NCAAF Week 14
Michigan was outgained 407-158 in 24-21 (+6) loss at Iowa last week; Wolverines look slow on offense- they’ve lost eight of last nine games with Ohio State, with four of last five losses by 11+ points. Buckeyes lost last visit here when an interim coach was in charge; they’re +8 in turnovers in last four series games and have 200+ rushing yards in five of last six meetings. Ohio State’s last four wins are all by 25+ points; they’re 3-1 as road favorites, winning away games by 18-10-56-25 points, but none of those four teams will go bowling, and 70 of 128 I-A teams go bowling. Michigan lost three of last four games; they’re 5-1 at home, with only loss 17-13 to Nebraska. Underdogs are 4-3 vs spread in last four series games played here.
Duke is on a serious roll, winning last seven games, covering last six; after being 1-30 in last 31 November games before this year, they’re 3-0 this month. Duke is 4-1 vs spread as an underdog this year- they haven’t lost any game since September, but Blue Devils are 2-14 in last 16 games vs North Carolina, losing eight of last nine in series where underdog is 7-4 vs spread in last 11 games. Duke lost last four visits to Chapel Hill by 16-13-6-3 points, but they’re 4-0 SU on road this year, scoring 27 ppg. North Carolina became bowl eligible by whacking ODU 80-20 last week; Monarchs are moving up to I-A, so no big deal, but Tar Heels have won last five games, scoring 35 ppg in last four other than the ODU game.
Michigan State won last seven games, covered seven of last eight, five of last six when favored. State is 2-3 as home favorite this year, winning home games by 13-15-14-14-23 points. Spartans won their last three games with Minnesota by 16-7-23 points (29-14 average score), but they’re 1-7 vs spread last eight times they were favored to beat Gophers, who lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 7-23-34 points. Minnesota had won/covered four in row before losing at home to Wisconsin last week; Gophers are 3-1 vs spread on road, with two wins by FG each and 42-13 loss at Michigan. Spartans allowed total of six points in their last two home games. Overall, underdogs are 8-4 vs spread in series.
Georgia lost 4-year starting QB Murray (knee) last week, sad thing; his replacement is Hutson Mason, highly thought of but very inexperienced; Dawgs won 11 of last 12 games with Georgia Tech, winning last four by average score of 36-21 in series when Georgia won its last five visits here, by 14-6-14-7-17 points. Georgia is 1-7-1 vs spread in its last nine games, 2-3 SU on road this year, with all five games decided by 5 or less points; they’re 1-6-1 vs spread as a favorite, 0-3-1 on road. Tech beat a I-AA team last week, second one they played this year; they’re 3-1 at home to I-A teams, losing 17-10 to Va Tech. Jackets are 0-3 vs spread as an underdog this season. Favorites are 7-5 vs spread in last dozen series games.
Underdogs covered four of last five A&M-Missouri games, with Tigers winning five of last seven, but they lost 59-29 at A&M LY; this is Aggies’ first visit to Columbia since ’07, when teams were Big 12 rivals. A&M lost 40-26/45-22 in last two visits here; they had scored 41+ points in every game this year until rainy 34-10 loss at LSU last week, first time Manziel completed less than half his passes. Mizzou got QB Franklin back last week; they’ve won last three games, covered eight of last nine, with only loss in OT to South Carolina- they’ve allowed total of 30 points in last three games. Aggies allowed 33-38-34 points in winning two of previous three road games.
Alabama spanked Auburn 42-14/49-0 in two meetings since Cam Newton left; they’re 4-1 overall in rivalry that has seen favorites cover six of last eight games. Tide is 4-3 in last seven visits here, winning 26-21/42-14 in last two. Bama beat Texas A&M 49-42 back on Sept 14; since then, they’ve allowed total of 50 points in eight I-A games, going 5-3 vs spread. Tide is 1-2 as road favorite this year, winning away games by 7 at A&M, 48-7 at Kentucky, 20-7 at Miss State. Auburn has had dram season in Malzahn’s first as HC, going 10-1 with shaky passing game- they’ve scored 44.6 ppg in last five games- their only loss was 35-21 (+17) at LSU back on Sept 21. Tigers are 3-0 as underdogs, winning two of the three SU.
South Carolina won its last four games with Clemson, all by 10+ points; Tigers had won five of last six visits to Columbia, before losing 34-17/34-13 in last two visits here. Carolina outgained Clemson by 145 ypg in last four meetings. Tigers scored 43.5 ppg in winning all four of its road games this year, but they allowed 35-51 points in only two games this year that had single digit pointspread, 38-35 home win (+2.5) over Georgia in opener, 5-14 home loss (+3) to Florida State that is only blemish on this year’s record- they’ scored 51.7 ppg in three wins over I-A teams since then. Gamecocks are 5-0 SU at home this year, 2-3 as home favorites, winning by 17-10-7-18-5 points; five of their last seven I-A games were decided by 7 or less points.
USC won 12 of last 14 games with crosstown rival UCLA, but lost 38-28 in Pasadena LY; Bruins lost last seven visits to Coliseum (1-6 vs spread) by average score of 37-9. USC won/covered its last five games since losing at Notre Dame; they’re 3-2 as home favorites this year, winning in Coliseum by 28-3-7-16-3 points- they covered five of last seven games overall. UCLA is 3-3 in last six games after starting season 5-0; in their 38-33 home loss to ASU last week, Sun Devils ran ball for 232 yards, passed for 225; Bruins are 3-2 SU on road, 2-2 SU/ATS when a road dog. After scoring 10-14 points in losses at Stanford/Oregon, Bruins scored average of 37.5 ppg in last four games. UCLA is 4-2 vs spread this season when spread is single digits, USC is 4-3.
