NOTRE DAME (10 - 3) at TEXAS (5 - 7) - 9/4/2016, 7:30 PM
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Head-to-Head Series History
NOTRE DAME is 1-0 against the spread versus TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
NOTRE DAME is 1-0 straight up against TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NOTRE DAME vs. TEXAS
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Notre Dame's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Notre Dame's last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Texas's last 9 games
Notre Dame at Texas
Notre Dame: 10-3 ATS in the first half of the season
Texas: 6-9 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less
Notre Dame at Texas
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Two of the country’s most storied programs will take center stage Sunday night when Texas plays host to Notre Dame at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.
As of Saturday afternoon, most betting shops had Notre Dame installed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The total for ‘over/under’ wagers was 59.5 points, while the Longhorns were +145 on the money line (risk $100 to win $145). For first-half bets, the Fighting Irish were favored by 2.5 points with a total of 30.5.
These schools met in last season’s season opener as well. Brian Kelly’s squad coasted to a 38-3 win as a nine-point home ‘chalk.’ The 41 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 48-point total. Notre Dame dominated from start to finish, enjoying a 527-163 advantage in total offense and a 30-8 margin in first downs.
Malik Zaire completed 19-of-22 passes for 313 yards and three TDs without an interception. Josh Adams ran for 49 yards and a pair of scores on just five carries.
Since Charlie Strong took over in 2014, Texas has compiled a 2-3-1 spread record in six games as a home underdog. Meanwhile, Notre Dame owns a 5-9 spread record in 14 games as a road favorite on Kelly’s watch.
Strong enters the season on a boiling hot seat. He has an abysmal 11-14 record since arriving in Austin, going 6-7 and 5-7. The Longhorns started 1-4 last season and went into the Red River Rivalry showdown as a 16.5-point underdog to Oklahoma. However, they put together their best performance of the year and captured a 24-17 win over the previously-unbeaten and 10th-ranked Sooners.
Following a 23-9 home win over Kansas State in its next outing, Texas appeared poised to finished strong. But that notion went out the window in Ames, where the Longhorns fell to 3-5 after taking a 24-0 shellacking at Iowa St.
With a 4-6 record, Texas hosted Texas Tech needing a win to remain bowl eligible. It wasn’t to be, though, as Patrick Mahomes led the Red Raiders to a 48-45 win as one-point road underdogs. In the regular-season finale, the Longhorns went to Waco and shocked 12th-ranked Baylor by a 23-17 count as 21.5-point underdogs. We should note that the Bears were playing their fourth-string QB due to injuries.
Strong’s third team brings back seven starters on offense and eight on defense. The main issue during Strong’s tenure has been inadequate play at the QB position. Tyrone Swoopes and Jerrod Heard are still around, but all indications are that true freshman Shane Buechele is going to be the starter. He left high school early in order to participate in spring practice and get comfortable in new offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilber’s system. Gilber takes over as OC after guiding Tulsa’s offense last year.
Texas was deplorable on defense last year, especially for a unit being directed by Strong, who was a defensive whiz in various defensive coordinator roles across the SEC for two decades before landing his first head-coaching gig at Louisville. The Longhorns gave up 30.3 points per game last season, but it has seven of its top nine tacklers back.
This unit will be led by sophomore LB Malik Jefferson, who garnered Big Defensive Freshman of the Year honors in ’15. Jefferson recorded 61 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, three passes broken up and six QB hurries.
Notre Dame endured a horrible rash of season-ending injuries to key players last year. Nevertheless, the Irish went into the regular-season finale at Stanford ranked fourth in the nation and clearly in the mix for a College Football Playoff berth. It wasn’t to be, however, as the Cardinal won a 38-36 decision.
Then at the Fiesta Bowl, Ohio State beat Notre Dame by a 44-28 count as a 6.5-point favorite. It was a disappointing end to the year but considering the circumstances (injuries), there was no shame whatsoever in a 10-3 SU record and a 8-5 ATS ledger. The Irish return four starters on offense and five on defense.
The QB situation is unsettled, but that’s a good thing in this instance. Zaire went down with a season-ending injury one week after looking so sharp in the easy win over Texas. DeShone Kizer stepped in as a freshman and played well. He completed 211-of-335 passes (63.0%) for 2,884 yards with a 21/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The dual-threat QB also rushed for 520 yards and 10 TDs.
Zaire led the Irish to a 31-28 win over LSU at the Music City Bowl two seasons ago. Then before getting injured at Virginia in Week 2 of last year, he had connected on 26-of-40 throws (65.0%) for 428 yards and four TDs without an interception.
Kelly has yet to announce a starter. Obviously, Kelly is confident in both players and I would expect both to see playing time.
Most of the WR group has departed, including Will Fuller and Chris Brown. Torii Hunter Jr. is the leading returning receiver after catching 28 balls for 363 yards and two TDs. Leading rusher C.J. Prosise is also gone, but Josh Adams is back following a year in which he ran for 835 yards and six TDs while averaging 7.1 YPC.
