College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, November 8

Lookin Ahead to Week 11
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

There are four monster Week 11 games looming next weekend, with all of them impacting the race to garner invites to the inaugural College Football Playoff. Sportsbook.ag already has lines on these contests, so bettors get down on these games right now.

Alabama at LSU

Let's start with Alabama at LSU in Baton Rouge. The offshore shop has 'Bama installed as a 7.5-point road favorite. After easily getting ahead of the number in a Week 9 win at Tennessee, the Crimson Tide allowed the Volunteers to rally and take the cash as 20-point home underdogs in a 34-20 loss.

Nick Saban's team has struggled badly in road 'chalk' roles recently, limping to a 1-7 spread record in its last eight such spots. Alabama is 0-3 versus the number in three road assignments this year, failing to cover at Ole Miss, at Arkansas and at Tennessee.

LSU has lost three in a row to 'Bama, including last year's 38-17 setback in Tuscaloosa in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated. The Tide covered the spread as an 11-point home favorite.

When these teams collided in Baton Rouge in 2012 with first place in the SEC West at stake, 'Bama won a 21-17 decision thanks to a clutch drive in the final two minutes. With less than a minute remaining on third down inside LSU territory, A.J. McCarron hit T.J. Yeldon on a screen pass with LSU blitzing and the then-freshman running back took it to the house for the game-winning score. The Tigers took the money, however, as 8.5-point underdogs.

With last week's 10-7 win over Ole Miss as a three-point home underdog, LSU improved to 7-2 both straight up and against the spread. The Tigers have won three straight and four of its last five both SU and ATS. During Les Miles's 10-year tenure, they are now 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS as home 'dogs.

Both teams have an open date to get ready for Saturday's prime-time matchup under the lights at Tiger Stadium.

Ohio State at Michigan State

Sportsbook has Michigan State listed as a 3.5-point home favorite vs. Ohio State. The Spartans have won six in a row, while going 4-2 ATS, since suffering their only loss at Oregon back in Week 2. They have an open date to prep for the Buckeyes after spanking in-state rival Michigan by a 35-11 count in East Lansing.

With the addition of Maryland and Rutgers into the Big Ten, these teams reside in the same division (East) unlike last season. They collided in the Big Ten Championship Game last season, with Mark Dantonio's team handing Ohio St. its first loss of the Urban Meyer Era. Michigan St. won 34-24 as a five-point underdog.

In 2012, Ohio St. escaped Spartan Stadium with a 17-16 victory as a 2.5-point road underdog. That same season, the Buckeyes won 21-14 at Wisconsin as 2.5-point puppies. Those are the only two previous occasions in which Meyer's squad has been an underdog on his watch.

Michigan St. is 4-1 ATS as a home 'chalk' this year. The lone non-cover came in a 27-22 win over Nebraska when the Cornhuskers rallied from a 27-3 deficit in the final stanza to post the backdoor cover catching 6.5 points.

While Michigan St. has an open date this weekend, Ohio St. falls into a look-ahead situation at home vs. Illinois.

Baylor at Oklahoma

Sportsbook has Oklahoma favored by three vs. Baylor for their showdown in Norman. Both schools had open dates this past weekend and are back on the field Saturday. The Bears host Kansas and the Sooners venture to Ames for a battle against Iowa St.

Bob Stoops's squad will be in revenge mode after getting smashed 41-16 as a 16.5-point road underdog in Waco last year. Baylor has won two of the last three head-to-head meetings, covering the spread in all three of those contests.

OU, which has lost two of its last three games, is in the rare role of spoiler here. The Sooners saw its hopes of going to the College Football Playoff almost certainly dashed in their 31-30 home loss to Kansas St. on Oct. 18.

Baylor remains in the mix but undoubtedly has to win out. To do so, Art Briles's team will have to win in Norman for the first time ever.

Baylor hasn't been an underdog in 21 consecutive games if we can count this week's 'chalk' spot vs. KU. The Bears were last 'dogs in the 2012 Holiday Bowl when they crushed UCLA, 49-26. They are 7-1 ATS with four outright victories in their last eight games as 'dogs.

Notre Dame at Arizona State

Sportsbook has Arizona State tabbed as a two-point home favorite vs. Notre Dame. The Sun Devils will be looking to avenge a 37-34 loss to the Fighting Irish at Jerry World in Arlington last season.

Todd Graham's team has three remaining games against one-loss schools and controls its destiny to get to the Pac-12 Championship Game. In other words, ASU will find itself in the College Football Playoff if it wins the rest of its games.

The same can be said for Brian Kelly's team, which closes the regular season at Southern Cal. It also hosts Louisville in South Bend in a game that will become bigger if U of L can upset unbeaten Florida St. on Thursday night.

Notre Dame owns a 6-2 spread record in eight games as a road 'dog during Kelly's tenure. Meanwhile, ASU is 9-5 ATS as a home favorite on Graham's watch.

ASU has a huge game in Tempe this weekend against Utah, while Notre Dame is in Landover to face Navy.

Top 25 Betting Recap - Week 10
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com

Week 10 of the 2014 NCAA football betting season is in the books, and today, we're going to be taking a look at each of the Top 25 teams in the rankings and see how they did from an ATS perspective in this go around this past week.

(Results in parentheses represent SU Result-ATS Result)

1: Mississippi State (W-L vs. Arkansas 17-10)
The Dogs really had to fight to stay undefeated this week, and they look like they are about set to run out of magic.

2: Florida State (W-W vs. Louisville 42-31)
The Seminoles found themselves out of more trouble this week, coming back from down three TDs to beat the Cards.

3: Auburn (W-W vs. Ole Miss 35-31)
The Tigers are now owners of the two best road wins in the land this year at Kansas State and Ole Miss.

4: Ole Miss (L-L vs. Auburn 35-31)
It will be interesting to see whether Ole Miss has any shot of getting back into the playoff mix now. Probably not.

5: Oregon (W-W vs. Stanford 45-16)
Marcus Mariota has finally broken the hex and found a way to beat Stanford.

6: Alabama (Bye)

7: TCU (W-L vs. West Virginia 31-30)
Forcing five turnovers and kicking a field goal at the gun is all that kept TCU's playoff hopes alive.

8: Michigan State (Bye)

9: Kansas State (W-W vs. Oklahoma State 48-14)
All of a sudden, if the Wildcats win next week in Fort Worth, they can run away from the Big XII.

10: Notre Dame (W-L vs. Navy 49-39)
That's three straight games in which the Notre Dame defense has really struggled badly.

11: Georgia (L-L vs. Florida 38-20)
Mark Richt went from having his team on the verge of the playoffs to being on the verge of being out of a job.

12: Arizona (L-L vs. UCLA 17-7)
The farce known as Arizona is said and done with after the Wildcats were smacked at the Rose Bowl.

13: Baylor (W-W vs. Kansas 60-14)
Baylor is the forgotten team in the Big XII this year, but it is going to need some help to win the conference from here.

14: Arizona State (W-L vs. Utah 19-16)
The Sun Devils were able to crack the code of the Utes in close games.

15: Nebraska (W-P vs. Purdue 35-14)
Ameer Abdullah was hurt against Purdue, and that might be the end of Nebraska's season.

16: Ohio State (W-W vs. Illinois 55-14)
JT Barrett could make himself a legit Heisman contender if he can beat MSU next week.

17: Utah (L-W vs. Arizona State 19-16)
That's five straight games decided by six points or fewer for the Utes, who are 3-2 in those games.

18: Oklahoma (W-W vs. Iowa State 59-14)
Three men had over 100 rushing yards and four had at least 76 yards on the ground for the Sooners.

19: LSU (Bye)

20: West Virginia (L-W vs. TCU 31-30)
Clint Trickett picked a bad time to have the worst game of his season.

21: Clemson (Bye)

22: UCLA (W-W vs. Arizona 17-7)
Brett Hundley hasn't been spectacular, but he has been making the plays he has had to make to win games.

23: East Carolina (L-L vs. Temple 20-10)
It's doubtful that East Carolina will be the representative of the "Group of Five" this year in the New Year's Six bowls after losing to Temple.

24: Duke (W-W vs. Pittsburgh 51-48)
Duke took every shot that Pitt could throw at it on Saturday, yet it still won in OT to keep its ACC Coastal Division title dreams alive.

25: Louisville (L-L vs. Florida State 42-31)
The Cards should have at least covered against FSU, but they will rue the day they blew that three-TD lead against the defending champs.

College Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Texas A&M at Auburn

Auburn (7-1, 4-4 ATS) dealing Ole Miss a second straight loss this past weekend will host unranked Texas A&M (6-3, 3-6 ATS) Saturday as Tigers look to remain alive in the race to become one of four teams to play in the first playoff series. The line in this contest is floating between 21.5 to 22.0 depending on locale. A lot of lumber to be laying. However, even though Aggies will be without QB Hill (suspended) too much at stake for Tigers to take A&M lightly. Expect Tigers balanced offense amassing 38.8 PPG to keep pedal-to-metal improving they're perfect 14-0 (10-4 ATS) stretch at Jordan Hare Stadium, 12-2 (11-3 ATS) streak vs SEC opponents and 7-3 ATS mark laying double digits.

Ohio State at Michigan State

Michigan State (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) coming off a 35-11 spanking of instate rival Michigan as a 17-point home chalk, then getting a bye this past weekend look to shore up its Big 10 title hopes when they host rival Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) off a 55-14 smacking of Fighting Illini easily covering the 28 point spot. Little doubt coach Dantonio's troops take the field with plenty of confidence as Spartans have won six (4-2 ATS) consecutive games since dropping a decision at Oregon and have won twelve straight in Spartan Stadium (7-5 ATS). However, wouldn't surprise if Urban Meyer's gang play spoiler. Buckeyes have won 8 of the past 10 encounters (6-3-1 ATS) including 4-1 SU/ATS right in Spartans' back yard.

Alabama at LSU

LSU Tigers off a dominant defensive effort in stunning Ole Miss 10-7 as 4-point home pups now set their sight on spoiling Bama`s run at the four-team inaugural playoff. Back to playing old-school football, grinding out yards on the ground, playing sound defense LSU will give Alabama a stiff challenge. Crimson Tide will probably win outright, but Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge being one of the toughest venues in the country for a visiting team, LSU has a very good chance at keeping this one within the point spread. Consider taking LSU and the expected 6.5 points. Tide have not done well betting-wise this season posting a 2-7 ATS record and the status as road chalk has a way of working against the squad (0-6 ATS). Another negative betting trend against Saban's troops deals with play during the month of November. The team is 3-9-1 against the betting line.

Bad Company - Week 11
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

There are plenty of huge matchups inside college football this week (Alabama at LSU, Baylor at Oklahoma, Kansas State at TCU). But there are also a number of contests between teams that are out of contention, which set up for decent wagering opportunities. We’ll take a look at these squads in Week 11 of the college football season, starting with a pair of bottom-feeders in the AAC.

SMU (+12) at Tulsa

These two teams have combined for just one win, while Tulsa’s only victory this season came back in August against Tulane in two overtimes. How bad has SMU’s offense been this season? The Mustangs have busted double-digits just twice in seven games, while scoring six points or less in the other five contests. In the lone game that SMU covered, the Mustangs were getting 40½ points in a 45-24 loss at East Carolina, while SMU has given up at least 41 points in each defeat.

Tulsa is favored for the fourth time this season, but has lost each of its past three home contests against USF, Texas State, and Oklahoma. The Golden Hurricane hasn’t been horrible offensively, but has yielded at least 31 points in all eight games. Tulsa has put together a 1-5 ATS record in its past six games in the role of a home favorite, while posting a 6-14 ATS mark overall since the start of 2013.

Syracuse (+3½) vs. Duke

The Orange last won a game at the Carrier Dome in late August against FCS squad Villanova – in overtime. Syracuse has dropped four consecutive home games, capped off by a 24-17 loss to North Carolina State as 3 ½-point favorites, ending the Wolfpack’s 12-game ACC losing streak. The Orange has played better defensively after a slow start, allowing 47 points in the past three games, but faces a Duke team that averaging 212 yards a game on the ground.