Favorites are 6-4-1 vs spread in last 11 Notre Dame-Stanford games; Cardinal won three of last four meetings, winning by 14-23-7 points. Notre Dame lost last two visits here by 7-14 points; they’ve won five of last six games since losing at home to Oklahoma, are 2-2 in true road games, winning at dismal Air Force/Purdue, losing 41-30 (+4) at Michigan, 28-21 (-3.5) at Pitt- they’re 1-2 as underdogs this year. Stanford pummeled rival Cal last week, after playing USC/Oregon the two weeks before that, so they could be little drained here; Cardinal are 6-0 at home, 2-2 as home favorites, winning on Farm by 21-14-3-14-6 points. Last week was first time in last six games Stanford scored more than 26 points- they’re 1-2 as double digit favorite this season.
Home side lost last four Arizona-ASU games; Wildcats won 31-27/20-17 in last two visits here, in series where underdog is 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine meetings and average total in last three is 64.0. Erratic Arizona had lost two games in row before drilling Oregon 42-16 (+19) last week, running ball for 304 yards, converting 11-16 on 3rd down, with +3 turnover margin- it was their first cover in three tries as an underdog in ’13. Arizona is 3-2 SU on road, losing by 18 at Washington, 7 at USC. ASU is 6-0 since losing to Notre Dame in Dallas; they’re 3-2 as home favorites this year, winning at home by 2-21-41-29-13 points- they’ve allowed 30+ points five times this year. Pac-12 home favorites are xx-xx against the spread this season.
Armadillosports.com
College Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Ohio State at Michigan
Huge game for Buckeyes (11-0, 6-4-1 ATS) as they look to keep hopes alive at a possible shot at the crystal football in Pasadena if they remain unscathed. Ohio State is laying some heavy lumber (-14) but letting that sway you could be costly. The Buckeyes should respond, they're on a smart 26-4-1 ATS stretch in road games facing a team with a winning record, 8-1 SU/ATS last nine vs Wolverines, 6-1 ATS last seven at the Big House.
Alabama at Auburn
The undefeated Crimson Tide (11-0, 6-4-1 ATS) in pursuit of a third straight BCS championship and fourth in five years invade Jordan-Hare Stadium to take on the once-beaten Tigers (10-1, 9-2 ATS). Alabama’s best-in-the nation scoring defense giving up 9.3 points/game on 172.6 passing, 91.3 rushing yards/game will be tested. These Tigers of Auburn can score and are a far cry from last years squad that went winless (0-8, 2-6 ATS) in SEC play and taken behind the woodshed spanked 49-0 by Saban's troops. Tigers with it's killer ground game racking up 320.3 rushing yards per behind RB Tre Mason (17 Rush TD) and duel threat QB Nick Marshall (9 Pass TD, 9 Rush TD) should give Crimson Tide a run for the money in this high-stakes affair. But in the end, Crimson Tide covering big last two meetings, 11-4 ATS laying double digits vs the Conference, 10-2 ATS as DD road favorite get the job done.
Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Afternoon Action
By Covers.com
Florida State Seminoles at Florida Gators (+27.5, 44)
The task for host Florida is simple - knock No. 2 Florida State from the ranks of the unbeaten Saturday in the annual Thanksgiving weekend matchup between the rivals. Embattled Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston seemed no worse for wear in throwing for 225 yards and four touchdowns as the Seminoles broke a school record by scoring 80 points against Idaho. The freshman has thrown for 3,163 yards and 32 touchdowns this season.
The Gators have won seven of the last nine meetings but come in off one of the worst defeats in program history against FCS program Georgia Southern. As if the losses were not enough, the Gators also will see a lot streaks come to an end this season, including 22 straight years of playing in a bowl game. The six-game losing streak is their longest in 34 years and assures them of their first losing season since 1979.
LINE: Florida State is a 27.5-point fave after opening as low as -26. The total is steady at 44
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with wind blowing across the field at 6 mph.
TRENDS:
* Seminoles are 4-0 ATS in their last four games.
* Gators are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 November games.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Florida.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Wolverines (+16, 57)
While quarterback Braxton Miller has generated a lot of the headlines around Columbus, the Buckeyes' running game ranks first in the Big Ten and fifth nationally with 314 yards per game. Carlos Hyde (1,064 yards, 13 TDs) is the first running back ever to rush for 1,000 yards under Meyer, while Miller is the school's all-time leading rusher among quarterbacks with 2,724 yards.
Michigan has lost three of its last four contests, including a 24-21 defeat to Iowa last week in which Brady Hoke's team squandered a 14-point halftime lead. Still, the Wolverines' head coach remains optimistic heading into their showdown with the Buckeyes, saying earlier this week: "I am very confident that we can win, or we wouldn't play." Michigan's defense has been inconsistent this season, but Blake Countess leads the conference with five interceptions.
LINE: Ohio State opened as a 12-point fave, but the line has been bet up to -16. The total is set at 58.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with wind blowing diagonally out of the SE at 7 mph.
TRENDS:
* Buckeyes are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win.
* Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss.
