College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, September 2nd, 2017

College Football Week 1

Colorado State had 525 TY, 31 FD in 58-27 win over Oregon State last week. Colorado is 7-3 in its last ten games with State; they crushed the Rams 44-7 LY, outgaining CSU 578-225. Buffs lost 8 starters on defense; they’ve got 9 starters back on offense but their QB has only 3 career starts. Since 2013, Colorado is 11-4 vs spread as a favorite. State is 8-3 as an underdog under Bobo; they’ve got 8 starters back on defense, and a senior QB wth 21 starts. Underdogs are 5-2-1 vs spread in last eight series games. Last two years, Pac-12 teams are 14-8-1 vs spread when facing a Mountain West squad.

Wyoming has a future NFL QB in Allen (15 college starts); since 2009, they’re 24-11 vs spread as a road underdog. Cowboys’ OL has 87 returning starts- Wyoming is 10-7 vs spread in last 17 non-league games. Since 2012, Iowa is just 10-20 vs spread as a home favorite; they’ve got an OL with 99 returning starts but have a new QB- they play rival Iowa State next. Last four years, Big 14 teams are 12-9 vs spread when playing Mountain West teams. Both teams have eight starters back on defense.

Cal has a new coach, an offensive line with only 25 returning starts and a new QB- tough way to start on the road. Golden Bears are 2-6 vs spread in last eight games as a road underdog- they’re 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten non-league games. Cal has 8 starters back on defense. UNC is 8-4 vs spread in last 12 games as a home favorite; they’ve got a new QB with Trubisky in NFL— their offensive line has 73 returning starts, they’ve got 7 starters back on defense. ACC teams are 6-2 vs spread in last eight games vs Pac-12 squads. .

Boston College opened up +2 at Northern Illinois, now they’re -3. Eagles (-5) beat NIU 17-14 at home in 2015; they outgained Huskies 326-153 that day. Since 2007, Eagles are 5-11 vs spread as a road favorite; they’re 9-5 vs spread in last 14 non-ACC games- they open ACC play with Wake Forest next. NIU is 9-12 vs spread in its last 21 home games; they’re 12-17 vs spread in last 29 non-MAC games. Huskies have an OL with 46 returning starts- their junior QB has started 8 games. BC’s offensive line has 88 returning starts.

Since 2013, Temple is 12-4 vs spread as a road underdog, 10-7 in non-league games. Owls and Notre Dame both have new QB’s this year. Temple also has a new coach- they lost 7 starters on defense- their offensive line has 62 returning starts. ND had 76 returning starts on its OL; under Kelly, they’re 15-18-3 vs spread as a home favorite. Since 2012, Notre Dame is 10-17 vs spread when laying double digits. Irish play Georgia next, could easily be looking ahead to that.

Appalachian State has a senior QB with 36 career starts, an offensive line with 96 career starts- they’re 21-5 the last two years. Since 2013, ASU is 5-4-1 vs spread as a road underdog. Last two years, Sun Belt teams are 8-3 vs spread when facing an SEC opponent. Georgia plays Notre Dame next; they’ve got a soph QB with 12 starts, an OL with 45 starts. Dawgs are 11-19 vs spread in last 30 games as a home favorite- since ’12, they’re 11-13 in non-SEC games. Georgia has 10 starters back on defense.

Kentucky played in its first bowl since 2010 LY; Wildcats are on favored on road here for first time in six years. Wildcats have a senior QB with 9 starts, an OL with 73 returning starts- they’re 9-6 vs spread in last 15 games as a favorite, but just 2-7 vs spread in last nine non-SEC games. Southern Miss’s QB has started only 2 games; their OL has 44 returning starts. Since 2008, Golden Eagles are 5-8 vs spread as home underdogs, 15-21 in non-league games. Over last five years, C-USA teams are 17-12-1 vs spread when playing SEC teams.

Two years ago, Michigan (-4.5) hammered Florida 41-7 in the Citrus Bowl. Wolverines are very young team this year (#127 out of 130 in experience), with only one starter back on defense- their offensive line has 54 returning starts, their junior QB has 12 starts. Florida has a new QB; their OL has 63 returning starts. Gators covered 6 of last 8 games on neutral fields. Michigan is 11-10 as a favorite under Harbaugh; they’re 1-4-2 vs spread in last seven games on neutral fields. Last couple years, SEC teams are 6-2 vs spread when playing Big 14 teams.

South Carolina covered its last four games on neutral fields; they’ve got 16 starters back. Since 2015, they’re 6-9 vs spread as an underdog. Gamecocks’ soph QB started 7 games LY. NC State has 17 starters back; they’re 13-6 vs spread in last 19 non-ACC games. Wolfpack is 16-10 vs spread as a favorite under Doeren; since ’08, they’re 5-3 vs spread on a neutral field. State’s OL has 89 returning starts; their junior QB has 13 starts. Last two years, ACC teams are 14-9 vs spread when facing SEC opponents.

Florida State-Alabama both have sophomore QB’s who played all of last year; since 2012, FSU is 3-1 vs spread as an underdog- they don’t get points very often. Seminoles are 6-7 vs spread in non-ACC games under Fisher. FSU’s offensive line has 57 retuning starts. Since ’09, Alabama is 14-7 vs spread on neutral fields; they’re 12-8-1 vs spread in last 21 games when favored. Crimson Tide has only 11 returning starters and a soph QB who is a suspect passer. Bama’s OL has 67 returning starts.

