Week 2 Showdowns
By Sportsbook.ag
FLORIDA GATORS (1-0) at MIAMI HURRICANES (1-0)
Sportsbook.ag & Total: Florida -3.5 & 48
Opening Line & Total: Gators -3.5 (-105) & 48
No. 12 Florida and Miami will battle for a claim to state supremacy when the two teams clash on Saturday at noon at Sun Life Stadium. These two schools haven’t met since 2008 when a heavily favored Florida squad steamrolled Miami 26-3, but failed to cover the 24-point spread. Before that meeting, the Hurricanes had won six straight SU over the Gators. Both of these teams opened their seasons with easy SU victories against cupcake opponents, but they didn’t cover the lofty spreads. Miami, a 31-point week-one favorite, beat Florida Atlantic 34-6 while Florida, a 23-point favorite, won 24-6 over Toledo. Last season, the Hurricanes went an impressive 9-3 ATS but all three of those ATS losses were against non-conference foes. Miami was an impressive 5-1 ATS at home, however. Florida went 7-6 ATS last year while covering 4-of-6 times on the road. Its biggest weakness, like Miami, was against non-conference opponents, going 1-4 ATS.
The Gators’ season-opening win against Toledo was a complete one, led in the air by an efficient performance from junior QB Jeff Driskel, who completed 17-of-22 passes (77%) for 153 yards with a touchdown. Senior WR Trey Burton led the receiving corps with five receptions for 69 yards. On the ground, junior RB Mack Brown filled in for starting RB Matt Jones (viral infection) by running for two touchdowns as part of his 112 yards on 25 carries. Brown had a total of 25 carries for 102 yards all of last season, and will likely get fewer carries than Jones, who is probable to play this week. The defense looked equally dominant against the Rockets, giving up just two field goals. Junior CB Cordy Riggs led the team with six tackles (five solo) while the secondary limited Toledo to just 17-of-38 passing for 155 yards (4.1 YPA). Even freshman CB Vernon Hargreaves III excited with an interception, showing the Gators defense may have weapons for years to come. They will some big additions to their defense on Saturday with the return of star LB Antonio Morrison, starting CB Loucheiz Purifoy and DT Darious Cummings, who all served a one-game suspension last week for off-field issues.
The Hurricanes put up a whopping 503 yards in last week's win over FAU, 303 on the ground and 200 through the air. Star sophomore RB Duke Johnson stole the show with 186 yards on 19 carries, including a 53-yard touchdown. He also caught a pass for 38 more yards, and did all of this despite missing most of the second half with a head injury. He is expected to start on Saturday though. This comes one year removed from the 5-foot-9 stud posting 10 touchdowns and 6.8 yards per carry. In the air, senior QB Stephen Morris underwhelmed however, completing just 15-of-27 passes for just 160 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. The defense held FAU to 117 passing yards on 16-of-32 attempts. FAU ran 43 times for 133 yards, while the Miami defensive line also had five sacks and recovered a fumble. However, Miami did have some blemishes, converting 4-of-14 third downs, committing eight penalties for 67 yards and losing the time of possession by a wide margin, 33:18 to 26:42.
SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (1-0) at GEORGIA BULLDOGS (0-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Georgia -3.5 & 56.5
Opening Line & Total: Bulldogs -3 (-105) & 56.5
After a narrow three-point loss at Clemson, No. 11 Georgia continues its difficult start to the season when it hosts another top-10 team, No. 6 South Carolina, on Saturday afternoon. Though star DE Jadaveon Clowney was relatively quiet in the season opener, his Gamecocks still came away with a 27-10 romp of North Carolina. The favored Bulldogs meanwhile opened their season with a 38-35 loss to the Tigers, who are now ranked fourth in the nation. South Carolina has owned this rivalry recently, going 3-0 SU and ATS in the past three meetings, including a 35-7 crushing last year and a 45-42 win in Athens in 2011. In the past 10 meetings at Sanford Stadium, Georgia is 6-4 SU, but just 4-6 ATS. Since 1992, the Gamecocks are just 8-13 SU in this series, but 12-7-2 ATS (63%), including a 9-2-2 ATS mark (82%) in their past 13 meetings with the Bulldogs. Last year, Georgia went 6-3 ATS against SEC opponents and 8-6 overall ATS for the second consecutive year. South Carolina was also an impressive 8-5 ATS last year (5-3 ATS in the SEC) and is now 30-24 ATS (56%) since 2009.