* Ohio State is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Michigan State Spartans (-16, 41)
The Golden Gophers managed only four yards rushing against the Spartans last season, but David Cobb did not get a carry. The junior has emerged in 2013 with 1,010 yards and seven of his team’s 23 touchdowns on the ground, while quarterbacks Philip Nelson and Mitch Leidner have combined for 13. Leidner has not played the past two weeks while Nelson has thrown seven touchdown passes and no interceptions over the last five.
The Spartans, who play unbeaten Ohio State for the Big Ten title and a Rose Bowl bid on Dec. 7 in Indianapolis, have shut out five of their seven league opponents in the second half. Their offense has steadily improved with Cook at the helm and three receivers – Bennie Fowler, Tony Lippett and Macgarrett Kings Jr. – making at least 30 catches.
LINE: Michigan State is currently a 16-point fave, with the total steady at 41.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with wind blowing across the length of the field at 9 mph.
TRENDS:
* Golden Gophers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 November games.
* Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games.
* Underdog is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels (-6, 60.5)
Blue Devils quarterback Anthony Boone is clicking again again after missing three games with a broken collarbone. He was less-than-spectacular upon his return, putting Brandon Connette back in the picture in a platoon role, but Boone took most of the snaps Saturday, throwing for 256 yards and three touchdowns with no turnovers or sacks.
North Carolina tight end Eric Ebron has pieced together a strong junior season, leading the team with 50 catches for 774 yards and three touchdowns. Things have gone so well for Ebron that he has decided to enter the NFL Draft next year and forego his final year of eligibility. His best game came against then-unbeaten Miami last month, when he grabbed eight passes for 199 yards and a 71-yard touchdown in the 27-23 loss.
LINE: North Carolina opened -5.5 but is up to -6. The total is set at 60.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with wind blowing diagonally out of the NE at 5 mph.
TRENDS:
* Blue Devils are 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games.
* Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS in their last six games on grass.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Auburn Tigers (+10.5, 54.5)
The early-season concerns about the Crimson Tide's defense have proven unfounded, as Alabama ranks third in the nation in total defense (263.9 yards per game) and leads the country at 9.3 points allowed per contest. The offense is often downplayed, but quarterback A.J. McCarron is enjoying another outstanding season, completing 68.6 percent of his passes for 2,399 yards with 23 touchdowns and five interceptions.
The Tigers boast the top ground game in the SEC with Tre Mason (1,153 yards, 17 TDs) and quarterback Nick Marshall (823 yards, nine TDs) leading the way, but they know they'll need to be more balanced against a tough Alabama defense. Auburn can't afford a slow start that would force it to the passing game, so the sometimes-suspect defense must slow down the Crimson Tide early.
LINE: Alabama is holding as a 10.5-point fave, while the total is 54.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with wind blowing across the field at 8 mph.
TRENDS:
* Crimson Tide are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 November games.
* Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games.
* Under is 5-0-1 in Auburn's last six games following a bye week.
Baylor Bears at TCU Horned Frogs (+13, 64.5)
The Bears were hopeful leading rusher Lache Seastrunk would be ready to return from a groin injury that kept him sidelined the previous week against Texas Tech, but he was a no-go against Oklahoma State and the running game suffered, totaling just 94 rushing yards. Making things more difficult, third-leading rusher Glasco Martin has missed the last two games with a leg injury.
B.J. Catalon is on pace to become the first TCU player to lead the team in rushing in consecutive seasons since Joseph Turner led the Horned Frogs in three straight years from 2007-09. He and sophomore Aaron Green figure to get even more carries now that third-leading rusher Waymon James is no longer on the roster, though coach Gary Patterson would not reveal why at his weekly press conference Monday.
LINE: Baylor opened at -13 while the total is up a half-point to 64.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with wind blowing out of the SW at 7 mph.
TRENDS:
* Bears are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games.
* Horned Frogs are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a bye week.
* Under is 9-2 in TCU's last 11 conference games.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Wisconsin Badgers (-24.5, 49.5)
Zach Zwinak had 149 rushing yards in last Saturday’s 23-20 loss to Nebraska and has put together three consecutive 100-yard outings to push his season total to 874 yards. Freshman quarterback Christian Hackenberg has fared well with 2,616 yards – fifth most in school history – and has 16 touchdown passes against 10 interceptions.
A strong defense that ranks fifth in scoring defense (13.4) and sixth in total defense (278.5) complements the rushing attack that is 34 yards away from surpassing last season’s school record for rushing yards (3,309). Star linebacker Chris Borland is eight tackles away from his third consecutive 100-tackle campaign and ranks sixth in school history with 400 stops while equaling the Big Ten record with 14 career forced fumbles.
LINE: Wisconsin is a 24.5-point fave after opening at -23.5. The total is set at 49 1/2.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with wind blowing diagonally out of the SW at 7 mph.
TRENDS:
* Nittany Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a SU loss.
* Badgers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games on fieldturf.
* Favorite is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.
Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Evening Action
By Covers.com
Clemson Tigers at South Carolina Gamecocks (-5.5, 58)
The Tigers are flying on offense since scoring just 14 points in the loss to Florida State, averaging 51.5 points during their four-game winning streak. Quarterback Tajh Boyd threw five touchdown passes in last week’s 52-6 rout of The Citadel, giving him 102 for his career. Clemson ranks 18th nationally in scoring defense (20.2) and defensive end Vic Beasley is tied for second in the ACC with 10 sacks.
