Top 13 Games
Clemson got whacked at home by Florida State last week, how do they bounce back here, vs Maryland team they've beaten three times in a row by 43-21 average score. Tigers won three of last four visits here, winning by 11-13-4 points. Clemson covered five of last six games as a road fave in ACC play- their last six ACC road wins are by 11+ points- they won first two road games this year by 12-35 points. Maryland is improved but lost 34-10 last week at Wake Forest; they're -6 in turnovers in last two games, after being +4 in first five. ACC home underdogs are 6-4.
Virginia Tech won its last nine games with Duke, going 2-3 vs spread in last five; Blue Devils lost last five visits here by average score of 35-9, going 1-3 vs spread in last four, losing 41-20/44-7 last two. Duke (+2.5) was down 22-0 at Virginia last week, rallied for 35-22 win to get to 5-2; they're 2-0 on road this year, at Memphis/UVa. Hokies won last six in a row after losing opener to Alabama; they've won last three games, giving up 12 ppg, and had last week offr. Tech is 5-2 in its last seven games as a home favorite. ACC home favorites are 9-5 against the spread.
Oregon is 9-2 in last 11 games vs UCLA, winning last four by an average score of 41-20; Bruins lost 49-31/60-13 in last two visits here. Since '05, Oregon is 31-17-2 as home favorite, 2-1 this year and they won 62-34 in game they didn't cover- they've scored 45 points in every game this year and won all seven by 21+ points. UCLA ran ball well vs stiffs but in last two games have total of only 152 yards- they were outgained 419-266 in 24-10 loss at Stanford last week. Oregon ran ball for 291 yards/game in last four vs UCLA. Pac-12 home favorites are 11-5 against the spread.
USC beat Utah last two years 23-14/38-28, covering in last game here on a blocked FG for TD as time expired; Utes are 11-11 as road dogs under Whittingham, 1-1 this year, winning 20-13 (+6.5) at BYU, losing 35-24 (+3.5) last week at Arizona, week after upsetting Stanford at home. SC's offense was awful in 14-10 loss at Notre Dame last week; if WR Lee is unable to go (didn't play in 2nd half last week), Trojans will have seven walk-ons on offensive 2-deep depth chart. USC is 9-5 as home favorites the last 2+ years, 2-2 this year, with one win by more than 7 points.
Kansas State (+2.5) went to Morgantown and beat West Virginia 55-14 LY, outgaining Mountaineers 479-243, but Wildcats are struggling so far this year, losing last three games by 10-4-10 points while allowing 33.0 ppg to Texas/OSU/Baylor. WVU is also down this year, giving up 110 points in last two games; they're 0-3 away from home this year, losing by 9-37-31 points while allowing 42 ppg. Not fond of laying 11 points with team that lost at home to I-AA North Dakota State; K-State is 7-2 in last nine games as a home favorite, but best team they've beaten this year is UL-Lafayette (48-27, -11).
Texas Tech/Oklahoma split last eight meetings; all four Sooner wins were by 10+ points, three of four losses by 7 or less points. Tech lost seven of last eight visits here, winning 41-38 (+11) in last visit here two years ago, their only cover in last four visits to Norman. Red Raiders are 7-0, with wins at SMU/Kansas/WV; they've gained 518+ in each of last four games, but Oklahoma is best defensive team they've faced, allowing 21 or less points in every game but upset loss to Texas (36-20, -12) couple of weeks ago in Dallas. Big X home favorites are 4-4 against the spread.
TCU (+7) beat Texas 20-17 LY, outrushing Longhorns 217-86 with a +3 turnover ratio; Horned Frogs are finding Big X play to be tough, starting 1-3 in league play this year, with only win 27-17 (-24) vs a bad Kansas team. TCU is 5-8 in league play since joining the Big X, after being 30-1 in last four years in Mountain West. Not sure what to think of 4-2 Texas that has had two weeks since uplifting 36-20 win over Oklahoma, a week after they survived 31-30 at Iowa State. Longhorns are 3-0 in Big X with totals of 52-61-56. They lost other road game 40-21 (-7) at BYU.
