College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, October 18

Top 25 Betting Recap - Week 7
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com

Week 7 of the 2014 NCAA football betting season is in the books, and today, we're going to be taking a look at each of the Top 25 teams in the rankings and see how they did from an ATS perspective in this go around this past week.

(Results in parentheses represent SU Result-ATS Result)

1) Florida State (W-L vs. Syracuse 38-20)
The Noles never broke a sweat against Syracuse, but they were never good enough to cover either.

2) Auburn (L-L vs. Mississippi State 38-23)
Home field advantage is really going to be key in the SEC West this year, and Auburn fell victim to all of the cowbells in Starkville.

3) Baylor (W-L vs. TCU 61-58)
The Bears rallied with 24 straight in the fourth to take down TCU and live to fight another day on Survival Saturday.

4) Ole Miss (W-W vs. Texas A&M 35-20)
All of the hype is around MSU, but Ole Miss legitimately has a claim to No. 1 as well after putting forth a dominating performance on the road in College Station a week after upsetting annual powerhouse Alabama.

5) Notre Dame (W-L vs. North Carolina 50-43)
Up Next) A date with the defending champs. Notre Dame's defense looked like it was already looking ahead to Jameis Winston and the gang in Tallahassee before dealing with UNC.

6) Mississippi State (W-W vs. Auburn 38-23)
Dan Mullen has brought the Bulldogs all the way up to the No. 1 team in the land.

7) Alabama (W-L vs. Arkansas 14-13)
The Tide look like anything but a legit playoff team right now. They were lucky to escape Fayetteville with their playoff hopes still intact.

8) Michigan State (W-L vs. Purdue 45-31)
A late pick six was all that made this game look more respectable than it really was for Sparty.

9) Oklahoma (W-L vs. Texas 31-26)
The Sooners went 1-for-11 on third downs and were outgained by 250 yards in the Red River Rivalry, but they lived to tell about it.

10) Georgia (W-W vs. Missouri 34-0)
No Todd Gurley? No problems for the Bulldogs. Likely the most impressive win of the Richt era.

11) Oregon (W-W vs. UCLA 42-30)
There are still really big problems along the offensive line for the Ducks, who are barely skating by.

12) TCU (L-L vs. Baylor 61-58)
The Horned Frogs will rue the day that they let one get away in Waco.

13) Arizona (L-L vs. USC 28-26)
We knew that the Wildcats were always fools' gold. There's a reason the oddsmakers opened them up as dogs against an unranked USC team at home.

14) Texas A&M (L-L vs. Ole Miss 35-20)
Kiss A&M's chances of playing in the first playoff goodbye after a second straight loss to a Mississippi school.

15) Ohio State (Bye)

16) Kansas State (Bye)

17) UCLA (L-L vs. UCLA 42-30)
The Bruins had fighting on their bench between coaches, and that's not something you see every day.

18) Oklahoma State (W-L vs. Kansas 27-20)
The Pokes were on high upset alert most of the day before squeaking out a win in Lawrence.

19) East Carolina (W-L vs. South Florida 28-17)
It took 30 minutes for the Pirates to wake up, but they finally downed a bad USF team.

20) Arizona State (Bye)

21) Nebraska (Bye)

22) Stanford (W-W vs. Washington State 34-17)
A week after Connor Halliday broke the NCAA record for passing yards in a game, he had zip going against the Cardinal.

23) Georgia Tech (L-L vs. Duke 31-25)
The Ramblin' Wreck lost to Duke for the first time in a decade and a half on Saturday.

24) Missouri (L-L vs. Georgia 34-0)
Maty Mauk and the Mizzou offense were just downright embarrassing on Saturday.

25) Clemson (W-L vs. Louisville 23-17)
The win meant nothing. Deshaun Watson's broken hand meant everything. The freshman phenom will now be out for at least a month with this injury.

Bad Company - Week 8
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

As conference season continues to roll on, the pointspreads aren’t as heavy as they were during non-league play. There are still plenty of awful teams out there looking to get through a miserable season and gives bettors a chance to fade them. We’ll start this week’s action inside the ACC with a team that has lost 11 consecutive conference games and is receiving plenty of points on the road.

N.C. State (+17) at Louisville

The wheels have officially fallen off the Wolfpack wagon as N.C. State coach Dave Doeren suspended seven players for Saturday’s game at Louisville for a BB gun incident. The Wolfpack has shot themselves in the foot plenty of times this season, including blowing a 24-7 lead to top-ranked Florida State before allowing 49 points in the final three quarters. N.C. State hasn’t won a conference game under Doeren, while posting an 0-11 SU and 3-8 ATS record inside the ACC since the start of last season.

The Wolfpack travels to Louisville, as the Cardinals fell to 2-2 in ACC play after a 23-17 defeat at Clemson as 8 ½-point underdogs. Louisville’s defense has been solid all season long, not allowing more than 23 points in any of its seven games, while cashing the ‘under’ six times. In Bobby Petrino’s last 20 games as a home favorite at Louisville, the Cardinals have covered 17 times, including a 2-1 ATS record this season.

Cincinnati (-14) vs. SMU

Looking at this matchup, some would ask if the wrong team to fade is listed with SMU owning an 0-5 record. The Mustangs have been abysmal offensively this season, but showed some signs of life in a 45-24 setback at East Carolina two weeks ago to cover as a hefty 40-point underdog. The 24-point output by SMU doubled the amount of points it scored in the previous four games combined. Going back to the negatives with the Mustangs, this team has allowed at least 43 points in all five losses, while their only cover of the season came against ECU.

Cincinnati’s defense has been shredded all season, allowing 146 points in its past three defeats, including giving up 55 points in last week’s loss at Miami. The Bearcats have been outgained on the ground by at least 200 yards in the previous three games, while allowing 335 yards to the Hurricanes last week. From a pointspread standpoint, UC hasn’t covered in the past four contests, including an 0-2 SU/ATS record on the road. Cincinnati beat SMU last season at home, 38-35, but didn’t cash as seven-point favorites.

Ball State (+9½) at Central Michigan

Ball State dominated Colgate in its season opener, but the Cardinals haven’t won since, dropping five straight games. The Cards did cash as double-digit underdogs at Iowa and Toledo, but have allowed 75 points in the past two losses to Army and Western Michigan. Ball State’s defense is giving up nearly 200 yards a game on the ground, as this team has gone backwards since going 7-1 in MAC play last season.

Central Michigan has bounced back since a three-game losing streak following a 2-0 start, beating Ohio and Northern Illinois in the past two weeks. In those victories, the Chippewas rushed for 234 and 283 yards, which could spell major problems for Ball State’s anemic run defense. Central Michigan has plenty to play for against Ball State, considering the Cardinals have won four straight meetings in the series.

Kent (+5) vs. Army

The Golden Flashes are winless through six games, while not eclipsing the 17-point mark in any contest this season. Kent has been outgained in each loss, as the Golden Flashes were destroyed by previously winless UMass last week, 40-17 as three-point favorites. The lone game that Kent actually cashed came as 26-point underdogs at Northern Illinois in a 17-14 setback, while dropping 14 of its past 17 games dating back to last season.

Army has won just once in the past five games since a season-opening victory over Buffalo, while losing outright as a road favorite at Yale and Wake Forest. This seems like each team is fade material in this matchup, but the Black Knights are 2-0 against MAC opponents, beating Ball State and Buffalo, but each victory came at home. Army has dropped 18 straight road games with its last victory in a true away contest coming in 2010 at Kent State, so tread lightly here.

Georgia State (+17½) at South Alabama

This Sun Belt matchup won’t get a lot of attention on Saturday, as Georgia State has dropped five consecutive games. The Panthers have given up at least 34 points in all six contests, while coming off a 52-10 home defeat to Arkansas State last week. However, Georgia State has covered each of its two road games at Washington (+34 ½) and Louisiana-Lafayette (+16), while going 6-1 ATS in the away underdog role since the start of last season.

South Alabama returns home off back-to-back road victories at Idaho and Appalachian State, but the Jaguars scored a combined nine points in home losses to Georgia Southern and Mississippi State. The Jaguars have performed well since the end of last season in the favorite role, posting a 6-0 SU/ATS record.

ACC Report - Week 8
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Syracuse at Wake Forest

If you're a fan of offense, you probably won't want to tune into this game. The under is 3-1-1 in the past five games for Syracuse, and the under is 20-6 in the past 26 for Wake Forest. In addition, the under is 21-8 for the Demon Deacons in their past 29 ACC contests, and 7-1 in their past eight home games. The Syracuse offense, which wasn't that great to start, has been in a bit of disarray with QB Terrel Hunt (leg) going down to a fractured leg. They have scored 20 or fewer points in four straight games (all losses), and they're just 1-3 ATS during that span. Wake hasn't been much better, winning just once in the past four, but they are 3-1 ATS during the stretch.

Virginia at Duke

I am personally looking forward to this game, mainly because I'll be in attendance. The Cavaliers hit the road for just the second time this season, and first time since Sept. 20, a loss at Brigham Young. UVA have been cover kings this season, going 5-0-1 ATS officially, and 6-0 ATS at certain shops. Meanwhile, just when you thought Duke was about to revert back to its 'old' form, they end a 10-year losing streak against Georgia Tech on the road last week. Following a setback in Miami, the Blue Devils were in a tough spot, but they came away with a 31-25 road win against the Ramblin' Wreck to keep themselves very much front and center in the Coastal Division. Duke is 3-1 ATS over the past four games, and the under has the same 3-1 record over the stretch. UVA is 3-0-1 ATS over the past four ACC games, and 5-0-1 ATS in the past six against a team with a winning record, while going 5-2 ATS in the past seven road contests. However, in the month of October, UVA is just 1-5-2 ATS in the past eight. Duke is 7-1 ATS in the past eight against winning teams, and 16-4-1 ATS in the past 21 in October. They're also 11-3-1 ATS in the past 15 overall, and 15-5-1 ATS in the past 21 at home.

North Carolina State at Louisville

Things have gone south in a hurry in Raleigh. After a 4-0 start, and a close loss against then top-ranked Florida State, the Wolfpack laid an egg at Clemson, and then were routed in a soggy game at home against Boston College last week. N.C. State is 3-9 ATS in the past 12, 1-6 ATS in the past seven conference games, and 2-6 ATS in the past eight agaisnt winning teams. Louisville is 4-0 ATS in the past four against a team with a winning mark, and 7-2 ATS in the past nine overall. They're also 16-5 ATS in their past 21 games stretching back to the AAC/Big East. The Cardinals are favored by two touchdowns in this game, and Louisville is 2-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite or more this season.

Clemson at Boston College

The Clemson offense had been on a roll since QB Deshaun Watson (finger) took the reins, but he suffered a small broken bone in his throwing hand last week against Louisville. He needed surgery to have four screws put into his finger, and he will be sidelined up to a month. The team turns back to senior QB Cole Stoudt to run things. In three games Stoudt has finished, the Tigers are just 1-2 ATS. BC was impressive in a 30-14 win at N.C. State last weekend, and they're now 7-3 ATS in their past 10 conference tilts, and 7-3 ATS in the past 10 against teams with a winning record. Keep in mind that BC is also 10-4 ATS in their past 14 home games, including 5-0 ATS in their past five at home gainst a team with a winning road record. The Eagles are a five-point dog at home Saturday, but it looks like a nearly 60-40 split backing Clemson.

