Games to Watch - Week 9
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Vanderbilt at Texas A&M
As of Wednesday morning, most books had Texas A&M (5-2 straight up, 3-4 against the spread) as an 18-point favorite with a total of 68½. Vanderbilt (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) rallied from a double-digit second-half deficit to upset Georgia 31-27 as a seven-point home underdog this past Saturday. QB Austyn Carta-Samuels was injured in the first half against UGA and isn’t expected to play in College Station. Patton Robinette will get his first career start. He helped orchestrate the comeback against UGA with a touchdown run early in the fourth quarter. Texas A&M is coming off a devastating 45-41 home loss to Auburn as a 14-point favorite. Johnny Manziel injured his shoulder in the second half and missed one series. He didn’t practice Monday but is expected to be ready by Saturday. Manziel leads the SEC in passing yards, passing touchdowns (18), total offense and passing efficiency. He is 11th in the conference in rushing yards and has six rushing scores. His favorite target Mike Evans leads the league in receiving yards. The Aggies are 5-4 ATS as home favorites on Kevin Sumlin’s watch. Vandy has compiled a 4-3 spread record as a road underdog during James Franklin’s tenure. The ‘over’ has cashed at a 6-1 overall clip for A&M, going 4-1 in its home games. The ‘over’ is 4-3 overall for the Commodores, 1-1 in their road contests. This is the SEC Game of the Week at 12:20 p.m. Eastern in the South. Viewers elsewhere can get this game as a part of the ESPN Game Plan.
Tennessee at Alabama
As of Wednesday morning, most betting shops had Alabama (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS) as a 28½-point favorite with a total of 51½. The Crimson Tide trounced Arkansas 52-0 in Tuscaloosa last weekend. An 80-yard TD run by Derrick Henry sent ‘over’ backers to the ticket counter with a winner when all seemed lost after the Razorbacks were stopped on downs in the final two minutes. The total had closed at 49. Senior QB A.J. McCarron improved to 33-2 in 35 career starts. McCarron has a 14/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2013. Butch Jones’s squad is coming off two strong performances at home, taking Georgia to overtime before losing a heartbreaker nearly three weeks ago. In bounce-back mode after an open date, Tennessee (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) beat South Carolina 23-21 on a walk-off field goal. They won outright as 7½-point home underdogs. The ‘over’ is 4-3 overall for UT, 2-0 in its road assignments. The ‘under’ is 3-1 in the Tide’s four home outings. ‘Bama has won six in a row over UT, going 5-1 ATS with the lone non-cover coming in Lane Kiffin’s only season with the Vols. CBS will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
Texas Tech at Oklahoma
As of early Wednesday, most spots had Oklahoma (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) listed as a seven-point home favorite with a total of 58. The Red Raiders are +230 on the money line (risk $100 to win $230). The Sooners are 27-17-1 ATS as home ‘chalk’ since 2006. Texas Tech (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) hasn’t faced a murderer’s row of opponents by any means so far, but new head coach Kliff Kingsbury is doing a masterful job nonetheless. The school’s second all-time leading passer and youngest FBS coach has used a pair of freshmen at QB in leading his squad to an unbeaten start a 4-0 record in Big 12 play. The Red Raiders hooked up their betting supporters in last week’s 37-27 win at West Virginia by outscoring the Mountaineers 14-0 in the final stanza. They took the money thanks to a 10-yard TD pass from Davis Webb to Jace Amaro with 1:01 remaining as 4½-point road favorites. Webb threw for 462 yards and a pair of scores without being intercepted. He and Baker Mayfield have combined to throw for 2,915 yards and nine TDs through seven games. OU won its first five games before getting thumped 36-20 by Texas. Then last week, the Sooners fell down 13-0 at Kansas before rallying for a 33-18 triumph although they failed to cover as 21-point favorites. The ‘over’ is 5-2 for Texas Tech, 3-0 in its previous road assignments. The ‘under’ is 4-3 for OU overall, 3-1 in its home games. Kickoff is slated for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on FOX.
Baylor at Kansas
As of early Wednesday, most books had Baylor (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) favored by 35 with a total of 66½. Art Briles’s team trounced Iowa St. by a 71-7 count as a 33-point home ‘chalk’ last weekend. Bryce Petty threw for 343 yards and two TDs without an interception, while RB Lache Seastrunk ran for 118 yards and a pair of scores. For the season, Petty is completing 71.0 percent of his passes for 2,033 yards with a 15/1 TD-INT ratio. And remember, Petty has only gone the distance in a 35-25 win at Kansas St. that was the Bears’ only game that wasn’t decided by halftime. Seastrunk has run for 760 yards in the nation’s No. 1 offense that’s averaging 64.7 points and more than 700 yards of offense per game. The ‘over’ cashed in Baylor’s first four games, but the ‘under’ is 1-0-1 in their last two times out. Kansas (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS) gave OU an early scare and took the cash in last week’s home loss, but second-year head coach Charlie Weis is feeling the heat in Lawrence with just three wins since he took over before the 2012 campaign. The Jayhawks are 4-2 ATS as home underdogs under Weis. The Bears are 2-4 ATS as road favorites during Briles’s tenure. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.
Fresno State at San Diego State
As of early Wednesday, most books had Fresno St. (6-0 SU, 1-5 ATS) favored by 8½ or nine with a total of 61½. The Bulldogs are racking up victories for themselves, but they’re killing their backers. That continued this past Saturday when Fresno St. beat UNLV 38-14 as a 25-point home favorite. Derek Carr is enjoying a stellar senior campaign, completing 70.4 percent of his throws for 2,276 yards with a 23/4 TD-INT ratio. San Diego St. (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) has won three in a row since losing its first three. The Aztecs have had two weeks to prep for this spot after pulling out a 27-20 comeback win at Air Force. They trailed the Falcons 20-6 going into the final stanza before Quinn Kaehler threw a pair of scoring strikes to (almost) tie the game until the PAT failed. Then with 1:39 remaining, Donnel Pumphrey put SDS up for good with a 10-yard TD scamper. As a home underdog under Rocky Long, SDS has a 2-2 spread record. ESPN2 will have the telecast at 10:30 p.m. Eastern.
College Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Texas Tech at Oklahoma
Texas Tech Red Raiders are a top-10 team with a 7-0 (5-2 ATS) record highlighted by a 4-0 (3-1 ATS) Big 12 mark that has the team in first place in the conference. Texas Tech's offense hitting on all cylinders during the stretch producing 41.1 PPG on a whopping 548.1 total yards/game split between 416.4 passing, 131.7 rushing yards/game will be tested. Sooners' have the nation's top pass protection (149.7 PYG) and are no slouches at containing the ground game (143.7 RYG). Tested yes. But, TT offensive prowess keeps this one within the spread range or even better, another upset victory like the one on this field back in 2011. Sooners 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games, 2-5 ATS against a team with a winning record were recommending Red Raiders.
Texas at TCU
Texas off a 36-20 win over ranked Oklahoma two weeks ago bring a three-game winning streak into Fort Worth when they take on TCU. Longhorns 4-2 (3-3 ATS) on the campaign including perfection within the Big-12 at 3-0 (2-1 ATS) are curious underdogs given Horned Frogs 3-4 (2-5 ATS) record, 1-3 SU/ATS mark within the conference. Horned Frogs inconsistent offense lead by QB Trevone Boykin (1152 yds, 5 TD, 7 Int) averaging 25.7 PPG and just 16.0 PPG vs conference opponents can't be trusted against Longhorns balanced attack notching 33.0 PPG behind 254 passing, 202.7 rushing yards/game. Expect Longhorns to exact revenge for a 20-13 loss to TCU in Austin last year and expect Horned Frogs to slip to 1-8 ATS as a favorite, 0-6 ATS at home vs the conference since moving to the Big-12.
Stanford at Oregon State
Oregon State Beavers' and Stanford Cardinal chasing Oregon Ducks for top spot in the PAC-12 North Division will both be gunning for a win when they collide at Reser Stadium on Saturday night. As long as Stanford doesn't get caught looking ahead to the Nov 7th home date with Oregon Ducks coach David Shaw's troops will be fine. Stanford lead by QB Hogan and his big-play receiver Ty Montgomery will shred Beavers' leaky secondary allowing 265.0 passing yards/game. Consider sticking with Stanford as they've been brutes in true road games going 15-3 SU, 14-3-1 ATS L18 away and a solid 7-2 ATS on the road vs a Pac-12 opponent.
ACC Report - Week 9
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Last weekend was the game of the year, and only one Atlantic Coast Contender decided to show up. The Florida State Seminoles cemented their place in the national championship discussion for the remainder of the season, thumping Clemson in Death Valley by a 51-14 score. And, to be honest, it wasn't even that close. The Tigers scored with the second-team offense in the closing minutes, making those who had the 'over' pretty pleased.
As a result of their resounding win, the Seminoles found themselves ranked No. 2 in the first installment of the BCS standings behind defending national champion Alabama. It's uncertain if that can or will last, but FSU certainly looked like a title contender last weekend. Will they be able to keep that same kind of focus with a visit from North Carolina State this weekend? They have another huge game coming up against the ACC's only other unbeaten team, the rival Miami Hurricanes, next weekend. It will be interesting to see how the Seminoles handle their success.
Wake Forest at Miami, Fl.
The Hurricanes snuck out of Chapel Hill last Thursday with a narrow win at North Carolina, keeping their record unblemished. It will be interesting to see how the 'Canes respond at home against another inferior conference opponent, especially with a huge game against rival Florida State looming next weekend in Tallahassee. This might be viewed as a 'trap' game, but Wake Forest is just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 games, and 1-4 ATS in their past five road contests. The Demon Deacons are also 2-8 ATS in their past 10 games against a team with a winning record. Miami is 5-0 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning record, and 8-1 ATS in their past nine home games. Plus, the Canes are an impressive 14-3 ATS in their past 17 ACC games. Miami leads the all-time series 7-3, and they have won six straight meetings.
Georgia Tech at Virginia
This is a very interesting game that bettors need to pay attention to closely. The Yellow Jackets are installed as a 10-point favorite, and the early indications are the public is piling on Georgia Tech at a 2-to-1 clip. That might be because Georgia Tech is 8-2 ATS in their past 10 conference games, including a 56-0 dusting of Syracuse last weekend at Bobby Dodd Stadium. The Yellow Jackets are 5-2 ATS in their past seven against a team with a losing record, and 9-4 ATS in their past 13 overall. Meanwhile, UVA comes in just 7-20 ATS in their past 27 against teams with a winning record, and 3-9 ATS in their past 12 ACC games. The Cavs are also just 2-10-1 ATS in their past 13 at Scott Stadium. However, keep in mind that UVA is 6-1 ATS in their past seven home games against Georgia Tech, the favorite has covered eight of the past 11 meetings in this series, and the home team is an impressive 12-3 ATS in the past 15 meetings. Which trends do you like more? With conflicting information, I like to think this game screams stay away from the line. The total sits at 47, and the over is 5-2 in GT's past seven road games. The over is also 5-1 in UVA's past six, and 4-0 in their past four home games. The over is also 4-1 in Virginia's past five against a team with a winning mark.