Virginia Tech has a new QB; their offensive line has 72 returning starts. Since 2011, Hokies are just 19-34-1 vs spread when favored. Since ’10, they’re 13-20-1 in non-ACC games. Tech has only 5 starters back on offense. West Virginia lost 8 starters on defense, 6 on offense; since ’12, they’re 7-12 vs spread outside the Big X. WVU is 7-9 vs spread in last 16 games when getting points. Mountaineers’ OL has only 46 returning starts. ACC-Big X don’t meet often; last five years, ACC teams are 6-5 vs spread when facing a Big X squad.

Pac-12-SEC games don’t happen much; since 2011, SEC teams are 7-3 vs spread when they play a Pac-12 opponent. Under Sumlin, Texas A&M is 12-13 vs spread out of conference; since 2013, they’re 3-7 vs spread when getting points. Aggies lost 6 starters on offense; they’ve got a new QB, their OL has only 48 returning starts. UCLA has 9 starters back on offense; their OL has 85 returning starts. Since 2014, Bruins are 5-10 vs spread as a favorite; they’re 1-8-1 vs spread in last 10 non-conference games.

Prepping for the option can be tough, but Tennessee has had more time, seeing as this is their opener. Vols’ offensive line has 111 returning starts, #2 experienced OL in country. Tennessee is 13-16 vs spread when favored under Jones- they’ve got 7 starters back on both sides of ball. Georgia Tech has 8 starters back on both sides, but has a new QB; Jackets are 9-5 vs spread in last 14 non-league games, 9-11 in last 20 games when getting points. Last two years, ACC teams are 14-9 vs spread when facing SEC opponents.

Armadillosports.com

Alabama vs. Florida State
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

During Nick Saban’s first season of his tenure at Alabama in 2007, the Crimson Tide went down to Jacksonville to face Florida State in a neutral-site game. The Seminoles captured a 21-14 win as 2.5-point favorites thanks to Antone Smith’s five-yard run late in the fourth quarter. The 35 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 44-point total.

FSU quarterback Xavier Lee threw a pair of touchdown passes to DeCody Fagg, a product of Quincy Shanks High School (my hometown), including a 70-yard scoring strike to draw first blood in the third quarter after a scoreless first half. D.J. Hall caught one of two TD passes from Alabama QB John Parker Wilson. Hall was the school’s all-time leading receiver until recently being surpassed by Amari Cooper and his record-setting accomplishments from 2012-14.

Alabama would go on to finish 7-6, beating Colorado in the Independence Bowl. Yes, Saban had to take his first team to Shreveport. Since then, Alabama has posted nine consecutive double-digit win seasons, winning 10 and 11 games just once apiece. That’s right, the Tide has won 12 games or more seven times, winning four national championships in the process.

This 2017 campaign will be the fourth since the College Football Playoff was incorporated. Alabama is the only school to make the CFP three times, winning it in 2015 before losing a heartbreaker in the final seconds during its rematch with Clemson in last year’s finals.

Alabama returns six starters on offense and five on defense from a team that finished 14-1 straight up and 10-4-1 against the spread. Nine of the Tide’s victories came over ranked teams and 13 scalps came by double-digit margins. Only Ole Miss, thanks to a pair of late TDs with one coming after a successful onside kick, lost by fewer than 10 points in a 48-43 setback in Oxford.

Jalen Hurts, the SEC Player of the Year as a true freshman QB, returns with expectations of being better. He obviously wasn’t bad in his debut, rushing for 954 yards and 13 touchdowns with a 5.0 yards-per-carry average. Hurts completed 62.8 percent of his passes for 2,780 yards with a 23/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

However, Hurts was in a throwing slump down the stretch last season. He threw for only 138 yards vs. Florida, 57 vs. Washington and 155 vs. Clemson. Hurts completed only 14-of-32 passes against the Tigers. With a double-digit lead in the second half against the Huskies, Saban and former OC Lane Kiffin clearly didn’t have much confidence in Hurts throwing the ball.

Whatever the case, Hurts is still surrounded by elite talent. Junior Calvin Ridley is probably the nation’s best wide receiver. Ridley had 72 receptions for 769 yards and seven TDs in ’16. WR ArDarius Stewart and TE O.J. Howard, a first-round pick by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, are gone, but Alabama is literally five-deep at the RB position.

Junior Bo Scarbrough was only the team’s third-leading rusher last year, but he’s the best of the bunch and a likely first-round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Scarbrough is a beast running between the tackles, rushing for 812 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 6.5 YPC last year. Junior Damien Harris, a former five-star recruit, rushed for a team-best 1,037 yards and two TDs in ’16, averaging 7.1 YPC. Josh Jacobs (6.7 YPC) rushed for 567 yards and four TDs as a true freshman, but he was listed as ‘questionable’ as of Thursday due to a hamstring issue. Sophomore B.J. Emmons is also in the backfield mix along with true freshman five-star recruit Najee Harris, who left HS early to participate in spring practice.

Alabama’s defense gave up only 13.0 points per game in ’16. This unit is stacked with future NFL players and led by junior safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, a third-team All-American selection last year when he produced 66 tackles, six interceptions, two pick-sixes, one sack, one forced fumble, four tackles for loss and seven passes broken up.

