College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, September 20

Injury Update
By Dave Cokin

Arizona State will be without starting QB Taylor Kelly for an indefinite period, although there’s already indications he might be back as soon as the USC game. But he’s out for UCLA this week, and junior Mike Berkovici will get his first start for the Sun Devils.

Arizona could be without a couple of bigs this weekend. Guard Jacob Alsadek has a foot injury and nose guard Jeff Worthy is questionable after getting concussed.

Boise State might get both OT Rees Odhiambo and CB Bryan Douglas back for Saturday’s game. Consider each player day to day for now.

Bowling Green LB DJ Lynch is now questionable for the Wisconsin game on Saturday as he tries to get back from a knee injury.

Central Michigan RB Thomas Rawls pulled a no-show for the Syracuse game and then got arrested the next day. Star wideout Titus Davis remains a question mark for the Kansas game.

Colorado OL Jeromy Irwin is a question mark for the Hawaii matchup as his concussion is evaluated.

Duke will likely be minus guard Lucas Patrick for the Tulane game. He’s doubtful with a leg injury.

Florida State has some defensive issues, with Eddie Goldman, Justin Shanks and Nile Lawrence-Stample all questionable.

Georgia Southern could be minus three starters on Saturday. QB Kevin Ellison has a shoulder injury, TE Nardo Govan is battling a leg problem and DL Jonathan Battle is also have leg issues.

Georgia State got dinged up against Air Force. Several question marks for the Washington game. The most significant potential absences are RB Krysten Hammon and guard Taylor Evans.

Three Marshall starters are question marks for the Akron game. DB AJ Leggett, DL Arnold Blackmon and OL Sebastian Johansson are each day to day right now.

Cluster injuries again for Maryland, a team that has been phenomenally unlucky in this regard for three years running now. Three of their four starting LB’s are questionable for the Syracuse game.

Massachusetts RB Jamal Wilson went down with an ankle injury against Vanderbilt and is out indefinitely.

Miami Florida QB Kevin Olsen has legal problems and could well be finished as a Hurricane.

Michigan is hoping to have WR Devin Funchess back on Saturday, but he’s a question mark as are starting DB’s Jarrod Wilson and Raymon Taylor.

Minnesota QB Mitch Leidner is again questionable as is starting guard Zac Epping.

Tago Smith did a terrific job subbing at QB for Navy this past weekend. but starter Keenan Reynolds should be good to go the for the Rutgers game.

North Carolina has guard problems this week. Landon Turner is likely out for East Carolina and Caleb Peterson is a question mark.

Ohio LB Ben Russell is now out for the season and OL Nick Gibbons is questionable for the Idaho game.

Oklahoma RB Keith Ford is out for West Virginia and will likely miss at least 2-3 weeks.

Oregon State has a couple of starters shaky for the San Diego State game. Guard Garrett Weinreich has a knee problem and fullback Tyler Anderson is nursing a hamstring issue.

Pittsburgh starting DE David Durham’s shoulder has him listed as a question mark for the Iowa game.

Big absence for San Diego State as talented WR Ezell Ruffin has a broken collarbone and will probably not play till November.

South Alabama punter Corliss Waitman could be an eligibility casualty.

South Florida wideout Andre Davis has a bruised sternum and could be out of action Friday vs. UConn.

Texas A&M could rest three banged up starters against SMU. TE Cameron Clear, OL Mike Matthews and LB Jordan Mastrogiovanni are all status up in the air currently.

Toledo will likely have RB Kareem Hunt in action for the Ball State game. But the Rockets now have yet another injury in the secondary with Jordan Martin questionable.

Troy QB Brando Silvers has a concussion and might have to sit out the Georgia game.

Tulane starting left tackle Arturo Uzdavinis is day to day with a shoulder injury, so he is a question mark for the Duke game.

UL Lafayette is missing a key component with WR Jamal Robinson now out indefinitely with a knee injury. LB Chris Hill is also questionable for the Ragin’ Cajuns.

Explosive UNLV WR Marcus Sullivan is bothered by a leg injury and he’s questionable for the Houston game.

Bad news for Utah State as QB Chuckie Keeton is going to miss at least the Arkansas State game. Top target Brandon Swindall is out for the season as well.

Wake Forest left tackle Antonio Ford has an ankle injury and could miss the Army game.

Washington CB Marcus Peters is still listed as suspended, so he’s at best questionable for Georgia State.

Wyoming guard Sam Hardy is questionable with an ankle and his backup Jake Jones is as well as he recovers from an appendectomy.

Big Ten Report - Week 4
By ASAWins.com

GAME OF THE WEEK

Miami (Fla.) at Nebraska (-7)

The Huskers did an excellent job of not letting the trip to Fresno State become a "trap game" a week before Saturday's big matchup with Miami. Nebraska scored two long touchdowns in the first three minutes of the game to set the tone en route to 562 total yards and 55 points. The Huskers had six touchdowns of 20+ yards, including an 86-yard punt return for TD. RB Abdullah had another solid outing as he tallied 110 rush yards on 19 carries with a touchdown. We know Fresno is a bit down this year, but it was a promising performance for the Huskers on the road. Next up Nebraska's 5th ranked offense will get its first real test against the Hurricanes, who rank 10th in total defense. Miami has had two big home wins over FCS Florida A&M and Arkansas State the last two weeks after losing @Louisville to open the season. Freshman QB Brad Kaaya threw for 342 yards and 4 TD in last week's victory, but he's still prone to making the occasional freshman mistake as he already has 5 INT through three games. It helps that he has one of the nation's top RB's, Duke Johnson, sharing the backfield. Johnson has 277 rush yards (6.4 YPC) and two scores this season. Miami's defense vs. Nebraska's offense will be fun to watch. Miami surrenders just 92 rush yards per game on a measly 2.2 YPC. Abdullah will have to work to find space against this Miami front seven. The series is tied 5-5 between these two historical programs, with the last meeting coming in 2001. The Huskers are 51-4 SU hosting their last 55 non-conference opponents, but they are just 1-5 ATS in the last 6 non-conference games against Power Five conference opponents. Miami is just 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference road games as an underdog - including 0-4 SU & ATS as an underdog of seven points or more.

BEST OF THE REST

Utah at Michigan (-5)

After getting embarrassed against rival Notre Dame, the last thing Michigan needed was a scare from a Miami (OH) team that had lost 18 straight games. The Wolverines struggled for the better part of two quarters before pulling away late, 34-10. Despite letting the Redhawks hang around entirely too long, the Wolves still had +262 yards and +15 first downs. They held Miami to just 33 rush yards on 24 carries (1.4 YPC) and forced Redhawk QB Hendrix into just 12-of-26 passing for 165 yards. Michigan's RB Derrick Green led Michigan with 137 rush yards and 2 TD on 22 carries. QB Gardner was had an efficient day, completing 13-of-20 passes for 184 yards and 2 scores. We still have yet to see Michigan put it all together against a quality opponent; but this week's matchup with Pac-12 Utah will be another opportunity for the Wolves. Utah had last week off to prepare for this, their first road trip of the season. The Utes easily dispatched FCS Idaho state, 56-14, in week one and Fresno State, 59-27, in week two. Starting QB Wilson has been very good through two games - 446 pass yards, 6 TD, and 0 INT on 11.7 YPA - albeit against two sub par defenses. Wilson has two top playmakers on offense: RB Devontae Booker (20 carries for 145 yards and 2 TD) and WR Anderson, who is one of the top deep threats in the nation (18.7 YPC in 2013, 27.9 YPC so far this season). These two have only met twice in their history, both in Ann Arbor with both games decided by a total of five points (last meeting was 2008). Utah covered both of those games and is 4-0 ATS against Big Ten squads dating back to 2000. Michigan is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 games hosting non-conference opponents. Utah is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 as an underdog of five points or more.

Indiana (+13) at Missouri

Hopes were high for a bowl run this year, but after a deflating loss to Bowling Green last week, it appears that the Hoosiers still aren't quite ready for primetime. There were 10 lead changes and 87 total points last week, with BG scoring the final touchdown with nine seconds remaining give the Falcons the win. Much like last year, Indiana's offense will have no problem putting up yards and points, but the defense will continue to hold them back. The Hoosiers rushed for 235 yards (6.4 YPC), passed for 347 yards, and were +1 in turnover ratio against BG last week. Unfortunately the defense allowed 571 yards and 39 first downs, including 395 pass yards and 3 pass TD to BG's 2nd string QB. IU goes on the road again this week to face an SEC school off to a hot start. Missouri is off to a 3-0 start and has won each of those games by 20+ points. On the offensive side, QB Maty Mauk is on a torrid pace as he already has 12 pass TD. RB's Hansbrough & Murphy each have 200+ rush yards on an identical 5.5 YPC average. They've picked up right where they left off in 2013, when they averaged 39 PPG and 471 YPG. Defensively the Tigers put together a solid performance against UCF last week, allowing just 299 yards and forcing four turnovers. UCF only managed 90 rush yards on 2.3 YPC. The Tigers will have to avoid looking ahead to next week as they visit South Carolina in a rematch of a double-overtime loss in 2013 - the only team to beat Mizzou in the regular season. These two met last season in Indiana. The game was tied 14-14 midway through the 2nd quarter, but two quick Mizzou scores prior to halftime - including a 49-yard INT return TD - allowing the Tigers to pull away (45-28 Missouri win). Missouri tallied 623 yards on offense and intercepted IU's Sudfeld three times. Indiana is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games and 4-11 ATS in its last 15 road games as a double-digit underdog. Missouri is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games as a double-digit favorite.

Iowa (+6.5) at Pittsburgh

Iowa's mediocre play was enough to overcome FCS Northern Iowa in week one (8-point win) and Ball State in week two (4-point win), but it came back to bite the Hawkeyes last week against bitter-rival Iowa State. Iowa continued to struggled running the football (129 yards on 2.9 YPC) and the Hawks now rank 95th in rushing after three weeks. QB Jake Rudock is not good enough to lead the Hawks to victory on his own - 146 yards and an INT last Saturday - and Iowa will need to figure out its rushing woes if it wants to contend in the Big Ten. Defensively the Hawkeyes were stout against the run vs. ISU, allowing just 82 yards on 26 carries (3.2 YPC), but ISU QB Richardson had a big day. He completed 25-of-37 passes for 255 yards and 2 scores, leading ISU to the three-point win. Iowa will have its hands full when it visits Pitt this weekend. The Panthers come in averaging 344.3 rush yards per game (5th nationally) and 44.7 PPG (18th nationally). Iowa will want to limit Pitt's rushing attack and make sophomore QB Voytik make plays. Voytik has 5 TD and 2 INT so far, but is completing just 58% for 95 YPG through in his first year as a starter. Pitt HC Paul Chryst was formerly the offensive coordinator at Wisconsin, so he has a good idea of what he'll be facing this weekend when Iowa comes to town. These two last met in 2011. Pitt held a 27-10 lead @Iowa, but the Hawkeyes scored the final 21 points in a 31-27 win. Iowa is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine road games against non-Big Ten schools. Iowa is 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 road games as an underdog of five points or more.

Eastern Michigan at Michigan State (-45.5)

Michigan State had last week off after its deflating loss at Oregon in week two. For the better part of two quarters, Michigan State looked like the superior team to Oregon, leading 27-18 midway through the 3rd quarter. The wheels came off after that as Oregon scored the final 28 points of the game in the 46-27 win. MSU QB Cook completed just 29-of-47 passes and had 2 costly INT's while the rushing attack never really got going (123 yards on 3.4 YPC). The defense was good for a while, but Oregon's up-tempo pace clearly exhausted the Spartans in the 90+ degree temperatures. MSU allowed Oregon's Heisman candidate QB Mariota to throw for 318 yards and 3 scores while the Ducks added 173 rush yards. The 46 points allowed by MSU was the most under Dantonio since allowing 49 to #7 Penn State in 2008. Sparty is expecting a big bounce back win and the oddsmakers agree, slotting them as a 45.5-point favorite - the largest spread for MSU against a FBS school under Dantonio. Eastern Michigan takes to the road for the third time in three weeks after losing @Florida (0-65) and @Old Dominion (3-17). There's not a lot of good things to say about EMU. The Eagles rank 124th in yards per game (243.7) and 125th in points per game (11.3). Things aren't much better on defensive side of the ball as they allow 500 YPG and 36.7 PPG. They have a revolving door at QB as neither Brogan Roback nor Reginald Bell have seized the position. Former PSU QB Rob Bolden (17 career starts) led EMU on their lone scoring drive last week and coach Creighton said that Bolden could get the start this week. MSU is 6-0 SU & 4-1 ATS since 1993 against Eastern Michigan, winning by an average of 36.6 PPG. Eastern Michigan is 0-17 SU & 6-11 ATS since 1998 against Big Ten schools.