Georgia’s loss wasn’t for a lack of offense as sophomore running back Todd Gurley continued to tear his way through the SEC with 154 yards on 12 carries with two touchdowns. That included a 75-yard run. Last year he burst onto the scene averaging 6.2 yards per carry for 1,385 yards and 17 touchdowns, but was bottled up in the blowout loss at South Carolina, gaining just 39 yards on 13 carries. Senior QB Aaron Murray also had a dreadful game in Columbia last year, completing 11-of-31 passes (36%) for 109 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. However, Murray looked sharp last week, racking up 323 yards in the air on 20-of-29 passing (69%), but didn’t find the end zone and threw one pick. This was despite missing top WR Malcolm Mitchell for the majority of the game after he injured his knee while celebrating the Bulldogs' first touchdown in the first quarter. Mitchell, who led Georgia with 52 receiving yards in last year's loss to the Gamecocks, was diagnosed with a torn ACL and is out for the season. Georgia’s main issues were with its revamped defense though, as it was unable to stop Clemson on the air or on the ground. The Tigers picked up three passing touchdowns on 270 yards and 197 yards on the ground as Tajh Boyd found the end zone a combined five times. The Georgia defense allowed more than 35 points just once all of last season, but lost a bunch of key players to the NFL, and those absences really showed.
South Carolina’s defense was great on all fronts in the opener. The defensive backfield limited North Carolina QB Bryn Renner to just 194 yards on 43 attempts (4.5 YPA) while the front seven kept the Tar Heels to 2.8 yards per carry and no touchdowns. Though the presumptive No. 1 overall pick in next year's NFL draft Clowney had just three tackles, the Gamecocks finished with three sacks for 30 yards while forcing one fumble. On offense, quarterback Connor Shaw was efficient, completing 11-of-20 passes for 149 yards and a touchdown. But he was even better in last year's romp of Georgia, throwing for 162 yards and 2 TD on just 10 pass attempts, plus adding another 78 yards and a touchdown on the ground as part of his team's 230 rushing yards. Sophomore WR Shaq Roland showed his big-play ability last week with a 65-yard touchdown catch just 1:19 into the game, and RB Mike Davis kept the unit going all day though with 12 carries for 115 yards (9.6 YPC), including a 75-yard dash to cap the scoring midway through the third quarter. Sophomore RB Brandon Wilds also ran well with 64 yards on 12 carries (5.3 YPC).
NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (1-0) at MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (1-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Michigan -4.5 & 50
Opening Line & Total: Wolverines -3.5 (-115) & 50.5
No. 17 Michigan seeks payback on Saturday night when it hosts No. 14 Notre Dame. These two schools have provided college football fans with some incredible games over the years, but this series will be put on hold after Saturday’s battle in Ann Arbor. Last season, these two teams played an ugly game that the Fighting Irish were able to win 13-6. The Notre Dame defense was huge in that game, forcing six Wolverines turnovers. However, Michigan still leads the all-time series with a record of 23-16-1, including 5-2 (SU and ATS) in the past seven meetings. After last season’s national title appearance, the Fighting Irish were expected to once again be contenders in large part to sophomore quarterback Everett Golson. However, Golson was kicked off the team for academics, putting Tommy Rees was back at the helm for Notre Dame. In week one, Rees threw for 346 yards and three touchdowns in a 28-6 win over Temple. The victory moved Rees’ career record to 14-4 as a starter, and for a week, showed that the Fighting Irish may not miss Golson at all. While Denard Robinson was the stud quarterback for most of his career at Michigan, it was Devin Gardner who was taking the snaps at the end of the year. While Rees appeared to be in mid-season form in week one, Gardner had both positives as well as some negatives. In the Wolverines' 59-9 victory over Central Michigan, Gardner compiled 214 total yards and three touchdowns, but also threw two interceptions. Like Robinson, Gardner is an exceptional athlete that can beat you with both the pass and run. Both teams have very good defenses, so the quarterback that plays the best may go a long way in determining which side is able to get a victory in this bitter rivalry. Although Notre Dame is 15-5 ATS (75%) as a road underdog of seven points or less since 1992, home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points coming off a 35-point win like Michigan are 65-30 ATS (68%) in the past 10 seasons.
