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College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, October 7th, 2017

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College Football betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, October 7th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites

Posted : October 4, 2017 10:54 am

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College Football Week 6

Penn State escaped Iowa with a 21-19 win in their only road game two weeks ago, but they did outgain Hawkeyes 579-273 that day. Lions are 3-5 as a road favorite under Franklin. Favorites covered six of last seven Penn State-Northwestern games; Wildcats won last two meetings, 29-6/23-21. Lions are 5-2 in last seven visits to Evanston (dogs 4-3 vs spread). Northwestern lost 41-17 at Duke, 33-24 at Wisconsin; they beat couple of stiffs at home; Wildcats are 5-9 vs spread in last nine games as a home underdog. Big 14 home dogs are 1-4 vs spread this year.

Clemson won its last eight games with Wake Forest but Deacons covered last three. Wake lost its last 8 visits to Death Valley but is 4-2-1 vs spread in last seven, Wake gained less than 300 yards in each of last three series games, but they’re better this year. Deacons outgained Florida St by 97 yards LW, but lost 26-19 at the end; Wake is 7-3 vs spread in last ten games as a road underdog. Clemson is 5-0, with one win by less than 14 points; they’re 15-12-1 in last 28 games as a home favorite, 2-1 this year. Under is 15-9 in Tigers’ last 24 home games.

Minnesota is 3-1, losing 31-24 at home to Maryland and their 3rd-string QB last week. Terps ran ball for 262 yards against them. Gophers hammered Oregon State 48-14 in their only road game this year- last 4+ years, they’re 9-5-1 vs spread as a road underdog. Purdue is 2-2; they ran ball for 253/205 yards in easy wins over Ohio/Missouri, they were held to 51-30 yards in losses to Louisville/Michigan. Boilermakers covered their last four tries as a home favorite. Big 14 home underdogs are 1-4 against the spread this season.

Michigan is 4-0, allowing 13.5 ppg; no one has gained more than 232 yards against them so far this year. Wolverines are 8-8 as home favorites under Harbaugh, 0-2 this year. Michigan is 2-7 in last nine games with Michigan State; Spartans covered their last four visits to Ann Arbor. This is first road game for State squad that is 3-1, scoring 18-17 points in last two games. State is 7-2 vs spread in last nine games as a road underdog- they held Iowa to 231 yards in 17-10 win last week. Big 14 home teams are 3-7 vs spread, 2-3 if favored.

Utah won both its Pac-12 games with Stanford 27-21/20-17; teams haven’t met since 2014, when Utes won despite gaining only 247 yards. Utah had last week off; they haven’t beaten anyone good yet, surviving road trips to BYU (19-13), Arizona (30-24). Stanford scored 92 points in winning its last two games, after losing road games at USC (42-24), San Diego State (20-17); Cardinal was held under 200 rushing yards in both their losses- they averaged 340 YR in their 3 wins. Pac-12 home teams are 7-5 vs spread in league games, 3-3 when getting points.

Navy is 4-0, running ball for 990 yards in last two games; they threw total of 7 passes in last two games. Midshipmen are 13-8 vs spread in last 21 games as a home favorite; they’re 3-4 in last seven games with Air Force, but Flyboys are 1-6 in last seven visits to Annapolis, 1-7-1 vs spread in last nine. Air Force lost its last three games, giving up 84 points in losing first two MW games; Falcons covered five of last six games as a road underdog. Air Force gave up 363 yards to New Mexico’s run-based attack LW, a red flag if they’re playing Navy seven days later.

South Carolina scored 13-17-17 points in its last three games, losing twice; their last four games stayed under total. Gamecocks are 5-11 vs spread in last 16 games as a home favorite; they won last two games with Arkansas by 52-7/38-20 scores, but last meeting was in 2013. Home side won/covered five of last seven series games. This is first true road game for Arkansas; they lost 50-43 to Texas A&M in Arlington. Razorbacks covered six of last eight true road games; they beat couple of stiff teams this year, but lost to TCU (28-7) and Aggies, two good teams.

First road game for 5-0 Washington State squad that rallied from 21 down to beat Boise State in OT, then held USC off 30-27 in emotional game last Friday. Coogs beat Oregon 51-33/45-38 last two years; they covered last seven series games (six as a double digit dog), last three trips to Autzen Stadium. State is 14-4 vs spread in last 18 games as a road underdog. Oregon scored 42-45 points in home wins over Nebraska/Cal (1-1 vs spread); Ducks are 4-9 vs spread in last 13 tries as a home favorite. Pac-12 home favorites are 4-2 vs spread this season.

West Virginia outscored lowly Kansas 56-34 LW, but Jayhawks ran ball for 367 yards, a huge red flag since they’re visiting a quality opponent this week. West Va is 2-1 vs I-A teams but allowed 28.3 ppg in the three games; they’re 12-19 vs spread as a home favorite under Holgorsen. TCU is 4-0, scoring 100 points in its last two games, including a SU win LW as a 13-point dog at Okla State- they ran ball for 492 yards in those games. Horned Frogs are 0-7 vs spread in last seven games as home favorite.

Florida QB Del Rio (collarbone) is out; red shirt freshman QB Franks (40-63/557) takes over as starting QB. Gators won first three SEC games, allowing 23.7 ppg since 33-17 neutral field loss to Michigan in their opener. Florida is 5-6 vs spread as a home favorite under McElwain. LSU lost as a 20-point home favorite to Troy State LW, giving up 206 YR; they lost 37-7 at Miss State in their only road game, giving up 285 rushing yards. Last 3+ years, Tigers are 0-3-1 vs spread as a road underdog. QB Etling was banged up last week, but returned late in the game.

Wisconsin is 4-0 but Northwestern is best team they’ve played; Badgers hammered BYU 40-6 in their only road game. Badgers are 9-1 vs spread on road under Chryst, 6-1 when favored. Under is 10-4 in their last 14 road games. Nebraska’s coach is on hot seat after the AD got fired; Huskers won last two games over stiffs after losing to Oregon/Northern Illinois. Since 2008, Nebraska is 2-3 as a home underdog, 1-1 under Riley. Badgers won five of last six games with Nebraska, beating Cornhuskers 23-21/23-17 in last two meetings.

Since 2007, Kansas State is 24-9 vs spread when getting points on the road; they’re 3-1 SU this year but lost only road game 14-7 at Vanderbilt- Wildcats threw for just 76 yards in that game, 119 yards in LW’s 33-20 win over Baylor. Home side won K-State’s last five games with Texas, losing 23-9/31-21 in last two visits here, which are Longhorns’ only two wins in last nine series games. Longhorns are 2-2, losing to Maryland/USC; they struggled to beat Iowa State 17-7 LW, running for only 141 yards. Texas is 9-7-1 vs spread in last 17 games as a home favorite.

Florida State is playing a true freshman QB who hasn’t been in weight room long enough to take a season’s pounding— he does have ability, but had only 121 passing yards LW in 26-19 win at Wake Forest 26-19 LW: they were outgained by 97 yards, scored GW TD with 0:53 left. Miami is 3-0 after pounding Duke 31-6 LW; they won previous game 52-30 over Toledo. Hurricanes lost their last seven games vs Florida State- underdogs covered five of those seven games. Miami lost last three visits to Doak Campbell Stadium, by 4-27-5 points.

Armadillosports.com

Posted : October 4, 2017 10:55 am

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College Football's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 6
By: Monty Andrews
Covers.com

Miami at Florida State (+3, 48)

Miami's vaunted run defense vs. FSU's struggles on the ground

The Miami Hurricanes made a major statement this past weekend, shutting down host Duke en route to a 31-6 win over the Blue Devils. Now, the 13th-ranked Hurricanes will look to end a seven-game losing skid to rival Florida State as they visit the Seminoles on Saturday afternoon. Florida State has had a dreadful start to the season - thanks in no small part to the havoc caused by Hurricane Irma - and won't dig out of its hole if it can't find a way to solve Miami's impressive run defense.

Duke came into last week's encounter armed with one of the most potent ground attacks in the nation - and while it did manage to rack up 183 rushing yards against Miami, it needed a whopping 46 carries to do so. More importantly, Miami kept the Blue Devils out of the end zone; Duke entered the game with 11 rushing scores in its first four games. The Hurricanes have held opponents to a minuscule 3.5 YPC average through three games and have permitted just one rushing touchdowns so far.

That doesn't bode well for Florida State, which had high hopes coming into 2017 but has yet to get its running game untracked. The Seminoles average a paltry 3.1 YPC through three games, with just one rushing touchdown on its ledger. Florida State ran the ball 43 times in Saturday's victory over Wake Forest, but generated just 149 yards on the ground (3.5 YPC); a similar effort against the formidable Hurricanes this weekend could drop the Seminoles to 1-3 on the season.

LSU at Florida (-3, 46.5)

LSU's third-down troubles vs. Florida's drive-killing prowess

Things are B-A-D at LSU after the Tigers saw their 49-game home winning streak against non-conference opponents halted in a shocking 24-21 loss to Troy - a game in which LSU was a 20-point fave. Things don't get any easier this coming weekend as the Tigers tangle with a Gators team that improved to 3-0 in SEC play with a two-touchdown triumph over Vanderbilt. LSU will need to be much better than it was last week - particularly when it comes to third-down conversions.

The Tigers can point to several factors that contributed to their stunning loss - and failure to extend drives is at the top of the list. LSU went an unfathomable 0-for-9 on third-down conversions, and needed to connect on a pair of fourth downs just to score a fourth-quarter touchdown that made things interesting. The Tigers have gone a combined 3-for-22 on third-down conversions in their two losses this season, and rank a dismal 93rd in overall third-down success rate (35.7 percent) on the season.

Florida has done a lot of things right in conference play so far this season, and forcing teams to punt has been among its most impressive feats. Tennessee, Kentucky and Vanderbilt have gone a combined 9-for-39 on third downs in the Gators' three SEC victories, pushing Florida to 14th in the nation in overall third-down conversion rate allowed (28.1 percent). With these teams at the opposite end of the third-down spectrum, don't be surprised to see the Gators extend their success through the weekend.

West Virginia at TCU (-13.5, 71)

WV's underwhelming red-zone defense vs. TCU's nose for the end zone

If you like touchdowns and haven't already set your PVR for this game, you're doing it wrong. Two of the top five scoring offenses in the nation square off this weekend as the TCU Horned Frogs welcome the West Virginia Mountaineers to Amon G. Carter Stadium. These teams combine for an obscene 96.6 points per game - and while they might not get there on Saturday, you can bet on TCU's potent red-zone offense to give the Horned Frogs a decided scoring edge in this one.

West Virginia's 48.8 points per game rank second in the nation - but the Mountaineers haven't faced an offense like this. And given how they have performed against opposing teams in the red zone so far this season, they should be concerned. West Virginia has allowed foes to score on 12 of 14 trips inside its 20-yard line - an 85.7-percent success rate that ranks 76th nationally. Eight of those scores have been touchdowns - five on the ground and three through the air.

As you might expect, TCU - which averages an equally impressive 47.8 points per contest - has excelled in the red zone this season. The Horned Frogs have 14 touchdowns - eight rushing, six receiving - and three field goals in 19 visits inside the opponents' 20, good for an 89.5-percent success rate that ranks 37th in Division I. If this game becomes a battle of red-zone defenses, bank on TCU, which ranks inside the top 25 in red-zone defense at 72.7 percent.

Washington State at Oregon (-2, 64)

WSU's terrific discipline vs. Oregon's penalty parade

Washington State is knocking on the door of the top 10 following an impressive 30-27 win over USC last weekend. In addition to holding the Trojans to 2-of-11 on third down and forcing a pair of turnovers, the Cougars prevailed both in penalties (six to USC's nine) and penalty yards (59 to the Trojans' 80). Look for a similar - or larger - advantage this weekend, as Washington State looks to remain unbeaten against an Oregon side that can light up the scoreboard but has littered the field in yellow.

The Cougars have shown great discipline to date, ranking fourth in the Pac-12 in total penalties (27), penalty yards (251) and average yards per game (50.2). They're at a modest advantage in that regard, having drawn an average of 54 opponent penalty yards through five games. Keeping the flags off the field has contributed, at least in part, to Washington State's 33:36 average time of possession, which leads the Pac-12 and ranks 13th nationally.

The Ducks are an imposing unit, leading the nation in scoring (49.6) while ranking inside the top 15 in rushing yards per game (260.8 ). But when it comes to discipline, Oregon is miles behind the rest of the pack. The Ducks have racked up the most penalties (52) and penalty yards (467) in Division I, while ranking second from the bottom in penalty yards per game (93.4). Combined with the fact that Oregon has drawn an average of just 48.1 penalty yards per game, and it's a wonder the Ducks are 4-1.

Posted : October 4, 2017 10:57 am

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The Dozen: Cougs look for more
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Much like last week, top teams will be looking to avoid upsets as the first Saturday in October unfolds. Here are the games that should most command your attention:

1. Washington State at Oregon: The Cougs have the juice now, having held off USC in a battle of unbeatens that now sets up a potentially special season for Mike Leach's program. Washington State hasn't thrived nationally in 15 years, but have a manageable schedule in October that gives it a chance to enter a Nov. 4 home date with Stanford 9-0.

Getting through this game in Eugene will be the major obstacle, and no line was available early in the week due to the uncertain status of Ducks running back Royce Freeman. It was a rough Saturday night for Oregon in spite of it pulling away to rout Cal because QB Justin Herbert was lost for the remainder of the season after fracturing his clavicle and Freeman suffered what looked like a shoulder injury that may sideline him beyond this week.

