College Football Betting Preview: BYU at Wisconsin
By Otto Sports
Sportsmemo.com
BYU at Wisconsin
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener: Wisconsin -7.5 O/U 55.5
CRIS Current: Wisconsin -7.5 O/U 55.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Wisconsin -8.5
Marty Otto's Recommendation: Wisconsin
BYU makes the trek to Madison to face the red hot Wisconsin Badgers who come in off back to back conference road wins. This should prove to be a good matchup for a pair of teams that have had plenty of spread success this season (BYU 5-3 ATS, Wisconsin 7-0-1 ATS).
Wisconsin’s Gary Andersen is in his first year at the helm having come in from Utah State. Andersen is no stranger to BYU as his old side routinely caused the Cougars all sorts of trouble. He seems like a great fit here for the Badgers and his blue collar approach and willingness to lean on a three headed monster of a running attack has brought plenty of success.
The Badgers will pound the rock but it’s not just a “three yards and a cloud of dust” attack. Wiscy’s three main ball carriers – Melvin Gordon, James White and Corey Clement – all average more than 7.0 yards per carry this season and have combined for 25 touchdowns. Gordon in particular is a dynamo averaging more than 8.5 yards per carry this season. With those three humming along Wisconsin ranks 10th in the nation in rushing at roughly 290 yards per game. Their offensive line is one of the best units in the country and should be able to have success against BYU despite the Cougars solid front seven defense. Quarterback Joel Stave can make many plays to influence the game through the air, especially off play action but he just doesn’t have many weapons outside of wide receiver Jared Abbrederis and he’s a question mark midweek due to injury.
BYU may run a different style offense but they seem to really resemble the Badgers in terms of what they want to do with the football. The Cougars like to rely on the ground game to provide the foundation of their offense but rather than three stud running backs they prefer to split carries between QB Taysom Hill and RB Jamaal Williams. Hill has proven to be a dual threat weapon on his best days but is still a bit erratic throwing the football. He’ll be without his second leading receiver this weekend after JD Falsev broke his hand riding a surf simulator. Falsev’s injury is also an impact on special teams as he served as the punt return man.
The boys from Provo must feel they’re hitting their stride after a rocky start to the season as they’ve won five in a row. But we may need to take a couple of the “big” wins with a grain of salt: Both Utah State and Boise State were forced to play the majority of the game (if not the whole game) with a backup quarterback. It’ll be a tougher task here at Camp Randall where the Badgers are a remarkable 62-9 straight up since 2003.
Pointspread Prognosis
By Joe Gavazzi
North Carolina St. at Duke (-9)
First year NC St. HC Doeren, former HC at N. Illinois, is not used to these kinds of struggles. While his former team is again averaging over 44 PPG with an all-league QB, Doeren’s new team the Wolfpack, is struggling at 23 PPG with ample problems at the signal caller position. Last week, NC St. blew a 10-0 lead against rival NC in an eventual 27-19 loss. As a result, it is quite unusual to see a 3-5 SU ATS Wolfpack on a 4 game losing streak, looking up in the standings at 6-2 SU ATS Duke who is on a 4 game winning streak. The Blue Devils last victory clinched a Bowl invitation with a 13-10 win at VA Tech. With 2 weeks to rest, Duke is plenty pumped to break a 6 game series stranglehold by State and extend their record of 6-1 ATS as home chalk.
Florida St. (-35) at Wake Forest
Wake Forest lost their best offensive player last week when WR Campanaro left the game with what appears to be a season ending injury. Final: Syracuse 13-0 in a game where Wake Forest was outrushed 183-40. Such does not bode well for a Deacons team who lost 52-0 to Florida St. last year. Following the rivalry win vs. Miami FLA, the Seminoles may at first be considered a perfect letdown candidate in this spot. Until one considers, they are both a 200 CLUB MEMBER and DEFENSIVE DANDY, have an average win margin of 38 PPG, and will be looking for every style point they can get in their battle with Oregon for the No. 2 spot in the BCS.
Virginia Tech at Miami, FL (-7)
No one is going to want VA Tech in this spot. The thinking is that Beamer ball is long outdated with their 22 PPG offense. The last two weeks, Tech has lost as 13 point home favorite to Duke, 13-10, and as 4 point road favorite at Boston College, 34-27. A closer inspection of those contests shows that the Hokies committed 4 TOs each of the last 2 weeks, yet outgained those 2 opponents by an average of 173 YPG. With a record of 11-26 ATS of late, and 1-9 ATS away, players will be running for the hills as they back Miami FL to bounce back from their loss to rival Florida St. Nothing could be further from the truth, as we are eager to suit up with this DEFENSIVE DANDY in Virginia Tech as TD underdog. The Miami FL issues began 3 weeks ago with injuries to two of their most dynamic players WR Dorsett and RB Johnson. Though Johnson returned for the following game, he was reinjured last week and both will miss this contest. Since the injuries to both, Miami has gone 0-3 ATS failing to cover by 41 points in narrow victories by 4 over NC, 3 over Wake and last week’s 27 point loss to FSU. At this point in the season, undefeated letdown (1st loss after starting 7-0 SU) is a far greater probability than bounceback. In one of today’s shocking upsets, do not be surprised if it is the Hokies who get the bounceback.