Georgia Tech at North Carolina

Georgia Tech looks to get back on track after its first setback of the season, and what better team to face than UNC and its leaky defense. Opponents have hung 50 or more points on the Tar Heels in three of the past four games, and they have given up at least 27 points in all six games this season. While UNC has dropped four in a row, the offense did come alive for 43 points at Notre Dame last weekend for their first cover in six tries this season. Georgia Tech has scored at least 25 points in all six games this year, although the under has cashed in three consecutive games.

Notre Dame at Florida State

The game everyone is looking forward to this weekend will be in Tallahassee, when the Irish and Seminoles renew acquaintances. Notre Dame might have been looking ahead last week, as they barely dispatched a poor UNC team, 50-43. Meanwhile, FSU hit the road for Syracuse, and won by 18. However, they failed to cover for the fifth time in six games. They're just 1-4 ATS this season as a double-digit favorite, and they're just 1-2 ATS in three home games overall. The Irish are 5-0 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning home record, and 3-1-1 ATS in their past five following up an ATS loss. The 'Noles have managed a 1-6 ATS mark in their past seven overall, but they are 5-2 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record.

Pac-12 Report - Week 8
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

UCLA at California

UCLA hits the road for Berkeley looking to stop a two-game losing streak. Cal crashed back to Earth in a big way last week, getting humbled by Washington by a 31-7 score. The Golden Bears started out 3-0 ATS, but they're just 1-2 ATS over the past three. Conversely, the Bruins have managed just one cover in six tries this season. California is just 4-12 ATS in the past 16 against a team with a winning overall record, and 4-14 ATS in the past 18 conference games. The home team has managed to cover four straight in this series, and the Bruins are just 2-6 ATS in their past eight trips to Berkeley. Currently, UCLA finds itself as a touchdown favorite on the road. The underdog is also 12-5-1 ATS in the past 18 meetings in the series.

Colorado at Southern California

The Buffaloes of Colorado might be regretting their decision to join the Pac-12, at least on the football side of things. They haven't been much of a factor, and are again winless in three games to start this season in conference play. However, on a positive note, Colorado has covered three of its past four games. USC has alternated wins and losses over the past four games, and alternated covers, too. At home this season they are 2-1 SU/ATS. Over the past 11 Pac-12 conference games, the Trojans have pulled off covers in eight games, and they're 6-2 ATS in their past eight at the Coliseum.

Washington at Oregon

It seems like Washington has come out of nowhere, rolling out to a 5-1 record overall. They face their biggest test at Oregon Saturday in a game which could really re-establish the program as a national contender. The Huskies smashed Cal 31-7 last week on the road, and they have covered each of their two conference games this season while the 'under' has hit in four straight, and five of six this season. Oregon restored order last week at UCLA, winning and covering after their shocking loss to Arizona Oct. 2. The Ducks are still just 3-8 ATS in the past 11, however, and 1-5 ATS in their past six home games. Autzen Stadium has been a house of horrors for U-Dub, however, as the Huskies are 0-5-1 ATS in their past six trips to Eugene. Overall, Washington is just 1-9-1 ATS in the past 11 against Oregon.

Stanford at Arizona State

This Pac-12 tilt will be one of the most interesting of the weekend. Neither team can afford a second loss in Pac-12 play, if they wish to remain in the hunt for a berth in the conference title game. Stanford was impressive last time out against Washington State, winning 34-17, barely covering for some, pushing for others. Their defense continues to be suffocating, posting a fifth straight under. In fact, the Cardinal have allowed 17 or fewer points in each of their six games this season. AZ State has gotten solid play from backup QB Mike Bercovici over the past couple of games, as he subs for the injured QB Taylor Kelly. Arizona State has scored 38 or more points in four wins this season. In this series, Stanford is 3-0-1 ATS in the past four meetings, and the favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven in this series. The home team has managed a solid 9-3-1 ATS in the past 13 meetings, while the under is 5-2 in the past seven battles.

Big Ten Report - Week 8
By ASAWins.com

Game of the Week

Michigan State (-13.5) at Indiana

For the second straight week, Michigan State is off another win in which they allowed the inferior opponent to hang around too long. Purdue came back from three touchdowns behind to get the football with a chance to tie or win in the final minute before a pick-six clinched the 45-31 victory for MSU. Sparty had no problem moving the ball against Purdue, notching 532 total yards behind big days by QB Cook (238 pass yds, 3 TD) and RB's Langford & Hill (combined 174 rush yds, 2 TD). It was a bit concerning that the Spartans vaunted defense allowed Purdue to rush for 5.2 YPC and allowed unproven QB Appleby to complete 24-of-37 passes. If Michigan State wants a shot at the Playoff, they'll have to start winning more impressively. The Spartans' 4th ranked scoring offense should have no problem scoring points against this Indiana defense that again ranks at or near the bottom of the B1G in every major statistical category. Last week the Hoosiers allowed a struggling Iowa offense to gain 426 yards and score 45 points in the 16-point Hawkeyes win. Indiana QB Sudfeld separated his shoulder in that loss and will likely miss the remainder of the season. His replacement, Covington, is a true freshman who was recruited to play safety before being moved to the QB position just a few months ago. After replacing Sudfeld last week, Covington completed just 3-of-12 passes for 31 yards with 2 INT. Now he has the seemingly impossible task of going against this 12th ranked MSU defense in his first career start. Indiana will try to get RB Coleman - who leads the FBS in rush yards - going against this MSU run-defense that ranks 5th in rush yards allowed. Michigan State is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings with Indiana. The Hoosiers are 6-2 ATS in the last eight home games as an underdog of 10+ points.

Ohio State (-19) vs Rutgers

OSU & Rutgers are both off of a bye week entering this weekend's matchup in Columbus. After a poor performance against Virginia Tech in which he completed 9-of-29 passes with 1 TD and 3 INT, OSU's J.T. Barrett has completed 75.2% of his passes for 303 YPG with 14 TD and just 1 INT in the last three games. He was masterful in OSU's win over Maryland, finishing 18-of-23 for 267 yards with 4 TD and 0 INT while scoring 1 rush TD for good measure. The Bucks have now scored 50+ points in three consecutive games as this young offense grows more and more comfortable in Urban Meyer's scheme. Defensively the Buckeyes young group continues to improve and they are off of a game in which they shutdown a solid Maryland offense. They allowed Maryland QB's to complete just 24-of-40 passes for 244 yards with 1 TD and 4 INT. That's a promising development after allowing 352 pass yards and 4 TD to Cincinnati in the prior game. Opponents have had a tough time rushing against this Ohio State defensive front, gaining just 61 YPG on fewer than 3.0 YPC the last three games. The Scarlet Knights are one of the biggest surprises in the B1G with a 5-1 mark at the midway point. Rutgers is off of a bye week after a nice home win over Michigan in its last game. The Scarlet Knights blocked a Michigan field goal late in the 4th quarter and were able to run out the clock for their first conference victory as a member of the B1G. It was a hard fought battle with the reeling Wolverines, but give QB Nova credit for stepping up with 404 pass yards and 3 TD when the running game was seemingly non-existent (74 yards on 2.5 YPC). Nova has been expected to shoulder the load on offense after star RB Paul James went down with a knee injury and he hasn't disappointed. Nova now has 7 TD and 1 INT in his last two games since James went out after tallying 6 TD & 6 INT through the first four games with James in the lineup. The defense will get its toughest test against OSU, but Rutgers appears to be up to the task to slow down Barrett and this pass offense. After allowing Washington State QB Halliday to have a huge day in the opener (532 pass yds, 5 TD), the Scarlet Knights have allowed just 56% completions with 1 pass TD and 3 INT in the last five games. OSU is just 1-4 ATS in the last five B1G home games as a favorite of 17 points or more. Rutgers is 19-5-1 ATS in its last 25 road games as an underdog.

Nebraska (-7) at Northwestern

Nebraska used the bye week to heal a number of players that were ailing after the Huskers' last game loss to Michigan State. Give Nebraska credit for not quitting against Michigan State in a game where seemingly nothing was going right for the Huskers for the better part of three quarters. Down 3-27 in the 4th quarter, Nebraska fought back and cut the deficit to 22-27 with 3:22 remaining. The Huskers were driving with under a minute remaining before an MSU INT put the game away for good. It was tough sledding all game long for star RB Ameer Abdullah, who gained just 45 rush yards on 24 carries after averaging 166 rush YPG through Nebraska's first five contests. QB Armstrong Jr. was constantly under pressure and completed just 20-of-43 passes for 273 yards with 0 TD and 2 INT. Nebraska's defense played quite well against the Spartans save the three long TD scores. MSU's QB Cook completed just 11-of-29 passes with 1 TD and 1 INT. And if you take away the two long TD runs by MSU, Nebraska allowed just 2.9 YPC to the Spartans. All in all, there are much worse ways to lose and Nebraska went into its bye week knowing it can compete with the B1G elite. This week they travel to Evanston to take on a Northwestern squad off a dispiriting loss to Minnesota. The Wildcats outgained Minnesota 393-274 and held the Gophers vaunted rushing attack to just 121 yards on 3.1 YPC, but a special teams letdown (100 yd kickoff return for TD) after tying the game at 17-17 allowed Minnesota to escape with a seven-point victory. RB Justin Jackson had a nice day with 106 rush yards, but the overall inexplosive nature of their offense prevented Northwestern from putting more than 17 points on the board despite owning the game in every aspect. Northwestern has covered all three meetings with Nebraska since the Huskers became a member of the B1G. The winning margin in those three games has been 3, 1, and 3 points. Northwestern is 0-5 ATS in the last five following a SU loss and just 3-8 ATS in the last 11 conference games. Nebraska has covered five straight road games and is 5-2 ATS in the last seven conference roadies.