Top receiver Charles Nelson is questionable with an ankle and there are numerous other concerns, including TE Jacob Breeland and backup QB Taylor Alie also being question marks while LB Kaulana Apelu is done for the year with a broken ankle.

True freshman Braxton Burmeister, a top recruit, will likely make his first career start. Alie was listed as an 'or' option if he can get cleared. Washington State had lost eight consecutive games against Oregon before an OT win in Eugene in '15 and pulled out a 51-33 rout in Pullman last season.

2. Miami at Florida State: Rescheduled due to Hurricane Irma, the optics look far different on October's first Saturday than they would have if this game had been played as originally scheduled on Sept. 16. While the 'Noles had already lost to Alabama, they were still the team in position to be the favorite, looking to battle back and run the table in order to get a rematch will the Crimson Tide in the national playoffs. As things stand now, they're a home underdog against the unbeaten 'Canes, coming off a fortunate win at Wake Forest after a home loss to N.C. State. True freshman James Blackman is talented, but has shown he's going to have to go through growing pains as he replaces injured sophomore Deondre Francois, who underwent season-ending surgery following the season opener.

The focus is now on the impressive-looking 'Canes, who dominated previously unbeaten Duke on a national stage last Friday night and impressively surged past Toledo in their first game following a two-week layoff due to the storms. If Miami wins this game, it will be favored in every game going forward barring any key injuries, setting up a clear path to the national semifinals provided it beats likely Atlantic Division rep Clemson in the ACC Championship. QB Malik Rosier has looked composed, while a defense stocked with athletes will look to take advantage of Blackman's inexperience in the latest chapter of one of the country's fiercest rivalries. The Hurricanes haven't defeated the 'Noles since 2009, but 13 of the last 15 games have all been decided by seven points or less. FSU will look to win its eight consecutive game over UM, which would clinch an all-time high in this series.

The Seminoles caught a major break when a Derwin James targeting call was overturned against Wake Forest, so they'll have their defensive heartbeat in place. MLB Ro'Derrick Hoskins missed the win at Wake with a nerve issue and is questionable. Electric WR Auden Tate should play despite a shoulder issue. The Canes will have their top offensive player, RB Mark Walton, after he appeared to hurt his ankle late in Friday's win over Duke.

3. Michigan State at Michigan: Speaking of unfriendly in-state feuds, the Spartans will play their Super Bowl as they take the field on the road for the first time in '17. Although they fell at home to Notre Dame and are reloading and not contending for cash and prizes, Sparty does come off an impressive win over Iowa and have nostalgia on their side given what transpired on their last visit to Ann Arbor. Everyone remembers the walk-off punt block TD that rescued a 27-23 result for Michigan State as Mark Dantonio ruined Jim Harbargh's debut in this rivalry.

The Wolverines got revenge in East Lansing last year, 32-23, controlling the action but failing to cover as a 25-point favorite. After opening as an 11-point chalk, the number has moved closer to two touchdowns early in the week. Michigan QB Wilton Speight, who entered the season as the starter but was knocked out of the Purdue game, will miss this contest. Houston transfer John O'Korn, who played well in the second half to help overcome the Boilermakers, gets another start, his second at Michigan. He struggled against Indiana in his only previous appearance as the starter, producing a 20-10 win despite going just 7-for-16 for 59 yards. After going 16-4 on the road from 2012-'16, Michigan State won only once in opposing stadiums last season and come in on a four-game losing streak.

4. Penn State at Northwestern: The Nittany Lions' regular-season schedule features a pair of six-game blocks separated by a bye week. This is the end of the first stage, a challenging visit to Evanston for a date with what might be their toughest opponent yet. Considering Penn State needed a last-second TD pass to survive at Iowa, those upset alert alarms should be working overtime. James Franklin is 0-2 against Pat Fitzgerald since arriving at Happy Valley, losing the last meeting 23-21 on a field goal with nine seconds left. Northwestern has never defeated Penn State three straight times.

Top RB Justin Jackson will have to produce more than he did against Wisconsin to pull off an upset. The Wildcats have averaged 23.5 rushing yards in their two losses and 229.5 in their wins, but those games have come against inferior competition. Their setbacks have come against teams that are combined 8-1, the Blue Devils and Badgers. Jackson is playing hurt, but Northwestern needs a big day from him to have a chance. Penn State RB Saquon Barkley has over 1,000 all-purpose yards through five games and eight TDs accounted for, keeping him in the thick of the Heisman chase. He'll have to deal with Wildcats DT Tyler Lancaster and a solid defense, but should be up for it behind a healthy offensive line. Coming out of next week's bye, Penn State will host Michigan before visiting Ohio State and Michigan State.

5. Alabama at Texas A&M: There don't appear many worthy challengers for the Crimson Tide to roll through in the SEC this season. They've humiliated previously unbeaten Vanderbilt and the team that has had the most success against them over the past few seasons, Ole Miss, by a combined margin of 125-3. After holding off Florida State in the season opener, the Crimson Tide left themselves open to criticism by failing to cover in home games against Fresno State and Colorado State, having the audacity to look less than dominant. No one is calling them out anymore.

The Aggies, undefeated through two conference games, are next up to take their shot at 'Bama, which has won 12 on consecutive SEC road trips. A&M could use a 12th man on the field as opposed to in the stands, but will look to make inroads behind talented true freshman dual threat QB Kellen Mond, who was pressed into duty when redshirt freshman Nick Starkel hurt his ankle and backup Jake Hubenak's throwing shoulder sidelined him. Mond has proven clutch in getting the job done down the stretch in wins over Arkansas and South Carolina, but will obviously face a different animal in an imposing Tide defense. Since Johnny Manziel helped the Ags win in Tuscaloosa back in 2012, Alabama has won four straight by a combined margin of 182-79. Texas A&M will field 29 freshmen and a number of other of first-time players getting a look at the conference heavyweight, so keeping this from becoming the bloodbath many expect could go a long way in determining Kevin Sumlin's future in College Station.

6. West Virginia at TCU: Defeating Oklahoma State in Stillwater has opened a world of possibilities for the Horned Frogs in a season where the Big 12 has gotten more respect than it has of late. While Oklahoma awaits for both of these schools, the Mountaineers look improved with Florida transfer QB Will Grier lighting up defenses. The Horned Frogs have already pulled off the biggest upset in league play to date and appear to have the defensive chops to match a high-powered offense.

Although Gary Patterson's program suffered its second losing season in a four-year span in '16, TCU did go 23-3 the prior two seasons and returned a lot of experienced talent. The team got to take a deep breath after their surprising win thanks to a bye week, so they should be well-prepared and won't have a hangover to deal with. West Virginia pulled away for a 34-10 win last year and won in Fort Worth in OT back in '13. Top RB Kyle Hicks missed the OSU win but should return to take some carries off Darius Anderson, a sophomore who ran for 160 yards in taking his place. Justin Crawford ranks second in the Big 12 in rushing yards for the Mountaineers, who are hoping standout DB Kyzir White is healthy enough to support LB Al-Rasheed Benton in helping slow down TCU QB Kenny Hill and help head coach Dana Holgorsen improve on a 5-15 mark against ranked competition.

7. Louisville at NC State: This is the best of the early weekday games, getting the college stage to itself opposite Pats/Bucs, the top Thursday NFL game since the K.C./New England season opener. With Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson in action, it was predictable that public money would come in on the Cardinals despite them being a 3-point home favorite. The line has moved to 4 in some spots and is now widely available at 3.5.

The 'Ville is 4-1, losing only to Clemson, but hasn't been challenged since suffering that 47-21 home loss, blowing out Kent State and Murray State by a combined margin of 97-13. They were over 40-point favorites in each game and failed to cover, but those were glorified scrimmages meant to prepare them for this one, a potential season-defining game for both of these programs. N.C. State has won four straight since a season-opening loss to South Carolina in Charlotte, have already defeated FSU and will host Clemson in November. The Wolfpack closes October at Notre Dame, so they have an opportunity to put together their most successful season since Philip Rivers led the program to 11 wins in 2002.

NC State has won only one of seven meetings between these schools -- the 2011 Belk Bowl -- and hasn't scored more than 18 points against the Cards in three losses under Dave Doeren. With safety Dexter Wright set to play the NCSU defense is healthy enough to give itself a shot at containing Jackson, but need QB Ryan Finley to do his part in moving the offense. Louisville has major injury concerns, but will most of their banged-up players back, including OG Kenny Thomas and DT Drew Bailey to strengthen both fronts. Top corner Jaire Alexander may miss a fourth straight game, while No. 1 WR Jaylen Smith is also likely out.

8. Stanford at Utah: Cardinal RB Bryce Love ran for 301 yards at Arizona State on Saturday and is already up to 1,088 rushing yards through five games, scoring each time out while averaging 11.7 yards per carry. He's made suggestions that Stanford would be unable to replace Christian McCaffrey laughable, but the perennial Pac-12 power has nonetheless dropped two of their first five games for the second straight year. Stanford went 7-1 to close out 2016, but will be hard-pressed to be as successful since they still have to visit Washington State while hosting Oregon, Washington and Notre Dame following this challenging visit to Salt Lake City.

The Utes are the only South Division member and non-Washington-based school without a loss in Pac-12 play, but they've only played at Arizona. They're coming off a bye, which you have to consider as a major factor since Kyle Whittingham is 19-5 with a week off to prepare and has a 10-1 mark in home games, further indication that he's not someone you want to deal with when he has sufficient time to game plan for you. Utah is also 12-3 in its last 15 home games thanks to a great environment at Rice-Eccles Stadium and owns three straight wins in this series, last losing in '95. Shaw is 0-2 against Whittingham, losing the last meeting in 2OT in Palo Alto back in '14.

Senior QB Troy Williams will be making his first start after taking over for an injured Tyler Huntley to lead the Utes to a win in Tuscon. Redshirt freshman K.J. Costello comes off his first start for Stanford and will likely get the call again despite junior Keller Chryst being cleared after a concussion. The expectation is that both should play, while TE Dalton Schultz and WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside may be unable to go. For Utah, top DE Kylie Fitts (leg) is doubtful and LB Kavika Luafatasaga (foot) is questionable.

9. Wisconsin at Nebraska: The Huskers come off a 9-4 season and have opened 2-0 in Big Ten play after losing to Oregon and Northern Illinois, but they're a double-digit home underdog for the first time since 2008, which should clue you in on how Year 3 of the Mike Riley era in Lincoln is going. This could be a game-changer for Nebraska, which fired AD Shawn Eichorst following the NIU loss and appears to be open to moving on from Riley. With Ohio State coming into town next week -- almost certain to be a double-digit favorite too -- showing up here is essential. It's not encouraging that there are injury concerns throughout the defense in addition to the Huskers potentially being without their top two rushers, Tre Bryant (knee) and Mikale Wilbon (ankle). A larger workload for physically gifted junior Devine Ozigbo isn't necessarily a bad thing, but will test his stamina and likely prove detrimental down the stretch.

The Badgers won their visit to BYU 40-6, running their record to 12-1 over their last 13 true road games. The lone loss came at No. 4 Michigan last season, and they've won at Nebraska on this run. Wisconsin has won four straight over the 'Huskers dating back to a 70-31 Big Ten Championship win back in '12. Kicker Rafael Gaglianone won the '15 game 23-21 on a 46-yarder with four seconds left, while last year's game went OT. Tight end Troy Fumagalli, out last week against Northwestern, would be a key absence if he can't get back in the mix.

10. Georgia at Vanderbilt: The Commodores overcame their 59-0 home loss to Alabama by playing Florida tight in Gainesville despite running out of gas and surrendering the cover. We'll see whether they've got enough energy for what promises to be a fourth straight physical contest after opening this grueling stretch with a 14-7 win over Kansas State. It's homecoming in Nashville, where Vandy will attempt to beat Georgia in consecutive years for the first time since 1958.

The Dawgs are the SEC's only unbeaten team besides mighty 'Bama, coming off dominant wins against Mississippi State and Tennessee by a combined margin of 72-3. Opponents are averaging 9.2 points per game against Kirby Smart's defense, but their depth will be tested since top DL Trenton Thompson is out a few weeks with a sprained right MCL. Georgia has the talent to replace him and is also hoping senior LB Reggie Carter can shake off an injury and play as it looks for its first 6-0 start since 2005.

11. Wake Forest at Clemson: A dangerous trip to Blacksburg brought the best out of the Tigers again last week. The defending champs managed to keep marquee games against Auburn and Louisville from being competitive and played from ahead again at Virginia Tech, controlling the action defensively while grinding out yardage and wearing out the Hokies on defense as QB Kelly Bryant continued to impress. Clemson is 4-1 ATS, failing to cover only against Boston College, who fought to a 7-7 tie through three quarters before being blown out 27-0 in the fourth.

The Demon Deacons were even with FSU at 19 in the fourth before surrendering a late touchdown to suffer their first loss, but there's no question this is the most talented team Dave Clawson has put together. Wake is seeking consecutive bowl bids for the first time since '07 and '08, which is the last time it beat Clemson, back in Dabo Swinney's first season. Swinney is 3-0 against Clawson, but the Deacs have covered all three times.

12. LSU at Florida: This matchup barely made this list, which is another reminder that preseason expectations mean little in college football. Barely a month in, these perennial SEC powers are a combined 6-3, with the Tigers coming off a home loss to Troy as a 20-point favorite. The Gators are the only 3-0 in SEC play, overcoming massive attrition due to suspensions and injuries. Although they've persevered, no one can call their wins over Tennessee, Kentucky and Vandy impressive. Resilient would be a more fitting description.