Duke has lost just once this season, as the Blue Devils are closing a stretch of four road games in six weeks. The Blue Devils outlasted Pittsburgh in overtime, 51-48, in spite of allowing nearly 600 yards to the Panthers last week. Amazingly, Duke has been outgained by at least 100 yards in all four ACC games this season, while facing Syracuse for the first time in school history.

Tulane (+17½) at Houston

The Cougars are getting back on track following a 17-12 home loss to UCF last month, as Houston is riding a three-game winning streak. After Houston knocked off Memphis as a road underdog, the Cougars crushed Temple and USF, outscoring those two squads by a combined 48-13. The Cougars will be significant favorites in the next three games, as this team faces Tulsa and SMU in the following two weeks prior to a huge conference showdown at Cincinnati to close the regular season.

Tulane embarrassed themselves in front of a nationally televised audience in a 38-14 setback to Cincinnati as a four-point home underdogs last Friday. The Green Wave has dropped three of four conference games, with the lone win coming in a 12-3 defensive struggle over UConn. Tulane has dropped 10 straight meetings with Houston, as each of the last nine matchups have been decided by 19 points or more.

Georgia State (+7) at Troy

The only good news regarding this matchup is someone has to win. These two teams have combined for a 2-16 record, as Georgia State’s only win came in the opener against FCS foe Abilene Christian, 38-37. The Panthers covered seven of nine games last season, but Georgia State is just 4-5 ATS this season, while this team has given up 1,082 yards rushing in the past two weeks to Georgia Southern and Appalachian State.

Troy hasn’t been much better, scoring just 37 points in the past three losses since beating New Mexico State, 41-24. The Trojans have yielded 1,158 yards on the ground during this three-game losing streak, but Troy did face two stellar attacks in Georgia Southern and Appalachian State, who ran all over Georgia State. When Troy and Georgia State hooked up last season, the Trojans gained 634 yards, but won a close game, 35-28 as 15-point road favorites.

Washington State (+8) at Oregon State

Two struggling squads inside the loaded Pac-12 look to end losing streaks this Saturday in Corvallis. The Cougars are without the nation’s leading passer as Connor Halliday broke his leg in last Saturday’s 44-17 loss to USC. Washington State will try to snap a four-game skid as it turns to redshirt freshman Lucas Falk, who threw for 346 yards in the defeat to the Trojans. Wazoo has been limited to 17 points or less in two of the past three games, while posting a 1-4 ATS record in Pac-12 play by somehow upsetting Utah on the road as 13-point underdogs.

The Beavers have dropped four of five games inside the conference, with the only win coming against cellar-dweller Colorado. Oregon State rallied from a 17-point deficit in last week’s game against California, but the Golden Bears outscored the Beavers, 18-0 to close the game in a 45-31 win by Cal on the road. The Beavers are 3-0 in the past three meetings with the Cougars, including a 52-24 rout in Pullman last season as 2½-point favorites.

ACC Report - Week 11
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Georgia Tech at North Carolina State

The Yellow Jackets head into this one looking to maintain its dominance in the series. Georgia Tech is 5-0-1 ATS in the past six trips to Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, and the Ramblin' Wreck is 8-3-2 ATS in the past 13 meetings overall against the Wolfpack. In addition, the road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the past five meetings. You can still get Georgia Tech favored by less than six, as of mid-week. N.C. State won its first ACC game since the 2012 season last week at Syracuse. The good news for the Pack is that the underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight meetings in this series, but that's the only trend pointing at them. N.C. State has covered just two of its past nine at home, and they're 1-5 ATS in the past six games in November. However, if you're a Pack side bettor, they are an impressive 17-5-1 ATS in the past 23 home games against a team with a winning road record, and Georgia Tech is just 3-8 ATS in the past 11 against a team with a winning overall mark.

Duke at Syracuse

Duke heads to Syracuse looking to run its record to 8-1 and keep their hopes alive for back-to-back trips to the ACC Championship Game. The Blue Devils won a great game in double-overtime at Pittsburgh last week, 51-48, improving to 10-2 ATS in the past 12 conference games. Duke is also 7-1-1 ATS in the past nine road games against a team with a losing home record, and they are 7-0 ATS in their past seven on field turf. Overall, Duke is 16-5-1 ATS in the past 22. For whatever reason, Duke continues to get no respect from Vegas, as they are favored by just three or four points depending on the shop. Duke is also 8-3 ATS in the past 11 road games, while Syracuse is just 1-5 ATS in its past six home games. If you were thinking Orange, it might be better to go under instead. The under is 6-1-1 for Syracuse in the past eight, and 4-1 in their past five ACC games while going 3-1-1 in the past five at home. The under is 6-1 in Duke's past seven ACC games, 8-3 in their past 11 and 7-2 in their past nine road games.

Virginia at Florida State

The under has been the dominant trend in this series lately, cashing in four straight meetings in Tallahassee, and each of the past nine meetings overall. For UVA, the under is 6-0 in its past six conference games, and 4-0 in their past four overall. The under is 5-0 in Florida State's past five at home, and 7-1 in their past eight on grass. However, the over has hit in 10 of their past 14 ACC games. Virginia fired out of the chute this season and looked to be a friend to bettors covering five times in the first five games. However, they are just 0-3-1 ATS in the past four, including losses in three straight both straight-up and ATS. FSU has made it interesting against good opponents, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat, much to their chagrin of their detractors. After starting 0-4 ATS in the first four, and 1-6 ATS in the first seven, they did cover in impressive fashion at Louisville last Thursday. One thing to watch, QB Jameis Winston has an ankle injury, but early word is that it should not bother him or alter his status for Saturday.

Louisville at Boston College

Louisville hits the road for Chestnut Hill in a primetime game. The Cardinals are 22-8 ATS in their past 30 road games, and 16-6 ATS in their past 22 conference games dating back to their days in the Big East and AAC. In addition, Louisville is a whopping 17-4 ATS in their past 21 road games against a team with a winning home record. Boston College is 11-4 ATS in their past 15 home games, and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 against a team with a winning record. They're also 9-4 ATS in the past 13 conference games. The under is 4-0 in Louisville's past four on the road, 6-1-1 in the past eight conference games and 18-7-1 in their past 26 overall. The under is 4-1 in BC's past five, 3-1-1 in their past five ACC games and 19-7-2 in their past 28 against a team with a winning overall mark.

BYE WEEKS

Miami (Fla.), North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech

Pac-12 Report - Week 11
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

The Pac-12 has a couple of huge games, and many others of intrigue. Notre Dame and Arizona State have a game with huge implications, as do Oregon and Utah. However, all eyes will be on the game between UCLA and Washington, as neither can afford another setback. All games will be very interesting this weekend, even the Washington State-Oregon State tilt.

Notre Dame at Arizona State

The Sun Devils host the Irish in a game with huge implications. Last season the teams met on a neutral field and Arizona State suffered a 37-34 heartbreaker against the Irish, so now they look to return the favor. Arizona State is just 1-4 ATS over its past five home games, and 1-4 ATS in the past five non-conference tilts. They're also just 4-9 ATS in their past 13 games in the month of November. The Irish are an impressive 6-0 ATS in their past six against a team with a winning record, and 5-0 ATS in their past five against the Pac-12, including a win against Stanford last month. Total players will want to note the under is 22-8 in the past 30 for the Irish against Pac-12 teams, and 5-1 in their past six road games. The under is also 7-3 in AZ State's past 10, and 5-2 in their past seven against a winning team.

Washington State at Oregon State

Washington State heads to Corvallis for its first game since losing a seventh game, and therefore becoming bowl ineliglble. It will be interesting to see how the Cougs respond, especially after losing QB Connor Halliday (ankle) to a season-ending injury. While the road team has covered in five straight meetings in this series, Washington State is 3-11 ATS in their past 14 meetings against Oregon State. The total has some conflicting trends. The under is 15-5-1 in the past 21 road games for Wazzu, and 5-2 in their past seven Pac-12 games, but the over is 23-10-1 in their past 34 on field turf. The over is 3-0-1 in Oregon State's past four, and 9-2 in their past 11 in November, but the under is 3-1-1 in their past five at Reser Stadium.

UCLA at Washington

The Bruins head to Seattle to battle with the Huskies. UCLA is 7-3 ATS in their past 10 road games against a team with a winning home record, but they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five league games and 1-4 ATS in their past five overall. Washington is 17-8 in their past 25 home games, however they are just 4-10 ATS in their past 14 against the Bruins, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven home games against UCLA. The under might be the play, as it has cashed in five of the past seven meetings in this series. The under is 3-1-1 in their past five overall, and 9-2 in their past 11 road games. The under is 8-3 in Washington's past 11, and 19-7-1 in their past 27 home games. The under has also hit in 11 of the past 12 home games against a team with a winning road record.

Colorado at Arizona

The Buffaloes aren't a terrible team, losing three of their past five games by five or fewer points. The over has also cashed in five straight games for Colorado, and 10 of the past 11 against a team with a winning record. The over is 5-1 in their past six games away from Folsom Field, too. Arizona started the season 5-0 SU, but they have lost two of the past three games and they're also 1-2 ATS during the span. The under has hit in three of the past four games, too, and is 8-2 in their past 10 games at home. The over has hit in six of the past seven for Arizona at home against a team with a losing road record.

Oregon at Utah

Oregon hits the road for Rice-Eccles in Salt Lake City looking to maintain its dominance in the Pac-12 and keep their playoff hopes on track. Oregon is 4-0 ATS in their past four conference games, and 10-2 ATS in their past 12 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Ducks are also 15-4 ATS in their past 19 road games. Utah is 7-0 ATS in their past seven games against a team with a winning record, and 4-0 ATS in their past four games overall. The Utes are also 5-2 ATS in their past seven home games, and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 at Rice-Eccles against a team with a winning road record. The total trends are conflicting a bit, as the over is 3-0-1 in the past four for Oregon, but the under is 5-1-1 in their past seven road games. The under is 5-0-1 in Utah's past six, and 6-2 in their past eight home games while going 19-7-1 in their past 27 against a team with a winning record.

BYE WEEKS

California, Southern California

Big Ten Report - Week 11
By ASAWins.com

GAME OF THE WEEK

Michigan State (-3.5) vs. Ohio State

The symmetry in this matchup is unbelievable. It's the two best teams in the B1G playing in the most important conference game of the year. Trying to find an edge in this matchup is an extremely tough task. MSU has won six straight games by 30.5 PPG and has the No. 5 scoring offense in the nation; OSU has won six straight by 33.8 PPG and has the No. 4 ranked scoring offense in the nation. Michigan State has surrendered just 20.3 PPG in B1G play and has the No. 5 ranked total defense; OSU has surrendered just 19.8 PPG in B1G play and has the No. 8 ranked total defense. MSU has won 12 straight home games by an average of 24.6 PPG; OSU has won 12 straight road games by an average of 15.4 PPG. The oddsmakers have made MSU a slight favorite here as they are playing at home off of a bye. The bye week came at a perfect time for the Spartans. They are off of an emotional victory over in-state rival Michigan and now have had an extra week to prepare for the Buckeyes. There aren’t many negative things to say about the Spartans right now as they are playing extremely sound football. The offense is humming behind QB Cook (17 TD, 5 INT) and RB Langford (100+ rush yards in five straight games). The run defense is surrendering just 95.4 YPG on 3.3 YPC and the pass defense is allowing opposing QB’s to complete just 51 percent. OSU is off of a blowout win over Illinois in a game where the Bucks got to rest the starters, so fatigue shouldn't be a factor here. QB J.T. Barrett has 20 pass TD and just 2 INT while adding 5 rush TD over OSU’s last six games. There is a bit of concern here though as he has yet to face a defense the likes of MSU, and the most similar comparison would be a game against a stout Penn State defense in which he had one of his poorer games (12-of-19 for 74 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT). The Bucks will look to get their 14th ranked rushing attack (259.2 rush YPG) going to aid their freshman quarterback here. Defensively the Bucks have developed into one of the top units in the conference and they get after the quarterback. Joey Bosa leads the conference in sacks, tackles for loss, and forced fumbles and has made a few game-altering plays this season. Ohio State is 8-2 SU over the last 10 games in the series, but Michigan State has won and covered two of the last three, including last year's matchup in the B1G Championship game. The last three games in the series have been decided by just 14 total points. Ohio State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 as a road underdog, winning five of the 10 games outright. Michigan State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 B1G games.