Massachusetts at Penn State (-26.5)

The Nittany Lions received news last week that they are allowed to go to a bowl game this year and after the win at Rutgers, they're halfway to eligibility. It definitely wasn't easy for the Nittany Lions against Rutgers. They had to battle back from a 10-0 halftime deficit and didn't take the lead until 1:13 remaining in the 4th quarter. PSU, once again, had trouble rushing the football, tallying just 64 yards on 33 carries (1.9 YPC). QB Hackenberg yet again had to lead the Lions to victory with a gritty performance (25-of-44 for 309 yards). Credit the defense for holding the Scarlet Knights to just 294 yards and 15 first downs, while also forcing five interceptions. PSU isn't bulletproof, but an opportunistic defense and a clutch QB will work wonders for a team. If they can figure out their offensive line/rushing issues, the Nittany Lions will be a force to be reckoned with in the Big Ten. They'll have a chance to work on things as they take on Massachusetts this weekend. UMass is 0-3, but credit the Minutemen for playing hard for 60 minutes in all three losses. They were down 13-0 in the 3rd quarter against Boston College (L 7-30), had a chance to upset Colorado (L 38-41), and led the entire game @Vanderbilt before the Commodores took a lead with 1:08 remaining (L 31-34). If those three games are any indication, then UMass will not be a pushover here against the Nittany Lions. Penn State is just 4-8 ATS its last 12 games as a favorite of 20 points or more. Since becoming an FBS school in 2012, the Minutemen are 2-25 SU & 11-16 ATS. They are 5-10 ATS in the last 15 as an underdog of 15 points or more.

Bowling Green at Wisconsin (-27)

The Badgers were off Saturday but probably gained a bit more respect for their next opponent, as Bowling Green upset Indiana. In UW's last game, it wasn't easy to watch as the Badgers struggled to just a 9-3 halftime lead against FCS Western Illinois, but credit the Badgers for coming out hot in the 2nd half and racing to a 37-3 victory. Western Illinois stacked the box against the Badgers, limiting star RB Gordon to just 38 yards on 17 carries. QB McEvoy, who looked helpless in the week one loss to LSU, finally showed why he won the starting job. McEvoy completed 23-of-28 passes, including 17 straight at one point - for 283 yards with 3 TD and 1 INT. It was a promising sight as McEvoy shined and the defense held Western Illinois to just 162 total yards and 11 first downs. Wisconsin will try to get Gordon back on track against this BG defense that allowed 235 rush yards to Indiana last week and ranks 125th nationally in yards allowed. Wisconsin has a better defense than IU and Bowling Green will have a difficult time moving the ball as easily as they did last week against the Hoosiers (571 total yards). The Falcons have been hit hard by the injury bug. They've already lost their starting QB and a starting WR to season-ending injuries and now they could be without four starters on defense for this game. Despite Bowling Green's solid win over Indiana, the oddsmakers aren't giving the Falcons much of a chance this weekend. The line on this game opened with Wisconsin favored by -21 and as of Wednesday morning it had already risen to -27. The Badgers are 61-7 SU at home over the last 10 years - 29-0 SU against non-conference opponents. Wisconsin is 7-3 in its last 10 home games as a favorite of 20 points or more. The Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 20 points or more.

Rutgers (+6) at Navy

Rutgers put together 58 minutes of excellent defense against Penn State last week, keeping the Nittany Lions out of the endzone and preserving a 10-6 lead. PSU went on a 80 yard drive that ended in a touchdown with just 1:49 left to take the lead & seal the victory. A lot of the blame can go square on the shoulders of QB Gary Nova, who had an absolutely abysmal game. Nova completed just 15-of-30 passes for 192 yards with 0 TD and 5 INT. Other than the performance by Nova, there's a lot of positives to take away from the loss. They surrendered just 64 rush yards on 33 carries and held star QB Hackenberg to just 25-of-44 passing with 0 TD and 1 INT. Next up the Scarlet Knights have to prepare for the unique triple-option attack as they travel to Navy to take on the Midshipmen. After losing in week one against Ohio State, Navy has put together back-to-back quality road wins at Temple and Texas State. (2-0 ATS). Their option attack has them 1st nationally in rush yards per game (403 rush YPG) as five players already have 140+ rush yards. They rushed it 57 times for 352 yards against Texas State last week despite not having the services of QB Keenan Reynolds (knee bruise). Reynolds was back at practice during the week and expects to start this game. Navy is just 3-8 ATS as a home favorite of fewer than 10 points. The Midshipmen are just 2-6 ATS in the last eight against B1G teams, including a loss to Ohio State in week one. Rutgers is 15-4-1 ATS in the last 20 as a road underdog, including a SU win over Washington State in week one.

Maryland (+1) at Syracuse

The Terrapins, like Rutgers, let one get away last week. Saturday's 40-37 home loss to West Virginia featured all kinds of drama and wild momentum swings that ended with a WVU 47-yard field goal at the buzzer, giving the Mountaineers the victory. Maryland's defense was overmatched by the up-tempo WVU attack. The Terps allowed 694 total yards and 33 first downs, including 511 passing yards and 4 pass TD to WVU QB Trickett. Maryland QB Brown did all that he could to keep the Terps afloat (241 pass yards, 161 rush yards), but the defense couldn't make plays when it counted. The Terps should be concerned that QB Brown accounted for 161 of their 163 rush yards, and their leading RB rusher has just 142 yards through three games. Maryland will travel to Syracuse this weekend in a rematch of an ACC matchup last year. The Terps tallied just 292 yards and 3 points in last year's home loss to the Orange. Syracuse has been sort of "Jekyll and Hyde" through their first two games. The Orange barely beat FCS Villanova in week one (W 27-26 in OT) but a blowout win over Central Michigan last week (W 40-3) got them back on track. Syracuse had +247 yards and +11 first downs over the Chippewas. QB Hunt had a breakout performance as he accounted for 267 yards and 4 TD. The Orange defense allowed just 34 rush yards on 23 carries (1.5 YPC) and held CMU to just 1-for-10 on 3rd down. With 15 starters returning from last year's team that finished 7-6, we have to believe that the arrow is pointing up for this team. Syracuse is 6-3 ATS in their last nine home games. Maryland is just 1-5 ATS in the week following the West Virginia rivalry game.

Texas State at Illinois (-14)

The Illini looked completely outmatched in their trip to Washington last week. Two early Illinois turnovers were returned for TD and that allowed the Huskies to go into halftime with a 38-12 lead. Illinois didn't put up much of a fight in the 2nd half as the Huskies coasted to a 44-19 victory. Illinois managed just 15 first downs (1-for-11 on 3rd down) and rushed for just 72 yards on 26 carries (2.8 YPC) despite playing a Washington defense that looked very vulnerable through its first two games. It's beginning to be a worrisome trend for Illinois - along with a number of other Big Ten squads - that they can't muster much of a rushing attack. The Illini have failed to exceed 78 rush yards in a game through three weeks. This weekend's opponent, Texas State, ranks 116th against the rush, so if Illinois can't get a rushing attack going this weekend, then it's really time to panic. The Bobcats defeated FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff in week one and lost to Navy last week. This will be their first road trip of the season and only their 2nd game ever against a Big Ten school (42-0 loss to Minnesota in 2002). Texas State has had three games against Power 5 schools over the past three years - all against Texas Tech. They are 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS, losing by an average of 38 PPG. Illinois is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games as a double-digit home favorite.

San Jose State vs. Minnesota (-8.5)

Minnesota didn't put up much of a fight in its trip to TCU last week. The Horned Frogs jumped out to a 24-0 halftime lead and cruised to a 30-7 victory. It became very apparent that the Gophers won't be able to contend in the Big Ten this year with their current passing attack. QB Leidner, who is a strong runner, isn't going to get it done through the air. He completed just 12-of-26 passes for 151 yards with 0 TD and 3 INT. His lack of progress last week repeatedly killed drives (Minnesota was 3-for-16 on 3rd down). Granted, he was a bit hobbled by a leg injury, but he was healthy enough to start. Through the first two weeks, Minnesota's rushing attack was solid enough to offset their passing deficiency. Against TCU, they were held to just 99 rush yards (2.5 YPC) and the 120th ranked passing attack couldn't lift them up. Next up they host San Jose State for the second consecutive year. Last year Minnesota held just a 20-17 halftime lead. The Gophers scored the first 23 points in the 2nd half and outgained SJSU 193-30 in that span. San Jose State was blown out by Auburn in their last game two weeks ago. The Spartans allowed Auburn to gain 358 rush yards and 26 first downs in the 59-13 rout. Minnesota is just 4-12 ATS in its last 16 when favored by a touchdown or more. San Jose State is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games, but one of those losses was last year at Minnesota.

Western Illinois at Northwestern (no line)

Northwestern has dropped nine of its last 10 games, dating back to last season. They're 0-2 this year, but appear to be a solid bet to notch their first win against FCS Western Illinois this weekend. They had last week off after losing at home to Northern Illinois on September 6th. Northwestern continues to lose in heartbreaking fashion. Five of their seven losses in 2013 were by 10 points or fewer and they've already dropped two such games this season. Northern Illinois came into Evanston and handed Northwestern a 23-15 loss. NIU rushed for 221 yards on 4.0 YPC while QB Hare tossed 2 TD on just 10 attempts. Northwestern was stalled on offense as they totaled just 72 rush yards on 37 carries (1.9 YPC). To make matters worse, QB Siemian left in the 4th quarter with a leg injury. Siemian is back and will start on Saturday. Western Illinois traveled to Camp Randall to take on fellow Big Ten member Wisconsin on September 6th. They managed just 162 yards and 11 first downs in the 37-3 loss. Northwestern has won seven straight against FCS opponents by an average of 27 points per game.

Southern Illinois at Purdue (no line)

Purdue had a solid effort last week as a 30-point underdog against Notre Dame. The Boilermakers played on par with the Irish for the better part of two quarters before ND pulled away for the 30-14 win. It was a bit of a "moral victory" after Purdue got blown out by Central Michigan on September 6th - the same Central Michigan that just lost to Syracuse by 37 points. QB Etling had a solid outing as he completed 27-of-40 passes for 234 yards with 2 TD along with 2 INT. Purdue's defense had no answer for ND QB Golson, who accounted for 315 total yards and 3 TD. Purdue still appears to be one of the bottom-feeders in the Big Ten, and after this week against FCS Southern Illinois, they'll likely be the underdog in every game. Southern Illinois is ranked 13th in the FCS and has outscored its opponents 133-44. We'll find out Saturday if Purdue is better than the 13th ranked FCS program.

Ohio State - Bye Week

The Buckeyes' offense finally broke out against Kent State last week to the tune of 66 points, 33 first downs, and 628 yards. QB J.T. Barrett tossed for 312 yards and 6 TD, gaining some much-needed confidence as the Buckeyes inch closer to conference play. The defense was outstanding as well, holding Kent State to just 126 yards and 10 first downs while pitching a shutout. We know that it was against a lowly MAC program, but it was a much needed dominant performance after the home loss to VA Tech on September 6th. The Buckeyes will take this week off before they face Cincinnati on Sept. 27.

College Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Oklahoma Sooners at West Virginia Mountaineers

Oklahoma had little trouble dispatching it's three non-conference opponents outscoring Louisiana Tech, Tulsa, Tennessee by an average 33.7 points/game. QB Trevor Knight tossing 860 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT guides this offense with the help of a ground crew that has churned out 196.7 RYG, 11 TD's. The trio of Ford, Ross, Perine do most of the ground work and have produced 9 TD's on a combined average 5.8 YPC. OU will be without leading rusher Ford but shouldn't take much of a hit with the likes of Ross (132 RY, 3 TD), Perine (177 RY, 1 TD) taking up the slack. On the defensive side, Sooners' allow 11.0 PPG on 208.7 passing and a stingy 86.7 rushing yards/game. West Virginia with a tougher opening schedule put forth a solid showing in a losing effort against Alabama before knocking off both Towson, Maryland. QB Clint Trickett passing for 1224 yds, 7 TD, 1 INT leads Mountaineers offense which generates 39.0 PPG on 564.3 yards with RB Rushel Shell contributing 207 RY, 2 TD. Mountaineers have allowed it's three opponents 23.3 PPG on 204.7 passing, 164.3 rushing yards/game. OU on a 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS stretch dating back to last season should cruise to victory. Consider laying the points knowing Sooners' are 6-3 ATS in it's last nine true road games, have cashed five straight in hostile territory as chalk of 7.5 or less and that Mountaineers enter 1-6 ATS vs the conference, 4-15 ATS in Morgantown vs a team with a winning road record.

Clemson Tigers at Florida State Seminoles

Top-ranked Florida State puts an 18-0 (12-6 ATS) streak on the line when they host Clemson Tigers in an ACC opener for both squads. Seminoles shellacking Clemson 51-14 last year have opened -20.5 point favorites to repeat the crushing. Seminoles ridding a 14-1 SU stretch in the friendly confines of Doak Campbell Stadium aren't about to be upended by Tigers. However, covering against the conference foe could be a challenge. Keep in mind, Noles' haven’t been awe-inspiring to-date barely beating Oklahoma State 37-31 as an 18-point nuetral-site fave followed by a 37-12 home win over Citadel laying a whopping 58.5 points which moved it's ATS record to 9-5 ATS in lined game in front of the home crowd. It's Buyer Beware - Tigers have cashed 12-of-17 against conference rivals and own a profitable 7-2 ATS mark in the series

Oregon Ducks at Washington State Cougars

Ducks should have little trouble staying undefeated against Cougars and it's one dimensional offense that relies strictly on QB Conner Halliday's arm (1465 PY, 12 TD, 5 Int). The WAZZU pivot has put up impressive numbers. But tossing 5 TD in a loss to Rutgers, chuck 1 TD, 2 picks and lose to Nevada then fire 6 TD, 2 picks in a win vs FCS school Portland State got to question if Cougars' defense holds up vs 'Quack Attack' which shredded WAZZU for 336 passing, 383 rushing yards in last years 62-38 victory and also snagged 4 interception. Expect Ducks to make it eight straight SU wins vs the conference rival. However, bettors could get tripped up with Ducks 23.5 point road favorites. Ducks are a cash-draining 0-4 ATS the past four meetings and just 4-6 against the betting line last ten encounters. Ducks are also on a 3-7 ATS skid laying double digits, 1-5 ATS slide vs conference.

Residence In-zone
By Robbie Gainous

The third week of college football is in the books and we have our sights set squarely on Week 4. That means it is time once again for our College Football System of the Week. This week our College Football System of the Week highlights an SEC team looking to remain perfect both straight up and against the spread versus this week's opponent.

Last week SMU fell to North Texas 43 to 6 scoring their only points of the 2014 season on the last play of the game and it was a Hail Mary on several fronts for this Mustangs team. SMU head coach June Jones resigned following that loss. His Mustangs opened the season losing to Baylor 45 to 0 and there was little hope on the horizon for Jones he did the only thing he could do step down after such a poor start to the season.

For the Mustangs it doesn't get any easier this week they face a Texas A&M team that has not missed a beat even with the loss of Johnny Football to the NFL. In fact QB Kenny Hill has been amazing throwing eleven touchdowns and no INT's so far this season. Texas A&M opened the season winning on the road in Columbia and doing so with ease. Texas A&M was installed as nine-point underdogs on the road at South Carolina with many of the so-called experts not giving Hill and Company much of a chance but in the end they walked away with an impressive 52 to 28 drubbing of a solid South Carolina team.

The Aggies won last week versus Rice but failed to cover the 30.5-point spread winning 38 to 10. Whether the players for the Aggies had money on the game or they were just aware of the fact that they did not play to their potential in that game head coach Kevin Sumlin mentioned how disappointed his players were in the locker room following that win. He stated they were not at all happy with the way they played.

This week's college system plays on road teams that are on a roll facing a team that just gave up more than five touchdowns. The qualifying factor for our play on team they must have won back-to-back games by at least four touchdowns. Texas A&M and SMU qualify based on the system parameters and SMU can look forward to another long afternoon as Hill and Company take up residence in the Mustangs endzone.

SYSTEM: Play ON college football road teams coming off back-to-back wins by at least twenty-eight points facing a team that is coming off a game in which they gave up at least thirty-seven points. This system has a record of 44-12 ATS since 2002 covering the spread by 7.09 points per game.

The Mustangs have an 88 to 6 point deficit having played just two games so far this season and Texas A&M has shown no mercy when facing this SMU squad. Texas A&M is a perfect 4-0 both straight up and against the spread winning by an average of 51 to 10 with an average line of twenty-points. No fear or hesitation backing the Aggies on the road their last visit here two years ago they won easily 48 to 3.

With all the system parameters met this week's Cajun Sports NCAA Football System Game of the Week calls for a play ON the Texas A&M Aggies on the road at the SMU Mustangs. Texas A&M Aggies minus the points on Saturday.

ACC Report - Week 4
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech

Sometimes we can get a little carried away with past trends. For instance, Georgia Tech is 1-3-1 ATS in its past five road games, and 2-8-1 in its past 11 road games against a team with a winning home record. They're also 0-7 ATS in its past seven against a team with a winning mark. Virginia Tech is also 6-1 ATS in its past seven home games against a team with a winning road record. The Hokies were tripped up at home last week by East Carolina, though, which was a team with an 0-1 record on the road. The head-to-head trends seem to favor the Yellow Jackets in a big way, as Georgia Tech is 4-0 ATS in its past four trips to Blacksburg. The road team is also 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings in this series, and the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the past eight.

Iowa at Pittsburgh

Iowa hits the road after a setback at home to Iowa State on a last-second FG. That performance followed up an uninspiring win against Ball State. While the Hawkeyes are one of eight teams in FBS which has yet to allow a rushing touchdown, that will be put to the test against the Panthers, who are averaging 344.3 rushing yards and 44.7 points per game. RB James Conner is averaging 181.3 rushing yards per game, and will be a key contributor in this one. He needs just 21 yards to supplant former Pitt Heisman Trophy winner Tony Dorsett for the most rushing yards in school history through the first four games. Pitt has not started out 4-0 since 2000, but as a favorite by nearly a touchdown, they're expected to do just that.

Maryland at Syracuse

Maryland is now a Big Ten member, but these two were conference mates in the ACC just last year. The Terps have covered just seven of their past 22 against ACC foes, while the Orange is 8-3-1 ATS in its past 12 home games, 9-2 ATS in the past 11 non-conference games and 5-1 ATS in the past six against teams with a winning overall record. As far as the total is concerned, most signs point to the over. The over is 8-2 in Maryland's past 10 against the ACC, 5-2 in their past seven on the road, and 5-2 in their past seven non-conference tilts. The over is 9-4-1 in the past 14 non-conference battles for 'Cuse, and 7-2 in their past nine in the month of September. However, a closer look shows the over barely cashed in the home opener for the Orange, a double-overtime thriller over Villanova, and the under cashed in last week's 40-3 win at Central Michigan.

Tulane at Duke

Duke went to the ACC title game last season, and they have been to bowl games in back-to-back years. But they haven't started a season 4-0 in 20 years. They're favored by 17 points Saturday, and expected to remain unbeaten. If they wish to keep their record unblemished, they'll have to shut down Tulane frosh RB Sherman Badie, who ranks fifth in the land with 9.4 yards per carry. Duke's defense has been stout, allowing just 11.0 points per game, including just three in last week's lopsided win over Kansas. The 'under' is 2-0 for the Blue Devils this season.

North Carolina at East Carolina

The total is set at 67 for this in-state battle in Greenville, so the scoreboard operator at Dowdy-Ficklen better be ready. After last week's surprising road win in Blacksburg, the Tar Heels better be ready, too. The Pirates likely will offer no quarter. ECU is a two-point favorite here, and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. However, UNC has generally been favored in this series, and the Heels are 6-1 ATS in the past seven encounters. UNC leads the all-time series 12-3-1, winning two of the three battles in Greenville. However, UNC is just 3-8 ATS in the past 11 road games, while ECU has covered each of its past five at home, and their past four against ACC foes. However, East Carolina is just 3-13 ATS in the past 16 against a team with a winning overall record. Don't look too much into that, however, as they have consecutive covers against Virginia Tech and South Carolina, teams which have overall winning marks.

Louisville at Florida International

The Golden Panthers can't do much worse than last season's meeting in Louisville, when the Cardinals carved up the Golden Panthers 72-0. While FIU looks for revenge, they'll be playing an angry Cards' team which lost its ACC road opener by a 23-21 count at Virginia last weekend. FIU rushed out to a 16-0 lead at home against Pitt only to fall behind and lose 42-25. Louisville has won 13 consecutive games against non-conference opponents, and they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven against a team with a losing record, and 1-4 ATS in their past five on the road against a team with a losing home mark. While FIU has been pretty terrible over the past couple of seasons, they have covered four straight, including last weekend's game vs Pitt, and they're 4-1 ATS in the past five at home.

Virginia at Brigham Young

Virginia has struggled against the number in recent seasons, but not this year. The Cavaliers enter this game 3-0 ATS in three games this season. BYU is favored by two touchdowns, and they are 2-1 ATS overall this season. However, while they won 33-25 last weekend against Houston in their home opener, the Cougars failed to cover. If UVA wants to be successful, they'll need to shut down BYU's red-hot red zone offense. They have managed 10 touchdowns and three field goals in 14 trips inside the opponent 20 this season. UVA has scored 44 points off turnovers while posting just 13 off teams' miscues last season. The under is 2-1 for both teams this season.

Miami (Fla.) at Nebraska

These two rivals renew acquaintances at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln for the first time since 2002. If Miami is to pull the upset, they'll need a much better road performance from freshman QB Brad Kaaya, who lost his first road start at Louisville in a 31-13 setback. Miami has rebounded for wins against Florida A&M and Arkansas State, but the competition will be turned way back up this weekend. Nebraska struggled at home against McNeese State two weeks ago, barely scratching out a 31-24 victory in the final minute. However, they hit the road last week and humbled Fresno State 55-19. UM is 2-9 ATS in the past 11 overall, and 1-5 ATS in their past six against teams with a winning record. They're also just 1-5 ATS in the past six on the road. Nebraska is 1-4 ATS in the past five at home, but 4-1 ATS in the past five against non-conference foes, including last week's win.

Clemson at Florida State

Clemson heads to Tallahassee with revenge on their mind after getting thrashed soundly at Death Valley last season. Florida State will play the first two quarters with QB Jameis Winston on the bench after head coach Jimbo Fisher suspended him for shouting an obscenity on campus in public earlier this week. QB Sean Maguire is expected to take the reins of the offense. Clemson has already played one game on the road against a quality opponent, and they failed in that test, losing at Georgia 45-21 when they could not shut down RB Todd Gurley. They came back to throttle South Carolina State 73-7 before the bye last week. FSU opened with a shaky win and non-cover against Oklahoma State, 37-31, in a neutral-site game before winning just 37-12 against The Citadel two weeks ago despite being favored by more than eight touchdowns. FSU is favored by 17 points in this game despite being 0-2 ATS this season, and that's likely due to their 51-14 dismantling of Clemson on the road last season.

Other ACC teams in action

Maine at Boston College
Army at Wake Forest
Presbyterian at North Carolina State

NCAAF Week 4

Pitt rushed for 300+ yards in all three wins this year; they outrushed BC 302-142, inpressive after Eagles whacked USC in next game. Panthers are 5-2 in last seven games as home favorite. Iowa ran ball for just 131 ypg in 2-1 start, scoring 17 in each of its last two games, loss to Iowa State, fortunate win over Ball State. Hawkeyes are 3-6 in last nine games as a road dog. ACC home favorites are 2-6 vs spread in non-league games; Big 14 road underdogs are 3-4.

