Southern California vs. California: What Bettors Need to Know
Southern California Trojans vs. California Golden Bears (+3, 58.5)
THE STORY: After falling apart in the second half of its 43-15 loss at Oregon last week, California is eager to move forward, starting this Thursday against visiting Southern Cal. The game features two of the top wide receivers in the country in the Trojans’ Robert Woods and the Golden Bears’ Keenan Allen.
Southern Cal figures to throw early and often against California, which will likely be without starting cornerback Marc Anthony (shoulder). True freshman Stefan McClure will start if Anthony is out. California won its first three non-conference games before losing at Washington and Oregon, while Southern Cal is well-rested after its bye week.
WEATHER: The weather at AT&T Park is expected to be perfect for football. With Memorial Stadium undergoing renovations, USC and Cal will play in temperatures in the mid 60s with a slight 6-mph breeze blowing out to center field, which means it will go sideline to sideline Thursday.
LINE MOVES: Southern Cal opened as high as -4 and has been bet down to -3. The total opened at 57 and has been bet up to 58.
ABOUT SOUTHERN CAL (4-1, 2-1 Pac-12 South, 2-3 ATS): Woods leads the nation in receptions at 13.6 per game, and quarterback Matt Barkley has thrown for 1,587 yards and 14 touchdowns with four interceptions. Coach Lane Kiffin has been disappointed with the Trojans’ running game, and he’s hinted that former wide receiver George Farmer could make his debut at tailback against the Golden Bears. If he doesn’t play Thursday, the highly touted freshman will likely redshirt this season. Kiffin called cornerback Isiah Wiley the MVP of last Sunday’s practice, and the junior transfer could get his first start against California.
ABOUT CALIFORNIA (3-2, 0-2 Pac-12 North, 2-3 ATS): Quarterback Zach Maynard has thrown 11 touchdowns and just three interceptions, but he ranks 10th in the Pac-12 in pass efficiency and completion percentage. After a promising start to the season, Maynard looked rattled against Oregon. Allen leads California in the key receiving categories, and he’s sixth nationally in receiving yards with 134 yards per game. Linebackers Mychal Kendricks and D.J. Holt lead the California defense, which was strong against the run until last week, when Oregon’s LaMichael James rushed for 239 yards.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Since 1955, Southern Cal is 53-16-1 after open dates.
2. Southern Cal owns a seven-game winning streak over the Golden Bears - Cal has averaged just 10 points in each of those losses - and the Trojans have won nine of the last 10 meetings.
3. During California coach Jeff Tedford’s final four seasons as the offensive coordinator at Fresno State (1994-97), Kiffin played quarterback and worked as a student assistant coach for the Bulldogs.
TRENDS:
* Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
PREDICTION: Southern Cal 41, California 34. The shaky California pass defense will be overmatched by Barkley and his talented group of receivers, but the Trojans will struggle to put away the persistent Golden Bears.
USC Trojans In Thursday Tussle At Cal Bears
By: Dave Consolazio
The California Bears will play in their second straight Thursday night game when they host the USC Trojans this week.
Thursday night’s game is set to start at 9:00 p.m. (ET) and will be televised nationally on ESPN. USC is currently a 3½-point favorite on the Don Best odds screen.
While USC is still ineligible for postseason play due to the sanctions placed on the program by the NCAA, that hasn’t stopped the the Trojans from playing for Pac-12 bragging rights. A win this week would bring the Trojans to 3-1 in conference play, while California is still looking for its first conference win at 0-2 so far.
Southern Cal (4-1) didn’t play a whole lot of defense in a 48-41 shootout win over Arizona, but the Trojans did impose their will offensively. Robert Woods continued his assault on the USC record books with 14 catches for 255 yards and two touchdowns.
Woods is well on his way to breaking Keyshawn Johnson’s single-season school records for catches and yardage.
Woods and quarterback Matt Barkley’s magnificent play this season have helped USC get out to a 4-1 start, but all four of those wins have come at home. The Trojans fell apart in the second half at Arizona State, and will need to have more composure in their second road game of the season this week.
USC is 16-6 straight up in their last 22 road games, but just 5-12 against the spread.
California (3-2) started the season 3-0, but has lost two straight road games in Pac-12 play against Washington and Oregon. The Bears had no answer for LaMichael James last week, who rushed for 239 yards on 30 carries before leaving the game with an injury.
Junior quarterback Zach Maynard has done a solid job in his first season as Cal’s full-time starter, passing for 1291 yards and 11 touchdowns through the first five games of the season. With USC struggling in pass coverage this year (giving up 267.2 passing yards per game), Maynard could have another big game Thursday night.
Over the last decade, USC has dominated this in-state rivalry, holding a 9-1 SU edge over the Bears since 2001. The Trojans have won seven straight over Cal, and are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings vs. the Bears.
The total has gone ‘under’ in six of the last seven games between USC and Cal, but that trend may not continue this year. Both teams have struggled defensively this season, and are each 3-2 on the ‘over’ this season.
Last year at the Coliseum, the Trojans beat the Bears 48-14, sending the score ‘over’ the closing 54-point total.