The REST

Wisconsin (-16) at Purdue

Wisconsin didn’t exactly have a warm welcome to B1G newcomers Maryland and Rutgers in the past two weeks as the Badgers destroyed both by a combined score of 89-7. Last week’s 37-0 blowout of Rutgers was particularly dominant as they allowed the Scarlet Knights to gain just 139 total yards and achieve 8 first downs. RB’s Melvin Gordon and Corey Clement did the heavy lifting on offense, combining for 259 rush yards and 4 rush TD. Wisconsin will be chomping at the bit to get Gordon & Clement going against this Purdue defense that has surrendered 252.6 rush YPG (5.2 YPC) and 9 rush TD in its last three games. UW defensive coordinator Dave Aranda has his unit clicking on all cylinders as Wisconsin is 1st nationally in yards per game allowed (253.8), 3rd in pass YPG allowed (150.9), 11th in rush YPG allowed (102.9), and 3rd in PPG allowed (14.1). Opponents have reached the red zone just 13 times in eight games so far, by far the fewest in the B1G. Purdue, while improved offensively from 2013, ranks 104th nationally in total yards per game and 84th in points per game. Before being limited to just 14 points against Nebraska last week, the Boilers had scored 31 points or more in three straight, so there’s hope here for Purdue’s offense. For the Boilers to have a chance at winning, QB Austin Appleby will have to perform better than he did against the Huskers last week. Appleby completed just 18-of-46 passes (39 percent) for 216 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT. His poor play led Purdue to convert on just 2-of-16 3rd down opportunities and 14 points. Though Purdue has been a lot more competitive this season than it was in 2013, it hasn’t translated into victories. The Boilers have now dropped three straight and will need to win out to become bowl-eligible. Wisconsin has won and covered eight straight vs. the Boilermakers, winning each of those eight matchups by an average of 24.1 PPG. Last year in Madison the Badgers won, 41-10, and had a +366 total yard advantage. They rushed for 388 yards and 5 TD on 8.1 YPC. Wisconsin is just 6-15 ATS in its last 21 as a road favorite of 10 points or more. Purdue is 4-0-1 ATS this season as a double-digit underdog.

Iowa (-1.5) at Minnesota

The Hawkeyes had the most impressive victory in the B1G last week with its 48-7 shellacking of Northwestern. Don’t look now but the Hawks may have found themselves an offense. They’ve averaged 41.3 PPG over the last three and were all over the Wildcats from the get-go last week. They scored the first 24 points of the game en route to a 38-7 halftime lead over Illinois. They had their best rushing performance of the season with 221 rush yards and 4 TD on 4.8 YPC. The defense was outstanding in holding Northwestern to just 180 total yards and 13 first downs. The defensive front held the Wildcats to just 105 rush yards on 2.4 YPC and limited NW to just 9-of-24 passing for 75 yards. It’s a good time for Iowa to break out as the Hawks start a stretch of important games against Minnesota, Nebraska, and Wisconsin to decide the B1G West race. It was a great time for the Gophers to have a bye week as they are off of an embarrassing loss to Illinois two weeks ago. Minnesota was able to pull off back-to-back close victories over Northwestern and Purdue, but couldn’t do it a third straight time against Illinois. The lack of a competent passing attack really hurt the Gophers as QB Leidner completed just 12-of-30 passes. The Gophers actually held a three-point lead in the 4th quarter before Illinois returned a Leidner fumble for a TD. Leidner’s inconsistencies in the passing game (Minnesota is 122nd nationally in pass YPG) could be the downfall of this team. He’ll have to be at the top of his game this week against an Iowa pass-defense that ranks 3rd in the B1G in pass-defense efficiency, allowing opposing QB’s to complete just 50.2% with 6 TD and 10 INT. The good news is that Minnesota had a bye week to figure out its issues; the bad news is that the competition takes a huge step up from here on out with games against Iowa, OSU, Nebraska, and Wisconsin (combined record of 27-6). The Floyd of Rosedale trophy battle between these two has always been a hotly contested rivalry. Minnesota has covered five of the last eight in the series, but Iowa is 2-0 SU & ATS the past two seasons, winning both games by 16+ points. Iowa has covered eight of its last nine road games and is 5-0 SU & ATS in its last five games as a road favorite. Minnesota is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games as a home underdog of fewer than 10 points.

Penn State (-5) at Indiana

Penn State continues to free-fall. The Nittany Lions lost another heart-breaker last week in their one-point home loss to B1G newcomer Maryland. It was PSU’s fourth straight loss overall and third straight by seven points or fewer. Defensively the Nittany Lions played good enough to beat the Terps, allowing just 194 total yards and 15 first downs. It was another struggle offensively that led to PSU’s demise in this one. QB Hackenberg had another poor outing, completing just 18-of-42 passes for 177 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT with 2 lost fumbles. Hackenberg is completing just 54.7% with just 3 pass TD and 8 turnovers (5 INT, 3 fumbles) in PSU’s four-game skid. It doesn’t help Hackenberg’s case the PSU has one of the worst rush-offenses in the nation. The Nittany Lions have just 162 rush yards on less than 1.5 YPC over the last four games. They should be able to find a little running room against this Indiana defense that has allowed 240 rush YPG over its last three games. Indiana doesn’t have a viable option at quarterback now that Nate Sudfeld is out for the year. Since he got injured against Iowa, his backups have combined to complete just 13-of-36 passes for 66 yards with 0 TD and 2 INT in a little over two games of action. A 34-10 loss to Michigan last week showed opponents how easy it is to roll through Indiana if you can keep Tevin Coleman under wraps. Coleman, to his credit, has still surpassed 100 rush yards in every game this season (averaging 162.5 rush YPG), but he can’t win games by himself. And Indiana’s defense hasn’t proven that it’s good enough to keep the Hoosiers competitive. The Hoosiers allowed Michigan’s anemic offense to gain 404 total yards. They even made Michigan QB Devin Gardner look like he was a star. They are now 101st in yards per game allowed and 108th in points per game allowed. Indiana was 0-16 SU in the series against Penn State before notching its first win in 2013, 44-24. The Hoosiers are also 5-2 ATS in the last seven games vs. the Nittany Lions. Indiana is 0-4 ATS in conference play this season and 2-9 ATS in its last 11 B1G games dating back to last season. Penn State is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 as a road favorite.

Michigan (-1.5) at Northwestern

The fact that Northwestern is a home underdog to these Wolverines goes to show how much the Wildcats are struggling right now. They’ve now dropped three consecutive games after a promising 2-0 start in B1G play that included a victory over Wisconsin. The offense is horrendous. This unit has averaged just 13.6 PPG during the three-game losing streak. It starts with the struggles of QB Siemian, who is completing just 54% for 170 pass YPG with 1 TD and 2 INT over the last three games. They may have bottomed out in last week’s loss to Iowa, a game in which the Wildcats were outgained by 303 yards and were down by 31 points by halftime. A once promising defense (16.2 PPG allowed after five games) has now allowed 36.6 PPG over the last three. Coach Pat Fitzgerald is using last week’s debacle as motivation to bounce back and get Northwestern into bowl eligibility, starting against the Wolverines this Saturday. After losing to in-state rival Michigan State, Michigan took out its frustration on Indiana last Saturday in a 34-10 victory. Indiana, playing essentially without a passing attack (5-of-8 passing for 24 yards), wasn’t necessarily hard to dispatch. But it was a promising effort from this Michigan offense that gained 404 total yards behind a solid day from QB Gardner (22-of-29 for 220 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT). Sophomore RB Drake Johnson had a breakout performance with 122 rush yards and 2 TD on just 16 carries. The Wolverines, with all of their struggles and headaches this season, have two winnable games in a row before its season-ending showdown with the Buckeyes. If they can continue to improve and play mistake-free on the offensive side, 2014 could conclude with a happy ending after all. Michigan is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Evanston, including last year’s 27-19 overtime road victory. Michigan is just 7-17-1 ATS in its last 25 road games and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games as a B1G road favorite. Northwestern is 6-11 ATS in its last 17 games as a home underdog and just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 B1G games.

Nebraska - Bye

Nebraska got a bit of a scare when star RB Ameer Abdullah left Saturday's game against Purdue with a knee injury. It doesn’t appear to be anything too serious, and it helps that Nebraska has a bye week for Abdullah to heal. But his status is up in the air when the Huskers return to the field in a critical B1G West matchup against Wisconsin on November 15th. Abdullah’s absence was evident against Purdue has the Huskers struggled to move the football. Nebraska gained just 297 total yards, including 179 rush yards on just 3.5 YPC. QB Armstrong was also ineffective, throwing for just 118 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT. Still, the Huskers were able to take advantage of Purdue’s mistakes and score 35 points in the win. They’ll rest up and prepare a gameplan for the key battle against Wisconsin next week.

Maryland - Bye

Maryland bounced back from its blowout loss to Wisconsin to notch a key conference victory over Penn State. For the Terps, it was just their second win over Penn State in the last 38 tries, and it made them officially bowl-eligible. They may have started a new rivalry in the process in the hotly contested battle as Maryland’s captains refused to shake hands with PSU’s captains when they met for the coin toss. As for the game, Maryland managed just 194 total yards, including just 33 rush yards on 30 carries – making it their 2nd consecutive game with fewer than 50 rush yards. Defensively Maryland hasn’t looked better this season. They held PSU to just 219 total yards, including 42 rush yards on 41 carries while forced four turnovers. The Terps now get a bye week to prepare for a battle with Michigan State on November 15th.

Rutgers - Bye

After a promising 5-1 start to the season, the Scarlet Knights have now dropped three straight. The three losses came by an average of 31.3 PPG with the closest margin of defeat an 18-point loss to Nebraska. They may have bottomed out in the home loss to Wisconsin last week as it’s difficult to imagine them playing any worse than they did last week. Playing against the best defense in the Big Ten, Rutgers managed just 139 total yards and 8 first downs and were shutout for the first time in 12 years. QB’s Nova & Laviano combined to complete just 7-of-27 passes for 63 yards while the rushing attacked notched just 76 yards on 29 carries (2.6 YPC). The front line of the defense was gashed for 298 yards despite stacking the box. Their next game, a home game against Indiana next week, seems to be a “must-win” for the Scarlet Knights to become bowl eligible as they’ll be underdogs on the road the final two weeks of the season (@MSU, @Maryland).

Illinois - Bye

The momentum from upsetting Minnesota disappeared pretty quickly against Ohio State last week. The Illini were completely outmatched from the get-go as OSU held a 31-0 halftime lead. The Bucks had a 48-0 advantage before Illinois put a couple of garbage touchdowns & yards on the board late in the game. QB O’Toole, who had put together a string of respectable performances, struggled mightily. He tossed for just 58 yards with 2 INT before getting pulled from the game. The rushing attack managed just 106 yards on 42 carries, making it the eight game out of nine that the Illini have been held under 4.0 YPC. It’ll take a miraculous finish for Illinois to win two of its final three to become bowl-eligible. Next up the Illini host Iowa on November 15th.

Alabama at LSU
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Another chapter of Alabama-LSU, perhaps the best rivalry in all of college football over the last decade, will be written Saturday night when the Crimson Tide comes to Baton Rouge to take on the Tigers.

LSU head coach Les Miles calls his home venue: “Tiger Stadium, the place where teams’ dreams go to die.” That assessment has been spot-on in LSU’s last 38 games, with Miles posting a 36-2 straight-up record. During his 10-year tenure, the Tigers are 62-8 at home.

One of those two recent defeats, however, came during Alabama’s last visit in 2012. Zach Mettenberger had played his best football as a Tiger, leading his team back from a 14-3 halftime deficit to take a 17-14 advantage. After LSU missed a field goal in the last two minutes, ‘Bama had one last chance to rally.

A.J. McCarron led the Crimson Tide on a precise drive and into LSU territory. On a third down with the Tigers bringing the blitz, McCarron hit T.J. Yeldon on a screen pass and the then-true-freshman running back did the rest. Yeldon dodged a pair of would-be tacklers before racing into the end zone for a TD that will be remembered in ‘Bama lore until the end of time. Final score: ‘Bama 21, LSU 17.