Pittsburgh at Navy
The Panthers look for their fifth win of the season on the road in Annapolis, while the Midshipmen look to keep their heads above water, pun totally intended. The Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their past seven, while the Middies are 4-9 ATS in their past 13 home games. There are no really good trends here, other than Navy being 2-0 ATS at home, while Pittsburgh is 0-2 ATS on the road. The total is listed at 51 1/2, and the 'under' has come through in each of the past three for Pittsburgh after the over was 3-0 in their first three contests. The under has cashed in four of the past five for the Midshipmen.
Boston College at North Carolina
The Tar Heels are still stinging after its latest defeat at home against unbeaten Miami. UNC nearly had a much-needed signature win on a national stage, but instead slipped to 1-5 on the season. For those thinking Boston College might be a pushover, and the type of team for the Tar Heels to play to get back on track, think again. QB Chase Rettig, RB Andre Williams and WR Alex Amidon are a three-headed monster on offense. In fact, Williams leads the conference in rushing with 838 yards, and Amidon has posted 10 career 100-yard receiving games. BC is a very disciplined team, too, committing a conference-low 22 penalties with just six turnovers. BC is 0-3 all-time in Chapel Hill, however, so if they keep the Heels down, it will be a first for them. BC is 4-1 ATS in their past five conference games, but 7-20 ATS in their past 27 against a team with a losing record, and 1-7 ATS in their past eight on the road. UNC is 9-3 ATS in their past 12 at home, including last week against Miami. The under could be the best play here, as the under is 20-7-1 in BC's past 28 ACC games, and 36-14-1 in their past 51 road games. The under is 5-1 in UNC's past six, and 4-1 in their past five ACC games.
Duke at Virginia Tech
The Blue Devils are back in the state of Virginia for a second straight week, looking for similar results to the ones they found in Charlottesville last weekend. Duke spotted UVA a 22-0 lead last week, only to storm back with 35 unanswered points for a 35-22 win. Virginia Tech is a lot better of a team, though, and falling behind early would be fatal. And the Hokies are rested, coming off a bye. The Blue Devils are 31st in the nation in offense, and QB Brandon Connette, while only a part-time player, has managed 19 touchdown passes, third-most in the ACC behind only Florida State's Jameis Winston and Clemson's Tajh Boyd. Duke can certainly score, but their defense has been a little flaky. In the last meeting Oct. 13, Clemson won 41-20. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings, and Duke is just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 road games. The Blue Devils are also 1-6 ATS in their past seven road games against a team with a winning record, while the Hokies are 6-0 ATS in their past six home games agaisnt a team with a winning road record.
Clemson at Maryland
Clemson was absolutely buried at home, and now they must pick themselves up off the mat and get back on track. A sluggish start wouldn't be shocking in this one given their embarrassing loss to FSU at home last week. While Clemson is 6-1 ATS in their past seven road games, they are just 1-5 ATS in their past six against a team with a winning record. Maryland is 4-1 ATS in their past five home games, but just 4-13 ATS in their past 17 ACC games. The under might be the best play. The under is 13-4 in Clemson's past 17, and 9-2 in their past 11 road games against a team with a winning home record. The under is also 6-1 in the past seven meetings in this series, and 5-2 in the past seven meetings
North Carolina State at Florida State
Will history repeat itself? The Seminoles looked to be hitting on all cylinders last season before a trip to Raleigh sent them tumbling. The 'Noles fell 17-16 at Carter-Finley Stadium, and have a little payback to do. FSU crushed Clemson last week, and face Miami next week, so could there be a little bit of a lull? Or is this a different FSU team? NC State is coming off a bye, but they also were pounded by a terrible Syracuse team, 24-10, in their last outing. NC State is 1-7-1 ATS in their past nine road games, and 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven road games against a team with a winning home record. FSU is 4-0 ATS in their past four home games and 6-1 ATS in their past seven overall. The only thing to worry about here is a hangover/look-ahead situation.
Bye
Syracuse
Pac-12 Report - Week 9
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
The Pac-12 had a marquee games of its own last week, and unlikely Florida State-Clemson in the ACC, the UCLA-Stanford game was a pretty decent contest. In the end, the Cardinal bumped the Bruins from the ranks of the unbeaten, leaving only Oregon as the west coast team with serious national championship aspirations.
It will be an interesting week in the Pac-12. Bettors have been pounding Arizona State overs this season, but they are on a bye. And Washington State has been surprising effective against the spread, covering six of their eight contests. But they, too, are off this weekend. However, there is still plenty of money to be made within the Pac-12.
Utah at Southern California
The Utes hit the road to meet the Trojans in a battle of 4-3 teams. Utah upended Stanford at Rice-Eccles two weeks ago, but then lost straight-up and ATS on the road in Tucson last weekend. They are now just 1-4 ATS in their past five road contests, and 1-6 ATS in their past seven Pac-12 games overall. Plus, Utah is 2-5 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record. USC is also 2-5 ATS in their past seven conference tilts, and just 3-9 ATS in their past 12 against a team with a winning record. If you're to pay attention to this game, it might be because of the total. The total is set at 54, and the trends all seem to indicate the under. The under is 4-0 in Utah's past four outings, and 6-2 in their past eight road games. The under is 7-2 in USC's past nine games, and 34-16-1 in their past 51 home games.
UCLA at Oregon
The difficult schedule continues for UCLA. The Bruins were dumped 24-10 in Palo Alto, and now they need to contend with the high-octane Ducks. This game could be fun, and hopefully the scoreboard operator at Autzen Stadium has limbered up his/her fingers. UCLA is 5-1 ATS in their past six games, and 4-1 ATS in their past five road games against a team with a winning home mark. Meanwhile, Oregon is 14-3 ATS in their past 17, 9-2 ATS in their past 11 conference battles, and 6-1 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record. The only real negative trend is Oregon is 1-5 ATS in the past six home games against a team with a winning road record, and they failed to cover last weekend at home against Washington State. Does that mean a 23-point line against QB Brett Hundley and the Bruins is a little too much? We'll soon see.
Arizona at Colorado
Colorado opened the season 2-0 SU and ATS, and things looked to be turning around after a dismal season last year. Then, the floods came in the state of Colorado, their home game against Fresno State was cancelled, and after a three-week break, the Buffs looked like their former selves. Colorado was waxed at Oregon State. They were waxed at home against Oregon. And they were waxed at Arizona State. They did step out of conference to pound Charleston Southern last weekend, but back inside the Pac-12, they could very well be waxed again this weekend. The Wildcats are looking pretty sharp, beating a solid Utah team last week. RB Ka'Deem Carey is piecing together another strong season, averaging six yards per tote. Arizona routed Colorado 56-31 Nov. 10, 2012, and it wouldn't be shocking to see a similar result here. While Arizona is 2-5 ATS in the past seven Pac-12 games, Colorado is just 7-21 ATS in their past 28 conference tilts. Plus, Colorado is just 4-10 ATS in their past 14 at home.
Stanford at Oregon State
I've actually watched each of the past six Oregon State games, and they are a fun team to watch. QB Sean Mannion is one of the best, and perhaps most underrated, quarterbacks in the nation, and WR Brandin Cooks is equally efficient and extraordinary. And with RB Storm Woods back from concussion, this offense is hitting on all cylinders again. They'll be put to the test against a solid Stanford defense, which limited UCLA to just 10 points last week. The Cardinal are 17-8 ATS in their past 25 games against a team with a winning record, and 35-17-1 ATS in the past 53 games overall. Plus, they're 19-7-1 ATS in the past 27 road games, and 20-8-1 ATS in their past 29 Pac-12 tilts. Oregon State is 4-0 ATS in the past four conference battles, and 9-3-1 ATS in their past 13 games against a team with a winning record. Head-to-head, the home team is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. However, the favorite is 5-2 ATS in the past seven, and the Cardinal are 4-1 ATS in their past five meetings with the Beavers. However, Stanford has covered just two of their past eight trips to Corvallis.
California at Washington
The Cal Bears have been horrendous, and last weekend they were crushed at home by Oregon State. Washington has dropped three straight at Stanford, home against Oregon and at Arizona State. The Huskies are going to be awfully ornery, and they could take their frustrations out on the conference's punching bag. Cal has failed to cover in each of its seven games. while Washington is 3-1 ATS at home this season. Washington is also 13-3 ATS in their past 16 home games, and 9-2 ATS in their past 11 against teams with a losing record. In this series, the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings, but Cal is 0-4 ATS in their past four meetings with U-Dub.
Byes
Arizona State, Washington State
College Football Handicapping: Week 9 Injury Report
By Brian Edwards
Sportsmemo.com
Kentucky QB Max Smith will get the starting nod Thursday at Mississippi St. Jalen Whitlow sprained his ankle in a 48-7 loss to Alabama two weeks ago and is ‘doubtful’ against the Bulldogs. Smith is more of a pocket passer, while Whitlow is a dual-threat option who averages 4.9 yards per carry and has three rushing touchdowns. Smith, a third-year sophomore who had eight TD passes before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 3 last year, has a 5/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2013.
Vanderbilt quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels is ‘out’ Saturday at Texas A&M. Carta-Samuels, who has a 10/7 TD-INT ratio this season, left last week’s 31-27 win over Georgia with a knee injury in the first half. After Wednesday’s practice in Nashville, Vandy head coach James Franklin refused to rule his starting QB out, saying he practiced on a limited basis and would have a chance to play if continues to progress. FRIDAY UPDATE: As was initially thought earlier in the week (perhaps some gamesmanship from Franklin on Wednesday), Carta-Samuels is ‘out.’ Patton Robinette, a redshirt freshman, replaced Carta-Samuels and had a TD run early in the fourth quarter of the comeback win over UGA. Robinette might will make his first career start against the Aggies.
Maryland might have been the biggest overall loser coming out of Week 8. The Terrapins got smashed 34-10 at Wake Forest and lost two of their best players to broken legs. WR Stefon Diggs is done for the season after producing 912 all-purpose yards in the first seven games. Also, second-leading receiver Deon Long (32 catches for 489 yards) is out for the year. Both of these guys are future NFL players that will be sorely missed. UPDATE: Also, starting QB C.J. Brown is ‘out’ with an ankle injury and Caleb Rowe will get the start under center. Furthermore, RB Brandon Ross is ‘out.’ Ouch! Brown & Ross’s absences prompted books to move Clemson from a 14-point favorite to 16.5.
Boise St. senior QB Joe Southwick (11/5 TD-INT ratio) is out for at least the rest of the regular season after breaking his ankle in a non-covering home win over Nevada last weekend. After Southwick went out on the game’s first play from scrimmage, back-up Grant Hedrick completed 15-of-18 throws for 150 yards. Hedrick ran eight times for 115 yards and two TDs. He’ll make his first career start Friday at BYU.
Va. Tech CB Antone Exum is hoping to make his season debut Saturday vs. Duke. Exum tore his ACL in January and has been upgraded to ‘probable’ against the Blue Devils. Exum, a second-team All-ACC selection in 2012, had five interceptions and 16 passes broken up last year. The Hokies are coming off an open date.
UCLA’s leading rusher Jordon James has missed back-to-back games with a sprained ankle and is ‘questionable’ ‘doubtful’ Saturday at Oregon. James has rushed for 463 yards and five TDs, averaging 6.3 yards per carry. Chris Foster, UCLA’s beat writer for the Los Angeles Times, tweeted Thursday morning that James “still had a slight limp and seem another week away” from playing. FRIDAY UPDATE: Making things even more difficult for QB Brett Hundley will be the likely absence of three starting offensive linemen. Torian White was lost for the season three weeks ago and now Conor McDermott and Simon Goins are both ‘doubtful’ against the Ducks.
