Auburn at LSU
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Auburn has jumped out to a 3-0 record with wins over Washington State, Arkansas State and Mississippi State at home on The Plains. In doing so, Gus Malzahn’s team has matched its season win total of a year ago.
With that said, didn’t we expect Auburn (3-0 straight up, 1-2 against the spread) to be unbeaten at this point? We won’t find out if this team is ready to return to the upper echelon of the SEC until we see it square off against LSU on Saturday night at Tiger Stadium.
As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had LSU (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) listed as a 17-point favorite with a total of 54. Gamblers can take AU to win outright for a +650 payout (risk $100 to win $650). For first half-wagers, LSU is favored by 9.5 with a total of 28.
Les Miles’s team has picked up wins over TCU, UAB and Kent St. The Bayou Bengals spanked Kent St. by a 45-13 count last Saturday, but they failed to take the cash as 35.5-point home favorites.
Zach Mettenberger threw for 264 yards and three touchdowns. The senior QB has nine TD passes without an interception through three games. Jeremy Hill added 118 yards and a pair of TD runs on just 11 carries against the Flashes. Hill is averaging 9.8 yards per carry in the last two games after sitting out the opener vs. TCU due to a suspension.
Auburn had to mount a long drive late in the fourth quarter to pull out a 24-20 win over Mississippi St. in the SEC opener for both schools. With 10 seconds remaining, Nick Marshall hit C.J. Uzomah with an 11-yard scoring strike to cap the game-winning drive.
AU failed to cover the spread as a 6.5-point home favorite. The 44 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 50-point total.
Although he was intercepted twice, Marshall threw for 339 yards and a pair of TDs. For the season, Marshall has 585 yards passing and 102 yards rushing. The juco transfer, who will be making his first career road start at LSU, has a 4/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Since 2008, Auburn has been atrocious as a road underdog with a 4-12 spread record. During that same time frame, AU has gone 3-8 ATS in 11 games as a double-digit underdog.
In nine years under Miles, LSU owns a 20-31-1 spread record as a home favorite. Sine 2008, LSU has compiled a 15-20-1 ATS mark in 36 games as a double-digit favorite.
LSU safety Craig Loston, a second-team All-SEC selection last year, is ‘questionable’ with a leg injury that kept him out of last week’s win over Kent St. Auburn’s starting senior cornerback Chris Davis is also ‘questionable’ with a leg injury.
LSU has won five of the last six head-to-head meetings against Auburn, but AU has a respectable 3-3 spread record during that span. When these teams met on The Plains last season, LSU won a 12-10 decision but never threatened to cover the number as an 18-point road ‘chalk.’
In the last meeting in Baton Rouge, LSU cruised to a 45-10 win as a 21-point home favorite.
The ‘under’ is 10-3 in the last 13 head-to-head encounters between these SEC West rivals.
LSU has seen the ‘over’ hit in all three of its games to date. On the flip side, the ‘under’ is a perfect 3-0 for Auburn.
ESPN will provide television coverage at 7:45 p.m. Eastern.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Texas QB David Ash was downgraded to ‘doubtful’ Friday for Saturday’s game vs. Kansas St.
Alabama has suspended RB T.J. Yeldon for the first quarter of Saturday’s home game vs. Colorado St. We presume the wrist tap is for the throat-slashing gesture he used after scoring a TD at Texas A&M last week.
CORRECTION: In the nuggets section of my Boise St.-Fresno St. preview, I wrote that North Texas is 10-5 ATS as a double-digit underdog on Dan McCarney’s watch. That was false because those double-digit ‘dog spots date back to before McCarney took over. The Mean Green, a 33-point ‘dog at Georgia, is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 double-digit ‘dog situations (with and before McCarney).
Michigan has been a double-digit road ‘chalk’ just once under Brady Hoke. In that spot last season, the Wolverines rolled to a 35-13 win at Minnesota as 10.5-point favorites. They are laying 18 points Saturday at UConn. The Huskies are 4-2 ATS as home underdogs during Paul Pasqualoni’s tenure.
With its backdoor spread cover in Thursday’s loss to Clemson, North Carolina St. improved to 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games as a home underdog.
Vandy owns a 6-1 spread record in seven games as a double-digit favorite on James Franklin’s watch. The Commodores are favored by 29 Saturday at UMass.
Texas A&M’s Johnny Manziel had 562 yards of total offense against Alabama last week. That effort was the second-best in SEC history behind only his 576-yard output at La. Tech last season.
Mississippi St. senior quarterback Tyler Russell is ‘doubtful’ vs. Troy. Russell threw for 2,897 yards with a 24/10 TD-INT ratio last season, but he might have trouble getting his starting job back. In his absence, Dak Prescott has played well. Prescott provides more of a running dimension, rushing for 134 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s heartbreaking loss at Auburn. He completed 15-of-28 passes for 213 yards on The Plains.
Coaches on the Hot Seat:
1-Mack Brown (Texas)
2-Lane Kiffin (USC)
3-Paul Pasqualoni (UConn)
4-Bo Pelini (Nebraska)
5-Bobby Hauck (UNLV)
SEC Power Rankings:
1-Alabama
2-Georgia
3-LSU
4-South Carolina
5-Texas A&M
6-Florida
7-Ole Miss
8-Vanderbilt
9-Auburn
10-Arkansas
11-Missouri
12-Mississippi St.
13-Tennessee
14-Kentucky
Line Moves - Week 4
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 3 Recap
Favorites: 4-2 ATS (6-0 SU)
Underdogs: 2-3 ATS (0-5 SU)
Totals: 3-1
Since we started tracking the line moves, bettors following the line moves on favorites have performed well. While the ‘chalk’ went 6-0 straight up and 4-2 against the spread in Week 3, underdogs didn’t show up again, posting a 2-3 ATS mark for the second consecutive week. Totals that saw movement went 3-1 last week, which was an improvement from 3-5 in Week 2.
