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College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, September 21

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CFB Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Tennessee at Florida

The Florida Gators will host the Tennessee Volunteers in a conference opener for both teams. Upset 21-16 as 3-point road underdog at Miami on the September 7th the Gators have had a week to regain focus and should feel pretty good about their chances against a squad they knocked off 37-20 last season marking an eight straight victory in the series (4-2-2 ATS). It’s easy to discount Volunteers after suffering a 45 point thrashing against Quack-Attack last week. But, Florida hasn't got the same explose offense as Ducks and laying 17.0 points is a little risky when you consider the negative betting trends Florida must overcome. The Gators are on a 1-6 ATS slide following a straight-up loss, 0-5 ATS skid in the capacity of host, 3-6-1 ATS last seven vs a visiting SEC team and 1-7 ATS laying double digits.

North Carolina at Georgia Tech

The Yellow Jackets spanking Elon 70-0 in the opener followed by a 38-14 thumping of Duke look to make it 3-0 when they host Tar Heels on Saturday. Yellow Jackets owning this series winning four straight (4-0 ATS) and 13-of-15 encounters (9-6 ATS) have been pegged 6.5 point favorite. Yellow Jackets have thrived at the betting window vs the conference cashing six straight tickets, 8-of-10 including four straight laying less than ten points. It's also well to note, Georgia Tech has a sparkling 9-1 ATS record in the first month of the season over the last three years. When it comes to Tar Heels, they've struggled against-the-oddsmaker in conference road games posting a 2-6-1 ATS mark the past nine and have a cash draining 1-4-1 ATS mark last six away vs the ACC in September.

Auburn at LSU

LSU Tigers opened its season with a 37-27 win at TCU, then stomped UAB 56-17 and most recently knocked off Kent 45-13. That has LSU Tigers 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS through three games with total bettors cashing the 'Over' in each contest. Lead by QB Mettenberger (797 yds, 9 TD) the LSU Tigers are averaging 46.0 PPG on 488 total yards split between 269.3 PY, 218.7 RY. The Tigers of Auburn opened their campaign with a 31-24 win over Washington St. followed by a 38-9 shellacking of Arizona St. then had a 24-20 squeaker over Miss St. giving the team a 3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS mark with three 'Under'. QB Marshall (585 yds, 4 TD, 2 Int) guides an offense which is averaging 31.0 PPG on 201.7 PY, 238.7 RY. Last year, LSU went into Auburn and won a defensive battle 12-10 losing the cash as 18 point road favorite and are once again laying heavy lumber as they've opened 17 point home favorites. The biggest factor for laying points in this matchup is that Tigers of Auburn haven't exactly been productive in Death Valley losing 6 consecutive (2-4 ATS) including a 45-10 thrashing last visit. When you add in the fact Auburn has lost 10-of-11 (2-9 ATS) vs the conference by an average 23.1 PPG, have not travelled well posting an 0-7 mark (1-6 ATS) recently the play is on LSU.

 
Posted : September 17, 2013 7:47 pm
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College Football Betting Preview: SMU at Texas A&M
By Andrew Lange
Sportsmemo.com

SMU at Texas A&M
Saturday, 4 pm PT – ESPNU
CRIS Opener: Texas A&M -26.5 O/U 82
CRIS Current: Texas A&M -28.5 O/U 79
Rob Veno’s Power Rating: Texas A&M -30.5
Andrew Lange’s Recommendation: Texas A&M 1st half

SMU can have all the bye weeks and time to prepare in the world and it still won't save them from getting beat up by Texas A&M. No question the Aggies are in a bad spot and as we saw last week with Michigan following the Notre Dame game, no one is immune to a letdown. But to me, there is a class and coaching difference that outweighs the situational.

In Week 1, which should have been SMU's Super Bowl as they were fortunate enough to host an in-state foe from a BCS conference, the Mustangs laid a big egg in a 41-23 loss to Texas Tech. Statistically the Mustangs were right there but the end result was nothing more than the Red Raiders wanting it more. Quarterback Garrett Gilbert slept walk through much of the game as did coaches June Jones and Hal Mumme – two "legends" that the game as seemingly passed by.

Then it was on to Week 2 with a date against FCS power Montana State. Of course SMU comes out flat and on its first three possessions punts twice and fumbles. In the end, the Mustangs fell behind by 11 in the second half and needed a touchdown with 30 seconds to go to sneak away with the 31-30 win.

This week is a significant step up in class against a high powered offense – something SMU has struggled mightily with of late. In 2011 and 2012, SMU played Baylor once and Texas A&M twice and in each instance it was an absolute beat down. Combine the three games and SMU was outscored 153-41.

As I mentioned, this is a brutal spot for A&M after playing Alabama and a conference road game on deck. But even with minimal effort, the Aggies are going to move the ball at will and only when they decide to will the act of scoring cease. And in reality, that is the biggest factor of this handicap – when will Johnny Football and Kevin Sumlin decide to pack it in? And SMU is without question the quintessential team to play like garbage for 55 minutes but slip through the backdoor with a late touchdown after everyone turns the channel.

I expect A&M to come out strong and try to put this game away early. Their lack of motivation could get in the way of covering the game number so we'll instead focus our attention with a play on the first half.

 
Posted : September 18, 2013 10:35 am
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College Football Betting Preview: Tennessee at Florida
By Brian Edwards
Sportsmemo.com

Tennessee at Florida
Saturday, 12:30 PT – CBS
CRIS Opener: Florida -15.5 O/U 48
CRIS Current: Florida -16.5 O/U 47.5
Rob Veno’s Power Ranking: Florida -16.5
Brian Edwards’ Recommendation: Under

Florida will be seeking its ninth consecutive win over Tennessee when these bitter SEC East rivals square off Saturday at The Swamp in Gainesville.

Most books opened Florida (1-1 straight up, 0-2 against the spread) as a 14.5-point favorite Sunday night. However, by late Wednesday morning, most shops had the Gators favored by -17 with a total of 47.5. Gamblers can take the Volunteers on the money line for a +600 return (risk $100 to win $600).

Will Muschamp’s team has had two weeks to shake off a gut-wrenching 21-16 loss at Miami as a three-point road favorite. UF nearly doubled up the Hurricanes in total offense but went down nonetheless due to five turnovers, including three in the red zone. The Gators also got stopped on downs at the UM 17.

Tennessee (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) took a 59-14 shellacking last weekend at Oregon. The Vols failed to cover as 28-point underdogs. It was the most lopsided defeat for UT since 1910!

Butch Jones wasn’t pleased with his offense producing only 316 yards. In fact, he decided to open up the quarterback competition and stated that whoever was most impressive at practice this week would start. Justin Worley has started the first three games, throwing five touchdown passes compared to only one interception.

However, Worley hasn’t passed for more than 142 yards in a game. His longest completion of the season was a 15-yard throw turned into a 51-yard play by freshman WR Josh Smith. In six career starts, Worley has 962 passing yards and a 6/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

When these schools met at Neyland Stadium last season, UF dropped UT by a double-digit margin for the sixth straight time. The Gators racked up 555 yards of total offense behind Jeff Driskel, who completed 14-of-20 throws for 219 yards and two TDs without an interception. He also ran for 81 yards on eight carries, while Trey Burton rushed for 91 yards and a pair of scores on only three totes.

UF captured a 33-23 win over UT as a 10-point home favorite in the last meeting at The Swamp in 2011. The Gators allowed a 30-7 lead to get away as the Vols hooked up their supporters with a backdoor push.

Driskel and Burton will both be looking to make amends for critical errors in the loss at Miami. Driskel had a pair of horrible interceptions, while Burton coughed up a fumble in the red zone right before halftime.

Driskel suffered a sprained knee against the ‘Canes, but he will start against the Vols. UF will get starting offensive guard Jon Halapio back into the lineup after he missed the first two games with a strained pectoral muscle.

Tennessee will be without starting DT Mo Couch for a second straight week. Couch is ineligible while the school investigates whether he took extra benefits from an agent, as a Yahoo! report suggested last week.

Tennessee is an abysmal 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games as a double-digit underdog. During Muschamp’s three-year tenure, Florida has compiled a 5-7-1 spread record as a home favorite. UF is 3-7-1 ATS as a double-digit home chalk on Muschamp’s watch.

The over is 2-1 for UT, but the under is a perfect 2-0 for the Gators. UF’s two games have had combined scores of 30 and 37 points. The over has hit in three straight head-to-head meetings between these schools.

We’ve only seen two games, but I think Florida has the SEC’s best defense and perhaps the finest in America. On the other hand, the offense can’t be trusted. And until Driskel plays better, especially in the red zone, the under is going to continue to produce winners in UF games.

 
Posted : September 18, 2013 1:52 pm
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ACC Report - Week 4
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

The Atlantic Coast Conference has just three ranked teams heading into Week 4 action, but two of those teams are ranked eighth or higher in the Associated Press Top 25.

This weekend's slate of games in the ACC do not present a whole lot of must-see TV, but there are interesting matchups nonetheless. I think I'll be taking in the Pittsburgh-Duke game live at Wallace Wade Stadium with my two boys, and the weather looks like it will be absolutely beautiful for the first ACC road game for the Panthers.

The best game on the schedule might actually be the Clemson-North Carolina State game Thursday night in Raleigh. The Tigers have had their issues against the Wolfpack in years past, dropping a 37-13 decision in their last visit to Carter-Finley Stadium back on Nov. 19, 2011 when they entered play as the No. 7 team in the land.

Clemson at North Carolina State

As mentioned, the Tigers were treated rudely in their last visit to Raleigh. That's a rarity, however, as the Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their past six visits to Carter-Finley Stadium, and the road team is 13-3 ATS in the past 16 meetings in this series. NC State has traditionally come back strong after a bye, covering nine of their past 10 games in such situations. The Wolfpack is also 16-4-1 ATS in their past 21 home games against a team with a winning record. The total might be the most interesting play in Thursday's game. The 'over' has connected in each of Clemson's two games, while the 'under' has cashed in each of NC State's first two outings, including a 23-21 near-miss against Richmond Sept. 7. These two teams combined for 110 points in their last meetings Nov. 17, 2012, but that was when NC State had QB Mike Glennon at the controls. The quarterback play so far this season has been murky at best for the red and white.