Oregon speedster De’Anthony Thomas is ‘probable’ to return Saturday vs. UCLA. He hasn’t played since suffering a high ankle sprain in a blowout win over California back on Sept. 28. In the Ducks’ first three games, Thomas had 512 all-purpose yards and six rushing scores.
Alabama safety Vinnie Sunseri is out for the season with a knee injury sustained in a 52-0 win over Arkansas. Sunseri is the only ‘Bama player in the secondary that has started the first seven games. Landon Collins, a true sophomore and former five-star recruit, will take Sunseri’s place in the starting lineup.
Washington QB Keith Price is ‘questionable’ has been upgraded to ‘probable’ for Saturday’s home game vs. Cal due to a thumb injury sustained against Stanford nearly three weeks ago. The Huskies are coming off a brutal three-game stretch, all losses, at Stanford, vs. Oregon and at Arizona St.
Missouri senior CB E.J. Gaines missed last week’s win over Florida with a quad issue. He remains ‘questionable’ Saturday vs. South Carolina.
Dylan Thompson will get the start at Missouri for the Gamecocks. Connor Shaw might be available as the back-up, but Thompson will get the start nonetheless. Shaw hurt his knee late in the fourth quarter of Saturday’s loss at Tennessee. Thompson has plenty of experience, throwing for 310 yards and three TDs without an interception in a 27-17 win at Clemson last season.
Ga. Tech LB Anthony Harrell is done for the rest of 2013 after hurting his leg in last week’s 56-0 home win over Syracuse. Harrell had just taken over as the starter at middle linebacker and had four tackles, including one for a loss, against the Orange.
Auburn starting safety Josh Hosley is out for the rest of the season after injuring his knee at practice last Thursday.
Kent St. QB Collin Reardon (10/4 TD-INT ratio) is ‘questionable’ has been upgraded to ‘probable’ vs. Buffalo. Reardon couldn’t play in a 38-21 loss at South Alabama due to a leg injury.
USC could be without two key offensive weapons vs. Utah. WR Marquise Lee (knee) and RB Tre Madden (hamstring) are both considered ‘questionable.’ Madden has rushed for a team-high 611 yards and three TDs, while Lee has 32 receptions for 403 yards and one TD.
Oregon St. TE Connor Hamlett will miss a second straight game vs. Stanford after having his knee scoped last week. Hamlett has made 25 catches for 198 yards and four TDs.
After missing last week’s home loss to Minnesota, Northwestern QB/WR Kain Colter will play Saturday at Iowa. However, star RB Venric Mark remains out with an ankle injury. Mark has only played one full game this year in a 40-30 home loss to Ohio St. He left the season opener against Cal in the first half and did the same at Wisconsin two weeks ago.
Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez (turf toe) has missed three consecutive games. Martinez (9/1 TD-INT ratio) remains a question mark has been upgraded to ‘probable’ for Saturday’s game at Minnesota.
UNLV star RB Tim Cornett is ‘doubtful’ at Nevada after leaving last week’s 38-14 loss at Fresno St. with a leg injury. Cornett has rushed for 709 yards and nine TDs this season, averaging 5.3 YPC. Cornett has also hauled in 19 receptions for 91 yards. The Rebels are 6.5 or seven-point ‘dogs against the Wolf Pack.
FSU running back James Wilder Jr. is ‘questionable’ vs. N.C. St. after suffering a concussion in Saturday’s easy blowout win at Clemson. Arkansas transfer Brandon Mitchell is expected to get the start at QB for the Wolfpack. Mitchell has missed five straight games with a foot injury.
Miami WR Phillip Dorsett is out indefinitely after sustaining a knee injury in last Thursday’s 27-23 win at North Carolina. Dorsett is UM’s second-leading receiver with 13 catches for 272 yards and two TDs.
College Football Betting Preview: West Virginia at Kansas State
By Andrew Lange
Sportsmemo.com
West Virginia at Kansas State
Saturday, 12:45 pm PT - FS1
CRIS Opener: Kansas State -7.5 O/U 52.5
CRIS Current: Kansas State -10.5 O/U 53
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Kansas State -11
Andrew Lange's Recommendation: Kansas State
Rested and ready, I expect a great effort from the Kansas State Wildcats this week and they play host to West Virginia. The Wildcats have four losses on the season but all were competitive – the types of games last year's veteran group was able to win. Considering the roster turnover, it shouldn't come as a shock to see K-State struggle in the W-L department. A noteworthy stat when comparing last year's group to this year's is turnover margin. The Wildcats had only 12 turnovers in 2012 and a +20 margin. This year they've had 22 turnovers and are near the bottom nationally at -11. Six games into the season, I expect that number to start to move in K-State's favor. This is sort of a rebuilding season for Bill Synder with a bowl berth the team's ultimate goal. With four out of their next five at home and the season finale at Kansas, that goal is very attainable.
I think West Virginia's win against Oklahoma State – who is considerably down from past editions – was a little fluky as OSU outgained the Mountaineers but committed three turnovers. I was on WVU last week against Texas Tech and while the effort was there AND they had an 11-point lead in the second half, the end result was a squad that isn't going to beat many teams without some fortunate bounces. The Red Raiders outgained WVU by 136 yards and when push came to shove scored three unanswered touchdowns en route to a 10-point win. That was an ideal spot (off a bye week) for West Virginia whereas now the tables turn and they head on the road facing a team off a bye who is itching to beat up on someone.
The line has moved in K-State's favor – now -10.5 at most offshore shops. I don't see it going higher so it may be wise to sit back and see if you can pick off a -10 or -9.5. Like the spot and matchup as the home side gets the job done.
College Football Betting Preview: Penn State at Ohio State
By Otto Sports
Sportsmemo.com
Penn State at Ohio State
Saturday, 5 pm PT - ABC
CRIS Opener: Ohio State -14.5 O/U 55.5
CRIS Current: Ohio State -14.5 o/U 56.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Ohio State -12
Marty Otto's Recommendation: Over
It’s a primetime ABC television tilt between Penn State and Ohio State as they renew their classic rivalry. The unbeaten Buckeyes survived a strong test from Iowa last week and look to keep their slim BCS title hopes alive. In order to do so they need to not only win but likely win by big margins moving forward as well as get a little help in the form of losses from two teams currently in front of them in the BCS rankings. For Penn State this likely represents their “BCS Title” game as they remain banned from the postseason.
Give much credit to Bill O’Brien and the job he’s done as well as to the kids who have played their tails off for him since he took over in Happy Valley. It had to be an almost impossible situation to step into yet he’s handled it with class. His team shocked the world last year and was one of the most profitable spread teams in the country. This year, despite the fact they wouldn’t be able to sneak up on anyone and despite the fact they’ve played with a freshman QB, they continue to have success. One week after the lowest point of the season – coming off a blowout loss at Indiana – the Nittany Lions came up with a monster effort and win against Michigan.
The patented PSU defense is no longer showing up on the field as it does on the stat sheet. Yes, this team ranks 17th nationally in total defense but watching the product on the field against competent opponents you can see just how deceptive their season to date numbers really are. That’s thanks in large part to facing a dreadful Syracuse offense in Week 1, a dreadful EMU offense in week two, and a Kent State offense without Dri Archer in Week 4. Against the decent teams they’ve faced this year they’ve been a hot mess; they allowed 7.8 yards per play and over 500 yards to UCF giving up 34 points in the process. They allowed 44 points to Indiana as the Hoosiers racked up over 480 yards. And last week against Michigan they again allowed 40 points. That is going to spell trouble this weekend.
Ohio State is in the second year of the Urban Meyer era and has yet to lose a game since he came aboard. The Buckeyes look much more efficient in Meyer’s offense this year and have scored no fewer than 31 points in 2013. In his third game back from injury last week Braxton Miller had perhaps his most complete performance of the season. He was nearly flawless in the passing department completing 22 of his 27 throws for over 220 yards and a couple of touchdowns without an interception. He also rushed for over 100 yards. He’s looking infinitely more comfortable in the pocket and going through his reads. It’s no longer drop back and run with him and that has really opened up the offense in my view. Deep threat Devin Smith can take the top off a defense in a hurry while Philly Brown serves as a solid possession man still capable of the big play. But this team is still going to run the ball and they’re going to run it well. A solid stable of running backs includes big Carlos Hyde who has rushed for over 300 yards the past two weeks while adding five touchdowns.
My raw numbers suggest this game should see about 55 total points scored but those numbers are not adjusted for just how bad PSU’s defense has been against BCS level talent. I suspect Ohio State could easily get more than 40 points in this game and if Christian Hackenberg can wing it like he did against UM against this suspect OSU secondary then this game could really fly over the total.
College Football Betting Preview: Stanford at Oregon State
By Ian Cameron
Sportsmemo.com
Stanford at Oregon State
Saturday, 7:30 pm PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener: Stanford -6.5 O/U 55.5
CRIS Current: Stanford -4 O/U 56
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Stanford -5
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: Oregon State
I’ve been able to cash in back-to-back weeks using Oregon State as part of my client card and although this is a major step up in class for the Beavers, I’m still inclined to look toward them as a home underdog.
Stanford has been excellent at shutting down the run ranking 18th in the nation but its pass defense hasn’t been quite as stout and throwing the football is pretty much what makes up the entire Oregon State offense. Stanford is allowing 247.1 passing yards per game which ranks 87th nationally. Quarterback Sean Mannion has had a stellar season as the nation’s leader in a number of passing categories, including yards (2,992) and touchdown passes (29). Oregon State is still relatively fresh just three weeks removed from its bye and it came at a great time. They returned running back Storm Woods and three offensive line starters. Since then, they demolished Washington State and California by a combined score of 101-41. Stanford’s defense will be facing the most potent passing attack they’ve seen this season and I think the Beavers can put up their share of points.
Oregon State has been very good in the underdog role going 5-2 ATS since the start of last season – all five ATS wins also resulted in SU victories. It’s certainly worth noting Stanford has a bye after this game followed by their mammoth PAC-12 showdown against Oregon. The bye may alleviate some of the distractions for the Cardinal but it may not completely eliminate the look-ahead factor for that enormous game. Oregon State lost 27-23 on the road in Palo Alto last season as the Cardinal needed to rally from a 9-point deficit to win. Note that Cody Vaz, not Sean Mannion, was under center for the Beavers in that contest. There is no denying that Stanford has the edge in the trenches on both sides of the football but Oregon State’s passing game, particularly at home, should be the equalizer. I’ll side with the home underdog here to keep this game tight and quite possibly hand Stanford its second consecutive road loss in PAC-12 play.
Big Ten Report - Week 9
By ASAWins.com
Week 8 of the Big Ten card saw the underdogs cash in three of five games, including an outright victory by Minnesota (+12 ½) at Northwestern. Home teams went 3-2 with all three of the home winners grabbing double-digit victories, although Ohio State and Michigan State didn't cash as heavy 'chalk.' Bettors watched the 'over' go 3-2.
