College Football Betting News and Notes Sunday 9/4

Sunday's College Slate
By Brian Edwards

With Week 1 of the 2011 NFL season not starting until Thursday, gamblers have to concentrate on college football Sunday with a pair of televised games on the docket.

Let’s start with a huge rivalry game between West Virginia and Marshall in Morgantown. Most betting shops, as of Saturday afternoon, were listing the Mountaineers as 23-point favorites with the total in the 55-56 range. Lucky’s in Las Vegas had the Thundering Herd at plus-1150 on the money line (risk $100 to win $1,150).

West Va. has a new head coach in Dana Holgorsen, who was brought in from Oklahoma St. as the coach-in-waiting behind Bill Stewart in an extremely odd scenario. Stewart also found it odd, allegedly attempting to talk a local media member into digging up dirt on Holgorsen.

Whatever the case, Stewart took a pink slip this summer and Holgorsen, the former offensive coordinator at OSU, is now the man in charge. (Wasn’t that the purpose anyway?)

WVU brings back eight starters on offense and four on defense from last year’s 9-4 squad that lost 23-7 to North Carolina St. in the Champs Sports Bowl. Holgorsen inherits the Big East’s best signal caller in junior Geno Smith, who completed 64.8 percent of his passes for 2,763 yards with a 24/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his first year as the starter.

Smith’s favorite target, Jock Sanders, is gone but Tavon Austin is back. Austin hauled in 58 receptions for 787 yards and eight TDs. Noel Devine, an explosive threat out of the backfield the last four years, has also departed.

Even though WVU’s ‘D’ lost a lot of key key pieces, the unit does return senior DE Bruce Irvin, who had 14 sacks last year. Terence Garvin, who might be the Big East’s best safety, also returns after leading the ‘Neers in tackles with 76. So does Keith Tandy, who led the Big East with six interceptions.

Marshall began the Doc Holliday Era by going 5-7 straight up and 4-7-1 against the spread. The Thundering Herd won four of its last five games and had it not let the WVU game get away, it may have gone bowling.

Marshall hosted the Mountaineers in Huntington in Week 2 and dominated for the first three quarters. The Herd led by a 21-6 count going into the final stanza, only to allow WVU to force overtime with 12 ticks left thanks to a TD pass from Smith and a two-point conversion. West Va. prevailed in the extra session on Tyler Bitancurt’s 20-yard field goal, but Marshall took the cash as a 12-point home underdog.

The Herd returns four starters on offense and nine on defense. It must replace veteran QB Brian Anderson, though. The job has been won by true freshman Rakeem Cato. His favorite target will most likely be Aaron Dobson, who finished 2010 with 44 catches for 689 yards and five TDs. WR Troy Evans (21 catches for 225 yards and 3 TDs LY) won’t be available after getting suspended indefinitely in the aftermath of being charged with four armed robberies.

On the injury front for WVU, its starting OG Josh Jenkins is out for the season with a knee injury.

ESPN will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

The late game will take place at Kyle Field in College Station, where Texas A&M will host SMU. Most books are listing the Aggies as 15½-point favorites with the total in the 56-57 range. Bettors can take the Mustangs to win outright for a plus-450 return (risk $100 to win $450 per the LV Hilton early Saturday evening).

Texas A&M finished last season strong, winning six straight games to close the regular season and get Mike Sherman off the hot seat. Sherman deserves the credit thanks to a bold move to replace four-year starting QB Jerrod Johnson with Ryan Tannehill, who threw for 1,638 yards and 13 touchdowns.

The Aggies’ momentum was halted in a 41-24 Cotton Bowl loss to LSU, but they still come into this year with optimism galore. Most polls and/or publications have Texas A&M in the top-10 of the national rankings.

Sherman’s squad brings back 10 starters on offense and eight on defense. All of Tannehill’s WRs are back, including senior Jeff Fuller, who finished 2010 with 72 catches for 1,066 yards and 12 TDs. Fuller has been struggling with a hamstring injury but he will play.

SMU went 7-7 SU and 5-8-1 ATS last season. The Mustangs dropped a 16-14 decision to Army in the Armed Forces Bowl. They have been to back-to-back bowl games under June Jones after a postseason absence that dated back to 1984.

SMU has 10 starters back on offense and eight on defense. Jones has junior Kyle Padron under center after he threw for 3,828 yards with a 31/14 TD-INT ratio as a sophomore. Pardron has most of his WRs back with the exception of Aldrick Robinson, who had 65 catches for 1,301 yards and 14 TDs last year.