North Carolina at Georgia Tech

Vad Lee led the Ramblin' Wreck to an impressive victory last weekend in his native Durham against Duke, and now he takes aim at another Triangle school. The Jackets are an impressive 2-0 ATS this season, and 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games in the month of September. Georgia Tech has also covered each of their past six ACC games. The Jackets are also the only FBS team yet to allow a sack. The Tar Heels haven't had a ton of luck in Atlanta in recent times, covering just two of their past eight trips to Bobby Dodd Stadium, and UNC has failed to cover in each of the past four meetings. In addition, Carolina is 1-6 ATS in their past seven road games, and they are just 1-9 in their past 10 league openers dating back to 2001.

Marshall at Virginia Tech

It won't be easy for the Hokies, who narrowly escaped Greenville last weekend with a 15-10 road win at East Carolina. Meanwhile, Marshall looks to bounce back after a shocking 34-31 loss at Ohio. QB Rakeem Cato has been putting up video game-like numbers, and he has at least one touchdown pass in 21 straight games, which is the second longest active streak in FBS. Cato has jelled nicely with TE Gator Hoskins, and the Hokies will need to shut down that connection if they are to pull away. While a single-digit spread is rather attractive if you can get it, remember Virginia Tech is just 7-20-2 ATS in their past 29 games, and 2-9-2 ATS in their past 13 non-conference battles.

Pittsburgh at Duke

Things started out well for Duke, who hammered NC Central 45-0 in their opener. They then hit the road for Memphis, and pulled off an impressive 28-14 victory against the Tigers. However, they lost QB Anthony Boone (collarbone) to a broken collarbone, and for the Blue Devils, that is the kind of loss that cannot easily be overcome. As it is, Duke is 0-5 ATS in the past five conference games, and 1-4 ATS in their past five at Wallace Wade Stadium. Pitt hits the road for the first time in ACC play, and they are looking to improve on their 13-4 ATS mark over the past 17 games. The 'under' might also be a tempting play, cashing in eight of Pitt's past 10 road battles.

West Virginia at Maryland

The Mountaineers and Terrapins are frequent combatants, and it remains to be seen if their series will continue on once Maryland moves to the Big Ten. The Mountaineers have dominanted lately, covering five of the past six meetings. The road team is also 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings, while the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five. The recent trends for each side seem to favor Maryland, as West Virginia is 6-13 ATS in their past 19 games against ACC opponents, and 1-5 ATS in their past six neutral-site games. The Terps are 4-0 ATS in their past four non-conference games, 5-0 ATS in the past five overall, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record.

Other Games
Wake Forest at Army (12:00 p.m. ET)
Tulane at Syracuse (12:30 p.m. ET)
Virginia Military at Virginia (3:30 p.m. ET)
Bethune Cookman at Florida State (6:00pm ET)
Savannah State at Miami, Fla. (7:00pm ET)

Byes
Boston College

 
Posted : September 19, 2013 9:04 am
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Week 4's Top Games
By Phil Steele
ESPNInsider.com

Each week during the 2013 college football season, I will offer up my picks and scores for the biggest games in addition to a handful of other key matchups.

Week 3 is in the books and my picks went 7-2, giving me an overall record of 19-8.

While this week's slate of games looks like a bit of a letdown after last week's Alabama-Texas A&M thriller, there are some intriguing conference matchups along with some longtime nonconference rivals squaring off. I tried to find games that could offer a lot of split opinions.

No. 23 Arizona State Sun Devils at No. 5 Stanford Cardinal

This week's only game involving two ranked teams takes place in the Pac-12 as the Sun Devils, fresh off a controversial 32-30 win over then-No. 20 Wisconsin, travel to take on the defending Pac-12 champion Cardinal, who are off to a 2-0 start after last week's 34-20 win over Army.

These two conference foes have not met since 2010, but Stanford is going for three straight wins in the series for only the second time (1999-2001).

After two wins over overmatched foes in San Jose State and Army, this will be the first legitimate test for the Cardinal. Last week's relatively close game can be excused when you consider the Cardinal were traveling across the country, playing at 9 a.m. PT time. Plus, Stanford had to face Army's option offense.

Quarterback Kevin Hogan is now a perfect 7-0 as a starter, and last year had four wins over ranked teams. On the other side, prior to last week's win over the Badgers, the Sun Devils' only win in the Todd Graham era over a team with a winning record came in last year's bowl game over Navy.

This will be the best defense that the Sun Devils have faced in two years. On the other side, I look for the Cardinal's excellent offensive line to wear down a relatively undersized Arizona State front seven that allowed 231 rush yards last week.

Pick: Stanford 31, Arizona State 20

Michigan State Spartans at No. 22 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

After going just 3-9 against the Spartans from 1997-2008, the Fighting Irish have now won three of the past four games over MSU, including two straight for the first time since 1993-1994. Last year's 20-3 win also ended Michigan State's 15-game home winning streak.

Last week, the Irish were in a flat spot against Purdue and found themselves down 17-10 into the fourth quarter before they scored three touchdowns in a span of 3:30 to make it 31-17. Quarterback Tommy Rees has thrown for more than 300 yards in all three games this year, but the Irish's ground game has averaged just 94 yards per game (YPG) the past two weeks. It will not get any easier for the Irish this week as they go up against a Spartans D that ranks No. 1 in the country in total defense, allowing just 177 YPG, albeit against poor competition.

On the other side, the Notre Dame defense has been a disappointment but will face a Michigan State offense that had struggled mightily prior to last week's 55-17 win over Youngstown State. After throwing four touchdown passes in Week 3, MSU quarterback Connor Cook will be making his first career road start in South Bend, where the Irish have won nine straight home games, their longest streak since 1997-1999.

Nine of the past 13 meetings between these teams have been decided by single digits, and I expect more of the same Saturday with the Irish winning their third straight.

Pick: Notre Dame 23, Michigan State 17

Auburn Tigers at No. 6 LSU Tigers

Both teams come in a perfect 3-0. Last week Auburn capped off an 88-yard drive with a touchdown pass with 10 seconds left to beat Mississippi State 24-20. Quarterback Nick Marshall continues to improve each week and connected on 6 of 8 passes on the game-winning drive. However, he will be making his first career road start in one of college football's toughest settings: a night game at Death Valley.

LSU QB Zach Mettenberger continues an impressive season to date under the tutelage of new offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. He has completed 66 percent of his passes the past two weeks (albeit against UAB and Kent State), and has a 9-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the season.

While LSU does have a huge game against Georgia on deck, you have to think Auburn left it all on the table last week and will have no answer for an LSU attack that features a one-two punch at wide receiver in Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham, who are averaging a combined 316 all-purpose YPG this year.

Pick: LSU 38, Auburn 21

Tennessee Volunteers at No. 19 Florida Gators

The Gators have won eight in a row in this series by an average of 16 points. Last year, Tennessee led 14-10 at halftime, but Florida, true to form in the Will Muschamp era, made adjustments at the break and outgained the Vols in yardage to the tune of 399-109 in the second half in its 37-20 win.

This year, Florida comes in off a bye after a disappointing 21-16 loss to Miami. The Gators had a 22-10 first-down advantage and 413-212 yard edge in the game, but inefficiency in the red zone was the issue as they had two turnovers and also were stopped on downs. Quarterback Jeff Driskel threw for a career-high 291 yards but now has 12 turnovers in his past seven starts. On the bright side, the Gators defense ranks among the best in the country despite returning only three starters from last year.

Tennessee comes in off its worst loss since 1910; after leading Oregon 7-0 early, it was all downhill from there in the Vols' 59-14 loss to the Ducks. Quarterback Justin Worley, despite having a 5-1 TD-INT ratio, is averaging just 124 YPG and the Vols overall are getting outgained by 49 YPG.

Look for the Gators to shut down the Volunteers offense and, as long as Florida can clean up the turnovers in the red zone on offense, it should come away with a two-touchdown win.

Pick: Florida 30, Tennessee 16

Utah State Aggies at USC Trojans

Utah State quarterback Chuckie Keeton deserves Heisman consideration as he is averaging 308 pass YPG to go with a 12-1 TD-INT ratio. However, he will be facing a USC defense that is allowing just 212 YPG and 10 PPG this year. Last week, the Trojans offense finally kicked into gear as quarterback Cody Kessler completed 15 of 17 passes for 237 yards. In the end, the Trojans get their second straight win before a showdown with Arizona State next week.

Pick: USC 30, Utah State 20

Arkansas Razorbacks at Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Arkansas is off to a 3-0 start under new coach Bret Bielema and its offense looks much like Wisconsin's in recent years as running backs Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins have each topped 100 yards in the first three games. While both Arkansas QB Brandon Allen and Rutgers signal-caller Gary Nova were hurt in last week's games and are questionable this week, I think the Hogs have the better supporting cast and will move to 4-0.

Pick: Arkansas 24, Rutgers 18

Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Longhorns

I had extremely high expectations for Texas this season but clearly the Horns have disappointed. They come in reeling after back-to-back losses and now face a Kansas State team that has beaten them five straight times despite the Wildcats getting outgained in all five of those games by an average of 96 yards. Sooner or later, the Horns will play up to their talent level. Plus, earlier this week Gary "the Gut" Galante went with Texas and I always stick with "the Gut."

Pick: Texas 34, Kansas State 28

Utah Utes at Brigham Young Cougars

Utah and BYU have been playing the "Holy War" since 1896, but this is just one of many longtime rivalries that looks to be going by the wayside because of conference realignment. The Utes have now beaten the Cougars three straight years; however, this year BYU has the situational edge coming off a bye week after its impressive win over Texas while Utah comes in off a tough overtime loss to Oregon State. The Cougars get revenge and bragging rights until they meet again in 2016.

Pick: BYU 34, Utah 27

 
Posted : September 20, 2013 8:14 am
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Pac-12 Report - Week 4
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

There have been a few constants for bettors in the Pac-12. It's no surprise that Oregon has been cleaning up, going 3-0 SU and ATS, and the 'over' has cashed in all three of their games to this point, too. However, how many people saw Washington State emerging as a cover king? They have covered the spread in each of their first three contests. Bettors have also enjoyed success bettings overs in California and Utah games, as the total has gone over in each of their first three games.