Northwestern won six of last eight games with Iowa; underdogs won six of the eight games SU. Wildcats won three of last four visits here, are 5-1 vs spread in last six games as a series dog- they had 349 rushing yards in LY's 28-17 (-5) home win over Hawkeyes. 4-3 Iowa is 2-2 at home, with losses to Michigan State/Ohio State last two weeks; Hawkeyes are 3-5 in last eight games as a Big Dozen home favorite. Northwestern lost three in row after a 4-3 start, losing 20-17 as 13-point favorites to Minnesota last week; they scored 6-17 points in last two games, after scoring 30+ in first five games, as their QBs have been banged up.
Nevada won its last eight games vs rival UNLV, covering six; Rebels lost last four visits to Reno by average score of 37-18 (0-4 vs spread), but for first time in four years, Nevada is single digit favorite, sign of progress in UNLV's program (won 4 in row for first time since '84 earlier this year). Wolf Pack allowed 42.3 ppg in last three games, allowing 1,037 yards on ground; they've scored 31+ points in their wins this year, but also lost in OT at San Diego St. 51-44- they scored 20 or less in other three losses. UNLV is 1-1 as road dog; they allowed 117 points in last three games.
Oregon State is 6-1, with only loss to I-AA Eastern Washington, which then lost its next two games; Beavers have best QB you've never seen in senior Mannion- they've scored 44 ppg vs I-A foes and four of their last five games were on road. State lost last three games with Stanford by 4-25-38 points, in series where favorite is 6-3-1 vs spread in last ten tilts. Cardinal lost four of last six visits to Corvallis, but won 38-13 last time they were here. Stanford has had rough games last three weeks, beating Washington by FG, losing at Utah, then beating UCLA 24-10 last week.
Missouri is 7-0 after spanking Florida 36-17 last week (TY 500-151) in freshman backup QB Mauk's first college start; Tigers (+10.5) lost 31-10 at South Carolina LY, outgained 396-255 in first SEC meeting. Mizzou scored 36+ points in every game, but they also allowed 435+ yards in four of last five games. Gamecocks are on road for 4th time in last five weeks; they're 2-2 on road, allowing 23+ points in five of last six games- they completed only 8-22 passes in LW's 23-21 loss at Tennessee. SEC home favorites are 5-8 against the spread so far this season. Carolina is 14-10-1 as road dogs under Spurrier, 0-1 this season.
Nebraska whacked Minnesota 38-14/41-14 last two years, outgaining the Gophers by 264 yards/game; Cornhuskers won first two conference tilts 39-19/44-7 after getting upset at home by UCLA- they're 10-7-1 as road favorites under Pelini, 1-0 this year- this is only their second road game this year (44-7 at Purdue, -13). Minnesota scored 13.3 ppg in 1-2 start in league play; they're still without coach Kill,. who is recovering after a series of seizures. Gophers are 4-6 in last ten games as home underdog, losing to Iowa 23-7 in Big Dozen home opener. Big Dozen home dogs have covered five of seven games this year.
Penn State allowed 84 points in last two games, losing at Indiana in only true road game this year, then beating Michigan in OT. Ohio State is 8-3 in last 11 games against the Lions, with last five wins all by 11+ points, but Penn State did win two of last three visits here. Buckeyes are 3-0 in league play, winning by 7-10-10 points while allowing 24+ points in all three games. OSU covered four of last five tries as a home favorite in Big Dozen games. Penn State covered three of last four games as a Big Dozen road underdog, but failed to cover last two when getting double digits.
Notes on rest of the games.
-- Home side covered 15 of last 18 Georgia Tech-Virginia games; faves are 8-3 vs spread in last 11. ACC home underdogs are 6-4 this year.
-- UConn is 0-6 this year, losing 41-16/41-12 in only road games; dogs are 8-2 vs spread in AAC games, 5-1 on road. UCF isw 5-1, with last three wins all by 7 or less points.
-- Ball State won its last three games vs Akron by 7-17-6 points; they've won last three road games, by 31-21-21 points. MAC home underdogs are 1-11 vs spread this season.