The Gamecocks have allowed 54 points during their four-game winning streak, 24 of those coming in a two-overtime victory at Missouri, and are 17th nationally in passing yards allowed per game (200.7). Jadeveon Clowney had 4.5 sacks in last season’s 27-17 victory at Clemson. South Carolina averages 465.8 yards of total offense and need 375 yards to match the school record of 5,499 yards set in 2010.
LINE: Clemson has dropped a half-point from its -6 opener, while the total is set at 58.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-40s with partly cloudy skies.
TRENDS:
* Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. teams with winning records.
* Gamecocks are 6-1 in their last seven games vs. ACC opponents.
* Under is 5-0 at South Carolina in its last five games vs. the ACC.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Stanford Cardinal (-14.5, 49)
Stanford has one of the nation's top rushing defenses, but Notre Dame is coming off a 235-yard rushing performance highlighted by Cam McDaniel's career-high 117. Last week's win against BYU was played in temperatures in the 20s with swirling winds and intermittent snow, but Irish quarterback Tommy Rees still threw for 235 yards and a touchdown in his final home game.
Cardinal quarterback Kevin Hogan has yet to complete 20 passes in a game this season, but he is 14-2 as a starter for his career, including an 8-0 mark against ranked opponents. Of course, it helps to have a weapon like Ty Montgomery, who matched the school record with five touchdowns in last week's win against Cal. "It's awesome," Hogan said, "just getting him the ball and he makes me look good."
LINE: Stanford is a 14.5-point favorite after opening at -14. The total is steady at 49.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with clear skies.
TRENDS:
* Fighting Irish are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games following a SU win.
* Cardinal are 22-3-1 ATS in their last 26 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous contest.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri Tigers (-5, 66.5)
Johnny Manziel has dropped down in the Heisman discussion after his poor performance against LSU, but that doesn’t mean Missouri shouldn’t be afraid of what the Aggies signal caller can do. He put up 439 total yards and five touchdowns a year ago against the Tigers in a 59-29 rout that all but sealed his Heisman campaign. That seems like a long time ago for an Aggies' team that is allowing a league-high 460.1 yards per game.
For a Missouri program that has been defined by its offense in the Gary Pinkel era, the Tigers have been led by their defense this year. The pass rush leads the SEC with 35 sacks, 10 of which belong to defensive end Michael Sam, also a league high. Offensively, quarterback James Franklin proved himself healthy last week against Ole Miss, throwing for 142 yards and rushing for 42 after missing four games with a shoulder injury.
LINE: Missouri has jumped from a 4.5-point to a 5-point fave. The total is steady at 66.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-40s with partly cloudy skies.
TRENDS:
* Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss.
* Tigers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
UCLA Bruins at USC Trojans (-3.5, 51.5)
Brett Hundley has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 24 of his 25 career games, including all 11 contests this season, and has completed 70.1 percent of his passes over the last four games. The Bruins' defense has been a terror in the third quarter this season, holding its opponents to a total of 34 points. Overall, 20 points continues to be the magic number for UCLA, as the Bruins have won 20 straight games when holding their opponent under 20.
USC will be honoring 20 seniors, although the Trojans are fortunate that Javorius Allen (439 rushing yards, nine TDs in his last four games) is not among them and will be back in 2014. Fellow sophomore Cody Kessler has not thrown for 300 yards in any game this season, but he has nine touchdown passes against only two interceptions over his last seven games.
LINE: UCLA is a steady 3.5-point fave, with the total up a half-point to 51.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with wind blowing across the field at 6 mph.
TRENDS:
* Bruins are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.
* Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games.
* Home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Arizona Wildcats at Arizona State Sun Devils (-11.5, 60.5)
Arizona's Ka'Deem Carey rushed for 206 yards and scored a touchdown in each quarter in last week's win over the Ducks. Carey, on the Heisman radar, has 1,559 yards and 16 TDs on the season and has rushed for over 100 yards in 14 straight games. Quarterback B.J. Denker had a career day last week completing 19-of-22 passes for 189 yards while rushing for another 102 as the Wildcats snapped a two-game losing streak.
The Sun Devils have won six straight and are 6-0 at home this year with an average margin of victory of 26.8 points per game. Marion Grice, who is four yards shy of 1,000 on the season, left last week's game against UCLA on crutches and is questionable. If he can't go, the nation's 10th-highest scoring offense (41.9 points) is still confident in backups Deantre Lewis and D.J. Foster.
LINE: The opening line of Arizona State -12 has been bet down to -11.5. The total is set at 60 1/2.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with clear skies.
TRENDS:
* Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a SU win.
* Sun Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on grass.
* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings at Arizona State.
Saturday's Rivalry Games
By Sportsbook.ag
UCLA BRUINS (8-3) at USC TROJANS (9-3)
Sportsbook.ag Line USC -3.5, Total: 51.5
No. 22 UCLA looks to bounce back from last week’s loss as it takes on its inner-city rival, No. 23 USC, on Saturday night.