The Tigers may struggle to become bowl eligible if they fall to 3-3 here given their remaining schedule, so we'll see whether they're as feisty as Florida. Top WR Antonio Callaway has been suspended all season, so it's bad news that big-play threat Tyrie Cleveland, UF's top receiver, is sidelined with a high ankle sprain. Fellow sophomores John Hammond and Freddie Swain will be asked to step up to try and make life easier for redshirt freshman Feleipe Franks, who takes over for an injured Luke Del Rio. LSU gets a number of key defensive players who missed the Troy game back in addition to the return of top RB Derrius Guice, who also sat with a knee issue. The Gators snapped a three-game losing streak in the series with a 16-10 win in Baton Rouge last season.

Others: Kansas State at Texas, Maryland at Ohio State, Cal at Washington, Air Force at Navy, Minnesota at Purdue, Notre Dame at North Carolina, Arkansas at South Carolina, SMU at Houston, Arizona at Colorado, Ole Miss at Auburn, Iowa State at Oklahoma, Duke at Virginia.

Posted : October 4, 2017 12:12 pm

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The Dozen: Cougs look for more
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Much like last week, top teams will be looking to avoid upsets as the first Saturday in October unfolds. Here are the games that should most command your attention:

7. Louisville at NC State: This is the best of the early weekday games, getting the college stage to itself opposite Pats/Bucs, the top Thursday NFL game since the K.C./New England season opener. With Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson in action, it was predictable that public money would come in on the Cardinals despite them being a 3-point road favorite. The line has moved to 4 in some spots and is now widely available at 3.5.

Posted : October 5, 2017 11:07 am

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ACC Report - Week 6
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Wake Forest at Clemson

The Tigers became the first team to record three wins against a Top 15 team before Oct. 1 when they went to Blackburg and handled Virginia Tech. Can the Tigers bring that kind of intensity to the field in what might be a letdown game against such high emotions? Vegas seems to think so, installing the Tigers are 22-point favorites. Wake took its first loss at home, as FSU came from behind to top the Deacs. Still, Wake is 6-1-1 ATS in their past eight ACC games, 4-1-1 ATS in their past six overall and 7-2 ATS in their past nine on the road. However, the defending national champs are 5-0 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their past five battles in Death Valley.

Duke at Virginia

The Blue Devils took it on the chin against Miami at home last weekend, suffering their first loss of the 2017 season. Meanwhile, the last time we saw UVA they were pulling off an impressive 42-23 victory on the Smurf Turf at Boise State, winning outright as a 13 1/2-point underdog. After a 34-17 loss at home to Indiana the Cavaliers are 2-0 SU/ATS while winning by an average of 19.5 PPG. The Blue Devils are still 4-1 ATS this season despite last week's non-cover, and they're 11-5 ATS in their past 16 road outings. Virginia is 2-5 ATS in their past seven at home and 0-4 ATS in their past four ACC outings. However, they're 8-2 ATS in their past 10 following a bye week. Duke has managed a 7-3 ATS mark in the past 10 in this series, while the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings.

Pittsburgh at Syracuse

The Panthers hit the road for upstate New York looking to take down the Orange. They're looking to carry over the momentum after Max Browne and company thrashed Rice in a non-conference battle. Pitt is looking to maintain their mastery over Syracuse, as they have won 13 of the past 15 in this series. The Panthers are 5-2-1 ATS in the past eight in this series, while the underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The under has hit in four of the past five, too. The under is a recurring theme for Syracuse, too, going 7-0 in the past seven home games for the Orange and 7-1 in their past eight conference tilts. The under is 4-1-1 in Pittsburgh's past six overall.

Miami-Florida at Florida State

The Hurricanes and Seminoles renew their rivalry in Tallahassee, a game originally scheduled for Sept. 16. However, the game was pushed back due to Hurricane Irma. Miami is trying to prove that it is back after years of mediocrity, and finally slaying their rivals would be another feather in their cap. FSU has been a hurdle Miami hasn't been able to get over, with the 'Noles winning seven straight in the Jimbo Fisher era, including three games by five points or fewer. Florida State has struggled all season, but especially so since Deondre Francois went down with a season-ending injury. That has thrust true freshman James Blackman into a starting role. So far, the results have been mixed.

Miami enters this game on a five-game cover streak inside the conference, while going 7-1 ATS in their past eight games overall dating back to last season. They're also 5-2 ATS in the past seven on the road, while FSU is 3-1-1 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning overall mark. The underdog has cashed in 15 of the past 18 meetings, while the road team is 9-2 ATS in the past 11 in this series. The under is a perfect 6-0 in the past six in this rivalry, while going 4-0 in Miami's past four road games and 5-1 in FSU's past six overall.

Notre Dame at North Carolina

The Irish hit the road for Chapel Hill looking to kick the Tar Heels while they're down. UNC had a lot of holes to fill on the offensive side of the ball, and a bevy of injuries has really put them behind the 8-ball. They enter this game as more than a two-touchdown underdog at home against the No. 22 team in the land. The Irish are 4-1 ATS in their past five inside the ACC and 11-4 ATS in the past 15 in October. However, they are a dismal 1-6 ATS in their past seven against teams with a losing overall record. UNC enters 5-1 ATS over their past six against ACC foes, while going 20-6 ATS in the past 26 at home against teams with a winning record. However, most of that damage came with much better UNC squads.

Virginia Tech at Boston College

Virginia Tech looks to pick themselves up off the mat and get back into the win column after being dusted by Clemson last week. The Hokies, while a fine team, proved their not quite ready for prime time, at least not yet. Boston College stepped out of conference and stepped on Central Michigan 28-8. BC might want to consider a move to the MAC, as they're 2-0 SU against Mid-American Conference teams and 0-3 SU against everyone else. The 'under' continues to hit for the Eagles, going 4-1 in their five outings this season. The under is 7-3 in the past 10 road outings, while going 19-8 in their past 27 ACC battles. The under is also 13-3 in their past 16 games in October.

Bye Week

Georgia Tech

Posted : October 6, 2017 7:00 am

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Big Ten Report - Week 6
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Penn State (-15) at Northwestern

Northwestern played a great first half last week at Wisconsin and took a 10-7 lead to the break. The Badgers scored the next 24 points to pull away but the Cats didn’t quit. They scored two TD’s in a 2:00 minute span late in the 4th quarter to make a game of it before coming up short 33-24. The Cats really struggled to run the ball gaining only 25 yards on 34 carries. Part of that was due to the fact that star RB Justin Jackson was injured. He played in the game (only 9 carries) but didn’t practice much during the week. This isn’t a new problem as they have been held to less than 26 yards rushing in 2 of their 4 games this season. They rank 13th in the Big Ten running the ball (126 YPG) and that includes their huge 303 yard rushing performance against a terrible Bowling Green defense that ranks 117th nationally in rush defense.

NW will have to find a way to score points here. Against the two solid defenses they’ve faced, the offense has struggled to put the ball in the endzone. Against Duke they scored 17 points and last week it was 24 points, however 14 of those came very late in the 4th quarter when the game looked out of reach. Against a PSU team that is 2nd in the Big Ten in scoring at 41 PPG, points are a must

A win here would put Penn State at 6-0 for the first time since 2008. The Nittany Lions didn’t wait long last week to jump on Indiana outscoring them 28-0 in the first quarter including returning the opening kickoff for a TD and a fumble return for a TD. IU hung tough in the 2nd quarter and actually went into half down just 28-14 after trailing 28-0 after one quarter. The Nits defense held the Hoosiers scoreless in the 2nd half and won going away 45-14 getting the easy cover.

In the surprising stat of the day, PSU had only 39 yards rushing on 37 attempts and that’s with the nation’s top RB Barkley lining up in the backfield. Barkley averaged only 2.8 YPC in the game which was the 3rd lowest YPC total of his career. Interestingly enough, this Hoosier defense held Barkley to 1.8 YPC in last year’s meeting which was the 2nd lowest total of his career. For the game, IU outrushed Penn State 177 to 39. If you would have shown us those numbers before the game started, you can bet we would have had a very large play on Indiana. Keep an eye on TE Gesicki this week as he was injured in last week’s game and is one of QB McSorely’s favorite targets.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – PSU continued on their pointspread roll covering again. They are now 12-1-1 ATS their last 14 games. The Lions are 13-5 SU in this series but Northwestern has won the last 2 meetings in 2014 & 2015. The Cats have been an underdog in 17 of the 18 games in this series with the exception being their game in 2001. The last time NW pulled an outright upset as a home dog of 14 or more was way back in 1991 when they topped Illinois 17-11 as a 21-point dog.

Illinois at Iowa (-18)

The Illini offense continues to look flat out bad. They scored just 6 points last Friday night vs Nebraska (28-6 loss) and they rank dead last in the Big Ten in scoring offense (17 PPG) and total offense (267 YPG). Not only are they last in total offense, they are last in rushing AND last in passing in the Big Ten. Nothing is working on that side of the ball for Illinois. QB Chayce Crouch has thrown only 1 TD pass the entire season and has been held to 145 passing or less in all four games, including throwing for less than 100 yards twice. Because of those struggles, head coach Lovie Smith has decided to make a switch at the all important QB position.

Jeff George Jr will get the starting on Iowa. George has played in just one game this season and looked OK throwing for 211 yards and a TD in the 2nd half vs USF. On the other side of the ball it isn’t much better. In fact, Illinois ranks dead last in the Big Ten in total defense as well. They’ve done a decent job, despite giving up a ton of yards, at keeping teams out of the endzone. Three of their four opponents have been “held” to 28 points or less which isn’t terrible when you’re allowing nearly 430 YPG.

Iowa has had back to back grueling losses. Two weeks ago they played host to PSU and the Nittany Lions drove the length of the field and scored a TD as time expired to beat the Hawks 21-19. Last week they traveled to Michigan State and were upended 17-10. Down 17-7 at half, the Hawkeyes had a few shots on the second half but coughed up a fumble at the MSU 5-yard line and the MSU 38-yard line and settled for a FG on another drive. It was an ugly offensive game with the two teams combining for just 526 total yards on 4.2 yards per play. Iowa’s defense has been very solid, however their offense continues to be as inconsistent as they come.

They are now 0-2 in the Big Ten with the offense scoring 19 & 10 points and they haven’t topped 275 yards in either of those two games. They have a grand total of 22 first downs in their two Big Ten games. Iowa’s rushing attack, which was supposed to be a strength with an experienced offensive line along with RB Wadley who had 1,100 yards rushing last year. It hasn’t been as Wadley had 17 carries for just 30 yards last week vs MSU. A week earlier he had 18 carries for 80 yards vs PSU however 35 of those yards came on one carry with just over 1:00 minute remaining in the game. With an inexperienced QB who isn’t a great passer, Iowa better figure out their running game quickly.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Last year Iowa traveled to Champaign as an 8-point favorite and crushed Illinois 28-0 holding them to less than 200 yards of total offense. This has been a low scoring series with each of the last 10 meetings ending with a final point total of 51 or less. This total is set at 43.5 as of Tuesday. Illinois has covered only 8 of their last 25 road games dating back to the 2011 season. The last time the Illini won in Iowa City was back in 1999. Since 1990, Iowa has been a favorite of 14 or more four times in this series and they are 3-1 ATS in those games.

Minnesota at Purdue (-3)

Minnesota, under the direction of new head coach PJ Fleck, came into last week’s game at home vs Maryland with a perfect 3-0 record. Now granted, those three wins vs Buffalo, Oregon St, and MTSU, were against teams that currently have a combined 4-9 record vs other FBS teams. Last week in their Big Ten opener the Gophs were stomped by Maryland and lost 31-24 as a double digit favorite. The game wasn’t as close as the final score and Minnesota, who came into the game with the best rush defense in the nation, couldn’t stop the Terps on the ground.

Maryland RB Ty Johnson averaged 7.7 YPC in the game and the Terps hit Minny for 262 yards rushing. Not bad against a team that had been allowing only 59 YPG rushing. The Minnesota offense is hard to get a great read on. They haven’t been great by any means. Their rushing attack has been up and down and their QB Rhoda is just OK. They rank 11th in the Big Ten in total offense (367 YPG) yet they haven’t faced a defense currently ranked higher than 47th nationally in total defense.

The Boilers had an extra week to stew over their home loss to Michigan two weeks ago. It was a game in which they hung around for a while and actually led 10-7 at half. The Wolverines wore the Boilers down in the 2nd half en route to a 28-10 win. Despite their week off, Purdue is fairly banged up heading into this game. Their starting QB David Blough has a bad shoulder and hasn’t yet been cleared for this game.

Leading rusher Tario Fuller is a longshot to play this weekend with an ankle injury. RB Markell Jones, who was going to be the starter this year, has been out all season but does have a shot to play in this one. They will also be without starting linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley and starting safety Jacob Thieneman for the first half against the Gophers. They were each ejected for targeting in the 2nd half of the Michigan game. The Boilermakers are obviously improved under new head coach Jeff Brohm coming in with a 2-2 record. Their losses came at the hands of Louisville and Michigan, two of the better teams in the country.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Minnesota is and impressive 15-5-3 ATS in their last 23 road games and 20-9-3 ATS in their last 32 Big Ten roadies. The favorite in this Big Ten series is 11-4-1 ATS the last 15 meetings. This has been a high scoring series with just 4 of the last 21 meetings falling below 50 combined points. Only 7 of those 21 games have fallen under 60 points. Saturday’s opening total was set at 49.

Maryland at Ohio State (-31)

The Terps aren’t getting much respect here coming off a big upset win over the previously undefeated Minnesota Gophers. After beating Minny 31-24 on the road, Maryland is now tabbed as a whopping 31-point dog at Ohio State this Saturday. The Terps come in with a 3-1 record including an impressive 10-point win at Texas to open the season. That win looks even better as we progress through the season as the Longhorns are looking like a very solid team.