Third straight tough game for East Carolina squad that waxed Tar Heels 55-31 in Chapel Hill LY, gaining 603 TY as they ended four-game series skid. Pirates won at Va Tech last week, lost 33-23 at South Carolina, but they outgained Gamecocks 453-441. ECU is 9-6 as home favorite under Ruffin; they've got senior QB with 26 starts. UNC is 0-4 as a road dog under Fedora; they were outgained 509-394 by San Diego State at home in last game, but picked off last-minute pass in end zone.

Hard to tell much about Utah squad that hammered pair of cupcakes to open season; they're 3-8 vs spread in last 11 road games, 7-9 as road dog since '09. Michigan is already -7 in turnovers; they were only up 17-10 at half vs Miami O last week, but pulled away late, running ball for 276 yards- Wolverines should be concerned with passing game averaging only 194.3 ypg. they're 11-7 as home favorites under Hoke. Pac-12 teams are 2-8 vs spread on road, but covered only time they were underdog.

Middle Tennessee won five of last six games with Memphis, winning the last three meetings by 2-18-7 points. Blue Raiders gave up 718 yards in wild OT win over Western Kentucky last week, after losing 35-24 week before at Minnesota, despite outgaining Gophers 445-351. Memphis is 8-12 as home favorite since '05; they lost 42-35 at UCLA in last game, as Bruins threw for 396 yards. AAC home teams are 2-8 vs spread in their non-league games. C-USA road underdogs are 11-5 vs spread.

Rutgers won four of last five games vs Navy, but last meeting was in '11; Scarlet Knights had bitter 13-10 loss to Penn State in Big 14 debut last week, throwing five INTs (-4 TOs) in game they led 10-0 at half. Navy scored 66 points in winning last two games, after giving Buckeyes good battle in opener. Middies are 10-14 as home favorites under Niumatalolo. Rutgers is 18-8 in last 26 games as road dog, 6-2 under Flood; both their I-A games this season were decided by a FG.

Alabama won last three games with Florida by average score of 34-10, as Gators lost 31-6/31-3 in last two visits here. Florida was fortunate last week to beat Kentucky in OT, tying game on last-second play to force OT. Gators covered four of last five games as road dog, are 8-5 over last decade in that role. Bama is 3-0 but hasn't covered yet this year; they're 16-14 in last 30 games as home favorite, but 17-9 in last 26 SEC games. First road game for Gators (7-6 vs spread on road under Muschamp).

Virginia Tech won eight of last ten games with Georgia Tech, winning last four (dogs 3-1 vs spread); only one of Hokies' last five series wins was by more than 7 points. GT lost last three visits here by 3-7-3; they were held under 200 yards rushing in last two series games. Hokies were upset by ECU last week after Tech had upset Ohio State week before-- they're 5-12-1 in last 18 games as a home favorite. GT is 2-6 in its last eight games as a road underdog.

Florida State QB Winston is suspended for first half of this game, which you'd think means FSU will try to run ball, shorten game for backup QB Maguire, who threw 21 passes LY and is over his head here. Seminoles are 10-2-1 in last 13 games as home favorite; they've on three of last four vs Clemson, winning 49-37/51-14 last two years. Tigers are 1-7 in their last seven visits here, losing last three by 12-3-14; they've covered three of last four visits here- they lost 45-21 at Georgia in first road game.

Oregon State (-8) won 34-30 at San Diego State LY, passing ball for 367 yards; Beavers are 7-12 as home favorites since '09, 6-11 out of Pac-12- they have big league game next week at USC. Aztecs lost tight game at North Carolina despite outgaining UNC 509-394; they're 6-3 as a road dog under Long. Pac-12 home favorites are 6-4 vs spread outsude league play. Mountain West road underdogs are 6-8 as underdogs, 3-5 when on foreign soil. OSU has senior QB with 33 career starts.

LSU won its last 14 games with Mississippi State, covering last four by average score of 36-14; Bulldogs covered twice in last eight visits here-- five of their last six losses in Death Valley were by 18+ points. MSU is 5-10 as road dog under Mullen, but he has 8 starters back on both sides of ball and mobile QB with 10 career starts. LSU is 11-15-1 as favorite at home since '10; they shut out pair of cupcakes in last two games, after the comeback win on neutral field over Wisconsin to start season.

Miami is playing frosh QB who completed 60% of his passes with four INTs in first three games, including 31-13 loss at Louisville; Hurricanes are 1-4-1 in last six games as a road dog. Nebraska has four new starters on OL; they're 12-5 in last 17 games as home favorites. ACC underdogs are 4-1 vs spread out of conference, 2-1 on road, Big 14 home favorites are 5-8 vs spread. Cornhuskers have conference opener with Illinois on deck, but primetime on ABC makes this the bigger game.

Oklahoma won but didn't cover last two games with West Virginia; they gave up 778 yards in wild 50-49 win here two years ago, then ran ball for 316 yards in 16-7 home win LY. Sooners are 13-10 in last 23 games as a road favorite. Mountaineers gained 694 yards in 40-37 wn vs Maryland last week; senior QB Trickett is completing 75.4% of his passes- he was 29-45/365 in 33-23 loss to Alabama. over last decade, WVU is 3-4 when a home underdog- they're 9-7 overall as a dog under Holgorsen.

Cal lost last three visits to Tucson by 1-15-4 points; underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in last five series games played here. Arizona won three of last four games vs Cal- last two series games were won by total of six points; Wildcats are 6-7 as home favorites under RichRod- Nevada threw ball for 321 yards against them last week. Unusual amount of rain in Tucson this week; wonder if it disrupted their preparation? Bears are 3-7 in last ten games as a road dog, but they've already won at Northwestern this year.

Notes on rest of card

-- Missouri ran ball for 280 yards, outgained Indiana 623-475 in 45-28 win at Indiana LY. Tigers are 13-8 in last 21 games as home favorite.
-- Since 2012, Penn State is 9-4 as a home favorite.
-- Marshall is 1-9-1 as a road favorite under Holliday. Akron is 2-6 as a home underdog under Terry Bowden.
-- Favorites covered five of last seven Ball State-Toledo games; average total in last five series games is 62.2. Ball won 31-24/34-27 in last two series meetings.

-- Syracuse is 13-8 in its last 21 games as a home favorite ACC favorites are 2-6 vs spread at home, in non-league games.
-- Idaho is 4-11 in its last 15 games as a road underdog. Ohio Bobcats are 8-11 in last 19 games as a home favorite.
-- Kansas is 0-4 as home favorite under Weis. Jayhawks lost 41-3 last week at Duke. Central Michigan lost 40-3 at home to Syracuse.
-- Georgia lost 38-35 at South Carolina, plays Tennessee next week; this is sandwich game for them. Troy lost 38-35 to a I-AA team last week.

-- Wildcat in NY Post used Wisconsin (-27) as a selection this week; he is a pretty good 'capper. Bowling Green allowed 702-582 yards in its two games vs I-A teams this season.
-- Tulane is 12-10-1 in last 23 games as a road dog- they lost first road game this year in OT at Tulsa. Duke covered nine of last ten games as a home favorite.
-- Over last decade, Army is 0-6 as a road favorite. Wake Forest is young team, 3rd-youngest in country- they're playing a true freshman QB.
-- San Jose State is 9-4 in last thirteen games as a road dog. Minnesota is 5-2 in last seven game as home fave- they start league play next week.

-- Michigan State covered four of last five games with Eastern Michigan.
-- South Carolina won last five games with Vanderbilt (2-3 vs spread)-- they've won six of last seven here (one win by more than 18 points).
-- Wyoming scored 45 points in first three games, playing a I-AA team and service academy. FAU is 0-2 as road dog this year, 11-4 in their last 15 tries as a road dog.
-- Since '06, Hawai'i is 16-13 as a road underdog. Colorado is 4-2 in last six games as a home favorite.

-- Georgia State is 1-2, despite scoring 38-31-38 points in in three games. Washington beat I-AA Eastern Washington 59-52 earlier this month.
-- Southern Miss lost two games vs I-AA teams by combined 102-12; in between, they beat I-AA Alcorn State 26-20 in between.
-- Georgia Southern lost two games to ACC teams by combined total of five points. South Alabama is 1-4 as a home dog since moving to I-A.
-- SMU changed head coaches since its last game- they lost last two tilts with Texas A&M by combined score of 90-15.

-- Houston is 20-10 in last 30 games as home favorite, 6-5 under Levine. Mountain West dogs are 6-8 vs spread in non-league games, 3-5 on road.
-- Oregon won its last seven games with Washington State, but Coogs are 4-0 vs spread in last four; Ducks won last three visits here, by 25-20-49.
-- BYU (+2) lost 19-16 at Virginia LY, despite outgaining Cavs 362-223 on a rainy day. ACC non-conference underdogs are 4-1 vs spread.
-- Illinois is 6-9 in last fifteen games as home favorite, 4-4 with Beckman as coach. Texas State is 5-7 as a road underdog under Franchione.

-- Rice is 11-4 vs spread in last fifteen games as home favorite. C-USA teams are 18-7 vs spread out of conference, 8-1 at home.
-- Louisville beat FIU 72-0 LY. Panthers gave up 321 rushing yards in 42-25 home loss to Pitt last week; they lost at home to I-AA Bethune-Cookman 14-12 in season opener.
-- Cincinnati won last eight games (6-2 vs spread) vs Miami O, which is 0-5 vs spread in series games here. Miami was down only 17-10 at half in Ann Arbor last week but got buried in second half, 34-10.
-- Since 2008, Northern Illinois is 10-3 as a road underdog; they've won at Northwestern, UNLV last two weeks, Arkansas ran for 438 yards in 49-28 win at Texas Tech last week.

-- Since 2006, Arkansas State is 2-6 as a home underdog. Utah State covered five of last seven games as a road favorite.
-- New Mexico (-11) beat New Mexico State 66-17 LY, just second win for Lobos in last five series games. Aggies are 3-6 in last nine games as a home underdog.
-- UL-Lafayette was outscored 104-35 in losing its two I-A games so far this season. Sun Belt underdogs are 8-5 out of conference, 4-2 on road.

Armadillosports.com

Pac-12 Report - Week 4
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Hawaii at Colorado

Colorado played well last week in a two-touchdown loss to Arizona State, covering the spread in the process. The Buffaloes are not quite back yet, but a resounding win against Hawaii as an eight-point favorite would be a nice start. It won't be easy, though, as the Warriors have covered each of its first two against Pac-12 teams this season, narrowly losing to Washington Aug. 30 by a 17-16 score (17-point dog), while dropping a 38-30 decision to Oregon State (10-point dog). In fact, Hawaii is 3-0 ATS this season, they have covered five straight, and they are 8-0 ATS in its past eight non-conference affairs. Bettors might look to the total, as the under is 2-1 for both teams this season. The under is 4-1 in Hawaii's past five against Pac-12 foes, and the under is 7-2 in Colorado's past nine against Mountain West opponents, including their opener against Colorado State.

Utah at Michigan

Utah packs up and heads east to meeting Michigan in the Big House, and Vegas has the Wolverines as a favorite by just over a field goal in most shops. While Utah is 4-0 ATS in the past four against Big Ten foes, and 35-17-2 ATS in their past 54 non-conference tilts, their 2-6 ATS record in the past eight road games is rather glaring. Consider Michigan is 8-3 ATS in its past 11 home games, and the home team could be a very popular play. Don't forget, though, that Michigan has failed to cover in its past seven against Pac-12 opponents, they're just 1-5 ATS in the past six against non-conference opponents, and the Wolverines have managed to cover just two of their past seven against teams with a winning record. Maybe the over is the better targeted play. Utah is 5-1 in the past six non-conference battles, and 4-1 in their past five overall - including both games this season. The under has cashed in each of Michigan's past two, though, and that includes last week's lackluster 34-10 win against Miami (Ohio).