WRs Cole Beasley and Darius Johnson are back in the mix. Beasley finished 2010 with a team-high 87 receptions for 1,060 yards and six TDs, while Johnson had 78 grabs for 845 yards and six scores.

Jones has used more balance in his offense at SMU compared to his previous tenure at Hawaii. In fact, junior RB Zach Line rushed for 1,494 yards and 10 TDs last season, averaging 6.1 yards per carry.

SMU has been a double-digit underdog seven times over the last two years, going 6-1 versus the number. The Mustangs opened 2010 with a 35-27 loss at Texas Tech as 13½-point underdogs.

FSN will provide television coverage at 7:30 p.m. Eastern.

vegasinsider.com

West Virginia Hosts Marshall Thundering Herd
By: Jeff Grant

The Marshall Thundering Herd will meet up with the West Virginia Mountaineers in an in-state rivalry game that has been dubbed the “Friends of the Coal” Bowl. Sunday’s kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. (ET) at Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown, and will be televised nationally on ESPN.

West Virginia is one of three teams tied for 30th in the season-opening Don Best Oddsmaker Poll, a little lower than where the AP lists the Mountaineers, and should start the 2011 college football season in the win column. The Mountaineers have won all 10 previous meetings against the Thundering Herd.

Current betting odds have the Mountaineers listed as 23-point favorites and the total stands at 55 ½.

Last year’s contest was one of the more exciting games on either team's schedule, as West Virginia rallied from a 15-point deficit in the final 8:28 of the game to force overtime, eventually coming away with a 24-21 road win in Huntington. The Mountaineers grabbed the cash as 12-point road underdogs in that contest, while the teams slipped under the posted total of 46 at kickoff.

West Virginia head coach Dana Holgorsen will get his first look at the rivalry after becoming the school’s 33rd head coach during the offseason. He was named a finalist for the Frank Broyles Award while serving as Oklahoma State’s offensive coordinator last year, a distinction that goes to the nation’s top assistant coach.

Holgorsen’s offense led the nation in total offense and finished third in scoring offense. The Cowboys averaged 520.2 yards per game, while scoring 44.2 points a contest.

There’s been talk around the practice field that West Virginia junior quarterback Geno Smith is still trying to grasp the playbook. He will be entering his second year as the school’s signal-caller, throwing for 2,763 yards and 24 touchdowns in 2010.

Fans in Morgantown are accustomed to the Mountaineers opening things with a victory, as the program is 92-18-6 in home openers, including a 31-0 win over Coastal Carolina as 41½-point favorites. Bettors will be interested to know that West Virginia has failed to cover two of its last three games when matching up against Conference USA opponents.

Marshall head coach Doc Holliday treats this rivalry like it's the Wild West, as he closes practices off from the media for the only week of the season. Much was made of a 2006 incident when a spy from Morgantown was spotted at a Herd practice taking notes.

The 2011 schedule is daunting from the outset and it will be important for Holliday’s staff to keep spirits up on the sidelines. The Thundering Herd will open the season by playing six teams that participated in bowl games a year ago.

Marshall will combat Holgorson’s offensive system with nine returning starters on defense, including the entire secondary. It was a solid group a year ago, ranking fourth in Conference USA in both total (386 ypg) and scoring defense (28.8).

True freshman Rakeem Cato gets the nod at quarterback and will be taking on a Mountaineers defense that finished third nationally in allowing 261.1 yards per game a year ago.

The Thundering Herd have covered their last two meetings with teams from the Big East Conference.

Weather forecasts suggest game-time highs in the mid-80s and a 50 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms throughout. A southern wind of 5-10 mph will also be present.

What Bettors Need to Know: Marshall at West Virginia

Marshall Thundering Herd at West Virginia Mountaineers (-23.5, 55.5)

THE STORY: West Virginia has a new coach who's known for gun-slinging offense. Marshall has a second-year coach who played for WVU and goes by "Doc" Holliday. Last year the teams went to overtime in what was their closest game since 1911. What more can you ask for from this intrastate rivalry in wild West Virginia? To be fair, last season's 24-21 Mountaineers triumph was only the programs' 10th meeting all-time, and WVU has won all of them, but still, it sounds like a fun opening fight.

ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (2010: 9-4, 5-2 Big East): The Mountaineers have had their share of success in the post-Rich Rodriguez era, but only to a point. They've posted three consecutive 5-2 conference marks, but have been unable to close with bowl victories the past two seasons. WVU won its last four regular-season games in 2010, then flamed out against North Carolina State in a 23-7 Champs Sports Bowl defeat.