Maryland’s lone loss was to a very good UCF team and the Terps just happened to lose their then starting QB Hill in the first quarter of that game. Hill was in because the QB who was under center to begin the season, Tyrell Pigrome, was injured late in the Texas game and lost for the season. Now with Hill also out for the season it’s up to 3rd stringer Max Bortenschlager. If last week is any indication, the Terrapins look like they are in decent hands. Bortenschlager had 2 passing TD’s, 1 rushing TD, and didn’t turn the ball over in their win vs Minnesota. He also has a very solid running game to support him as they are 3rd in the Big Ten averaging 233 YPG on the ground. Last week they put up 262 yards on the ground vs a Minnesota defense that came into the game ranked #1 in the NATION in rush defense.

On the flip side, the Maryland defense held Minnesota to just 80 yards on the ground. It was Maryland’s 2nd outright win this year as a double digit underdog (at Texas was the other). They were just 1-26 SU their previous 27 games as a double digit dog entering the season.

Just like clockwork, the Buckeyes continue to destroy Rutgers on the football field each and every season. Entering last week’s game vs the Scarlet Knights, the Buckeyes had won all 3 games (since Rutgers joined the Big Ten) in blowout fashion outscoring them by a combined 163-24! OSU walloped Rutgers again 56-0 last week so you can now make that combined score 219-24 over the last 4 seasons! Not much to see here. The Bucks obviously dominated rolling up 628 yards to just 209 for Rutgers. If you subtract OSU’s final possession of the game where they simply took a knee, the Buckeyes scored on 8 of their 13 possessions and were shut out on downs deep in Rutgers territory on another. The Knights, on the other hand, punted on 9 of their 13 possessions and threw interceptions on 2 others. With that win the Buckeyes have now won 42 of their last 45 Big Ten games.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – These two have met 3 times since Maryland joined the league and OSU has won all three by an average score of 44-18. Last year’s meeting was a whitewashing as OSU won 62-3 at Maryland. OSU is just 5-14 ATS their last 19 home games. Buckeyes are only 1-7 ATS the last 8 times they’ve been tabbed a favorite of 30 or more.

Michigan State at Michigan

Sparty bounced back nicely last week and topped Iowa in their Big Ten opener after getting whipped on the scoreboard by Notre Dame a week earlier. MSU topped the Hawkeyes 17-10 scoring all 17 of their points in the first half. That included two TD’s in the first quarter and 121 of the Spartans 300 total yardage came in that first quarter. MSU had only 4 second half possessions and those included a missed FG, getting shut out on downs at the Iowa 30 yard line, and a punt from the Iowa 40 yard line. So they did have chances to extend the margin and put points on the board in the 2nd half but didn’t take advantage of them. The Spartan offense continues to struggle however putting up just 35 points over their last 2 games. They’ve put up only 4 offensive TD’s in their games vs Notre Dame & Iowa.

Defensively they are playing very well. They held the Hawkeyes to just 3.9 YPP and held a very potent Notre Dame offense semi in check with just 355 total yards. Their efforts through the first 4 games has the MSU defense ranked 5th nationally in total defense allowing 248 YPG. Now facing a Michigan offense that simply hasn’t been playing all that well, the Spartan defense will have a chance to shine again this Saturday. Believe it or not, this win gave Michigan State a 3-1 record on the season which actually matches their win total for all of last season.

Michigan had a bye last week giving them extra time to get ready for this huge rivalry game. The Wolverines will be without starting QB Wilton Speight for at least a few weeks so John O’Korn will handle the duties under center this Saturday. O’Korn is a senior who played the 2013 & 2014 seasons at Houston where he had nearly 700 pass attempts, obviously has plenty of experienced. He also stepped in two weeks ago vs Purdue when Speight was injured in the first quarter. O’Korn was 18 for 26 with 270 yards through the air and a TD in that game. Perhaps he can pump some life into a Michigan offense that has been subpar at best.

Versus Purdue the Wolverines were 3 for 3 scoring TD’s in the redzone with O’Korn at the helm after going just 1 for 10 in that stat in their previous 3 games. The defense isn’t a problem. They continue to play outstanding. Two weeks ago they held the Boilers to 10 points including keeping them off the board completely over the final 36 minutes of the game. They lead the Big Ten in total defense allowing 203 YPG on just 3.5 YPP. They are one of just 7 teams nationally allowing less than 4.0 YPP. They have allowed a grand total of 4 offensive TD’s in 4 games.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Michigan has won 7 of the last 9 meeting outright, however MSU has covered ALL 9 of those games. Going all the way back to 1982, the Spartans are 22-12-2 ATS vs their in-state rival Wolverines. The last four times Michigan has played host in this series, they’ve lost 3 of those 4 games outright. Since November of 2006, Michigan State is 31-18-1 ATS in road games. This is their first road game this season.

Wisconsin (-11.5) at Nebraska

With the exception of their game at BYU, the Badgers continue to get off to slow starts. Last week was no exception as they played host to Northwestern and trailed 10-7 at half. In earlier games vs inferior opponents they led Florida Atlantic just 21-14 with only a few seconds remaining in the first half and they were tied at 10 with Utah State at half. Despite struggling in the first half vs Northwester, Wisconsin then came out in the 2nd half and scored 24 consecutive points to pull ahead 31-10. NW scored on a few late drives to make things interesting but the Badgers came away with the 33-24 win. They outgained the Wildcats 306 to 244 despite running 22 fewer offensive plays. They played the game without one of their top receiving targets as TE Fumagalli who was out with a hamstring injury. He hopes to be back for this game.

Despite their first half problems, the Badgers have dominated this year in the 2nd half outscoring their opponents 98-14. The Badgers are one of three remaining Big Ten unbeaten teams along with Penn State and Michigan. They are 2nd in the league in YPG differential at +212 (Ohio State is first at +229). They are also 2nd in the Big Ten in per game point differential at +27 (PSU is first at +33).

The Huskers have had an extra day to get ready for this huge night game after winning at Illinois last Friday night. They rolled over the Illini 28-6 holding them to just 199 yards on 53 plays. In the Nebraska defense has allowed just 1 offensive TD in their two Big Ten games. Going back even further, they have given up only 2 offensive TD’s in their last three games. However, some perspective might be needed here as their two Big Ten games were against Rutgers & Illinois who rank 13th & 14th respectively in the conference in scoring (non-conference games included).

Offensively they looked much better partly because they didn’t give the ball away. QB Tanner Lee had thrown 9 interceptions this season coming into their game vs the Illini. He didn’t have a turnover against Illinois and threw 3 TD’s. With their win last Friday the Huskers sit alone in first place in the Big Ten West at 2-0. However, the Badgers have owned Nebraska and the Big Ten West as of late. In fact, these two have met 6 times since the Huskers joined the Big Ten and Wisky has won 5 of those meetings. The only Nebraska win in this series was here in 2012 by just 3 points.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Nebraska is 46-5 all time at home in night games including 20 consecutive wins. Wisconsin is 17-5 ATS their last 22 road games. The Huskers have been a home underdog of 10 or more just TWICE since 1980! They are 0-2 SU & ATS in those games vs USC & Missouri. The Badgers have been a road favorite of 10 or more 23 times since the start of the 1999 season. They are 8-15 ATS in those contests.

Posted : October 6, 2017 7:03 am

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Big 12 Report - Week 6
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Iowa State at Oklahoma

The Cyclones head down to Norman looking to avoid their second straight league setback, but it's going to be awfully tough. They're a four-touchdown underdog to the high-flying Sooners. Iowa State enters the game 5-1 ATS over the past six against teams with a winning record, and they're 10-4 ATS in their past 14 games overall. However, they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five against Oklahoma, and 1-5 ATS in their past six sojourns to Norman. The 'over' is also an impressive 4-1 in the past five in this series. For Oklahoma, the 'over' is 21-9-1 in their past 31 Big 12 contests, while the over has hit in 10 of the past 14 for Iowa State, 10 of the past 14 league games and five of their past six against winning teams.

Texas Tech at Kansas

The Red Raiders roll into Lawrence looking to bounce back after a 41-34 loss against Oklahoma State last weekend. It was cover for the Red Raiders, who are a perfect 4-0 ATS so far this season. Unlike years past, the 'under' is 3-1 for the Red Raiders, as their defense has been slightly better than past years, although allowing 32.5 PPG isn't exactly shutdown - ha. The cover record for Texas Tech is a stark contrast to Kansas, as they're 1-3 ATS so far this season, and potentially 0-4 ATS at some shops. They covered a 23 1/2-point number last week, but some places had it at 21 1/2, some had it as a push, etc. What wasn't close is another 'over' cashing for the Jayhawks, as the over is now a perfect 4-0 on the season for KU. The Red Raiders have dominated this series lately, going 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings and 5-2 ATS in their past seven trips to Lawrence.

West Virginia at Texas Christian

The Mountaineers are back in action for the first time since Sept. 23, a well-rested bunch for sure. Byes haven't been kind to the Mountaineers, at least against the number, as Dana Holgorsen's bunch is just 2-10 ATS over their past 12 following a bye week. TCU is also well rested, getting to enjoy the past two weeks since their impressive win over Oklahoma State vaulted them back into the national picture. Unlike West Virginia, they're solid coming out of a bye, going 19-7 ATS in the past 26 following a week of rest. However, TCU has struggled against the number at home, going just 1-10 ATS in their past 11 in Fort Worth. Total bettors might be a big fan of the 'under' this week. While the over is 3-0-1 in West Virginia's past four, the under is 5-1 in their past six after a bye, 16-5 in their past 21 against winning teams and 20-7 in their past 27 league games. The under is 6-2 in TCU's past eight Big 12 battles, although the over is 15-6 in their past 21 following a bye.

Kansas State at Texas

The Wildcats looked impressive at times last week against Baylor, especially on offense, but they also allowed the Bears to hang around and make a game of it with some mental lapses. They can ill afford that against Texas in a road game. After a stunning loss to open the season against Maryland, Texas has been much better of late. They took USC to overtime before falling in the Coliseum on Sept. 16, and they won their league opener at Iowa State by 10 last Thursday, improving to 3-0 ATS over their past three games. A big reason for their turnaround has been defense, as they're allowing just 11.3 PPG over the past three - all under results. The under is a perfect 4-0 in the past four in this series, and 5-1 in the past six battles in Austin. The Wildcats have covered eight of the past 10 in the series, but the home team is a perfect 5-0 ATS over the past five battles.

Bye Week

Baylor, Oklahoma State

Posted : October 6, 2017 7:04 am

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Pac-12 Report - Week 6
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Oregon State at Southern California

It's been a tough season for the Beaves, who haven't tasted victory against an FBS team this season while failing to cover in any of their five outings. While the cover situation is up in the air, the losing ways do not appears to be ending soon with a trip to USC on tap. The Beavers will face an angry Trojans team that was upset in Pullman against an upstart Washington State side last weekend. The Beavs have had some success inside the conference, however, going 7-3 ATS over their past 10, but they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five trips to USC. The home team is also 8-2 ATS in the past 10 in this series. USC has also hit against the number in six of their past six league games while going 4-0 ATS in their past four against teams with a losing overall mark. The under has cashed in five of the past six meetings between the schools.

Washington State at Oregon

What can the Cougars do for an encore? They made national headlines with their victory at home last weekend against USC, but face another tough test on the road against Oregon. Washington State rolls in with three straight covers, and they're averaging 43.5 PPG over their past four outings. The defense has been a big improvement, too, allowing just 27 points to a powerful USC offense, and 19.0 PPG over the past three outings. As a result, the 'under' has hit in each of their past two. For Oregon, a feel-good start was tarnished in Tempe with a loss at Arizona State, 37-35, back on Sept. 23. The Ducks are still 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS while alternating covers and non-covers in all five outings. If you believe in patterns, they're due for a non-cover this weekend. Oregon's offense hasn't been a problem, as they've posted 35 or more points in all five games, and 42 or more in each of their four victories.

Arizona at Colorado

The Wildcats take on the Buffaloes in Boulder in a key game in the South Divison. If either side has any hope of a participating in the conference title game, neither can afford a loss. In fact, an 0-2 in the league, Colorado's chances are already rather bleak. The Buffs figure to play with some desperation, and that's bad news for a Wildcats side which is just 4-14 ATS in the past 18 overall, 1-7 ATS in the past eight road games and 1-8 ATS in the past nine conference tilts. Colorado has rattled off six consecutive covers in the month of October and they're 9-4 ATS in the past 13 confernce games. However, they're just 2-6 ATS across the past eight overall, and 1-5 ATS in the past six Pac-12 battles. The road team has hit in each of the past five in this series, with the over cashing in five of the past six.

Stanford at Utah

Stanford has the run game cooking, as Bryce Love isn't making people forget about Christian McCaffrey, but he is making the transition very, very easy. He is already up to 1,000 rushing yards through just five games, as he has run roughshod over opponents all season. It's not terribly hard to understand or comprehend how this team lost at USC back on Sept. 9, as they're both good teams. And San Diego State is decent, but how did this Cardinal team lose two in a row with Love thrashing opponents? Over the past two outings this offense is averaging 46.0 PPG, and the defense is allowing a respectable 23.2 PPG. The Cardinal are just 1-3 ATS over the past four, while the 'under' has split in two true road games. For Utah, Kyle Whittingham continues to just reload. They lost standout RB Joe Williams (love that name!) to the NFL, no problem. The Utes are 4-0 SU/ATS and haven't missed a beat. Over the past two outings they're averaging 47.0 PPG, and the defense has been adequate in allowing just 17.3 PPG in four outings. The 'under' is 3-1 so far for the Utes.