As of Thursday morning, most books had Alabama listed as a seven-point favorite with a total of 49.5. Gamblers could back the Seminoles to win outright for a +240 return (risk $100 to win $240). For first-half wagers, the Tide was favored by four with a total of 24.5 points.

We asked VegasInsider.com handicapper KellyinVegas about her thoughts on this matchup. Kelly said, “Initially I wasn’t a big fan of this game from a betting perspective. The line opened at 7.5 and I had made Alabama a seven-point favorite. I’ve seen the number down to 6.5 at a few spots in Vegas. If this line hits six, I’ll be all over Saban and the Tide. It’s almost always the kiss of death when the public likes the underdog in the primetime game. And that’s exactly what’s happening here.”

During his dynastic stay in Tuscaloosa, Saban has led his team to a 20-6 SU record in neutral-site games, producing a 16-10 spread record. When the Tide has been a single-digit favorite dating back to 2011, it has surprisingly struggled to a 7-10 ATS mark. Meanwhile, during Jimbo Fisher’s tenure at Florida State starting in 2010, he’s led the Seminoles to a 10-3 SU record and a 6-7 ATS ledger in games at a neutral venue. Since 2012, FSU is 4-1 ATS with a pair of outright wins in five games as an underdog. Overall on Fisher’s watch, the ‘Noles are 6-5 ATS with four outright victories in 11 games as underdogs.

FSU finished last year with a 10-3 SU record and an 8-5 ATS mark. The ‘Noles bring back six starters on offense and nine on defense, but they lost their two best players in RB Dalvin Cook and DE DeMarcus Walker. Cook is the school’s all-time leading rusher who carried FSU to a 33-32 Orange Bowl win over Michigan to close his career in his hometown of Miami. Walker had 68 tackles and 16 sacks last season, finishing his career with 28.5 sacks to rank third all-time in school history.

As a redshirt freshman, QB Deondre Francois established himself as the present and the future at the position in Tallahassee. He showed his moxy on the national stage in his debut, rallying FSU from a 28-6 second-quarter deficit to beat Ole Miss by a 45-34 count as a six-point favorite in Orlando. Francois connected on 58.7 percent of his throws for 3,350 yards with a 20/7 TD-INT ratio. Before accounting net yardage for sacks, Francois rushed for 526 yards and five TDs. Not only is he elusive in the pocket, but he’s consistently demonstrated a willingness to stand tall in the pocket and take big hits if it gives his receivers extra time to break open.

Four of FSU’s top six pass catchers are gone, including leading wideout Travis Rudolph. Junior WR Auden Tate and junior Nyqwan Murray are expected to step up and replace Rudolph’s production. Murray had 27 catches for 441 yards and five TDs in ’16, while Tate hauled in 25 receptions for 409 yards and six TDs.

FSU senior starting safety Trey Marshall is suspended for the first half vs. ‘Bama. Marshall recorded 58 tackles, two TFL’s, two QB hurries and four PBU last year. Senior LB Matthew Thomas didn’t practice Monday or Tuesday, and then Fisher didn’t show up for his standard post-practice media scrum Tuesday. Not only that, but the school announced that no FSU players would be available for interviews for the rest of the week.

Media members in Tallahassee had waited for Fisher for an hour before being informed of this information. Corey Clark of the Tallahassee Democrat reported that the Thomas saga “is an eligibility issue.” Although Thomas missed practice once again on Wednesday, word filtered out Wednesday night that his academic issues had been resolved.

Thomas is expected to practice Thursday and will play vs. Alabama. This is huge because he was FSU’s leading tackler in ’16, recording 77 stops, one sack, 10 TFL’s, four QB hurries and two PBU.

After missing most of last season with a knee injury, one of the nation’s premier players is poised to return to the field Saturday night. That would be redshirt sophomore free safety Derwin James, a near-certain first-round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. As a freshman in ’15, James had 91 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 5.5 TFL’s, four PBU, two QB hurries, two forced fumbles and one fumble recovery.

James is joined in the secondary by junior CB Tarvarus McFadden, one of the nation’s top cover corners who garnered first-team All-American honors last season. McFadden produced 20 tackles, eight interceptions, six PBU and three TFL’s.

Saban is a perfect 10-0 in season openers since leaving the Miami Dolphins for Alabama. Even better for our purposes, the Tide is 8-1 ATS in those lid-lifters with the only non-cover coming in a 33-23 win over West Virginia in ’14 as a 25.5-point ‘chalk.’ This is Alabama’s sixth straight season opener at a neutral site, and its average margin of victory has been 25.0 PPG in wins over Michigan (41-14), Va. Tech (35-10), WVU (33-23), Wisconsin (35-17) and Southern Cal (52-6).

Fisher, who worked as an assistant under Saban and helped him win his first national title as his OC at LSU in 2003, is undefeated in seven season openers with the ‘Noles, compiling a 4-2 spread record in the six lined contests. Fishers has produced double-digit win totals six times in his first seven seasons as HC at FSU, posting a 78-17 overall record.