Ohio State (-14½, 56½) vs. Penn State
It was a tale of two halves for Ohio State on Saturday against Iowa. The Buckeyes trailed by seven at halftime but scored touchdowns on their first three second half drives and outscored the Hawks 24-7 in the final two quarters. OSU held Iowa to just 143 yards on 18 plays in the 2nd half – 75 yards came on one TD pass – while the Buckeyes gained 316 on 54 plays. QB Braxton Miller (222 pass yards, 2 TDs, 102 rush yards) and RB Carlos Hyde (149 rush yards, 2 TDs) led this Buckeyes offense and the defense overcame an ejection of their best pass-defender – CB Bradley Roby. Even with Roby, OSU’s pass defense has been average at best this season, but again the Bucks allowed 245 pass yards and 3 pass TD against a mediocre Iowa pass offense. OSU will again face another test this weekend against freshman star QB Christian Hackenberg of Penn State. PSU had a much-needed bye week after an emotionally draining four overtime win over Michigan in its last game. Hackenberg (11 TD & 6 INT) is far beyond his years as a starting QB and the two-headed rushing attack of Zwinack (393 yards, 8 TD) & Belton (369 yards, 3 TD) will need to have a big day against this OSU defense that ranks 15th in total defense. PSU’s defense has has allowed over 40 points against Indiana & Michigan in its last two outings, but still ranks 17th in total defense. Penn State has no bowl aspirations to live up to but coach O’Brien has shown that he has no difficulty motivating his team to play spoiler. PSU is 0-4 SU & ATS in its last four as a 14+ point underdog. Penn State is 2-5 SU & ATS in its last seven games against Ohio State, but both of those wins and covers came in two of its last three trips to Ohio Stadium.
Nebraska (-10½, 52) at Minnesota
Nebraska enjoyed a bye week after handing its business against Purdue for the third consecutive game won in blowout fashion. Backup quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. threw three interceptions and completed only six passes, thus resolving the “quarterback controversy” between him and the previously injured Taylor Martinez. Martinez should make his return from turf toe this weekend and he’ll need quality reps before the Huskers begin a daunting November slate (Northwestern, atMichigan, Michigan State, atPenn State). Nebraska will be playing its first game without star guard Spencer Long which might affect the Huskers’ rushing effort (10th nationally in rush YPG). Yards won’t come easy for RB Abdullah (816 RY) against this Gopher defense that ranks 25th against the run. Minnesota is off of its most notable win of 2013 with a 20-17 upset at Northwestern. Minny held Northwestern to just 94 rush yards on 3.6 YPC and forced three NU turnovers. The Gophers were still outgained and didn’t do anything special on offense. QB Nelson relieved QB Leidner and completed 8-of-11 passes with 1 TD and no INT. Nelson will likely get the start Saturday against Nebraska but we expect to see both him and Leidner share snaps. Nebraska has won and covered both of its meetings with Minnesota as a B1G member by an average score of 40-14. Nebraska is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games as a road favorite of 10 points or more. Contrarily, the Gophers are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 as a home underdog of 10 points or more.
Michigan State (-10½, 50) at Illinois
Last week we noted how Michigan State’s offense had finally turned a corner and become respectable again. We ate those words after watching MSU against Purdue last weekend. The Spartans mustered just 294 yards and one offensive touchdown against a Purdue defense that had allowed 41+ points over its last three games. MSU’s lone touchdown came late in the 4th quarter on a trick play. QB Cook completed just 13-of-25 passes for 107 yards with no scores. It wasn’t a surprise to see Michigan State’s defense pitch a shutout of Purdue’s offense. Sparty’s defense has been dominant all season long and it allowed just 226 yards and 14 first downs on Saturday. MSU ranks 1st nationally against the run, 4th against the pass, 1st in overall defense, and 4th in scoring defense. Still, this defense can only carry the Spartans so far, and they’ll need to be sharper on offense as the schedule gets tougher – starting this week with a road game against Illinois. Illinois stumbled out of the gate against Wisconsin last week, falling behind 21-0 just 10 minutes into the game. The Illini got back into the game with a 17-point 2nd quarter and took an 11-point deficit into halftime. The defense couldn’t slow the Badgers’ rushing attack in the 2nd half, though, as UW racked up 28 2nd half points and 289 rush yards overall. Quarterback play wasn't the issue, as Nathan Scheelhaase and Reilly O'Toole combined to complete 25 of 32 passes for 318 yards, but two fumbles led to Wisconsin touchdowns and Illinois' couldn’t run the ball with much success (72 yards on 2 ½ YPC). These two haven’t met since 2010, but MSU is 8-1 SU & ATS in the past nine meetings. Michigan State is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine road games while Illinois is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 home games as an underdog of 10 points or more.
Iowa (-3½, 53) vs. Northwestern
Iowa had an excellent game plan for Ohio State coming off the open week. The Hawkeyes racked up 17 first-half points against Ohio State and controlled the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, everything came unraveled in the 2nd half. Iowa was outscored 24-7 in the 2nd half as OSU scored on four straight 2nd half possessions. Iowa had a difficult time stopping the run, which was a strength through the first half of the season. OSU racked up 273 rush yards (5.4 YPC) and scored the first two rushing touchdowns of 2013 against this Iowa defense.The Hawkeyes came up short but proved that they could certainly make some noise down the stretch in the wide-open Legends Division. They’ll face another test this week against a desperate Northwestern squad coming off of three straight defeats. The Wildcats’ offense mustered just 328 yards against Minnesota last week. QB Siemian completed just 25-of-46 passes for 234 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT (one which Minnesota returned for a touchdown).Northwestern clearly missed QB Colter and RB Mark, both of whom were out with an injury. Colter is questionable for Saturday’s contest while Mark has already been ruled out. Northwestern is 6-2 SU & ATS in the last eight meetings with Iowa, including last year’s 28-17 win. The Wildcats are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 games as a road underdog.
Wisconsin - BYE
Wisconsin will have its 2nd bye week of the month after back-to-back crushing victories over Northwestern and Illinois. Last week at Illinois, the Badgers jumped out to a 21-0 lead just 10 minutes into the game. The Illini cut the deficit to 11 points at halftime, but UW scored 28 2nd half points to put the game out of reach. The Badgers tallied 478 yards and 25 first downs while only seeing 8 third down opportunities. RB’s Gordon & White combined for 240 rush yards (6 ½ YPC) and six total touchdowns. The most promising performance was an efficient game by QB Stave. Stave completed 16-of-21 passes for 189 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT. Star LB Borland didn’t play in the 2nd half because of an injury and the defense was noticeably worse without the senior leader. He’ll try to get healthy during the off week as the Badgers prepare for a road trip to Iowa.
Michigan - BYE
The Wolverines’ offense was utterly unstoppable against Indiana last week. The Wolverines totaled 751 total yards of offense and 35 first downs. QB Gardner threw for 503 yards and rushed for 81 more and accounted for five total touchdowns. WR Gallon set a school record with 369 receiving yards and RB Toussaint had 151 rush yards and four scores. Michigan needed every single one of those yards as Indiana wasn’t rolling over in defeat. The Wolves defense allowed 572 yards and 28 first downs and Indiana trailed by just two points with 6:00 remaining. The defense has now allowed 45 ½ PPG over the last two weeks and it’ll need to be addressed over the bye week. Next up is a road trip to in-state rival Michigan State.
Indiana - BYE
Indiana’s offense is pretty close to unstoppable, but the Hoosiers won’t win many games as long as the defense continues to play like it is. IU ranks 9th in total offense and 11th in points per game. QB’s Sudfeld & Roberson have combined for 22 TD passes and RB Coleman has 9 rush TD. They’ve scored 35+ points in five of seven games this season. Defensively the Hoosiers rank at or near the bottom in every major statistical category. They allowed 751 yards and 63 points to Michigan last week. Fixing the issues on the defensive side of the ball will be priorities 1, 2, and 3 during the bye week. A home game against Minnesota is up next.
Purdue - BYE
Purdue’s defense showed up for the first time this season against Michigan State last week. This Boiler stop unit was allowing 37.8 PPG heading into last week’s game but held the Spartans to just one offensive touchdown (MSU scored a defensive touchdown to push their total to 14). The offense had several chances but couldn't finish drives in Spartans territory. Purdue needs to clean up its pass protection after allowing five sacks as young QB Etling barely had time to throw the ball. The Boilers didn’t get a lot going against MSU’s top-ranked defense, gaining just 226 total yards. The Boilers have a week off before hosting Ohio State next Saturday.
College Football Betting Preview: Vanderbilt at Texas A&M
By Alatex Sports
Sportsmemo.com
Vanderbilt at Texas A&M
Saturday, 9:20 am PT - ESPN Game Plan
CRIS Opener: Texas A&M -18.5 O/U 70
CRIS Current: Texas A&M -17 O/U 68.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Texas A&M -14
Brent Crow's Recommendation: Texas A&M
This game features two teams that come in off of surprising results last weekend that also saw both of them suffer injuries to their starting quarterbacks. Vanderbilt pulled an upset at home against Georgia, 31-27, while Texas A&M was on the other end of an upset, losing 45-41 to Auburn in College Station.
Vandy quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels left the Georgia game with a left leg injury and was replaced by Patton Robinette in the third quarter of the win. Robinette went 9-of-15 for 41 yards and ran for a touchdown and has been named the starter this week.
Johnny Manziel also got hurt against Auburn, missing just one series before returning to complete 9 of his last 10 passes, but he could not prevent the Aggies from falling. Head coach Kevin Sumlin was very quiet about Manziel’s status early this week, saying that he was hopeful that he will play. However, later reports suggest that he will be able to start and play this week. It does appear that Manziel will be fine and close to 100% for the Commodores.
These teams have some other similarities aside from ailing quarterbacks: They are both terrible on defense. The most surprising thing about the Vanderbilt win last week was not the fact that they won but the fact that they held Georgia to 221 total yards and forced three turnovers. Of course Georgia played without its top two running backs and top four receivers, but they had been able to get by without them until last week. Previously, Vandy had allowed at least 489 yards of offense and 35, 39, and 51 points in its conference games against South Carolina, Ole Miss and Missouri. I do not see them stopping an A&M offense that has scored at least 41 points in every game and has topped 500 yards of offense in six of its seven contests, with 486 yards in the game it failed to break 500.
Texas A&M has numbers that are just about as bad on that side of the ball. They have allowed at least 434 yards in all six games against FBS competition and at least 33 points in its four SEC games.
This week, the A&M offense will again have its way with the Vanderbilt defense. Manziel getting reinjured would likely be the only way that they don’t score 50+ points, especially with them focused off the loss to Auburn.
Normally, there is no way I would lay 17 points with the bad A&M defense, but with Vandy coming off the huge win and playing on the road with an inexperienced quarterback, this might be the time to do so. Robinette is not the passer that Carta-Samuels is, and the Vandy running game is nothing like the Auburn ground game that destroyed A&M last week. If A&M scores early and often as expected, the pressure will be on Vandy to match them touchdown for touchdown and a couple of empty drives will result in a 14 or 21 point deficit in a hurry. I don’t like the idea of Vandy trying to play catch up on the road with this quarterback, and while they might score 20-28 here eventually, that will not be enough against Manziel and his offense.
Shaker's Shorts
By Greg Shaker
Kentucky/Miss State: The Bulldogs really need to win this one as they have road trips to Texas A&M and South Carolina coming up and a matchup with Ole Miss as well. They have had a week and a half to prepare following their not so impressive win over Bowling Green. Ky also is off the bye week. The Bullies still shuffling starting QB's in and out but they should have some success in this one and with one of the better D's in the SEC and the Wildcats coming it at #13 in SEC offense, it should be a game wrapped in Maroon and White. Laying 10 points? I dunno..