Thanks to another Alabama win last season, the Tide has now beaten LSU three consecutive times going into Saturday’s showdown at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

As of Thursday afternoon, most books had Alabama (7-1 straight up, 2-6 against the spread) installed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 45.5. Gamblers can back the Tigers on the money line for a +210 return (risk $100 to win $210).

Both teams have had two weeks to prepare for this contest. On Oct. 25, Alabama went into Knoxville and jumped all over Tennessee early. On its first play from scrimmage, Blake Sims found Amari Cooper for an 80-yard scoring strike with Cooper doing most of the work with YAC (yards after catch). The Sims-Cooper combination would hook up again on a 41-yard TD pass for a 13-0 lead with 8:55 left in the first quarter.

Nick Saban’s team was up 27-0 less than three minutes into the second quarter after Sims ripped off a 28-yard run to paydirt. From there, though, the Tide took the pressure off the accelerator and ended up costing its backers monetarily.

UT sophomore QB Josh Dobbs led a pair of scoring drives to bring the Volunteers to within 27-10 at intermission. When Dobbs found Von Pearson for a nine-yard TD pass with 5:52 left in the third, Neyland Stadium erupted with its team down only 10 points (and ahead of the 20-point underdog number).

But ‘Bama would answer with a 28-yard TD run from Derrick Henry to put the game on ice. The Vols tacked on a field goal and the defense protected the backdoor cover in a 34-20 loss. The 54 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 45.5-point total.

Sims finished with 286 passing yards, 42 rushing yards and three TDs (two passing, one rushing). Cooper had nine receptions for 224 yards and a pair of scores, while Yeldon and Henry combined to rush for 130 yards with one rushing score apiece.

For the season, Sims is completing 65.3 percent of his throws for 2,020 yards with a 15/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has also run for 223 yards and five TDs. Cooper has 71 receptions for 1,132 yards and nine TDs.

Alabama is second in the nation in scoring defense, giving up only 14.0 points per game. It is second in rush defense and fourth in total defense. As for the offense, it scores at a 36.5 PPG clip.

Since getting smashed 41-7 at Auburn on Nov. 4, LSU (7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS) has won three in a row both SU and ATS, including wins at Florida (30-27), vs. Kentucky (41-3) and vs. Ole Miss (10-7). The Tigers’ defense was the story against the Rebels, coming up with a huge interception in the closing seconds when Ole Miss was in field-goal range to possibly to send the game into overtime.

LSU is inexperienced at the QB position, so it has relied on its ground game and defense. Although this isn’t as powerful or as talented of a team that we’re used to seeing on Miles’s watch, it’s a young and athletic bunch that’s gaining confidence by the week.

Miles has a stable of quality RBs led by true freshman Leonard Fournette, who has rushed for a team-high 657 yards and seven TDs while averaging 5.0 yards per carry. Terrence Magee and Kenny Hilliard have rushed for 418 and 416 yards, respectively, while combining for nine TD runs.

Anthony Jennings has started eight of the nine games and it’s been his show over the last month. The sophomore is connecting on just 50.0 percent of his attempts for 1,190 yards with an 8/5 TD-INT ratio. Jennings’ favorite target is fellow sophomore Travin Dural, who averages 25.0 yards per catch. Dural has 27 receptions for 676 yards and seven TDs.

Alabama OT Cam Robinson, the crown five-star jewel of the 2014 recruiting class, has been the team’s best offensive lineman all year and may be en route to earning first-team All-SEC honors. The true freshman suffered a high ankle sprain at Tennessee on Oct. 25 and was expected to miss several weeks. However, Robinson practiced on Tuesday and has been upgraded to ‘probable.’ RB T.J. Yeldon has also been on the injury report with a foot injury, but he’ll be ready to go as well.

Nick Saban’s team has struggled in road ‘chalk’ roles recently, limping to a 1-7 spread record in its last eight such spots. The Tide is 0-3 ATS this year, failing to cover as a favorite at Ole Miss, at Arkansas and at Tennessee.

LSU has been a home underdog during Les Miles’s tenure just five times, going 3-2 ATS with a pair of outright victories. One of the wins came over Ole Miss two weeks ago and the other was in the form of a 24-21 win over ‘Bama in 2010.

Totals have been an overall wash for ‘Bama (4-4), but the ‘under’ has cashed in three of its last four games. The ‘under’ is 2-1 in its three previous road assignments. The Tide’s outings have averaged combined scores of 50.5 PPG.

The ‘under’ is 5-4 overall for LSU, 4-2 in its home games. The Tigers’ games have played to an average combined score of 48.7 PPG.

When these schools met at Bryant-Denny Stadium last season, LSU pulled even at 17-17 early in the third quarter on a 41-yard field goal. But it was all ‘Bama from there with it scoring 21 unanswered points to capture a 38-17 win as a 14-point home favorite. Yeldon was a killer for LSU again, racking up 133 rushing yards and two TDs.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

The ‘under’ has cashed at a 4-1 clip in the last five ‘Bama-LSU meetings.

Two Florida starters, safety Keanu Neal (ankle) and offensive guard Trenton Brown (knee), are ‘out’ for Saturday’s game at Vanderbilt due to injuries. Vandy snapped a 22-game losing streak to Florida with last year’s 34-17 win at The Swamp. It was the Commodores first victory over UF since 1988. They haven’t beaten the Gators in back-to-back games since the 1950s. UF is favored by 14.5.

The ‘over’ is 8-1 in the last nine head-to-head meetings between Florida and Vandy. Despite their offensive ineptitude with the exception of last week’s 38-point explosion vs. UGA, the Gators have watched the ‘over’ cash at a 6-1 clip this season.

After starting the season with a 0-3 ATS record, Vandy has covered the spread in five of its last six games.

In the wake of a 45-42 overtime loss to Tennessee last week, several monster performances from South Carolina players went relatively unnoticed. And that’s what happens when you lose for the third time by allowing a fourth-quarter lead to get away (S. Carolina also lost after being tied at Auburn in the final stanza). On Saturday night at Williams-Brice Stadium, the Gamecocks let a pair of separate double-digit leads slip away in the final stanza. But Steve Spurrier has found a new star in his offense and his name is sophomore Pharoh Cooper. Cooper was in on four TDs (two receiving, one passing and one rushing). He had 11 receptions for 233 yards and amassed 286 all-purpose yards.

Tennessee QB Justin Worley will have season-ending surgery to repair a torn labrum, ending his collegiate career. Worley finishes his UT career with 3,556 passing yards and a 23/21 TD-INT ratio.

Josh Dobbs has established himself as the present and the future QB for the Vols. He threw for 301 yards and a pair of TDs (just one interception) in the comeback win over the Gamecocks. Most notably, Dobbs showed off his athleticism with 24 rushes for 166 yards and three TDs. UT has an open date before finishing the year with this three-game stretch: vs. Missouri, vs. Kentucky and at Vandy. Yes, it appears as if the Vols are going to go bowling for the first time since 2010.

The first career start for true freshman QB Kyle Allen didn’t go as anticipated this past Saturday when Texas A&M held off ULM by a 21-16 count. The Warhawks easily took the money as double-digit underdogs. Allen completed only 13-of-28 throws for 106 yards with one TD and one interception. The Aggies could muster only 243 yards of total offense, while ULM had 347 total yards. Allen gets his second start Saturday at Auburn, as Kenny Hill serves the end of his two-game suspension.

Arkansas, Tennessee, South Carolina and Missouri have open dates this week, while both Mississippi schools play host to FCS opponents.

NCAAF Week 11

Top games of week

Penn State lost last four games, last three by 7 or less points; they're 1-1 on road this season, winning 13-10 at Rutgers. Indiana (+3.5) beat Penn State 44-24 LY, its first series win in last 13 tries; Lions won last seven visits here, all by 11+ points. Indiana allowed 45 ppg in losing last three games; they're 5-6 as home dogs under Wilson, 0-1 this year. Penn State is 2-4 in last six games as a road favorite. Big 14 home underdogs are 5-5 this year.

Iowa won 10 of last 13 games with Minnesota, winning 23-7/31-13 last two years; Hawkeyes are 4-3 as series road favorite, but just 2-3 SU in last five visits here. Gophers are 4-0 at home this year, 1-1 as underdog; they're 6-6 as home dogs under Kill. Iowa scored 41.3 ppg in last three games; they're 2-1 on road and covered last five tries as a road favorite. Minnesota lost 28-24 to Illinois in last game, despite outgaining Illini by 148 yards.

Michigan was outscored 92-35 in losing its first three road games; they won eight of last nine games with Northwestern, last three by 8-7-18, in series where underdogs covered five of last six in series. Wolverines won five in a row in Evanston, all by 8+ points. Wildcats allowed 36.7 ppg in losing last three games by combined 110-41; they gave up 14 points or less in all three wins, 23+ in losses- they're 1-3 at home vs I-A teams. Michigan is 0-5 this year when they allow more than 14 points.

Underdogs are 6-1-1 vs spread in last eight Georgia Tech-NC State tilts; Tech won last four visits here, all by 7+ points, in series where host lost last five games. State lost four of last five games and was outgained by 38 yards in LW's win at Syracuse; they've been outgained in six of eight I-A games. Tech scored 44.7 ppg in its last three games; they're 3-1 on road, with average total of 73.5 in those games. ACC home underdogs are 8-6 against spread this season.

Louisville lost two of last three games after 5-1 start; all six of its wins are by 10+ points. Cardinals had Florida State 21-0/24-7 last Thursday; their next game is at Notre Dame, so bit of trap game here, vs BC squad that won three of last four games, but lost last two home games by total of seven points (Colo State/Clemson). Eagles scored 23+ points in all six of its wins, 21 or less in losses; they're 7-3 vs spread under Addazio at home, 2-2 this season.

Texas won both Big X meetings with West Virginia, 48-45 here, 47-40 in Moergantown LY; Mountaineers scored 30+ points in each of last seven games, but tough to bounce back after 31-30 loss to TCU at gun LW, in a game WV led 13-7 at half. Longhorns lost three of last five games- they allowed 13 or less points in three of four wins (4th was 48-45 vs Iowa State). WV scored 37 ppg in winning all three road games; they've had -3 turnover game four times in last seven games.

UCLA coach Mora is Washington alum; his Bruins are 7-2, winning last three games by 2-3-10 points- they're 2-7 vs spread, with three of four road wins by 8 or less points (1-3 as home favorite this year, 4-5 under Mora overall. Huskies are 2-3 in last five games after 4-0 start; they are 2-2 as underdogs this year, 5-2 in last seven overall as home dog. Pac-12 home underdogs are 8-8 vs spread. UCLA allowed 30+ points in four of its last five games.

Alabama won five of last seven games with LSU, with three of last five in series decided by 4 or less points. Bama split its last eight visits here, with dogs 5-3 vs spread in those games. Tide scored 93 points in its last two games after fans complained about 14-13 win at Arkansas. Alabama is 0-4 as favorite away from home this year, 2-8 in last 10 overall away from home. Tigers allowed 12.3 ppg in winning three straight since 41-7 loss at Auburn; they're 3-2 as home dogs under Miles.

Underdogs are 7-4 vs spread in last 11 Baylor-Oklahoma games; Bears lost last eight visits to Norman, last seven by 7+ points. Average total in last four series games is 72.3. Baylor ran ball for 587 yards in last two series games; they've scored 45+ points in six of eight games this year, but scored 28-27 in last two road games. Baylor is 11-8 under Briles as a road underdog. Sooners scored 30+ points in every game this year, with three of last four games decided by 5 or less points (2-2).

Underdogs won last three Ohio State-Michigan State games SU; OSU is 4-0 in last four visits here, with three wins by 13+ points. Buckeyes are 5-1 vs spread in last six games, scoring 50+ points in all five covers- only non-cover was 31-24 OT win (-14) at Penn State. Spartans won last six games since loss at Oregon (4-2 vs spread); they scored 45.3 ppg in last three games. Big 14 home favorites are 11-11 vs spread. Buckeyes ran ball for 200+ yards in four of last five series games.

