College Football betting trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
College Football Week 1
Virginia Tech has a new QB; their offensive line has 72 returning starts. Since 2011, Hokies are just 19-34-1 vs spread when favored. Since ’10, they’re 13-20-1 in non-ACC games. Tech has only 5 starters back on offense. West Virginia lost 8 starters on defense, 6 on offense; since ’12, they’re 7-12 vs spread outside the Big X. WVU is 7-9 vs spread in last 16 games when getting points. Mountaineers’ OL has only 46 returning starts. ACC-Big X don’t meet often; last five years, ACC teams are 6-5 vs spread when facing a Big X squad.
Pac-12-SEC games don’t happen much; since 2011, SEC teams are 7-3 vs spread when they play a Pac-12 opponent. Under Sumlin, Texas A&M is 12-13 vs spread out of conference; since 2013, they’re 3-7 vs spread when getting points. Aggies lost 6 starters on offense; they’ve got a new QB, their OL has only 48 returning starts. UCLA has 9 starters back on offense; their OL has 85 returning starts. Since 2014, Bruins are 5-10 vs spread as a favorite; they’re 1-8-1 vs spread in last 10 non-conference games.
Armadillosports.com
Sunday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia
These former Big East rivals will square of in Landover, MD, where the Redskins call home in NFL action. FedEx Field is located 214 miles away from Morgantown and 285 miles from Blacksburg. These schools haven’t met since 2005. Virginia Tech has a 9-3 record in this rivalry.
As of Saturday afternoon, most betting shops had Virginia Tech installed as a four or 4.5-point favorite with a total of 51.5. The Mountaineers were available on the money line for a +175 return (risk $100 to win $175).
Virginia Tech went to the ACC Championship Game in its first season under Justin Fuente, coming up on the short end of a 42-35 decision against eventual national champ, Clemson. The Hokies took the cash as 10.5-point underdogs, however. Also, they overcame a 24-0 halftime deficit to rally past Arkansas for a 35-24 win as seven-point ‘chalk’ at the Belk Bowl.
Fuente’s first team finished 10-4 straight up and 8-6 against the spread. The negative was losing twice as a double-digit favorite at Syracuse (31-17) and vs. Ga. Tech (30-20) but after four consecutive seasons of winning eight games or fewer, the vibe out of Blacksburg was all positive going into the offseason.
Virginia Tech returns five starters on offense and seven on defense. Josh Jackson, a redshirt freshman, has won the starting QB job and will replace Jerod Evans. Jackson will rely heavily on senior wide receiver Cam Phillips, who had 76 receptions for 983 yards and five touchdowns last year. Junior Travon McMillian will get the bulk of the carries after rushing for 671 yards and seven TDs in 2016. McMillian averaged 4.6 yards per carry.
Virginia Tech has one of the top defensive coordinators in all of college football in Bud Foster. His unit gave up 22.8 points per game last season. This group has 11 of its top 14 tacklers back, including junior outside linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, who was a third-team All-American selection in ’16. Edmunds produced 106 tackles, 14.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, nine QB hurries, three passes broken up, one forced fumble and one interception. Senior MLB Andrew Motuapuaka recorded 114 tackles, 3.5 TFL’s, two sacks, five QB hurries, four passes broken and three interceptions.
West Virginia is off its best season since joining the Big 12 in 2012. Dana Holgorsen’s squad went 10-3 SU and 5-8 ATS, but it lost a 31-14 decision to Miami as a 2.5-point underdog at the Russell Athletic Bowl. Holgorsen has taken WVU to five bowl games in six years, going 2-3 in those postseason appearances. This was Holgorsen’s second year with a double-digit win total (10-3 in ’11), but the Mountaineers hadn’t won more than eight games in their first four years of Big 12 play. Holgorsen is now 46-31 at WVU, going 4-4 in eight neutral-site games with a 2-6 spread record.
This game will mark the return of former Florida QB Will Grier, who led the Gators out to a 6-0 start in ’15 before being issued a one-year suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. After the end of the season, Grier decided to transfer to WVU and had to sit out ’16 per transfer rules. He has two years of eligibility remaining. As a redshirt freshman ’15 with UF, Grier completed 65.8 percent of his passes for 1,204 yards with a 10/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also rushed for 116 yards and two scores.