Vandy/Texas A&M: It's probably not a good week to bet the Commodores off their win verses Georgia and the Aggies losing to Auburn. Vandy has not faired so well when they travel and they still do have some QB issues to work out. However, Texas A&M is just pitiful on D and this one is likely to be a shootout. Pending a look at the weather we might very well have some value to the OVER which to my surprise is below the 70 mark....for now..
Tennessee/Alabama: Tennessee looked pretty spiffy last week playing the Gamecocks but that was at home and this is not. Alabama is Alabama and the Vols QB ain't seen pressure like he will this Saturday. This sure is a lot of points to give any SEC school but the bottom line is, the number is about right. Depth issues likely to rear it's ugly head Saturday and I am not sure if Alabama will ever give up another TD this year. OK maybe, but maybe not for one more week. I really want to play the Vols but likely I will not..
Furman/LSU: Woe to be Furman following the Corndog's loss at Ole Miss. This is a name your score game in Baton Rouge and with the Tigers having an off week following this one, it would not surprise me to see them Name it in a Big Way. Laying 47? Not for me..
South Carolina/Mizzou: It's the Battle of Backup QB's for this game in Columbia and Advantage Tigers IMO. Thompson is not the run threat that Conner was is/was and the Tigers front line has put a lot of pressure on Signal Callers this year. Possible letdown for the home team after some big wins? Not likely I think but I do think Spurrier may have some things up his sleeves for this one. He always does for these Big Games. I'm leaning Tigers but only about as much as that Building in Pisa..
Florida Atlantic/Auburn: As amazing as it seems the Auburn Tigers can win the SEC West if they continue to win games. Of course that's not so easy the rest of the way as they have some Big Dogs to tackle yet. This dog ain't big though and it's not as SEC team so one might expect them to have a bit of a letdown Saturday. Lately the War Eagles have put some pressure on the QB but they still have issues in the secondary and are DEAD LAST in the SEC defending balls in the air. I am a bit stumped here due to that and the best advice I can give on this one is no advice..
Idaho/Ole Miss: Idaho has the 2nd worst defense in the nation and that's not going to play well Saturday in Oxford. The Rebels are the walking wounded on defense and so much so that Coach Freese said that at times during the LSU game he didn't know the names of some of the players on the field. Most likely everyone that needs a week off will get one Saturday but the Rebels will score against this team. At 58.5 I am looking strongly at OVER because somehow, some way, the Vandals are likely to put some points on the board..
Saturday CFB Thoughts
By Dave Essler
G-Tech at UVA: Clearly G-Tech will be the very public side after pasting Syracuse, and Virginia losing at home to Duke after having a HT lead is going to only magnify this line. They hammered UVA in Atlanta last year, but lost SU in UVA the year before. Not sure the value here isn't in the total, and lean under since Tech's defense has been playing well, UVA's season is essentially done, and they couldn't score when it wasn't done.
UConn-UCF: Again, inflated number to cover with the Knights after the public beating they gave an over rated L'ville team and UConn being 0-6. UCF extra time to prepare and UCF has a bigger game against Houston next week, so if the number is high enough, I could see taking UConn and their reasonable defense, or at least the under.
Ball State-Akron: Ball State remains undefeated in MAC play, and at some point has to be looking towards their showdown with Northern Illinois. Akron did win on the road (yes, it was against a bad team) and played Northern Illinois pretty tough on the road last week. This one could well have public disaster because, well, Ball State's defense just isn't one I wanted to lay big points with two weeks in a row on the road.
Miami (OH)-Ohio: Miami can't score and can't stop many people from scoring, and are of course winless. It'd certainly be tough to back them on the road with Ohio finally getting things together, but Ohio does have a big date w.Buffalo next week, and DID lost to Central Michigan, so if Ohio's focused they run away, if they're looking at the next two game (Bowling Green in two weeks) it could be closer than expected.
Buffalo-Kent: Kent has seemingly zero defense, but you guys know I'll almost always try to find a way to take points, one way or another. Buffalo's stock is super-high right now, but they really haven't played a quality opponent since giving up the obligatory 70 points to Baylor and then beating Stony Brook (the football team) in overtime. There's a big part of me that says this could be another public disaster, obviously depending on how many points they want to give a team that's played at LSU and at Penn State.
Western Michigan-UMass: OK, Western Michigan is winless and UMass, on paper, isn't much better, but they should be favored here and I like them to get win number two here. They've played a tougher (much) schedule and appear to be improving week-to-week, and the Buffalo loss just really gives this one a little more value, IMO. If it weren't a team like UMass, capable of almost anything, I'd bet the farm on the Minutemen.
Houston-Rutgers: First thing that comes to mind is that last time the Cougars were up this way when they beat Temple, and covered on a pick late. They could/should have lost that game. And Houston will be the public side because their only loss was to BYU and could have gone either way, so no discounting them here. In fact, it may inflate their value since it was BYU. Rutgers has has over two weeks to prepare for this game, and has really done what they're supposed to in every game this year. Rutgers could win this game, IMO.
Boston College-UNC: Again, the Tar Heels will be the public side, but they MAY be the right side. The Miami loss actually gave them back some cred, and they played V-Tech and G-Tech pretty tough in losses. They've got to win fove of the last six to get to a Bowl game after having such high expectations early, but I can see that, given the schedule and their starting to play better. Perhaps a victim of a tough early schedule. But, BC has had two weeks to prepare, played Clemson tough (I know the situation) and actually played FSU fairly tough. So, this one is totally dependant on the number for me.
Clemson-Maryland: Certainly have to wonder where Clemsons' head will be at, but they'll still be prohibitive favorites, as people will expect them to take it out on the Terps, who were hammered at Wake. One thing in Maryland's favor is that prior to the Wake game they'd at least beaten the teams they were supposed to. Probably inclined to simply take the over, but it will be a big number and probably only get bigger if the weather looks decent.
Duke-V-Tech: The Hokies defense is back, quietly, to where it was and where people have come to expect it to be. However, I do really have a hard time getting behind Logan Thomas. V-Tech has three of the last four games on the road, and plays at Miami, so they do have the ACC Coastal in their own hands. However, I have to wonder if their stock isn't too high right now. Duke CAN put points on the board, but really can't stop a good team. With that in mind I'd expect V-Tech to play ball control and not get into a shootout here, so perhaps the under with what's probably a bigger than it should be total.
Pittsburgh-Navy: This is only Navy's third game in Annapolis, and the first two were wins over bad teams. Pitt obviously struggled against ODU and has G-Tech in Atlanta next week, so as far as the situation goes, this might be Navy's game to lose. Only Pitt's third road game, and although the played V-Tech pretty tough, they may have peaked right about then. I like betting service academies because you get 110% effort, so I lean Navy.
UAB-UTSA: Neither team may stop scoring, or neither team may be able to stop the other is perhaps the better way to look at it. Both teams have played great schedules against non-conference teams and on the road more often than not. Just no real opinion on this game.
Temple-SMU: Southern Methodist hasn't beaten a good team yet, and every time I think they're going to get it together, Gilbert simply sucks. So, the more consistent team that I'd want my money on would be Temple. Although they just got their first win, they've play the much tougher schedule.
Eastern Michigan-Northern Illinois: Obviously Northern Illinois is chalk again, and undefeated, but ATS they are just pushing the envelope every week, except against Purdue. Eastern Michigan has the worst defense in the nation, and against a pretty pathetic schedule, so NI could well get healthy here. Square to be thinking about an over in this game, but EMU will occasionally put points on the board and NI's defense has let up more than they typically do. Perhaps they miss Doeren more than many think.
Arizona-Colorado: Wildcats have pretty much done what they were supposed to in most games this season, losing at Washington and at SoCal, with the lone road win coming at UNLV. Colorado's defense has some pretty bad numbers, but a quick look at who they've allowed all those yards/points to might make one pause before making the auto-bet on Arizona here. I do like Colorado at home in the thin air, more often than not, and if they have any hope of perhaps making a Bowl game (who knew?) they need to win THIS game.
Vanderbilt-Texas A & M: Welp, it appears the Aggies finally are who we thought they were, and Vanderbilt is as well. Given what A & M typically does (or doesn't do) on both sides of the ball, this total might be pretty high. Maybe too high. If you look back at Vandy's losses, knowing what we know now, they weren't bad losses at all. And if you look at who (Arkansas, for one) the Aggies have allowed points to, it's not pretty. Might take Vanderbilt here if for no other reason than A & M has to be running out of emotion after the 'Bama hype, the Manzeil hype, and all the distractions.
Florida Atlantic-Auburn: Obviously War Eagle can name the score here. They only have the one loss at LSU, and have their final two games against UGA and Alabama at home, so they could well be looking at a decent Bowl game, so they really do have reason to make minced meat out of someone.
Tennessee-Alabama: I'd try to find a way to take the Vols, and the 'Bama defense that everyone seems to have written off, has only allowed more than ten points to one team, A & M. Big game w/LSU next, but not as big after LSU loses to Ole Miss (shit) and two weeks to get ready. That's a game I might take LSU in, seeing as how they've simply got nothing to lose now. Most definitely lean under whatever the number is here, and I probably want no part of the side, but I did just see it open at -26 so it's the Vols or nothing. A bit shocked to see it that high.
UCLA-Oregon: This will be an interesting, to say the least, total. After watching UCLA struggle against Stanford to protect Hundley, and after Oregon was so sloppy on defense, I've got to think both will be points of emphasis in practice this week. IMO Oregon makes a statement, again, here. They've got two week before they play Stanford, and UCLA was exposed by Stanford as simply not a top ten team.
Utah-SoCal: Trojans actually have a reasonable chance for a 7-8 win regular season, which is obviously below pre-season expectations, but probably above the expectations of a few weeks ago. Utes on the road appear to be a shadow of what they are at home, and they need two more wins for the magic sixth one, which may not be as easy as people think. My knee-jerk reaction is that SoCal finally plays a complete game and hammers them.
Tulsa-Tulane: I've seen to many Tulsa games to even consider backing them, let alone on the road. Green is terrible and they have no defense. Now I do know that the Green Wave is not a tsunami, either, but they have beat a couple decent teams and are at home w/two weeks to prepare, and have BEEN home all month. Haven't looked (intentionally) at the line yet, but Tulane ought to win this game by a TD, IMO.
Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Afternoon Action
By Covers.com
Louisville Cardinals at South Florida Bulls (+20, 46.5)
Cardinals QB Teddy Bridgewater has completed 68 percent of his passes during his career – 72 percent this season with 20 touchdown passes and only two interceptions. His top three targets – DeVante Parker, Damian Copeland and Eli Rogers – all have at least 26 receptions and 391 yards while combining for 14 touchdowns.
The Bulls average 258.5 total yards, which ranks 121st out of 123 FBS teams, while their defense has played well much of the season. Linebacker DeDe Lattimore boasts 56 tackles to lead South Florida, which is 22nd in the nation in passing yards against (200) and 33rd in total defense (360.5).
LINE: The Cardinals opened as 20.5 road faves and are now -20. THe total opened at 46.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with clear skies.
TRENDS:
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in their last five games in October.
* Bulls are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a bye week.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones (+12.5, 56)
Cowboys QB J.W. Walsh was pulled in favor of Clint Chelf during the 24-10 win over Texas Christian and coach Mike Gundy admitted he won't reveal his starting quarterback until game time. "We won't publicly name one," Gundy said. "We'll let those guys practice and then we'll see how it goes this week."