Notre Dame took a big hit a few weeks ago when senior free safety Max Redfield was dismissed from the program following an arrest on felony charges. Redfield was the team’s leading returning tackler after making 64 stops in ’15. Without him, the Irish only has one of its top eight returning tacklers.
Also, second-string cornerback Devin Butler is out due to a suspension. He had 11 tackles and a pair of passes broken up in ’15. Starting sophomore TE Alize Jones is done for the year due to academic issues. Jones had 13 receptions for 190 yards in ’15.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Toledo QB Logan Woodside sparked his team to an impressive 31-10 win at Arkansas State as a 3.5-point underdog Friday night in Jonesboro. Woodside connected on 23-of-31 passes for 371 yards and three TDs without an interception.
Mississippi State has to take Week 1 honors for the most pathetic performance. The Bulldogs lost outright at home to South Alabama, 21-20. A chip-shot field goal attempt with nine seconds left hit the cross bar, allowing the Jaguars to win outright as 28-point underdogs. Money-line backers at 5Dimes.eu cashed a monster 30/1 ticket.
Is Houston the hottest program in the country? The Cougars captured a 33-23 win over Oklahoma as 13.5-point underdogs, hooking up money-line supporters with a beautiful +450 payout (risk $100 to win $450). They are now an instant contender for a berth in the CFP if they can run the table. Tom Herman’s team certainly has a number of tests in an underrated AAC, but it also gets a Nov. 17 home game against a Louisville squad that I expect to be a Top-15 type of team this year. As long as Oklahoma has a 10-win season and Louisville is an 8-or-9-win squad, Houston will be in the CFP if it goes 13-0 and wins the AAC. Trust me.
Another nice money-line winner came Friday when Army went to Philadelphia and pulled a 28-13 upset over Temple as a 14.5-point underdog. The Black Knights delivered a +475 payout to their supporters.
NCAAF Game of the Day: Notre Dame at Texas
By Covers.com
No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Texas Longhorns (+3.5, 59)
Notre Dame is heading into another season with National Championship aspirations and has a pair of quarterbacks leading what should be an explosive offense. Texas, which hosts the ninth-ranked Fighting Irish in the season opener on Sunday, is hoping to bounce back from a losing season and is motivated to improve.
Notre Dame’s two regular-season losses last year came by a total of four points, and the team still had a chance to go to the College Football Playoff until falling 38-36 to Stanford in the regular-season finale. The Fighting Irish began 2015 with Malik Zaire under center but watched him go down with a fractured ankle in Week 2, leading to a strong effort from DeShone Kizer the rest of the way and a battle throughout camp that has yet to resolve itself. The Longhorns opened up their own competition at quarterback in camp and declared a winner between senior Tyrone Swoopes and freshman Shane Buechele, though they don’t plan on letting the rest of the world know until Sunday. “It's just about being consistent and being progressive, and be able to know and execute,” Texas offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert told reporters of the quarterback battle. “It's like any offense - if you execute it at a high level, if you do your job at a high level, then the majority of the time you're the guy.”
LINE HISTORY: The Irish opened as 4.5-point road favorites for their season opener, but since then the line has moved slightly in the Longhorns favor. The current number is Notre Dame -3.5. As for the total, it has been bet down slightly since opening at 60 and is currently sitting at 59. Check out the complete line history here.
WEATHER REPORT: There is a 20 percent chance of rain and a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast during the game. There will also be a five-to-six mile per hour wind gusting towards the northwest corner of the stadium.
INJURY REPORT:
Notre Dame - DL J. Haynes (questionable Sunday, ankle), CB A. White (questionable Sunday, possible suspension), LB T. Coney (questionable Sunday, possible suspension), WR K. Stepherson (questionable Sunday, possible suspension), RB D. Williams (questionable Sunday, possible suspension), RB J. Brent (out Sunday, foot), CB D. Butler (out Saturday, suspension), TE A. Jones (out Sunday, Academics).
Texas - OL Z. Shackelford (probable Sunday, undisclosed), RB C. Warren III (probable Sunday, ankle), RB D. Foreman (questionable Sunday, hamstring), OL B. Major (out Sunday, finger), RB R. Benard (out Sunday, knee), WR L. Joe (out Saturday, hamstring), WR D. McNeal (out Sunday, suspension).
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Embarrassing 38-3 season-opening loss last year to the Irish figures to have the Longhorns fully focused in this re-match. The fact that freshmen made a total of 77 starts for Texas last season brings an influx of youthful experience in 2016. With head coach Charlie Strorg just 11-14 in his first two seasons with UT, expect a big effort from the Steers tonight." - Covers Expert Marc Lawrence.
ABOUT NOTRE DAME (2015: 10-3): Zaire’s lone full game last season was the opener at home against Texas, during which he completed 19-of-22 passes for 313 yards and three touchdowns in a 38-3 thrashing. Kizer ended up with 21 passing TDs and 10 rushing scores in a breakout campaign and both quarterbacks are expected to go in Week 1, though the team has yet to decide which will take the first snap. “Haven't figured that out yet,” Fighting Irish coach Brian Kelly told reporters. “I mean, they’re both doing the same things that we've been asking them to do, and that may be something that we discuss in the locker room. It's not really an issue for us right now. It's not something that we've contemplated.”
