NCAAF Week 6
Top 13 Games
Iowa won five of last seven games with Michigan State, in series where favorites covered four of last five played here. Spartans' 27-21 win here in 2011 was their first in last six visits to Iowa City. State won eight of last ten Big Dozen road games, covering four of last five as a underdog on road. Dogs are 5-2 vs spread in Iowa's last seven conference home tilts. State was held under 300 TY in all three I-A games, losing 17-13 in only road game, at Notre Dame (+4.5). Hawkeyes allowed total of 10 points and 20 first downs in last two games, winning 59-3/23-7.
Florida State won its last six games with Maryland (4-2 vs spread) with Seminoles winning last eight played here by average score of 39-18 (6-2 vs spread). FSU won last seven ACC home games, covering five of last six, with average score in those six games 46-11. Maryland is improved this year, scoring 39.8 ppg in 4-0 start, including 37-0 win over a West Virginia they've struggled with in past, but this is still step up in class for Terps, who are 12-14-1 as road dog since '07, 5-5 under Edsall. FSU is averaging 50.3 ppg and 546.3 ypg vs I-A teams.
Clemson makes first visit to Syracuse to face its new conference rival; Tigers won their first two ACC games 26-14/56-7 and also beat Georgia at home; they're 5-3 last eight games as a road favorite. Syracuse is 1-2 vs I-A teams, beating Tulane easily after losing 23-17 to Penn State on a neutral field, then getting since '07, Orange is 8-14-1 as a home underdog. Clemson has good balance on offense, running for 166+ yards in every game, passing for 3-7 ypg vs I-A opponents.
Georgia won 44-41 vs LSU last week, giving up 372 passing yards but doing enough to win; quick turnaround to face Tennessee squad they've beaten last three times by 7-8-27 points. Dawgs lost 38-35 at Clemson in only road game this year; they're 7-4 in last 11 games as road favorite. Tennessee is rebuilding- they've allowed 393/392 yards in wins against WKU/South Alabama-- Oregon/Georgia beat them 59-14/31-17, but they were road games. Since 2007, Vols are 1-9 as home underdogs- QBs had hard time in losses, completing just 29-63 passes vs Oregon/Florida.
Florida only threw ball 18 times with backup QB Murphy in 24-7 win at Kentucky last week; they've won last six games with Arkansas, going 3-1 vs spread in last four. Defense hasn't allowed more than 66 yards on ground, while holding three of four opponents under 50% passing- they are 5-8 as home favorites under Muschamp. Razorbacks lost last couple games to Rutgers/Texas A&M; Aggies had 262 yards rushing, 261 thru air last week. Arkansas is 1-6 in last seven games as a road dog. Bielema was 3-1 in his last four games as a road underdog at Wisconsin.
Oklahoma (-5.5) beat TCU 24-17 in Fort Worth LY, outgaining Frogs by 71 yards; Sooners are off 35-21 win (-3.5) at Notre Dame, where they scored two quick TDs in first 5:00, then held Irish off, running ball for 238 yards, passing for 212. Oklahoma is 7-8 in last 15 games as a home favorite, 2-1 this year. Horned Frogs covered six of last eight games as a road underdog; both their losses this season (LSU/Texas Tech) are by 10 points, with TCU outgaining Tech by 65 yards. Frogs have nine starters back on defense. Oklahoma QB Bell is making just his third career start.
Oklahoma State won three of last four games with K-State, gaining 500+ TY in all four games, but they lost 44-30 in Manhattan LY; Wildcats lost last three visits to Stillwater, losing by 7-2-5 points. Average total in last four K-State visits here is 78.5. Since 2008, OSU is 23-7-1 as favorite at home. Wildcats are 10-3 as road underdogs since Snyder returned as HC at K-State, but they lost by 10 at Texas last game and also lost at home to I-AA North Dakota State- they allowed 215-227 rushing yards in the two losses. Dogs are 4-2 vs spread in last six series games.