California at Arizona

The way Cal played last season, it is hard to believe they would come into this game unbeaten, but they have played extremely well and appear to be trending upward in a big way. Still, this will be a big test for a team which is 3-11 ATS in its past 14 games against a team with a winning record and 2-12 ATS in the past 14 Pac-12 games. Cal is also just 2-6 ATS in the past eight on the road. However, one of those covers came in their opener at Northwestern. Arizona hasn't exactly shredded the spread, either, going 1-4 ATS in the past five conference tilts, and 3-9 ATS in the past 12 against a team with a winning overall mark. And trends are conflicting in this series, with the home team going 6-1 ATS in the past seven, but Cal covered four of the past five. Where the trends are in agreement is the under, which has cashed in six of the past eight meetings. The under is also 6-2-1 in Cal's past nine conference games, 5-1 in their past six road games (including Aug. 30 at Northwestern), and 7-3-1 in the past 11 overall. The under is 7-1 in Arizona's past eight at home, and 19-6-1 in their past 26 home games against a team with a winning road record.

San Diego State at Oregon State

The Aztecs nearly pulled up a huge upset on the road two weeks ago in Chapel Hill, falling short against North Carolina. They have had two weeks to think about Oregon State, a team they also frittered away a fourth-quarter lead against last season. San Diego State appeared primed for an upset because Oregon State somehow found a way to pick up a 34-30 win. The Aztecs come in rested and with plenty of motivation. They're a 10-point underdog, but that might be a bit much considering Oregon State is 0-2 ATS so far this season, while SDSU has covered six of its past seven, including 2-0 ATS this season.

Oregon at Washington State

For whatever reason, the Ducks just haven't seemed to have a lot of luck in Pullman over the years. They head into this one 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings with the Cougars, and 1-4 ATS in their past five trips to the Palouse. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings in this series. That might scare many off the 23-point number, but Oregon is 13-3 ATS in their past 16 road games, and 33-16-2 ATS in the past 51 against a team with a losing record. Washington State has done next to nothing this season, losing at home to Rutgers and tumbling on the road at Nevada before taking their frustrations out on poor Portland State in a 59-21 win last weekend to finally cover for the first time. The over is 2-1 for the Cougs, and that might be the play here, even at 75 points. Oregon has scored 46 or more points in each of their three games, including against Michigan State's vaunted defense, and the over is 2-1 in their three outings, too. The over has connected in five of the past six in this series, and five of the past six meetings in Pullman.

Other Pac-12 team in action

Georgia State at Washington (Pac-12 Network, 6:00 p.m.)

Florida at Alabama
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

For the first time in three seasons, Alabama and Florida will square off Saturday afternoon at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide will be seeking a fourth consecutive win over the Gators, who haven't beaten 'Bama since a 35-24 triumph in the 2008 SEC Championship Game at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta.

As of Thursday, most books had Alabama (3-0 straight up, 0-2-1 against the spread) listed as a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 52. Gamblers can take UF on the money line for a +500 return (risk $100 to win $500).

Nick Saban's team opened the season with a 33-23 non-covering win over West Va. at the Ga. Dome. Alabama never led by more than 10 points and came nowhere close to taking the cash as a 22-point favorite. T.J. Yeldon ran 23 times for 126 yards and two touchdowns, while Derrick Henry produced 113 rushing yards and one TD on 17 totes. Blake Sims threw for 250 yards with Amari Cooper making 12 catches for 130 yards.

Since then, 'Bama has recorded a pair of lopsided victories at home over FAU (41-0) and Southern Miss (52-12). The win over the Owls was a 'no-play' because weather forced the game to be postponed before 55 minutes of play. The line had closed at 'Bama -42.

Sims has secured the starting QB job ahead of FSU transfer Jacob Coker. Sims has completed 47-of-63 throws (74.6%) for 626 passing yards with a 4/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's also rushed for 102 yards and two scores while averaging 7.3 yards per carry.

Yeldon has rushed for 225 yards and two TDs, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Henry has 209 rushing yards and one score while averaging 6.3 YPC. Cooper leads the SEC in receptions (33) and receiving yards (454) and has a pair of TD catches.

After its opener vs. Idaho was postponed due to lightning, Florida (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) opened the season with a 65-0 clubbing of Eastern Michigan. The Gators dealt out cream-cheese treatment as 40.5-point favorites.

Will Muschamp's squad is coming off a 36-30 win over Kentucky in triple overtime. UF never threatened to cover the 17.5-point spread at The Swamp, while the 'over' hit for a second straight week thanks to the OTs (more on those details below...).

Matt Jones rushed 29 times for 156 yards, including the game-winning TD plunge from one yard out in triple OT. Jeff Driskel threw for 295 yards and three touchdowns, while DeMarcus Robinson enjoyed a breakout performance with 15 receptions for 216 yards and a pair of scores.

With the exception of missing a number of throws in the first half against UK, Driskel has looked solid in new offensive coordinator Kurt Roper's hurry-up offense that's better suited to his skills. The fourth-year junior has connected on 63.6 percent of his passes for 543 yards with a 4/1 TD-INT ratio. Robinson, a true sophomore, has emerged as the team's go-to WR with 21 catches for 339 yards and three TDs.

After missing most of last season with a knee injury, Jones has rushed for 221 yards and a pair of scores with a 6.0 YPC average. Sophomore Kelvin Taylor has 132 rushing yards and two TDs while averaging 5.7 YPC.

Dating back to last season, Alabama is mired in a 0-5-2 ATS slump. As a home favorite during Saban's tenure, 'Bama owns a 23-24-1 spread record.

On Muschamp's watch, UF has posted a 4-3 spread record as a road underdog.

The 'over' is 2-0 for both of these schools this season. Remember, wagers on the total were ruled 'no action' in 'Bama's win over FAU.

Florida hasn't tasted a victory in Tuscaloosa since 1998, although that stat is a bit misleading in that it has only played at Alabama twice since then. Both of those trips to T-town were miserable ones for UF. In 2005, the biggest moment of Mike Shula's tenure was a beatdown to the Gators by a 31-3 count in a game that was over in the first quarter.

In 2010, Urban Meyer inexplicably had John Brantley running the option and taking big hits in a 31-6 setback.

CBS will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

B.E's Bonus Nuggets

Bettors backing the UF-UK game to stay 'under' 54 combined points were delivered a gut-wrenching defeat. The Gators' win went to the extra sessions with the score knotted at 20-20.

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings between UF and 'Bama, the Tide has compiled an 8-1-1 spread record.

When Florida State announced the suspension of QB Jameis Winston for the first half of Saturday's game against Clemson on Wednesday morning, books yanked the line of 19.5 or 20 off the board. When the number re-surfaced that afternoon, it was at 16.5 or 17.

Duke is on a 9-1-1 ATS roll in its last 11 games as a home favorite going back to a 2011 win over Tulane both SU and ATS. The Green Wave returns to Durham this weekend as a 17-point underdog.

Arizona State QB Taylor Kelly has been ruled out of next Thursday's home game vs. UCLA. Kelly's foot injury could keep him out for much longer.

West Virginia starting cornerback Daryl Worley has been suspended indefinitely for a violation of team rules. Worley had 17 tackles and a team-high two interceptions through three games. A report on Wednesday revealed that Worley is facing a battery charge against a woman.

Utah State QB Chuckie Keeton is out for Saturday's game at Arkansas St. due to a knee injury. The Aggies are hopeful that Keeton, who saw his 2013 season ended by an ACL tear, will be able to return for an Oct. 3 game at BYU after an open date. Keeton has enjoyed an outstanding career, but he's struggled through three games with a 2/4 TD-INT ratio. He came into the year with a 56/13 career TD-INT ratio and 14 rushing TDs. In last week's 36-24 win over Wake Forest, Darell Garretson completed 11-of-16 passes for 121 yards with one TD and one interception. Garretson made seven starts as a true freshman last season, posting a 10/7 TD-INT ratio.

Bad Company - Week 4
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Three weeks into the college football and there are several teams that have shown they are national championship contenders and others that are just trying to stay competitive. A handful of clubs are the “sacrificial lamb” as they are receiving many points and hope to cover to help out pointspread backers. This week, we’ll take a look at five teams that are huge underdogs and look to hang around with superior foes.

Troy (+41) at Georgia

The Trojans finished last season at 6-6, so this isn’t a team with a history of losing. However, Troy is 0-3 out of the gate, capped off by an embarrassing 38-35 defeat to Abilene Christian last week as 11-point home favorites. Troy blew a 21-7 lead in that setback to an FCS school, while allowing Abilene nearly 500 yards of offense.

Maybe it was a sign of a bad season for Troy after it was routed in the season opener at UAB, 48-10, as the Blazers won just two games last season. Troy normally schedules SEC schools at least once a year (or SEC schools schedule the Trojans) as last season, Troy failed to cover in blowout losses at Mississippi State (62-7) and Mississippi (51-21). Georgia is coming off last week’s loss at South Carolina, while hosting Tennessee next week, so the Bulldogs will try to be on cruise control this Saturday. UGA is 0-3 ATS in its last three home games against non-conference foes, failing to cover against Buffalo, FAU, and North Texas.

Eastern Michigan (+45) at Michigan State

This is plenty of points of swallow if you back the Spartans, as Michigan State is taking the field for the first time since getting blown out at Oregon two weeks ago. The Spartans allowed 46 points to the Ducks, as MSU hadn’t given up more than 28 points in any game during the 2012 and 2013 seasons. However, backing the Spartans may be a tough proposition this week as they own a 3-11 ATS record since 2012 at Spartan Stadium as a home favorite.

Eastern Michigan squeezed past Morgan State in its opener before getting routed at Florida as 40½-point underdogs, 65-0. The Eagles managed a cover as 20½-point ‘dogs in last week’s 17-3 setback at Old Dominion, while limiting the Monarchs to 187 yards passing. EMU owns a 4-9 ATS record in its past 13 games in the road underdog role since 2012, which includes a 23-7 loss in East Lansing as 31½-point ‘dogs in 2012.

SMU (+33½) vs. Texas A&M

The Mustangs have turned in a pair of ugly efforts in losses to Baylor and North Texas in the first two games of the season. Head coach June Jones resigned days after the 43-6 drubbing at North Texas, as the Mustangs have been outscored 88-6 through the 0-2 start. Now, SMU plays its home opener against a Texas A&M squad that has put up a whopping 163 points in three victories over South Carolina, Lamar, and Rice.

For what it’s worth, the Mustangs have covered five of their past seven games as a home underdog since 2012. However, SMU has lost three straight meetings to Texas A&M in blowout fashion (46-14 in 2011, 48-3 in 2012, and 42-13 in 2013), as the Aggies easily cashed each time. The Aggies failed to cover in three opportunities as a road favorite last season, while going 0-3 ATS under Kevin Sumlin on the road off a home victory.

Georgia State (+34½) at Washington

It was a long first season for Georgia State in 2013, moving from the FCS level to the FBS. The Panthers compiled an 0-12 record last season, but found a way to cover in seven of nine lined games. This season, the Panthers were actually listed as favorites in its first two contests against Abilene Christian and New Mexico State, but failed to cash. Georgia State staved off Abilene in the opener, 38-37, while losing a three-point decision to New Mexico State. However, the Panthers grabbed a pointspread win in a 48-38 home loss to Air Force as 12-point ‘dogs.

Now, Georgia State hits the road for the first time to take on a Washington club that finally covered after ATS losses to Hawaii and Eastern Washington. The Huskies crushed Illinois last Saturday, 44-19 as 13-point favorites, while jumping out to a 35-5 lead in the second quarter. Washington may be in a look-ahead spot here, hosting Stanford next week in the Pac-12 opener. In 2013, the Huskies posted a 1-4 ATS record following an ATS win, so keep an eye on Washington winning and potentially not covering.

Miami-Ohio (+28) at Cincinnati

The Redhawks were part of this feature last week as they managed to hang with Michigan at the Big House as 31-point underdogs. The Wolverines eventually cruised to victory, but Miami covered in a 34-10 defeat after trailing 17-10 midway through the third quarter. Miami has lost 15 straight games since the start of 2013, but they have cashed twice as heavy ‘dogs this season, including the opener at Marshall.