WVU brings back only eight of 22 starters, five on offense and merely three on defense. Senior RB Justin Crawford returns after rushing for 1,184 yards and four TDs with a 7.3 YPC average. Sophomore Kennedy McKoy started a pair of games at RB as a true freshman, producing 472 rushing yards and four TDs while averaging 6.5 YPC.
WVU lost its top two pass catchers, but senior Ka’Raun White appears poised to have a breakout year. White had 48 catches for 583 yards and five TDs last season. Junior Jovon Durante had 35 catches for 331 yards and two TDs, but he elected to transfer Florida Atlantic a few weeks ago. Marcus Simms, a sophomore WR who had six catches for 95 yards and one TD in 10 games as a freshman, is currently suspended.
WVU lost four of its top five tacklers from the best defense of Holgorsen’s tenure. That unit allowed 24.0 PPG. One of the three returning starters is out indefinitely with a knee injury. That would be sophomore LB David Long, who recorded 65 tackles, two sacks, 2.5 TFL’s and two QB hurries last season. WVU’s defensive leader is senior LB Al-Rasheed Benton, who had 80 tackles, three QB hurries, one TFL and one interception in ’16. Senior LB Kyzir White had 58 tackles, three sacks, four TFL’s, five PBU and one QB hurry.
Texas A&M at UCLA
As of Saturday afternoon, most spots had UCLA listed as a four-point favorite with a total of 57. The Aggies were +160 on the money line.
When these teams met in College Station in last season’s opener, UCLA trailed 24-9 with less than five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. But the Bruins scored on back-to-back drives and after Josh Rosen threw a 62-yard TD pass to Kenneth Walker, his two-point conversion pass to Austin Roberts knotted the score. In overtime, Texas A&M got a one-yard TD run from Trevor Knight and then got a stop to capture a 31-24 win. The Aggies covered the number as four-point home favorites, while ‘under’ backers took a tough-luck push when the 55 combined points hit right on the total.
Rosen threw for 343 yards and one TD in the losing effort at A&M, but he was intercepted three times. UCLA had a 468-442 advantage in total offense. RB Soso Jamabo rushed for a team-high 91 yards on 23 carries. For the Aggies, Trayveon Williams ran for 94 yards on 15 totes, while Christian Kirk had 107 all-purpose yards on 11 touches.
This is a crucial season for Texas A&M sixth-year head coach Kevin Sumlin, who has seen his last three teams get off to hot starts only to collapse down the stretch. The end result has been three straight 8-5 campaigns after his tenure started with an 11-2 record in ’12 and a 9-4 ledger in ’13. Sumlin owns a 44-21 record at A&M and a 79-38 career record that includes his time at Houston.
Texas A&M won its first six games last season and had a 14-13 lead in the third quarter at top-ranked Alabama. However, the Crimson Tide scored 20 unanswered points en route to a 33-14 victory. The Aggies would lose five of their last seven contests, including their last four SEC games. They lost at Mississippi St. and vs. Ole Miss (against a starting QB taking his first-ever collegiate snaps) as double-digit favorites. Also, A&M dropped a 33-28 decision to Kansas St. at the Texas Bowl.
Texas A&M returns five starters on offense and seven on defense. Williams enjoyed a banner freshman campaign, rushing for a team-best 1,057 yards and eight TDs while averaging 6.8 YPC. Keith Ford also ran for 669 yards and six TDs, averaging 5.3 YPC, so the Aggies are set in the backfield with a pair of quality players. They lost three excellent WRs in Josh Reynolds, Speedy Noil and Ricky Seals-Jones. However, Christian Kirk is back after garnering first-team All-American honors for his special-teams play. Kirk had 83 catches for 928 yards and nine TDs and also scored three times on punt returns.
Texas A&M lost its top two tacklers and the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft in Myles Garrett. Nevertheless, John Chavis’s unit will be a solid group in ’17. Senior DBs Armani Watts and Donovan Wilson are All-SEC candidates. Wilson tallied 59 tackles, 4.5 TFL’s, two QB hurries, two PBU, one interception and one sack in ’16, while Watts produced 56 tackles, one sack, five TFL’s, three PBU, two interceptions and one QB hurry.