Minnesota (-12.5) vs. Purdue

It wasn't pretty, but the Gophers played sound football against Northwestern and came away with the victory. Offensively the Gophers were outgained 393-274 and the rushing attack was stifled for much of the afternoon (121 yards on 3.1 YPC). QB Leidner was unspectacular but efficient as he completed 10-of-15 passes for 153 yards and rushed for two scores. The defense allowed Northwestern QB Siemian to complete 32 passes, but they went for just 269 yards and 1 TD. They also held the Wildcats' rushing attack to just 124 yards on 3.6 YPC. The defensive unit held when necessary, and Minnesota got a decisive 100-yard kickoff return from Jalen Myrick in the fourth quarter to break the 17-17 tie. Now Minnesota sits at 5-1 overall and 2-0 in conference with a shot to officially become bowl eligible with a win over Purdue on Saturday. Things appear to be trending upward for the Boilermakers. Purdue has played well over the last three games even though the results don't show up in the standings. Despite being a heavy road 'dog against MSU last week, the Boilers had a chance to tie or take the lead late in the 4th before a Spartans INT return for TD put the game away for Sparty. QB Appleby was an efficient 24-of-37 for 211 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT - his 2nd consecutive solid performance since becoming the starter. The Boilers, surprisingly, were able to churn out 129 rush yards on 5.2 YPC against this normally unyielding MSU rush defense. RB Akeem Hunt accounted for 96 rush yards on just 12 carries with 3 TD runs. Despite the loss, the Boilers have to be feeling good about the way they've played of late. Purdue has won 11 of the last 15 meetings with Minnesota, but the Gophers have won three of the last five, including a 44-28 win in Minnesota in 2012 in the latest meeting. The favorite is 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings. The Gophers haven't been a double-digit favorite against a Big Ten team since 2004, and are just 3-6 ATS in the last nine as a 10+ point favorite overall. Purdue is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Maryland (-5) vs. Iowa

Maryland had a bye week last week after running into a buzzsaw in its most recent game against OSU. The Buckeyes scored early and often and rode a 31-10 halftime lead into a 52-24 victory. Maryland QB's Brown & Rowe completed just 24-of-40 passes for 244 yards with 1 TD and 4 INT. Coach Edsall stated that there is absolutely no quarterback controversy and that CJ Brown will be the starter when Maryland returns to the field despite being replaced at halftime against OSU. It'd help whoever is under center if the Terps could get some semblance of a rushing attack. They managed just 66 rush yards on 24 carries (2.8 YPC) against the Bucks and now rank 90th nationally in rush YPG. The good news is that they've had a week off to work on that, along with solving their defensive issues (106th against the run, 99th in total defense) before hosting Iowa this weekend. Iowa came off of its own bye week to face Indiana last week, and the Hawkyes that took the field looked completely different than the version we saw over the first five weeks of the season. They were exciting and explosive on offense while scoring 45 points - 21 more than they had scored against an FBS program this season - in the 16-point victory over the Hoosiers. QB Jake Rudock looked much improved, throwing for 210 yards and two scores on 19-of-27 passing as Iowa jumped to a 21-0 lead. Playing against Indiana seemed to solve a lot of Iowa's offensive woes, as the rushing attack notched 207 yards - the first time Iowa has exceeded 175 rush yards in a game this season. It was a bit concerning that a normally stout Iowa run-defense allowed Indiana to rush for 316 yards on 8.1 YPC with three long TD runs of 83, 69, and 45 by IU's Tevin Coleman. We'll see if Iowa can carry its strong offensive performance into the next game on the road against Maryland. Iowa is 8-0 ATS in its last eight roadies, four of which came as an underdog. The Terps are just 1-5 ATS in the last six home games and 0-7 ATS following a bye week.

Wisconsin - Bye Week

The winning margin of 10 points over Illinois is a bit misleading as the Illini scored a couple of garbage touchdowns and the Badgers had a +210 yard advantage; but the Badgers had to overcome another slow start and struggled yet again to get a passing attack going. It didn't matter on Saturday as the Badgers romped for 401 rush yards on 8.5 YPC, but the Badgers will need to develop an aerial attack if they want a shot at a B1G title. Melvin Gordon had another huge day (175 rush yds, 4 TD) to continue his torried pace of 868 rush yds and 12 TD over the past four games. Defensively they allowed Illini backup QB O'Toole to see a few too many passing lanes (12-of-19 for 96 yards and 2 scores) and the rush defense allowed Illinois to rush for its 2nd highest total on the ground this season. Still, this pass defense ranks as the top unit in the B1G, allowing just 50.3% completions for 169.2 YPG with just 5 pass TD. That pass defense will get tested in upcoming games against Maryland and Rutgers.

Penn State - Bye Week

The Nittany Lions lost a second consecutive game last week against Michigan and are now reeling after a strong 4-0 start. Christian Hackenberg may have all the talent in the world, but he appears to be playing without confidence; mainly because the offensive line stinks and he has so few playmakers around him. Hackenberg has just 1 TD pass in the last four games and the Nittany Lions have limped to just 104 rush yards on 60 carries (1.7 YPC) in PSU's two consecutive losses. The defense continues to be outstanding as this unit held Michigan to just 256 total yards - including 64 rush yards on 2.1 YPC - and 12 first downs. But their defensive prowess will go unnoticed if the offense continues to underperform. Next up the Nittany Lions will host Ohio State as PSU looks to avenge last year's 49-point loss to the Buckeyes.

Michigan - Bye Week

It wasn't a convincing win over Penn State, but it was a win nonetheless, and the Wolverines will take anything they can get nowadays. The Wolves used a solid defensive performance, holding Penn State to 214 yards, 16 first downs, and just 13 points in the five-point victory. The defense will have to continue to play at an elite level because it appears this offense isn't making any strides. The Wolves managed just 256 total yards and 12 first downs. They rushed for just 64 yards on 21 carries (2.1 YPC) while QB Gardner was efficient but inexplosive (16-of-24 for 192 yards with 1 TD & 1 INT). It was a solid win at home that saved Brady Hoke's job for at least one more week, and perhaps this showing can relieve some pressure on Michigan before it travels to East Lansing for the all-important battle of Michigan with the Spartans.

Illinois - Bye Week

Credit the Illini for playing the Badgers tougher than anyone really expected, especially considering they were playing their first game without star QB Wes Lunt. Illinois jumped out to a 14-7 - before the Badgers scored the next 31 points - and then cut a 24-point deficit to just 10 in the 4th quarter. Backup QB Riley O'Toole made a few big plays (2 TD passes) and the rushing attack notched 153 yards against the Badgers. Still, despite all the "good" things that the Illini did, they were still outgained by 210 yards and allowed UW RB's Gordon & Clement to rush for 339 yards and 5 TD. This is a porous defense, and now without Lunt, the offense is really going to struggle. Their remaining schedule is against five teams with a combined record of 22-8 and they'll likely be heavy underdogs in each of those contests.

A Favorites Nightmare
By Robbie Gainous
Playbook.com

The College Football System of the Week won again last week as Kentucky covered easily over UL-Monroe. This week we intend to keep our streak going with another solid college football system that is active on this week’s college card.

The premise for our System of the Week has been investigated many times over the years with some very interesting and profitable results gleaned from our research. After the opening college lines were posted we began working on winless teams during the middle and latter part of the season.

By the time teams reach the middle portion of the season and still have a zero in the win column they have for the most part given up on this campaign. These teams realize there chance at a conference championship or bowl game has for the most part disappeared. In fact many of these same teams end up qualifying in our Towel Tossing Matrix that we utilize in our handicapping process late in the season.

The focus of this system is on winless home favorites coming off a road game their last time out. The premise of this system is simple with a team that has just lost another game which was played on the road and they now must face their fans, friends and family off the reoccurring nightmare of a losing streak. Some teams find a measure of solace when playing away from home while riding an extended losing streak. The pressure of the situation is not as significant when playing away from the home crowd.

That is not the case this week as our winless team makes their return to their home field for their next contest and the oddsmakers have done them no favors installing them as favorites. Not only have the pressure of the home crowd but the guys that make the line added pressure to them because now their fans will expect a victory because Vegas said so.

SYSTEM: From Game 6 on, play AGAINSTa winless home favorite off a road game vs. an opponent not off a home SU win. This system has a record of 1-13 ATS with the favorite failing to cover by an average of 15.36 points per game. The one loss for this system came last season and it was by a half a point.

The combination of all these factors play into our system of the week which should add another win to our column while the winless group will have to face another long night as that nightmare repeats itself once again.

The System of the Week has one loss and it came by a mere half a point last season as Hawaii was the play against team versus Army. Hawaii was installed as a 6.5 point home favorite over Army and pulled out a 49 to 42 win and cover giving us our only loss with this system. That one loss will certainly not keep us off this system this week.

With all the system parameters met this week’s Cajun Sports NCAA Football System of the Week calls for a Play ON New Mexico State plus the points over Idaho on Saturday. The Play AGAINST team is Idaho as they return home off a loss of course installed as a four-point favorite over New Mexico State. We will take the points here as New Mexico State cashes the ticket for us on Saturday.

NCAAF Week 8

Maryland allowed 92 points in losing last two home games, to West Va/Ohio State; Terrapins are 5-8 as home favorites under Edsall, 0-1 this year. Terps allowed 845 rushing yards in last three games, including red-flag 370 at Syracuse, which soon after demoted its OC. Iowa might be least-respected 5-1 team in America; road team covered all five of its I-A games, with Hawkeyes winning 24-20 at Pitt, 24-10 at Purdue. Iowa covered last three games as road dogs, after covering of previous seven before that; they gave up 316 rushing yards to Indiana, but Hoosiers completed just 7-21 passes. Big 14 home favorites are 4-7 vs spread in league play.

Baylor lost 70-63 at West Virginia two years ago, beat WVU 73-42 LY, as teams play Arenaball outdoors; Bears gained total of 1,572 yards in the two games. Baylor rallied from behind to beat TCU 61-58 last week, with defense on field for 89 plays; they’ve already won three road games, at two stiffs and Texas (28-7, -14), are 2-0-1 as road favorite this year. Petty passed for 510 yards last week but threw 27 incompletions; he’s not 100%. WVU scored 33+ points against everyone but Alabama this season; their losses are by 10-12 points. Mountaineers are 2-4 as home dog under Holgorsen. Big X home underdogs are 5-3 vs spread so far this season.

Arkansas got 10 votes for top 25 despite having zero SEC wins in last two calendar years; Hogs lost 14-13 at home to Alabama last week, outgaining Tide 335-227 but missing a PAT which was margin of defeat; Hogs are 8-6 in last 14 games as home underdog, 2-3 under Bielema. Georgia scored 44.8 ppg in winning last four games; they’ve scored 35-34 points in two road games, with only loss 38-35 at Clemson. Dawgs are 9-7 in last 16 games as road favorites, 1-1 this season. These teams haven’t met since 2010; Georgia won five of last six meetings, with underdog covering last four. SEC home underdogs are 6-3 vs spread in conference play.

Stanford won its last four games with Arizona State, with three wins by 14+ points; they had 480 rushing yards in two wins over ASU LY, one of which was Pac-12 title game, but Cardinal lost four of last five visits here, winning 17-13 in last visit here, in ’10. Favorites covered six of last seven series games, but underdogs are 12-4 vs spread in Pac-12 conference games this year, 4-2 if at home. Stanford was held to 10-14 points in its two losses, to USC/Notre Dame; Sun Devils allowed 96 points in last two games, and gave up 23-24 points to New Mexico/Colorado in earlier wins. Cardinal is 2-5 in last seven games as a road favorite.

UCLA lost its last seven visits to Berkeley, losing last five by 14+ points each; last six series games were all decided by 17+ points. Bruins lost last two games, allowing 30-42 points; they’ve given up 27+ points in four of last five games, but won only two road games by 8-35 points, winning big at ASU in game that Sun Devil QB Kelly was hurt. UCLA is 4-3 as road favorites under Mora. California is improved at 4-2, but they’ve allowed 48.8 ppg in last four games, allowing 56-59 points in consecutive wins; over last decade, they’re 3-13 as home underdogs. UCLA allowed 570 rushing yards in last two games.

Road team won both A&M-Alabama games last two years; Manziel hung 628 TY, 42 points on Bama in 49-42 home loss that fanned flames of whole “Johnny Football” thing, after Aggies (+13) upset Tide here 29-24 the year before. Aggies are 6-10-1 in last 17 games as home dogs, 1-1 this year; they lost last two weeks, giving up 83 points to two Mississippi schools. Bama survived 14-13 win at Arkansas (Hogs missed PAT) after losing to Ole Miss week before; Crimson Tide is 2-1 as home favorite this year (8-3 in last 11 tries as home fave), scoring 41+ points in last two at home, but they scored 17-14 in struggling on road the last two games.

