener came against SMU, which is no big feat. The Golden Hurricane covered in losses at Temple and Memphis as double-digit ‘dogs, but TU has allowed at least 28 points in all six AAC games, against plenty of teams that aren’t offensively efficient.

The Cougars look to rebound after getting tripped up by Tulane as 17-point favorites, 31-24 two weeks ago. That was just the second ATS loss for Houston in the past seven games, while trying to sure up its defense after giving up 37 points combined in the three previous contests prior to the Tulane loss. Houston hasn’t had much luck at home with Tulsa in the last two meetings, dropping each matchup in 2013 and 2011, including a 41-7 defeat last season.

 
Posted : November 19, 2014 12:55 pm
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College Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Oklahoma State at Baylor

The Oklahoma State would love to play spoiler but 'Pokes' are in a freefall with blowout losses to TCU (42-9), West Virginia (34-10), K-State (48-14) and most recently Texas (28-7). On the other side, Baylor Bears off a pair of blowout victories vs Kansas (60-14), Oklahoma (48-14) prior to their bye won't let this one slip away especially in Waco where Bears have won 14 straight home games including the first four at the brand new McLane Stadium. Consider laying the lumber knowing Bears are 4-0-1 ATS following a bye week, 23-4 ATS in their last 27 home games.

Boston College at Florida State

Seminoles once again escaped disaster. Down 23-10 at the half at Miami, the Noles' outscored Canes 20-3 in the second half leaving Sun Life Stadium with a 30-26 victory as 1.5 point favorite extending the SU streak to 26 games. Seminoles not good bets this season posting a cash draining 3-7 mark against the betting line will be playing with fire this weekend. Noles have been pegged 19.5 to 20.0 point favorite hosting Boston College (6-4 SU/ATS). Noles 1-7 ATS this season laying double digits, 1-5 ATS L6 laying 18 or more points could get burned. Eagles despite their woes have cashed 5-of-7 as DD underdogs and own a smart 3-1 ATS record last four in Noles back-yard.

USC at UCLA

Cross-town rivals collide in a critical Pac-12 Conference showdown, as USC Trojans challenge UCLA Bruins at the Rose Bowl. Trojans come into this game sitting atop the Pac-12 South Division standings with a 6-2 conference mark (5-3 ATS), 7-3 record overall (6-4 ATS). The Bruins hit the field 5-2 within the conference (3-4 ATS), 8-2 on the campaign (3-7 ATS) and are half game back tied for second place with Arizona, Arizona State. The Bruins finally putting the pieces together winning four straight (2-2 ATS) will have a boat load of confidence entering the game knowing they've beaten Trojans by double digits each of the past two years. Look for Bruins to make it three in-a-row vs the cross-town rivals while improving their 4-1 ATS mark hosting Southern Cal which has a money burning 5-11 ATS skid on the road, 5-8 ATS slide away in conference play.

 
Posted : November 19, 2014 12:55 pm
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Big Ten Report - Week 13
By ASAWins.com

GAME OF THE WEEK

Wisconsin (-9.5) @ Iowa

The Badgers – along with the Buckeyes – are playing their best football right now. There’s not much left to say about the performance of Melvin Gordon last week. He rushed for an FBS-record 408 yards along with 4 TD in just three quarters of work in Wisconsin’s blowout win over Nebraska. He absolutely couldn’t be stopped it will go down as one of the most memorable performances in Badgers history. Gordon got most of the publicity, but it’s hard to overlook the impact that the defense has had for Wisconsin this season. They held the Huskers to just 180 total yards and 11 first downs and currently rank as the top overall defense in YPG allowed, 3rd against the pass, 5th against the rush, and 3rd in scoring defense. With the Badgers’ blend of unstoppable rushing attack and stingy defense, they’re a serious threat to come out atop the B1G West and present a major challenge to OSU in the B1G Championship. Before that happens, however, Wisconsin will have to take care of business in a tricky road game at Iowa this Saturday.

Iowa returns home after back-to-back roadies, the latest of which was a 30-14 win at Illinois. It was a dominant performance all around as the Hawkeyes notched 587 total yards and 26 first downs while holding Illinois to just 235 total yards and 12 first downs. It was encouraging for Iowa that QB’s Rudock and Beathard combined to complete 17-of-24 passes for 283 yards with 3 TD and 0 INT while the rushing attack notched 304 yards on 55 carries (5.5 YPC). It’s concerning for Iowa that a team they played two weeks ago (Minnesota) has a very similar approach as Wisconsin, and the Hawkeyes were completely dominated by the Gophers. Minnesota wracked up 291 rush yards and 51 points in the 37-point blowout over Iowa. The Hawks will have their hands full, but with a win over Wisconsin, Iowa still has a shot at the B1G Championship game. Wisconsin has won and covered two straight over the Hawkeyes. Last year the Badgers went into Iowa City as a 9-point favorite and won 28-9. Iowa really struggled against Wisconsin’s hybrid defense while the Badgers offense churned out 218 rush yards. The Badgers are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Iowa is just 2-5 ATS in its last 7 home games but 5-2 ATS in the last 7 conference games. Wisconsin has covered four straight conference games.

THE REST

Nebraska (-11) vs. Minnesota

Nebraska jumped out to a 17-3 lead over Wisconsin thanks to two Badger fumbles that gave the Huskers a short field to work with. It all went downhill after that as Wisconsin scored the games next 56 points. Nebraska was punch-less on offense, gaining just 180 total yards and achieving just 11 first downs. QB Armstrong was terrible, completing just 6-of-18 passes for 62 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT while the rushing attack notched just 118 yards on 2.6 YPC. Granted they were playing against the top defense in the nation statistically, but to be completely hapless was without a doubt concerning for Bo Pelini’s crew. Defensively it was ugly. The Huskers couldn’t stop Badgers RB Gordon, who set a new FBS-record with 408 rush yards on just 25 carries. It was an uninspiring performance in an important game for Nebraska’s chances, but the Huskers can’t take time to sulk as they now have an important home date with Minnesota this Saturday.

Minnesota put up a solid fight at home in the cold and snow against Ohio State last week, but ultimately came up short in the seven-point defeat. David Cobb rushed for 145 yards and three touchdowns and he’s likely salivating at the thought of facing this Nebraska run-defense that was absolutely torched last week. They’ll have to get better play from the QB position as Leidner was overmatched against OSU’s defense as he completed just 7-of-19 for 85 yards with 0 TD and 2 INT. Defensively they allowed OSU QB J.T. Barrett to have a huge day (389 total yards, 4 total TD), but he’s on another level compared to what they’ll see in Nebraska’s Tommy Armstrong this Saturday. If Minnesota’s 55th ranked rush-defense can slow Nebraska RB Abdullah – who is slowed by an injured knee – like the Badgers did last weekend, the Gophers will have a solid chance to win this conference roadie and stay in contention for a B1G West title. Minnesota is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 conference games and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 against a team with a winning record. Nebraska is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games following a loss. Nebraska has won two of three meetings since becoming a member of the B1G, but Minnesota won last year’s meeting, 34-23, as a 10.5-point underdog. Minnesota, led by RB Cobb, rushed for 271 yards on 5.0 YPC in that win.

Ohio State (-34.5) vs. Indiana

Ohio State has just two more home games to take care of before its assumed berth in the B1G Championship game. It would be shocking to see the Buckeyes fall at home to either the Hooisers this weekend or Michigan next weekend. OSU had a little trouble at Minnesota last weekend in a relatively flat performance for the Buckeyes. Granted they were off of a huge road win over Michigan State and traveling for the second consecutive week, so it wasn’t a huge surprise to see the Gophers stick around. The 31-24 win wasn’t enough to impress the Playoff committee as OSU is still on the outside looking in at the top four teams, so OSU needs to continue to dominate if it wants to ascend into the CFB Playoff field. Freshman QB Barrett continues to grow and appears to be getting better and better by the week. He tossed for 200 yards and 3 TD and added 189 rush yards and 1 TD against Minnesota last week and now has an astonishing 38 total TD on the season. Barrett will get a shot to add to his gaudy stats against this Indiana defense that ranks 104th against the pass and 81st against the rush.