Iowa State QB Sam B. Richardson has thrown for 1,255 yards with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions this season. Linebacker Jeremiah George made a career-high 18 tackles against Baylor and ranks fifth nationally with 11.5 per game while three Iowa State players are ranked in the top seven nationally in solo tackles - Jacques Washington (third, 7.0) and George and Sam E. Richardson (tied for seventh, 6.5).
LINE: The Cowboys opened as 14-point road faves and are now -12.5. The total is currently 56.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s and wind will blow toward the S endzone at 14 mph.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Minnesota Golden Gophers (+10.5, 52)
Two open dates over the last four weeks allowed No. 21 Nebraska to get its feet wet in Big Ten Conference play. The inactivity may also have bought the Cornhuskers enough time to get quarterback Taylor Martinez back from injury as they head to Minnesota on Saturday to face the Golden Gophers. Martinez, who has been dealing with turf toe since Nebraska lost to UCLA on Sept. 14, has sat out the last three games as Tommy Armstrong Jr. and Ron Kellogg III have directed the team to three straight victories.
While the Cornhuskers boast the country’s 10th-ranked rushing attack (284.8 yards per game), the Golden Gophers are 28th in rushing offense (210.1) with four players (David Cobb, Mitch Leidner, Philip Nelson and Rodrick Williams) tallying at least one 100-yard game this year – the first time Minnesota has achieved that feat since 1967. However, Tracy Claeys revealed that Leidner – the team’s starting quarterback the past two games – is battling an illness. As a result, it is unclear if Leidner or Nelson, who came on in relief last week, will draw the start against Nebraska.
LINE: The Huskers opened as 10.5-point road faves. The total opened at 52.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-40s and wind will blow across the field at 14 mph.
TRENDS:
* Cornhuskers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Golden Gophers are 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games.
* Under is 10-4 in Golden Gophers last 14 home games.
Connecticut Huskies at Central Florida Knights (-23, 52.5)
Connecticut has been unable to find any kind of rhythm offensively. After head coach Paul Pasqualoni was fired on Sept. 30, interim coach T.J. Weist plugged in freshman quarterback Tim Boyle. In two games, he's led the Huskies to just 26 points - including a 41-16 loss to Cincinnati last week.
The Knights, ranked in the Top 25 for the first time since 2010, are led by efficient quarterback Blake Bortles. His 64.9 percent completion rate and 11-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio are large reasons why Central Florida ranks 46th in the nation in passing offense.
LINE: The Knights opened as 22.5-point home faves and are now -23. The total opened at 52.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with wind blowing toward the S endzone at 7 mph.
TRENDS:
* Huskies are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Knights are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Under is 11-5 in Knights last 16 home games.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Miami Hurricanes (-24.5, 54)
The Demon Deacons seek a third straight win after knocking off North Carolina State and Maryland in consecutive weeks following a 2-3 start. Against the Hurricanes, Wake Forest hopes to improve its presence on the road, where it has disappointed this season.
hings definitely are looking up from all angles for the Hurricanes, who have not been ranked this high since November 13, 2005. Quarterback Stephen Morris has Miami poised for the big play at all times, ranking fifth in the nation with an average of 16.52 yards per completion. Duke Johnson averages a conference-best 7.1 yards per carry, and his 109.2 yards per game trail only Boston College's Andre Williams among ACC rushers.
LINE: Miami opened as a 21-point fave and is now -24.5. The total is currently 54.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with wind blowing across the field at 13 mph.
TRENDS:
* Demon Deacons are 2-14 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Hurricanes are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games.
* Under is 19-7 in Demon Deacons last 26 games overall.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Texas A&M Aggies (-17.5, 69)
The Commodores have yet to announce whether quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels, who left Vanderbilt's upset of Georgia in the second quarter with a leg injury, or redshirt freshman Patton Robinette will get the start.
Johnny Manziel is second nationally in total offense (396.4 yards per game) and the Aggies are ranked fifth in the country in passing yards (377.1), third in total offense (588.7) and fourth in scoring (46.9 points). The Texas A&M defense is on the other end of the national rankings, allowing 494.4 yards (ranked 118th out of 123 FBS teams), 226.6 rushing yards (112th) and 33.9 points (104th).
LINE: The Aggies opened -18 and are now -17.5. The total opened 68.5 and is up to 69.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with a 20 percent chance of rain.
TRENDS:
* Commodores are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
* Over is 6-1 in Aggies last seven games overall.
* Aggies are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games in October.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Northern Illinois Huskies (-31, 66.5)
Eastern Michigan takes the field for its second game since wide receiver Demarius Reed was found shot to death in an off-campus apartment Oct. 18. The Eagles honored Reed by wearing his No. 2 on their helmets in last week’s 56-28 loss to Ohio.
he Huskies rank fourth nationally in rushing, with Jordan Lynch and Cameron Stingily leading the way for an offense averaging 304.7 yards on the ground. Northern Illinois has scored 30 or more points in six of seven games, and its season low in points is 27.
LINE: The Huskies opened -30 and are now -31. The total is currently 66.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with wind blowing across the field at 14 mph.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.
* Road team is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
Clemson Tigers at Maryland Terrapins (+14.5, 60)
Clemson is coming off a humiliating loss against Florida State, but Maryland knows exactly what that feels like. The 10th-ranked Tigers aim to bounce back from their lopsided top-five showdown on Saturday when they visit the Terrapins in ACC action. All eyes will be on Tajh Boyd and Clemson, which was demolished by the Seminoles, 51-14, last weekend in a game that could have potentially propelled the Tigers to the forefront of the national title picture.
The Terps lost two receivers, Stefon Diggs and Deon Long, to broken legs against Wake Forest. That was the last thing Maryland needed, as its passing game - and its offense in general - is struggling, managing a total of 37 points over the last three games.
LINE: The Tigers opened -13 and are now -14.5. The total opened at 60.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with wind blowing across the field at 12 mph.
TRENDS:
* Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Terrapins are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games following a S.U. loss.
North Carolina State Wolfpack at Florida State Seminoles (-32, 58)
The Wolfpack had an extra week to prepare a stout defensive unit that has been holding opponents to 21.2 points per game, and knowing they have beaten Florida State twice in the past three meetings gives them confidence.
No. 3 Florida State is second in the initial BCS rankings and coming off a dominant victory at Clemson, but the Seminoles know they have a lot of work left to do if they want to play for the national championship. The Seminoles, tops in the nation with only four turnovers, boast the No. 3 scoring offense in the FBS (53.2 points per game) and have scored at least 41 in every game.
LINE: The Seminoles opened as 28.5-point home faves and are now -32. The total opened at 58.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with sunny skies.
TRENDS:
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Wolfpack are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
* Over is 6-0 in Seminoles last six games overall.
Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Tech Hokies (-13.5, 47.5)
Duke arrives in Blacksburg with plenty of momentum, winners of three straight including last week's comeback victory at Virginia that featured 35 unanswered points to overcome a 22-0 deficit. Quarterback Anthony Boone moved to 5-0 as a starter with the win over the Cavaliers but fellow signal caller Brandon Connette had a major hand in the decision as well. The junior became the first quarterback in school history with two game-winning, fourth quarter touchdown passes.
Riding a six-game win streak and fresh off a bye week, Virginia Tech looks to stay unbeaten in conference play. The 19th-ranked Hokies appear to be in good position for a run at the ACC championship game, atop the Coastal Division alongside unbeaten Miami, with a November 9th showdown against the Hurricanes drawing ever closer. Against the Blue Devils, Virginia Tech may get a lift with the season debut of cornerback Antone Exum, who missed the first seven games following offseason knee surgery.
LINE: Tech opened as a 13.5-point home fave. The total opened at 47.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with clear skies.
TRENDS:
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Under is 7-1-1 in Hokies last nine games overall.
* Blue Devils are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games in October.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma Sooners (-7, 59)
Texas Tech worked its way to the top of the Big 12 under first-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury on the back of a strong passing attack. The ninth-ranked Red Raiders get their biggest test yet when they visit No. 12 Oklahoma on Saturday. Texas Tech is averaging 416.4 passing yards but has yet to face a defense like the Sooners, who are surrendering the fewest yards in the Big 12.
The Sooners roll the opposite way, leaning on the running game for an average of 227.9 yards while quarterback Blake Bell provides a dual threat under center. Oklahoma has allowed only two teams to go over 200 yards passing, led by Tulsa’s 226-yard effort on Sept. 14.
LINE: The Sooners opened -8 and are now -7. The total is currently 59.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for a 49 percent chance of thunderstorms.
TRENDS:
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last four conference games.
* Over is 9-2 in Red Raiders last 11 games overall.
Tennessee Volunteers at Alabama Crimson Tide (-28, 51.5)
Tennessee is re-energized under first-year coach Butch Jones and filled with confidence after upsetting South Carolina 23-21 last Saturday. The Volunteers have forced 17 turnovers (12 interceptions, five fumbles) with junior linebacker A.J. Johnson (55 tackles), sophomore strong safety Brian Randolph (46 tackles, three interceptions) and senior defensive end Marlon Walls (4.5 sacks) all enjoying solid campaigns.
Top-ranked Alabama is rolling toward its third consecutive BCS title game appearance and the host Crimson Tide attempt to win their 12th consecutive game and avoid the upset bid of improving Tennessee on Saturday. Alabama sits atop the first BCS standings and is looking for its seventh consecutive victory over the Volunteers.
LINE: The Tide opened as 28-point home faves. The total opened at 51.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with sunny skies.
TRENDS:
* Road team is 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 meetings.
* Volunteers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 7-2-1 in Crimson Tide last 10 home games.
Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Evening Action
By Covers.com
UCLA Bruins at Oregon Ducks (-23.5, 71.5)
Bruins' sophomore quarterback Brett Hundley (13 touchdowns, six interceptions) had his poorest effort of the season against Stanford, passing for a season-low 192 yards and being intercepted twice. The Bruins were unable to run effectively without leading rusher Jordon James (463 yards), who remains questionable with an ankle injury.
Ducks QB Marcus Mariota has gone 265 attempts without throwing an interception to set a Pac-12 record and senior Josh Huff (627 receiving yards) and sophomore Bralon Addison (543) share the team lead with 32 receptions. Sophomore Byron Marshall (team-best 746 rushing yards) has stepped up in the absence of De'Anthony Thomas and recorded four consecutive 100-yard outings.
LINE: The Ducks opened as 21.5-point faves and are now -23.5. The total opened at 70 and is up to 71.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies.
TRENDS:
* Over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings in Oregon.
* Road team is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Ducks are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
Baylor Bears at Kansas Jayhawks (+34.5, 66)
Fifth-ranked Baylor could easily look past what is expected to be another blowout victory when it travels to Kansas on Saturday, but quarterback Bryce Petty has other ideas. "It's just about a one game at a time kind of mentality,'' Petty said. "To us it doesn't matter where we play or who we play or when we play. It's always about Baylor."
The Jayhawks decided to burn the redshirt of freshman quarterback Montell Cozart during last week's 34-19 loss to Oklahoma as the 6-2, 180-pound star recruit rushed for eight yards on three carries in two series of action. Cozart will likely see more time against Baylor as Weis - who won three Super Bowls as New England Patriots offensive coordinator - tries to resurrect a unit that is averaging a Big 12-worst 18.3 points and ranked 112th among the 123 FBS teams in the nation.