NCAAF Preview
Air Force won three of last four games vs San Diego State; underdogs are 9-4 vs spread in last 13 series games. Aztecs lost last three visits here, by 12-32-12 points- they're 5-3 in last eight games as road dogs, but lost last two games 28-7 at Michigan (+10), 27-14 at home to TCU (+4). Air Force is 1-2 vs I-A teams, allowing 42.7 ppg- their only I-A win was vs Navy in OT. Falcons are 3-6 in last nine games as a home favorite.
Cal is playing home games in San Francisco this year; their home field is being refurbished. USC won its last seven games vs Cal covering five of last six- they won last two meetings 30-3/48-14. Trojans are 4-3 as fave of less than 10 points in this series. USC is 5-12 in its last 17 games as a road favorite- they lost only road game this year 43-22 at Arizona State. Pac-12 home teams are 6-9 vs spread in conference play this year; home dogs are 1-3. Bears allowed 33-31-43 points in last three games against I-A teams, losing last two weeks, 31-23 at Washington, 43-15 at Oregon.
USC at California Preview
By Christian Alexander
If there was ever a night that exemplified that a game can be made up of two completely different halves, it was last Thursday. Getting 24 1/2 points, California had a 15-14 halftime lead at Oregon, and needless to say, I was feeling pretty good. Then they kicked off the second half.
At that point, I still expected Oregon to win the game – even anticipated they would win by double digits. What I didn’t expect was that the Ducks would win the second half by a score of 29-0, resulting in a 43-15 win. That not made a loser out of Cal, but also the players who had backed the Golden Bears.
There were issues with Cal’s offense, which can only partially explained by the fact that QB Zach Maynard suffered quad contusion early in the game and was eventually replaced in the second half.
The defense also had issues – as defenses often do when they play Oregon. Cal entered the night with the 9th ranked run defense, with just 313 yards and two TDs allowed in their first four games. The Ducks sure had fun with that stat as Kenjon Barner and LaMichael James led a ground attack that posted 365 yards and three touchdowns.
Coach Jeff Tedford certainly couldn’t blame the loss on turnovers as Cal actually won that battle last Thursday. It was just the eighth time that Tedford had lost the game while winning the turnover battle. The Bears are now 42-8 when they win the turnover battle.
The loss brings me depressingly right back to sea level (3-3) and now we must look ahead to this Thursday where we once again will watch Cal. This time the Bears will be at home in Berkeley to face Southern Cal.
Actually, “home” isn’t exactly accurate as this game will be played at AT&T Park in San Francisco due to the fact that Cal’s regular home, Memorial Stadium in Berkeley, is undergoing a face lift. Cal has only played at AT&T Park once, the same number of times USC has played there (2009 Emerald Bowl).
The good news is the field at AT&T Park has been resodded and so the two teams won’t have to deal with parts of a baseball infield when they play this game in the regular season home of the San Francisco Giants. For those looking for a random angle to play, be aware that the Bears are 31-18-2 in games played in stadiums that also feature baseball.
No matter the venue, Cal knows it must improve upon its effort from last Thursday to win this game. It certainly won’t be easy against a Southern Cal offense that appears to be firing on all cylinders at the moment. In particular, the Trojans passing game has been on fire, averaging 317 yards per game this season. For all the talk about Cal WRs Marvin Jones and Kennan Allen, Southern Cal might have a pair just as good in WRs Marqise Lee and Robert Woods.
Woods has been especially impressive as the Trojans offense seems to flow through him quite a bit. The sophomore, who leads the Pac-12 in yards (747) and catches (55 catches) has been dealing with a sprained ankle lately but will be good to go this Thursday. Expect USC QB Matt Barkley to look for his favorite target early and often.
There will be plenty of pressure on Cal's 3-4 defensive formation to slow down the Trojans and specifically on the secondary and CB Stefan McClure who will be marking Woods most of the game.
As mentioned, the Cal offense will have to step up as well. QB Zach Maynard is only completing 51.4% of his passes and to win this Thursday, he must be sharper. His completion percentage will no doubt depend largely on how much protection his line can give him – which could be a challenge against USC DLs DaJohn Harris and Nick Perry who are in the Pac-12's top 10 in tackles for losses.
One thing is for sure, Cal probably won’t be looking at too much tape from the 2010 game between these two. In that contest, the Trojans jumped out to a 42-0 halftime lead and cruised in the second half to a 48-14 win.
Tedford just can’t seem to solve the Trojans as he is 1-8 against USC, with a combined score of 261-135 in those nine games. Tedford's lone win came in 2003 when Cal dropped USC, 34-31, in triple OT. USC probably doesn’t have too many good memories coming into this game but that has nothing to do with Cal. The last time the Trojans played a conference game on a Thursday night was back in 2008, when they were shocked by Oregon State, 27-21. At the time, USC was #1 in the nation.
Tedford, who coached USC coach Lane Kiffin at Fresno State in the 1990’s, has never started a season 0-3 in the Pac-10 – now Pac-12 – but that is exactly what Cal is facing unless they can win this game Thursday night.