The conference schedule won't get revved up full-time until next weekend, but this week the only league game features two Top 25 teams squaring off. Arizona State sure looked for real slaying Wisconsin in Tempe last week, now they hit the road trying to drop the Stanford Cardinal in Palo Alto. The league's marquee member, Oregon, is on a bye this weekend.

Last weekend, the league went 9-2 straight up and 5-6 ATS. The home teams were 5-2 straight up and 3-4 ATS, while road teams were 4-0 straight up and 2-2 ATS. The 'over' went 7-4 last week, with the 'over' going 5-2 for the home teams.

Utah State at Southern California

Utah State might not have the pedigree that USC football has, but they are a damn fine squad. The Aggies will definitely not be a pushover, as QB Chuckie Keeton has completed 78.1 percent of his passes to date, throwing for 923 yards with 12 touchdowns and just one interception. He is a dual-threat QB, too, as he can be dangerous with his feet when given the opportunity. He has thrown for five scores in each of the past two games, so USC would be wise not to overlook USU. The Aggies are 13-2-1 ATS in their past 16 games overall, 6-1-1 ATS in their past eight road contests, 11-2 ATS in their past 13 non-conference tilts, and 19-7-1 ATS in their past 27 against teams with a losing record. The light might have finally went off for the Trojans last week, as they humped up on visiting Boston College after a shocking home loss to Washington State the week prior. Still, USC is just 1-5 ATS in their past six games overall, and 2-6 ATS in their past eight against a team with a winning record. Keep an eye on the total in this one, too. The under is 12-4 in Utah State's past 16 on grass, and the under is 3-0 for USC this season, and 5-0 in their past five overall.

Arizona State at Stanford

There is no rest for AZ State after their solid 32-30 win against Wisconsin last week. They're right back at it against another tough opponent, this time on the road, in Palo Alto. The Sun Devils have had a tough time covering lately, going 2-5 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record. They're also 16-33-3 ATS in their past 52 road games against a team with a winning home record. Lastly, they have followed up an ATS loss with another loss in seven of their past nine. For Stanford, they traversed the country and took care of business at Michie Stadium in West Point, but looked a little sluggish in doing so. Still, cut them a little slack since they were dealing with a three-hour time change, essentialy playing when they'd normally be finishing up breakfast at home. The Cardinal are 5-2 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record, and 4-1 ATS in their past five Pac-12 tilts. In this series, the favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the past five matchups, and the Sun Devils are a paltry 1-5 ATS in their past six trips to Palo Alto.

Oregon State at San Diego State

Oregon State might have been involved in one of the most exciting games in all of college football last week, edging Utah 51-48 in overtime in Salt Lake City. The win didn't come without a huge price tag, however, as the team lost starting RB Storm Woods (concussion) to a head injury. Woods was actually taken off on a stretcher and loaded into an ambulance on the field. However, it turned out to be 'just' a concussion, which is great news, as it could have been much worse. Anyway, RB Terron Ward is expected to start in Woods' stead, and that major piece of the offense being on the sidelines makes Oregon State a less than attractive play, although high-flying QB Sean Mannion and WR Brandin Cooks are still healthy. The Aztecs are 0-5 ATS in their past five non-conference games, and they're 3-10 ATS in their past 13 against Pac-12 teams. Each of these teams lost to an FCS team in their openers, with Oregon State slipping up against Eastern Washington and San Diego State getting crushed at home by Eastern Illinois.

Utah at Brigham Young

As usual, Lavell Edwards Stadium in Provo will be rocking when in-state rival Utah pays a visit. The Utes are going to be angry, too, after dropping a heartbreaker at home to Oregon State 51-48 in overtime. BYU will be looking for a little revenge, too, after dropping a 24-21 decision to Utah last season in Salt Lake City. The Utes are 1-5 ATS in their past six road games, while BYU is 10-3 ATS in their past 13 games against a team with a winning record. The total might be the play in this one, as the 'over' has cashed in four straight for Utah, and is 4-1 in their past five against non-conference teams. The over is 4-1 in BYU's past five against Pac-12 teams. The Utes have covered four of the past five meetings, and they're 7-2 ATS in their past nine trips to Provo. The underdog is also 13-3 ATS in the past 16 meetings in this series, which takes a two-year break after Saturday's game.

Other Games
Idaho State at Washington (Pac-12 Network, 3:00 p.m. ET )
Idaho at Washington State (10:30 p.m. ET )
New Mexico State at UCLA (Pac-12 Network, 10:30 p.m. ET)

Byes

Arizona, California, Colorado, Oregon

 
Posted : September 20, 2013 8:38 am
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Big Ten Report - Week 4
By ASAWins.com

In Week 3, the 12 schools in the Big Ten went 7-5 both straight up and against the spread in non-conference play. A lot of talk was made out of Wisconsin getting robbed in the desert against Arizona State but the group was also lucky to see Michigan get past Akron at the Big House. The 'over' went 6-6 last weekend.

Wisconsin (-24, 47.5) vs. Purdue

There’s not much left to say about the events that led to a loss for Wisconsin against Arizona State. Wisconsin was far from perfect in that game, but the Badgers fought hard in all three phases and it’s a shame that the refs took away an opportunity for a game-winning field goal in the final seconds. Wisconsin received another huge effort from their running game, especially RB Gordon who tallied 193 yards and two touchdowns. He now ranks 2nd in the NCAA in rushing yards and 1st with a 12.9 YPC average. QB Stave was an inefficient 15-of-30 passing for 187 yards, but he didn’t have a turnover and faced constant pressure on dropbacks. Defensively the Badgers performed well against a very strong offense. They held ASU QB Kelly to just 56% completions with no touchdown passes. They also held ASU to just 116 rushing yards on a 2.8 YPC average. They’ll have to rebound quickly and try to avoid a hangover here for first official Big Ten game of the season. Purdue played its best game last week in a home loss to Notre Dame. The Boilers held a lead over the Irish into the 4th quarter, but that’s when the wheels fell off. Notre Dame gained 214 of its 400 yards in the 4th quarter and also had an interception returned for a touchdown. Quarterback Rob Henry looked the most comfortable he’s looked all season, but the offense only had 38 rushing yards on 21 carries (1.8 YPC) and the defense couldn’t get off the field late in the game. The schedule doesn’t do them any favors as they now have to travel to Camp Randall Stadium, where they’ve lost three straight – including a 45-point loss the last time here. Wisconsin is 7-0 SU & ATS in its last seven games against Purdue, winning by an average of 24.7 points per game. Last year the Badgers notched 645 total yards and 467 rushing yards.

Michigan State (+6.5, 41.5) at Notre Dame

Michigan State finally discovered its offense last week. It came against FCS Youngstown State, but it was a refreshing sight nonetheless. Newly appointed starting QB Connor Cook completed 15-of-22 passes for 202 yards and four scores and the running game churned out 277 yards on 49 carries and helped the Spartans hold the ball for nearly 40 minutes of game time. The 547 total yards and 30 first downs were season highs for this offense and they couldn’t have come at a better time. MSU’s defense was its usual self. Sparty’s stop unit allowed just 172 total yards and eight first downs. This defense ranks 1st in total yards allowed, 4th against the rush, 5th against the pass, and 12th in points allowed. Now the Spartans have a newfound confidence heading into their rival matchup with Notre Dame. ND might be getting a bit overvalued by the oddsmakers early this season. They are already 0-3 ATS with three less than inspiring performances. Temple was able to hang around too long, Michigan beat ND by double digits, and Notre Dame nearly pulled off an upset on the road last week. They don’t have much of a running game to speak (92nd in rush YPG with 2 rushing TD) and are asking QB Rees to do too much. He’s answered the call nicely (969 passing yards & 7 touchdowns), but he’ll face his most difficult test against the Spartans this weekend. Sparty’s pass defense has allowed opposing QB’s to complete just 35-of-101 passes (34%) for 126 yards per game with 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. The Irish have won two years in a row over MSU, including last year’s 20-3 shutdown performance. MSU has covered seven of the last eight trips to South Bend.

Michigan (-17.5, 51) at Connecticut

Michigan was extremely fortunate to come away with a home win last week against mighty…Akron? That’s right; the same team that beat Notre Dame by double digits needed a 4th & Goal stop on defense in the final seconds to hold off the Zips. Michigan played uninspired football with four turnovers. Devin Gardner completed just 16-of-30 passes for 248 yards with 2 TD and 3 INT and the Wolves were 3-of-10 on 3rd down. Michigan’s defense was also vulnerable, allowing 418 yards, 21 first downs, and 50% conversions on 3rd down to the lowly Zips. They’ll try to work on all of those issues in their final game before conference play begins. The Wolves are 17.5 point favorites in their first road game at UConn this Saturday. We would say that UConn has the “advantage” of playing at home here, but that doesn’t appear to be the case this year. UConn is 0-2 at home this season after losing to FCS Towson in week one and Maryland last week. The Huskies have problems all over the place. They rank 124th in rushing yards, 104th in total yards, and 101st in yards allowed. Michigan won the only prior meeting in 2010, 30-10. The Wolves are 4-9 SU in true road openers since 2000 and haven’t been this big of a non-conference road favorite since 1998.

Indiana (+3, 71) vs. Missouri

Indiana put together arguably its best performance of the season in last week’s win over a quality Bowling Green opponent. BGU blocked a punt and returned it for a touchdown early in the game, but that was the only TD from the Falcons. Indiana’s normally transparent defense held BGU to just three offensive points. The Falcons did achieve 409 yards and 24 first downs, but the Hoosiers made stops when it mattered. Indiana got more than enough offense behind 335 passing yards from QB Sudfeld and a combined 284 rushing yards from RB’s Houston & Coleman. This week an SEC opponent comes to Bloomington and it marks the Hoosiers’ toughest opponent to date. Missouri had last week off after two easy wins in its first two games. The Tigers beat FCS Murray State (by 44 points) and Toledo (by 15) at home to start 2-0. Missouri has had a very balanced attack through two games, averaging 265 rush yards per game and 274 pass yards per game. QB Franklin has completed 66.7% of his passes and there are four players with 110+ rushing yards. This is just Missouri’s 3rd regular season true road game since 2002. The Tigers are 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite.