The Hoosiers have now dropped five straight games and are officially not bowl eligible after last week’s loss to Rutgers. Nothing has gone right for the Hoosiers since QB Sudfeld went down with an injury. In a little over four games since Sudfeld’s injury, Indiana QB’s have combined to complete 41-of-97 passes (42%) for 313 yards with 1 TD and 5 INT. They won’t find many passing lanes yet again this week against an OSU pass-defense that allows just 189.4 pass YPG with 11 pass TD allowed and 16 INT. The one constant for Indiana this season has been the rushing of RB Coleman. Coleman rushed for a career-best 307 yards in the defeat to Rutgers last week and averages 167.8 rush YPG with 12 rush TD on the season. Look for Indiana to try to implement as much rushing into their gameplan against this OSU rush-defense that surrendered 218 rush yards on 5.0 YPC against the Gophers last week. If Coleman can churn out the yards this Saturday, Indiana will be able to control the game clock and potentially cover the 30+ point spread. Ohio State has won 69 out of 86 meetings with Indiana, including 10 straight by an average of 24.4 PPG. Indiana has covered three straight in the series, including last year as a 33.5-point underdog. The Hoosiers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

Michigan State (-22) vs. Rutgers

It was a bit of an early hangover for the Spartans against Maryland last week after their home loss to Ohio State the week prior. Sparty settled for three early field goals against Maryland and led just 16-7 at halftime before waking up in the 3rd quarter. RB Langford led the way with 138 yards and 2 scores in a game where QB Cook wasn’t sharp (14-of-31 passing). Defensively the Spartans dominated. They held the Terps to just 6 rush yards on 17 carries, forced four turnovers, and limited Maryland to just 2-of-14 on 3rd down. Winning the East is a near impossibility at this point, but the Spartans can finish strong with wins over Rutgers and Penn State to close the season. Rutgers ended its three-game losing streak and became bowl-eligible in the process with a win over Indiana last week. It didn’t come easy as Indiana held a 16-10 lead in the 3rd quarter before Rutgers scored 35 of the final 42 points down the stretch to earn the 45-23 win. The Scarlet Knights were outgained, had fewer first downs, and allowed 307 rush yards to IU’s Tevin Coleman; but were able to take advantage of three Indiana turnovers, mitigating the impact of the Hoosiers high-yardage total. Rutgers QB Nova had a much-needed good performance (16-of-27 with 2 TD and 0 INT) after a horrendous showing against Wisconsin in the prior game. Nova and this Rutgers offense will get another tough test against this MSU defense that ranks 9th in yards per game allowed and 8th in rushing yards per game allowed. These two haven’t met since 2004 and this will be their first meeting as B1G foes. Rutgers is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games and 4-2 ATS as an underdog this year. Michigan State is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 home games and 11-5 ATS in its last 16 conference games.

Michigan (-5) vs. Maryland

The Wolverines had a week off to prepare after notching their first two-game winning streak in more than a year. A visit from Maryland this week represents a solid opportunity for Michigan to become bowl-eligible before traveling to Columbus for their final game of the season. It wasn’t pretty the last time Michigan saw the field, but it was a win nonetheless. The Wolverines notched just 256 total yards, 13 first downs, and 10 points in their 10-9 win over Northwestern. QB Gardner was ineffective as he completed just 11-of-24 passes while tossing two more interceptions – giving him 13 on the season. The defense held late and stopped Northwestern’s two-point attempt to win the game. Overall Michigan held Northwestern to just 264 total yards, including -9 rush yards on 35 attempts. Michigan’s 8th ranked defense will present a huge challenge against this Maryland offense that has grown stagnant over the past three games. This Terps offense that averaged 402.3 total YPG and 35.1 PPG through their first seven games has averaged just 207 total YPG and 14 PPG. QB Brown has completed just 46.3% of his passes with 4 TD and 3 INT over that span and the rushing offense has been non-existent. Last week against Michigan State the Terps totaled six yards on 17 carries. Granted all of this offensive ineptitude has come against three of the top defenses in the B1G (Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan State), but it doesn’t bode well for the Terps that they play another top defensive unit again this Saturday. Maryland is already bowl-eligible, but can move into the postseason with a bit of momentum if it can notch a win at the Big House this Saturday and finish with a win at home over Maryland next week. These two haven’t met since 1990 and this will be the first meeting as B1G East division foes. The Terps are just 1-8 ATS following a bye week but are 5-0 ATS following a SU loss. Michigan is just 0-4 ATS following a SU win and just 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Penn State (-6.5) @ Illinois

It has been a while since the words “Penn State” and “bowl-eligible” have been said in the same sentence – at least with a positive connotation – but that’s exactly what the Nittany Lions are after last week’s 30-13 victory over Temple. Penn State finally got a positive impact from its rushing attack against the Owls, rushing for 254 yards on 47 carries – just the 2nd time PSU has rushed for more than 162 yards in a game this season. The Nittany Lions should be able to churn out a few more yards this Saturday against an Illinois run-defense that ranks 124th nationally (allowing 266.9 rush YPG). A bigger concern for the Nittany Lions is the consistently poor performances they’re getting from QB Hackenberg. Hackenberg has just 3 TD compared to 10 INT over the past eight games and he has had three straight games where he finished with less than 47 percent completions. He still is just a sophomore and is working behind a truly terrible offensive line, but it’s a very disconcerting development for the former B1G freshman of the year. For Illinois, a bowl game is still in reach if the Illini can win the final two games of the season. The excitement over QB Wes Lunt’s return from injury was short-lived as he tossed for just 102 yards on 14-of-25 passing against Iowa last week. Illinois couldn’t run the ball either, tallying just 88 rush yards on 25 carries. Defensively the showing was even worse as the Illini allowed nearly 600 yards of total offense and 26 first downs. Penn State has won eight of the past 10, but few of them have been easy. Illinois covered seven of the 10 meetings, including three of the last four. Last year Penn State escaped in overtime, 24-17, in a very evenly matched contest. The road team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings while the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four.

Northwestern (-1.5) @ Purdue

The Wildcats pulled off one of the most improbable outcomes of the season in the B1G with their 43-40 win at Notre Dame last week. Not only was it surprising, but it was also a hugely entertaining game that featured six lead changes and saw Northwestern come back from 11-down in the final five minutes to tie the game and send it to overtime. It ended a four-game losing skid and kept them alive for a bowl bid. Northwestern notched 547 total yards and 28 first downs and got solid performances from QB Siemian (284 pass yards) and RB Jackson (149 rush yards). The Wildcats can’t afford to sleep on a pesky Boilermakers squad this weekend. It was a good time for Purdue’s bye week as the Boilers have dropped four straight games, the last two coming in blowout fashion to Nebraska and Wisconsin. While it’s evident that the Boilers have made a ton of progress in year two under Darrell Hazell, it isn’t translating in the standings. Purdue was briefly able to make it a competitive game with Wisconsin, but in the end it was their fourth consecutive loss and second in a row by 17 points or more. Other than a 79-yard TD pass in the 3rd quarter against Wisconsin, Purdue really struggled to move the ball against the B1G’s best defense. Take away that 79-yarder, and Purdue managed just 151 total yards. They rushed 26 times for 26 yards and QB Appleby was largely ineffective (17-of-37 passing). Defensively they had no success slowing down the Badgers’ vaunted rushing attack (who has?) as Wisconsin rumbled for 264 rush yards on 42 carries (6.3 YPC). The Boilers will try to play spoiler as a win over the Wildcats would prevent them from going to a bowl game. This series has been almost exactly even as Purdue has won six of the last 10 outright and each has covered five of the last 10 games. Purdue won the last meeting in 2010. The Boilers have dropped two out of the last three home games with Northwestern, the last of which coming in 2009. Northwestern is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 games following a win but just 4-10 ATS in the last 14 conference games. Purdue is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 games following a double-digit loss at home.

 
Posted : November 20, 2014 12:20 pm
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ACC Report - Week 13
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

There are just two weekends of Atlantic Coast Conference regular season football left, and there are still some HUGE games to be played. Thursday's North Carolina-Duke game will have a huge impact on whether or not Duke has a chance to return to the ACC Championship Game. Georgia Tech can just sit idly by and watch, as they're off this week and done with their ACC portion of the schedule in an odd twist. They play rival Georgia next week after their bye. If the Blue Devils slip up against UNC or Wake Forest next week, Georgia Tech is in.

One of the more underrated games on the card this weekend might be Louisville-Notre Dame. The game has lost a lot of luster since the Irish have gone in the tank recently, but this still could be a very entertaining game. It's very important for Louisville, who could get a signature road win and secure an upper-tier bowl with a win. Nationally, not many have talked about this game, but it looks good on paper.

Virginia Tech at Wake Forest

Virginia Tech has been an odd team to figure out. They have road wins against ranked teams Ohio State and Duke, but don't count them out from laying an egg in a game they are supposed to win. They're installed as 15-point road favorites in Winston-Salem this weekend, but they're still just 2-10-1 ATS in their past 13 against a team with a losing record, and 2-6 ATS in their past eight ACC games. They're also 3-12 ATS in their next 15 following an ATS win. Wake Forest simply cannot score. The under has hit in 22 of their past 29 games overall, and is 19-7 in their past 26 ACC battles. The under is also 5-1 in their past six home outings. Virginia Tech has had the under come in four times in the past five, and is 6-1 in their past seven conference battles. Still, a college line of 39 screams stay away. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings, with the Hokies 4-0 ATS in the past four.

Syracuse at Pittsburgh

The only interesting thing about this game is the Panthers trying to keep their flickering bowl eligibility hopes alive. Does Pitt even deserve it after their up-and-down season? The Orange head in 4-0 ATS in the past four road games, and 4-0 ATS in their past four against a team with a losing overall record, and they're 7-3 ATS in their past 10 on grass. Pitt is on a slide, going 1-3-1 ATS in their past five conference tilts, 1-4 ATS in their past five home outings, and 1-6-1 ATS in their past eight overall. However, Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in their past five home games against Syracuse, and 4-0-1 ATS in their past five against the Orange overall. The favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the past five meetings between these two former Big East rivals. Pittsburgh is favored by seven and a hook, and that seems a bit extreme, but it's hard to back the 'Cuse, too.