Penn St. at Minnesota (-2-)
Last week, we had strong plays on both Penn St. and the OVER. We lost both. Up and down the field they went with Penn St. outrushing Illinois 251-89 (72% chance to cover as double rusher) and adding 240 yards through the air to become a 200 Club member (an 81% chance to cover). Add 322 air yards by the Illini, for over 900 yards of total offense, and it is a head-scratching result that Penn St. won just 24-17. Now this young Penn St. team takes to the road where they have gone 0-4 ATS recently including a 49 point loss at Ohio St. and 20 point loss at Indiana this year, in which they allowed at combined total of 103 points. With Minnesota HC Kill (seizures), looking on from the press box, the Gophers have responded to the on-field guidance of HC Claeys, the former defensive coordinator. The Gophers have pulled 3 consecutive upsets over Northwestern, Nebraska and Indiana covering by 48 points. Yet, this line has barely been adjusted to reflect such success. In last week’s victory against Indiana, the Gophers rolled up 573 yards. Quite a confidence boost. Let’s play the momentum of the home team to continue against a Penn St. team who has proven to be a poor traveler.
Missouri (-14-) at Kentucky
First reports this week are that veteran QB Franklin will be able to return sooner than expected. That may not be necessary, as in his absence, QB Mauk has performed with aplomb. When the Tigers did not suffer undefeated letdown in their 31-3 victory at home vs. Tennessee last week, many prognosticators assume the Tigers will Super surge through their schedule, win the SEC East, and meet Alabama in the SEC title game for the opportunity to potentially play for the National title. That, however, is a big leap with regular season games at Mississippi and vs. Texas A&M still remaining. That leaves THIS WEEK AS THE LETDOWN SPOT after facing Vandy, Georgia, Florida, South Caro and Tennessee in the last 5 weeks. Kentucky might not be much, but they played Louisville to within 14, South Caro within 7 and Miss St. within 6. After a confidence building 48-14 non con victory last week, this is just the spot that a momentum home dog could bite an unsuspecting visitor.
Virginia at North Carolina (-13-)
Loss of veteran of QB Renner for N. Carolina not as great a loss as first anticipated. HC Fedora has been successfully operating a 2 QB system with Marquise Williams who now figures to take the controls on a full-time basis. In a battle of 2 teams headed opposite directions, we are eager to back the Tarheels in this one. After a heart breaking 27-23 defeat to Miami FL, on this field 3 weeks ago, it looked like Carolina was road kill at 1-5 SU. Since, they have easily disposed of BC 34-10, then, trailing rival NC St. 10-0, rebounded for a 27-19 victory to save their season. Now, they enter with great momentum knowing that with this Virginia team, a trip to Pittsburgh followed by home games with ODU and Duke that a winning season is still in their grasp. This may be the easiest of those, in a series that has seen N. Carolina win and cover each of the last 3 meetings, by counts of 37-13, 28-17, and 44-10. For, now it is Virginia that looks like road kill. The Cavs enter on negative runs of 5-16-2 ATS including 2-7 ATS this season. Virginia is on a 6 game losing streak after being slaughtered by Clemson last week, 59-10, being outgained 610-277. They now must take to the road at 2-7 SU ATS following 3 consecutive home games to play for their 8th consecutive week. CAN YOU SAY TOWEL TOSSER? In the last 5 weeks, the Virginia defense has allowed an average of 41 PPG and 513 YPG. Tarheels, 7-3 ATS as home chalk under Fedora, roll to victory.
Vanderbilt at Florida (-10)
Never easy to lay double digits with a Florida offense that is averaging just 21 PPG and 335 YPG. Ravaged by injury, this 11-2 SU team from last season enters at 4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS on a 3 game losing streak to LSU, Missouri, and Georgia (all away from home). Despite the losing streak, they have remained a Defensive Dandy allowing just 17 PPG, 291 YPG and 4.9 YP Play. That is far better than a Vandy team whose defense is allowing 30 PPG. The Commodores have been trounced in a 32 point loss to A&M and a 23 point loss to Missouri in which they allowed a combined 107 points. I will back the bounceback here. Believing that Florida has reached the nadir of their discontent with a recent 3-11 ATS mark, must show a bit of caution with the knowledge that HC Muschamp is 1-9 ATS following a defeat.
Fresno St. (-10) at Wyoming
The undefeated 8-0 SU mark of Fresno, which has seen them score 35 or more points each game, is what is propping up this line for a team that is 2-6 ATS. Repeatedly, teams have come through the back door against them. That includes Nevada last week. In Fresno’s 41-23 win, no cover, they allowed the Wolfpack to run and pass for at least 206 yards. Hard to imagine a team that allows 29 PPG being an undefeated 8-0 SU. But that is also the reason why they are 2-6 ATS. One thing we know for sure is that Fresno will certainly not be a fan of the 7,000 ft. altitude and probable wind-chill factor on the high plains of Laramie Saturday. Though 4-4 SU ATS, Wyoming presents much the same profile behind QB Smith. Wyoming is a member of the 200 Club, with a defense allowing 32 PPG. So frustrated was Wyoming’s HC Christensen with the defense, that he fired DC Tormey after their last game, a 51-44 defeat at San Jose. With Fresno QB Carr matching Smith throw for throw, it is flying footballs into the wee hours of Sunday morning with the back door swinging wide open, at the worst for home underdog Wyoming.