Penn State (-20.5, 53.5) vs. Kent State

Penn State mounted a solid comeback last week after being down 28-10 to UCF, but it was too little too late and the Nittany Lions fell by three, 34-31. UCF was able to gain 508 yards against this PSU defense with little resistance. QB Bortles completed 20-of-27 for 288 and three scores and UCF ran for 220 yards on 37 carries (5.9 YPC average). The Lions will have a chance to clean up that defense here against Kent State before it plays against three potent Big Ten offenses – Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio State. PSU’s offense wasn’t the problem against UCF. Freshman QB Hackenberg had another strong outing (21-of-28, 262 YDS, 1 TD, 0 INT) and PSU notched 193 rushing yards on 5.5 YPC. This offense is playing consistently well and Hackenberg is maturing every week under HC Obrien’s tutelage. Kent State has had a rough go of things early this season after an impressive 11-3 finish last year. Top playmaker RB Archer has been injured since week one and this offense has suffered greatly. The Flashes rank 116th in total offense and 109th in scoring. The defense isn’t any better. KSU’s stop unit ranks 103rd in yards allowed and 93rd in points allowed. They are beat up after a blowout road loss to a physical LSU team last weekend and things won’t get any easier here in Happy Valley on Saturday. These two met in State College in 2010 with PSU winning, 24-0 as a 21-point favorite.

Minnesota (-4.5, 51) vs. San Jose State

Health is a main concern this week for the Gophers. Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill missed the 2nd half of last week’s game after suffering his fourth game-day seizure. He is back to practice and is expected to be back on the sidelines this weekend. The same can’t be said about starting QB Nelson. Nelson suffered a hamstring injury in the 2nd quarter and was unable to return in the 2nd half. He remains questionable for Saturday’s non-conference finale against San Jose State. QB Leidner came in to complete 7-of-8 passes for 105 yards and also rushed for 64 yards in Nelson’s absence. The Gophers are also preparing to welcome back 2012 leading rusher Donnell Kirkwood back from an ankle injury. San Jose State is no gimme win for the Gophers. The Spartans have one of the top QB’s in the nation in David Fales. Fales had a rough outing at Stanford in his last game (29-of-43 for 216 with 1 TD and 1 INT), but Stanford has arguably the top defense in the nation behind only Alabama. Fales threw for 33 TD and 9 INT a year ago and Gophers pass defense will have to step up this week. Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last five games hosting non-conference opponents.

Iowa (-16.5, 50.5) vs. Western Michigan

Iowa is 2-1 this season and, for better or worse, all three have been tightly contested. Last week Iowa survived a late comeback attempt by in-state rival Iowa State. The Hawkeyes had a 27-7 lead in the 4th quarter before two quick ISU touchdowns made it a 6-point game with 2:26 remaining. Iowa has ridden RB Weisman hard and often. He leads the nation with 85 rushing attempts (10 more than 2nd place) and that has led to 425 rushing yards. Defensively the Hawks have been stellar. They are holding opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards per game and rank 28th in total yards allowed. They need to be, as their offense isn’t going to win many shootouts this season. Western Michigan comes to town this weekend having already dropped two road games against Big Ten opponents. The Broncos lost at Michigan State in week one by 16 points and at Northwestern last week by 21 points (2-0 ATS in those contests). Offensively they struggled against MSU & NW, averaging just 274 YPG and 15 PPG. Quarterbacks have completed just 34-of-89 passes (38%) in those two losses with four TD and four INT. Iowa is just 5-15 ATS its last 20 games when favored by 15 points or more.

Ohio State (-50) vs. FCS Florida A&M

Maybe Braxton Miller should sit out more often? It didn’t matter that the Buckeyes were without their Heisman candidate QB at Cal last week. Backup QB Guiton led the Buckeyes to a season-high 52 points. He threw for 276 yards and 4 TD (no INT) and rushed for 92. RB Hall pitched in with 168 yards and three scores as OSU ran away with this one. Cal features a pretty potent offense that was able to rack up 503 yards and 34 points, but OSU never really felt threatened in this game (Cal never cut it to single digits after 11:27 remaining in the 1st quarter). They’ll get a tune-up game this week against FCS Florida A&M before conference play kicks off with a key game against Wisconsin next weekend.

Northwestern (-28) vs. FCS Maine

Northwestern notched its fifth straight victory by 14 points or more (dating back to 2012) with last week’s 21-point win over Western Michigan. The Wildcats ran 55 times for 332 yards and four touchdowns. This year’s team is more dynamic on offense than they’ve ever been and that’s remarkable considering they’re still without top RB Mark. That defense remains too generous (442 YPG allowed) but they’ve been able to mask it with timely takeaways. Still, that stop-unit will get one last chance to correct itself with a tune-up game against FCS Maine this weekend.

Nebraska (-20.5) vs. FCS South Dakota

Nebraska was feeling good up 21-3 against UCLA last week before everything fell apart. UCLA scored 38 unanswered points en route to a 20-point victory over Nebraska in Lincoln. The Bruins had their way with the Huskers in a 28-point 3rd quarter outburst. Overall, the Huskers were outgained by 173 yards and had six fewer first downs. Nebraska managed just 3.0 YPC and was converted on just 21% of its third downs. To make things worse, a voice recording came out this week of HC Bo Pelini bashing the Nebraska faithful (though the recording was from 2011). Will the Huskers unravel under the circumstances? Or will they come together to salvage their season? Unfortunately we won’t get much of an answer as they take on FCS South Dakota State this week.

Illinois – Bye Week

Illinois gets a bye week after suffering its first loss of the season to Washington. Credit the Illini for cutting the deficit to seven points in the 4th quarter after trailing by 21, but they were outplayed the entire game. Washington outgained Illinois by 288 yards and had a +13 first down advantage. The Illini defense allowed UW QB Price to complete an extremely efficient 28-of-35 passes for 342 yards and two scores. After two solid performances to start the season, Illini QB Scheelhaase reverted back to his 2012 form. He completed just 9-of-25 passes for 156 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. Illinois will take the week off before hosting Miami (OH) next week.

 
Posted : September 20, 2013 8:40 am
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College Football Betting Preview: Auburn at LSU
By Alatex Sports
Sportsmemo.com

Auburn at LSU
Saturday, 4:45 pm PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener: LSU -14 O/U 57
CRIS Current: LSU -16.5 O/U 55
Rob Veno's Power Rating: LSU -19
Brent Crow's Recommendation: LSU

Auburn has used a very favorable schedule to get off to a 3-0 start under first-year head coach Gus Mahlzan. The Tigers’ victories have come against Washington State, Arkansas State and Mississippi State; none of which are anywhere near the class of this week’s opponent. The fast start has calmed down the Auburn fans after last year’s disaster under Gene Chizik. While three wins is definitely better than three losses, I am not sure there is much difference between this year’s team and last year’s group. The defense is still a big question mark as Auburn has allowed at least 400 yards of offense in all three wins to offenses that have been subpar otherwise. They were able to force three turnovers against Washington State and held Arkansas State to three field goals despite giving up 886 yards in those two games. Last week they overcame three turnovers and won despite allowing 415 yards to Mississippi State with its backup quarterback.

Auburn has definitely been better on offense with new quarterback Nick Marshall, who was previously a defensive back at Georgia before going the JC route last year. Marshall has a big arm, but lacks accuracy and has never played a road game at this level, much less a night game in Baton Rouge. He hasn’t made many costly mistakes yet, but I don’t think he can avoid them this week against LSU.

LSU has also gotten off to a 3-0 start with wins over TCU, UAB and Kent. The TCU game in Houston was no pushover, but LSU beat them worse than the 37-27 final score indicates. TCU ran a kickoff back for a touchdown for one score and had just 259 yards of total offense. LSU also held UAB and Kent under 300 total yards for the game and despite losing several key defenders to the NFL, they still look like they have a very strong defense.

The biggest area of improvement for LSU thus far has been the offense under quarterback Zach Mettenberger. He had flashes of brilliance last year, but other games where he looked average at best. So far he is thriving under the leadership of new offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. LSU has averaged 488 yards of total offense and Mettenberger has thrown for nine touchdowns and no interceptions with a QB rating of 205.3 this year after tossing just 12 touchdowns with seven interceptions and a QB rating of 128.3 a year ago. He definitely looks like a different quarterback this year and as always he has plenty of weapons around him like Odell Beckham and Jeremy Hill.

With all of the publicity surrounding Alabama, Texas A&M, Georgia and South Carolina in the SEC thus far, LSU has kind of been forgotten about. They have clearly been the second best team in the nation over the past five years and there doesn’t appear to be much drop off this year if any. In fact, they may wind up being the best team in the league and the nation when it is all said and done. Look for them to make Marshall’s first road game one that he would like to forget.

 
Posted : September 20, 2013 9:11 am
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College Football Betting Preview: Arizona State at Stanford
By Rob Veno
Sportsmemo.com

Arizona State at Stanford
Saturday, 4 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener: Stanford -6.5 O/U 52
CRIS Current: Stanford -5.5 O/U 51
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Stanford -11
Rob Veno's Recommendation: Over 1st Half

It was good for the Sun Devils to play Wisconsin last week since the Badgers are a near mirror image of Stanford offensively. ASU’s defense had to deal with the power style rushing attack of Wisconsin and the subsequent play-action passing that goes with it. The problem is, Arizona State didn’t fare all that well at stopping the Badgers who rolled to 441 total yards on 7.0 per play which included 232 rushing yards and 7.2 per carry. That’s a major problem as Todd Graham’s team leaves the cozy confines of Sun Devil Stadium for the first time this season to play at Stanford in their PAC-12 opener.