Georgia State at Clemson

Clemson is a 40.5-point favorite against the Panthers of the Sun Belt, making the quick trip up I-85 to the upstate. The Tigers are done in ACC play, finishing up with South Carolina next week. Might they be looking ahead to a rivalry game they desperately need to win? It's uncertain if the team will risk playing QB Deshaun Watson (knee) in this game, or try to keep him healthy for the 'Cocks. Watson suffered a lateral collateral ligament injury in last week's game, but avoided the dreaded ACL tear some feared. QB Cole Stoudt has been atrocious when leading this offense, and the Panthers might be the play with 40 points to play with if the backup gets the nod as expected.

Louisville at Notre Dame

This game features a pair of 7-3 teams, but one team is happy to be where they are, while another is stunned to have three losses after such high hopes just a few weeks ago. Louisville comes in with a freshman QB Reggie Bonnafon leading the way after Will Gardner (knee) was lost for the season due to a season-ending knee injury. Still, the Cardinals have given him experience, and he has shown he is a good thrower and a dual threat. Louisville is 5-2 ATS in its past seven against teams with a winning record, and 23-8 ATS in the past 31 road games, but that all appears out the window with a frosh under center. The Irish are 6-1 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record, although they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five overall. Still, as three-point favorites at home, you have to like Everett Golson, even with all of his mistakes, over a newbie signal caller.

Boston College at Florida State

The Eagles hit the road for a somber Tallahassee following on-campus shootings. Not that it is important, but the school has announced all athletic events will be played as scheduled. Condolensces to the victims of such a senseless tragedy. Boston College heads in 9-1 ATS in their past 10 following an ATS loss, and they're 11-5 ATS in their next 16 games following offensive production of 20 or fewer points in their previous outing. However, they're still just 5-11 ATS in the past 16 road games. Florida State heads in just 3-8 ATS in their past 11 overall, and 1-4 ATS in the past five at home. But they're sure to come out with a lot of emotion, and the football game serves as a catharsis for the Florida State community. At 7-3 ATS in the past 10 games against a team with a winning record, and emotion on their side, we might see the best from the Seminoles all season. The newly re-crowned No. 1 team in the land is a 17-point favorite.

Miami-Florida at Virginia

Virginia looks to end its slide and keep their bowl hopes alive with a win against Miami. The Hurricanes look for a rare road victory to keep their possibilities of a decent bowl alive. The Canes are just 1-4 ATS in their past five road games, and 6-14 ATS in their past 20 against a team with a losing record. Including last weekend's crushing home loss to Florida State, a game which they looked to be in control at times, they're just 4-9 ATS in the past 13 conference outings. Will there be any hangover at Scott Stadium for UM? Virginia covered last week, and they're 6-2-1 ATS in their past nine against a team with a winning record. They're also 5-1-1 ATS in their past seven at home. They're a 5.5-point dog on their own grass, and the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings in this series. However, the road team is also 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings. The over has hit in four of the past five meetings, too, although the under has been the play for both sides this season. The under is 6-0 in Miami's past six ACC games, and 4-1 in their past five on the road. The under is 5-0 in UVA's past five overall, and 7-0 in their past seven conference tilts.

BYE WEEKS

Georgia Tech, North Carolina State

 
Posted : November 20, 2014 10:40 pm
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Saturday's SEC Showdowns
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Ole Miss at Arkansas

As of late Thursday, most books had Ole Miss (8-2 straight up, 6-3-1 against the spread) listed as a 3.5-point favorite for Saturday's showdown in Fayetteville. The total was 45.5 points. The Razorbacks were +155 on the money line (risk $100 to win $155).

I've been saying all year that Arkansas (5-5 SU, 8-2 ATS) is going to clip at least one SEC West powerhouse. One down, two to go. The Razorbacks broke out the cream cheese and handed LSU a bagel Saturday night in Fayetteville. It brought a 17-game losing streak against SEC foes to an end. At long last, Hog Fans can put the Bobby Petrino Disaster behind them and look forward to a bright future under Bret Beliema.

Arkansas won a 17-0 decision over LSU as a one-point home favorite. The defense completely stymied LSU's offense, holding it to 123 yards of total offense. The Tigers could muster just 35 rushing yards on 32 attempts. Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins both rushed for one TD apiece for the Hogs.

Arkansas has covered the spread at an 8-1 clip in its last nine games. The Razorbacks have been dynamite at home this year, going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS.

Ole Miss has had two weeks to prep for Hogs. After dropping a 35-31 heartbreaker to Auburn three weeks ago, the Rebels stroked Presbyterian 48-0 but came up just shy of covering the 50.5-point spread. Bo Wallace threw a pair of TD passes and ran for another score. Jordan Wilkins ran for 171 yards and one TD on 10 carries, while Mark Dodson rushed for 128 yards and two TDs on just three totes.

For the season, Wallace has a 22/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio and four rushing TDs. He must play out the rest of the season without his favorite target in sophomore WR Laquon Treadwell.

Arkansas QB Brandon Allen has vastly improved this season after struggling with a shoulder injury for much of the 2013 campaign. Allen has a 15/5 TD-INT ratio and a pair of rushing scores.

Williams has rushed for a team-high 932 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 6.0 yards per carry. Collins has run for 886 yards and 11 TDs, averaging 5.9 YPC.

As a road favorite during Hugh Freeze's tenure, the Rebels own a 3-3 spread record. Arkansas is 2-3 ATS as a home 'dog on Bielema's watch.

Ole Miss has won back-to-back games over Arkansas, but the Razorbacks took the money in last year's 34-24 loss in Oxford as 17-point underdogs. The Rebels won 30-27 as 6.5-point 'dogs in their last trip to Fayetteville.

The 'over' is 6-4 overall for Arkansas, 4-2 in its home games. The Hogs have seen their games average a combined score of 56.2 points per game.

The 'under' is 7-2 overall for Ole Miss, 3-0 in its road games. The Rebels have seen their games average a combined score of 45.3 PPG.

The 'under' is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these SEC West rivals.

CBS will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

Vanderbilt at Mississippi State

As of Thursday, most betting shops had Mississippi State (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS) installed as a 30.5-point favorite with a total of 53 for 'over/under' wagers. 5Dimes has the Commodores available on the money line for a monster 45/1 payout (risk $100 to win $4,500).

Dan Mullen's team went down for the first time last week in Tuscaloosa, dropping a 25-20 decision at Alabama. However, Mississippi State covered the number in backdoor fashion thanks to Dak Prescott's four-yard TD pass to Jameon Lewis on fourth down with 15 seconds remaining. The scoring strike allowed the Bulldogs to take the cash as 10-point underdogs.

Despite throwing a pair of TD passes and accounting for 290 passing yards and 82 rushing yards, Prescott had his worst game of the season. He was intercepted three times, including a terrible pick deep in the red zone in the third quarter to end an outstanding drive. Prescott has been intercepted eight times in the last four SEC games. The performance at 'Bama all but ended Prescott's realistic hopes of winning the Heisman Trophy, although he's still a strong candidate to be invited to New York City.

Josh Robinson rushed for only 37 yards on 12 carries against the Crimson Tide. It was his second-lowest output this year. Nevertheless, Robinson surpassed the 1,000-yard mark for the season. He now has 1,021 rushing yards, 11 TDs and a 6.5 YPC average.

For the season, Prescott has a 20/10 TD-INT ratio and 11 rushing scores.

As a home favorite during Mullen's tenure, MSU has compiled a 15-10 spread record.

This is a classic sandwich spot for the Bulldogs, who are coming off a huge game and have the biggest Egg Bowl showdown in decades on deck next week.

Vanderbilt (3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS) was on a 5-1 ATS run until its last outing when Florida came into Nashville and captured a 34-10 win as a 14-point road 'chalk.' Johnny McCrary threw a TD pass to give the Commodores an early 7-0 advantage, but he was intercepted twice later in the game. He finished with 160 passing yards.

McCrary, a redshirt freshman, will make his fourth career start in Starkville. He has completed 53.5 percent of his throws for 806 yards with a 9/6 TD-INT ratio.

Vandy redshirt freshman RB Ralph Webb has run for a team-high 838 yards and three TDs. He's averaging 4.5 YPC. Webb is the man for the present and the future for Derek Mason, who dismissed junior RB Jerron Seymour from the program on Thursday. Seymour had 14 rushing TDs in 2003, but he was only given 25 carries this year. Mason also booted junior RB Brian Kimbrow earlier this season.

Vandy has thrived as a road underdog for a solid decade, including this season. The Commodores are 3-0 ATS as road 'dogs this year. Going back to 2004, they own a 30-13-1 spread record in 44 games as road puppies.

Since 1989, these SEC rivals have met only seven times. Mississippi State is 6-1 both SU and ATS in those seven encounters. The last meeting was in 2009 when MSU collected a 15-3 win as an 8.5-point road underdog.