Kansas St. at Texas Tech (-3)
Following a 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS start against Hart, Schaffner, and Marx, first year TTRR HC Kingsbury got caught looking in the mirror and reading press clippings. In the last 2 weeks, against real teams Oklahoma and Oklahoma St., the Red Raiders lost by 8 and 18 points allowing 45 PPG. With Kansas St., Baylor, and Texas remaining on the schedule, those endorsements may have to wait for Kingsbury. It sure won’t get any easier this week, when he goes up against the old master, Kansas St. HC Snyder. Snyder may have created the blueprint for countering these high-profile spread teams. Just like 2 weeks before, Oklahoma St. outrushed TTRR 281-124 in their resounding victory. After a 3 game losing streak, a rebuilding Kansas St. team stood 2-4 SU on the brink of disaster. Since that loss to Baylor, the Wildcats have pounded the rock in beating WVU and ISU, 76-19. Snyder has a record of 19-9 ATS as dog, L4Y and 19-5 ATS vs. Big 12 foes when his Wildcats are not playing at home. Make these Cats your Dog of the Day.
BYU at Wisconsin (-7-)
How about this? You are 6-2 SU for the year, 6-1 ATS, but you are laying less points at home than you would have opening day to a team that is 5-3 ATS. Hello, Wisconsin! BYU has become a flavor of the year. The Cougars enter on a 20-8 ATS run with an up-tempo, balanced 200 Club offense that is averaging 259/4.7 overland, 252/7.3 through the air, and running 90 plays a game. Quite a dichotomous style to the ground and pound style of Wisconsin who rambles overland for 287/6.7 and runs just 68 plays per game. Does the 3.7 rush defense of BYU slow the Badger? I think, not. I’m guessing there is reason for this odd, late season intersectional. You see, Wisconsin HC Andersen is a Utah guy. That includes coaching Utah St. Aggies in recent seasons. Last year, Utah St. lost 6-3 to BYU, one of Andersen’s 2 losses last season. This is his revenge game. At both Utah St. and Wisconsin, Andersen is now on an 18-3 ATS run including 7-1 ATS this season. Andersen has extended the dominant way in which the Badgers record their victories. In fact, 28/32 Wisconsin recent victories have come by 10 or more points.
Nevada at Colorado St. (-9)
We pay a price to back the positive momentum of Colorado St. in a battle of teams headed opposite directions. Long time Nevada HC Ault retired after last season leaving the Wolfpack in the hands of 1st year HC Brian Pollian, who had never been a HC prior to this season. Can you say Peter Principle? For it appears that Pollian has reached beyond his grasp. For the first time in 10 years, the Wolfpack will not be Bowling. Major problem is a defense that allows 37 PPG, at least 255 yards both running and passing, and 7.1 YP Play. They are one of 6 such Defensive Duds. The Pack has lost 4 straight games, to fall to 3-6 SU. QB Fajardo and whatever remains of the pistol under OC Rolovich is all that remains. Under 2nd year HC McElwain (former OC Alabama), the Rams are a team on the move. Following a 4-8 SU maiden voyage, McElwain’s Rams now stand 4-5 SU following a 42-30 loss to Boise last week. Major take from that game, however, is that Colorado St. outgained Boise with a balanced 626 yards to 437 for the Broncos. This is an emerging offensive team who has averaged 41 PPG in their last 5 outings. As such, these Rams will gouge the Wolfpack on every possession. Colorado St. has done their best work on this field where they have averaged 38 PPG and 549 YPG. This level of favoritism well deserved with an offense that should have their way all afternoon.
Texas (-6-) at West Virginia
Among our favorite situational plays in CFB is to fade home dogs who return following an outright road victory as double digit dog. Such is the case with these Mounties this week, who upset TCU 30-27. Despite being outgained, WVU profited from 4 critical TCU TOs to come away with the victory. Now, they return home where they are on overall runs of 5-12 ATS and 3-7 ATS on this field, dragging a defense that has allowed 564 YPG L5 games. They face a Texas team who will not lack for motivation. The Longhorns well remember being upset 48-45 as 7 point favorites against WVU last year. And, they are forewarned by the Mounties victory last week. With the Texas season on the verge of collapse, HC Brown fired DC Diaz and replaced him with veteran DC Robinson. Now, Texas enters on a 5 game winning streak keyed by a far improved defense that has recorded 18 sacks in those 5 wins. Longhorns know, this is a must win in their hopes for the Big 12 crown. With revenge as extra motivation, they record this double digit victory in style.