Notre Dame (+6.5) beat Arizona State 37-34 LY in Dallas, in game that total yardage was 427-424 ASU. Sun Devils threw ball for 362 yards in game that Irish led 14-13 at half. ND 37.7 ppg in last three games, giving up 39 to Navy's option attack- they lost 31-27 at Florida State in their only true road game this year. ASU got QB Kelly back last week; they're 4-0 since getting waxed by UCLA, allowing 12 ppg in last three games. Pac-12 non-conference home favorites are 8-5 this year.

Oregon scored 46.7 ppg in winning/covering all four games since Arizona upset them; Ducks won four of last five games with Utah; three of four wins were by 14+ points. Utes (+28) lost 44-21 at Oregon LY (433-297 TY); they're 6-1 vs spread this season, 3-0 as underdog- their last five games were all decided by 3 or less points, or in OT. Oregon allowed 34 ppg in winning all three games away from home- they scored 46.3 ppg. Pac-12 home underdogs are 8-8 vs spread this season.

Kansas State beat TCU last two years, 23-10 (-6.5) here two years ago, 33-31 (-11) at home LY; Wildcats covered last six games, winning five in row since 20-14 loss at Auburn. Snyder covered 13 of last 16 tries as a road underdog, winning SU at Oklahoma last month. Three of last five TCU games were decided by 4 or less points; Horned Frogs scored 46.7 ppg in winning/covering all four home games vs I-A teams. Big X home favorites are 6-6 vs spread in conference play.

Notes on rest of the card

-- Georgia won 15 of last 17 games with Kentucky, but covered only one of last four in Lexington; Dawgs are 6-2 but allowed 30+ points in four of last seven games. Kentucky lost last three games by 38-14-10 points.
-- Louisiana Tech won its last four games by average score of 43-13; they’re 7-1 vs spread this season- five of its six wins are by 11+ points. UAB covered three of four as an underdog this season.
-- Wisconsin won/covered its last eight games with Purdue, with last six wins all by 21+ points. Badgers won last five visits to Purdue- they ran ball for average of 406.3 ypg in last three series games against Boilers.
-- UL-Monroe covered once in last seven games, losing last four while scoring 15.5 ppg. Appalachian State won its last two games, scoring 53-44 points, after losing first five I-A games.

-- Duke is 7-1, winning last three games by 6-7-3 points; they were dog in two of those three. Blue Devils’ only loss was 22-10 at Miami. Syracuse lost its last four home games, all by 7+ points; their only win in last seven games was at Wake Forest.
-- Vanderbilt upset Florida 34-17 LY, ending 16-game losing skid vs Gators, who won last eight visits here, covering last three. Florida looked like new team in QB Harris’ first start last week, a rout of rival Georgia. -- Iowa State won its last four games with Kansas, with three of four wins by 12+ points- they beat Jayhawks 34-0/51-23 last two years, but lost four of last five visits to Lawrence. Cyclones are 2-1 as road favorites under Rhoads.
-- Arkansas State beat South Alabama 36-29/17-16 last two years, with dog covering both games. First home game in month for ASU, which beat Utah State/ULM in its first two I-A home games.

-- Houston won its last ten games with Tulane, covering nine of them; Green Wave lost last five visits here (1-4 vs spread). Cougars beat Tulane 73-17/40-17 last two years. AAC home favorites are 6-8 vs spread this year.
-- Troy won 35-28 LY at Georgia State, running ball for 249 yards. Trojans are favored despite being 1-8, allowing 40.7 ppg in last three games. Georgia State lost its last two games 69-31/44-0, both to teams in first year as a I-A squad.
-- Rice beat UTSA 27-21/34-19 last two years, winning LY despite allowing 264 rushing yards; Owls won/covered their last five games. UTSA lost six of last seven games, covered one of last five.
-- Old Dominion lost its last five games (0-5 vs spread) allowing 49.4 ppg; they’re 0-2 as a I-A favorite. FIU lost its last three games, scoring 13-13-17 points; they’re 4-3 as an underdog this year.

-- Underdogs covered eight of last nine SMU-Tulsa games; Hurricane gained 1,042 yards in last two series games. SMU is 0-7 this year; only game they covered was a 45-24 loss. Tulsa is 1-7; they went to OT both times they were favored this season.
-- Army lost three in row, six of last seven games; they lost 23-6 to rival Air Force last week, are 0-3 as an underdog this year. UConn is favored over I-A team for first time this year; they upset UCF 37-29 last week, their first ’14 win over a I-A team.
-- Road team won last two Texas A&M-Auburn games; Tigers won 45-41 (+13) LY, after Aggies won 63-21 (-14) on plains year before. Total yardage in LY’s game was 671-602, Auburn.
-- Florida State is unbeaten but 2-6 vs spread, despite scoring 31+ points in every game but one; Seminoles rallied back from down 24-7 to win at Louisville last week, face Miami next week- trap game here.

-- UTEP is improved at 5-3, scoring 36.7 in winning last three games, by 7-34-21 points. Miners allowed 55+ points each in last two losses. Western Kentucky lost three of last four games, allowing 49.3 ppg.
-- Oregon State won six of last seven games with Wazzu, winning last three by average score of 38-17. Coogs are 2-6 vs spread in last eight visits here; they lost senior QB Halliday for season last week.
-- UNLV beat Air Force 41-21/38-35 last two years after losing 12 of previous 15 series games. Rebels are 1-7 vs I-A teams this year, with only win 30-27 as 9-point dog to Fresno State. Air Force won five of last six games; they’re 2-1 as an underdog this year, is coming off win at rival Army.
-- Idaho is 4-0 as a double digit road underdog this year, with three of four losses by 12 or less points- they’re 6-2 vs spread overall. San Diego State is 3-4 vs I-A teams with only one win by more than ten points.

-- Marshall won its last three games with Southern Miss, winning 61-13/59-24 last two years; Herd an ball for 579 yards in those two games. Favorites are 5-3 vs spread in last eight series games.
-- FAU allowed 31+ points in each of last five games, losing three of last four; they’re 0-5 on road this year. 0-2 vs spread when favored. Georgia Southern is 7-2; only games they didn’t cover they were favored by 19-24 points. Eagles scored 43.6 ppg in last five games. Texas State won four of last five games, with all four wins by 8 or less points.
-- Arizona ran ball for a ridiculous 843 yards in 44-20/56-31 wins over Colorado last two years. Wildcats are 6-2 this year, but 2-3 vs spread when favored. Buffs covered five of last seven games but lost last five SU, allowing 45.8 ppg.
-- Boise State won last five games with New Mexico, winning 32-29/31-14 in last two visits here. Broncos are 6-2, scoring 47.7 ppg in winning last three games by 5-10-25 points.

-- Colorado State won its last seven games, is 1-2 as home favorite this year, winning home games by 25-3-14 points. Rams beat Hawai'i 35-28, 42-27 last two years, despite being outgained in both games.
-- Four of last five ULLafayette-New Mexico State games were decided by 3 or less points; Cajuns won 49-35 LY, despite being outgained by 10 yards. Aggies lost last seven games, allowing 40.8 ppg.
-- San Jose beat Fresno 62-52/27-24 last two years, after losing 12 of its last 13 games with Bulldogs; underdogs covered last three series games. Favorites covered all four of San Jose's road games.

Armadillosports.com

Saturday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag

NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (7-1) at ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS (7-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Arizona State -2.5, Total: 60

Two of the top teams in the nation, No. 8 Notre Dame and No. 11 Arizona State, do battle in the desert as they attempt to strengthen their playoff resumes.

The Irish have just one blemish on their season so far with a 31-27 loss against Florida State as nine-point underdogs a few weeks ago and have gone 5-3 ATS this year. They have played six of their first eight contests at home and will be playing their third straight road game when they head to Tempe this weekend. Last week, Notre Dame captured a 49-39 victory over Navy as a two-touchdown favorite when it came back from a 31-28 deficit heading into the final quarter, totaling 533 yards of offense for the game, while allowing the Midshipmen to run for 336 yards.

The Sun Devils are 4-4 ATS and also have just one loss on their season when they were destroyed by UCLA (62-27) as 3.5-point underdogs in their fourth game of the year. They have covered in three of their past four contests, but could not do so when they were victorious against Utah last week with a score of 19-16 in overtime while favored by 6.5 points. Arizona State was unable to do much once it entered the red zone as it gained an impressive 444 yards of offense, but was forced to kick four field goals.

These two programs met last season and played an exciting game with Notre Dame pulling out a 37-34 win while failing to cover the seven-point spread. The Sun Devils had a solid 362 passing yards in the contest, but turned the ball over three times while picking up a mere 65 yards on the ground, as the Irish totaled 424 yards.

Bettors should know that ASU is a meager 6-16 ATS (27%) after having won six or seven of its past eight games since 1992 while Notre Dame is a putrid 1-10 ATS (9%) in road games after gaining 7.25 yards per play in their previous game over the same timeframe.

On the injury front, LB Joe Schmidt (ankle) is out for the season for the Fighting Irish, while defensive teammate DB Austin Collinsworth is questionable with a shoulder injury. Arizona also has some key defensive players hurting too, as LB Jamal Scott (arm) and DB Ezekiel Bishop (knee) are both considered questionable.

Notre Dame has put together a balanced offense that excels through the air (228.9 YPG, 27th in FBS) while adding a solid 169.4 rushing YPG and scoring 35.4 PPG (30th in nation). QB Everett Golson (2,311 pass yards, 22 TD, 7 INT) was huge last week as he contributed 6 TD (3 passing, 3 rushing) and has thrown multiple touchdowns in every game this season while getting 300+ yards in four of the past five contests. He has also gone for 272 yards (3.5 YPC) with 7 TD when running the ball, and has had three rushing touchdowns in two different performances. HB Tarean Folston (532 rush yards, 3 TDs) has excelled in the past three games while averaging 122.3 YPG and has scored all three of his touchdowns.

He has been able to contribute plenty to the strong passing attack too with 166 yards on 12 receptions (13.8 avg.) and one score. WR William Fuller (599 rec yards, 9 TD) has had at least one touchdown in all but a single game this season and has gone over 100 yards twice. Meanwhile, WR Corey Robinson (393 rec yards, 4 TD) has averaged 13.6 yards per catch while being a big threat in the red zone.

The Irish defense has been quite impressive in most of its games, allowing the opposition to score an average of 21.6 PPG (29th in FBS) while holding opponents under 18 points in each of the first five games. LB Jaylon Smith (59 tackles, 2 sacks) will need to step up with LB Joe Schmidt (65 tackles) done for the year.

Arizona State has one of the better offenses in the nation while gaining 483.6 total YPG (22nd in FBS) with most of it coming from the passing game (291.1 YPG) as it is putting up 34.4 PPG. QB Taylor Kelly (1,010 pass yards, 9 TD, 2 INT) missed three games in the middle of the season and has a perfect record in his starts while being a dual-threat player. He has run for 230 yards (4.8 YPC) with two touchdowns on the season while getting between 180 and 240 yards passing in each of his five starts.

HB D.J. Foster (701 rush yards, 6 TD) started out the year with three consecutive games gaining more than 145 yards on the ground, but has not gone over 60 yards in his past five contests. He is one of the better receiving backs in the league though, with 452 yards on 38 catches (11.9 avg) while collecting two scores. WR Jaelen Strong (821 rec yards, 9 TD) is averaging 14.4 yards per catch and is one of the best red-zone threats in the nation while grabbing at least one touchdown in each of the past four games.

Their defense has allowed opponents to score 24.1 PPG against them behind the efforts of DBs Damarious Randall (73 tackles, 7.5 TFL), Jordan Simone (73 tackles, 2 INT) and LB Laiu Moeakiola (43 tackles, 4 sacks).

TEXAS A&M AGGIES (6-3) at AUBURN TIGERS (7-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Auburn -21.5, Total: 68

No. 3 Auburn hosts slumping Texas A&M on Saturday afternoon as it looks to stay in the new playoff picture.