Totals have been a wash both overall (5-5) and at home (3-3) for Mississippi State

Totals have been an overall wash (5-5) for Vandy, too. It has seen the 'under' go 2-1 in its three road assignments.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network.

B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets

Vandy hasn't beaten a top-10 foe since besting sixth-ranked South Carolina on Oct. 20 of 2007.

Vandy has played an FBS-high 31 freshmen this year.

Just when Butch Jones seemed to be getting it going with back-to-back wins at South Carolina and vs. Kentucky, Tennessee got bad news earlier this week. Senior linebacker A.J. Johnson and sophomore CB Michael Williams have been suspended indefinitely from all team-related activities pending the result of a police investigation. Johnson and Williams are facing sexual-assault allegations stemming from an incident in Knoxville early Sunday morning. Also, DB Brian Randolph is suspended for the first half of Saturday's home game vs. Missouri. Johnson leads the SEC in tackles with 101, while Williams has started five games and made 23 tackles. Randolph has 76 tackles, one forced fumble and one interception. As of Thursday, most books had the Volunteers favored by 3.5 points.

After winning a 34-27 decision at Texas A&M as a 3.5-point underdog, Missouri has taken the cash in eight consecutive road assignments. Going back to 2007, the Tigers are on a 25-9 ATS run in their last 34 road games.

Florida is 7-14 ATS as a home favorite during Will Muschamp's tenure. As of late Thursday afternoon, a line had not yet been released for the Gators' home finale Saturday vs. Eastern Kentucky. A number should be out late Thursday or early Friday.

 
Posted : November 20, 2014 10:47 pm
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Saturday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag

LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (7-3) at NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (7-3)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Notre Dame -3.5, Total: 52.5

Notre Dame looks to avoid its fourth loss in five games when it hosts No. 24 Louisville on Saturday afternoon.

The Cardinals have done well this season as they are 5-3 SU in the tough ACC with losses to Virginia, Clemson and Florida State. Overall they are 6-4 ATS, as they have failed to cover the spread in two of their past three contests. They did do well in their most recent game though, when they defeated Boston College on the road by a score of 38-19 as 3-point favorites. They outscored the Eagles 21-6 in the second half as they totaled 423 yards of offense for the game while the defense picked off four B.C. passes. The Irish looked to have a chance at playing in the playoffs this year with a 6-0 SU start (4-2 ATS), but things fell apart with losses to Florida State, Arizona State and Northwestern in their past four contests. They have also hurt bettors as they are 0-3 ATS in their past three games including an overtime loss to Northwestern last week as 17-point home favorites. Notre Dame allowed 547 total yards of offense to the Wildcats as it once against struggled with turnovers, coughing up the pigskin four times in the loss to give the school nine giveaways in the past two weeks. These two programs have not met at any point recently and will not play again until the 2019 season. Some trends that bettors should be aware of include that Notre Dame is a poor 6-17 ATS (26%) in home games after having lost two out of their previous three games since 1992, while the Cardinals are just 1-6 ATS (14%) after scoring 37+ points in their previous game in the past three seasons. Louisville suffered a big loss with QB Will Gardner (knee) now being out for the season, and the team could also be without WR James Quick (suspension), who missed the Boston College game after violating team rules. The Irish’s big loss came a few weeks ago when they lost LB Joe Schmidt (ankle) for the season while DL Sheldon Day (hip) is listed as questionable.

The Cardinals do not really excel in any part of their offense as they are scoring 31.6 PPG behind 239.3 YPG passing and 148.1 YPG in the rushing attack. With Gardner out, QB Reggie Bonnafon (662 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT) will get the call, and he has been solid in limited action this season as the backup. When he entered the game last week, he hit on 4-of-5 passes for 69 yards while two of his completions went for scores. He is a valuable dual-threat option as well with 138 rushing yards (2.7 YPC) and three touchdowns this year. The running back position is led by HB Brandon Radcliff (445 rush yards, 8 TD) while both HBs Michael Dyer (414 rush yards, 4 TD) and Dominique Brown (374 rush yards, 4 TD) have 90 or more carries. The possible absence of WR James Quick (459 rec yards, 3 TD) is cushioned by the presence of WR DeVante Parker (490 rec yards, 1 TD) who returned three weeks ago and has gone over 130 yards with at least eight receptions in each contest. He is a true red-zone threat who tallied double-digit TDs in each of the past two seasons. The defense for this program has been exceptional in allowing opponents to score a mere 17.8 PPG (10th in FBS) while ranking 10th in the nation with 25 forced turnovers. Much of this production has started from a strong pass rush led by DLs Sheldon Rankins (7 sacks, 39 tackles, 2 INT) and Lorenzo Mauldin (6.5 sacks, 39 tackles) while S Gerod Holliman (13 INT, 1 TD, 31 tackles) has picked off nearly everything that has been thrown in his direction, racking up five interceptions in the past two games alone.

Notre Dame had looked like an efficient and dynamic offense to start the year, and it still ranks 15th in passing (304.4 YPG). Although the Irish have dropped off in their rushing attack (160.7 YPG), they have still scored 35.4 PPG (28th in FBS). QB Everett Golson (3,044 pass yards, 27 TD, 12 INT) has at least one interception in each of the past seven games after throwing none in the first three contests while going for 300+ passing yards four times in the past five games. He is always a threat to take off on the ground as well, with 339 rushing yards on 104 attempts (3.3 YPC) and 8 TD this year while posting his highest rushing total (78 yards) in the loss to Northwestern. HB Tarean Folston (668 rush yards, 4 TD) has at least 18 carries in four out of the past five games and is averaging 118.3 YPG when he hits that number. He has also been able to help out Golson with 165 yards on 14 catches (11.8 avg) and a touchdown. WR William Fuller (853 rec yards, 13 TD) has been the top option through the air, as he has gone over 115 yards three times this year and has at least one score in all but one single contest. Last week he had his best effort of the season in the defeat, as he grabbed nine balls for 159 yards (17.7 avg) and three touchdowns. The Fighting Irish were an elite defense through the first five games of the year, allowing just 12.0 PPG to their opponents, but have fallen off since, with opponents scoring a robust 42.2 PPG against them in the past five contests. DBs Matthias Farley (36 tackles, 4 INT, 3.5 sacks) and Cole Luke (37 tackles, 4 INT, 1 sack), and LB Jaylon Smith (77 tackles, 2 sacks) will need to step up to get the team back to its early season form.

ARIZONA WILDCATS (8-2) at UTAH UTES (7-3)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Utah -4, Total: 54

No. 15 Arizona and No. 17 Utah meet on Saturday for an important game within the wide-open Pac-12 South division.

Arizona has put together a great season with an 8-2 SU record highlighted by defeating Oregon 31-24 as 21.5-point underdogs earlier in the year. Unfortunately, they have not done well for bettors with a 3-7 ATS record while failing to cover in each of their past three attempts. Last week, the Wildcats barely earned the win over Washington, as they escaped with a 27-26 victory at home as 8-point favorites. It took a field goal with time expiring for them to secure the win as they were outgained 504-375 while each team turned the ball over three times. Utah has also been solid in the Pac-12 with key victories over UCLA and USC, but was unable to keep the winning ways going as it lost consecutive games to Arizona State and Oregon. The Utes have been very impressive for bettors at 8-2 ATS on the season and were 10-point underdogs when they traveled to Stanford last week as they were able to pull off an upset in overtime with a 20-17 win. The teams combined for just 541 yards of offense in the defensive struggle, but Utah’s efficiency was key as the team completed 21-of-28 passes and did not turn the ball over. Arizona has won each of the past two meetings in this series by an average of 10.5 PPG while covering both games and throwing for 300+ yards each time. Last season the Wildcats hosted the Utes as 3.5-point favorites and prevailed 35-24 while getting 26 first downs and collecting 320 yards through the air. Before placing a wager, bettors should know that Utah is a mere 23-41 ATS (36%) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992 while Arizona is 0-7 ATS after scoring 20+ points in the first half of two consecutive games over the past three seasons. Amazingly neither team has any significant injuries to worry about for this key Pac-12 matchup.

Arizona ranks among the naton's top-50 with a potent passing game (306.7 YPG, 14th in FBS) while adding 185.5 YPG from the rushing attack, and posting 35.6 PPG in the process. QB Anu Solomon (3,058 pass yards, 25 TD, 7 INT) has exceeded expectations as a freshman while throwing 3+ TD in five games this year and surpassing 300 yards three times. He put forth a subpar performance in the win over Washington last week though, going 17-for-39 (44%) with 242 yards and 2 INT, while failing to throw a touchdown for the first time this season. HB Nick Wilson (867 rush yards, 9 TD) has hit the century mark rushing the ball five times this year, including the past two games in which he has averaged 128.5 YPG while scoring twice in last week’s victory. There are seven different Arizona players who have more than 20 receptions on this team with WR Cayleb Jones (788 rec yards, 8 TD) leading the way with 58 grabs. He has slowed down after a fast start though, gaining a mere 52.2 YPG over his past six games. The Wildcats defense has allowed opponents to score 26.1 PPG this season behind the efforts of stud LB Scooby Wright III (118 tackles, 12 sacks) and DB Jared Travis (94 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT).