Sumlin has named redshirt freshman Nick Starkel as his starting QB. He’ll be making his first career start on the road, which is typically a difficult task.
Texas A&M senior starting cornerback Nick Harvey is out indefinitely with a knee injury. Harvey recorded f66 tackles, one interception and 10 PBU last season.
UCLA won at least eight games in each of Jim Mora Jr.’s first four seasons, but it limped to a 4-8 record last year after losing Rosen to a season-ending shoulder injury. Before going down in the sixth game, Rosen completed 59.3 percent of his throws with a 10/5 TD-INT ratio. He also had a pair of rushing TDs. As a true freshman in ’15, Rosen started all 13 games and connected on 60.0 percent of his passes for 3,668 yards with a 23/11 TD-INT ratio.
UCLA lost four one-possession games last season. The Bruins won at BYU and at home over UNLV, Arizona and Oregon St. They bring back nine starters on offense and six on defense.
UCLA returns its top-five rushers and its top two WRs, but the ground game was a joke last season. Jamabo rushed for a team-high 321 yards and three TDs, but he averaged just 3.9 YPC. In fact, the Bruins top three rushers each averaged 3.9 YPC or fewer. WR Darren Andrews is off a 55-catch campaign that netted 709 receiving yards and four TD grabs. Jordan Lasley had 41 receptions for 620 yards and five TDs.
UCLA’s defense allowed 27.5 PPG in ’16. This unit will be led by senior LB Kenny Young, a second-team All Pac-12 pick last year when he had 90 tackles, five sacks, 3.5 TFL’s, two PBU and one interception.
UCLA owns an 11-13 spread record in 24 games as a ,home favorite on Mora’s watch. The Bruins are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 such spots.
Texas A&M has compiled a 4-7 spread record as a road underdog during Sumlin’s tenure.
Sunday's Best Bet
Vegasinsider.com
Texas A&M Aggies vs UCLA Bruins
Odds: UCLA (-3.5); Total 56.5
It's not often that you get a cross-country, non-conference rivalry rematch game in college football, but with the landscape always changing in this sport and the money involved for high profile schools to go to battle against one another, thee “manufactured” rivalry games once a year are going to start popping up more and more.
The Stanford/Notre Dame rivalry definitely popularized it, and now to begin 2017, we've got a rematch of last year's season opener between Texas A&M and UCLA.
Last year's game between these two needed OT to be decided, as Texas A&M overcame blowing a 24-9 lead in the final four minutes to win 31-24 and cover the number as 5-point home favorites. This year the venue heads out west to the Rose Bowl, and with UCLA having QB Josh Rosen back in the fold after returning from an injury that derailed UCLA's 2016 season, and bypassing the NFL draft for at least one more year, the Bruins have extremely high hopes for 2017 with Rosen back at the helm. It was Rosen who led UCLA back in the 4th quarter vs. A&M a year ago, but his three INT's in the game ended up being a big factor in UCLA coming up short.
There is no question that one of the reasons behind Rosen's return to UCLA this year was so that he could impress NFL scouts and hopefully improve his draft stock. Missing the latter half of 2016 did Rosen no favors in terms of next level skill development, and one of the biggest knocks on his skill set is his inability to eliminate turnovers.
UCLA's hopes in 2017 are going to heavily rely on the right arm of Rosen, but he's also having to work with his third OC in three years at UCLA and it will be interesting to see if it takes some time for the Bruins to get in sync on that side of the ball.
Texas A&M enters another year with HC Kevin Sumlin at the helm, and for all the great things he did early on with the program – think the Johnny Manziel days – he's never been that kind to A&M backers on the betting line on the whole. Under Sumlin's leadership, the Aggies are 23-36 ATS, and three straight years of 8-5 SU finishes has the higher ups at the program looking for more.
Two consecutive years of losses in a Bowl game – along with four straight losses to SEC rivals to end 2016 - have started rumours that Sumlin may be on the hot seat should 2017 not go well, and the writing may already be on the wall should he head back home to Kyle Field with an 0-1 SU record.
Sadly, with a 2-11 ATS mark during his time at the helm of the Aggies as underdogs of 7 points or less, there are just too many things pointing towards this being a rough opener for Texas A&M.