Another fundamental problem will likely be the Stanford defense which is a cohesive force and not one in transition like Wisconsin’s (Badgers switched to a 3-4 scheme). Against Wisconsin last Saturday, the Sun Devils found weaknesses in the pass defense and exploited it relentlessly in the second half. Their up-tempo style in the Tempe heat wore Wisconsin down. In particular, Arizona State found a one-on-one matchup with 6’4” sophomore receiver Jaelen Strong versus Wisconsin’s much shorter corners which propelled their second half drives and scoring. While significant size advantages may not exist for the ASU offense here, they could benefit from the absence of Stanford starting cornerback Barry Browning who is out for this game. The Sun Devils won’t have the help of the heat to wear the rugged Stanford defense down. It could also be tough sledding for star running back Marion Grice against Stanford’s brick wall of a front seven. Moving the football consistently will likely have to start with the tempo passing game in order to open up some running lanes. Quarterback Taylor Kelly who figures to be under a lot of pressure against the aggressive Cardinal “D” will need to be extremely efficient if ASU is to have offensive success.

Stanford meanwhile will as always look to establish the ground game and there have been some rumblings this week that they may open up the passing game and utilize their speed. Last week’s cross country, early start effort vs. Army was somewhat lackluster but they did end up with 408 total yards (203 yards rushing, 205 yards passing). Expect a more crisp performance from the quarterback Kevin Hogan led offense and the defense in this game.

Not having played each other the last two years this could become a game of which adjusts and gets acclimated the fastest. Stanford has not faced this Sun Devil offense under Graham so there may some parts of the playbook the visitors can capitalize on in the opening quarter and half. The Cardinal has also not seen the emergence of ASU defensive tackle Will Sutton as a beast on the defensive front. Blocking him in the run game and pass protection is critical. In the end, I think this side and total are too close to call but I’ll take a small shot with the first half over 26.5. These defenses could go through a feeling out period which would allow the offenses to take control early on and score some before the stop units settle in.

 
Posted : September 20, 2013 9:11 am
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Saturday's Top 13 Games

Florida won its last eight games vs Tennessee, covering five of last six; Vols lost last four visits here, by 10-10-39-9 points (1-3 vs spread). In last 13 meetings, Gators are +13 in turnovers; last time Tennessee had a positive turnover ratio vs Florida was 1999. Nationwide, home favorites are 3-8 vs spread so far, in conference play. Florida is 5-7 as home fave under Muschamp, who covered once in last eight games as double digit favorite. Tennessee gave up 687 yards in 59-14 loss at Oregon last week; they're 2-6 in last eight games as a road underdog.

First ACC road game for Pitt squad that is 7-3 vs spread in last 10 games as a road favorite; Panthers have a senior QB, decent experience on OL- they split pair of home games, drilling New Mexico last week after FSU QB winston carved them up in opener. Since '05, Duke is 12-24 vs spread as a home underdog; they gave up 344 rushing yards in 38-14 loss to Georgia Tech in ACC opener last week. Nationwide, conference home underdogs are 4-6 vs spread so far this season.

Underdogs are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine North Carolina-Georgia Tech games; Tar Heels lost last seven visits here (1-4-1 vs spread in last six). Tech is 13-2 in last 15 series games, winning last four by average score of 39-27- they had 380 rushing yards in 68-50 win at UNC last year. Tech is 13-11-1 as home favorite under Johnson; they've got national TV game vs Va Tech coming up Thursday. Carolina lost six of last eight on ACC road, with four of six losses by 7 or less points- they're 1-3-1 vs spread in last five games as a road underdog.

West Virginia won its last seven games vs Maryland, in series where the favorite is 10-5 vs spread in last 15 meetings. WVU scored 31+ points in last six series games, but they struggled on offense in first two games, vs Wm Mary/Oklahoma, before improving vs Georgia State last week. WV is 5-2 as underdog under Holgorsen, but they've got new QB, young OL. Terps are 4-5 as favorite under Edsall, 2-0 this year; Maryland gained 501 yards in 32-21 win (-6) at UConn last week, avenging LY's loss to the Huskies. Senior QB completed 67% of passes in first three games.

Air Force won six of last seven games vs Wyoming, in series where dog is 7-1 vs spread last eight years. Cowboys won two of last three series games; dogs covered five of last six series games played here. Air Force allowed 94 points in losing its two I-A games this year, getting smoked by Utah State (52-20), Boise (42-20). Inexperienced Falcons (30 starts back from LY on OL and new QB) are 5-2 as home dogs under Calhoun. Wyoming is 2-3 as road favorite under Christensen; they had 602 yards (219 running/383 passing) in 37-34 loss at Nebraska, a positive sign.

Utah-BYU is bitter rivalry where underdog is 12-4 vs spread the last 16 years, with three of last four meetings decided by 3 or less points; Utes are 5-3 in last eight visits here, with dogs 7-1 vs spread in eight games. BYU ran ball for 550 yards in 40-21 waxing of Texas last game, after it lost opener in monsoon at Virginia. Utah lost 51-48 at home to Oregon State last week; they're 10-10 as road dog under Whittingham. This used to be conference game, but BYU went independent, Utes went to Pac-12, which makes rivalry game little more important for Cougars.

Utah State is already playing third road game this month; since '07, State is 23-8 vs spread as road dog, going 14-2 under former coach Anderson (now at Wisconsin). Aggies have best QB (Keeton/24 starts) in this game vs USC, which is 8-4 in its last 12 games as home favorite. Trojans had excellent balance (257 yards running, 264 passing) in easy win over BC last week, after being held to 193 TY in upset loss to Wazzu. goes to Arizona State Thursday night, better not look past this gritty foe that lost its season opener 30-26 at end to Utah of Pac-12.

Houston is 8-3 in last 11 games vs inner-city rival Rice, winning last two years, 35-14/73-34; underdogs are 7-5 vs spread in last 12 series games, but this is no longer league rivalry, with Cougars in AAC now. Houston had last week off after winning AAC opener at Temple; they're 14-7 in last 21 games as favorite, 4-4 under Levine. Owls are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine games as underdog; they outgained Kansas by 100 yards in last week's 23-14 win, after hanging with A&M in the half Manziel sat out- they lost 52-31 when Manziel played the second half.

Underdogs are 10-5-1 vs spread in last 16 Michigan State-Notre Dame games, 6-2 in last eight series games played here; Irish whacked Spartans 31-13/20-3 last two years, after Spartans got win 34-31 two years ago, pulling fake FG in OT. State is 8-6 as road dog under Dantonio; they've struggled on offense so far, gaining 297-265 yards in two non-covers vs I-A foes. Irish are playing third straight Big Dozen foe and Oklahoma is coming to town next week; over last decade, ND is 18-32-2 when giving points at home, 8-9-3 under Kelly.

First road game for Kansas State squad that is 15-3 vs spread in last 18 games as road dog; they lost at home to I-AA team, then spanked couple of I-A stiffs. Texas is in freefall, giving up 84 points in losing last two games to BYU, Ole Miss; they've already axed their DC, the QB is hurt and rumors are everywhere that Mack Brown is lame duck. Longhornns gave up 550 rushing yards at BYU, then 272 at home to Rebels- they got outgained by total of 363 yards in two losses. Since 2009, Texas is 9-15 vs spread when laying points at home.

Arizona State won wild game at home last week, when refs screwed up spotting ball and didn't allow Wisconsin to try chip shot FG to win on last play, but a win is a win; ASU is facing Stanford for first time since 2010- favorites covered four of last five in series. Sun Devils lost five of last six visits here, with favorites 5-1 vs spread in those games- they are 12-20-2 as road dogs since '03. Stanford coasted past Army last week on east coast- they're 2-8 in last ten games as home favorites. Cardinal has experience edge on OL, ASU has it at QB. Interesting game.

LSU won four of last five games with Auburn; favorites covered four of those five games. Auburn lost last six visits to LSU by average score of 31-14 (2-4 vs spread). This is first road game for Auburn QB Marshall, who has been shaky throwing ball but did lead game-winning drive in last minute vs Miss State last week. Auburn is 2-7 as road underdog since Cam Newton left town. LSU is 7-18-1 vs spread in its last 26 SEC home games- they beat TCU in Ft Worth (semi-road game) then crushed pair of stiffs. QB Mettenberger is playing great under OC Cam Cameron.

Missouri was outgained 387-384 in last game by Toledo; they had last week off, while Indiana was crushing pretty good Bowling Green squad 42-10 (-2.5) week after they lost at home to Navy. Big Dozen teams are 7-9 vs spread in non-league games; SEC teams 7-10, 1-3 on foreign soil. Hoosier QB Sudfeld is completing 71% of passes- Indiana is 7-4 in last 11 games as home underdog (4-4 under Wilson). Hoosiers have 19 of 22 starters back from LY; progress is expected. Missouri covered nine of last 12 games as a road favorite.

Rest of the Card; notes on rest of the games, except for the games where the spread is 30+

-- Western Michigan lost/covered by 13-21 already this year at Michigan State, Northwestern of Big Dozen. Iowa is 5-7 vs spread in its last dozen games as a HF.
-- Wake Forest (-7.5) ran ball for 296 yards in 49-37 home win vs Army LY; since '06, Deacons are 4-7 as a road favorite.
-- Over last decade, UConn is 15-6 as a home underdog, but they lost 32-21 at home to Maryland last week (+6.5) after losing to I-AA Towson. Michigan snuck by Akron 28-24 last week, they're 3-1 as road favorites under Hoke.
-- Wisconsin won its last seven games vs Purdue, covering last six, with average score 38-11. Boilers are 4-2 vs spread in last six as road dogs in conference play.

-- Ball State won six of last seven games with Eastern Michigan, with an average total of 59.9. Underdogs covered four of last five in series.
-- Kent State covered four of last five games as a road dog after losing at LSU last week 45-13 (+36). Penn State is 6-2 as a home favorite since O'Brien became coach.
-- Virginia Tech is 3-8 as a home favorite last two years; they've got TV game with Georgia Tech coming up Thursday. Since 2005, Marshall is 15-22-1 when getting points on the road (4-7-1 with Holliday).
-- Cincinnati won its last seven games with Miami O, covering six of the seven; Miami is 8-5 vs spread in its last 13 games as a home dog.