Utah is not like many of its Pac-12 counterparts with an average offense tallying just 189.9 passing YPG and 177.5 rushing YPG, leading to 31.4 PPG. QB Travis Wilson (1,558 pass yards, 13 TD, 2 INT) has six touchdowns and just two picks over his past four contests while looking very impressive in the victory over Stanford last week (21-for-28, 177 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT). He does like to attack the opposition with his legs too, with five games of double-digit carries while gaining 172 yards (2.0 YPC) and scoring two touchdowns overall on the year. HB Devontae Booker (1,113 rush yards, 8 TD) is gaining 5.1 YPC over 218 attempts and had a stretch of five games over the middle of the season where he averaged 162.2 YPG, but has put up a meager 60.4 YPG over the other five contests. He is a big part of the passing game as well with 30 catches for 252 yards (8.4 avg) and two scores, including 17 catches in the past two weeks alone. There is no dominant receiver that comes from this team, while WR Kenneth Scott (351 rec yards, 4 TD) leads the team in receptions (33) and is tied with WR Dres Anderson (355 rec yards, 4 TD) for most touchdown grabs. The performances of LB Jared Norris (90 tackles, 4 sacks), DB Gionni Paul (61 tackles, 4 INT), DL Nate Orchard (73 tackles, 16.5 sacks) and DL Hunter Dimick (50 tackles, 9 sacks) have led the team to giving up 23.8 PPG (43rd in nation) to their opponents.

OLE MISS REBELS (8-2) at ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (5-5)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Ole Miss -3, Total: 45.5

No. 8 Ole Miss looks to stop a two-game skid against SEC opponents on Saturday afternoon when it visits a confident Arkansas club.

The Rebels had their sights set on the NCAA Playoffs with a perfect 7-0 start (SU and ATS) to the year, but losses to both LSU and Auburn has set them back. They fell by an average of just 3.5 PPG against those two opponents while being favored in each contest, and with their 48-0 victory as 52.5-point favorites over Presbyterian last week, they have now failed to cover in three consecutive tries. Ole Miss had no issues with the Blue Hose as it amassed 640 yards of offense on them while holding their opponent to a meager 156 yards and two turnovers. The Rebels rushing attack was unstoppable with 402 yards on 36 attempts (11.2 YPC) while two halfbacks eclipsed 100 yards. Arkansas is a perfect 4-0 (SU and ATS) when playing outside of the SEC, but has been overmatched in the conference with a poor 1-5 SU record, while actually doing well for bettors at 4-2 ATS. Each SEC opponent it has faced has been ranked among the top-20 in the nation at the time of the game as it has dropped those contests by an average of 10.4 PPG while being within one score of Texas A&M, Alabama and Mississippi State. Last week the Razorbacks pulled out a nice victory against LSU at home with a 17-0 finish as two-point favorites. It was their first SU win against an SEC opponent in 18 attempts as they held the Tigers scoreless for the first time since the National Championship game in 2012. The Razorbacks held LSU to a putrid 123 yards of offense in the contest while converting an impressive 10-of-17 third downs. The Rebels have won both of the past two seasons in this matchup (1-1 ATS), with an average margin of victory of 6.5 PPG. Last year they met in Oxford, as the Rebels were 17-point favorites and outscored Arkansas 34-24 behind 419 passing yards. Trends show that Ole Miss is 20-7 ATS (74%) in games played on turf over the past three seasons while the Razorbacks are a perfect 6-0 ATS following a game where they forced one or less turnovers this year. The Rebels took a hit a few weeks ago when they lost WR Laquon Treadwell (ankle) for the season, and also have HB I’Tavius Mathers (concussion) listed as questionable for this contest. On the other side of the ball, Arkansas has no significant omissions from this contest due to injury.

Ole Miss gets it done in both facets of its offense that scores 33.4 PPG, producing 272.7 YPG through the air (33rd in FBS), while rushing the ball for 174.4 YPG. QB Bo Wallace (2,554 pass yards, 22 TD, 8 INT) has thrown at least one touchdown pass in each game this season while providing multiple scores between passing and rushing in 8-of-10 contests. He has thrown for more than 300 yards four times this season, but just once against an SEC opponent, while getting double-digit rushing opportunities in five of his past six contests, leading to 233 yards (2.4 YPC) and four touchdowns on the year. HB Jaylen Walton (398 rush yards, 4 TD) has had at least 10 carries in four games this year while contributing as a receiver with 159 yards and 2 TD through the air. He is joined in the backfield by HB Jordan Wilkins (311 rush yards, 1 TD), and he had 171 yards and a touchdown in only 10 carries last week against Presbyterian. WRs Vince Sanders (647 rec yards, 6 TD) and Cody Core (437 rec yards, 5 TD) will have to pick up the slack with Treadwell out for the season, and Sanders has been impressive with 17.5 yards per catch while eclipsing the 100-yard mark in each of the past two games. As the offense has been solid, the defense is the real strength of this team, leading the nation in scoring defense (11.9 PPG) by giving up more than 20 points just once on the year. DB Senquez Golson (9 INT, 29 tackles, 1 TD) and DL Marquis Haynes (6.5 sacks, 24 tackles) have been the big playmakers on this side of the ball for the Rebels.

Despite having trouble against tough SEC opponents, the Razorbacks have a solid offense which has gained 232.9 rushing YPG (22nd in nation) while adding 199.9 YPG through the air, leading to 34.0 PPG (36th in FBS). QB Brandon Allen (1,905 pass yards, 15 TD, 5 INT) has been solid this season while eclipsing 200 passing yards in four of his past five games, but has failed to throw a touchdown in each of the past two games. HBs Jonathan Williams (932 rush yards, 11 TD) and Alex Collins (886 rush yards, 11 TD) create a tough matchup for opposing defenses, as they have averaged a solid 6.0 YPC together in 304 attempts. The pair has seven triple-digit rushing performances between them, while each back has double-digit carries in the past four contests. WRs Keon Hatcher (435 rec yards, 3 TD) and Hunter Henry (417 rec yards, 2 TD) each have 30+ receptions as they lead all receivers. The defense for this program has done well while allowing fewer than 20 points in each of the past three games and are giving up an average of only 22.2 PPG (27th in nation) on the year. LB Martell Spaight (97 tackles, 6.5 TFL, 1 INT) leads the team in tackles this season and will have a tough task ahead against the Rebels this week.

USC TROJANS (7-3) at UCLA BRUINS (8-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: UCLA -3.5, Total: 61

With four straight wins, No. 9 UCLA is still alive in the NCAA playoff hunt, but needs a victory against No. 19 USC on Saturday night to remain in contention.

This game is always played at a high level because of the Los Angeles rivalry. This year though, it is even more important because of the conference standings implications. The Trojans have won four of their past five contests and currently lead the red-hot Bruins by one-half-game in the South. USC has lost some heartbreakers this season, with all three of its defeats coming by a combined 13 points. The Trojans have done a nice job against ranked teams this year though, going 2-1, with road wins at Arizona and Stanford. UCLA had lost 12 of 13 games in this rivalry before Jim Mora took over as head coach, and he has led the Bruins to two straight wins in this series, including a 35-14 blowout last season. Quarterback Brett Hundley totaled 288 yards and two touchdowns in that victory. After two losses and two closer-than-expected games against California and Colorado, the Bruins have bounced back with double-digit victories against both Arizona and Washington. However, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points coming off two straight conference wins facing an opponent that just won by double-digits on the road are just 11-43 ATS (20%) over the past 10 seasons. But Trojans head coach Steve Sarkisian is 21-9 ATS (70%) after an ATS defeat in his coaching career.

The Trojans have had an up-and-down season, but one thing that has remained consistent is the passing game, which ranks 19th in the nation with 294.9 YPG. USC also ranks 29th in scoring (35.2 PPG) and 66th in rushing (163.1 YPG). Leading the offense is QB Cody Kessler (2,919 passing yards, 29 TD, 3 INT), who has completed a terrific 70% of his passes this season. The USC offense is very capable of big plays, but Kessler has done a tremendous job of not taking too many risks deep downfield. A big reason why the passing game is so effective is because of the threat of RB Javorius Allen (217 carries, 1,184 yards, 8 TD). He is a physical running back who can wear out a defense. Allen forces the opposing defenses to put another safety in the box, opening up favorable matchups on the outside. WR Nelson Agholor (82 rec, 1,079 yards, 10 TD) has emerged as one of the top playmakers in the country. Anytime that Kessler needs a big completion, he is looking Agholor’s way. He is also a key part of the Trojans return game. WR JuJu Smith (42 catches, 531 yards, 5 TD) appears to be the next great receiver at USC, drawing comparisons to Marqise Lee. Smith is speedster who can get behind the defense, but he is also a crisp route runner. The offense has been solid all season, but there is a lot of star power on a defense that ranks 38th in points allowed (23.3 PPG). Leading the way is DE Leonard Williams (6 sacks, 62 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 3 FF), who is one of the best players in college football, and a candidate for the No. 1 overall pick in a future NFL draft. He is a rare combination of size and speed, and is nearly impossible to block. LB Hayes Pullard (75 tackles, 8 PD, 2.5 TFL) is the leading tackler on the team, taking advantage of the double teams that Williams demands. Sophomore S Su’a Cravens (52 tackles, 14 TFL, 5 sacks) is another star on the USC defense, and he will have to be ready to get after a quarterback who rushed for two touchdowns against the Trojans last year.