Nebraska at Michigan (-7)
Favor the concepts of home road dichotomy, revenge, and recent events for this ATS winner. Michigan HC Hoke is 19-0 SU on this field. Nebraska HC Pelini is 1-9 ATS away. Michigan is playing off a loss, an embarrassing 29-6 defeat at the hands of “little brother”. Hoke is 6-1 ATS/loss. Nebraska won last week 27-24 on a Hail Mary pass to end the game. Finally, Michigan well remembers last year’s results which saw them on the short end of a 23-9 score. Those 3 factors are the major difference between a pair of team who enters this contest at 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS.
Notre Dame (-4-) at Pittsburgh
Last year, Pitt came very close to spoiling the undefeated regular season of the Irish. As 16 point underdog in South Bend, the Panthers had plenty of chances to win the game that resulted in a 29-26 Fighting Irish victory. That contest epitomized this series which has seen the last 5 games decided by a total of 18 points with the underdog getting the Alpo in each contest. This is far from a vintage Notre Dame team of recent seasons. Though 7-2 SU and on a 4 game win streak, both the offense and defense are down a notch resulting in a 3-6 ATS log. Last week, they were fortunate to hold on for a 38-34 win vs. Navy who rushed for 331 yards against the Irish defense. The Pitt running game presents no such threat. We won our STEAMROLLER GOY against them last week with Georgia Tech (-10-) 21-10. In that game, the Yellowjackets went overland against the Panthers 276 to (-5). What Pitt does have, however, is a strong armed signal caller in QB Savage and a pair of dynamic receivers in Boyd and Street. Last week, we faded the Panthers because the left side of their offensive line missed the game with injuries. This week, both are expected to return allowing QB Savage to pick apart a Notre Dame defense allowing over 200 PYPG. Underdog history extended in another barn burner.
Mississippi St. at Texas A&M (-19)
At 4-4 SU, Miss St. must pick their battles if they hope to get to 6 wins. That will probably not be this week or next, at A&M and hosting Alabama. Chances are far better for the last 2 weeks of the season at Arkansas and hosting Ole Miss. State enters on an 0-4 ATS slide and is 1-8 ATS as conference road dog of late. HC Sumlin and QB Manziel have averaged 49 points and 583 yards. Miss. St. will not slow them down. But, as always, impossible for this bureau to lay points with confidence against a 30 PPG A&M defense who allows 200 YPG both running and passing.
Utah St. (-13-) at UNLV
This is a battle of 5-4 SU teams seeking the 6th victory for Bowl eligibility. QB Garretson is an ever improving signal caller in his effort to replace injured QB Keeton, the best signal caller in the league. He is ably supported by a veteran Aggie defense allowing just 19 PPG and 342 YPG. Therein lies the major difference between these two, as UNLV’s stop unit allows 34 PPG and 463 PPG. UNLV’s strong home field record of 18-7-1 ATS, including 10-5 ATS as home dog, is offset by Utah St.’s road ability which finds the Aggies 9-2 ATS away. Lay a value price now that QB Garretson is stepping up.
Arkansas St. at LA Monroe (-4-)
Ark St. is the 2 time reigning Sun Belt Champion under emerging coaches Freeze and Malzahn. Such excellence will not be achieved in the 1st year under new HC Harsin (Boise, Texas Asst.). The Red Wolves are clearly a notch below at 4-4 SU. They have been overpriced from previous success with a 2-6 ATS record. Snapping a 2-4 SU, 0-6 ATS run, with a 17-16 victory at S. Alabama last week, does not emit any warm and fuzzy feelings. The real deal is LA Monroe. Team leader QB Browning (quad) was thought to be lost for the year. He surprisingly emerged 2 games ago leading the Warhawks to a 38-10 victory vs. Georgia St. followed by a 49-37 win at Troy (we were right there!). Today we ride that momentum of QB Browning, who has passed for 9 TDs in those 2 games. 45-23 revenge against the defending champ is further motivation while the situation is in our favor as well. Ark St. plays consecutive road games, while Monroe has extra rest having played Thursday night last week.
Auburn (-7) at Tennessee
Under 1st year HC Jones, the Vols are struggling at 4-5 SU ATS with losses in their last 2 games to Missouri and Alabama by combined counts of 76-13. Now they go out of the frying pan and under the STEAMROLLER. Frosh QB Dobbs is learning under fire as a replacement for injured QB Worley. But the biggest concern for the Vols in this one, is their 200 Club defense that is allowing 202/5.1 overland. Each year in CFB, there is a team that emerges from nowhere to make a big splash. Three years ago, 1st year HC Malzahn mentored QB Newton in Auburn’s championship series. Two stops later, Malzahn is at the helm of the Tigers who enter today’s action with 4 consecutive wins and a record of 8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS. Combined with his work last year, Malzahn is a profitable 15-6 ATS. First year QB Marshall runs a dynamic offense with a trio of RBs in Mason, Grant, and Artis-Payne. They run for an average of 306/6.3. Just imagine what they will do to that Tennessee defensive front.