Does Miami keep it up this week with a battle against cross-state rival Cincinnati? The Bearcats blanked the Redhawks last season, 14-0, as Miami easily covered as 24 ½-point underdogs. Cincinnati jumped out to a 34-0 second quarter lead in its opener last Friday against Toledo, but the Rockets rallied back to cut the deficit to seven in the fourth. The Bearcats opened things up late and covered as 9½-point favorites, 58-34, as UC hopes to avoid a look-ahead with a trip to Columbus next week to face Ohio State.

Essential Week 4 College Football Betting Tidbits
By Covers.com

(24) Clemson Tigers at (1) Florida State Seminoles (-14.5, 60)

Clemson hasn't forgotten about its embarrassing loss to the 'Noles last season. "We've tried to remind these guys that we did get embarrassed out here, make no mistake about it," Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris said. "Yes, we've definitely talked about it."

According to a tweet from @JeffGrantSports, the Florida State Seminoles have won their last five games when College GameDay visits campus. They've won by an average margin of 17 points. They'll half do it with only one half from Heisman winner Jameis Winston, who received a first-half suspension.

Florida Gators at (2) Alabama Crimson Tide (-14, 51)

According to Yahoo! Sports, Gators coach Will Muschamp is on the hot seat in Gainesville after scraping out a victory against Kentucky last week. "They're all important. They all count for one, so we understand the importance of the game. It's an SEC game," Muschamp said.

Alabama could get a starter returning on each side of the ball Saturday. Wide receiver DeAndrew White and cornerback Jarrick Williams could return according to head coach Nick Saban.

(3) Oregon Ducks at Washington State Cougars (+23, 75)

Ducks QB Marcus Mariota graces this week's cover of Sports Illustrated. The last time he appeared on the cover (Nov. 4, 2013), the Ducks suffered their first loss of the season to Stanford as 10-point faves.

The Washington State Cougars lead the Nation in passing yards per game with 517. Senior Connor Halliday is tops in the country 1,465 yards passing and 12 touchdown passes (tied with two others).

(4) Oklahoma Sooners at West Virginia Mountaineers (+7.5, 64.5)

This will be the first game that Oklahoma's leading rusher Keith Ford will miss since he was ruled out 2-3 weeks earlier this week.

West Virginia has suspended their top cornerback, Daryl Worley, earlier in the week. Worley had 17 tackles and intercepted two passes after the first three games of the season.

(7) Texas A&M Aggies at Southern Methodist Mustangs (+33.5, 58.5)

Kenny Hill has thrown for 1,094 yards and 11 TDs in his first three games, that's 376 yards and three TDs more than Jameis Winston totaled in his first three games last year. Hill is currently 7/1 at Sportsbook.ag to win the Heisman Trophy.

Redshirt-freshman QB Kolney Cassel makes his first career start for the Mustangs after Neal Burcham went down versus North Texas.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at (8) LSU Tigers (-9, 50)

Dan Mullen certainly does not forget last year's game against LSU. "Last year late in the third quarter we were driving and missed a field goal, and then they responded with a touchdown," the Bulldogs coach said to media Monday. "They scored 14 points in a minute and a half, and things never go well for you when that happens."

Nobody can question the toughness of WR Travin Dural. Even though the receiver was in a car accident Sunday morning, requiring a reported 15 stitches, and missing three practices, he will be available for LSU Saturday. Dural has 370 yards and four touchdowns for the Tigers.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at (11) Michigan State Spartans (-45, 52)

At the very least, first year Eagles coach Chris Creighton has been keeping on the sunny side. ""I really felt as though (the defense) kept us in the game and gave us a chance to win," the coach told the media after surrendering a season-low 367 total yards against the Monarchs.

Saturday could be a big day for Spartans QB Connor Cook. Through two games this season he is 41-of-60 for 628 yards with five touchdowns.

Troy Trojans at (14) Georgia Bulldogs (-41, 64.5)

Even though Troy has gotten off to an 0-3 (SU) start for the first time since 1982, it does not seem like there will be shakeups. "Larry [Blakeney] didn't all of a sudden forget how to coach overnight," Troy AD John Hartwell told the media. Hartwell also said that he has "full confidence" in Blakeney.

The Bulldogs red-zone offense has been a big focus in practice this week. "When we get down there, we’re just kind of stalling out," QB Hutson Mason said this week. "A lot of that is me. I’ve got to read coverage better." Against the Gamecocks, Georgia made six trips to the red zone and managed to score six points.

(16) South Carolina Gamecocks at Vanderbilt Commodores (+21.5, 53.5)

Steve Spurrier is not letting his guys get caught in the possible trap game against Vandy. "They'll play us tough. At times we look like we know what we're doing, at other times we look pretty average. I'm hoping we can really put together our best game of the year against Vanderbilt."

Quarterback play has been the bane of Vanderbilt's season so far. Through three games, the revolving door at QB has completed 46.3 percent of their passes with five interceptions.

Bowling Green Falcons at (17) Wisconsin Badgers (-27, 63.5)

"The definitely like to go fast," is how Wisconsin coach Derek Landisch described Bowling Green. The Falcons ran 113 offensive plays for 571 yards against Indiana last week. That includes 73 pass attempts by James Knapke.

The bye week came at a good time for the Badgers after an up-and-down performance for the team. "But there's probably 15 to 18 missed tackles in the last game," coach Gary Anderson said to the media. "I'm not going to say we can't have any missed tackles, but we have to tackle well, and if we can do that, this defense can move forward."

Indiana Hoosiers at (19) Missouri Tigers (-13, 71)

If the Hoosiers have one area they need to improve, it's special teams. Indiana ranks last in the country in both field goals (0-2) and punting (29.20 average).

Mizzou has finally given up on a piece of their future offense. Coach Gary Pinkel opened his press conference Monday by announcing that redshirt sophomore WR Levi Copelin has been dismissed from the program.

Miami Hurricanes at (22) Nebraska Cornhuskers (-7.5, 57)

The Miami Hurricanes will need to start looking for a QB of the future. Only a day after being arrested for DUI and possession of a fake or stolen driver's license, Kevin Olsen dropped out of school.

Cornhuskers defensive cooridinator John Papuchis has his concerns about the U. "They have great speed at wideout, so I am concerned with balls being thrown over our head, but our guys are aware of it and we have to tackle well to limit explosive plays.”

Virginia Cavaliers at (23) BYU Cougars (-14.5, 47.5)

The Cavaliers don't open so well on the road. Since 2001, Virginia is 3-10 straight up in its first road game of the season.

There are a few programs that have a 100 percent scoring rate in the red zone. The Cougars have foiled just one opportunity but are still a good bet to score in the red.The Cougars have scored 13 times (10 touchdowns) in 14 trips inside the red zone so far this season.

(25) North Carolina Tar Heels at East Carolina Pirates (-3, 67)

UNC will be missing a key piece of their offensive line when they take on the Pirates. RG Landon Turner will miss the game with an undisclosed injury. Last year when the Tar Heels played ECU, the Pirates racked up over 600 yards of offense.

East Carolina has no use for looking in the past. "Each team's personality is different. We don't have to bring it up because of what we keep preaching," head coach Ruffin McNeill told the media Monday. "I'm anxious to dive into the film a little more because they got onto a great streak at the end of last year."

Game of the Day: Clemson at Florida State
By Covers.com

Clemson Tigers at Florida State Seminoles (-14.5, 60)

Already facing one of the biggest potential hurdles in its national title defense, Florida State will have to take on visiting Clemson with its Heisman Trophy quarterback on the bench for the first half. The top-ranked Seminoles will play the first half without Jameis Winston, who was benched for disciplinary reasons after shouting a vulgar phrase on campus Tuesday. Winston's absence opens the door for the No. 24 Tigers to claim their first victory over a top-ranked team.

The Seminoles are riding an 18-game winning streak and have won 15 straight against ACC foes, but Winston's latest off-field transgression has put them in a tough spot against a capable conference opponent. "I did something, so I've got to accept my consequences," Winston said in a press conference Wednesday. "We're going to think about moving forward and winning the game." Sophomore Sean Maguire is expected to make his first career start in place of Winston, who rolled up 444 passing yards in last year's 51-14 win at Clemson.

LINE HISTORY: At the Westgate LV Superbook, the Noles opened as 20-point faves, but dropped to -16.5. The total opened at 61.5 but is now 60.5

INJURY REPORT: Clemson - S Travis Blanks (Questionable, knee). Florida State - LB Ukeme Eligwe (Probably, foot).

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Clemson scored 73 points in a win over South Carolina State, it's highest points total in 33 years. The Seminoles run defense looked a little suspect allowing 250 rushing yards to Citadel in Week 2." Covers Expert Jesse Schule.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "This line has obviously been affected by the Winston suspension. We dropped the spread three points upon the news and it's come down another 2.5 points since. More than 70 percent of our bets have come on the Tigers, but if it falls to -14 that should balance out somewhat. The total has dipped five points from our opener as 67 percent of the action is on the Under." John Lester, Bookmaker.eu.

ABOUT CLEMSON (1-1 SU, 0-0 ACC, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U): The Tigers were shut out in the second half of a season-opening 45-21 loss to Georgia, but they took out their offensive frustrations on South Carolina State two weeks ago, racking up 735 total yards in a 73-7 victory. Quarterback Cole Stoudt has passed for 446 yards and just one touchdown while no running back has more than 82 yards for the Tigers, who need some playmakers to emerge to upset the Seminoles. Clemson will look for star defensive end Vic Beasley to harass Maguire and Winston and add to his 23 career sacks, the most among active FBS players.

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (2-0 SU, 0-0 ACC, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 O/U): The Seminoles have scored 30 or more points in 17 consecutive games, but that could be put to the test without their star quarterback for a half. Winston's absence also has an impact on receiver Rashad Greene, whose 283 receiving yards are the most in school history through two games. Luckily for the Seminoles, they can lean on a stout defense that has been especially strong against the pass, allowing 137.5 yards per game through the air.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Florida State.
* Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Seminoles are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
* Home team is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

COVERS CONSENSUS: According to Covers Consensus, 62 percent of bettors are backing the visiting Tigers.

Total Notes - Week 4
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 3 Recap

There was a good mix of total winners in Week 3 and for those keeping records, the ‘over’ produced a 28-23 mark in Week 3 in the 51 matchups between FBS schools. After this weekend most teams will have completed at least a third of the regular season, which gives bettors a good sample to analyze. Heading into Week 4, total players can start to see glaring tendencies.

Based on our numbers, these teams have all seen the OVER go 3-0 in their first three games - Fresno State, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Tulsa, Middle Tennessee State, Tulane, Toledo, Buffalo, Louisiana Tech, Western Kentucky and Georgia Tech.

Schools that have watched the UNDER go 3-0 are Nevada, Tennessee, Houston, Navy, Ball State and Wyoming.

Should bettors ride these outcomes, perhaps go the other way? We asked that question to VegasInsider.com totals expert James Manos and he gave us a quick snapshot of his handicapping approach.

He explained, “When handicapping totals and looking to make OVER bets, I prefer to look at two major categories, my offensive efficiency ratings and the matchups. I prefer to find teams with efficient offensive units that have quality matchups rather than look for a mediocre offense to take advantage of an inefficient or poor defense but, as always, each game must be evaluated on its own merits with all factors considered. When deciding on UNDER plays I prefer to look at my defensive efficiency ratings and pace statistics (plays per game, points per play, % of rushing plays).”

For those individuals who have time and a passion for understanding the totals market more, I would recommend visiting a site like www.teamrankings.com. They have stats upon stats that can only help you with your selections.

Game of the Week - Clemson at Florida State

The ACC takes center stage on Saturday night as the Tigers and Seminoles knock heads again. Due to the Jameis Winston suspension for Florida State, I asked Manos for his thoughts on the matchup and how he would look to bet the game and halves.

“Normally, I would avoid a situation like this but this setup seems too juicy to ignore and these are two teams that I know something about. I made the original line for this game FSU -17 but was unwilling to back Clemson unless I could get +21 or better. The line nearly got there (peaking at a widely available +20.5) but has now returned to this number with the suspension of QB Winston for the 1st half.