B.E’s Bonus Nuggets

Florida and Michigan are set to tangle Saturday afternoon at Jerry World in Arlington on ABC at 3:30 p.m. Eastern. A few weeks ago, seven UF players were suspended amid a fraud investigation stemming from the use of a school-issued credit card. Five of those seven players didn’t figure to get significant playing time against the Wolverines, but one of the seven was star WR and special-teams ace Antonio Callaway. Although Callaway’s status for Michigan had been iffy all summer after his arrest for a misdemeanor amount of marijuana, his involvement in this fiasco has him out of chances if he makes another bad decision. Michigan had been favored by 2.5 points but after the seven suspensions, the Wolverines were moved to 3.5 or four where the number remained as of early Wednesday. Then more bad news struck Wednesday afternoon when starting RB Jordan Scarlett and redshirt freshman WR Rick Wells were also suspended for the same reasons as the seven others. According to Trey Wallace of TheReadOptional.com, the Gainesville Police Department is now working with UFPD on the same investigation that could reportedly lead to more suspensions. When you tack on true freshman WR James Robinson’s suspension from last week for being caught smoking weed in his dorm room, there are now 10 UF players not making the trip to Dallas. When Scarlett was added to the suspension list, oddsmakers moved Michigan from 3.5 or four to 4.5 or five. The total shifted from 44.5 or 45 down to 43.5. As of Thursday morning, the Gators were +180 on the money line.

UF’s Callaway had 54 receptions for 721 yards and three TDs in ’16, while Scarlett rushed for 889 yards and six TDs while averaging 5.0 YPC. Look for true sophomore Lamical Perine and senior RB Mark Thompson to get the bulk of the carries in Scarlett’s absence. There had been some question about Thompson’s status, as he was also cited for weed use this summer, but he’s reportedly worked his way back into the good graces of the coaching staff and will play. True freshman RB Malik Davis is also going to get playing time, and another freshman in Adarius Lemons may also get some snaps. Junior DE Keivonnis Davis is the other significant loss. He started four games last year (due to injuries) and will be part of the d-line rotation this season. Davis had 27 tackles, five QB hurries, 1.5 sacks and 1.5 TFL’s in ’16. UF hasn’t lost a season opener since falling at Miami in 1987. The Gators will be looking to avenge a 41-7 loss to Michigan in the 2015 Citrus Bowl.

I was at Jerry World when Michigan and Florida met in the 2014 South Region finals of the men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament. It was woodshed treatment for UF in that spot also, as Nik Stauskas went on a 3-point rampage in the Wolverines’ blowout victory. Michigan also beat Florida 41-35 in the 2008 Capital One Bowl and sent UF packing from the Round of 32 in the 1988 NCAA Tournament. In other words, the Gators haven’t had much success against teams from Michigan. (Michigan State beat UF in the finals of the 2000 NCAA Tournament, a bowl game on New Year’s Day in 2000 on a walk-off field goal and the Round of 32 in the 2003 Tourney.)

UF’s Jim McElwain appeared as if he was going to play coy about his starting QB all the way up until kickoff. However, perhaps sensing his team needed a boost following the news about Scarlett on Thursday, McElwain announced that redshirt freshman and former four-star recruit Feleipe Franks will get the starting nod. The Wakulla HS product (20 miles south of Tallahassee) beat out Notre Dame grad transfer Malik Zaire and former starter Luke Del Rio (5-1 record in six career starts), although you could still see Zaire get playing time.

As of Thursday morning, Auburn was listed as a 34-point favorite Saturday vs. Georgia Southern, which has a 7-1 spread record in its last eight games against SEC or ACC foes. The Tigers are an atrocious 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games when favored by 19 points or more.

As of Thursday morning, Georgia was installed as a 14.5-point home favorite vs. Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are 27-5 SU in their last 32 games and they’ve lost by more than 14 points only twice in their last 33 outings (at eventual national runner-up Clemson in 2015 and vs. Miami last season). Meanwhile, UGA has failed to win by more than 14 points in 17 consecutive games. The Bulldogs, who went 0-4 ATS as home favorites and lost outright between the hedges three times in Kirby Smart’s first season, are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as double-digit home ‘chalk.’

Kansas landed a big-time juco recruit in RB Octavius Matthews, who was originally an Auburn commit and was expected to contribute immediately for the Jayhawks. However, Matthews has been forced to retire due to an unspecified heart condition. This is another big loss for KU, which lost senior WR LaQuvionte Gonzalez early this summer when he was dismissed from the program. Gonzalez had 62 catches for 729 yards and three TDs last season. Keep an eye on Kansas WR Daylon Charlot, a four-star recruit who played five games and had two receptions for Alabama as a true freshman in 2015. He sat out last year after transferring and has three years of eligibility with KU. David Beaty is making strides on the recruiting trail, as he already has a pair of commits out of Landry-Walker High School in New Orleans for the ’18 class. WR Devonta Jason is a five-star player who’s ranked the 24th-best player in the nation by Rivals.com. Rivals has four-star DB Corione Harris ranked No. 86 in the country.

Saturday's College Football Best Bets
Vegasinsider.com

The first full Saturday of college football action each year is like Christmas morning to CFB bettors as it begins the months-long grind of tracking scores of 50+ games each Saturday.

If you aren't particularly used to all the action a college football Saturday can bring, I'd suggest breaking down the day into time slots to help with your handicapping. Doing that allows you to focus only on a handful of games every few hours and it helps you avoid over-exposure with your bankroll.