Entering this game, UCLA ranks 29th in FBS rushing (215.8 YPG), 31st in passing (273.4 YPG) and 32nd in scoring (34.7 PPG). Junior QB Brett Hundley (2,547 passing yards, 564 rushing yards, 24 total TD) is one of the top quarterbacks in the country, continuing to show he can make plays with both his legs and his arm. Like Kessler, he is very accurate throwing the ball, completing a stellar 72% of his passes. While he still has run effectively this season (4.2 YPC), he has not had to carry the ball as much because of the emergence of RB Paul Perkins (189 carries, 1,169 yards, 6 TD). The least amount of yards that he has rushed for in a game this year is 78, while rumbling for at least 100 yards in four games. He is also a threat through the air with 24 receptions this season. WR Jordan Payton (58 catches, 839 yards, 7 TD) is Hundley’s top receiver and a nice combination of size and speed. He does a great job of making plays after the catch. The Bruins defense has a lot of playmakers, but has been inconsistent at times, ranking 79th in the nation in points allowed (27.9 PPG). LB Eric Kendricks (114 tackles, 6 TFL, 2 INT) is the leading tackler on the team by a wide margin, and he does a great job of roaming all over the field. LB Myles Jack (69 tackles, 6 TFL) has excellent speed, and he will have the task of trying to slow down Allen. Junior DB Ishmael Adams (33 tackles, 2 INT) is a playmaker at the cornerback position who also can make his presence felt in the return game.

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Posted : November 21, 2014 2:42 pm
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Pac-12 Report - Week 13
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

We've rounded the corner and are heading for home. After this weekend's slate, there is just one more regular season week left of Pac-12 action, and all the dust will have settled and we'll know where everyone is heading to play their postseason games. Seven teams are already bowl eligible, and either Stanford or California will join that list since they each play each other, battling for a sixth overall win. ORegon State could also join the club with a road win in Seattle.

Washington State at Arizona State

Arizona State heads home looking to bounce back after a loss at Oregon State, while Washington State actually beat Oregon State last time out. The Cougars are 8-3 ATS in their past 11 road games, but just 1-4 ATS in their past five conference games. The Sun Devils have struggled against the lesser teams, but they usually take care of business against winning teams. They're 5-1 ATS in their past six against teams with a losing record, and 10-3 ATS in their past 13 at home against a team with a losing road record. In this series, the favorite has cashed in 11 of the past 16 meetings, and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five. Washington State is also just 1-4 ATS in their past five trips to Arizona State.

Arizona at Utah

Arizona and Utah are battling for a better bowl bid in this game. The Wildcats are just 1-4 ATS in their past five Pac-12 games, and 1-4 ATS in their past five overall. They're also 1-6 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record. Utah have been cover kings lately, cashing in eight of their past nine against teams with a winning record. They're also 5-1 ATS in their past six conference tilts, and 5-1 ATS in their past six following a straight-up win. All series trends appear to point to Arizona, as the Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings between these sides. The underdog is also 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings, and the road team has hit in four of the past five.

Stanford at California

Not many expected 'The Game' to feature a pair of 5-5 clubs. While California probably has overachieved at some points this season to get to .500, Stanford's .500 record is an abject failure. The Cardinal are just 2-5 ATS in their past seven conference games, and 0-5 ATS in their past five road tilts. Cal has covered seven of their 10 games this season, although they are still just 3-12 ATS in their past 15 games at home. The road team has dominated the series lately, going 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. Cal enters as a six-point underdog at home.

Colorado at Oregon

The Ducks are favored by 32 1/2 points in this one, and many will be taking the home team. The Ducks are 5-0 ATS in their past five Pac-12 games, 5-0 ATS in their past five overall and 26-10-2 ATS in their past 38 against a team with a losing record. They're also coming off a bye, and they're 12-5 ATS in their past 17 after a week of rest. For Colorado, they're just 18-38 ATS in their past 56 road games, although they are an impressive 7-3 ATS in their past 10 conference tilts. The over might be a popular play, too. The over is 5-1 in Colorado's past six, 10-2 in their past 12 against a winning team, and 9-3 in their past 12 road contests. The over is 4-0-1 in Oregon's past five, 5-2 in their past seven against a losing team, and 35-15-1 in their past 51 at Autzen Stadium in Eugene. The total sits at 72 1/2.

Southern California at UCLA

Not long ago this was THE game in what was the Pac-10, and it's good to see both teams relevant in the same season to make this a marquee game again. The Trojans have had their troubles against the Bruins, covering just one of their past five trips to the Rose Bowl. The home team has cashed in eight of the past 11 meetings in this rivalry. USC is just 5-13 ATS in their past 18 road games, and 2-9 ATS in their past 11 road outings against a team with a winning home mark. UCLA is 3-7 ATS in their past 10, although they're 15-6 ATS in their past 21 home games against a team with a winning road record.

Oregon State at Washington

If there is to be any late night Pac-12 magic, it will have to come in Oregon State-Washington. This season, the final game on the conference slate has usually been a doozy. The Beavers won last week, but they're still just 1-4 ATS in their past five conference battles and 1-4 ATS in their past five overall. Washington has covered four of their past five following a straight-up loss, but they're also just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 on a field turf surface, and 1-6 ATS in their past seven following a cover. Oregon State is 17-8-1 ATS in their past 26 road games against a team with a winning home record, and they have dominated this series lately. OSU is 5-1 ATS in their past six trips to the shores of Puget Sound, and 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings with U-Dub. The dog has hit in four straight. Oregon State is currently a six-point underdog.

 
Posted : November 21, 2014 11:05 pm
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College Football Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 13
By Covers.com

(18) Marshall Thundering Herd at UAB Blazers (+20)

Marshall is tops nationally with a 30.8-point scoring margin and is the only team in the FBS to score at least 35 points in each of its games this season.

Blazers head coach Bill Clark has no reservations about how difficult this game is going to be. "They have put it on the people they have played and on some good opponents in our league. As the season has gone on, it has gotten worse," the coach said. "We should play like we have everything to gain and nothing to lose."

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at (9) Michigan State Spartans (-22)

With Rutgers traveling to Michigan State's open air, natural grass stadium this week, Scarlet Knights head coach Kyle Flood has the team practicing outside in freezing conditions. “Once you get moving around you really don’t feel it,” Flood said. “It’s only the guys standing around like the coaches that actually feel it. The players, once they get moving around, I don’t see any difference.” The forecast is calling for ice showers and temperatures hovering around freezing in East Lansing.

Balance has been the name of the game for the Spartans this season. They are averaging 245.9 yards rushing with 34 TDs and 268.1 yards passing with 21 TDs. Twelve different offensive players have scored touchdowns this season for the Spartans, including 10 with at least two touchdowns.

Charleston Southern Buccaneers at (10) Georgia Bulldogs (OTB)

Quietly the Buccaneers may be able to earn an at-large bid to the FCS playoffs. "Our guys are more comfortable and we've figured out who we are," coach Jamey Chadwell said. "We're more comfortable in who we are and what we want to do and guys believe in it. Our guys believe that it's going to work."

Under the direction of Mark Richt, Georgia owns a 54-10 SU record against teams from outside the SEC. They are 38-1 at home since 2001.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at (19) Nebraska Cornhuskers (-10.5)

The Golden Gophers are no strangers to close games this season. Two of their four Big Ten victories have been by seven or fewer points, while both of Minnesota’s conference losses have been by a touchdown or less.

"I don't want to make an excuse - because I'm not making an excuse," Nebraska coach Bo Pelini said. "sometimes our guys put so much pressure on themselves to win that they're not playing to win, they're playing not to lose."

Indiana Hoosiers at (7) Ohio State Buckeyes (-34.5)

Hoosiers RB Tevin Coleman has been near unstoppable this season averaging 167.8 rushing yards per contest. The junior back is averaging more yards on the ground per game than 67 FBS schools this season.

It may be time for J.T. Barrett to get some Heisman talk. Barrett has been responsible for at least four touchdowns in six of 10 games this season while completing 64.0 percent of his passes.

Kansas Jayhawks at (22) Oklahoma Sooners (-25)

Kansas is looking to snap several long streaks when it travels to Oklahoma. The Jayhawks have lost 28-consecutive true road games and 31 games away from Lawrence overall. Kansas' last road win came at UTEP on Sept. 12, 2009. The Jayhawks have not won a Big 12 Conference road game since defeating Iowa State on Oct. 4, 2008.

