College Football Betting News and Notes Sunday January, 5

GoDaddy.com Bowl Preview
By Sportsbook.ag

ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES (9-3) vs. KENT STATE GOLDEN FLASHES (11-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Arkansas St -3.5 & 61
Opening Line & Total: Red Wolves -5 & 61

A pair of offense-heavy schools look for their first-ever bowl wins on Sunday night in Mobile, AL when Arkansas State meets up with Kent State.

Arkansas State is 0-3-1 SU in its bowl history, while Kent State is 0-2 SU all-time. But the Red Wolves are making their second straight GoDaddy.com Bowl appearance while the Golden Flashes haven't been bowling since the 1972 Tangerine Bowl. ASU has won seven straight games (6-1 ATS), scoring 34+ points in every win. QB Ryan Aplin has thrown for 16 TD and just 2 INT in this stretch.

KSU has scored 28+ points in 10 straight games, averaging 37.2 PPG during this span (9-1 SU and ATS). The Flashes possess a pair of 1,200-yard rushers in Dri Archer (1,352 yds, 15 TD) and Trayion Durham (1,248 yds, 14 TD), leading to an FBS-best-tying +21 turnover margin.

The Red Wolves will be led by defensive coordinator John Thompson, who was named the interim head coach when Gus Malzahn took the job at Auburn. KSU's head man Darrell Hazell is leaving for Purdue, but he will be coaching his team in this contest.

The Golden Flashes ended their season with a heart-breaking overtime loss to Northern Illinois in the MAC title game, but this is a tough (11-2 ATS) and disciplined (+21 TO margin, tied for tops in FBS) team that is determined to win its first bowl, keeping Hazell around for just that purpose. Kent State is an excellent rushing team with a dynamic duo of Dri Archer and Trayion Durham, who have combined for 2,600 rushing yards and 29 TD. And Arkansas State is 4-20 ATS (17%) versus teams averaging at least 4.75 yards per carry since 1992.

Aplin has gained more than 300 yards in each of the past four games, totaling 1,464 yards (366 YPG). He also threw for 353 yards in last year's GoDaddy.com Bowl, but his three interceptions proved costly in the 38-20 loss to Northern Illinois. But this season, Aplin has the services of talented freshman WR J.D. McKissic who leads the team with 92 catches and 909 yards. In the past four games, McKissic has piled up 396 yards on 42 receptions.

The Red Wolves actually run the ball more efficiently (217 YPG, 21st in nation) than they throw it (264 YPG, 40th in FBS). Junior RB David Oku (1,056 rush yds, 15 TD) has been an absolute workhorse this year with 225 carries (18.8 per game), including 122 carries (20.3 per game) over the past six contests. Oku has only three 100-yard efforts with all this work, but two have come in the past three games, where he's rumbled for 326 yards and 6 TD. ASU's offense has turned the ball over just twice in the past five games combined.

On defense, the school ranks 51st in the nation in both scoring defense (25.4 PPG) and total defense (387 YPG). Although the Red Wolves have held each of their past five opponents to less than 90 rushing yards, they are allowing 322 passing YPG in this stretch. This is especially troubling since they are giving up all this yardage despite having forced 12 turnovers in these five contests.

Kent State ranks 16th in FBS in rushing offense (228 YPG), and had gained more than 200 yards on the ground in five straight games before being held to 70 yards on 42 carries in the MAC Championship game loss to Northern Illinois. Archer has five games of 125+ rushing yards this season, but has been held to just 68 yards (2.7 YPC) in his past two games combined. He has been a great receiver all year though, with 539 yards and 4 TD through the air, including 139 yards in the past two contests. Durham has six 100-yard games in his sophomore season thanks to double-digit carries in each contest.

Senior QB Spencer Keith threw just 3 INT in his first nine games combined, but has tossed six picks in the past four contests. For the season, he's thrown for 1,864 yards (6.2 YPA) with 12 TD and 9 INT, and he knows he must be a lot more accurate than he has been in his past two games, completing just 24-of-56 passes (42.9%).

Like ASU, the Flashes also struggle against good passing offenses, allowing 277 YPG (T-14th most in FBS). But they create a ton of turnovers (24 in past seven games) due to a fierce pass rush recording 2.54 sacks per game (26th in FBS).

GoDaddy.com Bowl Betting Preview
By Otto Sports
Sportsmemo.com

Arkansas State vs. Kent State
CRIS Opener: Arkansas State -3 O/U 61
CRIS Current: Arkansas State -4 O/U 61
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Arkansas State -0.5

The last of the mid major bowls kicks off on Sunday, the final game of what should be an exciting day’s worth of football. While it’s definitely not as exciting as the NFL Playoffs, as a standalone primetime game it should garner some attention. The GoDaddy.com Bowl takes place in Mobile which is notorious for its rain —in fact it’s the wettest city in the United States—but the preliminary forecast calls for a dry evening so totals bettors shouldn’t have to worry about poor conditions.

Both Arkansas State and Kent State like to run the football. The Golden Flashes rank 15th in the country in rushing yards per game while Arkansas State comes in just a tad behind at 21st. Both teams have hung some big scoring numbers with Kent averaging 34 points per game and Arkansas State averaging 36 points per game. Kent averages a little more in terms of yards per carry thanks in large part to the unreal average Dri Archer brings to the table at 9.01 ypc. If you haven’t seen Archer yet this year you’re in for a real treat. As I covered in the MAC Championship, Archer is one of the most dynamic athletes in college football; an ace return man, a solid weapon as a receiver and an elusive and explosive runner of the ball. But in discussing Archer we start to see where these teams are different offensively. Kent is, by and large, a one trick pony where Arkansas State can complement their solid ground game with a good passing attack led by senior quarterback Ryan Aplin.