Vanderbilt (+7) won 19-15 at Missouri LY, despite being outgained by 100 yards; Tigers completed just 14-40 passes. Commodores are 0-2 in SEC play, allowing 35-39 points- they're still 10-8 against spread under Franklin in league games, but 8-1 overall as a home favorite. 4-0 Mizzou is scoring 45.5 ppg, but its only road win was 45-28 (-2.5) at Indiana, in game where Tigers outgained IU by 148 yards but allowed 377 yards in air. Mizzou is 6-3 in last nine games as a road underdog- they're 7-10 vs spread iin conference play the last two seasons.
Stanford won six of last eight games with Washington, but was upset LY in Seattle, 17-13; favorites are 3-1 vs spread in last four series games. Huskies lost three of last four visits here, losing 65-21/34-14 in last two trips. Cardinal is 2-6 in last eight games as a home favorite, but is 14-7 vs spread in Pac-12 games under Shaw. U-Dub has 18 starters back- they beat Illinois 34-24 (-10.5) in Chicago; since '07, Huskies are 8-17 as road underdogs- they have 244+ rushing yards in every game. Stanford gave up 689 passing yards in last two games, but had big leads both games.
Auburn won seven of last nine games with Ole Miss, with average total of 65 in last four games; favorites are 6-3 vs spread in last nine. Rebels lost last four visits here, all by 13+ points- they're 5-1 vs spread after a loss, under Freeze. Ole Miss got held to 46 rushing yards in 25-0 loss at Alabama last week; Rebels had 200+ rushing yards in last five games vs Auburn. Tigers allowed 430 rushing yards in splitting pair of SEC tilts; since '09, they're 5-3 as home underdogs. New QB Marshall completed only 58% passes in his first four college starts for Auburn.
Arizona State is playing 4th tough opponent in row without a Saturday off; look for Notre Dame to pound ball vs ASU defense that has to be a little tired after giving up 231-240-247 rushing yards in last three games. Since 2005, Irish are 13-8 as road underdogs- they ran ball for 220 yards in loss to Oklahoma last week, after averaging only 89.7 ypg on ground in previous three games. Sun Devils got whacked 42-28 at Stanford in only road game this year; this game is at neutral Dallas site. Two teams teams that beat ND this year gained 460/450 TY, scored 41-35 points.
Ohio State won four in row, nine of last ten games vs Northwestern, as Wildcats were outscored by average score of 51-9 in last four meetings. Buckeyes won four of last five visits to Evanston, winning 45-10/54-10 in last two. OSU is 0-4 vs spread in last four tries as a Big Dozen road favorites- they covered only road game this year 52-34 (-14) over Cal in Berkeley. Wildcats covered only once in last five games as a Big Dozen home dog; they also won at Cal this season, beating Bears 44-30 (-5.5) in its season opener- they've run ball for 200+ yards in all four '13 games.
Penn State won its last 12 games with Indiana, but covered only two of last six vs Hoosiers; Lions won their last five visits here, but only one of those five wins was by more than six points. Indiana is 1-3 vs spread in series when spread was single digit; they've lost 10 of last 11 Big Dozen home games, with three of last four losses by 6 or less points. Penn State is 11-4 in last 15 games as a road favorite, but this first true road game for frosh QB Hackenberg, who completed 62% of passes thru first four college games. Penn State did beat Syracuse 23-17 on a neutral field.
Notes on rest of the games......
-- Underdogs are 11-2-1 vs spread in last 14 Air Force-Navy games. AF lost three of last four visits here, with three of four games decided by 3 or less points.
-- Underdogs covered last seven Western Michigan-Toledo games (5-2 SU); Broncos lost 66-63 (+11) in last visit here.
-- Eastern Michigan won its last five games vs Buffalo, with three of five decided by 4 or less points; EMU is 0-1 vs I-A teams, allowing 41 ppg.
-- Boston College allowed 83 points in losing its last two games, at USC and vs Florida State; they step down in class here, vs Army team that is 1-3 vs I-A teams, with losses by 26-14-14 points.
-- Central Michigan won three of last four games vs Miami, but they've allowed 44 ppg in losing first four games vs I-A teams. Miami is 0-4 this season, outscored by an average score of 39-9.