So while it may take a bit of time for the Bruins to find their strut on offense, an opener at home is always a positive. Add in the revenge angle favoring them after last year's loss to the Aggies – one that you could argue was symbolic of what was to come for UCLA in 2016 – and Rosen and company should be the ones to send Sumlin and the Aggies in a tailspin in 2017.
UCLA has the more explosive offensive weapons, are 6-1 ATS in their last seven against SEC foes, and the Aggies have been money burners for years with a 5-16 ATS run going entering this season. There still may be a few questions surrounding Rosen and UCLA's prospects this season, but there are so many more for Texas A&M.
With the Aggies in the current position of being a publicly backed underdog according to VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers (about 70% on A&M ATS and more than 90% on the ML), I've got no problem being in the minority here and backing the UCLA Bruins to get their revenge. Rosen knows he's got to show up under the national spotlight, and a strong performance here could easily set a positive tone for the Bruins in 2017.
Best Bet: UCLA -3.5
Sunday's NCAAF Game of the Day: West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech
Covers.com
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (-4, 51.5)
No. 20 West Virginia and 22nd-ranked Virginia Tech each will break in a talented new quarterback when they renew their rivalry by meeting for the first time in 12 years in the season opener on Sunday at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland. Will Grier, who went 6-0 at Florida in 2015 before testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs and being suspended, gets the call for West Virginia and redshirt freshman Josh Jackson starts for the Hokies.
Mountaineers coach Dana Holgorsen told ESPN.com that his job will be to keep the eager Grier calm and relaxed while he lets the game come to him, saying "He’s not going to be able to make up for a year and a half in one game.” Grier won’t have to do it all himself as West Virginia boasts a deep group of running backs that is led by Justin Crawford, who is the leading rusher among those returning in the Big 12 (1,184 yards). Virginia Tech coach Justin Fuente told reporters Jackson has been incredibly consistent and has a great demeanor as he starts his first game in place of Jerod Evans, who left early for the NFL. “I’m very comfortable with the offense,” Jackson, a dual-threat signal-caller from Ann Arbor, Mich. told reporters. “I don’t think we’re going to dial anything back.”
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Hokies as 4-point favorites and that line quickly grew as high as 5, before fading back to the opening number. The total hit the betting board at 55.5 and has been bet down 4.5-points to an even 51. Follow the complete line history here.
WEATHER REPORT: Weather conditions should be perfect for football with sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-70’s at kickoff.
INJURY REPORT:
West Virginia - QB Will Grier (Probable, Suspension), S Dravon Askew-Henry (Probable, Knee), WR Marcus Simms (Eligibility, Suspension), LS David Long Jr. (Early October, Knee)
Virginia Tech - CB Brandon Facyson (Probable, Wrist), WR Caleb Farley (Out For Season, Knee)
WEST VIRGINIA (2016: 10-3 SU, 5-8 ATS, 5-8 O/U): Holgorsen told reporters he likes where his team is, and the seventh-year coach must be especially pleased with the Mountaineers’ depth at running back as sophomores Kennedy McKoy and Martell Pettaway also will play big roles. Grier, who averaged 277 yards through the air in beating Tennessee and Ole Miss back-to-back two years ago, has a strong top target in senior receiver Ka’Raun White (48 catches, 583 yards last year). Senior linebacker Al-Rasheed Benton (80 tackles in 2016) leads the defense along with defensive backs Dravon Askew-Henry and senior Kyzir White.
VIRGINIA TECH (2016: 10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS, 8-6 O/U): The Hokies hope to give Jackson time to develop with strong work from a defense that is led by linebackers Andrew Motuapuaka (senior) and Tremaine Edmunds (junior), who combined for 220 tackles last year, and a solid secondary paced by junior Adonis Alexander. Jackson’s most-experienced target is senior Cam Phillips, who has recorded 165 receptions for 2,063 yards and 10 touchdowns in his career, and senior guard Wyatt Teller anchors the line. Travon McMillian has accumulated 1,713 rushing yards over the last two years and could be pushed by fellow junior Steven Peoples and sophomore Deshawn McClease.
TRENDS
* Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.
* Hokies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Mountaineers last 5 neutral site games.
* Over is 5-1-1 in Hokies last 7 neutral site games.
* Over is 13-3 in Hokies last 16 non-conference games.
* Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Virginia Tech.
CONSENSUS: The underdog Mountaineers are getting 61 percent of the money line action and the Over is picking up 69 percent of the totals wagers.
Virginia Tech battles WVU Sunday
By: StatFox.com
#21 Virginia Tech and #22 West Virginia debut new starting quarterbacks in an opening weekend duel of Top 25 teams.
West Virginia went 10-3 last season, with losses to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Miami (in the Russell Athletic Bowl). Head coach Dana Holgorsen has plenty of talent on offense, including former Florida QB Will Grier taking over under center. The Mountaineers defense held nine opponents to 21 points or fewer last season, and returns a great deal of experience in the linebacking and secondary units. Virginia Tech won ten games in Justin Fuente’s first season. The Hokies fell seven points short against eventual national champions Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, and came back from a 24-0 deficit to defeat Arkansas 35-24 in the Belk Bowl. Virginia Tech has work to do on offense after losing star players at QB, WR and TE. The defense may be able to pick up some of the offense’s slack with a solid linebacking group and one of the best secondaries in the ACC. These teams were both in the Big East from 1991 to 2003, and last met in 2005 when Virginia Tech won 34-17 as 10-point road underdogs. West Virginia is 0-5 SU & ATS as an underdog over the past two seasons, and the Mountaineers are 3-5 SU & 1-7 ATS on neutral fields since 2012. Virginia Tech was 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS as a single-digit favorite last year.
West Virginia averaged 486 yards per game (17th in FBS) last season, but only 31.2 points (50th). Part of the discrepancy was their red-zone inefficiency, as the Mountaineers managed only 4.16 points per red-zone possession (91st in FBS). QB Will Grier is ready to take the reins after transferring from Florida and sitting out last season. In 2015, he won all five of his starts and threw for 1,202 yards, 10 TD and three INT while running for 116 yards and two TD with Florida, but got suspended for PED use halfway through the season. WR Ka’Raun White (48 receptions, 583 yards, 5 TD), brother of former WVU star and 2015 first-round NFL draft pick WR Kevin White, is the top receiving option. RB Justin Crawford (1,252 yards from scrimmage, 5 TD, 7.3 yards per carry) was a stud in his first year in Morgantown and may get even more use in 2017, though the offensive line looks shaky. The Mountaineers defense held opponents to 24.0 points per game (35th in FBS) last season, but has to replace its entire starting defensive line. LBs Al-Rasheed Benton (80 total tackles) and David Long (65 total tackles, 4.5 TFL) are key returning pieces in the second level. Safety Dravon Askew-Henry started every game of his freshman and sophomore years, but missed all of 2016 with a knee injury. He’s the quarterback of the defense and forms a strong tandem with S Kyzir White (3 sacks, 7 TFL), brother of Kevin and Ka’Raun.
Virginia Tech has a lot of talent to replace on offense, and dual-threat QB Josh Jackson will take the starting gig as a redshirt freshman. The running game produced only 4.0 yards per carry (96th in the nation) last season, and while top RB Travon McMillian (796 yards from scrimmage, 10 TD) is back, he’ll face competition for touches. The offensive line should be a strength. WR Isaiah Ford and TE Bucky Hodges, who combined for 1,860 yards from scrimmage and 14 TD last year, are gone. WR Cam Phillips (76 receptions, 983 yards, 5 TD) will be Jackson’s top target with little experience behind him. The Hokies’ 18th-ranked defense returns a wealth of talent. The secondary held opponents to 6.5 yards per pass attempt (20th in FBS) last year and will again be great with the CB trio of Brandon Facyson (11 passes defender), Adonis Alexander (9 passes defended) and Greg Stroman (3 INT) on the outside and S Terrell Edmunds (4 INT) in centerfield. The linebacking unit looks stout with the return of last year’s two top tacklers, Andrew Motuapuaka (114 total tackles, 3 INT, 5.5 TFL) and Tremaine Edmunds (106 total tackles, 4.5 sacks, 18.5 TFL). DE Vinny Mihota (2.5 sacks, 7 TFL) is the lone returning starter on the defensive line, though DTs Ricky Walker (6.5 TFL, 4 pass breakups) and Tim Settle (7 TFL) thrived in part-time roles last season.