Houston at C. Florida (-10-)
This is going to run against the grain of a lot of handicappers who will kneejerk toward the 9-1 ATS run of Houston. These Cougar backers certainly were not scared off by the 6 point move on their Cats last week. But it cost them, as Houston settled for a 12 point victory, in their first ATS loss of the season. I see a second one coming today. While Houston’s toughest opponent (by far) was BYU, a 47-46 home loss. UCF has been far more battle tested. This team has won at Penn St., lost by only 3 at S. Carolina, and came from 21 down at Louisville to hang 38 on the tough Cardinals defense in a 3 point victory. After a 62-17 buffer on this field vs. UConn two weeks ago, the Knights are well refreshed in this battle for AAC superiority. Bright House Stadium is a tough venue where the Knights are 17-8 ATS as home chalk and veteran HC O’Leary is 15-8 ATS laying double digits. Love the experience and accuracy of QB Bortles at the helm for UCF. That greatly offsets the TO forcing machine that is the Houston defense. In the end, however, it is a UCF defense on the verge of Defensive Dandy status, that along with the explosive offense, keys this easier than expected victory.
UCLA (-1) at Arizona
Arizona RB Carey, a force with which to be reckoned, leads an Arizona ground game that averages 275/5.6. But, it is the return of RB James for UCLA that allows the Bruins to have the more balanced offense in this one. That is a key edge in a contest between 6-2 SU teams who have each tasted ATS defeat only 3 times. UCLA has the experience of playing at tough venues as they have already been victorious at Nebraska and Utah, while having experienced road games at Stanford and Oregon (their only 2 defeats). Arizona has played a far lighter slate having lost to Washington and USC, the 2 toughest teams they have played. Favor UCLA who has played the more difficult schedule, has established road ability, and has a more balanced offense.
LSU at Alabama (-13)
In the marquee matchup last week, double digit favorite Florida State, pulled away in the 2nd half for what appeared to be an easy cover. Such will not be the case in tonight’s primetime matchup. After 6 weeks of statistical dominance, No. 1 Alabama now qualifies as both a member of the 200 Club and Defensive Dandy. That 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS run in which the Tide has allowed 26 total points, has come against Colorado St., Ole Miss, GA St., Kentucky, Arkansas, and Tennessee. None of those teams has the offense comparable to that of LSU. For that opponent on the Alabama schedule, we must go to game 2, a 49-42 Alabama escape, when Johnny Football lit them up in consecutive seasons. LSU QB Mettenberger does not have the same mobility as Manziel, but he is every bit as accurate, the quality that makes Manziel such a dual threat. What LSU does have is two of the best WRs in the country in Beckham and Landry to give the Crimson Tide secondary (now playing without Sunseri) total fits. The point is, we don’t’ really know if this is an Alabama defense that is as good as the last two National championship editions. But, we sure will find out tonight. Series history certainly points to the LSU side. Saban is only 4-3 SU vs. Miles, while LSU is 5-1-2 ATS in this series at this site. With a pair of losses of 3 points each at GA and Ole Miss, the Tigers have removed themselves from National Championship contention. It means, they play this one fast and loose and in the role of spoiler that HC Miles must relish. This impost way too much in this fierce SEC-West rivalry. LSU the percentage side.
Line Moves - Week 11
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 10 Recap
Favorites: 2-3 ATS (5-0 SU)
Underdogs: 2-3 ATS (0-5 SU)
Totals: 1-0
Despite a bad run the past two weeks, the professional players kept firing away last week and they produced a 4-6 record against the spread with favorites and underdogs, plus the one total move was right as well.
Week 11 Line Moves
CRIS, one of the biggest offshore sportsbooks, opened up their college football lines for Week 11 last Sunday. Below are all of the moves of at least “Three Points” or more off the opening line from CRIS.
Favorites
Marshall vs. UAB
Open: Thundering Herd -20½
Friday: Thundering Herd -23½
Florida vs. Vanderbilt
Open: Gators -7½
Friday: Gators -10½
Underdogs
Wyoming vs. Fresno State
Open: Cowboys +14
Friday: Cowboys + 8½
Arizona vs. UCLA
Open: Wildcats +2½
Friday: Wildcats -2
West Virginia vs. Texas
Open: Mountaineers +8
Friday: Mountaineers +4½
Week 11 Total Moves
CRIS opened their ‘over/under’ numbers on Tuesday. Five games saw significant movement and they're listed below.
SMU at Cincinnati
Open: 64
Friday: 67
Penn State at Minnesota
Open: 53
Friday: 47½
Syracuse at Maryland
Open: 53½
Friday: 57
Nebraska at Michigan
Open: 63
Friday: 57
Mississippi State at Texas A&M
Open: 64
Friday: 67
Saturday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
LSU TIGERS (7-2) at ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (8-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Alabama -12.5 & 55
Opening Line & Total: Crimson Tide -11 & 55
No. 10 LSU will get its shot to take down the two-time reigning national champions when it travels to No. 1 Alabama Saturday night for an SEC showdown.