Bill Stewart was supposed to continue at the helm for this season, with Dana Holgorsen hired as his offensive coordinator and coach-in-waiting, but Stewart was forced out in June and Holgorsen took over. The preseason Big East favorites return junior QB Geno Smith, whose 24 TD passes last year (against only seven picks) were second-most in school history. Behind Smith, as many as seven running backs and fullbacks could see action in the opener, Holgorsen has said. Top receiver junior Tavon Austin caught 58 passes for 787 yards and eight TDs last year.

ABOUT MARSHALL (2010: 5-7, 4-4 C-USA): John "Doc" Holliday was on staff at WVU from 1979 to 1999, and was a candidate to succeed Rodriguez but wound up serving under Stewart as an associate coach. After suffering through a 1-6 start to his first head coaching season, the Thundering Herd rebounded to win four of their final five games.

Defense spurred the turnaround; Marshall allowed 35.6 points allowed over its first seven games and just 19.2 the last five. Marshall returns nine defensive starters. Senior end Vinny Curry (94 tackles, 12 sacks) is the C-USA preseason Defensive Player of the Year and one of four team captains, including two more senior defenders, safety Omar Brown and linebacker Tyson Gale. Senior left tackle Ryan Tillman is the other captain.

LINE MOVES: WVU opened as a 21.5-point home favorite and was bet up as high as -23.5. The totaled opened at 51 points and has climbed to as high as 56.5 with action on the Over.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Holgorsen has led prolific offenses at Oklahoma State, Houston and Texas Tech in recent years. Last season the Cowboys ranked third in total offense, jumping from 61st the previous year without Holgorsen, and OSU wide receiver Justin Blackmon garnered the Biletnikoff Award.

2. Holliday played 28 freshmen last season, with only Florida (31) putting more freshmen on the field at the FBS level.

3. West Virginia won back-to-back meetings in 1915 and 1923 by a combined 173-6 (92-6 and 81-0), and before last season's 24-21 OT victory the closest game was the first, a 17-15 Mountaineers win in 1911.

TRENDS:

- Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
- Thundering Herd are 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 road games.
- Mountaineers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games as home favorites of 10.5 or greater.
- Under is 11-5 in Thundering Herd's last 16 road games.
- Under is 6-1 in Mountaineers' last seven games as favorites.

PREDICTION: West Virginia 55, Marshall 20 -- Holgorsen could have fun testing his offensive scheme and range of contributors in the opener. Plus the Mountaineers get to avenge their surprising loss to the Thundering Herd on the basketball court back in January.

Game of the day: SMU at Texas A&M

SMU Mustangs at Texas A&M Aggies (-15.5, 56.5)

THE STORY: The biggest, most important, zaniest season in a long time begins at Texas A&M, which enters the season ranked ninth and is expected to challenge No. 1 Oklahoma for the Big 12 Conference championship.

It may be the Aggies’ last shot at it, too, as Texas A&M is expected to leave the Big 12 for the Southeastern Conference. So it is fitting the Aggies begin the season against Southern Methodist, a former rival from the old Southwest Conference, which Texas A&M also left behind.

ABOUT TEXAS A&M (9-4 in 2010): A mid-season quarterback change made all the difference for the Aggies last season. Fortunately, they didn’t have to make a change this fall as Ryan Tannehill returns after throwing for 1,600 yards and 13 touchdowns in six starts last season, as does leading receiver Jeff Fuller.

ABOUT SMU (7-7 in 2010): Two decades of clouds have finally broken for the Mustangs, who played in their second bowl game in a row last season. SMU would love to get a call from the Big 12 if Texas A&M leaves, so this is an opportunity for the kind of win that would help the Mustang’s argument.

LINE MOVES: Texas A&M opened as low as -15 and has stayed around that number for the most part. The total has also remained steady, opening at 56 points and being bet up to 57.5 before settling at 56.5.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. SMU’s last game against a Big 12 team was a one-touchdown loss at Texas Tech last season. Its last game against Texas A&M was a 66-8 loss in 2005.

2. Texas A&M hasn’t lost to SMU since 1984 and is 9-0-1 in the last 10 meetings.

3. The Aggies begin the season in the top 10 for the first time since 1999, the year after they won the Big 12 championship.

TRENDS:

- Mustangs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs.
- Aggies are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games.
- Under is 8-3-1 in Mustangs' last 12 games as road underdogs.
- Under is 5-1 in Aggies' last six home games.

PREDICTION: Texas A&M 38, SMU 20 - The Tannehill-to-Fuller connection is too much for most teams, and SMU is no different. The Mustangs aren’t a pushover anymore, but the Aggies still have plenty to prove, even if they are in the top 10.