California at Washington

The Bears opened the season with a 3-0 mark, but they've dropped their first two conference games to take a little luster off of their impressive start. Losses at home to USC and at Oregon are certainly not an embarrassment, but an 0-3 start in the conference would be a problem. That's exactly what Vegas is thinking will happen, as the Huskies are a four-touchdown favorite. Is that too high? Well, Washington did put it on Cal by a 66-27 count last season. The Huskies are playing great ball again this season, but has anyone noticed? Chris Petersen talked this week about how Washington is always scheduled for later games and the national media and fans never get to see his team. Well, they're 5-0 SU and 3-1 ATS over the past four, posting 47.5 PPG over the past four outings, including 42.3 PPG over their past three against FBS teams. Last season's meeting was a rare 'over' result, as the 'under' had hit in the previous seven in the series.

Bye Week

Arizona State, UCLA

Posted : October 6, 2017 7:06 am

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SEC Report - Week 6
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Florida (3-1 straight up, 1-3 against the spread) has suddenly won three in a row and it took the cash in last week’s 38-24 win over Vanderbilt as a nine-point home favorite. The 62 combined points soared ‘over’ the 40-point total. Junior quarterback Luke Del Rio was lost for the season to a broken collarbone that required surgery on Monday, but redshirt freshman Feleipe Franks completed 10-of-14 throws for 185 yards in relief.

UF true freshman RB Malik Davis rushed for 124 yards and two TDs, including a 39-yard scamper on a fourth-and-one play with 1:42 remaining to give the Gators the frontdoor cover. Vandy had been in front of the number for the first three quarters until UF sophomore RB Lamical Perine had a one-yard TD plunge with 14:18 remaining in the final stanza. The Commodores appeared on the verge of a backdoor cover when Kyle Shurmur hit Nathan Marcus for a seven-yard scoring strike to pull within 31-24 with 3:14 left.

But Davis’s TD gave gamblers on the Gators a fortunate winner, especially when you saw Jim McElwain’s reaction to the score. The third-year UF coach had clearly communicated that he wanted his back to go down if he earned the first down in order to run the clock out from there.

While Florida finally enjoyed a taste of some offensive production, LSU (3-2 SU, 1-3-1 ATS) was doing nothing of the sort. The Tigers, who were 20.5-point home ‘chalk’ vs. Troy, couldn’t generate anything early on and trailed the Trojans 10-0 at intermission. Some may remember in 2008 when Troy went into Tiger Stadium and held a 31-3 lead early in the third quarter, only to see it evaporate in a 40-31 loss.

That would not be the case this time around. Jordan Chunn’s one-yard TD dash early in the third put Troy up 17-0. Trailing 24-7 in the fourth quarter, LSU’s Josh Anderson scored on a seven-yard TD scamper. Danny Etling found Foster Moreau for a 20-yard scoring strike to cut the deficit to 24-21, but there was only 1:59 remaining. The Trojans held to collect the upset victory in Baton Rouge, prompting an avalanche of criticism at Ed Orgeron.

What had to be most disconcerting for Orgeron and the restless LSU fan base was the inability to stop Troy’s ground attack. Chunn, who was first-team All Sun-Belt selection in 2016, rushed 30 times for 191 yards and one TD. LSU committed four turnovers and went 0-for-9 on third-down conversion attempts.

In fairness, LSU was without star RB Derrius Guice, who has been limited in the last three games but was upgraded to ‘probable’ at UF after practicing at full speed on Wednesday. The line was up to six in favor of Florida on Sunday night, but that changed early Monday after McElwain informed the media that star WR Tyrie Cleveland was ‘doubtful’ with a high-ankle sprain.

This news quickly moved the spread down to 3.5 and when Cleveland was officially ruled ‘out’ Wednesday night, the line moved south of the key number of three down to 2.5, where it was as of late Thursday. The total was 45 or 45.5, while the Tigers were +120 on the money line (risk $100 to win $120).

The loss of Cleveland is a big blow for the Gators, who are 5-5-1 ATS as home favorites on McElwain’s watch. Cleveland has 15 receptions for 326 yards and two TDs.

LSU is in revenge mode after dropping a 16-10 decision to UF as a 14-point favorite in Baton Rouge last season. The loss snapped a three-game winning streak over the Gators, who celebrated clinching the SEC East on the field of Tiger Stadium following an epic goal-line stand to end the game.

CBS will provide the telecast from The Swamp at 3:30 p.m. Eastern. There was an 80 percent chance of rain as of Thursday, so the weather will likely be a factor.

Besides top-ranked Alabama, Georgia (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) is the only other unbeaten SEC school. The Bulldogs own wins vs. Appalachian State (31-10), at Notre Dame (20-19), vs. Samford (42-14), vs. Mississippi State (31-3) and at Tennessee (41-0). They’ve accomplished that in Kirby Smart’s second season despite the fact that starting QB Jacob Eason went down with a sprained knee in the first quarter of the opener.

Eason’s injury forced true freshman Jake Fromm to grow up quickly, but that’s exactly what he’s done. The numbers aren’t eye-popping and he has certainly made some mistakes, but Fromm has mostly played with the poise of a veteran like few true freshman are capable of doing. He has completed 50-of-84 passes (59.5%) for 734 yards with an 8/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has also rushed for a pair of scores.

UGA will put its undefeated record on the line Saturday against Vanderbilt at noon Eastern in Nashville. As of Thursday, most books had the Bulldogs installed as 17.5-point road favorites with a total of 40.5. The Commodores, who own a 9-4 spread record as home underdogs during Derek Mason’s four-year tenure, are available to win outright for a +650 payout (risk $100 to win $650). Vandy’s Kyle Shurmur threw for 264 yards and three TDs without an interception at The Swamp last week. For the season, the junior signal caller has now thrown for 985 yards with an 11/1 TD-INT ratio.

UGA will be in revenge mode after dropping a 17-16 decision to Vandy in Athens last year. When the Bulldogs were seeking revenge last week after Tennessee hit a Hail Mary to top them between the hedges in 2016, they got it and then some in the form of a 41-0 clubbing at Neyland Stadium. The Volunteers hadn’t been dealt cream-cheese treatment since 1994. On that day in Knoxville, I was in the stands for the 34-0 shellacking delivered by my Gators.

Who started at QB for UT that day during Peyton Manning’s true freshman season? None other than former Colorado Rockies slugger Todd Helton, who gave way to Manning in the fourth quarter. With the Vols in the red zone in the final minute, Steve Spurrier “went all Spurrier” on UT and ordered the starters back in to preserve the shutout. On a fourth-and-goal play, Kevin Carter sacked Manning to put the icing (or cream cheese) on the bagel.

Eason is ready to play again, but Fromm will get the starting nod at Vandy. The ‘Dores are ranked No. 109 out of 130 FBS teams at defending the run. That’s not good against UGA’s trio of Nick Chubb, Sony Michel and true freshman D’Andre Swift. Chubb has rushed for 480 yards and six TDs with a 6.4 yards-per-carry average. Michel has 256 rushing yards, three TDs and a 5.4 YPC average, while Swift has rushed for 232 yards and one TD with a 7.3 YPC average.

At 4:00 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network, South Carolina (3-2 SU, 2-2-1 ATS) will take on Arkansas. As of Thursday, the Razorbacks were favored by two points at most spots. The total was 47 after it opened at 50. Some shops had the Gamecocks at +110 on the money line.

Will Muschamp’s team started 2-0 with wins over N.C. State (35-28 in Charlotte) and at Missouri (31-3 after trailing 10-0 early). Then it scored on the first play of scrimmage in its home opener vs. Kentucky in Week 3. After true sophomore QB Jake Bentley hit Deebo Samuel for the long TD pass, USC forced a quick turnover by the Wildcats. But the Gamecocks missed a field goal on that second possession, and it was tough sledding offensively the rest of the way.

UK ended up pulling out a 23-13 upset victory as a six-point road underdog. Even worse, Samuel broke his leg and is most likely out for the season. The junior WR and special-teams ace had already scored six TDs in 2.5 games played. Then in Week 4, USC had to rally from a 16-0 fourth-quarter deficit to win a 17-16 decision over La. Tech thanks to a walk-off field goal.

La. Tech easily covered the number, however, as a nine-point road underdog. Although Parker White hit the 31-yard game winner to nip the Bulldogs, he’s an atrocious 2-of-7 on field goals this year and has also missed an extra point.

Bentley has thrown for 1,257 yards with a 9/4 TD-INT ratio. He now has an 18/8 TD-INT ratio in 12 career starts with a 7-5 record. With Samuel sidelined, Bentley has two main targets in sophomore WR Bryan Edwards and junior TE Hayden Hurst. Edwards has 25 receptions for 337 yards, while Hurst has 17 catches for 221 yards and one TD. Hurst also had a two-yard TD run at Missouri.

If the line holds, it will be just the third time Arkansas (2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS) has been a road favorite during Bret Bielema’s five-year run at the helm The Razorbacks are 0-2 ATS in those two previous instances.

After dropping a sixth straight game to Texas A&M two weeks ago, which was the third that went to overtime in the last four years, Arkansas bounced back with a 42-24 win over New Mexico State last week. For those who backed the Hogs during the week when the number was stuck on 17, they cashed a winner. However, the line moved to 18.5 and 19 at most shops on Saturday morning, so Arkansas actually failed to cover the closing line.

This was Arkansas’ first game without its best and only experienced WR in Jared Cornelius, who sustained a season-ending Achilles tear vs. Texas A&M. Austin Allen completed 19-of-26 passes for 264 yards and three TDs with one interception vs. NMS. Devwah Whaley rushed 19 times for 119 yards and one TD. For the season, Allen has connected on 58.1 percent of his throws for 766 yards with a 7/3 TD-INT ratio.

Totals have been an overall wash (2-2) for the Hogs, who have seen their contests average combined scores of 62.5 PPG. The ‘under’ is 4-1 for the Gamecocks, 2-0 in their home outings.

Ole Miss (2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS) fell to 6-3 ATS in its last nine games as a double-digit underdog in last week’s 66-3 loss at Alabama as a 30.5-point ‘dog. I felt like it was borderline criminal that Hugh Freeze didn’t have to be on the sidelines to take that assbeating like a man.

After throwing nine TD passes with only one interception in home wins over South Alabama and UT-Martin, sophomore QB Shea Patterson has a 2/5 TD-INT ratio in losses at California and at Alabama. The Rebels will look to avoid a three-game losing streak Saturday on The Plains at Auburn. The Tigers were 21.5-point favorites as of Thursday, while the total was at 56.5.

Auburn (4-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) has won three consecutive games since dropping a 14-6 decision at Clemson. The Tigers have been playing great defense all season. They are currently ranked fifth in the nation in pass defense, ninth in total defense and sixth in scoring defense (11.0 PPG).

In the last two weeks, the offense has come alive in wins at Missouri (51-14) and vs. Mississippi State (49-10). Kerryon Johson was the catalyst at Mizzou, rushing for five TDs. The junior RB then ran for 116 yards and three TDs vs. Mississippi State Jarrett Stidham completed 13-of-16 passes against MSU for 264 yards and two TDs without an interception. Stidham, the junior who sat out last year at a JC after transferring from Baylor, has completed 72.0 percent of his passes for 1,110 yards with a 5/2 TD-INT ratio.

The ‘over’ is 3-1 for the Rebels, who have seen their games average combined scores of 63.5 points per game. On the flip side, Auburn has watched the ‘under’ go 3-2 overall, 2-1 in its home contests. The Tigers have seen their games average combined scores of 45.2 PPG.

These SEC West rivals will collide at noon Eastern on The SEC Network.

Alabama (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) hits the road this week to take on Texas A&M in College Station. As of Thursday, most books had the Crimson Tide listed as a 26.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 55.5. 5Dimes.eu had the Aggies available to win outright for a monster 20/1 payout (risk $100 to win $2,000).

Nick Saban’s squad smashed Vandy by a 59-0 count two weeks ago in its only prior road assignment. Saban has to be pleased with the play of sophomore QB Jalen Hurts, who has completed 64.0 percent of his passes for 747 yards and six TDs without an interception. He has also run for a team-best 461 yards and four TDs, averaging 8.4 YPC.

Damien Harris has run for 376 yards and six TDs with an 8.4 YPC average, while Bo Scarbrough has 239 rushing yards, four TDs and a 4.8 YPC average. Calvin Ridley has 24 receptions for 322 yards and two TDs.

Texas A&M (4-1 SU, 2-2-1 ATS) has won four in a row since blowing a 44-10 lead at UCLA late in the third quarter of a 45-44 setback. The Aggies are 2-0 in SEC play after getting past Arkansas in overtime before rallying past South Carolina last week, 24-17.

Kevin Sumlin has handed over the starting QB job to true freshman Kellen Mond, who has played well since halftime of a Week 3 win over Louisiana (45-21). For the year, Mond has 808 passing yards with a 6/2 TD-INT ratio. He’s a serious threat with his legs, rushing for 252 yards and one TD. Sophomore RB Trayveon Williams has run for 384 yards and five TDs with a 5.8 YPC average, while Keith Ford (5.3 YPC) has 302 rushing yards and seven TDs.

Texas A&M has been a home underdog five times during Sumlin’s tenure, posting a 1-4 spread record. The lone cover came in a 49-42 loss to Alabama as an 8.5-point puppy in 2013. Meanwhile, Alabama is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as a road favorite.

After a much-needed open date, Missouri (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS) will try to snap a three-game losing slide at Kentucky. As of Thursday, the Wildcats were 9.5-point home favorites.

UK bounced back from its gut-wrenching loss to Florida by slipping past Eastern Michigan, 24-20. The ‘Cats, who are 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS, are 2-7 ATS in their last nine contests as double-digit favorites.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Tennessee and Mississippi State have open dates this weekend.