Last week, freshman Cody Thomas got his first start for the Sooners and Bob Stoops is expecting a better game this week. "I feel confident he'll even make a bigger jump this week, having been out there that whole game and having the experience of it,'' Stoops said

Washington State Cougars at Arizona State Sun Devils (-15)

Many were worried how the Cougars would play once they lost top QB Connor Halliday for last week's game. However, redshirt freshman Luke Falk stepped in and threw for 471 yards and five touchdowns.

Even though QB Taylor Kelly is back from injury, there seems to be doubt that he is fully healed. "Before the injury, I think he was moving a lot better and was able to execute the zone read stuff. I’m not sure he is 100 percent back yet," Sun Devils coach Todd Graham said.

New Mexico Lobos at (23) Colorado State Rams (-21.5)

All three of the Lobos' victories this season have come on the road. In those three victories, New Mexico is4 2-1 against the spread while only winning two games by three points each.

Rams WR Rashad Higgins has been lost in the shuffle of bigger name receivers, but the sophomore has been more dominant than any other this season. Higgins ranks first nationally in receiving yards per game (142.2) and tied for No. 1 in receiving TDs (13).

(13) Arizona Wildcats at (21) Utah Utes (-4)

Wildcats LB Scooby Wright has been nominated for the Bronko Nagurski Trophy as he should be. The sophomore is the only player in the nation to rank in the top 25 in tackles (117), tackles for loss (21), sacks (12) and forced fumbles (five).

It has been a bad year on the injury front for Utes receivers. Utah has lost both Dres Anderson, the team's leading receiver for the past two seasons, and Tim Patrick this season, both of which were team starters.

Boston College Eagles at (1) FSU Seminoles (-17)

Boston College head coach Steve Addazio has some reasoning as to why FSU has been trailing early in games. "I think that teams come out and give them their best shot early, but you have to sustain it when you play that team. You have to come out and play well and sustain it; get it to the fourth quarter and win it. No one's been able to do that."

After erasing a 16-0 deficit at Miami on Saturday night, Florida State became the first team since the 2005 UCLA Bruins to win three games after trailing by 15+ points in a single season. FSU managed to go 2-1 against the spread in those games as well.

(8) Ole Miss Rebels at Arkansas Razorbacks (+3.5)

Ole Miss is still in the running for the SEC West crown, but they will need some help. The Rebels will need to win their final two games and then needs to hope for Auburn to top Alabama next week.

The Razorbacks have been knocking on the door of being a top tier team in the SEC all season and they've finally achieved it thanks to a power run game. Arkansas' offensive line averages 328 lbs which has helped Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins tally 1818 yards and 22 touchdowns this season.

(15) Wisconsin Badgers at Iowa Hawkeyes (+10)

Though Melvin Gordon gets the headlines, it's the Badgers offensive line that is pushing the team above and beyond. "We don't want to get our names in the paper or anything like that," center Dan Voltz said. "We want to get Melvin's game in the paper. If he has a good day, we did our job."

Saturday will mark the fourth time this season the Hoosiers will face a running back ranked inside the top seven in yards per game. In the previous three they have allowed an average of 149 yards to each back with an average of 7.5 yards per carry.

Western Carolina Catamounts at (2) Alabama Crimson Tide (OTB)

WCU has managed to outscore opponents 98-55 in the first quarter this season, a huge improvement over the 29 point they scored in the first stanza during the 2013 season.

The Crimson Tide running game is still missing it's best piece as RB T.J. Yeldon was limited in practice this week and coach Nick Saban said he was "day-to-day."

Colorado Buffaloes at (3) Oregon Ducks (-32.5)

The Buffaloes may be taking to the field without arguably their best player in Sefo Liufau who is dealing with a concussion. "Sefo was able to do a little bit more (this week), but he’s still not at completely 100 cleared. We think he will be. We’ll see how that goes as the week goes along to exactly how much we do on Saturday.”

If history is any indication, than you can expect Marcus Mariota to have a large game against Colorado. The Heisman candidate has played the Buffaloes twice, throwing for 491 yards and seven touchdowns while adding three more with his feet.

Samford Bulldogs at (17) Auburn Tigers (OTB)

Bulldogs RB Denzel Williams has scored at least one rushing touchdown in all 10 of Samford's games this season. The sophomore has 16 rushing TDs on the season.

There is no hope for Aurburn to make the playoffs or the SEC Championships after a second straight loss last week. "It's dreadful because that's what our whole goal was this year, to get back being SEC champions and having a shot at the national championship," quarterback Nick Marshall said Tuesday. "But it didn't fall our way this year. We're going to finish out strong."

Oklahoma State Cowboys at (6) Baylor Bears (-28.5)

Offense continues to sputter for the Cowboys during their five game losing streak. The team is averaging 10 points per game, while QB Daxx Garman has thrown almost four times as many interceptions than touchdowns (2 TDs-to-7 INTs).

Baylor's high scoring offense has been even better at home. In the Bears past 12 home games, the team has averaged 60.25 points per game and 686 yards of offense.

(20) Missouri Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers (-3.5)

Missouri has won nine straight road games SU and ATS. The flawless road record has seen the Tigers outscore opponents by an average of 18 ppg.

With both A.J. Johnson and Michael Williams suspended due to rape allegations, the Tennessee coaches have told the players to practice as if they are going to start this week. Freshman LB Jakob Johnson will be expected to step in and man the MLB spot for the Volunteers.

Vanderbilt Commodores at (4) Mississippi State Bulldogs (-30.5)

The Commordores have more first time starters (26) than any FBS team in the nation. Vanderbilt's leading passer, rusher, receiver and tackler are first-year contributors, lending more proof to a young 'Dore squad.

“We’ve handled winning very well this season, so we’ll see how we handle this adversity at this point,” Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen said. The Bulldogs are coming off their first loss of the season against Alabama.

(24) USC Trojans at (12) UCLA Bruins (-4)

USC is averaging a Pac-12-high 9.2 penalties and saw three touchdowns called back against the Golden Bears last week.

If UCLA wants to ensure victory early, they will need to get the offense going quickly. UCLA is 21-3 under coach Jim Mora when scoring first and 23-0 when leading at halftime.

 
Posted : November 21, 2014 11:08 pm
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NCAAF Week 13

Favorites are 9-0 vs spread in Miami’s lined games this season; Hurricanes were all-out to win against Florida State last week, fell short 30-26, now hits road where they’re 1-3 SU, with only win 30-6 at Va Tech; all three of their road losses are by 11+ points. Underdogs are 8-1-1 in last 10 Miami-Virginia games; ‘canes lost 41-40/24-19 in last two visits here- dogs won SU in four of last five series games here. Cavaliers lost last four games after a 4-2 start; they’re 3-2 at home, losing 28-20 to UCLA, 28-27 to UNC- they’re 2-0 as home dogs.

Virginia Tech won/covered last four games with Wake Forest, though Wake outgained Tech 347-327 LY; Hokies won by 7-31-21 points in last three visits here. Tech lost three of last four games, with last two decided by total of three points; they’re 1-4 as a favorite this year, 3-1 SU on road with wins by 14-1-17 points- they need another win to be bowl eligible. Young Wake Forest squad lost last six games, but they’re 3-1 as home underdogs this year, with home losses by 23-6-14 points and a win over Army.

Wisconsin won four of last six games with Iowa, with three of last four wins by 4 or less points; Badgers won three of last four visits here, winning 28-9/31-30 in last two visits to Iowa City. Favorites covered Hawkeyes’ last six games; Iowa is 1-2 as a dog this year, 3-1 SU at home, losing 20-17 to Iowa State. Badgers won/covered all four games since their bye week, with all four wins by 18+ points; they’re 5-3 as favorites this year, 2-1 on road, 4-2 when laying double digits. Big 14 home underdogs are 12-9 vs spread.

Northwestern had lost four games in row before unlikely 43-40 OT win at Notre Dame last week; Wildcats can get bowl eligible with wins here and vs Illinois next week. Wildcats are 4-3 in last seven games with Purdue (three of four wins by 6 or less points), winning two of last three here, in series where road team won four of last six series games. Boilers lost last four games, allowing 38.3 ppg; they’re 1-4 SU at home, with only win 43-34 in season opener over Western Michigan, but 3-2 vs spread in games with single digit spread.

Boise State has outgained Wyoming by 307 yards/game in last four meetings; they’ve won its last eight games with Cowboys, covering last two (3-4 vs spread in last seven). Broncos won last four visits to Laramie (3-1 vs spread) with three of four wins by 20+ points. Wyoming lost five of last six games, covered two of last seven; they lost last two home games 27-20/20-3. Only one of their last four losses was by more than 14 points. Boise scored 51 ppg in last three games, but covered only two of last six games overall.

Underdogs covered five of last seven Arizona-Utah games, including all three played here; Wildcats won last two meetings by 11-10 points- they won two of last three visits here. Arizona is 8-2, losing to both LA schools; they’re 3-1 on road, losing 17-7 at UCLA. Utah won in OT at Stanford last week after getting waxed at home by Oregon the week before; Utes are 7-2 vs spread this season- six of their last seven games were decided by 3 or less points, or in OT- they lost two of last three home games.