The Aggies looked to be a force at the start of the season with SU victories in each of their first five games (3-2 ATS) in which they had solid wins against both South Carolina (52-28) as nine-point underdogs and Arkansas (35-28) as 8.5-point favorites. Since that time, they have gone 1-3 SU (0-4 ATS) while losing their three SEC games by an average of 30.3 PPG, including being shut out 59-0 by Alabama a few weeks ago while getting 11.5 points. The team got more bad news as QB Kenny Hill was suspended for two games and the effects were immediate as they narrowly avoided losing as 32-point favorites against Louisiana-Monroe last week. They did end up getting the win by a score of 21-16 while they turned the ball over twice and were outgained 347-243 by the 3-5 Warhawks.

As Texas A&M spirals out of control, the Tigers (4-4 ATS) have jumped into the playoff equation with big victories over Kansas State, LSU, South Carolina and Ole Miss this season. Auburn's victory over the Rebels last week was huge, as it won 35-31 as a one-point underdog with the teams combining for 989 yards of total offense. The Tigers ran for 248 yards (5.4 YPC) and three scores in the victory.

The past two meetings have been high-scoring with the average total being 85 while Auburn came away with a 45-21 win on the road last season as a 12.5-point underdog. In that game there was 1,217 yards of offense between the two teams while the Tigers overcame a 24-17 halftime deficit behind 379 yards on the ground (6.3 YPC).

Trends show that Auburn is 0-2 ATS this season after playing its previous game on the road while being an impressive 11-1 ATS after one or more straight Overs in the past two years.

QB Kenny Hill (suspension) will be missing this game for the Aggies while star DB Deshazor Everett (elbow) is doubtful. Auburn is not dealing with any significant injuries with RB Roc Thomas (ankle) upgraded to probable.

Texas A&M has scored 36.4 PPG this season (20th in nation) and has done well through the air (335.4 YPG, 7th in FBS), but will be without its starting quarterback for this one while it leans more on the rushing attack which has averaged 150.0 YPG (81st in FBS).

Freshman QB Kyle Allen (370 pass yards, 4 TD, 3 INT) will get the start for this contest. He was one of the top recruits in the nation before deciding to come to College Station, but struggled in his start last week against the Warhawks as he went 13-for-28 (46%) with 106 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.

He will need plenty of support from HBs Tra Carson (326 rush yards, 5 TD), Trey Williams (313 rush yards, 3 TD) and Brandon Williams (280 rush yards, 3 TD) who have collectively averaged 5.0 YPC. Six different receivers on the team have more than 25 receptions with WR Josh Reynolds (533 rec yards, 8 TD) leading the team in yards and scores while WRs Speedy Noil (461 rec yards, 4 TD), Malcome Kennedy (386 rec yards, 2 TD) and Ricky Seals-Jones (377 rec yards, 3 TD) all have more than 35 catches.

The defense for the program has not been impressive while allowing their opposition to score 25.9 PPG (65th in nation), as DB Howard Matthews (52 tackles, 2.5 TFL) will need to step up his performance to make this one competitive.

Auburn has been one of the elite offenses in the nation this season while scoring the 14th-most points (38.8 PPG) behind a great rushing attack (276.9 YPG, 9th in FBS) and average passing (220.6 YPG, 75th in nation).

QB Nick Marshall (1,357 pass yards, 13 TD, 4 INT) has been the key to the big offensive output as he has gone over 200 yards passing in four of his past six games while also gaining 631 yards (6.6 YPC) with nine touchdowns on the ground. He has thrown multiple TD passes in five of his past six games, and has double-digit rushing attempts in each of his past seven performances while running for at least 100 yards four times this year.

Joining him in the backfield is HB Cameron Artis-Payne (969 rush yards, 7 TD) who has averaged 5.4 YPC and has hit the century mark in 6-of-8 games in 2014. He is a workhorse with at least 20 carries in six of eight contests, but has not had a reception in any of the past three games. WR D’haquille Williams (598 rec yards, 5 TD) has been the top receiver on the year with 18 more catches than any teammate, and has surpassed 100 yards in three separate games this season.

Their defense has allowed 22.0 PPG (35th in FBS) on the year behind the play of DBs Johnathan Ford (60 tackles, 2 INT), Jonathan Jones (23 tackles, 5 INT) and LB Cassanova McKinzy (52 tackles, 8 TFL, 1 INT).

VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (4-5) at FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (8-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Florida State -20.5, Total: 55.5

No. 2 Florida State looks to continue its second perfect season in a row when it hosts Virginia on Saturday evening.

The Cavaliers started out the season looking like a team that could really keep up with anyone. They covered in each of their first five games including playing well against UCLA with a 28-20 loss as 19-point underdogs, winning 23-21 as four-point underdogs to Louisville and suffered an eight-point defeat (41-33) when they traveled to BYU as 16-point 'dogs. But since then, UVa has fallen off, with failing to cover in each of its past four games (1-3 SU). Last week the Cavaliers headed to 4-point favorite Georgia Tech and were dominated, falling 35-10 while allowing 409 yards of offense.

The Seminoles have not suffered an SU loss since Nov. 12, 2012 (24 games) but have not done well for bettors this year, as they are a meager 2-6 ATS. But they have still defeated their opponents by an average of 15.6 PPG while being at least double-digit favorites in all but the most recent two contests. FSU was able to cover against Louisville in its most recent game last Thursday as a 3.5-point favorite on the road. Despite falling behind 21-0 early on, the team secured a 42-31 victory behind 401 passing yards.

These programs have not faced each other since 2011 when Virginia pulled of a big upset, winning 14-13 on the road as a 17-point underdog while totaling just 316 yards of offense. Interestingly enough, these two teams have played some low-scoring games, and the total has gone Under 8-of-10 times since 1992.

Bettors should know that the Seminoles are an impressive 11-1 ATS in home games after seven consecutive SU wins since 1992, but are also a poor 3-9 ATS (25%) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 in the past three seasons.

The Cavaliers have lost some of their receiving depth with WR Miles Gooch (knee) out for the season and WR Andre Levrone (shoulder) listed as questionable. For Florida State, QB Jameis Winston (ankle) is probable, while HB Mario Pender (ankle) is questionable.

Virginia has not looked horrible on offense thanks to a good balance between the passing game (243.9 YPG) and rushing attack (153.7 YPG), as the school is putting up a mere 26.7 PPG. QB Greyson Lambert (1,055 pass yards, 5 TD, 8 INT) has struggled over his past two games with four interceptions while connecting on less than 60% of his passes in each of those contests. He has been expected to throw more, and after attempting just 24.3 passes per game in his first four contests, he has thrown the ball an average of 36 times in the past two games.

HB Kevin Parks (626 rush yards, 4 TD) has averaged a low 4.2 YPC on the year while going over the century mark once. He has been able to contribute to the passing game as well with 24 catches for 139 yards (5.8 avg) while tallying two scores. WRs Darius Jennings (421 rec yards, 1 TD) and Canaan Severin (385 rec yards, 3 TD) will need to play at a higher level with the injuries to Gooch and Levrone, who have combined to catch 35 balls for 575 yards (16.4 avg) and 2 TD.

The defense has allowed the opposition to score 24.2 PPG on the year (51st in FBS) but has surrendered 27.7 PPG over a current three-game skid. DBs Quin Blanding (89 tackles, 2 INT) and Anthony Harris (81 tackles, 2 INT) will have the tough task of defending against former Heisman winner QB Jameis Winston in this one.

Florida State does most of its damage through the air at 327.3 passing YPG (9th in nation) and doing little on the ground (131.8 YPG) with 38.4 PPG (15th in FBS).

QB Jameis Winston (2,279 pass yards, 16 TD, 9 INT) has not had quite as prolific of a season as last year (4,057 pass yards, 40 TD, 10 INT), but he has topped 300 yards in 4-of-7 games while throwing eight touchdowns in his past three contests. He did struggle against Louisville last week with three picks and completed a season-low 52.1% of his passes while actually having his most yards on the year (401) in the comeback victory.

HB Karlos Williams (450 rush yards, 7 TD) has gone over 100 yards just once this year as the school focuses more on passing, which he has also contributed to with 143 yards on 15 catches (9.5 avg) while having at least one catch in every game played. HB Dalvin Cook (380 rush yards, 5 TD) has also done well as the change-of-pace back while averaging 5.6 YPC as a freshman and eclipsing the century mark twice in the past three contests.

WR Rashad Greene (853 rec yards, 4 TD) has been Winston’s go-to guy over the past two years and has six or more receptions in 6-of-8 games in 2014 while WRs Nick O’Leary (364 rec yards, 2 TD) and Jesus Wilson (356 rec yards, 4 TD) have been nice safety blankets.

LBs Reggie Northrup (67 tackles, 1 INT, 1 sack) and Terrance Smith (60 tackles, 4 TFL) have helped lead the defense, which is allowing 22.8 PPG (42nd in nation) for the season.

OREGON DUCKS (8-1) at UTAH UTES (6-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Oregon -8, Total: 60

No. 5 Oregon looks to remain in the driver’s seat in the Pac-12 as it hits the road Saturday night to take on No. 20 Utah.

The Ducks have bounced back nicely from a home loss to Arizona early in the season, winning their past four games by an average of 21.0 PPG. Oregon (5-4 ATS) is known for its offense, and has been able to build off high-scoring outputs in the past two seasons, going 9-1 ATS after scoring 24+ points in the first half in the previous game. The team has not won a game scoring less than 20 points since defeating California, 15-13, in 2010.

The Utes are looking to bounce back from a 19-16 overtime loss to Arizona State last week. Both 2014 losses for Utah (7-1 ATS) have been on a field goal to end the game, but the school is 18-8 ATS at home in the second half of the season under head coach Kyle Whittingham.

Last season, the Ducks won a 44-21 matchup in Eugene against the Utes. Oregon outgained Utah, 433-297 last season, but was dominated in a lot of other areas in the game, namely time of possession (Utah 35:57, Oregon 24:03).

The Ducks may be thin on both lines with OLs Matt Pierson (knee) and Andre Yruretagoyena both doubtful with knee injuries while DLs Arik Armstead (ankle) and Alex Balducci (leg) are both listed as questionable. The one injury of note for the Utes is S Tevin Carter, who is questionable with an undisclosed injury.

The Ducks offense is back to dominating, ranking 6th in the nation in scoring (45.4 PPG), 16th in passing (305.8 YPG) and 25th in rushing (228 YPG). The guy that gets all the hype, and rightfully so, is quarterback QB Marcus Mariota (2,541 pass yards, 410 rush yards, 33 total TD). While he does not look to run the ball as much as he did earlier in his career, Mariota still provides the big plays with his feet when he decides to run.

The offense has another emerging star in RB Royce Freeman (155 carries, 846 yards, 13 TD). Freeman is a big physical back (230 pounds) who has the ability to punish defenses. With so many of the Ducks offensive players being known for speed, defenses are caught off-guard by the physical presence in the backfield. RB Thomas Tyner (76 carries, 342 yards, 3 TD) and Byron Marshall (539 rec yards, 307 rush yards, 5 total TD) are two players that can produce big gains out of the backfield, giving Mariota a lot of help in his decision-making.

WR Devon Allen (29 catches, 517 yards, 6 TD) is a receiver who has world-class speed. He still needs to improve on his fundamentals, but when he catches the ball, he has a legitimate chance to take it the distance.

The Oregon defense allows a pedestrian 24.8 PPG (57th in nation), but played much better last week against Stanford, holding the Cardinal to only 16 points and 132 rushing yards. DB Erick Dargan (65 tackles, 5 INT, 2.5 TFL) is the playmaker on the unit who has the ability to cover a lot of ground in the secondary.

Utah is two field goals away from being undefeated. The Utes rank 40th in scoring (33.4 PPG), 42nd in rushing (198.1 YPG) and 111th in passing (175.3 YPG). QB Travis Wilson (1,084 pass yards, 9 TD, 0 INT) has been impressive after nearly retiring from football early in the offseason. He is not asked to go out and throw for a ton of yards, but he rarely makes mistakes and keeps his offense on the right path. Utah's top playmaker on the offensive side of the football is RB Devontae Booker (183 carries, 990 yards, 8 TD).