Alabama has been unbelievably dominant lately, giving up a total of 26 points in its past six games. The Crimson Tide are now 5-3 ATS this season, covering the spread in their past three games and four of their past five contests. LSU is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS in its past two games, crushing Furman last week after a disappointing loss as a 9.5-point road favorite to Ole Miss. Since LSU's 9-6 win in Tuscaloosa in 2011, Alabama won the national championship 21-0 in the rematch two months later, but needed a touchdown in the final minute of last year's matchup in Baton Rouge to win 21-17 after the Tigers had missed a couple of field goals. LSU outgained Alabama in that game 435 to 331 and its offense may lead the Tigers to victory in this one, as road underdogs averaging more than 450 yards per game, after gaining more than 7.25 yards per play in their previous game, are 36-8 ATS (82%) over the past five seasons. But Alabama is 13-3 ATS (81%) after gaining 7.25+ yards per play in its previous game under Nick Saban. Overall, LSU is 4-4-1 ATS this season including 1-1-1 ATS on the road. Saban’s squad is 5-3 ATS overall and 3-2 ATS at home.
LSU QB Zach Mettenberger has been tremendous this year, completing 65.4% of his passes for 2,492 yards and 19 TD, getting picked off seven times. The team lives and dies on his arm, as he threw three interceptions and only one touchdown in the team’s loss to Ole Miss. He was great in last year’s narrow defeat to Alabama, completing 24-of-35 passes for 298 yards and 1 TD. He almost exclusively throws to two targets in WRs Odell Beckham (48 catches, 1,009 yards, 8 TD) and Jarvis Landry (58 catches, 882 yards, 8 TD), both of whom have big-play ability. Landry caught the lone touchdown against the Tide last year. On the ground, RB Jeremy Hill bears the brunt of the workload and is nearing the 1,000-yard mark with 128 carries for 922 yards and 12 touchdowns. Hill rushed for 107 yards and a touchdown in last year’s meeting with Alabama. Reserve RBs Terrence Magee and Kenny Hilliard have also combined for 11 TD this year. The LSU defense has been stout against the run this season, yielding only 3.9 YPC. The Tigers have been decent, but not great, against the pass, holding opponents to a 57.9% completion rate.
Alabama’s defense has made its mark as one of the best in recent memory this year, only slipping up when it surrendered 42 points to Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M. Mettenberger will have his work cut out for him, going against a pass defense that has allowed opponents to complete only 49.6% of passes. The rush defense is giving up just 3.4 YPC. The offense hasn't been too shabby either. Heisman candidate QB AJ McCarron, who is now 33-2 as a starter in his career, marshals the Alabama offense. He has also been ultra efficient with 16 TD and 3 INT this year, completing 69.4% of his passes for 1,862 yards. He distributes the ball well, as six players have at least two receiving touchdowns. WRs Kevin Norwood (23 catches, 348 yards, 3 TD) and DeAndrew White (22 catches, 329 yards, 3 TD) lead the way. McCarron wasn’t great against LSU last year, completing only 14-of-27 passes, but he orchestrated a game-winning drive late in the game that he capped off with a touchdown pass. RB T.J. Yeldon caught that pass for his lone reception of the game. He leads Alabama this year in rushing with 115 carries for 729 yards and 10 touchdowns. RB Kenyan Drake also has seven scores with his legs.
MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (4-4) at TEXAS A&M AGGIES (7-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Texas A&M -6.5 & 56
Opening Line & Total: Aggies -7 & 56
No. 11 Texas A&M will look to win its third straight game (SU and ATS) when it hosts heavy underdog Mississippi State on Saturday afternoon.
The Aggies are just 4-5 ATS this season but have won two in a row, beating Vanderbilt and UTEP in consecutive weeks by a combined margin of 113 to 31. Those two big wins followed a disappointing 45-41 home loss to Auburn in which they were 12.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS this season, dropping their past four games ATS after a hot start. An upset appears unlikely for Mississippi State as the team is 0-13 SU and 3-10 ATS as an underdog over the past three years. Over the past two seasons, the Bulldogs are 0-7 ATS against teams with a winning percentage of more than 75%. That includes last year’s 38-13 home loss to the Aggies, when Texas A&M racked up 693 yards and moved the ball at will.
The Aggies offense is one of the best in the nation again this year, ranking fourth nationally in scoring (49.0 PPG) and sixth in passing yards (371.8 per game). That’s because QB Johnny Manziel is having another Heisman-caliber season, completing 200-of-276 of his passes (73%) for 2,867 yards with 26 touchdowns and only eight picks. He has also run for 564 yards and 8 TD on 96 carries, averaging 5.9 YPC. His top target through the air has been WR Mike Evans (52 catches, 1,147 yards, 12 TD), while 11 different Aggies have caught the ball in the end zone already this year. Supplementing Manziel’s production on the ground is RB Ben Malena, who has 89 carries for 456 yards (5.1 YPC) and eight touchdowns. Last year against the Bulldogs, Manziel completed an incredible 30-of-36 passes for 311 yards and ran for 129 more, scoring twice with his legs. Malena also had a big game, rushing for 112 yards on 17 carries. A&M’s defense has been its weakness this year, surrendering 5.1 YPC on the ground and 7.3 yards per attempt through the air.