The current spread for the Iron Bowl at The Westgate SuperBook: Alabama -10 at Auburn.

Likewise, the current Egg Bowl line looks like this: Mississippi State -9.5 vs. Ole Miss.

Other interesting SEC showdowns with the numbers via The Westgate

UGA -9.5 vs. UF (Jacksonville)
Alabama -24.5 vs. LSU
Auburn -13.5 at Texas A&M
Auburn -4 vs. UGA
LSU -7 at Tennessee
FSU -3 at UF
UGA -5.5 at Georgia Tech
LSU -8.5 vs. Texas A&M.

Posted : October 6, 2017 7:07 am

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Topic starter

College Football Week 6 Best Bets
VegasInsider.com

Week 5 of the College Football season was a very interesting one overall, but from a betting perspective here, a very lucrative one as well. Last week's Best Bets swept the board (2-0 ATS) with Mississippi State and Auburn easily surpassing their total of 51, and Oregon recovering from their 1st defeat in 2017 to beat up on Cal.

Weeks like that are always great to have, but we are still only in the first week of October and there is plenty of football left to be played. But October does bring more full-fledged rivalry games into the mix as conference play is in full swing around the country, and from what we've seen through five weeks already, there will be significant upsets shaking up the potential playoff picture every week.

Week 6 has a lot of ranked teams heading out on the road for tough games and many college football analysts are already mentioning the “trap game” idea quite a bit. So while a few other games might get more attention, it's the Pac-12 Conference that's got my attention this week.

Best Bet #1: : Oregon State/USC Over 59.5

USC saw their playoff hopes take a major hit last week with their loss @ Washington State and they'll likely have to run the table to have a shot. But what made matters worse for the Trojans is that they significant hits on the injury front – primarily the O-Line – and with no bye week until the end of November, the Trojans are going to have to make do with what they've got for the next little while.

Thankfully for USC fans, a very bad Oregon State team comes into town this week and they are just what the doctor ordered for the Trojans to get some confidence back.

Oregon has gone 0-4 SU and ATS against FBS schools this year and haven't really come close to covering a spread at all (0-5 ATS). It's been some brutal play on defense that's been the Beavers biggest problem in 2017, as all four FBS schools they've faced have hung at least 42 points on them.

With USC's strength being their offense, the Trojans should be able to put up 40+ on Oregon State even with a 1A offensive line up front, as they look to take out some bent-up frustration from last week's loss. But to his this 'over' bet we will need the Beavers to pull their weight on the scoreboard as well, and that's where USC's loss last week comes into play.

USC is a 34-point favorite for this game so it's a huge step down in intensity level and focus for the entire team. While that could hurt us with the Trojans offense stumbling a couple of times, it likely shouldn't matter in the long run in that regard.

However, a lack of intensity and focus on defense is what will lead to the Beavers finding paydirt a couple of times in this game. Oregon State is on a 7-0 O/U run after scoring fewer than 20 points themselves, 8-2 O/U after failing to cover a spread (including 4-1 O/U this year), and 7-3 O/U after allowing 40+ points the last time out.

As for comparable games, Oregon State has already gone to Washington State this year as well, and they fell 52-23 in that game to cash an 'over' 66 ticket. If the Beavers can put up 20+ on a Washington State defense that managed to give USC fits last week, they should be able to put up a similar number – and allow a similar number – against the Trojans this week as this number is now a little too low to not take advantage of.

Best Bet #2: Washington State/Oregon Over 62

Speaking of Washington State, they've got one of those potential “trap games” this week after their big win over USC as they head to Oregon to play the Ducks. Winning on the road in Eugene is tough for any college program and if the Cougars want to remain the frontrunners in the Pac-12, they'll have to bring their A-game again here.

Oregon loves to put points up in a hurry at home and with both sides wanting to play an uptempo, extremely fast game, this one has shootout written all over it.

As good as Washington State's defense looked at times last week, they still had a few poor drives against the Trojans when everything was clicking for USC. Oregon's offense on their own field is like a well-oiled machine as they've scored 40+ in each of their three home games this year.

That number has helped the Ducks to a 3-0 O/U record in Eugene in 2017, and with an explosive Cougars offense on the other side of the field, that O/U mark for the Ducks at home should remain perfect here.

Trap game or not, Washington State has to be coming into this game with the mindset of needing 35+ to have a chance at winning SU and keeping their undefeated season alive.

HC Mike Leach understands that his defense isn't likely to keep the Ducks off the scoreboard or long, and that same lack of attention to detail that could plague USC's defense this week is something that could hurt the Cougars too.

But high-scoring games against Oregon during the Mike Leach era at Washington State is normal, as the five games they've played with Leach at the helm have all finished with at least 69 total points.

Washington State were heavy underdogs in quite a few of those games, and underdogs in all five of them, and they've actually won the last two meetings SU. Last year they hung 51 on this Oregon defense up in Washington and I would not be surprised to see them put up 35+ on the Ducks by the end of the third quarter.

With Washington State on a 4-0 O/U run in their last four at home and Oregon 9-3 O/U in their last 12 against a winning opponent, expect fireworks in Eugene again this year in a game between these two programs as it might end up being the first to 40 points wins.

Posted : October 6, 2017 7:09 am

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Saturday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

West Virginia at Texas Christian

As of early Friday, most betting shops had TCU (4-0 straight up, 2-2 against the spread) installed as a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 67.5. On Sunday, most spots opened the Horned Frogs as 12.5-point ‘chalk,’ but the number was up to 14 and as high as 14.5 on Monday. Since Tuesday, however, the line has bounced around from 13 to 13.5. The Mountaineers were +450 on the money line (risk $100 to win $450).

West Virginia (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) has beaten up on three cupcake foes since dropping a 31-24 decision to Virginia Tech in Landover, MY., in the Sunday night opener for both schools. Dana Holgorsen’s squad has collected lopsided victories vs. East Carolina (56-20), vs. Delaware State (59-16) and at Kansas (56-34). In its lone true road game, WVU failed to cover the number at KU as a 23.5-point favorite. In fairness, we should note that WVU was favored by 21 or 21.5 for most of the week, so bettors who backed the Mountaineers early actually hit a winner.

Former Florida QB Will Grier missed 2014 to redshirt before leading the Gators to a 6-0 record as a RS freshman in ‘15. But on the Monday morning after a UF win at Missouri, it was revealed that Grier popped dirty for a banned PED and he was suspended by the NCAA for one year. Grier and his father requested a meeting with Jim McElwain after the season. How that meeting went down has been told two different ways. Grier says that McElwain was late to the meeting by two hours and that the QB never requested a guarantee that he’d be the starter when he could come back in Week 7 of 2016. Whatever the case, Grier decided to transfer and had to sit out ’16. So he had played only six games in three seasons as a college player coming into the ’17 campaign. He now has a 9-1 record as a starting QB. Grier has completed 65.3 percent of his passes for 1,374 yards with a 13/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His career TD-INT ratio is 23/6.

Senior RB Justin Crawford is on his way to another 1,000-yard rushing season. So far in four games, Crawford has run for 451 yards and six TDs while averaging 7.4 yards per carry. Back-up sophomore Kennedy McKoy has gained 209 yards on 31 carries, with three rushing scores and a 6.7 YPC average. Grier has 131 rushing yards and two TDs. His favorite targets are Gary Jennings and David Sills V. Jennings has hauled in 29 receptions for 438 yards and one TD, while Sills has brought down 26 catches for 396 yards and seven TDs. Marcus Simms also has nine grabs for 211 yards and three TDs.

WVU is ranked second in the nation in both total offense and scoring with a 48.8 points-per-game average.

After both members of the secondary practiced at full speed on Thursday, starting CB Mike Daniels Jr. and starting safety Kyzir White were both upgraded to ‘probable.’ Three other WVU starters are listed as ‘questionable,’ including LB David Long, OG Grant Lingafelter and safety Toyous Avery. Another key player, reserve LB Marvin Gross Jr, is also a question mark.

This is WVU’s first double-digit underdog spot in 23 games dating back to a game at Baylor midway through 2015. During Holgorsen’s seven-year tenure, WVU is 7-7 ATS as a road ‘dog.

Both teams have had two weeks to prepare for this crucial Big 12 showdown. TCU has captured wins vs. Jackson St. (63-0), at Arkansas (28-7), vs. SMU (56-36) and at Oklahoma State (44-31). The win in Stillwater two weeks ago came as a nine-point underdog, but the Horned Frogs were double-digit ‘dog for most of the week before the line move South of 10 on Saturday. Gary Patterson’s team led by 20 early in the fourth quarter, only to see that advantage sliced to 37-31 with 3:03 remaining. However, Darius Anderson’s 42-yard TD run less than 30 seconds later put the game on ice.

TCU forced four turnovers and committed merely one in the win at OSU. Kenny Hill completed 22-of-33 passes for 228 yards with one TD and one interception. Anderson rushed for 160 yards and three TDs on 26 attempts.

For the season, Hill has connected on 72.6 percent of his passes for 965 yards with a 9/3 TD-INT ratio. Anderson has run for a team-best 422 yards and six TDs while averaging 6.2 YPC. Senior RB Kyle Hicks, who ran for 1,042 yards and 12 TDs last season, has missed back-to-back games with an undisclosed injury. Hicks, who produced 128 rushing yards and one TD on 23 attempts in TCU’s first two games, has been upgraded to ‘probable’ vs. WVU.

TCU has five players who have at least nine catches and 101 receiving yards. This groud is led by Jalen Reagor, who has nine receptions for 151 yards and one TD. Desmon White has 14 catches for 151 yards and two TDs.

TCU is ranked fifth in the country in scoring with a 47.8 PPG average. The Frogs are 17th in total offense, 25th in rushing yards. As for Patterson’s defense, it is 13th in the nation at defending the run, 26th in scoring defense (18.5 PPG) and 28th in total defense.

TCU’s only injury of note is the one for Patrick Morris, who is ‘out’ with an undisclosed issue. Morris is the team’s starting center who has logged 16 career starts.

When WVU and TCU joined the Big 12 in 2012, the Horned Frogs won two of the first three games with the trio of contests decided by five combined points. They split the first two games that both went to OT, and then TCU won a 31-30 decision in Morgantown in ’14. In WVU’s last visit to Ft. Worth, TCU coasted to a 40-10 victory as a 12-point home ‘chalk.’ The Mountaineers answered last season by blasting the Frogs 34-10 as 5.5-point home favorites. The ‘under’ has cashed in each of the last three encounters.

The ‘over’ is 3-0-1 overall for WVU, cashing in its lone road assignment when the 90 combined points soared above the 70-point tally at KU. The Mountaineers have seen their games average combined scores of 74.0 PPG.

Totals have been a wash both overall (2-2) and at home (1-1) for TCU this season. The Frogs have seen their game produce average combined scores of 66.2 PPG.

Miami at Florida State

As of early Friday, most shops had Miami (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) installed as a three-point favorite with a total of 46. The Seminoles were +130 on the money line.

Miami has an extra day of rest coming into this crucial ACC showdown. Mark Rich’s team went to Durham last Friday night and emerged with a 31-6 win at Duke as a 5.5-point road favorite. The 37 combined points easily stayed ‘under’ the 55-point tally. Junior QB Malik Rosier completed 15-of-26 throws for 270 yards and two TDs with one interception. Junior RB Mark Walton ran for 51 yards on 17 attempts, but he also contributed four catches for 79 yards. Ahmmon Richards, the true sophomore WR who garnered second-team All-ACC honors last year, had three receptions for 106 yards and one TD.

Before beating Duke, UM opened the season with a 41-13 non-covering home win over Bethune-Cookman as a 46.5-point favorite. Then just like FSU, the Hurricanes had to go 21 days without playing a game due to Hurricane Irma. These long-time bitter rivals were scheduled to meet on Sept. 16 but since they shared an open date on Oct. 7, the schools agree to move the game. When UM finally returned to the field two weeks ago at home, it was clearly rusty and found itself trailing Toledo 16-10 midway through the second quarter. But Miami came alive at that point led by Walton, who produced 204 rushing yards and one TD on merely 11 carries. Rosier completed 27-of-36 passes for 333 yards and three TDs with one interception. Braxton Berrios had five catches for 105 yards and one TD.

For the season, Rosier has a 65.6 completion percentage with 820 passing yards and an 8/2 TD-INT ratio. Rosier has also rushed for 97 yards and one TD through three games. Walton has run for a team-high 403 yards and three TDs with a stellar 9.2 YPC average. Travis Homer has added 183 rushing yards and three TDs on 22 totes for an 8.3 YPC average. Berrios has 10 catches for 192 yards and three TDs.

FSU (1-2 SU, 0-2-1 ATS) started the season with a 24-7 loss to Alabama at the new Mercedes-Benz Dome in Atlanta. Making matters worse, star sophomore QB Deondre Francois was lost to a season-ending knee injury. When the ‘Noles finally got back on the field at home vs. N.C. State, they lost 27-21 as 10.5-point ‘chalk.’ N.C. St. hit a short field goal midway through the first quarter and led the rest of the way, holding three separate double-digit advantages.

In the first start of his career vs. N.C. State, true freshman QB James Blackman completed 22-of-38 passes for 278 yards and one TD without an interception. Auden Tate had nine receptions for 138 yards and one TD before leaving the game with an arm injury in the second half. Cam Akers rushed for a team-high 56 yards on 12 attempts.