Last year when these two teams matched up, it was the Bruins who were able to get the 38-28 victory. The win helped push UCLA to the Pac-12 championship game, while the Trojans finished a disappointing season after being billed as the No. 1 team in the preseason. Even though UCLA is no longer in the conference title race, the Bruins are still a very talented team that can reach double-figures in victories. QB Brett Hundley (2,637 pass yards, 22 TD, 68% completions) is a great quarterback, but he still has moments where he makes big mistakes. If he is able to limit the turnovers on Saturday against a very talented USC defense, (20.2 PPG allowed, 17th in FBS), then the Bruins will have a good chance to win the game. However, they have really struggled on the road, going 0-5 ATS in their past five road games. The USC season appeared to be headed on a downward spiral after getting blown out by Arizona State, which led to the firing of head coach Lane Kiffin. However, interim coach Ed Orgeron has stepped in and proven himself deserving to be named full-time coach. The Trojans are 6-1 on the season under Orgeron, and sophomore QB Cody Kessler (2,449 pass yards, 15 TD, 65% completions) has really started to thrive under his new coach's direction. The Trojans have been terrific during their past five games, going 4-1 ATS and winning those games by an average of 17.6 PPG.
The Bruins' offense enters the game ranked 27th in the nation in scoring with 36.6 points per game. However, in its past three road games, UCLA has averaged only 18.3 PPG. After having to deal with injuries throughout the season at the running back position, head coach Jim Mora moved Myles Jack from linebacker to running back, and the results have been great, with Jack racking up 265 rushing yards and six touchdowns. At the wide receiver position, Shaquelle Evans (42 catches, 604 yards, 8 TD) has been Hundley’s go-to receiver all season, giving the Bruins a big-play threat on offense. On the defensive side of the ball, UCLA has allowed 25.0 PPG this season, but has one of the elite defensive players in the country in LB Anthony Barr. At 6-foot-4 and 248 pounds, Barr (52 tackles, 8 sacks) has terrific size for his position, but his speed and athleticism are what separates him from other linebackers in the country. While Cody Kessler is playing much better at quarterback for USC, Barr has the ability to single-handedly disrupt an offense with his pressure. Look for the Trojans to run the ball at him early, trying to get him to have to do more than just rush the quarterback.
Sophomore RB Javorius Allen (576 rush yards, 6.5 YPC, 11 TD) has became the go-to ball carrier for the Trojans, rushing for at least 133 yards in three of the past four games. At 215 pounds, he is the type of running back that can wear down the opponent, and by the time the fourth quarter rolls around, he is nearly impossible to tackle. The Trojans also have one of the most talented receivers in all of the country in WR Marqise Lee (44 catches, 604 yards, 2 TD). While the numbers are not close to what they were last season when he gained 1,721 yards with 14 scores, Lee is still one of the most dangerous receivers in the country. Opposing defenses have double-teamed Lee on a consistent basis the entire season, and the Trojans offense has been able to open up the past few weeks. If Kessler is able to get time to throw the ball, Lee will have some opportunities to make the big play. While Orgeron deserves a ton of the credit for the improvement of the Trojans offense, the defense has been very good for USC as well, allowing just 337 total YPG, including only 290 YPG at home. Junior S Dion Bailey (53 tackles, 5 INT) has proven to be as talented of a player in the secondary as there is in the Pac-12. Look for Bailey to do a little of everything, which could also include spying on quarterback Brett Hundley.
NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (8-3) at STANFORD CARDINAL (9-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line Stanford -14.5, Total: 49
Looking to avenge a loss to the Fighting Irish from last season, No. 8 Stanford will finish the regular season against a newly-ranked No. 25 Notre Dame squad seeking its second win against a ranked opponent this season.
Stanford is coming off a 63-13 thumping of California, rebounding strongly after a stunning loss to USC the week before. With the win, the Cardinal improved to 4-1 (SU and ATS) in their past five games. Overall, they are 6-5 ATS, with a 4-2 mark at home. Notre Dame upset BYU 23-13 last week as a three-point underdog on the road to move to 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in its past six games. The Irish are 4-6-1 overall ATS, while that win was their first cover on the road, where they are 1-3 ATS. They are also 1-2 (SU and ATS) this season against ranked foes, with the lone win and cover coming against Arizona State. They also notably beat USC while they were unranked. While Notre Dame won last year’s matchup between these two teams, Stanford covered the nine-point spread in the 20-13 overtime contest. And with the Cardinal winning the two previous matchups, they are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS over the past three years. And this could be another big game for the Stanford passing attack, as the Cardinal are 13-2 ATS over the past three seasons against poor passing defenses.
Notre Dame QB Tommy Rees was a hero in last year’s win against Stanford, coming in for overtime and going 4-for-4 including the game-winning TD. This year he’s been called upon often and thrown for an impressive 2,739 yards, 25 TD and 11 INT. However, he has just a 54.5% completion rate. On the ground, Cam McDaniel (603 rush yards, 4.6 YPC, 3 TD) and George Atkinson III (554 rush yards, 6.2 YPC, 3 TD) lead the way. Rees’ top target has been TJ Jones (986 rec. yards, 16.7 avg., 8 TD). He caught four passes for 52 yards in last year’s contest, including the overtime score. DaVaris Daniels (641 rec. yards, 15.6 avg., 6 TD) has also been a top-notch receiving threat. The Notre Dame defense has been solid this year, giving up only 22.5 PPG on 4.1 YPC on the ground and 60.4% passing. The Irish will look to replicate last year when they limited Stanford to 125 passing yards, 0 TD and 2 INT with just 3.7 YPC on the ground.