Oklahoma won nine of last 11 games with Kansas State, with underdogs covering three of last four; Sooners’ last six series wins were all by 10+ points. K-State covered four of last five visits here, winning last time after losses by 12-1-22 points in previous three visits. Oklahoma allowed 32 ppg in last three games, squeaking by rival Texas last week after getting beat at TCU; they’re 31-18-1 in last fifty games as home favorite, 1-1 this year. Wildcats haven’t been on road in six weeks, squeaking by 32-28 at Iowa State in only road game- K-State covered 10 of its last 11 games as a road underdog- they’re 13-2 overall as an underdog anywhere since 2011.

Tennessee lost its first two SEC games by total of 4 points, also got hammered 34-10 at Oklahoma; they’re very young team with good senior QB. Vols are 4-9 in last 13 games as road underdog, 1-1 this year, 2-4 under Jones- their gritty 35-32 loss at Georgia shows their competitiveness. Ole Miss just beat Alabama/A&M on consecutive Saturdays; they’re 5-0-1 vs spread this season, winning by 18 in the push. Rebels are 6-3-1 as home favorites under Freeze; they play LSU next week, but they didn’t let down after Alabama win, so maybe this is just special year at Ole Miss, which did give up 401 passing yards at A&M last week, albeit in game they led wire-to-wire.

Florida has more mobile QB Harris back to give spark off bench after his off-field drama from last week was resolved; Gators are 2-2 in SEC, beating Vols 10-9, Kentucky in OT, so not real impressive. Florida is 5-9 in last 14 games as home favorite, 1-1 this year. Mizzou was awful in last two home games, but has road wins at Toledo/South Carolina; Tigers covered eight of last 11 tries as a home dog, but they’ve been awful throwing ball last two games, completing only 21-55 passes. Georgia held Tigers to only 147 yards last week. Home side won both Missouri-Florida games; Tigers outgained Florida 500-151 in 36-17 (+3) home win LY, running ball for 205 yards.

TCU covered all four I-A games this season, scoring 45.3 ppg, with only loss 61-58 at Baylor last week, when Frogs blew big lead late; they’re 5-9-1 in last 15 games as home favorites, 1-0 this year. Oklahoma State drilled TCU 36-14/24-10 in Stillwater last two years, but Horned Frogs are better now; how will TCU bounce back while playing third tough opponent (Oklahoma/Baylor) in a row? Cowboys are 5-1 with only loss 37-31 to Florida State in Dallas; they’re 3-1 in last four games as road underdog, but last week’s 27-20 win at Kansas (-21, needed KR for TD with 8:00 left to win) was their first true road game this season.

Last three Nebraska-Northwestern games were decided by total of 7 points, with Huskers winning two of three, coming from way back to win LY’s game. Nebraska (-6) won 29-28 in last visit here, in ’12; they gained 1,015 yards in last two series gamers. Huskers are off bye after Michigan State loss; they’re 2-4 in last six games as road favorites, 1-0 this year. Wildcats allowed 14 or less points in all three wins, Penn State/Wisconsin being two of them; NWern is 6-9 in last 15 games as home underdogs, 1-0 this year after upsetting Badgers. Wildcats lost 24-17 in Minnesota last week after outgaining Badgers by 119 yards. Big 14 underdogs are 10-6 vs spread in league play, 3-2 at home.

Kentucky is improved this year at 5-1, with only loss in OT at Florida, but Wildcats lost last three visits to LSU by combined score of 118-7; they’re 5-12 in last 17 games as road underdog, and gave up 519 rushing yards to Gators/South Carolina. Over last 10+ years, LSU is 25-35-1 as a home favorite, 2-1 this year; they allowed 27+ points in losing two of three SEC games so far, gutting out 30-27 win at Florida last week, despite completing only 10-22 passes. Teams have met only once since 2007, with LSU winning five of last six meetings. SEC home favorites are just 4-9 vs spread in conference games this season.

October 18 is first true road game of season for Notre Dame, which only has two more (ASU/USC) true road games this year; Irish were obviously looking ahead to this game last week, but 50-43 win over defenseless UNC is still red flag, with Tar Heels passing for 326 yards, gaining 510 total yards in game that was 28-26 at half. ND is 5-2 as road underdog under Kelly. Florida State is seemingly impervious to distractions in Winston era, but they’re also 1-4 vs spread this season, 1-1 as home favorite- FSU is 18-9-1 overall as home favorites under Fisher. Seminoles scored 45.7 ppg in winning last three games since surviving Clemson.

Notes on rest of the card

-- Marshall covered its last four games, winning all four by 25+ points; they beat FIU 48-10 (-32) LY, running ball for 270 yards. FIU covered four of its five lined games this season.
-- Syracuse lost its last four games, all by 14+ points; they demoted their OC/recruiting coordinator; not good. Orange (-4.5) beat Wake Forest LY 13-0 in Dome, holding Deacons to 198 yards.
-- Northern Illinois won five of last six games with Miami O, but dogs covered five of those six games. Huskies scored 14-17-17 points in last three games. Miami is playing fifth road game in six weeks.
-- Ohio won its last six games with Akron (4-1-1 vs spread), taking 43-0 verdict LY, but Bobcats are 3-4 this year, scoring total of 40 points in three MAC games (1-2 SU).

-- Favorites covered five of last six Purdue-Minnesota games, with home team winning last four; Boilers lost 44-28/35-20 in last two visits here. Gophers won first two league games by 16-7 points.
-- Duke won five of last six games with Virginia, winning by 13-25 in last two years; dogs are 3-1-1 in last five series games. Cavaliers lost three in a row at Duke, by 25-7-28 points.
-- Georgia Tech won 14 of last 16 games with North Carolina, winning last five (4-0-1 vs spread); they've run ball for 312 yards in last six series games. Tech won 68-50/30-24 in last two visits here.
-- NC State lost last three games after 4-0 start, allowing 42.3 ppg; they are 2-7-1 in last ten games as road dog, 0-3-1 under Doeren. Since 2007, Louisville is 14-25 as a home favorite.

-- UMass is 1-6, but they've scored 42-41-40 points last three games and 31+ in five of last six games. Eastern Michigan is 1-4 vs I-A teams, with all losses by 14+, but they won last week as a 14-point dog.
-- Favorites covered four of last five Western Michigan-Bowling Green games; Western won last three, winning 41-7/45-14 in last two visits to BG. Falcons won last three games overall, scoring 38 ppg.
-- Ball State won last four games with Central Michigan, winning its last three visits here by 11-14-7 points. Favorites covered six of last nine in series, but Chips are 4-0 in series when single digit favorite.
-- San Jose State (-8.5) won 51-44 over Wyoming LY; Cowboys ran ball for 332 yards in losing cause. Wyoming is 3-3 with three wins by total of 10 points- their losses are by 34-42-10 points.

-- Air Force won eight of last ten games with New Mexico, but lost to Lobos 45-37 LY; favorites covered 10 of last 14 series games. Last two years, New Mexico has 860 rushing yards against Falcons.
-- Tulsa lost last five games, allowing 43.2 ppg; two of their three games at home went OT. South Florida covered its last three games, but scored 17 or less points in last five games.
-- Home side won both UTSA-Louisiana Tech games; Roadrunners won 30-10 LY, outgaining Tech 475-195. Tech is 5-0 vs spread in lined games but also lost to a I-AA team.
-- North Texas (-12) won 55-14 at Southern Miss LY, gaining 529 yards; UNT lost last three I-A games, allowing 49 ppg. Southern Miss covered three of last four games, but allowed 78 points in last two.

-- Cincinnati lost its last three games, allowing 48.7 ppg; they beat SMU 28-25 (-7.5) LY, SMU passed for 403 yards. Mustangs lost 45-24 last game, its first cover in five games this season.
-- 1-5 Troy basically fired its longtime coach last week, then won first game of year, 41-24. Appalachian State is 0-4 vs spread vs I-A teams in '14- they lost in OT to a I-AA team last week.
-- BYU (-15) won 28-23 at Nevada LY, gaining 492 yards, but they've lost QB Hill for season and lost last two games, allowing 33 ppg in their last three games. Nevada allowed 82 points in losing last two games.
-- Road team won last two Army-Kent games; Cadets ran for 558 yards in two games. Army is 0-3 on road, losing to Wake Forest/Yale by total of nine points. Kent is 0-6, scoring 11.8 ppg.

-- Oregon won/covered its last ten games with Washington; Huskies lost last six visits to Eugene, losing all six by 20+ points. Washington is 2-0 as an underdog; its only loss was 20-13 to Stanford.
-- Middle Tennessee (-3.5) won 24-21 at UAB LY, in game where both teams ran for 250+ yards. Improved UAB is 4-2, scoring 41+ points in all four wins. MT allowed 37.7 ppg in its last six games.
-- Ohio State is off bye after scoring 102 points in previous two games, wins by 22-28 points; they're 4-1 vs spread this year. Rutgers covered its last four games, is surprising 5-1, with only loss 13-10 to Penn St.
-- USC won its three Pac-12 meetings with Colorado by average score of 47-17; Buffs lost 50-6 in last meeting here; they've covered last four in row overall, haven't lost this year by more than 14 points.

-- Michigan State won last five games with Indiana, covering four of five games; they've covered four of last six visits here. Hoosiers lost their QB for season last week; they allowed 35.6 ppg in last five games.
-- Clemson won its last three games with Boston College by 10-14-22 points; underdogs covered six of last nine series games. Tigers split their last four visits here, winning by 14-6 points.
-- Underdogs covered 11 of last 15 New Mexico State-Idaho games, with Aggies losing last four visits here, by 8-23-6-8 points. Vandals are 0-6 this season, allowing 34+ points in every game.
-- Georgia State is 0-5 vs I-A teams but covered three of last four games. South Alabama had bye last week; they're 3-2 but lost both home games, scoring total of nine points.

-- Underdogs covered last four Western Kentucky-FAU games; Owls won four of last five, holding WKU under 300 yards in last three. FAU won its two home games, scoring 91 points.
-- Underdogs covered three of last four Utah State-Colorado State games, with Aggies winning 13-0/31-19 last two years. Improived Rams are 5-1 and covered their last four games.
-- Texas won nine of last ten games with Iowa State; Cyclones covered three of last four visits to Austin, but ISU allowed 38.7 ppg in last three games. Texas is 2-4, but its wins are by 31-23 points.

-- Texas Tech won last seven games with Kansas, covering four of last five; Jayhawks lost last three visits to Lubbock by 7-21-13 points. Tech lost its last four games, allowing 44 ppg.
-- Central Florida won four of last five games with Tulane, covering all five; Green Wave lost 49-0/34-24 in last two visits here. Tulane scored 31 points in last three games; favorites covered all six of their games.
-- Hawai'i lost 52-14/35-13 in last two visits to San Diego State; they're 0-2 vs spread on mainland this year, losing by 9-14 points. Aztecs won by 10-14 points, its only wins in five games vs I-A teams.