Jimbo Fisher’s team was staring at a 0-3 record last week when it trailed 19-16 at Wake Forest midway through the fourth quarter. Ricky Aguayo’s 35-yard field goal with 6:20 remaining knotted the score. Then with 53 ticks left, Blackman found Tate for a 40-yard scoring strike for the game-winning score. The Demon Deacons moved the ball a tad beyond midfield and had a Hail Mary pass into the end zone on the game’s final play, but FSU star safety Derwin James batted the ball down to secure the victory. Blackman didn’t get any help from his offensive line and was pressured for 60 full minutes. He threw for 121 yards and one TD without an interception. Junior RB Jacques Patrick rushed 19 times for 120 yards and one TD. FSU produced merely 270 yards of total offense compared to 367 for Wake Forest.

FSU is ranked No. 120 of 130 FBS teams in total offense. The ‘Noles are No. 122 in rushing and No. 116 in scoring offense with a meager 18.0 PPG average.

This is only the third time FSU has been a home underdog under Fisher. The ‘Noles are 1-1 ATS in those two previous spots. Meanwhile, Miami owns a 5-1 spread record in six games as a road favorite since Richt took over in Coral Gables.

The ‘under’ is 3-0 overall for FSU, 1-0 in its only home game to date. The ‘Noles have seen their games average combined scores of 41.3 PPG.

The ‘under’ is 2-1 overall for UM, 1-0 in its lone road outing. The ‘Canes have seen their games average combined scores of 57.7 PPG.

FSU has seven in a row over UM in this storied rivalry, but the last three have been one-possession games. The last win over FSU for the ‘Canes came in 2010 when they won by a 38-34 count as six-point road underdogs. The ‘under’ has been a winner in six straight head-to-head meetings.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Georgia starting LB Natrez Patrick was arrested Thursday night for possession of marijuana. As of Friday morning, the UGA football program had not addressed the situation yet. However, the Macon Telegraph has reported that since this is Patrick second arrest while at UGA, he is looking at a four-game suspension that would likely start Saturday at Vandy. Patrick was UGA’s second-leading tackler in ’16, and he is currently tied for third on the Bulldogs in tackles with 17.

According to a late Thursday report from SECcountry.com, South Carolina is most likely going to be without three starters on the offensive line vs. Arkansas. Cory Helms and Malik Young have already been ruled ‘out,’, while Zack Bailey is ‘doubtful.’ Will Muschamp indicated to the media that he felt good about all three being back for next week’s game at Tennessee. The Vols are off this weekend and have two weeks to prepare, in addition to the revenge angle on the Gamecocks.

Notre Dame starting QB Brandon Wimbush was upgraded to ‘probable’ early Friday for Saturday’s game at UNC. However, Wimbush might not get the start in Chapel Hill. The Fighting Irish, 14 or 14.5-point favorites as of early Friday, are 2-0 as a road ‘chalk’ this year, but they’re only 7-10 ATS in 17 such spots on Brian Kelly’s watch. UNC has 13 players out with season-ending injuries. The Tar Heels are 1-2-1 ATS as home ‘dogs during Larry Fedora’s six-year run at the school.

Here are some updated Games of the Year spreads from the Westgate that may interest bettors:

USC -3.5 at Notre Dame
FSU -3 vs. Louisville
Penn St. -5 vs. Michigan
Oklahoma St. -5.5 at Texas
Ohio State -6.5 vs. Penn State
Oklahoma State -4.5 at WVU
Miami -7 vs. Virginia Tech
Clemson -11.5 at N.C. State
Oklahoma -3.5 at Oklahoma State
Washington State -3 vs. Stanford
Washington -6.5 at Stanford
Clemson -15.5 vs. FSU
Georgia Tech -1 vs. Virginia Tech
Miami -6 vs. Notre Dame
Oklahoma -10 vs. TCU
Utah -2 vs. Washington State
Wisconsin -4.5 vs. Michigan
Ohio State -4.5 at Michigan
Stanford -4 vs. Notre Dame
Washington -11.5 vs. Washington State

Kansas is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog. The Jayhawks are 16.5-point home ‘dogs vs. Texas Tech, which has failed to cover the number in three straight as a road favorite.

Posted : October 6, 2017 11:07 am

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NCAAF Week 6 Picks an Predictions
By: Andrew Caley
Covers.com

So, let’s dive into another helping of picks and fill up our bankroll.

Not many teams have filled up bankrolls (and mine in particular) than the Georgia Bulldogs this season. I am very thankful for the likes of Nick Chubb and that entire Bulldogs' defense.

Georgia is 4-1 ATS this season and the only game they didn't cover was a 42-14 whipping of Samford as 33-point favorites where the starters where out of the game by the fourth quarter. In their first two games of SEC action, they have outscored Mississippi State and Tennessee by a score of 72-3. Let that sink in. 72-3.

The Bulldogs defense ranks 3rd in the nation in total defense and second in points allowed at 9.2 per game. That defense faces a Vanderbilt program that has been a little lackluster on offense, especially since the start of conference play. Vandy ranks 123rd in total offense and 110th in points scored.

The Commodores' defense hasn't been terrible overall, ranking 49th in total yards, but they have been brutal against the run. They rank 109th in that category allowing 209.6 yards per game on the ground. That has Cubb, who is averaging 6.4 yards per carry and has six touchdowns already this season, licking his chops lick he is looking at a full Thanksgiving spread.

Alabama thumped Vandy 59-0 two weeks ago, while rushing for a ridiculous 496 yards in the process. I expect something similar from Georgia as we roll with the Bulldogs in back-to-back weeks.

Pick: Georgia -17

West Virginia Mountaineers at TCU Horned Frogs (-13.5, 67.5)

TCU stunned most of the college football world by going into Stillwater and thumping Oklahoma State on its home field 44-31 as nine-point underdogs.

This week it’s the Horned Frogs with all the expectations as they welcome the Will Grier and the West Virginia Mountaineers to town for a Top 25 Big 12 matchup.
Grier, the former Florida signal caller, has looked good in leading the Mountaineers to a 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS record, throwing for 1,374 yards and 13 touchdowns to just three interceptions, while completing 65.3 percent of his passes.

West Virginia’s lone loss came in its thrilling season opener against a good Virginia Tech squad. The Mountaineers dropped that contest 31-24 as five point pups on a neutral site, in a game where they had a chance to win outright late.

TCU’s defense ranks 28th in the nation and made some problems for Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph, but Rudolph still ended up with nearly 400 yards passing. The Horned Frogs’ defense ranks 68th against the pass and Grier has the capability to make this a game.

Plus, the West Virginia secondary is just good enough to keep the Mountaineers competitive in this game. Almost two full touchdowns is nice to pass up here.

Pick: West Virginia +13.5

Miami Hurricanes at Florida State Seminoles (+3, 46)

We close out with a classic ACC matchup as Miami visits Florida State. These two teams are probably thankful to be able worry mostly about football now. This game was originally scheduled for Sept. 16 but was postponed due to Hurricane Irma.

No. 12 Miami enters this game at 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, with the lone time it couldn't cover being a 41-13 win over Bethune Cookman as 50-point favorites and is coming off an impressive 31-6 thumping of Duke as 5.5-point road faves last week.

Miami's offense has looked impressive in its three games, ranking 11th in total yards and 18th in points per game, but it's their defense that should be the key to this matchup, specifically, its run defense. While they rank 68th in total defense they rank 17th in points allowed at just 16.3 per game.

As for the run defense, they rank 56th in the country in terms of yards per game, but that doesn't tell the whole story. The Hurricanes are allowing just 3.5 yards per attempt and have surrendered just one rushing touchdown this season. Duke had 11 rushing touchdowns heading into the matchup last week.

That could be a problem for a Seminoles offense that is a real mess even since they lost quarterback Deondre Francois for the season to a knee injury in their opener versus Alabama. True freshman James Blackman has been thrown in the fire in a tough conference and is completing just 55 percent of his passes so far. The run game hasn't picked up the slack either, ranking 122nd in yards per game.

The U wants to show that it's back and what better way to do so than winning its first game against its biggest rival in its last seven tries.

Pick: Miami -3

Last week: 3-0
Season to date: 9-6 (60 %)

Heisman Odds Update

OK guys, I hope you were paying attention last week, but Washington State's Luke Falk had another big game in a big upset over USC and he's still just 30/1 to win the Heisman Trophy at the Westgate LV Superbook.

Let's lay down some numbers on Falk. He has led the Cougars to a 5-0 SU record (and have covered the last three in a row), he is seventh in the nation in passing yards with 1,714, second in touchdown passes with 16 with just two interceptions. Plus, he is completing almost 75 percent of his passes. That low number may be due to the fact that he plays for an obscure program like Washington State, or maybe Vegas thinks they're due for a letdown. But, that might not happen. They're schedule isn't overly tough, but the Apple Cup looms large this season. Either way, there is way too much value with Falk right now.

Not surprisingly, Penn State's Saquon Barkley is the Heisman favorite right now at 7/4. The Nittany Lions runner was actually held in check by the Hoosiers last week, as he rushed 20 times for just 56 yards. BUT (and this is a big but), he returned the games opening kickoff for a touchdown and added another 51 receiving yards in Penn State's 45-14 win. Oh, and he threw a touchdown pass as well. So, yeah. he's good at football. Barkley now has 960 total yards with 27 receptions and seven total touchdowns.

Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield didn't play last week and is still the second favorite at 2/1, followed by Loiusville's Lamar Jackson at 8/1 (that will drop after another bad loss to NC State on Thursday night) and USC's Sam Darnold at 12/1. But the new name to keep an eye on is Stanford's Bryce Love.

Love is now on the board at 15/1 after another dominant performance for the Cardinal. Love leads the nation in rushing with 1,088 yards on just 98 attempts. That is an average of 11.1 yards per attempt, to go along with eight rushing scores.

Posted : October 6, 2017 11:17 pm

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NCAA Football Line Watch
By Steve Merril
Covers.com

Spread to bet now:

Toledo (-14) vs. Eastern Michigan

Toledo opened at -13 and was quickly bet higher to -13.5. Play this game before it moves above the key number of -14 or higher. Toledo enters with extra preparation time off a bye week and the Rockets are taking a big step down in class after facing Miami Florida two weeks ago. Toledo's offense was strong in that loss, scoring 30 points on 429 total yards.

Eastern Michigan does not have the advantage of a bye week and they enter this game off back-to-back close losses versus Ohio and Kentucky which could leave the Eagles flat. Eastern Michigan is the substantially weaker offensive team in this game, averaging just 20 points per game and 4.9 yards per play this season (versus opponents that allow 27 ppg and 5.6 yppl).

Spread to wait on:

Kent State (+23.5) at Northern Illinois

This line opened at +23 and has already risen higher to +23.5. Wait for it to hit the key number of +24 or more. Kent State is battle-tested as they enter conference play after playing a tough non-conference schedule that included road games at Clemson and Louisville.

Northern Illinois is 4-0 ATS, but they have only been a point spread favorite in one game this season. This game is a possible letdown spot after big road games at Nebraska and San Diego State the past two weeks. Covering this big number might be difficult with an offense that has underperformed this season, averaging just 26.7 points per game on 5.1 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 28.1 ppg on 5.5 yppl).

Total to watch:

LSU at Florida (44)

After a high-scoring game in 2015 (LSU 35-28), these teams played a low-scoring contest last year (Florida 16-10). That score was misleading as LSU held a 423-270 total yard edge, but could not overcome a 2-0 turnover deficit.

Florida's offense has scored 28 points or less in three of their four games this season and will now be facing a tough LSU defense that has allowed just 19.4 points per game on 4.8 yards per play this year (versus opponents that average 22.2 ppg on 5.2 yppl). LSU's offense has scored 27 points or less in three of their four games versus FBS opponents this season.

Posted : October 7, 2017 9:49 am

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Saturday's Week 6 NCAAF Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet
Covers.com

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at (2) Clemson Tigers (-21.5, 47.5)

The Demon Deacons lead the nation with 10 tackles for loss per game. QB John Walford has already accounted for 12 touchdowns (eight passing, four rushing), just three fewer than he had all of last season

The Tigers are one of only four FBS teams with at least 19 rushing touchdowns, joining Oregon (25), Notre Dame (20) and Tulsa (19). Clemson has converted on 49.3 percent of third downs, the 11th-best rate in Division I.

LINE HISTORY: The second ranked Tigers opened this game at most books as a 21.5-point home fave and that's where the number currently sits. The total has also not moved off its opening number of 47.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Wake Forest is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight conference games.
* Clemson is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Wake Forest's last four road games.
* Over is 7-1 in Clemson's last eight games in October.

(6) Georgia Bulldogs at Vanderbilt Commodores (+17, 40)

The Bulldogs are one of 12 FBS teams still perfect in red-zone scoring, converting 19 trips into 14 touchdowns and five field goals. Georgia ranks second nationally in scoring defense (9.2) and has allowed the fewest touchdowns in the nation (four).

The Commodores are 18-for-42 on third-down conversions in their three wins and 4-for-23 in their two defeats. LB Charles Wright has racked up an SEC-best six sacks through five games.

LINE HISTORY: The undefeated Bulldogs opened as 15.5-point road chalk at most shops and have been bet as high as -17.5. The number is currently Georgia -17. The total opened at 41 and has been bet down to 40. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Georgia is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.
* Vanderbilt is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Under is 6-0 in Georgia's last six conference games.
* Under is 9-1 in Vanderbilt's last 10 games in October.

Mississippi Rebels at (13) Auburn Tigers (-22.5, 56.5)

Ole Miss enters the week ranked dead last in the FBS in rushing yards per game (74.3), averaging just 2.9 YPC with two scores on the ground. QB Shea Patterson has two touchdown passes and five interceptions over his past two games.