ABOUT TEXAS (2015: 5-7): The Longhorns look like an improved team after closing the 2015 campaign with a win at Baylor and bringing in another top recruiting class. “The attitude of the team right now – offense, defense, special teams – is something we didn't have last year, in my opinion,” Texas defensive coordinator Vance Bedford told reporters. “Guys are focused, ready to go. They're ready to prove that last year was a fluke.” Swoopes got the start last season at Notre Dame and went 7-of-22 for 93 yards as the Longhorns were outgained 527-163.
TRENDS:
* Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in its last five games in September.
* Texas is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games versus Independent opponents.
* Over is 8-2 in Notre Dame's last 10 road games.
* Under is 23-10 in Texas' last 33 games overall.
CONSENSUS: The public is laying the points with the favorite, with 58 percent of wagers on Notre Dame. When it comes to the total, bettors are on the under with 62 percent of wagers on it.
NCAAF: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Notre Dame at Texas
Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly will have QB's DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire split duties against UT. At this writing, Texas coach Charlie Strong isn't saying but with Senior Tyrone Swoopes not showing much the past two season's it's likely QB freshman Shane Buechele will be taking snaps.
Last year, the Irish welcomed Texas to South Bend to open the campaign and laid a 38-3 beatdown on the Longhorns as 10 point home favorites with Zaire completing 19-for-22 for 313 yards and three majors. Irish losing a ton of talent off last year's squad including their top rusher along with three leading receivers no likely repeat blowout when the schools kick things off in Austin.
According to current odds at Sports Interaction the Irish are -3.0 point favorites. Trends of interest: Longhorns have traditionally started the season off on the right foot, with the team going 12-1 SU in their past 13 season opener's with an 8-5 record against the betting line. Notre Dame 5-8 at the betting window as road favorites since coach Kelly's arrival.
College Football Week 1
Texas is 11-14 under Strong, 3-7-1 vs spread as dogs; they lost 38-3 (+9) LY in South Bend, outgained 527-163- they moved former QB Heard (10 starts) to WR, haven’t decided between Buechele/Swoopes as their QB. Longhorns have 14 starters back, 3 on OL. Notre Dame is just 5-9 as road favorite under Kelly; they lost 13 starters, have just 27 returning starts on OL, but they do have quality depth at QB.
Armadillosports.com
Big 12 Report - Week 1
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Notre Dame at Texas
Your wife or girlfriend will be so excited to see you on the couch, feet propped up with a beer watching more college football Sunday night after a full slate of games Saturday. If she took the time to sit and watch with you, she would see an Irish offensive attack which should be very dangerous. RBs Tarean Folston and Josh Adams are strong tailbacks running behind an experience veteran offensive line. QBs Malik Zaire and DeShone Kizer are also fabulous with their arm as well as their feet, and they'll give the Texas defense fits all night. Still, the Longhorns finally have the pieces in place in their backfield to fire right back at the Notre Dame defense with D'Onta Foreman and Chris Warren II running hard. Freshman QB Shane Buechele, son of former Texas Rangers third baseman Steve Buechele, makes his first start in a tough situation with no tune-up game to get situated. Can he handle the national pressure and spotlight in a marquee game? That's the biggest question. If so, the eyes of Texas will be smiling on him.
Sunday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
Notre Dame (-4) vs. Texas: Total 60
Two storied programs meet under the Sunday Night lights in Week 1 in what should be a highly entertaining game between two programs with big aspirations in 2016.
Notre Dame would love to find themselves in the playoff discussion at year's end and Texas would love to be in the mix for a Big 12 title and then go from there.
It's the Longhorns who come in as small home dogs for this game and for their head coach Charlie Strong who is rumored to be on a very hot seat, a home underdog win in Game 1 would be a great way for Texas to start 2016.
The Irish are expecting big things this season because both Malik Zaire and Deshone Kizer are back at QB, but as talented as those guys are, they are still only one position on the field. W
homever Brian Kelly decides to go with for the bulk of this game will make plays for Notre Dame, but I'm not sure it will be enough.
Early money on this game would disagree with that statement as they've pushed the spread up from -3 to it's current number, but the bulk of that line of thinking comes from the 38-3 drubbing Notre Dame put on a very young Texas team a year ago.
Texas went through their growing pains in 2015 as they finished with a 5-7 SU record, but the payoff for those losses and mistakes should come this year and next.
All of those young freshmen and sophomores that got thrown into the fire in 2015 will be much better players for Strong's team this season and that begins in Week 1.
It won't happen all at once for Texas, but they'd love to exact some revenge on the Irish for last year's blowout loss, and bettors shouldn't be surprised if it happens.
However, now that this spread has been bet up off of that key number of -3, taking the points with Texas with the idea that their is still a chance they lose outright becomes more attractive.
This contest should be tight throughout , and with the home field advantage on the side of the Longhorns this time around, we could easily see this game be decided by a field goal.
Take Texas +4