Probably NO player in the country has meant more to his team over the last 1-plus seasons than Winston and his loss for the 1st half of this game could be very detrimental. But essentially, considering the opener, the books are only crediting Winston's absence with two points of value (or a full game +4.5).

I think that's an underestimation and places value on the Tigers at that number but it's been scooped up by the professional all over. As of Friday, Clemson is now a 15-point underdog or less at books.

Both teams had byes prior to this meeting but now the ‘Noles only have two full practices to get a redshirt freshman QB with 21 career pass attempts ready to play against a Top 20 defense. Florida State has struggled to find playmakers at the WR position this season and in the 1st half of this game, I expect a heavy dose of RB Williams.

Clemson's defense struggled vs Georgia's solid ground game but most of that came in the 4th quarter when the Tigers were exhausted from an inept offense leaving them on the field too long. Clemson OC Morris has been known to take more chances in situations like this and with two weeks to prepare expect some packages for electric freshman QB Watson, who has seen playing time in both games so far this year and looked good.

Two good defenses should control the first half of this game and when Winston returns in the 2nd half he'll likely have just 7 possessions and 37 plays or so to make a difference. My numbers show FSU with an expectation of .631 points per play with Winston in the game vs. an average defense but Clemson is no average defense. Adjusted for Clemson's defensive efficiency and backup QB Maquire playing the entire first half, I have the ‘Noles scoring 34-36 points in this game. With an extra week to prepare and an excellent OC in Morris I expect the Clemson offense to be better than it was vs Georgia especially after the confidence building win over South Carolina State. I like the Tigers chances to score more than 20 points in this contest and if they can somehow receive the 2nd half kickoff and generate a drive, they will cut into Winston's potential number of plays even more. With that being said, I would grab the points!

The movement downward is correct and the adjustment is accurate. I think UNDER for the game offers more value than the UNDER for the 1st half as we may see some trick plays from both sides in the first stanza and as I mentioned above, if Clemson receives the 2nd half kickoff they could limit Winston's participation even more.”

Line Moves

In last week’s Total Notes piece, Manos touched on how he analyzes line movements in the totals market and divided the shifts into four categories. He also provided examples of each category.

1) Correct sharp movement - Indiana/Bowling Green OVER

If you check the moves on this matchup, you’ll see an opener of 64 and the line closed as high as 76. That’s a 12-point shift, which is ridiculous. After a slow start, Bowling Green beat Indiana 45-42 in a shootout as all tickets cashed.

2) Incorrect sharp movement - Nevada/Arizona OVER

This number opened 60 and closed as high as 66½. Some bettors might’ve scored a middle with Arizona winning 35-28.

3) Public movement - Georgia/South Carolina OVER

Big television games garner attention and despite a delayed start to weather, South Carolina defeated Georgia 38-35. This line jumped up during the week but the weather drove the number back in the neighborhood of the opener (58.5).

4) Market manipulation - Western Kentucky/Middle Tennessee UNDER

This number opened at 67 and received plenty of attention all week at the betting counter. The number closed at 64 and even though the final score was 50-47, make a note that 29 points came in overtime.

Manos has listed four examples for Week 4 that fit into his line movement categories.

1) Correct sharp movement - San Diego State/Oregon State OVER
2) Incorrect sharp movement - Tulane/Duke OVER
3) Public movement - North Carolina/East Carolina OVER
4) Market manipulation - Middle Tennessee State/Memphis UNDER

Some VI users have asked me why I use CRIS aka Bookmaker as source to track moves. Put simply, outside of CG Technology (formerly Cantor Gaming) in Las Vegas, CRIS has a very strong reputation as an offshore outfit and they post early numbers on totals.

Saturday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag

Florida Gators (2-0) at Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Alabama -14.5 & 50.5

No. 3 Alabama looks to stay undefeated when it hosts Florida in a classic SEC matchup on Saturday afternoon.

Florida is certainly not as dominant as it once was, but has kicked off the 2014 season with two consecutive SU wins (1-1 ATS) by gaining at least 530 yards of total offense in both victories. Their opener was a cakewalk, as they routed Eastern Michigan 65-0 as 41-point favorites at home, but did not fare so well in their second contest against Kentucky. It took three overtimes to defeat the 18-point underdog Wildcats, as the Gators eventually held off their pesky opponents by a score of 36-30 at home. They gained 532 yards of offense in the victory, including running for 237 yards, and forced three turnovers.

Alabama has opened the year with three consecutive SU wins, but has yet to cover a spread, going 0-2-1 ATS while being a favorite of at least 22 points in all three games. Over the past two contests against Florida Atlantic and Southern Miss, the Crimson Tide have given up a combined 12 points and 408 total yards. In their most recent game, a 52-12 win over the 45.5-point underdog Golden Eagles, Alabama averaged 7.5 yards per play and smoked their opponent for 333 yards on the ground.

These programs have not met since 2011, but the Crimson Tide hold a three-game winning streak in the matchup (both SU and ATS) while dominating the last time they met up in a 38-10 win as a 4-point favorite on the road. The scores in the past four meetings in Tuscaloosa have all been one-sided too, with the Tide prevailing 34-7, 31-3, 32-13 and 31-6. Bettors should be aware of a few telling trends, including the fact that Florida is 11-2 ATS (85%) after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better since 1992, while ‘Bama is 12-3 ATS (80%) over the same timeframe in home games after gaining at least 7.25 yards per play in its previous contest.

The only injury to keep an eye on this week is that of WR DeAndrew White (shoulder) who is listed as questionable for Alabama.

Florida has put up elite offensive numbers through its first two contests, tallying 345.5 YPG in the air (12th in FBS) and 248 YPG on the ground (25th in nation) while scoring 50.5 PPG. QB Jake Driskel (543 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT) has looked solid after suffering a broken leg last year, as he has already had more than 40 attempts in each game (6.2 YPA) while going 25-for-43 (58%) with 293 yards and 3 TD (1 INT) against Kentucky last weekend. The rushing attack has been very efficient behind HB Matt Jones (221 yards, 2 TD) who tallied 156 yards (5.4 YPC) and a touchdown against Kentucky. HB Kelvin Taylor (123 yards, 2 TD) has provided a nice change of pace and scored twice in the team’s season opener. WR Demarcus Robinson has been dominant as the team’s No. 1 target in the passing game with 339 yards (16.1 avg) and 3 TD. The sophomore was untouchable against the Wildcats, as he racked up 216 yards and pulled in two scores among his 14 receptions (14.4 avg).

DL Dante Fowler Jr. (9 tackles, 1 sack) is one of the elite linemen in the nation, and hopes he can help the Gators and their defense, which has allowed 287.5 YPG (15th in FBS), slow down a tough Alabama offense.

Alabama once again brings to the table a lethal combination of passing (298 YPG, 33rd in FBS) and rushing (270.3 YPG, 17th in FBS) that has helped the club drop 42.0 PPG on opponents. QB Blake Sims (646 pass yards, 10.1 YPA, 4 TD, 1 INT) has been great as the starter, while throwing all his touchdowns and no interceptions over the past two victories while adding to the run game with 102 rushing yards (7.3 YPC) and two scores. There will also be no worries if Sims goes down, as backup QB Jake Coker (248 yards, 1 TD) has already proven he can lead under center if he's needed.

The Crimson Tide have incredible depth at the running back position with HB T.J. Yeldon (225 yards, 5.8 YPC, 2 TD) leading the group. He has had less of a workload over the past two games (16 attempts) with them being blowouts, but he showed what he can do over a full contest in the opener, going for 126 yards on 23 attempts (5.5 YPC) and 2 TD against West Virginia. HBs Derrick Henry (209 yards, 1 TD) and Kenyan Drake (97 yards, 4 TD) are behind Yeldon on the depth chart, but each hold tons of talent and are dominant when in the game. WR Amari Cooper has 33 of the team’s 68 catches in 2014 while getting 454 yards (13.8 avg) and two touchdowns. He has had over 130 yards in each of the three victories while twice grabbing double-digit receptions.

The stout defense has allowed a mere 11.7 PPG (10th in nation) while giving up just 267 YPG (10th in FBS). This side of the ball is led by the tandem of LB Trey DePriest (10 tackles) and DB Landon Collins (24 tackles) who both expect to play on Sundays come 2015.

Clemson Tigers (1-1) at Florida State Seminoles (2-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Florida State -14.5 & 60

No. 1 Florida State, the defending BCS National Champion, kicks off its ACC season on Saturday when its hosts No. 22 Clemson, but will do so without Heisman Trophy-winning QB Jameis Winston for the first two quarters.

Winston was suspended for the first half of this game after shouting obscenities in the student union earlier this week, meaning little-used sophomore QB Sean Maguire (26 career passes, 2 TD, 2 INT) will be under center for the first 30 minutes of this ballgame. The Tigers opened the season against a very tough opponent in Georgia, and were dominated by Heisman hopeful, HB Todd Gurley, who gained 293 all-purpose yards as Clemson suffered a 45-21 loss as 9.5-point underdogs. The Tigers took out their frustrations the next week against 34-point underdog South Carolina State as they scored their most points in 33 years with a 73-7 shellacking. They piled up an amazing 735 yards of offense while gaining 11.1 yards per pass and holding their opponent to a putrid 44 yards of offense.

Florida State has not been as dominant over its first two victories as most would have expected, failing to cover the spread in both games. Oklahoma State got to within six points late in the fourth quarter in the Seminoles opening game, but FSU still managed to hold on by a score of 37-31 as an 18.5-point favorite. In its most recent win, Florida State was a 56.5-point favorite against The Citadel, an FCS team, allowing its opponent to rush for 250 yards in the contest while gaining 494 yards of offense themselves and finishing the game with a 37-12 victory.

The Seminoles have totaled 100 points against Clemson over the past two seasons, winning each of the games SU and going 1-1 ATS. Last year this was barely a game as Florida State defeated its conference foes 51-14 and outgained the Tigers 444-203 through the air while forcing four turnovers. But since 2007, Clemson is a solid 5-2 ATS (3-4 SU) in this matchup. Bettors should know that the Tigers are 40-22 ATS (65%) after two consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers since 1992, while the Seminoles have gone 14-4 ATS (78%) as a home favorite of 17.5 to 21 points over the same timeframe.

On the injury front, Clemson has no significant players expected to miss this game, while Florida State may have some key defenders out as DB P.J Williams (hamstring) and DL Eddie Goldman (leg) are both questionable.

Clemson’s offensive numbers are a little fudged as they opened the year against a tough defensive team in Georgia and then faced a poor FCS team the following week. Nonetheless, the club has put up 47.0 PPG in the two contests and has thrown for 335 YPG (16th in nation). QB Cole Stoudt (446 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) threw for 302 yards and a touchdown against South Carolina State before letting younger players get an opportunity to participate in the blowout. Stoudt has hit on 63.3% of his passes so far while gaining 7.4 YPA. There is no clear-cut starter in the backfield for this team, as seven players have already had at least nine rushing attempts on the year. HB D.J. Howard (71 yards, 2 TD) leads the team with 16 of his own attempts while freshman HB Wayne Gallman has gained 82 yards on 11 attempts (7.5 YPC) and HB C.J. Davidson (47 yards) has a touchdown in each of the first two contests. Replacing Sammy Watkins in the passing game will be impossible, but WR Mike Williams (7 rec, 171 yards) hopes he can alleviate some of the pain, and will be helped out by the electric WR Artavis Scott who has 205 yards and two touchdowns on a mere eight catches (25.6 avg).

DE Vic Beasley (6 tackles, 2 sacks) is following up his 13-sack season last year with a sack in each of the first two games, as he leads a defense that has allowed a meager 251.5 YPG (6th in FBS) to their opponents in 2014. The front four looks to wreak havoc on the inexperienced quarterback it will face in the first half.

The Seminoles have not looked as explosive as they did last year when they had the second-best scoring offense in the nation, putting up only 37.0 PPG over their first two wins while gaining 327 YPG in the air (20th in nation). Last season’s best player, QB Jameis Winston (626 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT) has not looked like a Heisman winner so far, especially after throwing two picks in the season opener, a close battle against Oklahoma State. While FSU figures to establish the run when QB Sean Maguire is under center, remember that Winston torched the Tigers in their win last season, throwing for 444 yards and 3 TD and 1 INT while also adding a score on the ground. HB Karlos Williams (132 yards, 1 TD) has been the workhorse in the backfield, as change-of-pace RBs Mario Pender and Dalvin Cook have 136 yards on 23 attempts (5.9 YPC) with two touchdowns combined. WR Rashad Greene (15 rec, 283 yards, 1 TD) and TE Nick O’Leary (8 rec, 79 yards, 1 TD) make a tough receiving combo who are padding their draft status this year and plan on playing Sundays next year.