In the win over the Wolverines last year, Notre Dame’s offense also struggled, gaining only 239 yards from scrimmage. In that game, Rees completed 8-of-11 passes for 115 yards (10.5 YPA). One of the biggest reasons for Rees’ success last week was the performance by receivers TJ Jones (6 catches, 138 yards) and DaVaris Daniels (69 receiving yards, two touchdowns). The pair did damage in both the intermediate passing game, as well as attacking down the field. With the ground game gaining 188 yards against Temple, the Fighting Irish have a balanced offensive attack that is capable of moving the ball in any way. Add in their stingy defense, and you have a complete team that is going to be tough to beat. While he had only one assisted tackle against the Owls, senior DT Louis Nix III is an absolute monster on the defensive line. Weighing in at 357 pounds, Nix forces teams to double-team him, allowing linebackers to pursue. He was a huge key to the success of Manti Te'o last year. ILB Dan Fox appears to be filling in the role of Te'o nicely, getting 10 tackles (5 solo, 5 assist) against Temple. However, the kicking game really struggled against last week, as both Nick Tausch and Kyle Brindza missed their lone field goal attempt. If this game comes down to the play of the special teams, then the Wolverines may be in very good shape.
In their victory in week one, Michigan’s special teams got the season started with a blocked punt that was returned for a touchdown by Joe Reynolds. The Wolverines under Brady Hoke have become much more aggressive on special teams, and they will look to continue that success against the Fighting Irish. With Gardner being inconsistent throwing the ball against Central Michigan, look for Michigan to really establish the ground game. The Wolverines were able to rush for 242 yards, led by freshman Derrick Green (11 rush, 58 yds, 1 TD) and senior Fitzgerald Toussaint (14 rush, 57 yards, 2 TD). Toussaint rushed for 58 yards on 13 carries (4.5 YPC) in last year's loss at Notre Dame. Michigan's ability to run the football could open up opportunities for Gardner to go deep to playmaking WR Jeremy Gallon, who caught four passes for 47 yards and a touchdown last week. On defense, the Wolverines have a playmaker in junior cornerback Raymon Taylor. Against Central Michigan, Taylor had an interception, returning it for 54 yards, to go with four tackles (2 solo, 2 assist). He will be tasked with stopping TJ Jones, in what could be one of the most exciting matchups in the game. Senior LB Cameron Gordon was all over the field against the Chippewas, compiling two sacks and four tackles. If he is able to wreak havoc and force Rees to run around, the Wolverines will be in great shape. With the history of these two teams and the animosity due to the fact that Notre Dame has ended the series, expect the two teams to come out with a lot of intensity.
College Football Betting Odds and Preview Capsules
Atssportsline.com
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Florida Gators (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) at Miami-Florida Hurricanes (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Intangibles:
These state rivals have not met since 2008
Miami RB Duke Johnson ran for 186 yards last week
Miami has not faced an SEC team since 2008
Keys to Success: The Gators are coming off a 24-6 win over Toledo, but they didn't cover the 23.5. Mack Brown led a rushing attack that totaled 262 yards. Running back Matt Jones should add to this excellent ground game. Miami pounded Florida Atlantic, 34-6, giving 31 as Johnson ran for 186 yards despite sitting out most of the second half. He had a minor head injury but is expected to play. Florida's defense allowed just 205 total yards in their opener so expect the Hurricanes to lean on quarterback Stephen Morris, who had two potential touchdown passes dropped last week. Florida is 9-1-1 ATS last 11 in September. College Lines: Florida is a 3-point betting odds favorite. Total: 49.0
South Carolina Gamecocks (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) at Georgia Bulldogs (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Intangibles:
Georgia could start the season at 0-2 if they lose
Georgia is without leading returning receiver Malcolm Mitchell (knee)
South Carolina allowed just 10 points to high-scoring North Carolina last week
Last matchup: (10/6/12): South Carolina (-1) over Georgia, 35-7
Keys to Success: South Carolina is coming off a very impressive 27-10 win over North Carolina at home last Thursday. They outgained North Carolina, 203-35 in the first quarter. Sophomore running back Mike Davis ran for 115 yards and a touchdown. Steve Spurrier continues with his rotating quarterback system of Dylan Thompson and Connor Shaw. Georgia fell to Clemson, 38-35 last week on the road, giving 1.5. Aaron Murray threw for 323 yards on 20-of-29 passing, but was sacked four times, lost a fumble and was picked off. The Georgia offensive line struggled against Clemson and now they must face DE Jadeveon Clown and the tough Sourth Carolina defensive line. South Carolina is 5-0-1 ATS last 6 in series. College Football Odds: Georgia is a 3-point betting odds favorite. Total: 56.0.