-- Minnesota is 4-2 as a home favorite under Kill; they open Big Dozen play with Iowa next week. Mountain West road underdogs are 5-7 vs spread in non-league games this season.
-- Over last 3+ years, Mississippi State is 10-4 as a home favorite, but they were outgained 572-457 in 30-24 (-14) win at Troy last year.
-- Underdogs covered six of last seven Hawai'i-Nevada games, with Wolf Pack winning three of last four meetings- they won 69-24 LY.
-- Texas A&M crushed SMU last two years, 48-3/46-14; Sumlin teams are 9-8 vs spread in games following a loss. SMU is 3-8 in its last 11 games as a road underdog.

-- Arkansas State beat Memphis last two years, 33-28/47-3; ASU is 7-1 in its last eight games as road favorites. AAC teams are 0-3 vs spread as as non-conference home underdogs this season.
-- Louisiana Tech lost its coach, 15 starters from LY; since '04, they are 15-30 vs spread as road underdogs. Kansas is 3-5 in last eight games as a home favorite (0-2 under Weis).
-- Rutgers (+9.5) upset Arkansas 35-26 LY, despite Hogs passing for 419 yards. Since 2009, Scarlet Knights are 5-10 as home favorites.
-- Akron lost 28-24 at Michigan last week, getting stopped at 5-yard line in last minute. Zips are 4-12 in last sixteen games as a home underdog.

-- Middle Tennessee won its last five games with FAU, covering three in row, winning by 14-24-24 points. Blue Raiders are 11-4 as favorites on the road under Stockstill. Owls are 9-7 in last 16 games as a home dog.
-- Syracuse is 6-8 in last 14 tries as a home favorite. Tulane is 9-7-1 in last 17 games as a road dog; their QB is Nick Montana, Joe's son- they won SU as an underdog at Louisiana Tech last week.
-- Toledo won its last three games vs Central Michigan, scoring 50-44-42 points; favorites covered five of last six series games. Chippewas are just 1-15 vs spread in last six games as a home underdog.

-- Texas Tech squashed Texas State last two years 58-10/50-10; Tech is 13-16 vs spread in last 29 games as a home favorite.
-- Oregon State won conference game in OT on road last week; since '07, Beavers are 3-5 as road favorites. San Diego State is 5-7 vs spread under Long in non-conference games.
-- UTEP scored 77 points in splitting first two games; Miners are 0-4-1 in last five tries as a home favorite. UTSA is on road for third time in last four weeks- they gave up 94 points last two weeks (Okla St/Arizona).

Armadillosports.com

 
Posted : September 20, 2013 9:52 am
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Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Afternoon action
By Covers.com

We give a quick look at all of Saturday's Top 25 afternoon betting action from Week 4 of the college football schedule:

Florida International Golden Panthers at Louisville Cardinals (-43, 56.5)

Louisville will try to avoid a letdown Saturday at home when it hosts Florida International, a team that has given the Cardinals fits the last two years. Louisville is coming off a 27-13 victory at Kentucky in its first road game last Saturday, which vaulted the Cardinals to the No. 6 spot in the country. Teddy Bridgewater threw for 250 yards and a touchdown as Louisville won for the 14th time in its last 16 games.

The Golden Panthers had two turnovers and committed seven penalties in a 34-13 loss at home to Bethune-Cookman last weekend. More notable was the fact that they were outgained on the ground by a 311-73 margin, which does not bode well against a Louisville rushing attack that found its groove at Kentucky. Sophomore quarterback Jake Medlock threw for a season-high 149 yards and had his first passing touchdown in the loss.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with a 13 percent chance of rain.
LINE: Louisville opened as a 42-point favorite and is currently -43. The total has held firm at 56.5.
TRENDS:

* The Golden Panthers are 0-6 ATS versus a team with a winning record.
* The Cardinals are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 versus CUSA.
* The Under is 5-1 in the Cardinals last six games overall.

Florida A&M Rattlers at Ohio State Buckeyes (-50)

The Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference representatives will be hard-pressed to keep pace with the explosive Buckeyes after mustering just nine first downs and 219 yards of total offense last week. Junior Damien Fleming has struggled mightily, throwing five interceptions while rolling up only 383 yards this season. Florida A&M has scored 54 points combined in its three games this season, which sits just nine better than Ohio State's average.

Ohio State anticipates the return of Heisman Trophy candidate Braxton Miller on Saturday to conclude the non-conference portion of its schedule. Sidelined with a sprained knee ligament, Miller expects to get the kinks out on Saturday afternoon as the third-ranked Buckeyes tune up for Big Ten play by hosting FCS representative Florida A&M. Senior quarterback Kenny Guiton didn't miss a beat last week as he threw for four touchdowns - including a school-record 90-yard scoring strike to Devin Smith on the team's second offensive play - in Ohio State's 52-34 triumph over California last week.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s and a 56 percent chance of rain is in the forecast.
LINE: Ohio State opened as a 50.5-point favorite and is currently -50.
TRENDS:

* Rattlers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Buckeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a SU win.
* Rattlers are 0-6 ATS in their last six non-conference games.

North Texas Mean Green at Georgia Bulldogs (-33.5, 67)

The Mean Green battled back from a 27-9 second-quarter deficit to earn a 34-27 win over Ball State last week behind a pounding running attack that churned out 231 yards. Quarterback Derek Thompson is part of that running game and led North Texas to 1,395 yards of total offense - the most for the school in its first three games since 1951. The Mean Green are getting plenty of help from their defense, which forced 11 turnovers in the first three contests.

The Bulldogs remade much of their defense in the offseason and believe they once again can return to an elite level on that side of the ball. While the defense gets settled, the offense has the ability to keep the team in the win column behind Aaron Murray, who threw for four touchdowns in a 41-30 victory over South Carolina on Sept. 7, and running back Todd Gurley.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with a 96 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast.
LINE: Georgia opened as a 31.5-point favorite and is currently -33.5. The total opened at 67.
TRENDS:

* Mean Green are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a bye week.
* Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
* Over is 9-3 in Bulldogs last 12 home games.

Idaho State Bengals at Washington Huskies (-49)

The Bengals rolled up the yardage against the two Division II opponents with junior quarterback Justin Arias (868 yards) topping 400 yards in each game and senior receiver Cameron Richmond making a combined 21 receptions for 301 yards. Arias is completing 66.3 percent of his passes for four touchdowns but will be hard-pressed to come close to a high-yardage output against a Pac-12 defense. They have lost 18 consecutive games against FBS opponents.

Huskies tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins had just three receptions for eight yards against the Fighting Illini after missing the opener due to a suspension, while sophomore wideout Jaydon Mickens has been highly productive in the first two games with 17 receptions. Junior defensive end Josh Shirley has three sacks, while junior middle linebacker John Timu (team-high 18 tackles) is questionable after bruising his right rotator cuff against Illinois.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with a 58 percent chance of rain.
LINE: Washington opened as a 49-point favorite.
TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in Bengals last four road games.
* Huskies are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Bengals last four non-conference games.

Michigan State Spartans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-5, 42)

Spartans QB Connor Cook threw for four first-half touchdowns and 202 yards overall to seize the starting job. Running back Jeremy Langford has scored four touchdowns and is averaging 4.5 yards per carry but coach Mark Dantonio termed him a player that can "pop a big one." Still, the onus will fall on Michigan State's defense, which ranks fifth nationally with an average of 126.7 passing yards against but has yet to face a high-powered offense.

Tommy Rees threw two scoring passes to DaVaris Daniels during a 21-point blitz in a span of 3 1/2 minutes against Purdue and can become the first Notre Dame QB to open a season with four consecutive 300-yard games. The more pressing concern for the Irish is plugging the holes in a defense that has surrendered 65 points in the last two games - one fewer than it allowed in the first seven contests last season.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s and wind will blow at 12 mph toward the south end zone.
LINE: Notre Dame opened as a 6.5-point favorite with the line now -5. The total opened at 40.5 and is up to 42.
TRENDS:

* Spartans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in Notre Dame.
* Road team is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
* Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.

Maine Black Bears at Northwestern Wildcats (-28)

The Black Bears, from the FCS Colonial Athletic Association, knocked off an FBS school in Massachusetts already this season and displayed a tight defense in their two road victories. That defense needs to find a way to contain the Wildcats’ running game, which is piling up an average of 249 yards. That ground game is supplemented by a two-quarterback system featuring Trevor Siemian and Kain Colter, who is also one of the team’s most effective runners.

Northwestern is getting used to strong starts under coach Pat Fitzgerald and 2013 is no exception. The 16th-ranked Wildcats are averaging over 500 yards of offense and already own wins over a pair of major-conference opponents as they gear up for the start of Big Ten play. Northwestern will get one more chance to pad its record before diving into the heart of the Big Ten when it hosts Maine on Saturday.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s and wind will blow toward the south end zone at 10 mph.
LINE: Northwestern opened as a 28-point home favorite.
TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
* Wildcats are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Tennessee Volunteers at Florida Gators (-16.5, 47)

The Volunteers have put up solid numbers on the ground - mostly in their first two contests - with running back Rajion Neal (257 rushing yards, 4 TDs) leading the way, but the passing game has left something to be desired. In fact, offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian told reporters Wednesday that junior quarterback Justin Worley is competing with freshmen Nathan Peterman, Joshua Dobbs and Riley Ferguson and "the process could go all the way into pregame warm-ups."

Florida ranks third in the nation in total defense (208.5 yards per game), but the offense was plagued by five turnovers against Miami. Quarterback Jeff Driskel's inconsistency has been emblematic of the Florida offense, as the junior passed for a career-high 291 yards against the Hurricanes but also threw two interceptions and lost a fumble.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-80s with partly cloudy skies and a 19 percent chance of rain.
LINE: Florida opened as a 14.5-point favorite and is currently -16.5 The total opened at 47.
TRENDS:

* Road team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Volunteers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Gators are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week.

UL Monroe Warhawks at Baylor Bears (-30, 75.5)

Baylor held on to beat the host Warhawks in last year’s meeting 47-42 and Louisiana-Monroe returns Kolton Browning at quarterback. He was named Sun Belt Conference Offensive Player of the Week after throwing for 315 yards and three touchdowns last weekend in a 21-19 victory at Wake Forest.