Lessons like that can be especially important during the Week 1 excitement, as bettors have been waiting for these games to kick off for months and with all that time to research, prognosticate, and project, anxiousness could get the better of you.

With that being said, there are definitely some marquee games on the first Saturday of the year in 2017 and they'll be getting the bulk of the attention from bettors and media outlets.

This year we've got Michigan/Florida and Florida State/Alabama headlining the card and I'm sure many of you have already digested numerous opinions on those games.

So instead, I've gone elsewhere for three games I consider some of the best bets on the board on Saturday, and hopefully we can all get through the early part of the first Saturday of the 2017 College Football season with a few more units in our betting bankroll.

Game #1: Kent State vs. Clemson (-39.5); Total 51

Best Bet: Kent State +39.5

The defending National Champions from Clemson begin a new era in 2017 as QB Deshaun Watson has moved onto the NFL, and two straight years in the title game clearly puts the target on their backs. The Tigers still have plenty of talent returning to defend their crown this year, but this is just a brutal spot for them to be trotting out a new starting QB.

Bettors have to be concerned about a potential championship “hangover,” and not to mention the fact that Clemson has a huge game on deck with Auburn the following week. That's definitely not a spot I want to even consider laying that kind of chalk as the Tigers could very well “shut things down” once they get up big and either not have enough to win by 40+, or leave the backdoor open late for a Kent State team that can put up points if given the opportunity.

Game #2: Maryland vs Texas (-18.5); Total 56

Best Bet: Maryland +18.5

It's a new regime in Texas, as former Houston HC Tom Herman gets to hopefully reap the benefits of former HC Charlie Strong's strong recruiting classes at Texas the past few years. Strong could never get the desired results on the field though, and while many believe that Texas is primed to be a significant player in the Big 12 this year, I've got no problem waiting on that thought until the Longhorns can actually prove it to me on the field. They have been perennial under achievers the past few years, and a coaching change doesn't always fix everything.

Meanwhile, Maryland enters 2017 knowing their season is going to be a tough one from start to finish. They've got the worst of it in terms of schedule when Big 10 play begins as they play nearly every single good-to-great team in the conference, and knowing how tough that could end up being, they are viewing this game vs. Texas as one where they could win SU. I wouldn't necessarily go that far, but they'll be more then enough for this Longhorns team to deal with in Week 1 as the Longhorns probably top out with a 14-point victory.

Game #3: UTEP vs Oklahoma (-43); Total 63

Best Bet: UTEP +43

Seeing all these huge double-digit point spreads in Week 1 is commonplace every single year, and typically it's the recreational bettors that prefer to side with the “brand name” schools no matter what the number they are laying. But similar to Clemson on Saturday, Oklahoma has national title hopes in 2017 and are in a bad look-ahead spot with their showdown against Ohio State looming in a week. Although the Buckeyes got the ATS win vs. Indiana on Thursday night, Ohio State was actually losing SU at half and benefitted from some careless Indiana turnovers and miscues on defense to run away and hide in the 2nd half.

Oklahoma won't be losing this game come halftime and they'll have likely already run away from UTEP, but this is simply too many points to pass up. Oklahoma isn't going to show their hand to Ohio State, and with new HC Lincoln Riley (former OC) getting his feet wet as the head man, the Sooners are going to get in and get out with a comfortable victory. How comfortable that victory ends up being remains to be seen, but with a 1-5 ATS run in their last six non-conference games for Oklahoma, I'm betting that this is a few too many points for them to surpass in Week 1 with the 2nd ranked team in the land on deck.

Week 1 NCAAF Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet
Covers.com

Kent State Golden Flashes at No. 5 Clemson Tigers (-39.5, 51)

* Golden Flashes quarterback Nick Holley was forced into action last season after Kent State's first four QB options faltered. Holley, who played quarterback in high school, responded with 16 total touchdowns while throwing for 868 yards and passing for 920 more.

* Clemson was a defensive juggernaut last season, with the base defense - the 4-3 Over - resulting in the Tigers leading the nation in tackles for a loss for the fourth year in a row. The Tigers also limited FBS opponents to a 28.4% conversion rate on third down, the fourth-best mark in Division I.

LINE HISTORY: The defending champs my have lost Deshaun Watson, but that hasn't stopped the public from backing the Tigers. Oddsmakers opened Clemson at -38.5 and they were bet up to -40, before being bought back to the current number of -39.5. The total opened at 51.5 and has been bet down a half-point to 51.

TRENDS:

* Kent State is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games on grass.
* Clemson is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games.
* Under is 4-1 in Kent State's last five games vs. ACC opponents.
* Under is 6-0 in Clemson's last six games in September.

Akron Zips at No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions (-30.5, 66)

* Akron's offense will receive a boost with the return of senior quarterback Thomas Woodson (2,079 yards, 18 touchdowns, six interceptions), who was limited to seven games due to injury but is now 100 percent. The Zips' defense allowed 6.1 yards per play, good four 94th in Division I.

* Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley (3,614 yards, 28 passing TDs, nine interceptions, seven rushing TDs), was responsible for 13 TDs in the Nittany Lions' last three games of 2016. A much-improved offensive line was a major catalyst, limiting foes to 1.7 sacks per game after giving up three per contest a season earlier.