As those numbers show, Josh Nunes struggled against the Fighting Irish defense last year, but QB Kevin Hogan is under center this season. He’s completing 61% of his passes for 18 TD and 7 INT, totaling 2,052 yards. He tossed five touchdowns against Cal last week, snapping a three-week stretch in which he didn’t find the end zone at all. In that span, he was picked off twice, both in the loss to USC. His favorite target without a doubt has been Ty Montgomery (822 rec. yards, 16.4 avg., 9 TD), who caught four of those scores against the Golden Bears. RB Tyler Gaffney also leads a strong Cardinal rushing attack, scoring 16 times on 1,296 yards and 5.2 YPC. The Cardinal defense gives up 18.9 PPG (13th in FBS), and most of that is because of the front seven that gives up a stingy 3.0 YPC. Stanford has also forced at least one turnover in every game this season, but has not generated more than two takeaways in any 2013 contest.
CLEMSON TIGERS (10-1) at SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (9-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line South Carolina -5, Total: 58
In an intra-state rivalry that pits two top-10 teams against each other will resume on Saturday night with both No. 6 Clemson and No. 10 South Carolina looking to finish the season with a high-profile win heading into the bowl selection process.
The Tigers have gone 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) since they got thumped 51-14 by Florida State for their only loss of the season. Clemson is 6-4-1 ATS this season and 2-1-1 ATS on the road, and has been an underdog twice, losing to FSU but beating Georgia in the first week of the season. The Gamecocks are 5-6 ATS this season and also 3-1 ATS since their last loss, which came at the hands of Tennessee. Their current four-game win streak started with an impressive win at Missouri. With a 27-17 victory against Clemson last season, South Carolina improved to 4-0 (SU and ATS) in the past four meetings between these two powerhouses. And over the past 10 seasons, home favorites of between 3.5 and 10 points are 73-34 ATS (68%) coming off a win by 35 or more points, like the Gamecocks after beating Coastal Carolina 70-10 last week. But over the past three years, Clemson is 8-0 ATS after three consecutive games of committing less than two turnovers.
Clemson QB Tajh Boyd struggled last year against the Gamecocks defense, completing only 11-of-24 passes while throwing two picks and only one touchdown. He also carried the ball 17 times for only 26 yards, though he added a rushing score. However, he has led a tremendous Clemson offense this year that’s averaging 42.3 PPG. Boyd has completed 67.3% of his passes for 3,248 yards, 29 TD and 7 INT. His go-to weapon is future NFL player WR Sammy Watkins (1,144 rec. yards, 10 TD). In last year’s loss to South Carolina, Watkins caught only four balls for 37 yards. Boyd is the main focus of the offense but the Gamecocks shouldn’t sleep on RB Roderick McDowell, who has 845 rushing yards on 5.2 YPC. Boyd likes to take it himself too, adding eight rushing touchdowns despite averaging only 2.2 YPC. The Tigers defense hasn’t been bad either, giving up just 20.2 PPG, only faltering in the loss to the Seminoles. The unit gives up 3.8 YPC and a completion rate of just 52.3%.
QB Connor Shaw has been ridiculously efficient as the Gamecocks signal caller this year, throwing for 20 TD and only one interception. He has completed 61.8% of his passes for 1,983 yards, averaging 8.5 yards per attempt. Shaw can run too, accumulating 417 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground. But sophomore RB Mike Davis is the team’s primary ball carrier, rushing for 1,112 yards on 6.2 YPC. Davis has 10 rushing scores and also ranks second on the team with 30 receptions. The team’s top receivers, though have been WRs Bruce Ellington (584 rec. yards, 6 TD) and Damiere Byrd (549 rec. yards, 4 TD). And the defense, highlighted by star DE Jadeveon Clowney, gives up 4.0 YPC and 7.0 yards per pass attempt.
OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (11-0) at MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (7-4)
Sportsbook.ag Line Ohio State -14.5, Total: 58
No. 3 Ohio State is one game away from going undefeated in the regular season for a second straight year, but to achieve this feat, it must knock off rival Michigan at the Big House on Saturday afternoon.
This has always been one of the fiercest rivalries in the country, and the Buckeyes won a wild game last season by a score of 26-21. However, the two teams are going different directions this season, as the Buckeyes (6-4-1 ATS) still have a realistic chance of playing in the national championship. QB Braxton Miller (1,626 pass yards, 19 TD, 4 INT) has continued to improve throughout the season, and is playing as well as any quarterback in the country. Miller gets a lot of the talk for good reason, but RB Carlos Hyde (1,064 rush yards, 13 TD) has been a star this season. The balance on the offensive end has made the Buckeyes' offense nearly impossible to slow down, and they look to carry that momentum against their rivals up north. The Wolverines got off to a great start in 2013, winning six of their first seven games with the only blemish being a quadruple overtime loss to Penn State. However, things have spiraled down hill as of late, as they have lost three of their past four games. A large reason is because of their inability to score, as they have posted only 49 points over their past four games. That offense is also the same reason why the past four Wolverines games have finished Under the total. Michigan QB Devin Gardner (2,509 pass yards, 17 TD, 11 INT) has had some highlight moments, but has been too inconsistent throughout the season. Ohio State, which is 11-3 ATS when facing a winning team since the start of 2011, cannot afford to overlook Michigan, which is 6-0 ATS after gaining 125 passing yards or less in its last game in this same timeframe.