The Tigers rank fifth nationally in fewest passing yards allowed (142.4) while also ranking among the NCAA leaders in opponent yards per attempt (4.8 ) and yards per completion (8.9). RB Kerryon Johnson has eight rushing scores in his last two games.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Tigers as 21-point home chalk and they've been bet up a point and a half to the current number of 22.5. The total opened at 56.5 and was up to 57.5, before coming back down to the opening number. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Mississippi is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games overall.
* Auburn is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in Mississippi's last six games overall.
* Under is 8-2 in Auburn's last 10 games overall.

Iowa State Cyclones at (3) Oklahoma Sooners (-31, 62)

The Cyclones are one of just eight teams in Division I that has yet to lose a fumble in 2017. Iowa State ranks 15th overall in tackles for loss per game (8.0) and its +17 TFL margin is fourth-best in the nation.

The Sooners own the longest active winning streak in FBS, having won 14 straight games while outscoring opponents by 299 points over that stretch. Oklahoma averages a Division I-leading 9.1 points per play, well ahead of runner-up Miami (8.2).

LINE HISTORY: The Sooners hit the board as hefty 28-point home chalk and bettors didn't that was enough moving Oklahoma to the current number of -31. The total opened at 68.5 and it has been mostly Under money coming in, with the number all the way down to 62. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Iowa State is 1-5 ATS in its last six meetings in Oklahoma.
* Oklahoma is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in Iowa State's last six vs. a team with a winning record.

(4) Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats (+13.5, 50.5)

The Nittany Lions rank third in FBS in scoring defense (9.4) and have yet to surrender a first-quarter touchdown through five games. RB Saquon Barkley has six rushing touchdowns in his previous four true road games dating back to 2016.

The Wildcats have converted 16 consecutive red-zone visits into points after failing to do so on their first trip of the season; 14 of those scores are touchdowns. Northwestern is allowing 13.5 points per game at home and 37 per game on the road.

LINE HISTORY: Penn State opened as a two touchdown favorite and were bet to -14.5, but since then the number has moved down to the current number of -13.5. The total hit the board at 55.5 and has seen mostly Under money, moving down five points to the current number of 50.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Penn State is 12-2-2 ATS in its last 16 games overall.
* Northwestern is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a SU loss.
* Under is 4-1 in Penn State's last five games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Northwestern.

(12) Miami Hurricanes at Florida State Seminoles (+3, 45.5)

The Hurricanes have given up just 11 red-zone visits, but 10 of those have resulted in scoring plays - a 90.9-percent success rate that ranks outside the top 100 nationally. Miami's 7.5 YPC ranks second nationally, behind only Stanford.

The Seminoles have held opponents to a 12-for-42 success rate on third downs, a 28.6-percent mark that ranks 20th in Division I. Florida State is the only team in the ACC averaging fewer than 100 rushing yards per contest (97.7).

LINE HISTORY: The Hurricanes hit the board favored by a field goal on the road and that's where the number currently sits. The total opened at 47.5 and has moved down two points to the current number of 45.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last five conference games.
* Underdog is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings.
* Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in Miami's last four road games.

(22) Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar Heels (+14.5, 63)

Fighting Irish QB Brandon Wimbush (783 passing yards, six TDs) is considered day-to-day after suffering a foot injury last weekend against Miami (Ohio). Notre Dame is one of only seven teams averaging more than 300 rushing yards per game.

The Tar Heels are allowing opponents to convert 42.2 percent of their third-down chances, ranking them 94th in Division I. QB Chazz Surratt has seen his QB rating fall in three straight games, from 233.7 on Sept. 9 to 92.8 in last week's loss.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Irish as two touchdown road faves in this matchup and were bet as high as -17, but since then they have come down to the current number of Notre Dame -14.5. The total has also seen plenty of action. After opening at 62 at most shops the number dropped as low as 57.5 before bouncing back to the current number of 63. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Notre Dame is 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* North Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.
* Over is 6-1 in Notre Dame's last seven games overall.
* Under is 6-0 in North Carolina's last six games in October.

(23) West Virginia Mountaineers at (10) TCU Horned Frogs (-13, 67.5)

The Mountaineers rank second in the nation in points per game (48.8 ) and yards per contest (594.8 ). West Virginia leads all Big 12 teams in three-and-outs forced per game (5.75).

Horned Frogs QB Kenny Hill has completed 72.6 percent of his passes so far this season, the sixth-best rate in FBS. TCU has converted a whopping 63.2 percent of its third downs, far and away the best rate in Division I.

LINE HISTORY: The Horned Frogs opened as 12.5-point home faves and rose as high as -14, but since then they have come back down to the current number of TCU -13. The total hit the board at a big 73.5, but it's been almost all Under money, with the number coming down six points to the current number of 67.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* West Virginia is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following a bye week.
* TCU is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games.
* Over is 3-0-1 in West Virginia's last four games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in TCU's last six games in October.

LSU Tigers at (20) Florida Gators (-2, 44)

Tigers LB Devin White has an SEC-high 49 tackles, the second-most by an LSU player through five games since 2002. The Tigers have incurred just seven penalties through the past two games after being called for 30 in the first three contests.

The Gators will be without WR Tyrie Cleveland, who is nursing an ankle injury; he ranks fourth in the conference in yards per reception (21.7). Feleipe Franks regains the starting quarterback job after Luke Del Rio suffered a season-ending injury last week.

LINE HISTORY: The Gators opened as 6.5-point favorites at most shops, but bettors like the Tigers in this matchup, moving the number down to Florida -2. The total opened at 46.5 and has been bet down to the current number of 44. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* LSU is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.
* Florida is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a ATS win.
* Under is 4-1 in LSU's last five vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-0 in Florida's last four games following a ATS win.

Maryland Terrapins at (9) Ohio State Buckeyes (-30.5, 60.5)

The Terrapins haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in eight consecutive games. Maryland has outscored opponents 45-7 in the opening quarter, with those seven points coming courtesy an interception return for a TD in the season opener.

The Buckeyes have limited opposing pass attacks to fewer than 100 yards in three consecutive games. Ohio State running backs have lost just two yards on 127 total carries on the season.

LINE HISTORY: The Buckeyes opened at a very chalky -31, but have been bet down slightly to the current number of -30.5. The total opened at 58.5 and has been bet up to the current number of 60.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Maryland is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games following a SU win.
* Ohio State is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Maryland's last six road games.
* Over is 5-1 in Ohio State's last six conference games.

Oregon State Beavers at (15) USC Trojans (-33, 57)

The Beavers have been successful on all 10 trips to the red zone in 2017, scoring nine touchdowns (six rushing, three passing) and one field goal. Oregon State's 25:40 average time of possession ranks 120th out of 129 Division I schools.

Trojans offensive lineman Viane Talamaivao, who started 37 games in his collegiate career, has a torn pectoral muscle and will miss the remainder of the season. USC ranks fourth in the nation in interceptions (eight) and 12th in sacks per game (3.2).

LINE HISTORY: The Trojans hit the board as big 34-point home favorites and have been bet down slightly to the current number of USC -33. The total opened at 59.5 and has been bet down to 57. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Oregon State is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.
* USC is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Over is 8-2 in Oregon State's last 10 games following a ATS loss.

(19) Virginia Tech Hokies at Boston College Eagles (+16.5, 46.5)

Seven different Hokies players have rushed for at least one touchdown. WR Cam Phillips is tied for third in the nation in receiving yards (597) but has gone consecutive games without a TD for the first time since last November.

The Eagles' 90.64 pass efficiency against is the fourth-best mark in Division I. Boston College's offensive line has surrendered just five sacks through the first five games of the season.

LINE HISTORY: Virginia Tech opened as 16-point favorites and are now at -16.5. The total hit the board at 48 and is down to the current number of 46.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Virginia Tech is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a straight up loss.
* Boston College is 3-9-1 ATS in its lat 13 conference games.
* Over is 4-0 in Virginia Tech's last four games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.

(1) Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas A&M Aggies (+25.5, 55)

The Crimson Tide has outscored foes by an average of 37.6 points per game while outgaining them on the ground by nearly 242 yards per contest. Alabama's defense hasn't allowed a touchdown in SEC play since last Oct. 22.

The Aggies defense has produced a 3-and-out on nearly 41 percent of opponent drives so far in 2017. Texas A&M is averaging 301.3 rushing yards against Power 5 schools, the fifth-best mark in the nation.

LINE HISTORY: The No. 1 team in the country opened this game as 25.5-point road faves and were up to -26.5, before returning to the opening number. The total opened at 54 and got as high as 57 before coming back down to the current number of 55. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Alabama is 8-1 ATS in its last nine conference games.
* Texas A&M is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games.
* Over is 4-1 in Alabama's last five conference games.
* Over is 4-1 in Texas A&M's last five games following a SU win.

(11) Washington State Cougars at Oregon Ducks (+3, 59.5)

The Cougars are ranked seventh in the nation in sacks (17) and 15th in tackles for loss (38). Washington State's 414 passing yards per game rank second nationally, and its 53.8-percent third-down conversion rate is fourth-best in Division I.

The Ducks have been the most penalized team in Division I, racking up 52 flags for 467 yards through five games. Oregon has an FBS-high 25 rushing touchdowns, with Royce Freeman (10) and Kani Benoit (eight) accounting for 76 percent of those scores.

LINE HISTORY: Most books opened the Ducks as 2-point faves, but the line has jumped the fence and Oregon is now a three-point home dog. The total hit the board at 65.5 and it's another game seeing plenty of Under money, moving the number to 59.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Washington State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven meetings.
* Oregon is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games following a SU win.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Oregon.
* Over is 4-0 in Washington State's last four road games.

(25) Central Florida Knights at Cincinnati Bearcats (+17, 53.5)

The Knights' two leading rushers - Adrian Killins Jr. and McKenzie Milton - combine to average 9.2 YPC on 41 attempts. UCF is ranked seventh in both scoring offense and scoring defense, one of just three FBS teams to rank in the top 10 in both.

At 25:14 time of possession, the Bearcats are one of only 11 Division I teams averaging less than 26 minutes per game. LB Jaylyin Minor averages 10.2 tackles per game, the second-highest rate in the American Athletic Conference.

LINE HISTORY: Central Florida opened this game favored by two touchdowns and have been bet up to the current number of UCF -17. The total opened at 58 and is down to 53.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* UCF is 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Cincinnati is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games.
* Under is 7-0 in UCF's last seven games following a ATS win.
* Under is 8-2 in Cincinnati's last 10 home games.

(8 ) Wisconsin Badgers at Nebraska Cornhuskers (+10.5, 45.5)

The Badgers are surrendering just 247 yards per game, fourth-fewest in the nation. The Wisconsin offense has scored 30 or more points in four straight games and eight of its last nine contests dating back to 2016.

The Huskers haven't allowed an offensive touchdown over its last seven quarters, and has given up just two offensive TDs in its last 14 quarters. QB Tanner Lee has thrown a Division I-high nine interceptions, two more than he threw all of last season.

LINE HISTORY: The Badgers have quietly climbed into the Top 10 one again and oddsmakers opened them as 11.5-point home favorites, were bet up to -12 and are now down to -10.5. The total opened at 47 and has come down slightly since then to 45.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Wisconsin is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games.
* Nebraska is 1-5-2 ATS in its last eight home games.
* Over is 5-0 in Wisconsin's last five conference games.
* Under is 7-1 in Nebraska's last eight home games.

Stanford Cardinal at (18) Utah Utes (+4, 52)

Cardinal junior RB Bryce Love has had at least 160 rushing yards and one touchdown in all five games this season. Stanford is perfect in the red zone so far this season, with 15 touchdowns (eight receiving, seven rushing) and seven field goals in 22 trips.

The Utes rank 10th in the nation in rushing yards allowed per game (87.0) and 18th in scoring defense (17.3). Utah has made 14 field goals - the most in Division I - and leads the nation in net punting (45.3 yards).

LINE HISTORY: It's the Utes who are ranked, but it's Stanford getting the points on the road. Utah opened as six-point home pups, but bettors think that's too many bringing the number down to Utah +3.5. The total opened at 51.5 and has been bet up slightly to the current number of 52. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Stanford is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a SU win.
* Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six conference games.
* Under is 5-1 in Stanford's last six games following a bye week.
* Under is 6-1 in Utah's last seven games overall.

(21) San Diego State Atecs at UNLV Rebels (+8, 56.5)

Rashaad Penny is the first Aztecs running back to begin a season with five consecutive 100-yard rushing games since Marshall Faulk in 1992. San Diego State's plus-9 turnover margin is tied for third-best in the nation.

The Rebels average 305.5 rushing yards per game, the sixth-highest rate in Division I. The UNLV defense ranks 14th in opponent red-zone rate, allowing foes to score on just 68.2 percent of their red-zone visits.

LINE HISTORY: San Diego State opened as 10-point road chalk, but bettors like UNLV here, bringing the number down to -8. The total opened at 57 and has been bet down slihtly to the current number of 56.6. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* San Diego State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU win.
* UNLV is 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 6-1 in San Diego State's last seven conference games.
* Over is 13-3 in UNLV's last 16 home games.

California Golden Bears at (5) Washington Huskies (-28.5, 52)

The Bears have produced 27 plays of 20-plus yards on the season, while surrendering just 17. The Cal defense has forced 12 turnovers, ranking in a tie for sixth in Division I.

The Huskies defense has held opponents under 30 points in 19 consecutive games dating back to the end of the 2015 season. QB Jake Browning has thrown multiple TD passes in four of his first five games this season.

LINE HISTORY: Washington opened a big 26-point home faves for this Pac-12 showdown and have been bet up to -28.5. The total hit the board at 58 and bettors like the Under, bringing the number down to 52. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cal is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.
* Washington is 4-0 ATS in its last four conference games.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Washington.
* Under is 5-0-1 in Washington's last six conference games.

Posted : October 7, 2017 9:57 am