Baylor has outscored its first two opponents by a combined total of 139-16, so quarterback Bryce Petty hasn’t logged many second-half minutes. Still, he has connected on a nation-leading 80 percent of his passes and contributed four touchdowns through the air without an interception. Baylor running back Lache Seastrunk had just one carry when these teams last met, but has since reeled off six straight 100-yard games dating to last season.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s and wind will blow across the field at 9 mph.
LINE: Baylor opened as a 27-point favorite and is currently -30. The total opened at 74.5 and is up to 75.5.
TRENDS:

* Warhawks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.
* Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a bye week.
* Over is 6-0 in Bears last six games in September.

 
Posted : September 20, 2013 8:39 pm
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Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Evening action
By Covers.com

Check out quick-hitting betting notes for Saturday's evening college football Week 4 action:

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at Florida State Seminoles (-40)

The Wildcats have wins in three straight games to start a season for the first time since 2010 and have won 10 of their past 11 contests. Bethune-Cookman's defense has been stout, holding opponents to less than 10 points per game and has also managed three defensive touchdowns. Senior linebacker Jarkevis Fields leads the team with 23 tackles and had a game-high six in the win over Florida International.

The Seminoles have been firing on all cylinders on offense, passing the century mark in points through their first two games for the second consecutive season, with nine different players scoring touchdowns. Against Nevada, Florida State compiled 617 yards and 59 unanswered points, coasting to a 62-7 victory. Junior Nick O'Leary has hauled in three touchdown catches, trailing only Indiana's Ted Bolser among FBS tight ends.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with a 43 percent chance of thunderstorms.
LINE: Florida State opened as a 40-point home fave.
TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in Seminoles last four games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
* Over is 3-0-1 in FSU's last four games after totaling more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Over is 3-0-1 in Seminoles last four games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.

Arizona State Sun Devils at Stanford Cardinal (-5.5, 51.5)

The 23rd-ranked Sun Devils emerged with a 32-30 victory over Wisconsin last week when the Badgers mismanaged the clock and failed to get off a last-second field goal. Arizona State was fortunate to defeat Wisconsin, but a matchup with No. 5 Stanford should provide another stiff test in what easily could be a Pac-12 title game preview.

The Cardinal have three matchups with ranked teams in the next five weeks, so they will need senior running back Tyler Gaffney (236 yards, three touchdowns in 2013) to be on top of his game. Of course, they won’t be getting any sympathy cards from the Sun Devils, who are in the midst of a six-game stretch that includes four ranked opponents. Arizona State has a standout running back of its own, as Marion Grice rushed for four touchdowns in the bizarre win over Wisconsin.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with a 40 percent chance of rain.
LINE: Stanford opened as a 7-point home fave but is now -5.5. The total opened at 49.5 and is up to 51.5.
TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Sun Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in Stanford.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Colorado State Rams at Alabama Crimson Tide (-39, 51)

The Rams are 39 1/2-point underdogs against the Crimson Tide, who have gone 27-3 against nonconference opponents under coach Nick Saban, including 20 straight victories. Rams coach Jim McElwain was Alabama's offensive coordinator from 2008-2011 before leaving for Colorado State last season.

Heisman Trophy candidate AJ McCarron, who had a career-high 334 passing yards and four touchdowns in last week’s win over the Aggies, could be in for a short night on Saturday if the Crimson Tide take control early. The rebuilding Rams, who are 2-11 all-time against SEC opponents, lost their first two games to Colorado and Tulsa before defeating Cal Poly 34-17 last Saturday.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with a 90 percent chance of rain.
LINE: Alabama opened as a 38-point home favorite and is now -39. The total opened at 51.
TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0-1 in the Crimson Tide's last five games overall.
* Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a SU win.
* Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

SMU Mustangs at Texas A&M Aggies (-28.5, 78)

Southern Methodist's visit to old Southwest Conference rival Texas A&M on Saturday could be a high-scoring affair. The ninth-ranked Aggies and the Mustangs have two of the most productive offenses in the country and struggling defenses. But the Mustangs have had little success recently against Texas A&M, going 0-11-1 in their last 12 meeting, including three straight losses since the SWC ended in 1995.

The Aggies — ranked 112 out of 123 FBS teams in total defense (489 yards allowed) and 115th in run defense (260 yards) — allowed 11 plays of 15-plus yards to Alabama. "We're going to have to defend the whole field — vertically and sideline to sideline — because (the Mustangs) are going to stretch us out to make us play in space," Sumlin said Tuesday.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms.
LINE: Texas A&M opened as a 28.5-point favorite. The total opened at 79.5 and is down to 78.
TRENDS:

* Mustangs are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. SEC.
* Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a S.U. loss.
* Over is 4-0 in Aggies last four home games.

Savannah State Tigers at Miami Hurricanes (-60)

The Tigers, who have registered only one victory in each of the previous three seasons, won for the first time since defeating Edward Waters 42-35 in October 2012. Savannah State was outgained 425-243 against the Wildcats and has mustered only 573 yards of total offense thus far. The Tigers have been particular woeful on the ground (rushing for a total of 52 yards this season, including no more than 21 in any contest) and holding onto the ball, committing 10 turnovers.

The Hurricanes were far from dominant in their win over the Gators, as they were outgained 413-212 and gave up more than twice as many first downs (22-10). One area on offense Miami has thrived is scoring quickly – all eight of its drives have taken less than three minutes.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with partly cloudy skies.
LINE: Miami opened as a 59.5-point favorite and is currently -60.
TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in Hurricanes last five games following a bye week.
* Hurricanes are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a ATS win.
* Hurricanes are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week.

Auburn Tigers at LSU Tigers (-16.5, 55)

Death Valley has long been a hostile environment for opponents, but the month of September has proven to be every bit as difficult. No. 7 Louisiana State, which hosts Auburn in a battle of two 3-0 SEC teams, is 26-1 over its last 27 home games - but has rolled off a FBS-best 28 consecutive victories in September since a 2006 setback against Saturday’s foe. LSU has blended its usual stout defense with a resurgent offense led by first-year offensive coordinator and former NFL coach Cam Cameron.

Auburn is coming off last Saturday’s dramatic 24-20 home victory over Mississippi State, which snapped its 10-game losing streak within the conference. Auburn will have its hands full in its first game away from home as it tries to end its seven-game road losing streak in a venue in which it has not won since 1999.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with an 83 percent chance of thunderstorms.
LINE: LSU opened as a 16-point fave and is currently -16.5. The total opened at 56 and is now down to 55.
TRENDS:

* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings.

Michigan Wolverines at Connecticut Huskies (+17.5, 51)

A week after defeating rival Notre Dame in an emotional affair, No. 14 Michigan needed a goal-line stand in the final seconds to hold off an upset bid from Akron. Following a mass exhalation, the Wolverines travel to Connecticut looking to wrap up the non-conference portion of their schedule unbeaten. Michigan won the only meeting in the series 30-10 in 2010.

For UConn, a nationally televised date with Michigan is truly a step onto the big stage but the timing couldn't be worse. Not only are the Huskies winless but limp into the contest with many questions, especially on the offensive side of the ball. A few years after boasting one of the nation's best rushing attacks, UConn enters next-to-last in the nation at 59 yards per game.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with a 21 percent chance of rain.
LINE: The line opened at UConn +17.5. The total opened at 52 but has moved down to 51.
TRENDS:

* Wolverines are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 4-0 in Huskies last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Huskies are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games following a ATS loss.

New Mexico State Aggies at UCLA Bruins (-42, 66.5)

After scoring 38 consecutive points to beat Nebraska 41-21 last week, 15th-ranked UCLA returns home Saturday to face winless New Mexico State. The Bruins are 42-point favorites over the Aggies, who have lost their first three games by a 93 combined points.

The Aggies are allowing an average of 47.3 points and scoring 16.3 per game under first-year coach Doug Martin. Bruins sophomore quarterback Brett Hundley entered the Heisman Trophy discussion with his play last week when he threw for 294 yards and three touchdowns and rushed 19 times for 61 yards.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s and wind will blow toward the north end zone at 6 mph.
LINE: UCLA opened as a 40-point home fave and is currently -42. The total opened at 66 and is up to 66.5.
TRENDS:

* Over is 7-0 in Aggies last seven games overall.
* Bruins are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.
* Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Pac-12.

 
Posted : September 20, 2013 8:40 pm
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Essential Betting Tidbits For Week 4 of College Football
By Covers.com

We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Saturday's college football action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.

- The North Carolina Tar Heels and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets played in the highest scoring game in ACC history last November. The Jackets won 68-50 and the teams combined for 1,085 yards of total offense and 16 touchdowns. Total is 59.5 for Saturday's matchup.

- The Florida International Golden Panthers are 0-3 and have been outscored 115-23 in the process. The Panthers travel to Papa John's Cardinal Stadium to face No. 6 Louisville and are 42-point underdogs.

- The UMass Minutemen have just 21 first downs on offense but have allowed 106 this season. The Minutemen are 31-point home dogs to Vanderbilt.

- The San Jose State Spartans will be without star-WR Noel Grigsby (10 rec, 106 yards, 2 TDs) who injured his knee at practice Wednesday and did not travel to Minnesota. The Spartans are 4-point dogs Saturday.

- The Virginia Tech Hokies are on a seven-game winning streak against Marshall. Hokies are 10-point home faves Saturday.

- The Toledo Rockets are 0-9 O/U in their previous nine games. Total is 56.5 at Central Michigan.

- The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against Florida Atlantic. Raiders are 3.5-point road faves Saturday.

- The Western Michigan Broncos face their third Big Ten program in four weeks as they travel to Iowa. They are 0-2 SU but 2-0 ATS having covered at Michigan State and at Northwestern. Iowa is a 16-point home fave.

- The Kansas Jayhawks are currently riding a 22 game losing streak against Bowl Subdivision schools. 10.5-point faves with Louisiana Tech in town Saturday.

- Army hosts the ACC's Wake Forest Demon Deacons Saturday. The Deacons are 5-0-1 O/U in their last six versus ACC opponents. Saturday's total is 49.5.

- The North Texas Mean Green have lost 34 straight games to ranked opponents. They are 33.5-point road dogs as the face No. 10 Georgia Saturday.