Urban Meyer has put the Buckeyes back on the map as one of the best teams in the country, having been able to bring in more speed to the Ohio State program. The offense currently ranks third in the nation in scoring (48.7 PPG) and fifth in rushing yards (314.7 YPG). RB Carlos Hyde destroyed Michigan in last year's win, piling up 146 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries (5.6 YPC). QB Braxton Miller added 57 yards on the ground versus the Wolverines and was very efficient through the air too, completing 14-of-18 throws for 189 yards (10.5 YPA), 1 TD and 0 INT. Wide receiver Devin Smith (40 catches, 591 yards, 7 TD) has the ability to make the big play at any given moment. Earlier this season against California, he caught a 90-yard touchdown, showcasing elite speed and playmaking ability. Smith is also a great route runner that complements QB Braxton Miller’s scrambling ability very well. The offense has been terrific the entire season, but the defense has struggled at times. Although the Buckeyes allow just 18.4 PPG (8th FBS), they have been susceptible to giving up the big play through the air. However, CB Bradley Roby (54 tackles, 3 INT) is one of the most talented defensive backs in all of the country. He does a great job of playing against the run, but has the speed and athleticism to blanket wide receivers. The one weakness that he and the rest of the secondary have had is too often going for the big play, and in turn, giving up a lot of yards. That could be a problem as the Wolverines, despite their struggles, have a big-time home run threat at wide receiver in Jeremy Gallon.
Gallon (71 catches, 1,109 yards, 8 TD) has been the most consistent player for the Wolverines offense this season. On Oct. 19 against Indiana, he set a Big Ten record with 369 receiving yards, showing he can take over a game. He is not the biggest target at 5-foot-8 and 187 pounds, but he is not afraid to go over the middle and make the tough catch. In last year's loss to OSU, he caught six passes for 67 yards. For the Wolverines to stay in this game, they are going to have to get big contributions from RB Fitzgerald Toussaint (613 rush yards, 11 TD) who has been nearly non-existent in his past three games (all losses) with 23 carries for 38 yards. He must get back to his early season form for the Wolverines to have any chance of pulling off the upset, and the defense must also put forth a huge effort. The Michigan defense currently ranks 52nd in the country in points allowed (25.1 PPG), but has played much better as of late. Junior DB Blake Countess (43 tackles, 5 INT) has the ability to shut down the opposing team’s best receiver, which in this case will be Devin Smith. If Countess is able to contain Smith, that will go a long way towards the Wolverines spoiling their rival's dream season.
Games to Watch - Week 14
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Ohio State at Michigan – As of late Tuesday morning, most books had Ohio State (11-0 straight up, 6-4-1 against the spread) installed as a 14.5-point road favorite. The Buckeyes have won eight of the last nine head-to-head meetings against their arch rivals both SU and ATS, including last season’s 26-21 triumph as four-point home favorites. Since Urban Meyer took over before the 2012 campaign, Ohio State owns a 3-2 spread record in five games as a road favorite. OSU has failed to cover the spread in back-to-back games, including Saturday’s 42-14 win over Indiana as a 33.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Michigan (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) has played three straight nail-biters. Three weeks ago, the Wolverines gave up a late touchdown to lose a 17-13 decision to Nebraska. Two weeks ago, they beat Northwestern 27-19 in triple overtime as 2.5-point underdogs.
Brady Hoke’s squad needed a hastily attempted 44-yard field goal as time expired to force the extra sessions in Evanston. In Iowa City this past weekend, Michigan lost 24-21 to Iowa but hooked up its backers as six-point road underdogs. This is only the second time Michigan has been a home ‘dog during Hoke’s three-year tenure. In 2011, the Wolverines dropped Notre Dame 35-31 as 3.5-point home puppies thanks to the late-game heroics of Denard Robinson. Senior QB Braxton Miller is the catalyst for the Buckeyes. He has a 19/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has rushed for 738 yards and five TDs. Michigan junior QB Devin Gardner has had an up-and-down season. Gardner has a 17/11 TD-INT ratio and 10 rushing scores. The ‘over’ is 7-4 for Ohio State, 3-1 in its four road assignments. The ‘under’ is 6-5 overall for Michigan, but the ‘over’ is 4-2 in its home games. The Wolverines have seen the ‘under’ cash in four consecutive contests (regardless of venue). Kickoff is scheduled for noon Eastern on ESPN.
Florida State at Florida – Due to the uncertain status of FSU quarterback Jameis Winston, there was no line as of late Tuesday morning. However, the Associated Press reported on Saturday that a decision on whether or not to press charges against Winston for an alleged sexual assault won’t happen before Thanksgiving. Therefore, bettors should expect Winston to start at The Swamp. FSU (11-0 SU, 9-2 ATS) is enjoying its best season in 13 years. Winston has been the key, completing 69.6 percent of his passes for 3,163 yards with a 32/7 TD-INT ratio. Florida (4-7 SU, 3-8 ATS) is coming off perhaps its most embarrassing loss in school history, a 26-20 defeat against Georgia Southern as a 28-point home favorite. The Gators have lost six in a row and are going to have their first losing season since 1979. Their only win over a team with a winning record came vs. Toledo in the season opener.
Junior QB Tyler Murphy remains ‘questionable’ with a shoulder injury, so Skyler Mornhinweg will probably get his third career start. In his first two games, Mornhinweg has a pair of TD passes and one interception. UF’s offense has been downright abysmal all season, averaging only 19.9 points per game. FSU is second in the nation in scoring offense (55.2 PPG) and scoring defense (11.2 PPG). The ‘over’ is 10-1 overall for the ‘Noles, 4-0 in their road games. The ‘under’ is 6-4-1 overall for UF, but the ‘over’ is 3-2-1 in its home games. When these teams met in Tallahassee last year, Florida captured a 37-26 win as a seven-point underdog. ESPN will have television coverage at noon Eastern.