Armadillosports.com

College Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Texas A&M at Alabama

Texas A&M, one of the nation's best offenses (43.9 PPG) behind a high-flying attack that generates 564.9 yards/game goes up against Alabama one of the country's stingiest defenses allowing 15.3 PPG on 276.5 yards. Alabama with a 12-0 (6-5-1 ATS) streak on home field with the last loss coming back in November 2012 as 13.5 point favorite at the hands Texas A&M are once again spotting Aggies 13.5 points. A huge number considering Tide's stagnant offense of late managing just 623 total yards in a 23-17 loss to Ole Miss and most recently a 14-13 squeaker at Arkansas. Wouldn't bet the farm on Saban's troops, they're on a 1-8-1 ATS skid, have dropped the cash in 4-of-5 SEC tilts and 0-2 ATS vs Aggies.

Washington at Oregon

Ducks smarting from having it's 12 game home streak snapped by Arizona rebounded from the rough outing with a 42-30 win at UCLA covering the 1.5 point spot. Meanwhile, Huskies continue to surprise as they blasted Cal 31-7 last week cashing as 3.5 point road dogs. Things may not go as well for Washington this week. In last year's meeting at Washington the Oregon behind QB Mariota's 3 passing TD's, 1 rushing major walked off with a 45-24 win as 11.5 point favorite marking 10 straight victories in the series (9-0-1 ATS) including 6-0 (5-0-1 ATS) at Autzen Stadium a house of horrors for Huskies who have lost 8-of-9 at this venue (2-6-1 ATS).

Notre Dame at Florida State

A battle of unbeaten teams takes place in Tallahassee Saturday night when defending National Champion Florida State Seminoles host Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Seminoles check into this game putting up 39.0 PPG on 462.5 total yards with it's defense surrendering 20.7 points/contest. Brian Kelly's troops tally 34.5 points/game on 444.3 yards with a suffocating defense that gives up just 17.2 points per/game. Noles' ridding a 22-game win streak (13-9 ATS) that includes 10 straight (7-3 ATS) at Doak Campbell Stadium have been given the nod by oddsmakers opening -11.5 point home favorite. Given Notre Dame's suffocating defense in what should be a tight hard-fought battle consider taking the points. Status as chalk has worked against FSU this season. Noles' are 1-5 against the betting line and enter 1-6 ATS last seven laying 9.5 or more points. On the other side, Fighting Irish hit the field a profitable 4-1 ATS as DD dogs, 5-0 ATS last five against a team with a winning home record.

Saturday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag

TEXAS A&M AGGIES (5-2) at ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (5-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Alabama -14, Total: 63.5

In a tough SEC matchup, No. 21 Texas A&M travels to Tuscaloosa to take on No. 7 Alabama Saturday.

The Aggies opened the 2014 campaign in impressive fashion, as they were 5-0 SU (3-2 ATS) through their first five games before running into the meat of their schedule. They have lost their past two contests, both against top-three teams in the nation (No. 1 Mississippi State and No. 3 Ole Miss), by an average of 16.0 PPG while turning the ball over six times. Last week they were favorites at home against the Rebels, but despite an impressive 455 yards of offense, they fell 35-20 due to three giveaways and a meager 1.5 YPC on 35 rushing attempts. Alabama was upset when it traveled to Ole Miss a few weeks ago as a four-point favorite, losing by a score of 23-17 and continuing a poor season ATS. Overall the Tide are 1-4-1 ATS after once again failing to cover last week when they barely earned a 14-13 victory as 8.5-point favorites at Arkansas. They have actually lost the turnover battle this year as they have coughed up the pigskin 11 times compared to forcing eight turnovers, and have been held under 4.0 YPC in each of the past two weeks.

This matchup has not failed to live up to the hype in either of the past two seasons, as the road team has come away with a SU victory each time while Texas A&M is 2-0 ATS. Last year, the Crimson Tide were 49-42 victors as eight-point favorites on the road as the teams combined for 62 first downs and a jaw-dropping 1,164 yards of total offense. Bettors should know that Alabama is a meager 22-41 ATS (35%) in home game when coming off one or more consecutive Unders since 1992, while the Aggies are a woeful 1-11 ATS (8%) in road games after gaining 450+ total yards in three consecutive games over the same timeframe. Neither team has any significant injuries to keep an eye on heading into this game.

The Aggies said goodbye to Johnny Manziel this past offseason, but have kept their high-octane passing attack going with 396 YPG through the air (3rd in FBS) while scoring 43.9 PPG (6th in nation). QB Kenny Hill (2,511 pass yards, 23 TD, 7 INT) is to thank for much of the production, as he has thrown for 300+ yards in five of the seven games while passing for at least 365 yards with a total of 10 TD over the past three weeks. His turnovers have been worrisome since facing tougher competition though, as he has all of his seven picks in the past four weeks, including five over the two defeats. The duo of HBs Trey Williams (301 rush yards, 5 TD) and Tra Carson (273 rush yards, 4 TD) mans the backfield, as Carson has tallied double-digit attempts in each of the past two games while not scoring in the past four games. Hill likes to spread the ball around, as six different receivers have 23+ receptions with WR Josh Reynolds (476 rec yards, 8 TD) leading the team in receiving yards and touchdown grabs while averaging 16.4 yards per catch.

One area to be worried about on this team is the defense, as it has allowed 37.0 PPG over the past three weeks and is giving up 397 YPG of total offense to its opponents. The combo of DBs Deshazor Everett (47 tackles, 1 INT) and Howard Matthews (44 tackles, 2.5 TFL) with DL Myles Garrett (33 tackles, 7.5 sacks) should give the team hope for better performances to come.

Alabama is always one of the more balanced offenses in the nation, and this year is no different as it is gaining 288.7 passing YPG (28th in FBS) and 211.3 rushing YPG (30th in nation) while scoring 33.2 PPG. QB Blake Sims (1,480 pass yards, 10 TD, 3 INT) has thrown for more than 250 yards just once on the season, as he has done well keeping the ball out of the defense's hands and also contributes to the rushing attack (154 rush yards, 3 TD). Joining him in the backfield is the impressive tandem of HBs T.J. Yeldon (452 rush yards, 2 TD) and Derrick Henry (382 rush yards, 2 TD) who have each eclipsed the century mark twice this season. WR Amari Cooper has hauled in 54 of the 122 completions on the team (44%) for 768 yards (14.2 avg). But Cooper has failed to crack 100 yards in either of the past two games after averaging 163.8 YPG over the first four. As usual, the Crimson Tide defense has been stout, allowing a mere 15.3 PPG (6th in nation) to their opponents behind the play of DB Landon Collins (46 tackles, 2 INT) and DL Xzavier Dickson (20 tackles, 5 sacks).

OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (5-1) at TCU HORNED FROGS (4-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: : TCU -10, Total: 62

No. 12 TCU looks to bounce back from a tough loss against Baylor when it hosts No. 15 Oklahoma State on Saturday.

The Cowboys are coming into this game off a surprisingly narrow 27-20 victory against 18-point underdog Kansas. The game was tied with seven minutes to go before Tyreek Hill took a kickoff 99 yards to help OSU prevail. As the Cowboys (3-3 ATS) have gotten deeper into the season, head coach Mike Gundy’s teams have shown the ability to play their best football, as Oklahoma State is 12-3 ATS in the second half of the season since 2012. For the Horned Frogs, they will be looking for redemption after last week's 61-58 loss to Baylor, when they blew a 21-point lead in the fourth quarter. But TCU (5-0 ATS) is clicking on offense this season, and that could play a big role in the game, as the team is 8-1 ATS when scoring at least 28 points in the past two seasons.

Last season, the Cowboys defeated the Horned Frogs, 24-10. It was a struggle for both offenses as each school committed four turnovers and nine penalties. The Cowboys were able to rattle QB Trevone Boykin, who threw for 188 yards and three interceptions. Boykin has reportedly been bothered by a wrist injury, but he is expected to start in this matchup. Oklahoma State is dealing with a couple new injuries with both CB Ashton Lampkin and OL Zachary Crabtree listed as questionable due to ankle injuries.

Despite the struggles in Lawrence last week, the Cowboys won their fifth straight game since a season-opening loss to Florida State. The Oklahoma State offense has been solid all season, ranking 26th in FBS scoring (37.2 PPG) and 40th in passing (265.7 YPG), but have just 155.0 rushing YPG (80th in nation). Junior QB Daxx Garman (1,361 passing yards, 10 TD and 5 INT) has filled in nicely for J.W. Walsh, who suffered a foot injury in Week 2 and remains out indefinitely. However, for Oklahoma State to be able to compete in this game, Garman will have to improve his accuracy (58% completion rate). On the ground, RB Desmond Roland (96 carries, 391 yards and 7 TD) is the workhorse on the offense. He is a big physical runner that can wear out his opponent late in the fourth quarter. RB Tyreek Hill (38 carries, 196 yards, 5.2 YPG) is one of the fastest players in all of the country. While the Cowboys use him as a decoy a lot of the time, the defense always has to know where he is on the field. WR Brandon Sheperd (18 catches, 299 yards and 2 TD) has shown the ability to make the big play, and he has an 87-yard touchdown on the season.

The Cowboys defense has had its moments this season, ranking 62nd in the country in scoring defense (24.7 PPG). LB Ryan Simmons (44 tackles, 3.5 TFL) is the leading tackler on the team, while LB Seth Jacobs (41 tackles, 3 TFL, 2 INT) will also be needed to contain the Horned Frogs. Sophomore DE Emmanuel Ogbah (27 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 5 sacks) can cause a lot of havoc rushing the quarterback. The Horned Frogs were unable to get the victory last week, but showed how well they can play on offense with 58 points and 485 total yards. TCU now ranks third in the country in scoring (45.8 PPG), 12th in passing (325.2 YPG) and 52nd in rushing (184.8 YPG). QB Trevone Boykin (1,463 pass yards, 305 rush yards, 14 total TD) has taken his game to a completely new level, proving to be one of the most dynamic players in the country. There was a report early in the week that he had surgery on his wrist, but head coach Gary Patterson came out and said that wasn’t true, and he was able to practice this week. Running back B.J. Catalon (59 carries, 268 yards and 6 TD) has shown the ability to run the ball, helping the Horned Frogs have so many passing opportunities. Wide receiver Kolby Listenbee (18 catches, 418 yards and 3 TD) is averaging a very impressive 23.2 YPC, and will force the Cowboys defense to keep a safety over top.

The Horned Frogs allow 23.0 PPG (51st in FBS), but had been known as a terrific defense before last week's debacle where they allowed 61 points and 782 total yards. They entered the game giving up only 54 points in the first four games combined. Linebacker Paul Dawson (55 tackles, 7 TFL, 3 sacks, 2 INT) is one of the best playmakers in the country on defense. He does a terrific job against the run, but can also defend well in pass coverage. S Chris Hackett (37 tackles, 2 PD, 2 INT) is the leader of the secondary, who will be key to helping his unit recover from the dismal performance last week.

NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (6-0) at FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (6-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Florida State -12.5

Saturday's marquee matchup takes place in Tallahassee when No. 5 Notre Dame visits defending national champion No. 2 Florida State.

