What Bettors Need to Know: Thursday's College Football Action
By Covers.com
Virginia Tech Hokies at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+1, 48.5)
THE STORY: The ACC’s Coastal Division likely will be decided at Bobby Dodd Stadium, when No. 9 Virginia Tech visits No. 19 Georgia Tech Thursday night. The winner of this matchup has won the division every year since divisional play began in 2005. The Hokies own four of those victories, including 28-21 last year in Blacksburg, Va., and lead the all-time series 5-3. The Yellow Jackets rank second in the ACC in scoring (37.6), while the Hokies allow an ACC-low 15.4 points per game. Both teams were off last Saturday.
LINE MOVES: This ACC battle opened at some books as a pick 'em. Georgia Tech then moved to a slight 1.5-point favorite before action on the Hokies flipped the home side to +1. The total opened at 49 and has since moved to 49.5.
WEATHER: Game-time temperatures will dip into the low 40s, with winds blowing NW at speeds of up to 8 mph.
ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (8-1, 4-1 ACC, 2-7 ATS): Nine players have intercepted passes for the Hokies, who also average three sacks per game. Running back David Wilson has rushed for more than 100 yards in six straight games - the longest such streak in Frank Beamer’s 25 seasons as head coach. Quarterback Logan Thomas (6-6, 254) has thrown for 1,934 yards and run for 285 more while accounting for 17 TDs. Jack Tyler will start at MLB over Barquell Rivers because Tyler’s speed gives the Hokies a better chance of stopping Georgia Tech’s option attack.
ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (7-2, 4-2 ACC, 5-3-1 ATS): The Yellow Jackets rank second nationally in rushing (328.0). Quarterback Tevin Washington bounced back from a string of poor outings with a terrific overall game in the upset of Clemson. He made good option reads, threw the ball fairly well and ran for 176 yards, most ever by a Tech QB. Receiver Stephen Hill is averaging 30.4 yards a catch, which leads the nation. He has a knack for making spectacular catches, but drops some easy ones. The defense has gotten a spark from CB Jemea Thomas, who had two INTs, a forced fumble and two pass breakups against the Tigers.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The Jackets are 7-4 vs. ranked teams under coach Paul Johnson.
2. The Hokies rank seventh nationally in rushing defense (86.3).
3. The Hokies are 17-5 on Thursday Night Football, the Jackets 11-13.
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Hokies are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
PREDICTION: Georgia Tech 27, Virginia Tech 24 – The Jackets got their confidence back by upsetting Clemson and will feed off a raucous home crowd.
Houston Cougars at Tulane Green Wave (+34, 71)
THE STORY: Undefeated Houston is off to its best start in school history, and sixth-year senior Case Keenum is a big reason why. After breaking former Hawaii star Timmy Chang’s NCAA record for career passing yardage, Keenum is now the NCAA’s career leader in every major passing category. The 11th-ranked Cougars’ road matchup with Tulane is their last tuneup before closing the regular season with tough games against SMU and Tulsa, which will decide the Conference USA West Division crown. Houston has won eight straight in this series and the last three matchups at the Superdome.
LINE MOVES: The Cougars opened as 34-point favorites and have remained steady, with a few 34.5 on the market. The total opened at 71 points and has also stayed put at most books.
ABOUT HOUSTON (9-0, 5-0 Conference USA, 7-2 ATS): In their 56-13 blowout victory at UAB last weekend, the Cougars topped 50 points for the fourth straight game and fifth time this season. Keenum threw for 407 yards in the win and leads the nation with 3,626 passing yards and 34 touchdowns. Lost in the shuffle of Houston’s pass-happy offense, running back Michael Hayes has racked up 553 yards on the ground and is tied with Charles Sims with a team-best seven rushing scores. The Cougars lead the country in total offense, passing offense and scoring offense.
ABOUT TULANE (2-8, 1-5 Conference USA, 3-7 ATS): Since a season-opening win over Southeastern Louisiana, the Green Wave have lost their last four home games by an average of 21 points. Last week, Tulane dropped its seventh straight game overall and gave up three passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns in a 45-24 loss at SMU. Coach Bob Toledo stepped down three weeks ago, but the Green Wave haven’t improved much under interim coach Mark Hutson, losing in blowout fashion to Memphis, East Carolina and SMU.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Houston’s eight consecutive wins in this series have come by an average score of 39-16.
2. "I'm not going to fully enjoy it and celebrate it until after the season,” Keenum said this week about all his records. “Hopefully, I will have a lot more to celebrate after the season than just the records."
3. Tulane ranks 102nd nationally in total defense (423 yards per game).
TRENDS:
* Cougars are 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Tulane.
* Favorite is 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
PREDICTION: Houston 59, Tulane 17. The Cougars’ fast-paced offense will look even more deadly on turf against one of the weaker defenses in the country.
NCAAF Week 11
Central Michigan won last four games vs Ohio, with three of four wins by 10+ points; Bobcats haven't been here since '05. Five of last six series games were decided by 10+ points. Ohio won last two games, scoring 37-35 points; they're 7-4 in last 11 games as road favorite. Chippewas are 2-7 vs I-A teams; they're 1-6 as underdogs this year, but are 4-1 vs spread in last five games as a home dog. Seven of their first ten games vs I-A teams this season were on road. Favorites are 4-2 vs spread in last six series games. MAC home underdogs are 10-5 vs spread.
Houston won its last eight games vs Tulane (7-1 vs spread); they won last four visits to Superdome, by 2-21-24-28 points. Indoor game good for Houston passing game and prolific QB Keenum; Cougars are 8-0, 7-1 vs spread; they're 2-2 as road favorites this year, winning by 25-1-7-43 points. Tulane is 3-7 vs spread in last ten games as home underdog- they are 0-3 since Toledo was fired, losing by 16-21-21 points. C-USA faves of 20+ points are 6-4 vs spread, 2-0 on road.
Underdogs covered last five Virginia Tech-Georgia Tech games; Hokies won five of last seven series games, with Jackets ranked #19/#24 in two games they beat VT. Last three series game were decided by 7 points or less. Hokies are 8-1; this is first time in '11 they've been favored by less than 7 points- they're 4-0 on road, winning by 7 at E. Carolina, by 20 at Marshall, by 21 at Wake, by 4 at Duke. Home teams are 7-3 vs spread in ACC games where spread was less than 5 points. Jackets won all four of its lined home games, upsetting Clemson here last time out.