LINE: The Jayhawks opened as 35.5-point home dogs and are now +34.5. The total opened at 66.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with wind blowing toward the S endzone at 6 mph.
TRENDS:
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in Jayhawks last five home games.
* Bears are 17-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Missouri Tigers (-2.5, 53.5)
The Gamecocks began the season ranked seventh but have underperformed and are in danger of falling out of the Top 25 if they can't right the ship this week. Backup quarterback Dylan Thompson will get the start in place of Connor Shaw (knee), meaning they're likely to lean on running back Mike Davis, who has recorded six 100-yard rushing games.
The Tigers' first season in the SEC was derailed by injuries, but Missouri didn't miss a beat with redshirt freshman Maty Mauk under center in last week's 36-17 win over Florida. Mauk stepped in for injured senior James Franklin and passed for 295 yards and a touchdown while adding a rushing score to earn SEC Freshman of the Week honors.
LINE: Missouri opened -3 and is now -2.5. The total opened at 52 and is now 53.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with clear skies.
TRENDS:
* Gamecocks are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
* Over is 8-1 in Gamecocks last nine conference games.
* Tigers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
Furman Paladins at LSU Tigers (-45.5)
The Paladins notched a 27-10 victory over Appalachian State last week thanks to a 98-yard interception return for a touchdown by Gary Wilkins – one of five turnovers forced by the Furman defense. Reese Hannon was efficient for the Paladins, completing 13-of-19 passes for 164 yards and a touchdown, while Hank McCloud contributed 89 yards on 13 rushing attempts.
The Tigers have one of the nation’s top wideout duos, with Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry combining for 95 catches, 1,600 yards and 14 receiving touchdowns through eight games. The Tigers’ air attack has somewhat overshadowed sophomore running back Jeremy Hill, who has rushed for at least 100 yards in four of his last six games, although his 4.0 yards per carry against Ole Miss was his worst mark of the season.
LINE: The Tigers opened as 45.5-point home faves.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s.
TRENDS:
* Paladins are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Paladins are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games.
* Tigers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following a ATS loss.
Florida Atlantic Owls at Auburn Tigers (-23.5, 51)
Owls coach Carl Pelini was worried about his team keeping fresh during the bye week, so he made sure to have a full-speed scrimmage at a practice. “The most important thing we get out of these days is full-speed work,” Pelini told the Palm Beach Post. “You don't want to go two weeks between playing full speed.”
After last week's win over Texas A&M put Auburn in control of its own destiny in the SEC West, many see the Tigers as potential national-championship contenders. But Auburn coach Gus Malzahn has his team focused on what's ahead, as in this week's game, rather than the big picture. “The only thing we talked about is this week and Florida Atlantic,” Malzahn said at his weekly news conference. “We're not talking about anything else or thinking about anything else. We're going to keep the same approach.”
LINE: The Tigers opened as 25.5-point faves and are now -23.5. The total opened at 51.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with clear skies.
TRENDS:
* Owls are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Tigers last six home games.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio State Buckeyes (-14.5, 56.5)
Freshman quarterback Christian Hackenberg has taken the reins of the offense and has the Nittany Lions ranked 26th in the nation in passing (283.7 yards per game), and he'll need to be sharp against an Ohio State defense that doesn't give up much on the ground. It helps that Hackenberg has the Big Ten's top receiver in Allen Robinson, who has 43 receptions for 705 yards and five TDs.
The Buckeyes have been prone to slow starts in their three conference games but have outscored opponents 58-27 in the second half over that span. Ohio State ranks 18th in the nation in total offense (494.6 yards per game) led by quarterback Braxton Miller (831 passing yards, 8 TDs; 335 rushing yards) and has been especially strong on the ground with Carlos Hyde (443 yards, 5 TDs) and Jordan Hall (438 yards, 8 TDs) leading the way.
LINE: The Buckeyes opened as 14-point home faves and are now -14.5. The total opened at 56.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s and wind will blow across the field at 7 mph.
TRENDS:
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Ohio State.
* Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in Buckeyes last five games overall.
Fresno State Bulldogs at San Diego State Aztecs (+7.5, 62)
Bulldgos Davante Adams continues his meteoric rise as one of the nation's top wide receivers. He tied a school record with four touchdown receptions last week and remains the nation’s active career leader in receptions (8.5) and receiving yards per game (106.8). He’ll be up against a San Diego State secondary that allows an average of 280.2 passing yards a game, 15th most in the nation.
The Aztecs have been wildly inconsistent in the fourth quarter over the last month. They blew a nine-point lead with less than three minutes remaining in a loss to Oregon State on Sept. 21, outscored New Mexico State 15-0 in the final quarter of a 10-point win the following week, blew a 21-point lead against Nevada before winning in overtime and then stormed back from a 14-point deficit in their most recent game, a 27-20 victory at Air Force.
LINE: The Bulldogs opened as 8.5-point road faves and are now -7.5. The total opened at 61.5 and is up to 62.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with wind blowing toward the E endzone at 4 mph.
TRENDS:
* Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Aztecs are 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games.
* Over is 6-1 in Bulldogs last seven games following a bye week.
Stanford Cardinal at Oregon State Beavers (+3.5, 56.5)
The Cardinal have excelled under the steady guidance of quarterback Kevin Hogan (62.9 completion rate, 13 touchdowns, five interceptions), who is 11-1 as a starter. Hogan's top target is wide receiver Ty Montgomery (36 catches, 15.7 yards per reception, five TDs) and the junior is also a major threat on special teams as he has returned two kickoffs for scores.
The Beavers, who have played only one home game since Sept. 7, are tied with Missouri for the most interceptions with 14 while cornerback Steven Nelson shares the national lead with five. QB Sean Mannion, who leads the nation in touchdown passes (29) and yards (2,992), faces a defense which is tied for 22nd in the nation with 19 sacks.
LINE: The Beavers opened as 5.5-point home dogs and are now +3.5. The total opened at 55 and is up to 56.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s.
TRENDS:
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Oregon State.
* Cardinal are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Beavers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
Saturday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
UCLA BRUINS (5-1) at OREGON DUCKS (7-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Oregon -23.5 & 72
Opening Line & Total: Ducks -21.5 & 71
Two of the best quarterbacks in all of college football take the field on Saturday night as Brett Hundley leads No. 12 UCLA into Eugene to take on Marcus Mariota and No. 2 Oregon.
These two teams did not match up last season since they are in different divisions in the Pac-12, but Oregon won two seasons ago 49-31 in the Pac-12 Championship game. UCLA is coming off a tough 24-10 loss to Stanford last week, but still has plenty of talent to bounce back, led by its dynamic quarterback. Hundley struggled against the Cardinal (192 pass yards, 1 TD, 2 INT), but remains a real threat to make plays with both his arm and feet. Stanford did a great job of pressuring Hundley all game, never allowing him to get into any kind of rhythm. However, he was not helped out by the rushing attack, as the Bruins ran the ball 27 times for only 74 yards. This ground game needs to improve greatly, not only to help Hundley, but to keep the Oregon offense off the field. Marcus Mariota has been incredible for the Ducks this season. Through seven games this year, he has accounted for 28 touchdowns, (19 passing, nine rushing) while only turning the ball over one time (lost fumble). Mariota has done this despite playing an entire game only one time this season, as the Ducks are winning by an average of 40.3 PPG. Both clubs suffered their first ATS losses of the season last week, but UCLA usually thrives in high-scoring affairs, going 8-1 ATS (89%) when the total is at least 63 points in the past two seasons. However, Oregon has been very profitable against great teams, going 11-2 ATS (85%) against teams with a winning percentage of at least 75% over the past three years.
Last week was a big disappointment for the Bruins, but not all is lost. They were on the road against a very talented Stanford team that was stinging from an upset loss to Utah the week before. For UCLA, there is still plenty of talent on the team. The Bruins rank 21st in the nation in scoring offense (39.8 PPG) and 18th in points allowed (19.2 PPG). QB Brett Hundley (1,661 pass yards, 8.4 YPA, 13 TD, 6 INT) has a big-time talent at the receiver position in Shaquelle Evans (24 rec., 319 yards, 5 TD). At 6-foot-1, 211 pounds, he is very difficult to guard, as he is fast enough to run by people, but is also able to go over the middle and make the big catch. He is Hundley's security blanket on third downs, and must have a big game. Junior RB Jordon James (463 rush yards, 6.3 YPC, 5 TD) has propelled a quality ground game this year (199 YPG, 38th in FBS), and his absence over the past two weeks due to an ankle injury has really hurt, as the Burins have rushed for a meager 152 yards on 61 carries (2.5 YPC) with their top rusher out. James is considered questionable to return for this game. Last week against Stanford, the offense was only 5-of-15 on third downs, and that has to increase to help out star LB Anthony Barr (35 tackles, 4 sacks) and the rest of the UCLA defense. Barr is a superb athlete that has incredible speed for a guy his size, but if his unit has to stay on the field too long, the Ducks will get rolling.
With Chip Kelly leaving for the NFL, some wondered if Oregon's incredible success the past few seasons would leave with him. However, just the opposite has happened. The Ducks are still playing at an elite level on offense (57.6 PPG, 2nd in FBS; 576 total YPG, 3rd in nation). As excellent as this team has been through the air with QB Marcus Mariota throwing for 2,051 yards (10.4 YPA), 19 TD and 0 INT, the ground game continues to baffle opponents with 332 YPG (2nd in nation). Mariota (493 rush yards, 10.1 YPC, 9 TD) and RBs Byron Marshall (746 rush yards, 6.7 YPA, 9 TD), Thomas Tyner (360 rush yards, 6.7 YPA, 7 TD) and De'Anthony Thomas (338 rush yards, 8.0 YPA, 6 TD) are all excellent ball carriers. The Oregon defense has also been impressive this season (17.3 PPG, 12th in nation), but allowed 38 points and 557 passing yards on 89 attempts in last week's 62-38 win over Washington State. Ducks CB Terrance Mitchell (4 INT) has emerged as a star, and has helped his team force a whopping 21 turnovers in seven contests. In last week's win, Mitchell took back an interception for a 51-yard touchdown. If the defense continues to play at such a high level, then this team will be nearly impossible to beat.
SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (5-2) at MISSOURI TIGERS (7-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Missouri -3 & 54
Opening Line & Total: Tigers -3 & 53
No. 5 Missouri will look to add another signature win to its undefeated record Saturday night as they take on a No. 20 South Carolina team coming off a disappointing loss to Tennessee.
The Tigers have been the surprise of this college football season, now coming off back-to-back wins against Florida and Georgia. Missouri is not only 7-0 SU, but also 6-1 ATS with an offense averaging 44.3 PPG (8th in nation). Last week's win was important, showing they could beat the Gators even without top QB James Franklin, who's out indefinitely with an injured shoulder. The Gamecocks, despite a lot of hype entering this season, are now 5-2 SU and just 2-5 ATS. Their loss to Georgia was understandable, but last week's 23-21 defeat at the hands of the Volunteers was a real setback. In that game, starting QB Connor Shaw left with a knee injury and is doubtful for Saturday's action. That's bad news for a Gamecocks team that is just 1-3 ATS on the road in 2013. When these two teams met last year, though, Steve Spurrier's squad had no problem dispatching the Tigers, winning 31-10 and easily covering a 10-point spread. Missouri has thrived against elite competition for the past three seasons, going 6-0 ATS versus teams with a win pct. between 60% and 75%, but South Carolina has also taken down some high-quality opponents under Spurrier, going 13-5 ATS (72%) versus excellent teams (17+ PPG margin) since becoming the school's head coach.
