What Bettors Need to Know: Kentucky at Louisville
By Covers.com
Kentucky Wildcats at Louisville Cardinals (-12.5, 42)
Louisville will try to win its second straight Governor’s Cup against Kentucky on Sunday after losing the previous four. The Cardinals tied for the Big East title last season and have a lot of talent back to make a run for a BCS bowl game. Louisville won five of its last six regular-season games as quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, the Big East Rookie of the Year, came of age. Bridgewater won’t have his top receiver Michaelee Harris, lost for the season with a knee injury, but the Cardinals have depth at the position.
Kentucky will likely face a very solid defense, which has six starters returning, without Josh Clemons. The tailback had arthroscopic knee surgery last week. Still, the pressure is squarely on Louisville. Kentucky leads the series 14-10 and has won five straight season openers overall.
LINE: Louisville -13
KENTUCKY (2011: 5-7, 2-6 SEC): The Wildcats beat Ole Miss, Tennessee and gave Georgia a scare in their last four games to squeeze something out of a disappointing season. When Clemons returns, Kentucky could have a solid one-punch at running back with CoShik Williams, who had a team-leading 486 yards in 2011. Sophomore Maxwell Smith won the battle for the quarterback spot. The team’s most productive returning player - La’Rod King (40 receptions, 598 yards) - will make his job easier. The Wildcats allowed 24.7 points per contest last year and have lost some key personnel on defense. Others must step up, especially defensive back Martavius Neloms.
LOUISVILLE (2011: 7-6, 5-2 Big East): If the Cardinals can match last season’s solid efforts on defense, they are the definite frontrunner in the Big East. Louisville was second in the Big East in total defense and 10th in the nation in rushing defense in 2011. The Cardinals lost some key performers, but have talented safety Hakeem Smith, cornerback Adrian Bushell and linebacker Preston Brown to lead the way. Coach Charlie Strong is expecting Bridgewater to progress after throwing 14 touchdown passes and being intercepted 12 times. Converted quarterback Dominique Brown should be able to take some pressure off at running back as well.
TRENDS
*Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Louisville.
*Under is 9-0 in Cardinals’ last nine home games.
*Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
*Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Louisville must replace their starting punter and place kicker.
2. Kentucky was 118th in total offense last season at less than 260 yards per game.
3. The Under is 9-0 in Louisville’s last nine home games.
What Bettors Need to Know: SMU at Baylor
By Covers.com
Southern Methodist at Baylor (-8.5, 58.5)
With the explosive combination of Robert Griffin III and Kendall Wright in the NFL, Baylor begins anew with an old Southwest Conference rival in Southern Methodist on Sunday. While quarterback Nick Florence cannot be expected to replace Griffin’s production, it will not be the first time the senior signal-caller will be asked to fill in for the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, like he did when Griffin was lost for the year early in 2009. Wide receiver Terrance Williams returns to lead a group of three returning receivers who caught at least 42 passes last season. SMU, which will join the Big East Conference in all sports next July, begins its final season in Conference USA after closing 2011 with an impressive victory over Pittsburgh in the BBVA Compass Bowl.
LINE: Baylor -10
ABOUT SMU (2011: 8-5, 5-3 C-USA): Running back Zach Line puts some bite into the ground game of coach June Jones’ run-and-shoot offense. The two-time All-Conference USA selection has led the league in rushing in each of the past two seasons, but the addition of quarterback Garrett Gilbert – a University of Texas transfer – could make this offense special. The Gatorade National Player of the Year in 2009, Gilbert threw two touchdown passes in the Longhorns’ BCS title game loss to Alabama that same year and started every game for Texas in 2010 before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury early last season.
ABOUT BAYLOR (2011: 10-3, 6-3 Big 12): Wide receiver Darryl Stonum joins the team after sitting out last season following his transfer from Michigan, where he caught 49 passes in 2010. In the running game, Oregon transfer Lache Seastrunk and Jarred Salubi form an impressive tandem that will try to replace running back Terrance Ganaway’s 1,547 rushing yards from a season ago. More will be asked of the defense this season as eight starters return on that side of the ball, although newcomer defensive end Javonte Magee may end up packing the biggest punch for this unit.