LINE HISTORY: Penn State opened as high as -35 for this matchup at some books, but bettors brought that number down almost immediately. The line has moved 4.5-points to the current number of Penn State -30.5. The total on the other hand has gone up significantly, moving 2.5-points from the opening number of 63.5 to the current number of 66.

TRENDS:

* Akron is 1-4 in its last five meetings.
* Penn State is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Akron's last four non-conference games.
* Over is 5-0 in Penn State's last five games in September.

Maryland Terrapins at No. 23 Texas Longhorns (-19, 56)

* The Terrapins have had a quarterback hold the starting job for an entire season just twice in the past 13 seasons. Last year's QB see-saw led to inconsistent results through the air, with Maryland ranked 77th in yards per completion (12.0), 83rd in QB rating (123.0) and 114th in third-down conversion rate (32.5%).

* The Longhorns' defense will need to see dramatic improvements after struggling in 2016. Last year's group underachieved, leading to Texas giving up 23 first downs per game (89th-best in Division I) and allowing a collective opposing passer rating of 138.1 (85th).

LINE HISTORY: The Longhorns opened as 17-point favorites for their matchup with the Terrapins and bettors are backing head coach Tom Herman in his first game as head football coach, moving the line to Texas -19. The total has not moved off the opening number of 56.

TRENDS:

* Maryland is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games.
* Texas is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. Big Ten opponents.
* Under is 4-1-1 in Maryland's last six non-conference games.
* Under is 7-0 in Texas' last seven games overall.

UTEP Miners at No. 7 Oklahoma Sooners (-43, 63)

* A bigger contribution from star quarterback Ryan Metz is at the top of the Miners' agenda in 2016. Metz (64.7% completion rate, 1,375 yards, 14 touchdowns, four interceptions) fared well overall, but his performance couldn't prevent UTEP from finishing in the Conference USA basement in attempts (327), completions (195) and total passing yards (2,204).

* The Sooners racked up 7.4 yards per offensive play in 2016; that number didn't waver depending on the location, with Oklahoma gaining 7.4 yards per play at home and 7.3 on the road. But the Sooners allowed opponents to convert 42.6% of their third downs in FBS action last season - ranking them 85th nationally.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Sooners as massive 45 point favorites at some books, but bettors are a little weary with a number so big and it being the first game with no Bob Stoops, moving the line to Sooners -43. The total is up a half-point from the opening number of 62.5 to 63.

TRENDS:

* UTEP is 4-12 in its last 16 games vs. Big 12 opponents.
* Oklahoma is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games.
* Over is 5-2 in UTEP's last seven games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in Oklahoma's last five home games.

No. 17 Florida Gators vs. No. 8 Michigan Wolverines (-4.5, 43)

* The Wolverines led Division I in fewest yards allowed per game last season (216.7), but lost Taco Charlton, Ryan Glasgow and Chris Wormley, who combined for 19 1/2 sacks and 31 1/2 tackles for loss. The loss of Jake Butt, Amara Darboh and Jehu Chesson forces Michigan to account for 138 receptions, 1,908 yards and 13 touchdowns.

* A handful of 2016 starters have departed a Florida defense that limited opponents to a Division I-best 92.9 passer rating. Struggles on the other side of the football persisted, with the Gators finishing 79th in the nation in passing yards per game (215.8 ).

LINE HISTORY: This line has seen plenty of action. The Wolverines opened as about a 3-point favorite, were bet as high low as -2 and as high as -5.5. They are currently 4.5-point favorites. The total hit the board at 45 and has been bet down 2-points to the current number of 43.

TRENDS:

* Florida is 1-7 ATS in its last eight non-conference games.
* Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last five games in September.
* Under is 4-0 in Florida's last four non-conference games.
* Over is 5-0 in Michigan's last five non-conference games.

Western Michigan Broncos at No. 4 USC Trojans (-26.5, 58 )

* The Broncos ranked 11th in the NCAA in points per game (39.3), largely in the strength of two players - quarterback Zach Terrell and receiver Corey Davis - who have moved on. Look for an even greater emphasis on a run game that produced nearly 219 yards per game in 2016.

* The Trojans' success hinges on quarterback Sam Darnold, who had a 67.2% completion rate, more than 3,000 passing yards, 31 TDs and just nine interceptions. The USC rushing game was also robust in 2016, averaging 5.1 yards per carry - well ahead of the 4.5 YPC mark it posted in 2015.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Trojans as about 26-point favorites for their opener and bettors backed USC up to -27.5. But since then, the number has come back down to USC -26.5. Most books opened the total around 58, which is where the number currently sits.

TRENDS:

* Western Michigan is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games in September.
* USC is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Western Michigan's last five games on grass.
* Under is 5-1 in USC's last six home games.

Appalachian State Mountaineers at No. 15 Georgia Bulldogs (-14.5, 45.5)

* The Mountaineers boasted a rushing attack that finished eighth in Division I in rushing yards per game (256.9) and sixth in yards per attempt (5.9). The centerpiece of that vaunted ground assault, junior Jalin Moore, will look to build upon his 1,402-yard, 10-touchdown showing from last year.

* The Bulldogs have a clear strength coming into the 2017 season, and that's on defending the run. Georgia has nine returning linemen on a defense that was borderline-elite in 2016, ranking in the top 30 in both rushing and passing S & P+.