Aplin led a passing attack that averaged over 240 yards per game this year. He had five 300-yard passing efforts, seven multi-touchdown passing games and completed 68% of his passes. His contributions make the Red Wolves a 200/200 offense and it makes them extremely difficult to defend and game plan against.

On the flip side of that is the one dimensional Kent State attack. While they’ve certainly put their fair share of points on the board the fact remains they struggle to move the ball through the air. The Flashes rank 114th in the nation in passing at 162 yards per game. That brings me back to the one trick pony comment; if Kent doesn’t get the huge plays from Archer (run, catch, return), it will have a hard time winning this game.

At this point we need to address a couple of spread numbers. Kent was one of the single greatest ATS teams a single season could ever see. They covered 10 of their 12 regular season games and scored a push if you got +7 in the MAC Championship. Meanwhile Arkansas State’s nine wins this year all came by more than the 3.5 point spread we see in this game. Something obviously has got to give.

GoDaddy.com Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Kent State vs. Arkansas State (-3.5, 62)

GODADDY.COM BOWL STORYLINES

1. Arkansas State and Kent State are victims of their own success, with both coaches taking jobs at other schools since the regular season concluded. Kent State's Darrell Hazell, the new coach at Purdue, is sticking around for the bowl game. Meanwhile, an interim coach leads Arkansas State into the Godaddy.com Bowl for the second consecutive season. Defensive coordinator John Thompson will lead the Red Wolves after Gus Malzahn left to take over at Auburn.

2. There are three 1,000-yard rushers in this game. Arkansas State's David Oku racked up 1,043 yards after spending 2011 completely out of football following his transfer out of Tennessee. Kent State has Trayion Durham and Dri Archer, the latter of whom was a consensus All-American at the kick return/all-purpose position. He's the first consensus honoree in Kent State history.

3. The key matchup is whether Kent State can slow down the Red Wolves' passing game. The Golden Flashes ranked 11th in the MAC and 108th nationally in pass defense, allowing 276.5 yards. That could be bad news against Arkansas State quarterback Ryan Aplin, the two-time Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year who holds Sun Belt career records for total offense and passing yardage, and broke his own school record for single-season touchdowns with 23.

LINE: Arkansas State -3.5, O/U 62

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s with clear skies. Winds will be light out of the north at 5 mph.

TRENDS:

* Red Wolves are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Golden Flashes are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 6-1 in Golden Flashes’ last seven vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 14-4-1 in Red Wolves’ last 19 non-conference games.

ABOUT KENT STATE (11-2, 8-1 MAC): The Golden Flashes won the East Division title in the MAC and is making their first bowl appearance since December 1972. Archer logged a 38.2-yard average on kickoff returns with three returns for touchdowns. Archer, who's scored 22 total touchdowns in 13 games, is the only player in the country with more than 1,300 yards rushing and 500 receiving. He also threw a 24-yard touchdown pass this season. Linebacker Luke Batton is the Golden Flashes' top defensive player. He has 132 total tackles and ranks as one of the top 20 most prolific defenders in the country. Kent State ranks second in Division I in turnover margin and - with 38 takeaways - is tied with Oregon for the nation's lead. The Golden Flashes have solid special teams. In addition to Archer's exploits as a returner, Kent State led the MAC in net punting and kicker Freddy Cortez closed the season with six straight made field goals.

ABOUT ARKANSAS STATE (9-3, 7-1 Sun Belt): The Red Wolves finished the regular season strong, scoring 131 total points in their final three games and topping 500 yards of offense in each of those contests. Arkansas State can break the school record for points in a season by scoring 20, a safe bet considering the Red Wolves topped 30 points in 11 of 13 games. Freshman wide receiver J.D. McKissic is Aplin's top target and - with 92 catches - needs three more to break the single-season reception record. Thompson, who in his first season as defensive coordinator, helped Arkansas State lead the Sun Belt in scoring defense for the second straight year. Linebacker Nathan Herrold has 109 tackles, the first Arkansas State defender to reach triple digits since 2007. Placekicker Brian Davis is a reliable weapon, with 40 made field goals for his career and a school-record 100 points this season.

GoDaddy.com Bowl

Both teams working with interim coaches after bigger schools scooped up coaches who led these teams to 10-3/11-2 seasons. MAC teams won this game six of last nine years, beating Sun Belt teams last three games. Arkansas State wil have fourth HC in four years next year; they're 0-2 in bowl games, but won last seven games overall, scoring average of 41 ppg. Flashes are 5-2 vs spread as favorites this year. Kent State lost in OT in MAC title game; they're 5-1 vs spread as an underdog, +21 in turnovers this season. In five games vs bowl teams, they were outgained by average of 76 yards/game, but were pulled through by turnovers/improved special teams. Underdogs covered this bowl game last two years, after going 0-6-1 vs spread in previous seven. Average total in this game last five years is 67.4. This season, MAC teams are 2-3 in bowl games, with four of five staying under total; Sun Belt teams are 1-2, all as favorites. Dogs are 16-16 vs spread overall in bowls this season; under is 19-14.

Armadillosports.com