Georgia at Georgia Tech – The Aaron Murray Era at UGA ended this past Saturday when the senior QB tore his ACL during a 59-17 home win over Kentucky. Murray threw 26 TD passes compared to six interceptions during his last season in Athens. For his career, he had a 121/41 TD-INT ratio and 16 rushing scores. Hutson Mason will get his first career start Saturday on The Flats in Midtown Atlanta. Mason, a product of Lassiter High School about 25 miles north of the Georgia Tech campus, is a fourth-year junior with a 5/1 TD-INT ratio in his collegiate career. He will become the first UGA quarterback other than Murray to start under center since Joe Cox got the nod against Texas A&M in the 2009 Independence Bowl. Look for offensive coordinator Mike Bobo to lean on sophomore workhorse RB Todd Gurley even more without Murray. Despite missing 3.5 games with a severely sprained ankle, Gurley has still rushed for 781 yards and seven TDs while averaging 6.3 yards per carry.
Georgia Tech (7-4 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) has won four of its last five games, but it is mired in a 2-5-1 ATS slump. Paul Johnson led his team to a 45-42 come-from-behind win over UGA in Athens in 2008, which was his first game in this storied rivalry. Since then, the Bulldogs have won four in a row, including a 42-10 win as 14.5-point home ‘chalk’ at Sanford Stadium last year. Gurley ran for 97 yards and two TDs on just 12 carries. The ‘over’ is 8-3 overall for UGA, 3-2 in its road games. The ‘over’ is 7-4 overall for the Yellow Jackets, 3-3 in their home contests. The ‘over’ has hit at a 6-1 clip in Georgia Tech’s last seven games. Kickoff on ABC is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
Clemson at South Carolina – As of late Tuesday morning, most books had South Carolina (9-2 SU, 5-6 ATS) favored by 4.5. South Carolina senior QB Connor Shaw has never lost a home game in his career. Due to a foot injury, Shaw was unable to go in last year’s regular-season finale when Dylan Thompson threw for 310 yards and three TD passes in a 27-17 win at Clemson. Thompson’s counterpart, QB Tajh Boyd, was intercepted twice and had just 183 passing yards. The Gamecocks, who have won four in a row over the Tigers by margins of 17, 22, 21 and 10 points, limited Sammy Watkins to four catches for only 37 yards. Steve Spurrier’s team will win its second SEC East title in school history if Texas A&M wins Saturday at Missouri. Shaw has had a spectacular season, throwing 20 TD passes and just one interception. He has also rushed for 417 yards and four TDs.
Mike Davis has enjoyed a breakout campaign by running for 1,112 yards and 10 TDs. Davis sat out last week’s 70-10 win over Coastal Carolina, but he could’ve played if it were a more important game and will start Saturday. Clemson (10-1 SU, 6-5 ATS) has won four in a row, going 3-1 ATS, since suffering its lone defeat at home against FSU by a 51-14 count. The Tigers are led by Boyd, the senior QB who has thrown for 3,248 yards with a 29/7 TD-INT ratio. Watkins, his favorite target, has hauled in 78 receptions for 1,144 yards and 10 TDs. Clemson owns a 7-3 spread record in 10 games as a road underdog since Dabo Swinney took over midway through the 2008 season. The ‘under’ is 6-5 overall for South Carolina, 3-3 in its home games. The ‘over’ is 7-4 for Clemson, 2-2 in its road assignments. ESPN2 will have television coverage at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
Texas A&M at Missouri – As of late Tuesday morning, most spots had Missouri (10-1 SU, 9-1-1 ATS) installed as a 4.5-point ‘chalk.’ The Tigers can clinch the SEC East with a win and would then meet the Auburn-Alabama winner at the Georgia Dome next weekend. After missing four consecutive games with a separated shoulder, senior QB James Franklin returned last Saturday to lead his team to a 24-10 win at Ole Miss as a three-point road favorite. Franklin completed 12-of-19 passes for 142 yards in frigid temperatures. He also ran for 42 yards on eight totes, while Henry Josey produced 95 rushing yards and two TDs on 15 carries. Franklin has a 14/4 TD-INT ratio and three rushing scores. Josey has rushed for a team-high 855 yards and 12 TDs while averaging 6.1 YPC. Gary Pinkel’s team has won its 10 games by margins of 14 points or more.
Texas A&M (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) saw its three-game winning streak snapped in a 34-10 loss at LSU last weekend as a 3.5-point underdog. For a second straight year, LSU defensive coordinator John Chavis stymied Johnny Manziel for four quarters. Manziel completed just 16-of-41 throws for 224 yards and was intercepted twice. However, he still has a 32/13 TD-INT ratio for the season. The Aggies, who are 0-3 ATS on the road this year, gave up 324 rushing yards to LSU. The ‘over’ is 6-5 for Mizzou, but the ‘under’ is 4-2 in its home games. The ‘over’ is 8-3 overall for the Aggies, 2-1 in their road assignments. When these schools met last season, Texas A&M cruised to a 59-29 win as a 23-point home favorite. Manziel threw for 372 yards and three TDs and also ran for a pair of scores. Kickoff is slated for 7:45 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.