The Irish have started their 2014 campaign with six straight SU wins by an average of 17.3 PPG while going 4-2 ATS. In that time they have done well on defense, forcing teams to turn the ball over multiple times in 5-of-6 contests while having their worst performance to date last week against North Carolina. They went into the weekend as large 16.5-point favorites over the Tar Heels at home and actually trailed by a point (36-35) heading into the final quarter before eventually prevailing in a 50-43 victory. The two teams combined for 1,029 yards of total offense while Notre Dame looked sloppy and turned the ball over on three occasions. Florida State also brings a perfect record into this one but has not been as dominant as most would have thought, going 1-5 ATS. The 'Noles have not really faced a team of top caliber yet, with Clemson being the only spread near single digits (-10), and they did not overwhelm Syracuse last week as expected. As 23.5-point favorites on the road, the Seminoles captured a 38-20 victory from the Orange as they totaled 482 yards of offense while forcing three turnovers. Their defense did not do its job though, allowing 412 yards of offense to their opponent with 256 of those yards coming through the air from a team that ranks in the bottom half of FBS in that category.

These programs have faced each other just once in the past decade when they met in the 2011 Citrus Bowl when FSU came away with an 18-14 win despite rushing for a meager 41 yards on 1.4 YPC. Trends show us that the Fighting Irish are a solid 25-7 ATS (78%) in October road games since 1992 while the Seminoles are 21-8 ATS (75%) after failing to cover the spread in four of their past five games over this same timeframe. As far as injuries go, Notre Dame has no significant ones to speak of, while WR Rashad Greene (foot) and HB Karlos Williams (ankle) have both been upgraded to probable for Florida State.

Notre Dame has been able to conquer opposing defense with a balanced offense that has posted 34.5 PPG while gaining 280.5 YPG through the air (34th in FBS) and 163.8 YPG on the ground (69th in nation). QB Everett Golson (1,683 pass yards, 16 TD, 4 INT) started out the season without a turnover in the first three contests, but since has thrown four picks while seeing his completion percentage drop to 51% in the past two games. Still, his overall season has been impressive, as Golson has thrown for 295+ yards in 3-of-6 games while having multiple passing touchdowns in each contest and contributing to the run game with 209 yards (3.6 YPC) and four scores. HB Tarean Folston (263 rush yards, 2 TD) leads the backfield with 60 attempts (4.4 YPC) while being the workhorse last week with 98 yards on 18 attempts (5.4 YPC) with 2 TD.

HBs Greg Bryant (201 rush yards, 2 TD) and Cam McDaniel (181 rush yards, 2 TD) also contribute plenty to the rushing attack with 43+ attempts each. WR William Fuller (504 rec yards, 7 TD) has 16 more receptions (35) than the next closest receiver while grabbing at least six balls in 4-of-6 games and reaching the century mark in two of the past three contests. Through the first five games of the year, the defense for the program allowed a miniscule 12.0 PPG to its opponents, and despite last week's poor performance, still ranks eighth in the nation in scoring defense (17.2 PPG). The duo of LBs Jaylon Smith (49 tackles, 2 sacks) and Joe Schmidt (48 tackles) hope they can get the Irish back on track this week.

Florida State is once again among the elite in passing this season, whipping the pigskin around for 324 YPG (13th in nation) while scoring 39.0 PPG (20th in FBS). QB Jameis Winston (1,605 pass yards, 11 TD, 5 INT) has not looked quite as composed this season amongst a one-game suspension and now allegations that he accepted money for his autograph, but was able to put all of that aside last week against Syracuse as he had his best performance of the year. He was an efficient 30-for-36 (83.3%) with 317 yards (8.8 YPA) and three touchdowns (0 INTs) in the road victory. HB Karlos Williams (353 rush yards, 5 TD) missed last week due to an ankle injury after having double-digit carries in four of the first five games, but is expected to suit up for this tough battle. If he is not able to play, or is still less than 100 percent, expect freshman HB Dalvin Cook (250 rush yards, 3 TD) to take on the starter’s role after an impressive performance (23 attempts, 122 yards, 1 TD) as the lead back last week when he gained 122 yards on 23 carries (5.3 YPC) with a touchdown.

WR Rashad Greene (683 rec yards, 3 TD) is the team’s leader in receptions (44) while getting six or more catches in four of the six games on the year. He has not been the team’s biggest red-zone threat though, as WR Jesus Wilson (262 rec yards, 4 TD) has the most scores through the air while playing in the slot. The Seminoles defense ranks among the nation's top-50 in yards allowed (358.5 YPG) while giving up 20.7 PPG (30th in FBS) behind the leadership of LBs Reggie Northrup (50 tackles, 1 sack), Terrance Smith (49 tackles, 2 TFL) and DB Jalen Ramsey (45 tackles, 1 INT, 5 TFL).

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Saturday's SEC Action
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Missouri at Florida

As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Florida (3-2 straight up, 2-3 against the spread) installed as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 47. Gamblers can take the Tigers on the money line for a +200 return (risk $100 to win $200).

UF somehow found a way to lose a 30-27 decision to LSU as a 1.5-point home underdog last week. The Gators led by double digits at halftime, failed to get into the end zone at crunch time despite a first-and-goal situation from two yards out and allowed LSU to convert a 3rd-and-25 play that led to a go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter. LSU won thanks to a generous ruling from the referee (see below in Bonus Nuggets) that preceded a 50-yard game-winning field goal from Colby Delahoussaye with three seconds remaining.

With freshman QB Treon Harris out, Jeff Driskel got the starting nod for Florida. The fourth-year junior completed 14-of-25 throws for 183 yards and one touchdown. However, he was intercepted twice, including a pick in the final minute that allowed LSU to get into field-goal range for the winning points. Driskel rushed 21 times for 71 yards and one TD. For the season, he has a 6/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Driskel has two TD passes compared to seven interceptions in the last three games.

Missouri (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) took cream-cheese treatment at home last week when Georgia came to town and dealt out a 34-0 clubbing as a three-point road 'chalk.' Missouri's offense generated only 147 yards of total offense and the UGA defense made Maty Mauk look extremely mediocre for the first time in his career. Mauk connected on just 9-of-21 throws for 97 yards and was intercepted four times. For the year, Mauk has a 14/8 TD-INT ratio. His completion percentage has been awful in the last two games (42.9% vs. UGA & 35.3% at South Carolina).

UF owns a 7-12 spread record in 19 games as a home favorite during Will Muschamp's four-year tenure.

Missouri has been outstanding on the road going back to 2007, compiling a 23-9 ATS record. The Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs. They are 2-0 ATS on the road this year, spanking Toledo as short road 'chalk' and winning outright (21-20) in come-from-behind fashion at South Carolina as 6.5-point road puppies.

Muschamp will give Driskel the start again this week, but Harris is expected to play early. If Harris is effective, he will almost certainly become the full-time starter moving forward.

The 'over' is 4-1 for Florida, 3-0 in its home games.

The 'under' has cashed in four consecutive games for the Tigers to improve to 4-2 overall. Their road games have seen a split for the 'over' and 'under.'

When these teams met in Columbia last year, Missouri cruised to a 36-17 win as a three-point home favorite. Mauk threw for 295 yards and one TD and also rushed for a score.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

Kentucky at LSU

As of Friday afternoon, most spots had LSU (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) listed as a 10.5-point 'chalk' with a total of 53. Bettors can back UK to win outright for a +325 return (risk $100 to win $325).

Kentucky (5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS) has won five of its first six games for the first time since 2007. That was the same year it upset top-ranked and eventual national champion LSU as a 10-point underdog in a game I dubbed as my SEC Upset of the Year at the VegasInsider.com Handicapping Seminar in August of '07.

Mark Stoops's squad smashed ULM by a 48-14 count as a 19.5-point home favorite last weekend. UK trailed 14-3 at the end of the first quarter but outscored the WarHawks 45-0 in the final three quarters. Patrick Towles threw for 216 yards and three TDs without an interception. Stanley 'Boom' Williams returned from suspension to rack up 104 rushing yards and one TD on just seven totes. Javess Blue had three receptions for 109 yards and two TDs, including an 83-yard TD catch.

Towles has a 10/4 TD-INT ratio and two rushing scores. UK has four RBs who have rushed for at least 172 yards and two TDs. The quartet also has a minimum average yard per carry of 5.2. JoJo Kemp is tops on the team with 297 rushing yards and four TDs. You can expect to see him taking direct snaps out of the Wildcat formation. Nebraska transfer Braylon Heard has 282 rushing yards while averaging 7.4 YPC.

As mentioned above, LSU won 30-27 at Florida last week as a 1.5-point road favorite. Freshman RB Leonard Fournette was the catalyst with 140 rushing yards and two TDs on 27 carries. Anthony Jennings completed 10-of-21 passes for 110 yards and one TD. Brandon Harris didn't play after being rendered ineffective at Auburn in his first career start two weeks ago. Jennings wasn't overly impressive, but the zero in the interception column was key at The Swamp.

Jennings has a 6/3 TD-INT ratio but he's completing only 50 percent of his passes. Fournette has rushed for a team-high 504 yards and six TDs while averaging 5.4 YPC.

LSU is 3-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite this year.

UK is 3-2 ATS in five road underdog situations since Stoops took over in 2013.

The 'over' is 4-2 overall for Kentucky, 1-0 in its lone road assignment.

The 'over' is 4-3 overall for LSU, 2-2 in its home games.

The SEC Network will have the telecast at 7:30 p.m. Eastern.

B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets

As of Friday afternoon, Alabama was favored by 13.5 at most spots for Saturday's home game vs. Texas A&M. The Crimson Tide won a 14-13 decision at Arkansas last week, but it failed to cover the number as a nine-point road favorite. The Aggies got spanked 35-20 by Ole Miss in College Station, and it wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated.

South Carolina is a 38-point home favorite vs. Furman. Going back to 2009, the Gamecocks are 2-4 ATS when favored by 31 points or more. This is their richest 'chalk' spot since November of 2011. The Paladins have lost four in a row against FCS competition.

Alabama is currently the +260 'chalk' to win the SEC at Sportsbook.ag. The next-shortest odds belong to Mississippi St. (+280), Georgia (+320), Ole Miss (+350) and Auburn (+400). The longshots include Missouri (35/1), Kentucky (40/1), Florida (50/1), LSU (55/1) and South Carolina (65/1).

Arkansas is going to clip somebody soon and it might happen Saturday in Little Rock as a 3.5-point underdog. The Razorbacks have covered the spread in five straight outings.

I have no problem with the way the end of the Florida-LSU game went down. With the final seconds ticking off, the referee stopped the clock because UF players were wisely making it difficult for LSU's offensive linemen to get up off the ground to get set for a spike to stop the clock. I'm just not sure we've seen it officiated like that before, have we? I'm sure Gary Andersen was perplexed when he saw what happened. In a similar situation in Wisconsin's game at Arizona St. last year, the Badgers were unable to get the clock stopped with a spike play because ASU players weren't allowing Wisconsin's o-linemen to get up. The Badgers were in range for about a 35-yard field goal that would've allowed them to get out of Tempe with a victory.

College football Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com

(14) Kansas State Wildcats at (11) Oklahoma Sooners (-8)

Kansas State's rushing defense has been on point this season, allowing only 81.4 yards against and only allowing a total of three rushing touchdowns this season.