LINE HISTORY: Early on bettors were on the always upset-minded Mountaineers, moving the line from +14.5 all the way down to +12. But since then, bettors have bought back the Bulldogs, with the current number at Georgia -14.5.

TRENDS:

* Appalachian State is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games.
* Georgia is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.
* Under is 6-1 in Appalachian State's last six games on grass.
* Over is 8-1 in Georgia's last nine games vs. Sun Belt opponents.

Georgia Southern Eagles at No. 12 Auburn Tigers (-34, 59.5)

* The Eagles were one of the most run-heavy teams in the nation last season (67.1% rush rate) but only ranked 35th in rushing yards per game (207.0). Redshirt freshman QB Shai Werts will look to improve upon Georgia Southern's 119.1 proficiency rating from a year ago.

* Auburn averaged seven yards per play and 513 yards per game from Sept. 24 to Nov. 5 of last season, while limiting opponents to 4.8 yards per play and 334 yards per contest in that span. Returning running back Kamryn Pettway amassed 1,224 yards on 5.9 YPC and seven rushing scores despite playing just nine games.

LINE HISTORY: The Tigers hit the board as 35-point favorites and have been bet as low as -33.5 at some places. The total on the other hand, has seen plenty of action. Since opening at 53, it has sky-rocketed up six and a half points to the current number of 59.5.

TRENDS:

* Georgia Southern is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. SEC opponents.
* Auburn is 5-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games.
* Over is 4-1 in Georgia Southern's last five non-conference games.
* Under is 5-0 in Auburn's last five overall.

No. 16 Louisville Cardinals at Purdue Boilermakers (+25, 68)

* Returning QB Lamar Jackson racked up more than 5,100 combined yards while throwing for 30 touchdowns and rushing for 21 more in 2016. Louisville was a top-10 offensive unit in yards per game (532.7), fourth-down conversion rate (68.8%), yards per rush (6.0) and yards per play (6.9).

* Purdue surrendered an obscene 39.5 points per game in 2016 while allowing opponents to convert more than 49 percent of their third-down situations. The Boilermakers threw the ball nearly 63 percent of the time but averaged just under 300 yards per game, barely inside the top 20 nationally.

LINE HISTORY: The Cardinals opened as high as -27 at some shops, but it has been the Boilermakers seeing most of the action. The number got as low as Louisville -24, before getting bought back to the current number of -25. The total hit board at 68.5 and just bounced around that number, currently at 68.

TRENDS:

* Louisville is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.
* Purdue is 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games.
* Over is 4-0 in Louisville's last four games in September.
* Over is 4-1 in Purdue's last five games overall.

No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 3 Florida State Seminoles (+7, 49.5)

* Quarterback Deandre Francois (3,350 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, seven interceptions) will need more help this season from an offensive line that allowed a 7.88% sack rate. The Seminoles were flagged an average of 7.8 times for 74 yards per game in 2016, ranking them among the worst offenders in the nation.

* The Crimson Tide led the nation in fewest yards per carry allowed (2.0) and fewest yards per game against (63.9). The offense will see six returning starters, including standout quarterback Jalen Hurts (2,780 yards, 23 passing TDs, 13 rushing TDs) and leading rusher Damien Harris (1,040 yards, 7.2 YPC).

LINE HISTORY: The Crimson Tide opened favored by a converted touchdown at most book, with the number bouncing back-and-forth between -7 and -7.5. It is currently 'Bama -7. The total opened at 49 and has moved up a half-point to 49.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Alabama is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games in Week 1.
* Florida State is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games.
* Over is 4-0-1 in Alabama's last five vs. ACC opponents.
* Over is 6-0 in Florida State's last six neutral site games.

No. 13 LSU Tigers vs. BYU Cougars at (+14.5, 47)

* Hot on the heels of a terrific ground effort in 2016, the Cougars picked up where they left off, piling up 171 rushing yards in last week's 20-6 drubbing of Portland State. BYU ranked second in the nation last year in red-zone conversion rate (95.9%), and led Division I in turnovers forced per game (2.5).

* The Tigers' ground game is in great hands with junior running back Derrius Guice (1,387 yards, 15 touchdowns, 7.2 YPC). Senior Danny Etling (2,123 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, five interceptions) will get first crack at elevating an LSU passing game that finished 93rd in the nation in yards per contest (195.8 ).

LINE HISTORY: The Ed Orgeron era at LSU beings and most bettors have liked the change. The Tigers opened at -13.5 and were bet as high as -16, before getting bet back to the current number of -14.5. The total hit the board at 47.5 and has bounced back-and-forth between that and 47, where it currently sits.

No. 22 West Virginia Mountaineers vs. No. 21 Virginia Tech Hokies (-4, 51.5)

* The Mountaineers called a run on nearly 57 percent of their plays last season, but that should shrink with the addition of former Florida Gators quarterback Will Grier. That said, West Virginia will still lean on a run game that ranked 25th in the nation in yards per game (227.8 ) and 28th in yards per carry (5.2).

* The Hokies boasted a top-30 scoring offense last season (34.9 points per game) but are replacing quarterback Jerod Evans (3,552 passing yards, 846 rushing yards, 41 total TDs) with redshirt freshman Josh Jackson. The Hokies allowed foes to convert on third down just 28.6 percent of the time (fifth-best nationally).