-- Miami lost last three visits to Ohio U, by 7-21-9 points; Red Hawks are 0-4 as road underdogs this year, losing by an average score of 40-11.
-- Buffalo won its last three visits to Kent State by 3-7-4 points; Bulls won last five games, last four by average score of 37-7. Kent lost its last three games, allowing an average of 34.3 ppg.
-- Western Michigan is 0-5 vs spread in last five games, with losses all by 18+ points; Broncos hammered UMass 52-14 (-16.5) in first meeting last year, outgaining Minutemen, 551-218.
-- Houston lost its first game last week, 47-46 at home to BYU; they're +14 in turnovers this year, are 2-0 on road, winning 22-13 at Temple and 59-28 at UTSA. Rutgers gave up 1,019 yards in its last two games.
-- Boston College covered once in its last six games as an ACC road dog; they lost last three games with North Carolina, by 18-21-2 points, with underdogs covering three of last four series games.
-- Pitt split two road games this year, winning 58-55 at Duke, losing at Va Tech 19-9. Panthers held last three foes under 100 yards rushing, ACC non-conference favorites are 14-7 vs spread, 4-1 on road.
-- UAB is 2-4, allowing average of 38.5 ppg; they're 1-2 as road dog this year, losing by 3-3-39-28 points. UTSA lost its last three games, giving up an average of 40 ppg. C-USA home favorites are 2-5 vs spread.
-- Temple is 2-0 as road dog this year, covering in losses at Notre Dame (28-6, +29), Cincinnati (38-20, +21). SMU is 1-4 vs I-A teams, beating Memphis 34-29 in its last game.
-- Arizona had 438 yards rushing in 56-31 (-29) win over Colorado LY; favorites are 5-0 vs spread in Wildcats' games this year. Buffs allowed average of 51.7 ppg in its last three games vs I-A opponents.
-- Robinette starts at QB for Vanderbilt after leading comeback win vs Georgia LW; under Franklin. Vandy is 11-5 vs spread in game following a win. Texas A&M alllowed 33-38-45 points in its last three games.
-- Florida Atlantic is 5-0 as a road dog this season, losing 34-6 (+31) to Miami, best team they've played. 6-1 Auburn is off dramatixc 45-41 win at Texas A&M last week; they have Arkansas/Tennessee on deck.
--Alabama won its last six games vs Tennessee, winning last four here by average score of 24-9; Vols covered seven of last nine here, but lost their two road games this year, 59-14 at Oregon, 31-17 at Florida.
-- Tulsa won/covered its last eight games with Tulane, winning last four here by average score of 39-14. Green Wave is 5-2; their last three home games were decided by a total of eight points.
-- Underdogs covered five of last six Cal-Washington games, as Huskies won last four, with only one of four by more than 8 points. Cal is 0-6 vs spread this year, losing last five games, all by 18+ points.
-- Michigan State won nine of last ten games with Illinois, winning last five visits here, covering last four (average score of last five, 38-14). Big Dozen home underdogs are 2-4 vs spread this season.
-- Miami had big week already, being eligible for bowl this year; they've won last four games vs Wake Forest (3-1 vs spread), with last meeting in '09. Wake is 0-2 as road dog in '13, losing 24-10 at BC, 56-7 at Clemson.
-- Wyoming is 13-4 as a road underdog under Christensen, but they lost last three games overall, allowing 41.7 ppg. Home teams are just 3-17 vs spread in Mountain West games, 2-9 when facvored.
-- Faves covered last three Troy-Western Kentucky games; WKU won last two, 31-26/41-18. five of Trojans' six I-A games were decided by 7 or less points, with losing side scoring 31+ in all five of those.
-- This is a sub-par Air Force team; they're 0-6 vs I-A teams, with four losses by 18+ points (2-4 vs spread). Notre Dame is 5-2, but with only one win (Temple 28-6 in opener) by more than seven points.
-- South Alabama is 5-0 vs spread this year, with all five games decided by 7 or less points- their three road games were decided by total of only 10 points. Texas State won two of three I-A home games.
-- Southern Miss is 0-18 since end of '11 season; their two home losses this year are by total of 8 points. North Texas is 5-2 vs spread, but 1-3 SU on road, with only win 28-13 (-3.5) at Louisiana Tech.