The Florida State defense has allowed 21.5 PPG and 343 YPG of offense through their first two contests while being led by playmakers DL Mario Edwards Jr. (4 tackles, 1 sack) and LB Terrance Smith (17 tackles).

Oklahoma Sooners (3-0) at West Virginia Mountaineers (2-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Oklahoma 8 & 65.5

No. 4 Oklahoma looks to get conference play started out on the right foot as it travels to Morgantown to take on a dangerous West Virginia team.

These two schools have played some very interesting games in the past few seasons, with the Sooners wining last year’s meeting, 16-7. Turnovers played a huge role in that game, as both teams turned the ball over four times each. That was a big reason why the outcome was low-scoring despite the two teams combining for 822 yards. The Sooners have failed to cover the spread in the past three games in this series, including the 2012 meeting in Morgantown when the Sooners won 50-49 as double-digit favorites.

West Virginia is coming off a big win against Maryland, winning 40-37 on a last-second field goal. QB Clint Trickett threw for 511 yards in the victory, with 216 of them going to WR Kevin White. For the Mountaineers to have a big season, they must play better at home in conference play. After pulling off a shocking upset against Oklahoma State last season, the Mountaineers lost their final three home games. The Sooners got a strong non-conference win by crushing Tennessee 34-10 last weekend in Norman. The defense had a big performance with three forced turnovers including a 100-yard interception return for a touchdown.

Oklahoma was very good on the road last year in Big 12 play, going 3-1 SU with its only loss being to Baylor. In the three wins against Kansas, Kansas State and Oklahoma State, the Sooners won by an average 11.3 points. Both teams have negative betting trends, as road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season after closing out the previous year with 3+ straight wins are 8-31 ATS (21%) in the past 10 seasons, but home underdogs with a good offense (400+ total YPG), after outgaining an opponent by 225+ total yards in their previous game, are 5-26 ATS (16%) in the past five seasons.

The Sooners will be thin on the defensive line with DT Charles Walker (undisclosed) out, DE Matt Dimon (elbow) doubtful and DL Quincy Russell (personal) questionable for Saturday's game. Although DBs Daryl Worley (suspended indefinitely) and Brandon Napoleon (knee) are both out for WVU, four other injured players have been upgraded to probable: RB Rushel Shell (hand), LB Wes Tonkery (leg), CB Ishmael Banks (academics) and DB Terrell Chestnut (thigh).

The Oklahoma offense has been great in the early part of the season, as the unit ranks 15th in scoring (44.7 PPG), 34th in passing (293.3 pass YPG) and 42nd in rushing (196.7 rush YPG). However, the unit will be missing a key player in RB Keith Ford (194 rush yards, 5.7 YPC, 5 TD) due to a foot injury. While Ford will be missed, the cupboard is not bare in the backfield for the Sooners. RBs Samaje Perine (177 rush yards, 5.5 YPC, 1 TD) and Alex Ross (132 rush yards, 6.3 YPC, 3 TD) are both more than capable of getting the job done on the ground.

QB Trevor Knight (860 pass yards, 8.5 YPA, 4 TD, 2 INT) has continued to develop as a passer, and has helped out the offense immensely. Defenses are unable to load up in the box, and if they try to, Knight has shown that he has the ability to hurt them on the outside. WR Sterling Shepard (17 catches, 335 yards, 2 TD) is one of the most explosive players in all of the country, able to take a screen pass and turn it into a 70-yard touchdown. The Sooners have playmakers all over the field on offense, but appear to be a title contender because of an elite defense. Senior LB Geneo Grissom (12 tackles, 1 INT, 1 TD) is a star in the making on a unit that allows only 11.0 points per game (8th in nation). In the secondary, there are playmakers all over the field.

Last week, the Volunteers were driving to cut the deficit to two possessions in the fourth quarter, when DB Julian Wilson took an interception back 100 yards for a touchdown to help the Sooners seal the victory. Sophomore CB Zack Sanchez has an interception in each of the team’s three games.

The Mountaineers will throw the ball a lot, so this secondary is going to be tested. West Virginia made headlines in Week 1 by hanging with 22-point favorite Alabama in a 33-23 loss, which started a current 3-0 ATS run. The Mountaineers rank fifth in the country in passing (410.3 YPG), while ranking 39th in scoring (39.0 PPG). QB Clint Trickett (1,224 pass yards, 9.1 YPA, 7 TD, 1 INT) has improved significantly, evidenced by his 75.4% completion rate. Senior WR Kevin White (32 catches, 460 yards, 2 TD) has shown to be one of the elite receivers in all of the country. At 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds, he is a great combination of size and speed. Trickett has shown early in the year that he is confident throwing the ball up and letting White go get it.

Workhorse RB Rushel Shell (51 carries, 207 yards, 4.1 YPC, 2 TD) will be a key in this game. The Mountaineers are going to have to be able to run the ball, as the Sooners are going to be preparing for the passing game. If Shell isn't bothered by his hand injury and can get going early, that will open some one-on-one opportunities on the outside. However, if the Mountaineers are going to pull off the upset, they must play much better defense. The unit ranks 55th in the nation in scoring defense (23.3 PPG allowed), and will be tested by the Sooners offense.

Junior S Karl Joseph (24 tackles, 12 solos) is one of the best safeties in the country. In the season opener against Alabama, he had 18 tackles (7 solo), and is the type of guy that shines in the biggest moments. He will be asked upon to help against the run as well, so look for Joseph to line up all over the field on Saturday.

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Bowling Green coming off prolific offensive game

Maybe they are not the media darlings of the MAC, but Bowling Green put on an offensive performance in their last game.

The Falcons ran 113 offensive plays for 571 yards against Indiana in Week 3. That includes a large day from QB James Knapke who went 46-for-73 with 395 yards and three touchdowns.

Bowling Green (+27) travels to Wisconsin to take on the Badgers Saturday.

Badgers still not playing up to potential

Wisconsin has been on a roller coaster this season between a four-point loss to LSU and a 37-3 drubbing of Western Illinois. However, the team has yet to really focus on defense.

"There's probably 15 to 18 missed tackles in the last game," coach Gary Anderson said to the media. "I'm not going to say we can't have any missed tackles, but we have to tackle well, and if we can do that, this defense can move forward."

The Badgers will get their chance to tackle as 27-point home favorites against Bowling Green Saturday.

Poor QB play has been downfall for Vanderbilt

Though Vanderbilt has several areas they need to work on, the quarterback position has been the worst for the team. Three different passers have amassed a 46.3 completion percentage with 5-to-1 INT-to-TD ratio.

The Commordores are currently 21.5-point home dogs against South Carolina Saturday.

Georgia's practice focused on red zone offense

The Georgia Bulldogs may have just barely lost to South Carolina last week, but their red zone offense did nothing to keep them in the game. In six trips to the red zone, the Bulldogs managed a total of six points against the Gamecocks.

"When we get down there, we’re just kind of stalling out," QB Hutson Mason said this week. "A lot of that is me. I’ve got to read coverage better."

Georgia hosts Troy this week as 41-point faves.

Despite car accident, Dural will be avaliable

It will be less than one week after a nasty car accident, but WR Travin Dural will be available for LSU Saturday.

Early this past Sunday, Dural was in a car accident that reportedly caused the sophomore to receive 15 stitches and miss three of the teams practices this week.

Dural has 370 yards and four touchdowns for the Tigers this season.

Freshman to start for SMU versus Aggies

With starting QB Neal Burcham out for the Mustangs, SMU will be turning to redshirt-freshaman Kolney Cassel against Texas A&M.

Cassel was a three-star rated recruit coming out of high school where he posted a 58.5 completion percentage for 2697 yards with 27 touchdowns and six interceptions in his senior season.

Cassel has tallied 154 yards and one touchdown in spot duty this season.

Alabama could see two starters return to lineup

It seems that the dominant Alabama Crimson Tide could be getting even stronger this week. Both WR DeAndrew White and CB Jarrick Williams could be returning to the lineup according to Nick Saban.

Both players started in the season opener against WVU, with White tallying six receptions and 73 yards.

The Crimson Tide are currently 14-point home faves against Florida Saturday.

Clemson keeps loss to Seminoles in mind

Less than a year ago, Clemson got embarrassed by Florida State 51-14. That is not a memory easily forgotten in the Tigers locker room.

"We've tried to remind these guys that we did get embarrassed out here, make no mistake about it," Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris said. "Yes, we've definitely talked about it."

Clemson gets a break as Jameis Winston will be suspended for the game Saturday. Winston torched the Tigers for 444 yards and three touchdowns in last seasons beat-down.

Sooners to be without leading rusher

The Oklahoma Sooners will be without leading rusher Keith Ford this week. It was announced earlier this week that the RB would be out 2-3 weeks.

The No.4 ranked team in the nation has used a committee approach to their backfield with three back over 100 yards rushing, but Ford leads the teams in touchdowns with five.

The Sooners travel to West Virginia as 7.5 faves.

Mullen does not forget how close Bulldogs were

Even though the last meeting between Mississippi State and LSU looked like a beatdown on paper, a 59-26 Tigers victory, it was a surprisingly close game. Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen does not forget how close that game was.

"Last year late in the third quarter we were driving and missed a field goal, and then they responded with a touchdown," the Bulldogs coach said to media Monday. "They scored 14 points in a minute and a half, and things never go well for you when that happens."

Mississippi State are 9-point road dogs Saturday.

Troy confident despite worst start in 32 years

A 0-3 record straight-up (1-2 against the spread) does not have Troy panicking. Despite the teams worst start since 1982, there does not appear to be shakeups on the horizon.

"Larry [Blakeney] didn't all of a sudden forget how to coach overnight," Troy athletic director John Hartwell told the media. Hartwell went on to say that he has "full confidence" in Blakeney.

The Trojans have an uphill battle as 41-point road dogs versus Georgia Saturday.

Spurrier: "We look pretty average"

Despite South Carolina topping Georgia last week, Steve Spurrier is not letting his team rest on their laurels.

"[Vanderbilt will] play us tough. At times we look like we know what we're doing, at other times we look pretty average," Spurrier said this week. " I'm hoping we can really put together our best game of the year against Vanderbilt."

The Gamecocks are currently 21.5-point road faves.

Iowa-Pitt to be playing against high winds

The Iowa Hawkeyes will travel to Heinz Field to play Pitt Saturday, but the winds may be the biggest enemy of all. Winds are expected to be constantly blowing above 12 miles per hour and as high as 15 mph.

Iowa and Pitt's total is currently set at 47.

Cornhuskers kicker crashes motorcycle, breaks collarbone

Nebraska kicker Mauro Bondi broke his collarbone Thursday night when he crashed his motorcycle in Lincoln.

Bondi failed to navigate a turn in the northwest part of the city around 6:30 p.m., according to the Journal Star. Bondi hit a curb and ran off the road. A passer-by assisted him to his apartment where a roommate took him to a hospital.

Police cited the 21-year-old with negligent driving and riding without a motorcycle license. Police said alcohol was not a factor in the crash. Bondi was wearing a helmet.

His status for Saturday's game is uncertain. The Cornhuskers host the Miami Hurricanes

Spartan Stadium to be wet and windy

The in-state rivalry game between Eastern Michigan and Michigan State is expected to be a messy one. The forecast calls for a 60 percent chance of thundershowers with winds gusting upwards of 13 miles per hour.

The total for the Eagles and Spartans is currently 52.5.

Over trending at Sanford Stadium

One stadium that has enjoyed some high offensive output is Sanford Stadium. In Georgia's last 10 games at home, the over has paid out eight times.

During that span, the Bulldogs have averaged 43 points per game, with a combined average of 64 ppg.

Georgia hosts Troy with a total of 64 Saturday.