Last year, the Bulldogs managed only 310 yards against the Aggies defense. But QB Dak Prescott is under center now. Prescott has completed 59.1% of his passes this year, throwing for five touchdowns and six interceptions. As those numbers suggest, he isn’t much of a threat through the air, but he can definitely make plays with his legs, racking up a team-high 568 yards on the ground on 6.0 YPC, while rushing for 10 scores. His top receiving target has been WR Jameon Lewis, who has four receiving touchdowns and 491 yards in 2013. The Mississippi State defense must limit Manziel more than it did last year. Their rush defense has been fine, giving up 4.4 YPC, while through the air they allow 6.8 yards per pass attempt, with opponents completing 60.8% of their passes.
TEXAS LONGHORNS (6-2) at WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (4-5)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Texas
Opening Line & Total: Longhorns
Texas looks to stay unbeaten in the Big 12 when it travels to Morgantown Saturday night to take on West Virginia.
Last season, these two teams squared off in Austin in what turned out to be one of the most entertaining games of the Big 12 season, with the Mountaineers holding on for a 48-45 victory. However things are different this year, as both teams have new quarterbacks running the show. Texas is led by Case McCoy, who has taken over for last year's starter David Ash, who remains out indefinitely with a concussion. While McCoy has not put up huge numbers, he has been solid and played smart football while relying on the Longhorns' top-notch running game (203 YPG, 29th in FBS). The problem for Texas has been consistency, as it has a tendency to play beneath its talent in some weeks. Through their first eight games, the Longhorns are 4-4 ATS, including failing to cover during their victory over Kansas last season. While the Mountaineers have struggled this season, they have shown the ability to play well at home as an underdog, defeating Oklahoma State 30-21 despite being 21-point underdogs on Sept. 28. Life without Geno Smith has been difficult, as the offense under current QB Clint Trickett has really struggled to find consistency. This has really hurt the team as the defense has improved greatly from last year. But the WVU defense has faced a good chunk of passing teams like Oklahoma State and Baylor, but has a different challenge this weekend against the run-first Longhorns. Texas failed to cover the big spread versus Kansas last week, but the school is 52-40 ATS (57%) after an ATS loss under head coach Mack Brown. A big trend favoring the Mountaineers is that any average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPC) facing a poor rushing defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPC) after 7+ games, after allowing 100 rushing yards or less in its last game is 33-8 ATS (81%) over the past five seasons.
While a lot of teams have one running back capable of having a big day, the Longhorns have three. Johnathan Gray (724 rush yards, 4 TD) leads the team this season, but Malcolm Brown was the guy that helped Texas defeat Kansas last weekend by rushing for 149 yards and four touchdowns. He has now rushed for 100 yards in two of the past three weeks. RB Joe Bergeron (5.6 YPC) has played sparingly during his team's five-game win streak with a total of 12 carries, but he rushed for four short touchdowns against WVU last year. Texas has finally begun to establish an identity on offense, and it is using the running game to set up the passing game, where it does have playmakers on the outside. WR Mike Davis (30 rec., 386 yards, 5 TD) is a talented wide receiver that can be dominant when he is focused. Davis has great size at 6-foot-2, but can also run away from the secondary as well. West Virginia is going to be looking to try and stop the run of the Longhorns, which should set up some opportunities deep down the field for McCoy (1,188 pass yards, 7.0 YPA, 5 TD, 5 INT) to take his chances through the air. The defense is starting to turn the corner, allowing just 13.3 points per game in their past three contests. Linebacker Steve Edmond has played very well this season, totaling 47 tackles, two sacks and one interception. He is a big strong linebacker that also has the ability to run side-to-side. The defense must continue to play well, and force WVU QB Clint Trickett to have to get outside the pocket.
Trickett has thrown for 1,218 yards and five touchdowns this season, but has also thrown five interceptions as well. He is coming off one of his better performances of the year in leading his Mountaineers to a 30-27 victory over TCU last weekend, throwing for 267 yards and two touchdowns. Luckily for Trickett, he has one of the best running backs in the Big 12 in Charles Sims, who has rushed for 754 yards and five touchdowns on the season, and is also coming off a big game against TCU with 189 total yards and 2 TD. The Mountaineers are going to play very similar to the way the Longhorns will, as they will try to run the ball to help set up the passing game. With a defense that struggles to stop teams, they must win the time of possession battle and keep the Texas offense off the field. The WVU defense allows 30.0 PPG, which ranks 92nd in the country. In conference play, it has been even worst, at 35.5 PPG. One of the big problems on defense is the inability to make the tackle. The Mountaineers have decent speed and can run around well, but allow too many runners to get extra yards after contact. LB Nick Kwiatkoski has started to play well for the Mountaineers, averaging 7.9 tackles per game. He also had an interception last weekend, and must be proficient in shedding blockers to tackle the Longhorns running backs.