LINE HISTORY: Oddmakers think this will be one of the closest games this weekend opening with the Hokies favored by a field goal. They have since been bet up one point to the current number of Virginia Tech -4. The under has seen some action here, with the number hitting the board around 54.5, it is currently down to 51.5.

TRENDS:

* West Virginia is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral site games.
* Virginia Tech is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in West Virginia's last five neutral site games.
* Over is 13-3 in Virginia Tech's last 16 non-conference games.

NCAAF Week 1 Picks and Predictions
By: Andrew Caley
Covers.com

There are no better traditions in sport than those in college football.

Tailgating, raucous student sections, Ralphie’s run at Colorado, touching Howard’s rock at Clemson, “The Best Damn Band in the Land” at Ohio State. College football is back. Breathe it in. Feels pretty incredible, right?

Here at Covers we hope to add to the long list of college football traditions by presenting you "The Triple Option": a weekly column bringing you picks, Heisman Trophy odds updates and some great tailgate food for you to try out this season.

So, sit back, enjoy some great eats and let’s puff up that college football bankroll.

As stated earlier, college football is a sport of traditions and one that seems to come up every year is Alabama being at, or near the top of the AP preseason poll. The Crimson Tide are No. 1 for the second straight year and have been in the Top 5 for nine consecutive seasons. So that's a Top 5 preseason ranking in nine of the 11 years Nick Saban has been the head football coach.

Alabama is 10-0 straight up and 8-1 against the spread (they played FCS team Western Carolina and no line was posted) in Week 1 since Saban has taken over the program, facing an average chalk of 18-points per game.

The Crimson Tide score 41.2 points per game and win by an average margin of 29.2 points in those season openers (the Over is 6-1-2 in those games).

These results aren’t coming against your usual Week 1 FCS cupcakes or small-conference pushovers. Seven of those opponents come from Power 5 conferences, including USC, Wisconsin, Michigan and Virginia Tech. So, long story short, Bama kicks the crap out of everyone in Week 1.

This season will have a different wrinkle, as the Tide play No. 3 ranked Florida State in Week 1. Jimbo Fisher has a deep and talented squad, especially on defense. However, the Seminoles have to replace stud running back Dalvin Cook and are expected to be without senior linebacker and leading tackler from last season, Matthew Thomas. Plus, the Noles will have their hands full with sophomore quarterback and Heisman candidate Jalen Hurts.

Hurts was outstanding as a true freshman last year, coming within seconds of leading Bama to its fifth national title in the Saban era, passing for 2,780 yards and 23 touchdowns, while adding 954 yards and 13 scores on the ground.

Expect Saban to have Hurts and his greatly balanced Tide team focused early, with their sights set on returning to the national championship game after coming painfully close last season.

Pick: Alabama -7

Akron Zips at Penn State Nittany Lions (-30.5)

Penn State surprised everyone by winning the Big Ten last season and even though the Nittany Lions beat Ohio State en route to the conference title, it was the Buckeyes in the College Football Playoff, not PSU.

Penn State hopes to prove last season was no fluke and has all the tools to dominate again this year, highlighted by the return of the tremendous backfield duo of running back Saquon Barkley and quarterback Trace McSorley.

McSorley threw for 3,614 yards with 29 touchdowns and just eight interceptions, but it's Barkley who drives this offense, rushing for 1,496 yards and 18 scores. And that’s too bad for the Zips.

Akron was one of the worst teams against the run last season, allowing 224.7 rushing yards per game. The Zips were also not a great bet at 4-8 ATS, while Penn State was one of the best at 10-3-1 ATS.

Look for Penn State to make its presence felt around the nation and open the season strong.

Pick: Penn State -30.5

Appalachian State Mountaineers at Georgia Bulldogs (-14, 45.5)

Oh, Appalachian State. Ever since it upset Michigan back in 2007, it's been everyone’s favorite upset pick. Heck, the Mountaineers almost upset the Volunteers in Tennessee last season, falling 20-13 in OT as 21.5-point underdogs.

This year, the Mountaineers head to Athens to take on Georgia, but for those hoping for another upset I think they’ll have to look elsewhere. In fact, this line looks like it was set in anticipation of lots of money coming in with another upset in mind.

First of all, App State relies heavily on the run. Georgia was excellent against the run in the SEC last season and returns 10 starters on defense that ranked 16th nationally in total yards allowed.

Additionally, UGA's backfield is healthy. With Jacob Eason under center and Nick Chubb carrying the ball, the Bulldogs should have a balanced offense.

Kirby Smart will have his veteran team focused starting his second year after going 8-5 SU last season, in which they lost three games by a combined five points. This won’t be close.

Pick: Georgia -14

Heisman Odds Watch

To no one’s surprise I’m sure, the three favorites for this year’s Heisman Trophy heading into the season are all quarterbacks. According to the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, USC’s Sam Darnold leads the way at 9/1 odds followed by Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield and last year’s winner Lamar Jackson at 10/1.

However, if you’re looking for a little more value down the board, some guys who could have great seasons are players we highlighted earlier: Penn State’s Barkley at 15/1, Alabama’s Hurts at 20/1 and Georgia’s Nick Cubb at 30/1. All of which are all primed to excel.

A really intriguing outlier is Washington State’s signal caller Luke Falk. The senior quarterback has 76 touchdowns to just 19 interceptions with 9,021 yards passing in his last two seasons. He’s currently priced at 40/1.