Defenses have focused on Booker all season long, but he has continued to dominate, rushing for at least 100 yards in five consecutive games. The air attack took a big hit though, when top WR Dres Anderson (22 catches, 355 yards, 4 TD) was declared out for the season last week. That will force WR Kenneth Scott (26 catches, 258 yards, 3 TD) to assume the No. 1 receiver role.

The offense is going to have to score some points, but if the Utes are going to get the victory, it will come down to their defense. Utah allows only 21.3 PPG (27th in nation) on the season, and held one of the best offenses in the country, Arizona State, to 19 points last week.

DEs Nate Orchard (12 sacks, 55 tackles, 14.5 TFL) and Hunter Dimick (9.5 sacks, 39 tackles, 11 TFL) comprise an elite pass-rushing duo that will have a huge role in this game. The pair will have to remain disciplined and not allow Mariota to get outside of the pocket. LB Gionni Paul (52 tackles, 4 INT, 2 sacks) is also a talented defensive player to look out for.

Check out more College Football Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!

Big 12 Battles
By Sportsbook.ag

BAYLOR BEARS (7-1) at OKLAHOMA SOONERS (6-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Oklahoma -6, Total: 72.5

No. 16 Oklahoma tries to remain in the Big 12 conference race when it hosts No. 10 Baylor on Saturday.

The Bears were able to bounce back from their first loss of the season (41-27 at West Virginia on Oct. 18) in a big way with a 60-14 pounding of Kansas last week. For Baylor, it has been key to score four touchdowns, as the club is 14-4 ATS when scoring at least 28 points over the past two seasons. The Sooners are also coming off a dominating victory, winning 59-14 at Iowa State to help ease the sting of losing at home to Kansas State on Oct. 18.

Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops has been very good at home late in the season during his career, going 19-9 ATS in November games. These two schools played last season in Waco, with the Bears dominating en route to the 41-12 victory. They outgained the Sooners, 459-237, including 255-87 on the ground. When these schools last met in Norman in 2012, Oklahoma prevailed 42-34 with the passing advantage of 277 yards to 172 yards.

Both teams are in pretty good shape for this contest, with no new injuries for Baylor and the possibility that the Sooners will have top skill players WR Sterling Shepard (groin) and RB Keith Ford (leg) both on the field for Saturday.

The Bears offense is one again one of the very best in the nation, ranking first in scoring (50.4 PPG), 5th in passing (349.9 YPG) and 22nd in rushing (241.3 YPG). Head coach Art Briles has built one of the most explosive offenses in the country during his time at Baylor, and this year is no different.

Quarterback Bryce Petty (2,034 pass yards, 23 total TD, 3 INT) has put up big numbers this year, but has not been near as accurate (54% completions) as he was last year (62% completions). Some of that has been because of injuries to receivers, as well as a lot of freshmen playing. However, despite some of the struggles, Petty did throw for 204 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT in his lone career start versus Oklahoma last year.

RB Shock Linwood (154 carries, 777 yards, 10 TD) has been the most consistent player on the Bears offense. With defenses so worried about the Baylor passing game, Linwood has a lot of room to run in the middle of the field. The Bears have a ton of talent at the receiver position, especially freshman WR K.D. Cannon (36 catches, 714 yards, 6 TD). Cannon is a blur with the ball, capable of taking it for six points at any given moment.

WR Corey Coleman (29 catches, 572 yards, 7 TD) is another young receiver who has shown to be an elite playmaker, while WR Antwan Goodley (29 catches, 480 yards, 4 TD) has dealt with a lot of injuries, but he is getting healthier each week.

For the Bears to get the victory, they are going to have to get a big performance from the defense that allows only 21.9 PPG (32nd in nation). LB Bryce Hager (63 tackles, 6 TFL, 2 FF) is the inspirational leader of the defense. He uses his speed to run from sideline-to-sideline, making it difficult for opposing backs to run the ball. Junior DE Shawn Oakman (6 sacks, 31 tackles, 12 TFL) has given the Bears a player that can get after the quarterback. The defense must step up against an offense that showed signs of breaking out of a slump.

After scoring less than 40 points in three consecutive games, the Sooners exploded for 59 points against Iowa State last week The offense now ranks 9th in FBS scoring (41.5 PPG), 24th in rushing (231.8 YPG) and 41st in passing (262.9 YPG).

After having a big game in the Sugar Bowl last season, expectations were high for QB Trevor Knight (2,051 pass yards, 17 total TD, 8 INT). He has been great at times this season, but he has also struggled at times. In the game against the Cyclones, he was able to throw 3 TD, but also tossed 2 INT. However, this mediocre passing game has forced the Sooners to become more of a running team.

RBs Samaje Perine (150 carries, 767 yards, 11 TD) and Alex Ross (53 carries, 295 yards, 5 TD) are one of the best rushing duos in college football. Perine was not the starter earlier in the season, but has shown that he has a bright future. At 243 pounds, he is a rare combination of size and speed, and has filled him more than admirably for injured RB Keith Ford (194 rush yards, 5.7 YPC, 5 TD in 3 games), who might return to the field for the first time since Week 3.

WR Sterling Shepard (50 catches, 957 yards, 5 TD) may not be 100 percent recovered from his groin injury, but he is still one of the best wideouts in the nation. In the loss to Kansas State two weeks ago, Shepard had 15 catches for 197 yards and one touchdown. The depth of the Sooners receivers has been a weakness this season, but WR Durron Neal (31 catches, 399 yards, 1 TD) is showing some potential.

Sophomore LB Dominique Alexander (61 tackles, 3 TFL) has the most tackles for a unit that ranks 31st in the nation in scoring defense (21.8 PPG allowed). CBs Zack Sanchez (5 INT, 10 PD, 30 tackles) and Julian Wilson (31 tackles, 8 PD and 1 INT for a TD) form the Big 12’s best cornerback duo, but they will be tested often against the Bears explosive passing game.

KANSAS STATE WILDCATS (7-1) at TCU HORNED FROGS (7-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: TCU- 6.5, Total: 57.5

The two teams in the Big 12 that control their own destiny in the playoff race battle on Saturday as No. 9 Kansas State visits No. 6 TCU.

The Wildcats enter this game on a five-game SU win streak and six-game ATS win surge, while the Horned Frogs have recovered from a their lone loss on Oct. 11 at Baylor with three straight victories. They barely kept the win streak alive last week at West Virginia, as they failed to cover the three-point spread in the narrow 31-30 victory, courtesy of a last-second field goal. K-State (6-2 ATS) has done a very good job of playing its best football against good teams in recent years, going 12-2 ATS over the past three seasons when facing teams with winning records. The Wildcats have also been very strong in conference play over the past three seasons, going 17-5 ATS versus Big 12 opponents.

Gary Patterson’s teams (7-1 ATS) have shown to be good at home when they are the favorite, going 40-27 ATS during his time as the school's head coach. K-State was able to get the victory against TCU last year, winning on a game field goal, 33-31. The Wildcats outgained the Horned Frogs, 411-348, with every other statistic being very close. Their only other recent meeting occurred in 2012 in Fort Worth, which KSU also won, prevailing by a 23-10 score.

On the injury front, KSU will miss LB Charmeachealle Moore (undisclosed) for the rest of the season, while TCU has three key players all questionable for Saturday in RB B.J. Catalon (shoulder), WR Deante' Gray (undisclosed) and DL Josh Carraway (upper body).

Kansas State enters this game ranked 16th in FBS scoring (38.3 PPG), 50th in passing (251.4 YPG) and 58th in rushing (172.8 YPG). Quarterback Jake Waters (1,878 pass yards, 404 rush yards, 18 total TD) has developed into one of the best signal callers in the Big 12. He has had to play through a shoulder injury for much of the season, but has not missed a beat.

The ground game for the Wildcats has been more by committee, with RB Charles Jones (92 carries, 431 yards, 11 TD) getting the bulk of the carries. He does a lot of his damage in the Wildcat formation, patiently waiting for the blocks to open up. On the outside, K-State has one of the top wide receivers in the nation in WR Tyler Lockett (49 rec, 682 yards, 5 TD). Lockett is a great route runner with the ability to break the big play at any given moment. Another valuable playmaker is WR Curry Sexton (49 catches, 609 yards, 3 TD), who has emerged as a great No. 2 receiver, and Waters' go-to guy on third down.

The KSU offense was expected to be the strength of the team, but the defense has been tremendous, allowing just 18.6 PPG (12th in nation). The Wildcats have given up 20 or more points in only four games this season. LB Jonathan Truman (73 tackles, 2 TFL) is the leading tackler on the team, and also the leader of the defensive unit. He struggled early in this season, but has played some great football as of late. DBs Dante Barnett (52 tackles, 7 PD, 4 TFL) and Randall Evans (37 tackles, 6 PD, 3 TFL) help form one of the most experienced and talented defensive-back duos in the conference.

The TCU offense is humming on all cylinders this season, ranking 2nd in the nation in scoring (48.0 PPG), 6th in passing (335.9 YPG) and 33rd in rushing (214.1 YPG). QB Trevone Boykin (2,472 pass yards, 423 rush yards, 32 total TD) is one of the top dual-threats in the country, with his improved passing making him a far more dangerous runner. The top rusher for the Horned Frogs is RB B.J. Catalon (98 carries, 493 yards, 10 TD), who is a physical runner who can bust it to the second level in a hurry. However, he is questionable for Saturday due to a shoulder injury, and his absence would make things more difficult for Boykin and the ground game.

WRs Josh Doctson (38 catches, 602 yards, 7 TD) and Kolby Listenbee (24 catches, 541 yards, 3 TD) are the top two receivers on the team, and are successful in different ways. Doctson makes the tough catches over the middle of the field while Listenbee is the big-play receiver who forces defenses to play a little deeper. Deante' Gray (29 catches, 486 yards, 7 TDs) is questionable in this game due to an undisclosed injury, and with the offense facing some health question marks, the defense of the Horned Frogs will be looked upon to do more.

The unit, which currently ranks 41st in the nation in points allowed (22.6 PPG), is led by one of the best defensive players in the country, LB Paul Dawson (91 tackles, 12 TFL, 4 sacks, 3 INT, 3 FR). Quarterbacks have to know where Dawson is on the field at all times, while his speed makes it tough for running backs to get to the outside. S Chris Hackett (4 INT, 54 tackles, 5 PD) is the top defensive back on the team, and will see a lot of time guarding both Lockett and Sexton.

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College football Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com

(17) Georgia Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats (+10)

With Todd Gurley suspended, Nick Chubb has really picked up the slack out of the back field. In the three games that Gurley has missed, the freshman has rushed for 501 yards and four touchdowns. The Bulldogs are coming off their first ATS loss without Gurley as they head into Kentucky, however.

Kentucky's defense will have its hands full with the Georgia rushing attack. The Wildcats rank 94th in the nation in stopping the run, allowing an average of 188.6 yards per game on the ground.

Presbyterian Blue Hose at (13) Ole Miss Rebels (OTB)

The Blue Hose are on pace for the best rushing season in its Division I era, posting an average of 182.8 yards per game. PC posted 175.6 rushing yards per game in 11 games in 2011, the current record.

Ole Miss will start life without WR Laquon Treadwell against Presbyterian. Treadwell, the Rebels leader in receptions and touchdown catches, fractured his leg last week.

(10) Baylor Bears at (16) Oklahoma Sooners (-6.5)

Baylor has scored at least one touchdown in 29 of 32 quarters of action this season, but the Bears seem to do most of their damage early. Baylor has scored at least one TD in the first quarter of all seven games this year and is outscoring opponents 137-35 in the opening quarter.

Oklahoma got a bit of a scare when Sterling Shepard strained his groin last week, but Bob Stoops told reporters early this week that “we’re optimistic that it will heal enough that he’ll be full speed (for Baylor)”. Shepard leads the Big 12 in receiving yards per game (119.6).

(24) Wisconsin Badgers at Purdue Boilermakers (+17)

With 19 total touchdowns, Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon ranks No. 2 nationally in scoring at 14.3 points per game, trailing only Western Michigan running back Jarvion Franklin (14.7).

The Boilermakers have been putting up an average of 27 ppg, but there's no single threat for defenses to key in on. Purdue has thrown 13 touchdown passes this season, but no receiver has caught more than one in a single game.