The Sooners will have their first game at home since Sept. 9, marking the first time since 1999 the team has been away from the Palace on the Prairie for more than one month. Oklahoma has won their past 10 home games in a row, while going 5-5 ATS.

(4) Baylor Bears at West Virginia Mountaineers (+8)

Baylor's offense has been on-fire in the first half this season. The Bears are outscoring opponents 104-21 in first quarters and 80-20 in second quarters this season.

Though West Virginia had a big comeback win last week, coach Dana Holgorsen was not happy with his own performance. "In the first half, I probably got a little bit frustrated, because we weren't getting explosive plays in the run game, but we were averaging five, six yards a carry - which is successful," the fourth year coach said. "I have to be a little bit more patient with that."

(22) Clemson Tigers at Boston College Eagles (+6.5)

Though Clemson walked away with a win against Louisville last week, they lost their starting quarterback. Deshaun Watson broke a small bone in his finger that will sideline him for a month. Also, backup QB Cole Stoudt did not practice ahead of the Louisville game and received injections to play.

Boston College coach Steve Addazio spoke incredibly highly of the Clemson defense this week. ".I'm saying that in my career--predominantly in the SEC--I haven't seen a defense like this since we played Alabama in the [2009] SEC Championship Game. This is the most dominant defense I have seen. Period."

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at (13) Ohio State Buckeyes (-19)

Rutgers is certainly not downplaying the significance of their matchup with the Buckeyes. “For me, in terms of games I’ve played this is definitely going to be in my top three all time,” senior David Milewski said.

Urban Meyer has been dominant over coaches the first time he faces them. The 50 year old is 78-15 when facing the opposing coach for the first time.

(6) Michigan State Spartans at Indiana Hoosiers (+13.5)

Travel has not been kind to the Spartans offense. In MSU's two road games this season the Spartans are averaging 36 points per game, compared to 50.25 ppg at home.

Indiana enters what could be their biggest game of the year with question marks at QB. Nate Sudfeld has already been lost to a shoulder injury, but it's being reported that freshman backup Chris Covington won't play either. That would elevate third-string freshman Zander Diamont to the starter role.

(21) Texas A&M Aggies at (7) Alabama Crimson Tide (-11.5)

Over the Aggies two weeks they have averaged 25.5 points and have gone 12 of 35 on third downs compared to averaging 51.2 and going 34 of 63 on third down over their first five.

After the Crimson Tide amassed 66 yards on 32 carries last week, there was no finger pointing happening. "Personally, I thought I played terrible," RT Austin Shepherd said. "I kind of take responsibility for it. I don't think any of us had a good game. Probably the worst game we've played as a unit just to be straight up."

(10) Georgia Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks (+3.5)

Without Todd Gurley last week, the Bulldogs throttled Mizzou and you can thank the absence of their Heisman candidate back for that. “We had a chip on our shoulder as far as we don't have Todd (Gurley) and everyone thinks that the world is falling apart,” QB Hutson Mason said. “So we took it upon ourselves that we need to show everybody that there are 10 other guys on our offense..."

If the Razorbacks expect to compete with Georgia they will need to tighten up their rush defense which has allowed 145.8 ypg and 8.4 rushing first downs a game.

(15) Oklahoma State Cowboys at (12) TCU Horned Frogs (-8.5)

Even thought people want to point out increased blitzes against the Cowboys offense, coach Mike Gundy disagrees. "It looks worse because we don’t block them. It hasn't really been many more, a little bit, but not a lot. They show up a lot and it doesn't look good when you don’t pick it up. The blitz isn’t a real concern for us, just blocking base front is a concern for us because there’s a lot more guys in coverage."

TCU's surge to the polls this season can be attached to their offensive increase. The Horned Frogs boast the nation's most improved power five conference unit (+165.2 ypg) from last season.

(24) Marshall Thundering Herd at FIU Golden Panthers (+21.5)

Marshall is the only ranked team from C-USA, but that is not enough for the team. "I’m not satisfied with 25,” WR Tommy Shuler said. “I feel like we’re better than 25." The Herd ranks in the top 10 in rushing yards, points against and points for.

Though FIU has already greatly improved over last season, the team still needs to develop the right attitude according to coach Ron Turner. ""We've got to learn how to play with that chip, that edge. (If) we get it back, we can be a good football team, win a lot of games. If we don't, we're not," the second year coach said. "We're not good enough just to go out there and play."

Colorado Buffaloes at (25) USC Trojans (-19)

Trojans may be without starting CB Adoree Jackson after injuring his hip flexor against Arizona. The freshman did not practice on Tuesday and his status remains uncertain for the game.

The Buffaloes have been dreading within the Pac-12 since they have joined the conference. Colorado has lost nine straight conference road games and are 2-13 in league road games since joining the Pac-12.

Tennessee Volunteers at (3) Ole Miss Rebels (-16.5)

The Volunteers defense has been keeping them around the past two weeks, allowing opposing offenses a grand total of 192 yards passing (86 ypg). This has vaulted them into the top 20 in the nation in yards allowed and points against.

Ole Miss has surrendered just 26 points in the first half of games so far this season, including just three in the first quarter.

(19) Nebraska Cornhuskers at Northwestern Wildcats (+7)

Nebraska should be getting LB David Santos back in the lineup after having the bye week to heal. "I would say [Santos] has a lot of leadership and his knowledge of the game, it makes it a lot easier when you are playing next to someone and communicating and both on the same page," fellow LB Trevor Roach said.

Despite arguably QB Trevor Siemian having his best game of the season last week, coach Pat Fitzgerald was still not impressed. “We threw the ball obviously not well enough to win the football game."

(5) Notre Dame at (2) Florida State Seminoles (-11.5)

Coach Brian Kelly has some concerns about the game Saturday, but it's not really FSU. "Our problems have been self inflicted," the coach said. "So I'm more concerned about our self inflicted wounds than I am what may happen because of the environment."

The offense for the Seminoles has been getting all the media attention, but the defense has been doing a great job of protecting leads. FSU ranks eighth in the country in red zone defense only allowing points in 65.22 percent of opponents trips within the 20.

Washington Huskies at (9) Oregon Ducks (-21)

Through six games this season, the Huskies have surrounded only one turnover. If Washington keeps up that pace (.16 TO per game) then they will break the record for fewest turnovers in a season set by Clemson in 1940, Miami (OH) in 1966 and Notre Dame in 2000.

In recent memory there may be no team that has dominated opponents quite like Oregon. All but eight of the Ducks 52 victories since 2010 have been by more than 14 points.

(20) Stanford Cardinals at (18) Arizona State Sun Devils (+3.5)

Cardinals coach David Shaw has relished in facing the top teams in the nation. Shaw is 14-6 all time against AP Top 25 ranked teams.

It is still undetermined in Sun Devils starter Taylor Kelly will be back or if it will be Mike Bercovici again. Kelly " is able to move the down markers in very different ways. Whether it’s with his legs, with the run game or just making great decisions," according to ASU coach Todd Graham. "I believe that (Mike) is just a great extension of him. Obviously, he brings a lot to it with his ability to create a rhythm passing game."

Total Notes - Week 8
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 7 Recap

Bettors saw their nice share of shootouts in Week 7, especially in the late afternoon games on Saturday. In particular, Baylor outlasted TCU 60-53 and Notre Dame held off North Carolina 50-43 in the midday matchups. According to our numbers, the ‘over’ went 27-25-1 in matchups with FBS schools.

Big Five Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

The ‘under’ went 3-1 in the four head-to-head ACC matchups in Week 7 and one school that continues to help this cause is Louisville. The Cardinals have seen the ‘under’ go 6-1 this season and that number could improve this weekend as they meet N.C. State at home. The total opened at 50 ½ and has already seen ‘under’ money. Miami, Fl. and North Carolina played in non-conference games shootouts last week and both of those outcomes resulted in ‘over’ winners.

The Big Ten watched ‘over’ go 3-2 last Saturday and most of the results were clear-cut. Michigan State (5-1) and Ohio State (4-1) are the best ‘over’ clubs while Northwestern (see below) has been an automatic ‘under’ play in the first-half of the season.

There were some close calls for total bettors in the Big 12 last week and few outcomes could’ve easily went the other way. A late touchdown in the Iowa State-Toledo game helped the ‘over’ cash while a game-winning 55-yard field goal in the West Virginia-Texas Tech matchup prevented overtime and a winning ‘under’ ticket.

Despite having three totals listed at 66 or higher last week, the offensive juggernauts of the Pac-12 didn’t deliver as the ‘under’ produced a 4-0 record. Bettors expecting California and Washington State to light up the scoreboard again were disappointed. The pair combined for 117 in Week 6 but just 24 points last weekend. Stanford (5-0) and Washington (5-1) continue to be golden for ‘under’ bettors.

The ‘under’ went 4-2 in the SEC last weekend and the best bet this season has been playing the ‘under’ in Ole Miss games (5-1). The Rebels stifled Texas A&M 35-20 on the road in Week 7 and the combined 55 points never threatened the closing number of 64. This Saturday, Ole Miss hosts Tennessee and this is the lowest total (46.5) that the Rebels have seen this season.

Streaks to Watch

Under 6-0
San Diego State – Aztecs host Hawaii
Northwestern – Wildcats host Nebraska

Under 5-0
Stanford – Cardinal visit Arizona State

Big 12 Shootouts

As mentioned above, the Big 12 caught some extra attention as Baylor and TCU put up the most points in game between a pair of AP top-10 schools since 1936. The Bears have been known to light up the scoreboard but the Horned Frogs exploding was a bit of a surprise.

We asked VegasInsider.com Totals Expert James Manos to weigh in on the Big 12 and touch on three games for Week 8, two of them including the aforementioned teams.

Baylor at West Virginia (80.5)

“I'm really not surprised to see the number open on the Baylor-West Virginia game where it did. These two teams have played some crazy games the last two seasons (63-70, 73-42) but it's very difficult to post numbers this high and get two-way action. I did make the number slightly higher at 83, and I think you'll see it close nearer to that number than the opener of 78. Baylor averages 87 plays per game on the road and WVU averages 81 plays per game at home so we're expected to see nearly 170 offensive snaps in this contest. With both teams averaging over 6 yards per play this season, that would produce over 1,000 yards of total offense and lead us to a total in the 80's. Some things to note here though, this Baylor defense is better than the two previous editions and the Bears are actually averaging nearly a yard per play less than last season. However, on the flip side, this WVU offense is much better than the last two year's editions and the Mountaineers are averaging nearly a yard per play more than last season. “

Kansas at Texas Tech (58.5)

“I'm surprised at the movement upward in the Kansas game as I see little reason to expect too much of an improvement when changing coaches in the middle of the season. I have the Jayhawks projected for just more than 300+ yards of offense in this game and if this game goes OVER the heavy lifting will have to be done by the Red Raiders. But with Texas Tech off a heart wrenching max effort vs WVU last week how much energy and focus will they have to face the lowly Jayhawks? This number was bet up based solely on the expected pace of the Red Raiders but I worry about their motivation and mental state in an obvious flat spot for them.”