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LSU at Alabama
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Matchup: LSU Tigers (7-2 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) at Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS)
Venue: Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama (Grass)
Date: Saturday, Nov. 8, 2013
Time/TV: 8:00 pm. ET - CBS
Line: Alabama -12½, Over/Under 55
Last Meeting: 2012, Alabama (-7) 21 at LSU 7
Alabama’s quest to win a third consecutive national title will continue Saturday night at Bryant-Denny Stadium where the Crimson Tide will host LSU. This will be the first significant test for Nick Saban’s team since September.
As of late Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Alabama (straight up, against the spread) listed as a 12.5-point home favorite with a total of 55 for ‘over/under’ wagers. The Tigers are +425 on the money line (risk $100 to win $425). For first-half wagers, ‘Bama is favored by seven with a total of 27.5.
Alabama hasn’t faced a team with a winning record since beating Ole Miss 26-0 at home on Sep. 28. Since winning 49-42 at Texas A&M in Week 3, the Tide has allowed only 26 points in six games. The ‘Bama defense is ranked fifth nationally in total defense and is tops in scoring defense, giving up only 9.8 points per game despite surrendering 42 to the Aggies.
Both schools had an open date to prep for this SEC showdown. In its last outing, Saban’s bunch smashed Tennessee 45-10 as a 28.5-point home favorite. A.J. McCarron threw for 275 yards and a pair of touchdowns without an interception, while T.J. Yeldon had three rushing scores.
For the season, McCarron has a 16/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has a deep set of wide receivers and has spread his TD passes around to nine different teammates.
Yeldon is the Tide’s leading rusher with 729 yards and 10 TDs. The true sophomore, who scored the game-winning TD on a screen pass from McCarron at LSU last season, averages 6.3 yards per carry.
LSU (7-2 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) has seven wins by double-digit margins and its two defeats came by a field goal. The Tigers’ best scalps came in home wins over Auburn and Florida. They are coming off a 48-16 non-covering home win over Furman.
Senior QB Zach Mettenberger got off to a great start in the first seven games, throwing 15 TD passes compared to only two interceptions. However, he threw three picks in a 27-24 loss at Ole Miss and was also intercepted twice by the Paladins.
Mettenberger has two of the SEC’s best WRs at his disposal. Odell Beckham Jr. has 48 receptions for 1,009 yards and eight TDs, while Jarvis Landry has 58 catches for 882 yards and eight TDs. Les Miles has a four-deep backfield led by sophomore Jeremy Hill, who has rushed for 922 yards and 12 TDs while averaging 7.2 YPC. Back-up RBs Terrence Magee and Kenny Hilliard have combined for 11 rushing scores.
I think LSU goes into this game with a nothing-to-lose attitude. The Tigers are double-digit ‘dogs and out of the national-title hunt, and that’s make them very dangerous. Miles loves to take chances and ‘The Hat’ will pull out stops to get a victory, so don’t be shocked by trick plays, special-teams fakes or going for it on fourth down in low-percentage situations.
As a road underdog during Miles’s nine-year tenure, LSU owns a 5-6-1 spread record. Meanwhile, Alabama has compiled a 21-22 ATS mark under Saban.
The ‘over’ is 4-3-1 overall for ‘Bama, but the ‘under’ is 3-2 in its home games. The Tide’s games have averaged a combined score of 51 points per game.
The ‘over’ is 7-2 overall for LSU, 3-1 in its road assignments. The Tigers’ games have averaged a combined score of 62.1 PPG.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Illinois is 1-6 ATS as a road underdog during Tim Beckman’s tenure. The Illini is a nine-point ‘dog Saturday at Indiana.
Sportsbook.ag has Alabama listed as a three-point favorite vs. FSU in a potential BCS Championship Game matchup.
ULM senior QB Kolton Browning has nine TD passes without an interception in the two games he’s played since returning from a torn quad injury.
Iowa is 3-0 ATS on the road this year. The Hawkeyes are favored by 14.5 at Purdue.
Since 2010, SMU is 4-10 ATS as a road underdog. The Mustangs are catching nine points at Cincinnati.
Penn St. is 0-3 ATS on the road this season. The Nittany Lions are 2.5-point underdogs at Minnesota.
Eastern Michigan is an abysmal 1-8 both SU and ATS this season. Those results cost Ron English his job when he was fired on Friday. Not sure why the school didn’t take this action on Monday, seeing how the Eagles host Western Michigan as a 2.5-point underdog Saturday.
The SI Jinx never fails. This week’s victim was Oregon’s Marcus Mariota.
UCLA RB Jordon James (ankle) is ‘out’ at Arizona along with three starters on the offensive line. This is why Brett Hundley hasn’t played to his potential over the last month.
Although he briefly left the team earlier this week to be with his family after his mother lost her battle with colon cancer, Mississippi St. QB Dak Prescott will start at Texas A&M.
As of late Friday afternoon, there was still no word on whether or not Missouri QB James Franklin would start at Kentucky. I don’t think bettors should spend much time worry about this because back-up Maty Mauk has been sharp, throwing three TDs without an interception in last week’s 31-3 win over Tennessee.