(20) Duke Blue Devils at Syracuse Orange (+3)

Duke boasts the highest-ranked offensive line in the country in regard to keeping its quarterback upright, surrendering just 0.50 sacks per game and a total of 4.0 this season.

The running game will be key for the Orange, who are 3-1 when someone rushes for 100-plus yards and 0-5 when none of their ballcarriers reach that mark.

Texas A&M Aggies at (3) Auburn Tigers (-23.5)

Texas A&M will turn to freshman Kyle Allen at quarterback for the second straight game after Kenny Hill's suspension by the team. "Operationally (Allen) was good there. That’s what you worry about with any young quarterback from an operational standpoint," Aggies coach Kevin Sumlin said this week. "Our communication could get better. We missed a couple signals on the perimeter, whether that’s the receivers or him."

Auburn certainly prefers to get into shootouts. Since 2005, the Tigers are 16-1 SU in games when teams both score 30 or more points.

(8) Notre Dame Fighting Irish at (12) Arizona State Sun Devils (-2.5)

Notre Dame has been in command of its games this year. The Irish have trailed for just 11.1 percent of the season, 53:27 out of 480:00 of action. The Irish have held the lead for 304:05 or 63.4 percent of the season.

ASU is facing its fifth AP-ranked opponent in the last five six played, which is the most the Sun Devils have played in such a short span ever. Against Top 25 teams during that span, the Sun Devils are 4-1 AU and 3-2 ATS.

(25) West Virginia Mountaineers at Texas Longhorns (+3.5)

"I thought I did a pretty terrible job of managing the game," WVU's Clink Trickett said after throwing two interceptions last week. "Couple turnovers - I've got to be able to hold on to the ball and be more conscious of that."

Home field has not meant an advantage for the Longhorns, as they are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS on their turf. "It's tough because this is supposed to be our home, and you're always expected to defend your home," Longhorns LB Jordan Hicks said this week.

Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks at (1) Mississippi State Bulldogs (OTB)

Skyhawks Abou Toure has been lighting in up on the ground over the past two weeks. In Tennessee-Martin's past two games, the senior has rushed for 348 yards and five touchdowns.

It is understandable why Dak Prescott is a leading Heisman candidate as he leads the nation in 200 yard passing/100 yard rushing games, achieving the feat four times this season.

Virginia Cavaliers at (2) Florida State Seminoles (-19.5)

When you look at Virginia's passing attack, the first thing you notice is balance. The Cavaliers are one of only four teams in FBS that have five or more players with at least 20 receptions, which means the FSU secondary will need to be ready for threats from all angles.

Jameis Winston has been outstanding while playing in Tallahassee during his career. The pivot has led the Seminoles to a 11-0 SU record and 9-2 ATS at home while outscoring opponents 255-37.

(18) UCLA Bruins at Washington Huskies (+4.5)

Despite winning their last two games (1-1 ATS), the Bruins have had serious penalty issues heading into the game versus Washington. UCLA has been penalized a combined 25 times for 239 yards in those previous two games. The Bruins rank 115 in the Nation seeing 8.2 flags per game.

Good news for the Washington Huskies offensive line as LG Dexter Charles is expected to return to the lineup. Charles miss the last two weeks after suffering a foot injury.

(22) Marshall Thundering Herd at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (OTB)

Along with No.1 Mississippi State and No. 2 Florida State, Marshall is one of three programs to remain unbeaten straight up. The best at the betting window of those three? The Thundering Herd, who are 6-2 against the spread (MSU 5-3 ATS, FSU 2-6 ATS).

Southern Miss coach Todd Monken was quick to defend quarterback Cole Weeks after a four-turnover performance one week ago. “It wasn't one guy,” Monken told the Hattiesburg American. “Because you might've had a protection issue and that's not necessarily the offensive line's fault. It might have been a running back. And a guy hits you when you're not looking and the ball comes out, I don't know how you can blame the quarterback for that.”

(9) Kansas State Wildcats at (7) TCU Horned Frogs (-6)

Kansas State is 39 of 42 in the red zone this season, including 25 straight scores (19 touchdowns and six field goals) during the past five games.

Though officially listed as questionable, TCU's RB B.J Catalon has not practiced all week. Catalon leads the Horned Frogs with 493 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns.

Colorado Buffaloes at (21) Arizona Wildcats (-16.5)

Colorado needs to stop their sudden case of the fumbles if they want to compete with Arizona. The Buffaloes lost three fumbles last week after recording only one in their first eight games.

"There are so many things we can do better," Wildcats coach Rich Rodriguez told reporters after the Wildcats were held to 255 yards, 80 on the ground, last week.

(4) Alabama Crimson Tide at (15) LSU Tigers (-3.5)

Since 2009, no defense has allowed fewer touchdowns than the Crimson Tide. Alabama’s defense has surrendered just 104 touchdowns over the last 75 games. That is 39 fewer than the second most in the nation (LSU with 143).

LSU is 46-3 in Saturday night games in Tiger Stadium under Les Miles. All three of those losses coming to teams that were either No. 1 at the time or reached No. 1 at some point during the year.

(11) Ohio State Buckeyes at (6) Michigan State Spartans (-3.5)

The Buckeyes have outscored their last six opponents by a combined 189-38 in the first half, shutting out the last two in the opening 30 minutes.

Smack talk is flying between the Spartans and Buckeyes. Senior Spartans LB Taiwan Jones called Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett a "way better QB" with a "better arm" than starter Braxton Miller.

(5) Oregon Ducks at (22) Utah Utes (+8)

Ducks LT Jake FIsher has been the key to a stellar offense. Oregon has not allowed a sack in four of the seven games the senior has played this season, but have given up 12 in the two games he has missed.

The Utes, who lead the netion with 39 sacks, are currently on pace to produce the second-highest sack total in the past decade of college football play.

Total Notes - Week 11
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 10 Recap

After watching a handful of shootouts in Week 9, the ‘under’ produced a 29-23-1 record last week. The “push” (59) occurred in the Louisiana Tech-Western Kentucky and that game could’ve went the other way. The Bulldogs destroyed the Hilltoppers 59-10 and that outcome occurred with only one touchdown scored in the final quarter.

Big Five Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

The ACC has 12 teams in action last weekend and eight of them scored 30 or more points. Despite those numbers, total bettors watched the ‘over/under’ go 3-3 in Week 10. Duke and Louisville were great ‘under’ bets this season but both watched the ‘over’ cash as their defensive units respectively allowed 42 and 48 points.

The ‘under’ produced a 4-2 record in the Big Ten last weekend and most of the results were clear-cut. The best total run in the conference belongs to Ohio State, who has now seen the ‘over’ cash in seven consecutive games.

Baylor and Oklahoma scored 60 and 59 points respectively in Week 10 as they cruised to double-digit wins and covers. Both of their results also helped the ‘over’ go 3-2 in Big 12 play last weekend. Coincidentally, the pair square off this Saturday.

UCLA defeated Arizona 17-7 last weekend and I sincerely hope you didn’t bet the ‘over’ (71.5) because it had absolutely no chance. We’ve seen that movie before this season and it will probably happen again. Including this result, the Pac-12 saw the ‘over/under’ go 3-3 in Week 10.

The ‘over’ went 4-3 in SEC play last week, with Tennessee’s 45-42 overtime win against South Carolina leading the charge. The “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” had some total bettors upset after last week’s results. Florida defeated Georgia 38-20 and ‘over’ (46) bettors cashed tickets but it wasn’t easy. The Gators scored not one but two touchdowns in the final two minutes. The Bulldogs (7-1) and Gators (6-1) have now seen the ‘over’ go a combined 13-2 this season.

Teams and Totals to Watch

Over 7-1
Ohio State: Buckeyes visit Spartans
Georgia: Bulldogs visit Kentucky
Tulsa: Golden Hurricane host SMU
Oklahoma: Sooners host Baylor

Under 8-0
San Diego State: Aztecs host Idaho

Under 7-1
Houston: Cougars host Tulane

Separation Saturday

Six games in Week 11 will feature games with ranked opponents squaring off.

While most look at the sides, we asked our VegasInsider.com Totals Expert James Manos to provide his quick thoughts on two of the marquee matchups that have received plenty of attention on the total at the betting counter.

Last year at Cowboys Stadium, Notre Dame defeated Arizona State 37-34 in a game that saw 34 points scored in the fourth quarter. The total on this game opened 54 ½, which was an error according to Manos.

He explained, “This number has been bet up from the opener and settled in here. The opener was an obvious mistake with 54.5 being a ridiculously low number for this matchup and bettors jumped all over it. The current number is better but still a tad bit low but I don't think you'll see much more movement unless you see a slight tick downward as some groups set up middles. I think we'll see a tightly contested higher scoring game in this one. These two met last year in a game that the Irish won 37-34 and I see little reason to expect much different results here. In that game both teams gained 425 yards of offense and the offenses controlled the pace of the game. Arizona State is playing at a similar pace (78.1 snaps per game this year, 81.5 last year) and is probably stronger on that side of the ball. The Irish are much better offensively than last season and QB Golson is playing at a high level. ASU is off three consecutive defensive minded conference games but have been a strong offensive team at home under HC Graham. The Irish have allowed 43, 31, and 39 points in their last three games and their defense has not looked good as the talent level of their opponents has risen. I made the number for this game 62 and would look OVER, even at the current number.”

A lot of pundits believe the winner of Saturday’s showdown between the Buckeyes and Spartans in East Lansing will claim the Big 10. In past encounters, most would lean to a slugfest but the landscape has changed and Manos has adjusted accordingly.

He said, “This game has been bet down from the opener but I'm willing to fade that line move and grab the line value with this lower total. We've talked a bit in this space about Michigan State games playing OVER the total this season and I see that continuing in this one. No doubting that the Spartans defense is talented but this will be the best offense they've faced so far this season and in their previous matchup versus a talented Top 15 team they gave up 46 at Oregon. Ohio State has solid defensive numbers as well surrendering just 19.9 PPG but the Buckeyes have faced a weak slate of opposing offenses and the Spartans will test them. Basically we have two defenses whose numbers are skewed by the talent level of their opposition. The Michigan State offense is under appreciated and I think they'll find some big plays in the passing game on Saturday. I have the Spartans offensive efficiency at 55.8% and I project them to score 30-plus points. Ohio State is averaging 78.9 offensive snaps per game up significantly from last season when these two played a 34-24 game in the Big 10 Championship game. Below are some quick total notes on the four other marquee matchups to watch this Saturday.

Baylor at Oklahoma: The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in this series with the winner eclipsing at least 41 points during this span. The Sooners (7-1) and Bears (5-3) have both leaned to the ‘over’ this season. This total opened 73.5 and dropped to 72.5, which is the highest number Oklahoma has seen this season.

Kansas State at TCU: These teams played to an unexpected shootout last season as Kansas State defeated TCU 33-31 at home as the ‘over’ (45) cashed. This year’s number is hovering around 57.5 points. Both teams have watched the ‘over’ go 5-3 this season. The Wildcats have scored 31, 32 and 31 in three road games while the Horned Frogs have averaged 47.8 points per game at home.

Alabama at LSU: The ‘under’ has gone 3-0-1 in the last four meetings and oddsmakers are expecting another slugfest on Saturday, sending out an opening total of 47 which has been pushed down to 45. The Crimson Tide are ranked second nationally in scoring defense (14 PPG) while LSU is ranked fourth (15.9 PPG).

Oregon at Utah: Last season, the Ducks rank past the Utes 44-21 at home. The rematch takes place in Salt Lake City and this game pits Oregon’s high-powered offense (45.4 PPG) against Utah’s stout defense (21.3 PPG). Oregon has watched the ‘over’ go 5-2-1 this season while Utah has been a solid ‘under’ (5-2-1) wager.

Line Moves

This segment has become a very popular feature of our weekly piece and all the credit should be directed towards Manos, who analyzes the line moves in the totals market for us and breaks them into four categories.

1) Correct Sharp Movement – Louisiana Lafayette/New Mexico State Over

2) Incorrect Sharp Movement – Louisiana Tech/UAB Under

3) Public Movement – Alabama/LSU Under

4) Market Manipulation – Ohio State/Michigan State Under