Week 4 Line Moves
Once again, the oddsmakers at the offshore sportsbooks CRIS opened up their college football lines just before 12:00 p.m. ET last Sunday. Below are all of the major moves of “Four Points” or more off the opening line from CRIS.
Favorites
Syracuse vs. Tulane
Open: Syracuse -10½
Friday: Syracuse -16
Penn State vs. Kent State
Open: Nittany Lions -14
Friday: Nittany Lions -22
Betting Note - Golden Flashes RB Dri Archer (ankle) is listed as 'doubtful' for Saturday. In case you're not familiar with Archer, he's the most explosive player on offense for Kent State.
UCLA vs. New Mexico State
Open: Bruins -38
Friday: Bruins -42½
Underdogs
North Texas at Georgia
Open: Mean Green +36½
Friday: Mean Green +32½
Vanderbilt at Massachusetts
Open: Minutemen +36
Friday: Minutemen +31
Hawaii at Nevada
Open: Warriors +14
Friday: Warriors +9
Betting Note – Wolfpack QB Cody Fajardo (knee) sat out last week’s loss at Florida State and is ‘questionable’ for Saturday.
Idaho at Washington State
Open: Vandals +35
Friday: Vandals +30½
Week 4 Total Moves
CRIS opened their ‘over/under’ numbers on Monday afternoon. There hasn’t been a lot of movement this week with the college football totals so we’re listing all of the moves of “2½ Points” or more off the opening line.
Wake Forest at Army
Open: 47½
Friday: 49½
North Carolina at Georgia Tech
Open: 56½
Friday: 59
Louisiana-Monroe at Baylor
Open: 72½
Friday: 75
Wyoming at Air Force
Open: 64
Friday: 66½
SMU at Texas A&M
Open: 82
Friday: 79
Idaho at Washington State
Open: 55½
Friday: 58
Games to Watch - Week 4
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Arizona State (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) at Stanford (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS)
Todd Graham’s team was extremely fortunate to beat Wisconsin 32-30 as a six-point home favorite Saturday night in Tempe. Stanford won 34-20 at Army but never threatened to cover the number. Most books are listing the Cardinal as a 7½ or eight-point ‘chalk.’ Stanford is an abysmal 2-7 ATS in its last nine games as a home favorite. Since 2011, ASU is 1-4-1 ATS as a road underdog. These Pac-12 rivals haven’t met since 2010 when Jim Harbaugh’s last team picked up a 17-13 win at ASU. However, the Cardinal failed to cover as a 4½-point road favorite. Kickoff is slated for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on FOX.
Michigan State (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Notre Dame (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS)
As of early Sunday night, most books had Notre Dame favored by 6½ or seven. During Mark Dantonio’s tenure, Michigan St. owns an 11-3 spread record in 14 games as a road underdog. The Spartans are the nation’s top-ranked defense in total yards allowed, surrendering just 177.0 per game. They finally got decent quarterback play in Week 3 when Connor Cook threw four TD passes without an interception. Notre Dame is 0-3 ATS this year after failing to cover in Saturday’s 31-24 win at Purdue as a 17-point road favorite. Irish QB Tommy Rees has 960 passing yards and a 7/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Brian Kelly’s team has cashed tickets at a 7-9-3 ATS pace in 19 games as a home favorite on his watch. NBC will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
Tennessee (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Florida (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS)
The Gators have won eight in a row over UT, including last season’s 37-20 victory in Knoxville as three-point underdogs. Most books had UF favored by 14 or 14½ on Sunday night. Will Muschamp’s team had an open date after losing a 21-16 decision at Miami. QB Jeff Driskel sprained his knee against the Hurricanes, but he’s ‘probable’ and expected to start vs. UT. UF starting OG Jon Halapio is poised to make his season debut after missing the first two games with a strained pectoral muscle. Butch Jones’s team took a 59-14 shellacking Saturday at Oregon as a 29-point road underdog. UF is 5-7 ATS as a home favorite under Muschamp. CBS will provide television coverage at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
North Carolina (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) at Georgia Tech (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
North Carolina opened the season with a 27-10 loss at South Carolina. Next, the Tar Heels beat Middle Tennessee 40-20 as 19½-point home favorites. They had an open date following the win over the Blue Raiders. Senior QB Bryn Renner, who had a 28/7 TD-INT ratio last year, has thrown a pair of TD passes and one interception. RB Romar Morris has rushed for a pair of scores and is averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Ga. Tech has won four in a row and seven of the last eight against UNC, including a 68-50 triumph in Chapel Hill last season. The Yellow Jackets are 2-0 both SU and ATS with wins vs. Elon (70-0) and at Duke (38-14). Vad Lee threw four TD passes and ran for another score against the Blue Devils. Most books have tabbed Paul Johnson’s team as a six-point favorite. Johnson’s team is in the midst of a 7-1 ATS run dating back to 2012. ESPN will have the telecast at noon Eastern.
Arkansas (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Rutgers (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS)
Due to the uncertain status of Rutgers QB Gary Nova, there was no line as of early Sunday night. Arkansas will be seeking revenge for last season’s 35-26 loss to the Scarlet Knights as a 9½-point home favorite. The Razorbacks are off to a 3-0 start under new coach Brett Bielema, but they have failed to cover the spread in back-to-back outings. Arky is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog. RU is 3-5 ATS as a home favorite during Kyle Flood’s tenure. Since losing a 52-51 overtime decision at Fresno St. in its opener, Rutgers has won a pair of games over Norfolk St. (38-0) and Eastern Michigan (28-10). Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.