Oklahoma State at TCU (62)

“I think the TCU game from last week was an outlier. That's not the type of game that TCU HC Patterson wants to get involved with but game dynamics and the flow of the game swept up the Horned Frogs and the game became an up-n-down shootout. I wouldn't expect that pace and style to continue this week especially since it didn't result in a win for the Horned Frogs. OSU has played up-tempo but they don't have the dynamic offense of year's past and I would expect the TCU defense to control the pace of this game. With QB Boykin hurting a bit, expect a return to the ground game from TCU, and Patterson has done a very good job of prepping his team for this OSU offense. TCU returns 8 starters to a defense that held OSU to 24 points and 2.7 yards per rush last year.”

Line Moves

VI Totals Expert James Manos analyzes line moves in the totals market for us and breaks them into four categories. I provide some quick thoughts and you can see from the last few weeks that Manos has a solid pulse on the totals market.

Week 8

1) Correct Sharp Movement – Kansas State-Oklahoma Under
This game opened 61 ½ and dropped to 55 as of Friday evening. The Sooners have watched the ‘over’ go 5-1 in their six games but they haven’t faced a defense like Kansas State, which is ranked second in the Big 12 in both yards (315.8) and points allowed (21 PPG).

2) Incorrect Sharp Movement – Michigan State-Indiana Under
The sharps bet the Spartans ‘under’ last week and they watched Michigan State go ‘over’ once again, now 5-1 this season. Question marks surrounding Indiana’s offense, which lost another quarterback to injury.

3) Public Movement – Baylor-West Virginia Over
See Above

4) Market Manipulation – Georgia Tech-North Carolina Over
This line opened 69, dropped to 67 ½ and spiked back up to 70 ½ all over a two-day span. As of Friday, it’s back to 68 ½ points. North Carolina has the worst defense (43.3 PPG) in the ACC but as most of you know, Georgia Tech takes its time running the football. Two years ago in Chapel Hill, G-Tech defeated UNC 68-50 in a wild shootout.

Game of the Day: Notre Dame at Florida State
By Covers.com

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Florida State Seminoles (-11.5)

Second-ranked Florida State puts its school-record 22-game winning streak — and perhaps its hopes of repeating as national champion — on the line when it hosts No. 5 Notre Dame on Saturday. The Seminoles have dodged a couple of upset bids in their title defense and face their toughest test yet as they aim for their eighth straight win over a ranked team. The Fighting Irish could vault into the playoff picture with a victory but still have two more road trips scheduled against ranked opponents.

A loss wouldn't necessarily knock the Seminoles out of the four-team playoff picture, but their schedule is relatively weak compared to teams from other power conferences and could hurt them when considering other one-loss teams. "Anytime you play a high-ranked opponent you want to be successful because it gives you tons of credibility," Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher told reporters. "We don't look at it as an end-all game, but it's a very important game." Florida State has won five of seven all-time meetings, but the the Fighting Irish emerged victorious in the only previous clash in Tallahassee in 2002.

LINE HISTORY: The opening the line sat at FSU-12.5, but action on Notre Dame has shifted the line to FSU -11.5.

INJURY REPORT: Notre Dame - N/A FSU - WR Rashad Greene (Prob-Foot), RB Karlos Williams (Ques-Ankle), DT Derrick Mitchell Jr. (Ques-Knee)

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night for football. Temperatures will be near 85°F with no humidity and clear skies.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "With Jameis Winston behind center this becomes a showdown of two quarterbacks who have each never lost a regular season start on the college level. Interestingly, defending national champions are only 10-17-2 ATS since 1980 as favorites of less than 14 points a matchup of undefeated teams. The off-field distraction factor can’t help the Seminoles chances today." - Covers Expert Marc Lawrence

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened this at FSU -12.5 and moved up to -13.5 with the early action. We've since pulled the game off the board amid the uncertainty surrounding Jameis Winston’s status. If he plays I could see this reaching -16. If he doesn't we have to be careful because bettors hammered Clemson, and won, when he was suspended earlier this season." - John Lester Senior Lines Manager at Bookmaker.eu

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (6-0): The Irish have boasted one of the nation's top defenses for most of the season, but that reputation was dinged in last week's 50-43 win over North Carolina. If it turns into a shootout, Notre Dame's offense is in good hands with quarterback Everett Golson, who has passed for 16 touchdowns and rushed for a team-high four scores. Golson has thrown TD passes to eight different receivers, but his favorite target is Will Fuller, who has grabbed 35 receptions for 504 yards and seven TDs — all team-highs.

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (6-0): While the Seminoles have kept along on the field, controversy continues to surround Heisman Trophy quarterback Jameis Winston, whose off-field distractions now include Florida State reportedly investigating whether he accepted payment for signing memorabilia. All is well between the lines for the offense, though, particularly Winston and star wideout Rashad Greene, who became the school's all-time leading receiver with 215 receptions after snagging six passes in a 38-20 win at Syracuse on Saturday and leads the ACC in nearly every receiving category. The defense has allowed opponents to move the ball but has stiffened inside the 20, allowing only 10 touchdowns on 25 red-zone trips.

TRENDS:

*Fighting Irish are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
*Seminoles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
*Under is 9-2-1 in Fighting Irish last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
*Under is 4-0 in Seminoles last 4 home games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 68.83 percent of Covers users are backing the Fighting Irish +11.5.

College Football Betting News and Notes
Covers.com

SMU suspends newly anointed starting running back

SMU suspended running back K.C. Nlemchi for a violation of unspecified team rules, interim coach Tom Mason confirmed Thursday.

The winless Mustangs now face Cincinnati on Saturday without the services of their second-leading rusher.

Mason said the earliest Nlemchi could return would be Oct. 25 against Memphis.

Nlemchi had won the starting job during the Mustangs' bye week.

Texas to be without starting DB versus Iowa State

The long list of secondary issues continues to grow for the Texas Longhorns. Starting DB Jason Hall suffered a patellar tendon injury in the Red River RIvalry game last week.

Hall was thrust into the starting lineup when Chevoski Collins (dismissed from program) and Josh Turner (suspended) were removed from the roster earlier in the season.

Indiana could be down to third-string quarterback

Indiana was already dealt a big hit when they lost starting quarterback Nate Sudfeld to a shoulder injury, but backup Chris Covington could be out of the lineup as well. Though Covington was listed as the starter Tuesday, his mother said her son will not play according to Indystar.com.

That would likely elevate third-string freshman Zander Diamont into the starting role.

Meyer has history of owning new head coaches

Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer has a history of dominating other coaches he's faced for the first time.

The 50-year-old is 78-15 in his first time facing a new coach. No. 13 Ohio State hosts Rutgers Saturday, and sure enough, it's going to be Meyer's first time seeing Scarlet Knights' head coach Kyle Flood on the opposite side of the field.

The Buckeyes are currently 19-point home faves for the game.

Clemson plagued with injury concerns at QB

Despite Clemson picking up their first win of the year last week, the news wasn't all good, as the Tigers lost their starting quarterback in their matchup vs. Louisville.

Deshaun Watson broke a small bone in his finger and will be sidelined for at least a month. Tigers backup quarterback Cole Stoudt played well in relief, but there are injury concerns surrounding him as well.

Stoudt suffered a shoulder seperation against North Carolina State earlier in the month which held him out of practice, and required a painkilling injection just to fill in versus the Cardinals.

Stoudt is expected to be on the field Saturday when Clemson faces off against Boston College in Massachusetts Saturday.

The Eagles are currently 5-point home dogs for the matchup.

Baylor putting up huge numbers in first half

A lot has been made about the high-flying Baylor offense so far this season, but it's their ability to dominate early in games that really stands out.

The Bears are outscoring opponents 104-21 in the first quarter and 80-20 in the second quarter this year. Bryce Petty's squad travels to Morgantown for a date with the West Virginia Mountaineers Saturday.

No. 4 Baylor is currently 8-point road faves for the contest.

Arkansas could be without LB Ellis

Arkansas is likely to be without their staring MLB Brooks Ellis Saturday. The sophomore suffered a deep bone bruise that will likely keep him sidelined for some time according to coach Bret Bielema.

Ellis is second on the Razorbacks with 39 tackles this season.

Kennedy 'will be ready to go' for Texas A&M

Texas A&M has been dealing with injuries to their receiving corps that has shown up over their two straight loses. Malcome Kennedy "will be ready to go" according to coach Kevin Sumlin.

Kennedy has 33 receptions for 378 yards despite missing two-and-a-half games this season.

Kansas State's rushing defense dominating backs

The Kansas State Wildcats have been a defensive juggernaut this season, which is a big part of why they're 4-1 SU and ranked No. 14 in the country.

The Wildcats' rushing defense inparticular has allowed only 81.4 rushing yards against, while giving up just three rushing touchdowns.

Kansas State will try their best to contain Oklahoma running back Samaje Perine in Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium Saturday.

The Wildcats are currently 8-point road dogs for the contest.

Is Texas A&M's offense drying up?

After a blazing hot start, Texas A&M's offense has come back down to earth recently.

In the Aggies' first five games, they averaged 51.2 points and went 34 of 63 on third downs. Over their last two weeks, they've averaged 25.5 points and are just 12 of 35 on third downs.

Kenny Hill and the No. 21 Aggies travel to Tuscaloosa for a date with the No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide Saturday.

Bama is currently 14-point home dogs for the matchup.

Arkansas allowing RB's to dominate this season

If Arkansas expects to compete with No. 10 Georgia in Week 8 college football action Saturday, they're going to have to tighten up their rush defense.

The Razorbacks have allowed an average of 145.8 yards per game and 8.4 rushing first downs per game. Even without the talented Todd Gurley, Georgia's running game looked great against Mizzou in their Week 7 34-0 throttling of the Tigers.

The Bulldogs are currently 3.5-point road faves with an Over/Under of 54.5 for the contest.

High-flying offense taking TCU to new heights

Texas Christian University's surge to the polls this season in large part due to their much improved offense.

The Horned Frogs boast the nation's most improved power five conference unit (+165.2 ypg) compared to last season. No. 12 TCU hosts No. 15 Oklahoma State Saturday.

TCU is currently 10-point home faves for the matchup. The total presently sits at 62.

Marshall not complacent since breaking Top 25

The Marshall Thundering Herd (No. 24) are the only ranked team from C-USA and broke the Top 25 for the first time this season, but that doesn't mean they're content where they are.

Wideout Tommy Shuler said "I feel like we're better than our ranking. I'm not satisfied with that."

Marshall faces off against Florida International in the Sunshine State Saturday. The Thundering Herd are currently 22.5-point road faves with an O/U of 55.5.

Colorado struggling on the road vs. Pac-12 teams

The Colorado Buffaloes have had a hard time on the road against their inter-conference rivals.

Colorado has lost nine straight conference road games versus fellow Pac-12 teams and are 2-13 in road games since joining the conference.

That's a troubling trend for Buffaloes backers, as they'll be away from home once again for a date with No. 25 Southern California Saturday.

The Trojans are currently 21-point home faves with a total of 62 for the matchup.

Tennessee's defense posting fantastic numbers

The Tennessee Volunteers' defense has been allowing them to hang around in games as of late.

The Vols' D has been rock solid, allowing only 192 yards passing combined over the last two weeks. As a result, Tennessee has vaulted into the top 20 in the nation in yards allowed and points against.

The Volunteers take on No. 3 Mississippi Saturday. The Rebels are currently 16.5-point home faves with a total of 46.5 for the matchup.