- After starting QB Anthony Boone broke his collarbone against Memphis on Sept. 7, Brandon Connette is back under center for the Duke Blue Devils. He was 15-of-28 for 122 yards in his first start one week ago, which was a 38-14 loss to Georgia Tech. Duke is a 3.5-point home dog with Pitt in town.

- Syracuse will give QB Terrel Hunt his first career start versus Tulane. Six of the Orange's last seven starting quarterbacks have lose their first game.

- Eastern Michigan will play host to Ball State Saturday. The Over is 4-0 in the previous four meetings and 6-1 in the last seven between the two schools. Total is 57.5 for this matchup.

- Houston WR Markeith Ambles will likely make his debut versus Rice Saturday. The WR transferred from Arizona Western Community College after beginning his career at USC. Houston is a 3-point fave.

- Michigan State is No. 12 in the country in points against (12.0). Spartans are 5-point road dogs at Notre Dame.

- The last time Kent State played Penn State was in 2010. Penn State's defense pitched a shutout in a 24-0 victory. Nittany Lions are 22-point home faves.

- Tennessee has not fared well in its recent meetings with Florida. The Volunteers are 1-4-1 ATS in the last six meetings with the Gators. Florida is a 16-point home fave.

- Wisconsin is No. 5 in the country averaging 337 rushing yards per game and Badgers RB Melvin Gordon is second in rushing yards with 477. The Purdue defense allowed Cincinnati to rumble for 221 rushing yards back in Week 1. Wisconsin is favored by 22 points at home.

- The Arkansas Razorbacks are tough down the stretch. They have outscored their first three opponents 21-0 and outgained them 308-78 in the fourth quarter. The Razorbacks are 2.5-point road dogs as they travel to Rutgers.

- Maryland is one of three teams in the country that has compiled 500-plus yards of total offense in the first three games of the season. The other two are Oregon and California. Maryland is a 5-point fave against rivals West Virginia.

- Utah State QB Chuckie Keeton is third in the country with a 78.1 completion percentage (82-of-105). Keeton has 12 TD passes and just one pick. Utah State is a 6.5-pont road underdog at USC Saturday.

- The Miami (Ohio) RedHawks are dead last in the nation with just 16 first downs. The RedHawks are 23-point home dogs with Cincinnati in town.

- Baylor defeated UL Monroe 47-42 last season. The Bears are 30.5-point faves and the total is 75 in this season's meeting.

- The Arkansas State Red Wolves have converted 26-of-47 third-down opportunities (55.3 percent), while Memphis has converted just 30.3 percent (10-of-33). Memphis is a 4-point home dog.

- The Akron Zips are 0-5 ATS and 1-4 SU in their last five home games. The Zips are 6-point home dogs with the UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns in town.

- The Arizona State Sun Devils have not fared well in recent trips to Stanford posting a 1-5 ATS mark in the last six meetings there. The Cardinal are 5.5-point home faves.

- The Texas A&M Aggies haven't lost a non-conference home game to a Texas school since 1954 (Texas Tech). -27.5 home faves with SMU in town Saturday.

- Alabama head coach Nick Saban faces his former offensive coordinator Jim McElwain who is the new head coach at Colorado State. Saban and the Tide are 39-point home faves.

- Texas State will have a tough test as they are away to Texas Tech Saturday. But the Bobcats are ranked No. 4 in the country allowing just 9.0 points against thus far. Tech is a 27.5-point home fave.

- San Diego State has lost 20 of its previous 21 games against the Pac-12. The Aztecs are 8-point home dogs as they host Oregon State.

- Troy's QB Corey Robinson is the NCAA's active leader is passing attempts, completions and yards. Troy is a 13.5-point road dog against Mississippi State Saturday.

- The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between LSU and Auburn. LSU is a 16.5-point home favorite Saturday evening.

- UConn is expecting a record crowd at 40,000 capacity Rentschler Field as the Huskies play host to Michigan. UConn is an 18.5-point home dog.

- The Kansas State Wildcats are on the road to face the Texas Longhorns. The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings and are 6.5-point road dogs Saturday.

- The Indiana Hoosiers average 50.0 points per game through their first three games and host the Missouri Tigers, who are averaging 48.0 ppg. The total is currently 71.

- The UTSA Roadrunners are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall and are 2.5-point road dogs at UTEP Saturday.

- Most shops opened the line in the Hawaii at Nevada game with Nevada as a 12.5-point favorite. That line has been coming down all week and is currently Nevada -7.

- It's an all Utah affair as BYU hosts Utah Saturday night. BYU is a 6.5-point home fave, but the underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.

- Wyoming is one of nine programs to begin the season 3-0 ATS. The Cowboys are 4-point road faves at Air Force Saturday night.

- The UCLA Bruins have outscored their opponents 72-7 in the second half of their first two games. The Bruins are 42-point home faves against New Mexico State.

- The Idaho Vandals lead the country with eight fumbles lost. +31 at Washington State Saturday night.

 
Posted : September 20, 2013 8:41 pm
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Michigan State at Notre Dame: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Michigan State Spartans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-4.5, 42)

An unblemished regular season in 2012 is a distant memory for No. 21 Notre Dame, which needed a spectacular comeback last week to avoid taking a losing record into Saturday's home matchup with 24th-ranked Michigan State. It marks the third consecutive Big Ten Conference opponent for the Fighting Irish and the first road test for the Spartans, who debuted in the Top 25 this week. Notre Dame turned in a suffocating defensive effort in a 20-3 win at Michigan State last season.

The matchup provides an intriguing contrast in styles: The Irish are averaging 29.7 points behind an outstanding passing game while the Spartans lead the nation with an average of 177 total yards allowed. "When you're talking about the No. 1 defense, there's a reason for it,” Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly said. "It's personnel-driven and certainly there's scheme. So you have to be aware of both." The Spartans are 11-2 in non-conference play since 2011 - with both losses coming to the Irish.

LINE: Notre Dame opened as high as -7.5 and has been bet down to -4.5. The total has moved from 41 to 42 points.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 60s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing NW at 11 mph.

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (3-0, 1-2 ATS): The Spartans have been waiting for someone to emerge from a crowded quarterback competition and sophomore Connor Cook did just that in last week's 55-17 rout of FCS foe Youngstown State, throwing for four first-half touchdowns and 202 yards overall to seize the starting job. Running back Jeremy Langford has scored four touchdowns and is averaging 4.5 yards per carry but coach Mark Dantonio termed him a player that can "pop a big one." Still, the onus will fall on Michigan State's defense, which ranks fifth nationally with an average of 126.7 passing yards against but has yet to face a high-powered offense.

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (2-1, 0-3 ATS): The biggest concern entering the season was how to replace suspended quarterback Everett Golson (academics), but Tommy Rees has allayed any doubts by throwing for 969 yards in the first three games. He threw two scoring passes to DaVaris Daniels during a 21-point blitz in a span of 3 1/2 minutes against Purdue and can become the first Notre Dame QB to open a season with four consecutive 300-yard games. The more pressing concern for the Irish is plugging the holes in a defense that has surrendered 65 points in the last two games - one fewer than it allowed in the first seven contests last season.

TRENDS:

* Spartans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in Notre Dame.
* Road team is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
* Spartans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.
* Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Notre Dame is 25-2 in games in which it has outrushed its opponent under Kelly.

2. Cook is the first Michigan State player to throw four TD passes in a half since Drew Stanton in 2005.

3. The Irish are seeking their 10th consecutive win in South Bend.

 
Posted : September 20, 2013 8:43 pm
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Arizona State at Stanford: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Arizona State Sun Devils at Stanford Cardinal (-5.5, 51.5)

Arizona State is coming off a thrilling yet controversial win, but the Sun Devils have no time to celebrate as they face a tough challenge with Saturday’s road game against Stanford. The 23rd-ranked Sun Devils emerged with a 32-30 victory over Wisconsin last week when the Badgers mismanaged the clock and failed to get off a last-second field goal. Arizona State was fortunate to defeat Wisconsin, but a matchup with No. 5 Stanford should provide another stiff test in what easily could be a Pac-12 title game preview.

The Cardinal have three matchups with ranked teams in the next five weeks, so they will need senior running back Tyler Gaffney (236 yards, three touchdowns in 2013) to be on top of his game. Of course, they won’t be getting any sympathy cards from the Sun Devils, who are in the midst of a six-game stretch that includes four ranked opponents. Arizona State has a standout running back of its own, as Marion Grice rushed for four touchdowns in the bizarre win over Wisconsin.

LINE: Stanford opened as a 7.5-point home favorite and has been bet down as low as -6. The total has moved from 48.5 to 51.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 60s with a 40 percent chance of showers and winds blowing west at 9 mph.

ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (2-0, 1-1 ATS): “This is the game our players have looked toward all offseason,” said Arizona State coach Todd Graham, who added that Saturday’s showdown “is a great opportunity for us to take a step forward as a program.” For that to happen, the Sun Devils will need improved play out of a rushing offense that, despite Grice’s touchdown production, ranks just 85th in the nation with 137.5 yards per game. On the bright side, Taylor Kelly set a career high with 352 passing yards against Wisconsin and has thrown for at least 300 yards in both games this season.

ABOUT STANFORD (2-0, 0-2 ATS): The Cardinal defense, which statistically was the best in the Pac-12 last season, returns eight starters from 2012. However, Stanford has won its first two games on the heels of a dynamic offense led by Gaffney and junior Kevin Hogan, who has five passing touchdowns on the season, two of which have gone to Ty Montgomery. The Cardinal have scored exactly 34 points in each of their first two games – wins over San Jose State and Army – though it’s their pass defense (seventh nationally) that has really turned heads through the season’s first two weeks.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Home team is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Sun Devils are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Sun Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in Stanford.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Cardinal and Sun Devils have not faced each other since 2010, when Andrew Luck led Stanford to a fourth-quarter comeback win at Arizona State.

2. Stanford is 8-2 at home against ranked opponents since 2009.

3. Arizona State’s All-American DT Will Sutton has had a quiet start to the season (three total tackles) after leading the Pac-12 with 23.5 tackles for loss in 2012.

 
Posted : September 20, 2013 8:44 pm
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