-- Louisiana Tech is 1-5 vs I-A teams, losing road games at NC State by 40-14, 13-10 at Kansas. FIU's last two games were decided by total of 4 points, after they lost first four games by average score of 47-6.
-- Favorites covered seven of last eight Oklahoma State-Iowa State tilts; Cowboys lost three of last four visits here, losing 37-31 (-27) in OT last time they were here '11, when they were unbeaten coming in.
-- Underdogs covered four of last five Louisville-South Florida games, as Cardinals won last two, 27-25/34-24, but they've lost four of last five in James Stadium, giving up 41.3 ppg in the four losses .
-- Toledo won its last three games vs Bowling Green by average score of 29-17; underdogs are 4-2-1 vs spread in Rockets' last seven visits here. Falcons is 3-0 at home vs I-A teams, with all three wins by 17+.
-- Rice won six of its last seven games with UTEP, winning last three in Houston by 4-1-8 points; underdogs are 6-2 vs spread in last eight series gamwes. Owls won last four games, three by six or less points.
-- Home side won last two Fresno-San Diego State games; Bulldogs won 52-40 (-7) LY, lost 35-28 (+8) here in '11. Fresno is 6-0 this season, with three wins by 5 or less points- they allowed 37+ in those three wins.
-- Colorado State (-6) beat Hawai'i 42-27 LY, Hawai'i completed only 19 of 46 passes. Rams are 3-4, scoring 34-59-52 in their wins, 27 or less in losses.Mountain West home underdogs are 1-8 against the spread.
Armadillosports.com
Line Moves - Week 9
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 8 Recap
Favorites: 1-2 ATS (3-0 SU)
Underdogs: 1-4 ATS (0-5 SU)
Totals: 1-1
For the second consecutive week, bettors who visited the betting counter early received a punch in the stomach. The only favorite to cover the opening and closing number was Wisconsin, who blasted Illinois 56-32 on the road. Even though the underdogs connected at a 20 percent clip last week, you can argue that the early money was on the right side. Central Michigan, West Virginia and Indiana were all bet down and they were in great position to cover. Unfortunately for the trio and bettors backing them, they were outscored 49-10 in the fourth quarter to Northern Illinois, Texas Tech and Michigan respectively.
Week 9 Line Moves
CRIS, one of the biggest offshore sportsbooks, opened up their college football lines for Week 9 last Sunday. Below are all of the moves of at least “Three Points” or more off the opening line from CRIS.
Favorites
Clemson at Maryland
Open: Tigers -13
Friday: Tigers -16½ (Maryland QB Brown out)
Texas San Antonio vs. UAB
Open: Roadrunners – 3 ½
Friday: Roadrunners -8
SMU vs. Temple
Open: Mustangs -10
Friday: Mustangs -14
Washington at California
Open: Huskies -23
Friday: Huskies -28
Kansas State vs. West Virginia
Open: Wildcats -7½
Friday: Wildcats -11½
Florida State vs. N.C. State
Open: Seminoles -27½
Friday: Seminoles -32
San Jose State vs. Wyoming
Open: Spartans -3½
Friday: Spartans – 8½
Underdogs
Kent State vs. Buffalo
Open: Golden Flashes +3
Friday: Pick ‘em
North Carolina vs. Boston College
Open: Tar Heels +10
Friday: Tar Heels +6½
Colorado vs. Arizona
Open: Buffaloes +17
Friday: Buffaloes +13
Florida Atlantic at Auburn
Open: Owls +28
Friday: Owls +23½
Illinois vs. Michigan State
Open: Fighting Illini +13
Friday: Fighting Illini +9½
Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State
Open: Cyclones +17
Friday: Cyclones +12 ½
Hawaii vs. Colorado State
Open: Warriors +5
Friday: Warriors +2
Week 9 Total Moves
CRIS opened their ‘over/under’ numbers on Monday. Only two games saw significant movement and they're listed below.
UTEP at Rice
Open: 55½
Friday: 60½
California at Washington
Open: 64½
Friday: 67½