-- Virginia scored total of 32 points in 1-2 start vs I-A teams; since 2007, Cavaliers are 5-9-4 as home favorites. Ball State scored 37 ppg in taking three of four games vs I-A opponents- they're 24-7 as road dogs.
-- Favorites covered four of last five Georgia Tech-Miami games; 'canes won last four series games, with three wins by 16+ points. Tech lost by 24-7/33-17 in last two visits here.
-- NC State failed to cover its last 12 games as a road favorite, losing 10 of the 12 games SU. Home teams are 10-1 in this series; Wolfpack lost last five visits here- last time they beat Wake two in row was '01-'02.
-- Nebraska's defense allowed 602/504 yards to Wyoming/UCLA, then gave up 465 to I-AA South Dakota State last game. Illinois is playing on road for first time; they're 4-9 vs spread in last 13 away games.
-- Marshall is 5-8 in its last 13 games as a home favorite. UTSA is 1-3 in its last four games, with losses by 21-25-31 points.
-- Since 2005, North Texas is 0-2 as a road favorite; they've lost six road games in a row SU. Tulane is 5-3 vs spread at home under Johnson.
-- Tulsa won six in row, nine of last 10 games with Rice, going 3-1-1 vs spread in last five. Owls lost last three visits here by 4-37-35 points.
-- Virginia Tech won seven of last nine games with North Carolina; dogs are 4-2 vs spread in last six. Hokies covered once in last seven games as a home favorite. UNC is 2-2-1 in last five games as a road underdog.
-- Cincinnati won six of last seven games with South Florida, winning its last three visits here by 3-17-5 points. USF is 0-4 and hasn't come closer than 15 points in any of their games.
-- Michigan won last five games with Minnesota, four by 22+ points; in last 10 series games, faves are 7-3 vs spread. Gophers lost 58-0/34-10 in last two visits to the Big House.
-- Central Florida had tough game with South Carolina last week- they're 8-0 in last eight vs Memphis, winning last four here but covering in only one of four. Memphis is 1-2 in first three games, but allowed total of 24 points in last two, so their defense is improved.
-- Since 2005, Rutgers is 6-10 as a road favorite; they lost 52-51 in OT at Fresno in only road game this year. SMU is 6-2 in its last eight games as a home underdog.
-- Fresno State won last seven games with Idaho (5-2 vs spread); they won/covered last four visits to Moscow. Vandals upset Temple 26-24 last week, after giving up 40+ points in losing their first four games.
-- UL-Lafayette is 5-8 in last 13 games as a home favorite. Texas State is 3-1 after upsetting (+12) a good Wyoming team last week, 42-21.
-- New Mexico State won three of last four games with New Mexico, as underdogs covered all four games. Aggies covered four of last five visits to Albuquerque.
-- Cal won its last eight games with Washington State, but Coogs are 5-1 vs spread in last six visits to Berkeley. Cal's freshman QB Goff couldn't play in rain last week, had trouble gripping the wet ball.
-- Northern Illinois won its last six games with Kent State, covering five of them; they won 42-14/34-3 in last two visits here. Kent is 8-10-1 in its last 19 games as a home underdog.
-- South Carolina won 12 of last 13 games with Kentucky, going 5-2-1 vs spread in last eight. Wildcats lost last six visits to Columbia, going 1-3 vs spread in last four.
-- Hard to lay 17 points with Southern Miss team that hasn't won game since 2011 (0-16 SU). FIU lost its first four games by 187-23 total.
-- Bowling Green covered five of last seven games as a home favorite. UMass was outscored 106-14 in three games vs I-A opponents.
-- Florida Atlantic won three of last four games with UAB, with average total in four games, 76.0. Owls are 10-1 in last 11 games as a road dog.
-- Underdogs covered six of last eight Texas Tech-Kansas games; Tech won last six meetings, winning 41-34/45-34 the last two years. Kansas covered six of last nine games as a home underdog.
-- Middle Tennessee is 0-6 in last six games as a home dog. East Carolina had big regional win, upsetting North Carolina in its last game; Pirates are 4-8 in last dozen games as a road favorite.
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