TRENDS
*Bears are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games.
*Under is 4-0 in Mustangs last four games overall.
*Mustangs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
*Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
EXTRA POINTS
1. SMU leads the all-time series 36-35-7, but Baylor has won nine consecutive contests dating back to their last meeting in 2005.
2. Baylor enters this game on a six-game winning streak, the third-longest active run in the nation.
3. The Mustangs have not opened a season with a win on the road since 1986.
NCAAF Week 1 Preview
Kentucky won four of last five games with Louisville; five of last seven series games were decided by 7 or less points, with underdogs going 7-3 vs spread in last ten. Kentucky has 6 starters back on offense, 2 on OL, 5 back on defense; their soph QB started three games LY. Wildcats are 6-9 vs spread as underdog under Phillips, 2-6 on road. Louisville is pick to win Big East this year, after going 7-6 in each of Strong's first two years as HC, but Cardinals are 4-9 vs spread at home under Strong, 6-6 when favored (4-6 at home). Soph QB Bridgewater started 10 games LY; they have four starters back on OL, but two of them are sophomores.
Baylor begins life after RGIII, but at least Florence has 7 career starts, and he's a senior; Bears are 13-7 vs spread as home favorite last decade, 9-4 under Briles- they're 10-7 vs spread in last 17 non-league tilts. SMU lost its whole OL from LY and has only 3 starters back on offense; they are 2-6 as road underdogs last two years. Baylor DC Bennett was HC at SMU from '02-'07. Mustang QB Gilbert is Texas transfer who started 10 games for Longhorns. These former SWC rivals are meeting for first time since '05. Baylor allowed 30+ points in seven of last eight games LY.
Armadillosports.com
Betting Preview: Kentucky vs Louisville
Sportspic.com
Charlie Strong led football teams that exceeded expectations in each of his first two seasons as head coach of the Louisville Cardinals. All that has done is raise expectations. The Cardinals are the consensus sports betting pick to win the Big East in 2012, and Strong has embraced those expectations. This will be the most talented roster that Strong will have coached in his three years with the program, and both the players and fans have embraced the positive energy that comes with it. First on the schedule is a meeting with the in-state rival Kentucky Wildcats this Sunday, a matchup that illustrates just how far the Cardinals’ program has come.
Kentucky Wildcats @ #25 Louisville Cardinals
Sunday September 2, 2012 – 3:30 PM ET
Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium, Louisville Kentucky
College Football Betting Line: Louisville – 13
The Wildcats lead the all-time series between these two with a 14-10 record, but it was Louisville that came out on top a year ago to break a four-year losing skid. This time it will be the Cardinals listed as favorites, a role reversal that has them favored by more than a touchdown to make it two years in a row.
College Football Betting Preview: Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky was one of the worst team’s in the nation moving the ball through the air a year ago, and there is not much room for optimism in that department heading in to this season. Sophomore quarterback Maxwell Smith didn’t do much to stand out in eight games, and doesn’t have many quality options to help improve this season beyond wide receiver La’Rod King. The Wildcats are also expected to struggle on the defensive side of the ball where serious turnover has left them with one of the youngest units in the Big East.
College Football Betting Preview: Louisville Cardinals
Last year’s Big East Rookie of the Year award winner Teddy Bridgewater will be back under center for Louisville in 2012, with the added benefit of another year of experience. Who emerges as his top receiver is somewhat of an unknown after last year’s top target Michaelee Harris tore his ACL, but there is plenty of talent there to work with, and Bridewater will once again be protected by a stellar offensive line led by center Mario Benavides. All-Big East safety Hakeem Smith will anchor the defense once again, and with nose tackle Brandon Dunn and linebacker Preston Brown both back in the fold, the Cardinals will be fine on that side of the ball.
College Football Betting Preview: Outlook & Pick
The Cardinals have accepted their role as online sportsbook favorite in the Big East this season, and will look to establish the tone from the opening game against their in-state rivals. Kentucky has too many holes on both sides of the ball to keep this game close beyond the third quarter, and it’s only a matter of time before Bridgewater and the offense break things wide open.
Pick: Louisville