Losing QB Connor Shaw would be a big blow for South Carolina as he has put up solid numbers this season. He has 11 TD passes and only 1 INT while completing 92-of-145 passes (63.4%) for 1,307 yards. His replacement, Dylan Thompson, is just 29-for-51 (56.9%) on passes this year with 2 TD and 2 INT. Even with a weakened pass game though, the offense has hope in star RB Mike Davis, who has already found the end zone 10 times this season while gaining 879 yards on a hefty 6.7 YPC average. He also has 201 receiving yards on 17 catches. WRs Damiere Byrd (19 rec., 384 yards, 3 TD) and Bruce Ellington (21 rec., 332 yards, 3 TD) also have big-play ability. On defense, the unit has high upside with star DE Jadeveon Clowney, and has succeeded on the ground, yielding only 4.0 YPC. Through the air though, foes are completing more than 60% of their passes for 7.0 yards per attempt and a whopping 11.6 yards per completion.
Despite missing QB James Franklin last week, Missouri didn't miss a beat with redshirt freshman Maty Mauk stepping in and completing 18-of-36 passes for 295 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. The Tigers piled up more than 500 yards in the win against a solid Gators defense. Though the offense has some health issues with RBs Russell Hansbrough (438 rush yards, 6.8 YPC, 3 TD) and Marcus Murphy (357 rush yards, 8.7 YPC, 5 TD) both questionable for action with toe and concussion ailments, respectively, they have a deep stable of backs that can contribute, such as RB Henry Josey (494 rush yards, 6.0 YPC, 8 TD). And in the air, Mauk can regularly count on guys like L'Damian Washington (32 rec., 539 yards, 7 TD) and Dorial Green-Beckham (30 rec., 451 yards, 4 TD) to make plays. Defensively, the Tigers are stingiest on the ground with 3.6 YPC allowed, and aren't terrible against the pass either, giving up 6.2 yards per attempt and 10.0 yards per completion.
TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (4-3) at ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (7-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Alabama -28 & 52.5
Opening Line & Total: Crimson Tide -28 & 52
Tennessee will look to pull off an upset for the second consecutive week as it heads to Tuscaloosa for a showdown with a heavily-favored No. 1 Alabama squad.
Despite its mediocre 4-3 SU record, Tennessee has looked quite good against SEC opponents lately with two consecutive ATS wins against ranked teams. First the Vols battled Georgia in an eventual OT loss and followed that up with an upset of South Carolina as 7.5-point underdogs. Alabama has now won 11 games in a row SU dating back to last year and is now 3-1 ATS against conference foes in 2013. Most of that is because the Crimson Tide have the nation's stingiest defense that allows a miniscule 9.7 PPG. Recently, Alabama has owned Tennessee, winning the past six games SU (5-1 ATS), with the past three wins all coming by exactly 31 points. But historically the Volunteers have actually had some success in Tuscaloosa, going 8-2 ATS against the Crimson Tide since 1992.
Tennessee's offense is nothing to rave about, though RB Rajion Neal is amid a strong season in which he is averaging 5.3 YPC on 132 carries with eight touchdowns. Over his past three contests, he's averaging 131.3 rushing yards per game. The Vols also have a good change of pace back in Marlin Lane (335 rush yards, 5.9 YPC), who has added four touchdowns on the season. QB Justin Worley runs the show, but isn't very efficient, completing only 55.8% of his passes. He's thrown for 1,119 yards with 10 touchdowns and six interceptions. He didn't throw a pick in the games against Georgia and South Carolina though, one of the big reasons for the Volunteers' impressive performances in those games. Defensively this unit leaves a lot to be desired, giving up 4.8 YPC on the ground and 7.2 yards per pass attempt through the air. The good news about the Vols' pass defense is that opponents have completed only 52.0% of their passes against them.
Though Alabama's defense is what makes the program truly elite, that is no slight to their prolific offense. QB AJ McCarron has had a phenomenal senior season, completing 69.2% of his passes for 1,587 yards (8.7 YPA). Impressively, he has 14 TD tosses and only three picks this year, and he completely destroyed Tennessee last year by completing 17-of-22 passes for 306 yards, 4 TD and 0 INT. He is an expert at distributing the ball to his backs, receivers and tight ends, with eight players already having more than 100 receiving yards this season, and nine players having caught touchdown passes. Setting up the passing game are two rushers who both have seven scores already this season in RBs T.J. Yeldon (657 yards on 6.6 YPC) and Kenyan Drake (402 yards on 8.2 YPC). Yeldon tore up Tennessee for 129 yards on 15 carries (8.6 YPC) with 2 TD in last year's romp. Opposing QBs are completing just 50.0% of their passes against the Alabama defense while gaining a poor 3.3 YPC on the ground.
STANFORD CARDINAL (6-1) at OREGON STATE BEAVERS (6-1)
Sportsbook.ag Opening Line & Total: Cardinal -6 & 57
Things do not get any easier for No. 8 Stanford as it travels to Corvallis to take on the high-powered offensive attack of Oregon State on Saturday night.
Oregon State got off to a tough start this season after being upset FCS school Eastern Washington in the opener. However, behind the play of QB Sean Mannion, the Beavers have turned it around with six straight wins (4-2 ATS) and are a legitimate threat in the Pac-12. Last season, Oregon State almost pulled off the upset in Palo Alto, until Stanford came back from a nine-point deficit late in the third quarter to win 27-23. Running back Storm Woods had 94 rushing yards on 6.3 YPC in that game, and was able to consistently get to the second level of the defense. The Beavers will need that kind of balance again as they will be playing against a very difficult defense, who got back to form against UCLA last week. The Cardinal were all over Bruins star quarterback Brett Hundley from the very beginning of the day, never allowing him to get comfortable. They also shut down the Bruins rushing attack, allowing UCLA to gain just 74 yards on 27 carries (2.7 YPC). Stanford QB Kevin Hogan was big in the game last season, overcoming early interceptions to complete 22-of-29 passes for 254 yards and three touchdowns. While he is not going to throw for all the yards Mannion does, Hogan does a great job of running the offense the way that head coach David Shaw wants him to. Luckily for Hogan, he has plenty of talented players on offense to help him out. In the past three seasons, Stanford is 14-5 ATS (74%) after an ATS win and 7-0 ATS on the road in the second half of the year. However, Oregon State is 33-14 ATS (70%) in October games and 19-8 ATS (70%) off two straight Pac-12 wins under Mike Riley.
Stanford's Ty Montgomery is one of the most complete wide receivers in all of college football. At 6-foot-2 and nearly 220 pounds, Montgomery has great size to go along with his game-breaking speed. He is a very intelligent receiver (564 rec. yards, 5 TD), but also lethal in the return game with 633 yards on 18 kick returns (35.2 avg.) and 2 TD. One thing the Cardinal offense could use more of is big plays in the air attack, where they rank just 86th in the country with 209 passing YPG. Oregon State's defense has struggled against athletic quarterbacks, so look for QB Kevin Hogan (1,405 pass yards, 8.8 YPA, 13 TD, 5 INT) to take a couple of chances deep with Montgomery. However, if the Cardinal are going to win, it is going to be with their defense stopping Mannion. On defense, Jordan Richards will play a huge role in stopping Oregon State's offense. The junior safety intercepted UCLA QB Brett Hundley twice in last week's game, and was all over the field with 10 tackles. The Cardinal are loaded at all three levels on defense, and are led by senior LB Shayne Skov (58 tackles, 3.5 sacks). The defensive line must get pressure on Mannion though, because if he is able to sit back in the pocket and find his receivers, then Stanford is in trouble.
Many people wrote off Oregon State after the season-opening 49-46 loss to Eastern Washington. However, head coach Mike Riley has done a terrific job of righting the ship, and now the Beavers are back in Rose Bowl contention. They rank No. 1 in the country in passing (442.1 yards per game) and ninth overall in scoring (44.1 points). While junior QB Sean Mannion is the biggest reason for this success with 2,992 passing yards on 69% completions, 9.0 YPA, 29 TD and just 3 INT, junior WR Brandin Cooks is also putting up insane numbers with 76 catches for 1,176 yards (15.5 avg.) and 12 touchdowns. Standing at just 5-foot-10, he is able to run away from defenders and allows Mannion to use his strong arm. The defense is a different story though, and that unit must improve if they want to be a true Pac-12 contender. Senior CB Rashaad Reynolds (24 tackles) will likely be matched up against Montgomery, and he has played terrific as of late. All four of his interceptions have come in the team's past three games.
PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (4-2) at OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (7-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Ohio State -15 & 56.5
Opening Line & Total: Buckeyes -14.5 & 57
No. 4 Ohio State will look to avoid being the second consecutive upset victim for Penn State when the two teams kick off in Columbus on Saturday night.
Ohio State has yet to lose under head coach Urban Meyer, going 19-0 SU and 11-7-1 ATS dating back to last season. This year they are 4-2-1 ATS, though that also includes a lucky cover on a meaningless play at Northwestern. Penn State, meanwhile is only 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS this season, but is coming off a dramatic quadruple overtime win against Michigan two weeks ago before its bye week. The Nittany Lions are now 3-1-1 ATS in their past five games as underdogs, but they have failed to demonstrate any level of consistency as favorites, including disappointing SU losses to teams such as Indiana and Central Florida. Last year, the Buckeyes easily covered a 1-point spread in a 35-23 win at Penn State. Overall, Ohio State has dominated this series when playing at Ohio Stadium, going 8-2 (SU and ATS) in the past 10 meetings.
The Nittany Lions have a pass-heavy offense, which has resulted in big numbers for QB Christian Hackenberg, even if he has not been the most efficient of passers. He has thrown for 1,672 yards and 11 TD, while completing 58.4% of his passes and throwing 6 INT. He has one top target in WR Allen Robinson (43 rec., 705 yards, 5 TD), who is a big threat on any down. On the ground, RBs Zach Zwinak (393 rush yards, 4.3 YPC, 8 TD) and Bill Belton (369 rush yards, 5.3 YPC, 3 TD) split the carries. Defensively, Penn State's rushing defense has been its strength, giving up a mere 3.1 YPC. At times their pass coverage has been good too, limiting foes to a 56.1% completion percentage. Still, opposing passers are averaging 6.7 yards per passing attempt and 11.9 yards per completion.
Ohio State ranks 11th in the nation with 279.6 rushing yards per game, though that comes without one dominant workhorse. Three rushers have more than 300 yards for the Buckeyes on 75 or fewer carries. Carlos Hyde (443 rush yards, 6.2 YPC, 5 TD) and Jordan Hall (438 rush yards, 6.2 YPC, 8 TD) have been the most effective ones, and QB Braxton Miller has called his own number 75 times for 335 yards. In the air, Miller has been very efficient, completing 70% of his passes for 831 yards, 8 TD and 2 INT. His two primary passing targets have been WRs Philly Brown (33 rec., 453 yards, 6 TD) and Devin Smith (30 rec., 434 yards, 6 TD). Defensively, Ohio State has given up 19.9 PPG (22nd in nation), a big differential with their 45.0 PPG on offense, which ranks seventh-most in FBS. The Buckeyes give up only 3.0 YPC on the ground while yielding 7.0 yards per passing attempt.
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