Texas Longhorns (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) at Brigham Young Cougars (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Intangibles:
Texas amassed 715 total yards against New Mexico State last week
Texas is 0-2 lifetime against BYU
BYU middle linebacker Uani Unga (chest) is doubtful.
Last matchup: (9/10/11): Texas (-7.5) over BYU, 17-16
Keys to Success: The Longhorns dominated New Mexico State, 56-7 last week, giving 44.5. Junior quarterback David Ash threw for 343 yards and rushed for 91. He threw four touchdowns but also had two picks. Ash will have a much tougher time against the Cougars' defense. BYU fell at Virginia last week, 19-16, giving 2.5. Sophomore running back ran for 144 yards on 33 carries, but quarterback Taysom Hill struggled (13-of-40 for 175 yards). Unga recorded 10 tackles but may miss this game. They'll need playmaker Kyle Van Noy (22 career sacks) to have a big game. Texas is 7-0 ATS last 7 following a SU loss. NCAA Odds: Texas is a 7-point betting odds favorite. Total: 55.5.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) at Michigan Wolverines (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
Intangibles:
Notre Dame has won at Ann Arbor since 2005.
This will be the last game in this series
Michigan quarterback Devin Gardner combined for 214 yards last week and two touchdowns last week
Last matchup: (9/22/12): Notre Dame (-6) over Michigan 13-6.
Keys to Success: Notre Dame quarterback Tommy Rees passed for 346 yards last week in their 28-6 win over Temple. He faces a Michigan defense that allowed just 144 passing yards to Central Michigan (59-9 win). This is a revenge game for Michigan though this rivalry will end on a nasty note. Head coach Brady Hoke said that Notre Dame was "chickening out" by dropping out of the series as Notre Dame is committed to playing a portion of their games against the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Irish are very good defensively again although they will be tested by Gardner, who is a better passer than last year's quarterback- Denard Robinson. Home team is 5-1 ATS last 6 in series. NCAAF Odds: Michigan is a 4-point betting odds favorite. Total: 51.0.
Washington State (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) at Southern California (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Intangibles:
USC still hasn't named a starting quarterback
Washington State has lost 20 straight games to ranked opponents
USC hasn't lost in this series since 2002
Last matchup: (9/25/10): USC (-22) over Washington State, 50-16.
Keys to Success: For some reason, Southern Cal still has not named a replacement for quarterback Matt Barkley. Cody Kessler and Max Witterk were not sharp in their 30-13 road win over Hawaii, giving 23.5. Washington State lost at Auburn, 31-24 as Connor Halliday threw for 344 yards and a touchdown. USC running back Silas Redd, who was a former star at Penn State, could player after suffering a torn MCL in the spring. Tre Madden rushed for 109 yards against Hawaii last week in Redd's place. The favorite is 6-2 ATS last 8 in series. Football lines: USC is a 15.5-point betting odds favorite. Total: 53.5.
CFB Week Two Notes
By Dave Essler
Miami (OH)-Kentucky: Probably want no part of this game. Kentucky has L'ville next, which is not only a challenge but a rivalry. And the score against WKU was really not indicative of how poorly they played. Penalties galore. Miami got eaten up once Marshall woke up, but they had exactly nine first downs and allowed thirty-four. Should be sloppy game, so perhaps under.
Michigan State-South Florida: Spartans struggled far more with WMU than most thought they would, but glaring stat to me is a net of 116 passing yards. Their defense won this game and it appears it will have to win many more, and they forced four turnovers. And South Florida simply gets abused by McNeese State. I get that McNeese is a great FCS school but 53-21 at home is a bit much. McNeese had the ball for almost 35 minutes, and USF simply could not make a first down. Spartans have Youngstown on deck, so they may continue to play three deep trying to find playmakers. However, little chance of taking USF here. Under, probably.
Oklahoma State-UTSA: Welp, the Roadrunners got it done for us with a pretty balanced attack against a disciplined, if nothing else, New Mexico team. Surprisingly the Cowboys got most of it done on the ground against Mississippi State, and didn't turn the ball over. Because this at UTSA, I might make a case for the Roadrunners again if they want to give us enough points.
