College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, September 30th, 2017

College Football Week 5

Michigan State won three of last four games with Iowa; underdogs are 6-2 vs spread in last eight series games. Hawkeyes won 19-16/15-13 in last two visits to East Lansing, but ran ball for only 52-23 yards in last two games vs MSU. Spartans are -6 in turnovers this year; since 2012, they’re 14-20 as a home favorite, but 2-0 this season. Iowa was outgained 579-273 in LW’s 21-19 loss to Penn State, when PSU scored winning TD in last 0:10. Hawkeyes are 5-3 in last eight games as a road dog- they won only road game 44-41 in OT at Iowa State.

Florida State is 0-2 for first time since 1989; they’ve got a true freshman QB who was 22-39/278 passing in his first college start, a 27-21 loss to NC State, but he also fumbled on 2-yard line. Seminoles won last five games with Wake Forest, though Deacons covered last two meetings- this is lowest series spread since 2009. Wake Forest is 4-0 after a 20-19 win at Appalachian State, when ASU threw for 372 yards; Deacons are 7-4 as a home underdog under Clawson. FSU is 6-6 as a road favorite the last three years- they’re 11-13 as an ACC road favorite under Fisher.

Navy beat Tulsa 44-21/42-40 last two years, running ball for 460-390 yards; underdogs are 3-1 vs spread in last four series games. Middies are 3-0 this season, scoring 35.7 ppg; they ran the ball for 569 yards LW, but have completed only 9-25 passes in three games- past couple Navy teams threw the ball better. Tulsa lost last two games 54-51/16-13; they’ve allowed average of 294.5 rushing yards/game, bad news when facing Navy. Golden Hurricane is 1-5 as a home underdog the last 2+ years. Tulsa allowed 596 yards, 42 points in the one game they won!!!

Colorado gave up 254 rushing yards in 37-10 (+11) home loss to Washington LW; Buffs now head out on road for first time- they’re 7-2 vs spread in last nine games as home underdogs. Colorado (-13) beat UCLA 20-10 LY, snapping 5-game skid vs Bruins; Buffaloes lost last three visits to Pasadena, by 4-22-39 points. Underdogs covered last four series games. UCLA has already allowed 44+ points in three games; they allowed 48-58 points in losing last two weeks, at Memphis/Stanford- they were down 44-10 in one of their wins, vs Texas A&M.

South Carolina needed a great catch by a WR to nudge La Tech 17-16 on late FG LW; they’re 3-1 now, and are 4-7 vs spread as a road underdog last 2+ years, winning SU at Mizzou in first true road game this year. Texas A&M scored 44+ points in three of its four games, but blew 44-10 lead in loss at UCLA- they’re 3-0 since then. Aggies are 3-0 vs South Carolina in SEC play, but Gameecocks covered last two meetings, losing by 11-7 points. Aggies ran ball for 321-216 yards in last two meetings. SEC home teams are 3-5 vs spread in conference games.

Florida snuck by its last two games, beating Tennessee/Kentucky right at end; Gators still have a lot of players suspended with off-field issues. Florida is 19-1 in its last 20 games vs Vanderbilt, winning last three by 24-2-7 points; underdogs are 5-1 vs spread in last six series games. Gators won their last 10 visits to Nashville, covering four of last five. Florida is 9-17 in last 26 games as a home favorite. Vandy got pounded 59-0 LW by Alabama; first downs in game were 38-3. Last 5+ years, Commodores are 14-9 vs spread as a home favorite.

Tennessee (-27) snuck by UMass 17-13 last week, after losing to Florida on last play the week before; the natives are restless. Vols outgained UMass by only 38 yards (319-281); they’re 4-2 vs spread as home dogs under Jones. Georgia is 4-0 wth a 20-19 win at Notre Dame; Dawgs have a freshman QB, which is often dicey on road. Georgia is 12-9 in last 21 games as a road favorite, 2-1 under Smart. Tennessee beat Georgia 34-31/38-31 last two years, after Dawgs had gone 11-4 in previous 15 series games. Georgia won two of last three visits to Knoxville.

LSU/Georgia/Auburn is tough gauntlet for Mississippi State team that got smoked between the hedges LW, after pounding LSU 37-7 at home. MSU is 3-2 in its last five games with Auburn; Tigers ran ball for 220.3 ypg in last three meetings- underdogs covered three of last four. State is 9-4 in last 13 games as a road underdog, 0-1 this year; they threw for only 103 yards LW at Georgia. Hard to tell much about Auburn; they beat three stiffs but were outgained 281-117 in a 14-6 loss at Clemson, their only decent opponent so far. Tigers are 6-13 in last 19 games as a home favorite.

North Carolina scored 44.7 ppg in winning last three games with Georgia Tech by 5-7-28 points; UNC gained 636 yards in LY’s game, 353 in the air. Tech ran ball for 300+ yards in 8 of last 9 series games. Tar Heels are 1-3 this year with home losses to Cal/Duke; they gave up 312 yards on ground at Louisville. Tech has already run ball for 535-436 yards this year in games vs Tennessee (L41-42), Pitt (W35-17); since 2012, Yellow Jackets are 19-13-1 as home favorites. Under Fedora, Carolina is 15-8-1 vs spread when coming off a loss.

Underdogs covered five of last six Clemson-Virginia Tech games; Tigers (-10.5) beat Tech 42-35 in LY’s meeting, first series game since 2012. Clemson lost two of last three trips to Blacksburg, with last visit here in 2011. 4-0 Clemson won its only road game 47-21 at Louisville couple of weeks ago, outgaining Cardinals 613-433; over last 3+ years, Tigers are 5-9 when laying points on road. Hokies are 4-0 with a neutral field win over West Virginia their only decent win; over last decade, Tech is 4-3 vs spread when getting points at home.

Dogs covered four of last five Air Force-New Mexico games; Lobos won last two, 45-40/47-35. New Mexico ran ball for 367+ yards in last five series games. Falcons lost last two visits here, by 47-35/45-37 scores. Air Force lost last two games, to Michigan/San Diego State; they were blanking Aztecs 9-0 in a monsoon LW until lightning delayed game and Aztecs threw ball well after delay when rain stopped. Lobos are 11-17 vs spread in last 28 home games; underdogs covered all three of their lined games this year.

Oklahoma State won/covered first three games this year, then TCU came to Stillwater and beat Cowboys 44-31 LW; Cowboys are 5-8-1 vs spread in last 14 games as a road favorite. Texas Tech scored 79 points in wins over ASU/Houston last two games; Red Raiders are 5-4 as home underdogs under Kingsbury. OSU won its last eight games with Tech; road teams covered last four, as Cowboys scored 55.5 ppg in winning/covering their last four visits to Lubbock. This game got bet down from 13.5 to 9.5; total is 82 or 83. Losing side scored 34+ in last four series games.

Memphis is 3-0 despite giving up 29 points to UL-Monroe, 31 to I-AA So Illinois; UCLA threw for 463 yards in 48-45 Memphis win two weeks ago. This is Tigers’ first road game; they’re 5-2-1 in last eight games as a road underdog. Central Florida scored 99 points in winning its first two games; they crushed Maryland LW, but Terps were down to their #3 QB. Knights are 4-1 as a home favorite under coach Frost. UCF won its last nine games with Memphis; teams haven’t met since 2013. Tigers are 0-4 vs spread in last four trips to Orlando, last of which was in 2011.

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