Arizona State won nine of last ten games with Washington State, winning 46-7/55-21 last two years; Coogs lost last five visits here, losing last four by average score of 41-5. Under Graham, ASU is 5-4 vs spread in game following a loss; they’re 1-1 as home favorites this year- they were underdogs in ahlf their four home games (3-1 SU). Sun Devils allowed 31-35 points in last two games. Wazzu is 2-1 as road dog this year; they allowed average of 45.8 ppg in their last five games, losing four of them (1-4 vs spread).

Underdogs covered six of last eight USC-UCLA games, with Mora winning both his games in this rivalry, 35-14/38-28, both as underdog. Trojans won five of last seven visits to Pasadena, with underdogs covered last five series games played here. 8-2 Bruins won last four games but allowed 30+ points in three of four; both their losses were at home (Oregon/Utah)- average total in their last seven games is 63.4. USC is 3-2 on road, with four of five games decided by six or less points; they won four of last five games SU.

Underdogs covered three of last four Oregon State-Washington games, with Huskies running ball for 530 yards in 69-27 romp LY, U-Dub’s third win in last four series games. Beavers lost 20-17/35-34 in last two visits to Seattle after winning two of previous three here. OSU snapped 4-game skid with second half rally to upset ASU 35-27 last week, Beavers’ first cover in last seven games. State is 0-2 as road dog this year, losing 35-10 (+8) at USC, 38-14 (+13) at Stanford. Pac-12 home favorites are 9-14 against the spread this season.

Stanford won last four games with Cal, with three wins by 18+ points; they crushed Cal 63-13 LY and won 21-3/48-14 in last two visits here, but Cardinal lost four of last six games overall, getting outscored 88-40 in losing last three road games. Cal is 6-3 vs spread this year, scoring 30+ points in every game but one (7-31 vs Wash), but they’ve also allowed 31+ in last eight games. Golden Bears lost four of last five games, are playing in Berkeley for first time in five weeks. Pac-12 home underdogs are 9-12 against the spread.

Underdogs covered last three Ole Miss-Arkansas games; Rebels won two of last three visits here with wins by combined total of five points. Ole Miss won four of last six series games; they basically had two byes in row, playing I-AA team after Auburn loss, then a real bye last week. Rebels are 2-1 on road, beating Vandy/A&M, losing 10-7 at LSU. Hogs allowed total of 34 points in last three games, blanking LSU last week, their first SEC win in two years. Arkansas needs this win or a win at Missouri to be bowl-eligible.

Missouri beat Tennessee 51-48/31-3 last two years, gaining 956 TY in two games; Tigers won last four games after getting smoked 34-0 at Georgia Oct 11, allowing average of 16 ppg. 8-2 Mizzou somehow lost to Indiana at home, but they’re also 4-0 SU on road, scoring 36.5 ppg. Tennessee found QB in soph Dobbs; they scored 95 points in winning last two games, need one more win to be bowl eligible (they play Vandy next week). Was ready to jump on Vol bandwagon here until they had couple kids arrested earlier in week, always a red flag.

Notre Dame somehow lost in OT at home to Northwestern last week as Kelly turned into Sam Wyche with his sloppy game management; Irish lost three of last four games after 6-0 start, have allowed 42.2 ppg in last five games, including 43 in each of last two at home. Irish are 3-1 this year in games with single digit spread. Louisville scored 30+ points in each of last three games; they’re 3-2 on road, losing at Virginia/Clemson but they’ve also lost their QB for year. ACC non-conference underdogs are 7-2 vs spread, 4-2 on road.

Rest of card

-- South Alabama is 0-4-1 vs spread in its last five games; they lost 35-3 at home to Miss State earlier this year. South Carolina needs this win to get bowl eligible; their last two games went OT.
-- Ball State won eight of last nine games with Eastern Michigan; dogs are 4-2 vs spread in last six series games.
-- Michigan State is 5-1 as double digit favorite this year. Rutgers is 6-2 vs spread in last eight games; both losses were as double digit dogs.
-- Nebraska won two of last three games with Minnesota, but Gophers had 271 rushing yards LY in 34-23 win. Nebraska got shredded for 500+ rushing yards in the snow at Wisconsin last week.

-- Vandy/Miss State haven't met since '09; how do Bulldogs bounce back after loss at Alabama? Vandy covered five of last six games, is 3-0 when a road underdog this season.
-- Ohio State won its last 13 games with Indiana but Hoosiers covered last three. Indiana lost last seven visits here, six by 23+ points.
-- Michigan won three of last four games; they scored less than 20 in two of the three wins, still need one more to be bowl eligible. Maryland is 3-1 vs spread in its last four away games.
-- Oklahoma won last nine games with Kansas, which is 3-2 vs spread in last five. Sooners lost last two home games, allowing 79 points.

-- Pitt won eight of its last nine games with Syracuse, covering last five; Panthers allowed 49 ppg in last three games, are 1-7 vs spread in their last eight. Syracuse lost last three games, scoring 11 ppg.
-- Favorites covered last five Western Mich-Central Mich games; Chips won six of last eight in series, with three of last five wins by 5 or less.
-- Tulane lost last six visits to East Carolina, losing 34-13/35-12 in last two. ECU lost last two games, is 0-5 vs spread in its last five.
-- Underdogs covered six of last eight BC-Florida State games; Seminoles won 48-34/51-7 last two years. Eagles covered three of last four visits to Florida State.

-- Underdogs covered seven of last eight Penn State-Illinois games, with Lions winning last three by 7-28-3 points. PSU scored exactly 13 points in all three true road games, winning two of them.
-- Marshall won seven of last nine games with UAB, winning 56-14 in LY's game; underdogs won SU in Herd's last four visits to UAB.
-- Old Dominion lost five of last six games (0-6 vs spread); they're 0-4 vs spread at home, and allowed 35+ points in last seven overall. Louisiana Tech is 8-1 vs spread; they scored 99 points in last two games.
-- Colorado State won last four games with New Mexico, covering three; Lobos lost last three visits to Fort Collins by 4-24-14 points- they've covered last four games overall.

-- UTSA is 1-7 vs spread in last eight games, scoring total of 19 points in its last three. Western Kentucky scored 34+ points in every game but one this year; they're 2-2 as home favorites.
-- Underdogs covered three of last four Texas Tech-Iowa State tilts; Tech is 3-2 in last five visits to Ames- favorites covered four of those five.
-- Baylor averaged 56+ ppg in last 14 home games; they're 2-1 as a home favorite this year and scored 108 points in last two games. Oklahoma St is 0-5 vs spread in last five games, losing last four by 38-10 average.
-- Home side lost last four Tulsa-Houston games; underdogs covered three of Tulsa's last four visits here. Tulsa is allowing 39.6 ppg in five road games (2-2 as road dog). AAC home favorites are 6-12.

-- Oregon ran ball for 382 yards.game in winning last three games against Colorado by average score of 57-11. Buffaloes lost last six games, giving up an average of 44.5 ppg (1-2 as road dog).
-- FIU won last five games with North Texas, with four wins by 19+; Panthers won 34-10/42-10 in last two visits here, and are 3-0 vs spread on road this year, with both their road losses by a FG.
-- UL-Lafayette won its last six games, is 4-0-1 vs spread in its last five games; Ragin' Cajuns are 2-2 as home favorites this year. Appalachian State won three of its last four games, needs a win to be bowl eligible.
-- Clemson had 4-game win streak ended in ugly loss at Georgia Tech in which #1 QB was hurt, #2 QB was benched; they play South Carolina next week. Georgia State lost last three games by combined 158-52.

-- Memphis (-1.5) won 23-10 at South Florida LY, despite 6-13/59 day throwing ball. Tigers allowed 12.5 ppg in winning last four games; they are 1-2 as home favorites this year. USF scored 11.3 ppg last 3 games.
-- Middle Tennessee won last six games with FAU,. covering last five; Owls lost last four visits here, covering once. Blue Raiders ran ball for 598 yards in last two series games.
-- Favorites covered last four Cincy-UConn games; Bearcats won three in row over UConn by 25-17-8 points. Huskies lost six of last seven games, are 1-3 as home dogs. Cincy won last four games, scoring 41.8.
-- New Mexico State lost its last eight games after a 2-0 start, allowing an average of 41.3 ppg; Aggies are 1-2-1 as home dogs. ULM is 1-3 as fave this year; they lost last six games, after a 3-1 start.

-- SMU lost its last three visits to Central Florida by 25-10-14 (0-2-1 vs spread); Mustangs are 0-9, losing last week on TD with 0:04 left- they led 13-0 in 4th quarter. UCF is 3-1 as a home favorite.
-- Underdogs covered three of last four Fresno-Nevada games; Bulldogs lost 41-23/52-36 in last two series games. Fresno gained 500+ yards in last three series games; they covered five of last seven games overall.
-- Underdogs covered four of last five UNLV-Hawai'i games, with home team, winning last three. Rebels lost 48-10/42-13 in last two visits here. Mountain West home favorites are 12-13.

Armadillosports.com

 
Posted : November 21, 2014 11:10 pm
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