Houston-Temple: The Owls covered in South Bend, but only because Notre Dame let them, really. Ress pretty much lit them up passing, averaging over 15 yards a completion. First thought was what would the Cougars passing attack do to them, but it was Houston who rushed for almost 400 yards against Southern, and whose average per completion was only 6.5 yards. Not sure if that's a product of playing Southern, or a trend. I suppose, again, if there's enough points, playing at home w/Fordham next, we might think about the Owls, although Houston does have a bye week.
North Texas-Ohio: Obviously UNT after the easy win/cover at home on the up-tick and we'll have to see what Ohio does against L'ville. If we want to back the home team, it'd be better if they got killed in Louisville because we'd get better value. Mean Green clearly a team on the rise, and at home to Ball State (tough game) next week and at UGA the following week, where I do think they cover (in Athens). They'll be ready for Conference play, so perhaps a futures bet there, because they will be over valued, IMO.
Here's some of the week two SEC stuff I started last week, which were written before week ones' games. I know you want the winners. Later. Shall retrieve and add to my notes later
Florida at Miami: Much bigger game than many might realize, since it was UF who cancelled this rivalry several years ago. The people in Miami are also pissed because it's a Noon game, and they lobbied hard for the 7PM night game for the exposure, and of course the atmosphere. As it turns out, ABC has NASCAR that night from Richmond, and ESPN is doing the Notre Dame-Michigan game. The game is, however, sold out and was in July. Florida hasn't won in Miami in over a decade, losing the only two games played in 2003 and 2004. This WAS the look-ahead game for both teams, and both teams have a bye next week. IMO advantage 'Canes since they return so many and are at home, as opposed to Florida who had eight players (three in the first two rounds, all on defense) drafted, and six more signed as free agents with NFL teams.
South Carolina at Georgia: A game everyone's had circled since the two met last year in Columbia, in a game the 'Cocks took control of early and never let up. It was clearly the biggest National embarrassment to the 'Dawgs in some time, not just from "losing", but the "way they lost". I fully expect them to be about as motivated for this game as they were the SEC Championship game against Alabama last year. A lot of people are high on South Carolina and a lot of people are or having taken over 9.5 wins for this team, and I am not sold on it. Tough schedule mid-season w/three straight Conference road games, right before playing the only other game they may lose, to Florida, at home. This game dictates a ton, nationally. The winner is in the drivers' seat for the SEC East very early, and the loser will need help they may not get.
Missouri-Toledo: Missouri is actually one of my under-the-radar teams for this season. Franklin, although I don't think he's great, did miss the better part of five games last season. And, under Pinkel, this was a team that had gone to about seven straight Bowls prior to playing in the SEC. I just think they were totally unprepared and dealt with injuries. Not saying they've got a chance to win anything, but they will cover some games (at home v/South Carolina, IMO) that many might not expect. Toledo is a team that will also make some noise, and one that Missouri shouldn't take too lightly. If they escape Florida without serious incident, they bring back most of an offense that lost three games last year, exclusive of a Bowl meltdown against Chuckie Keaton. They lost at Arizona in OT, lost to Ball State (on the road) and at home to Northern Illinois. So, the Tigers had better not sleep on them.
Tennessee-Western Kentucky: After thumping the shit out of Austin Peay, one would think that Butch Jones has them back on the map. Let's not be too hasty here. The Vols lost everyone on offense and had no defense last season, and they have no bye. Hardly. They play at Oregon and at Florida in the next two weeks. And last season they played in Alabama (35-0) so this is far from virgin territory to this team. And of course the Hilltoppers just played at Kentucky (sort of) so they've had some test, in in a huge revenge game, as opposed to Austin Peay. Western is breaking in a new quarterback, and bring back half of what actually was a reasonable defense, considering they played in the Sun Belt Conference. I can see, however, WKY stubbing their toe here, since Butch Jones, albeit without much talent, will have Tennessee at least playing error-free football. That's one reason I do lean to the under here.
Vanderbilt-Austin Peay: Well props to Austin Peay for trying here. But, with Vanderbilt's issues and a game against South Carolina next week, Austin Peay covering what will surely be a big number is far from out of the question. Let's not forget they covered +52 at Virginia Tech last year, so again, they won't be overwhelmed here at all. This will be rare air for the Commodores, being favored by this much, although last season they were -33 to UMass and won by 42. Probably too close for comfort, and there is simply no chance of me taking Vanderbilt here, no matter what the number is.