UCLA at Arizona: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
UCLA Bruins at Arizona Wildcats (-4, 62)
THE STORY: It was only a matter of time that Arizona’s failures would cost coach Mike Stoops his job. After five straight losses the ax fell a week ago, ending Stoops’ 7½ years with the program. Stoops had some success but lately failed to maintain the program’s image, the Desert Swarm defense. Arizona ranks last in the Pac-12 in just about every important defensive category. Defensive coordinator Tim Kish makes his interim-coaching debut against Rick Neuheisel, another coach on the hot seat, when Arizona hosts UCLA in a nationally-televised conference battle in the Desert Thursday night.
LINE MOVES: The Wildcats opened as 3.5-point favorites and have climbed as high as 4.5 The total opened at 61.5 and has risen to 62.
ABOUT UCLA (3-3, 2-1 Pac-12, 1-5 ATS): The Bruins have done more flip-flopping than a GOP presidential candidate lately. Unsettled at quarterback, the Bruins have gone back-and-forth with Kevin Prince and Richard Brehaut. That rotation has certainly come to an end following the broken leg Brehaut suffered last game. Prince will be back under center against the Wildcats after leading UCLA to a come-from-behind 28-25 win over Washington State in its last outing. But no matter who’s throwing the ball, the Bruins would like to run behind Johnathan Franklin (2,092 career yards) and Derrick Coleman, who have powered UCLA to the 28th best rushing attack in the country. They’ve scored at least one rushing TD in 12 straight games.
ABOUT ARIZONA (1-5, 0-4 Pac-12, 2-4 ATS): The Wildcats seemed headed toward the top of the conference after starting last season 7-1. But since then Arizona has lost 10 of its last 11 games. A 37-27 setback to a then-winless Oregon State team on Oct. 8 proved to be Stoops’ last stand. The Wildcats have beaten UCLA the last three times in the desert and still have a solid offense led by quarterback Nick Foles and his talented receivers. Foles has thrown for 2,250 yards on the season, second best in the nation, and 15 touchdowns. Arizona’s running-game, however, is a mess, a victim of a young offensive line. It ranks next-to-last in the country averaging just 71 yards a game.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Arizona defeated UCLA 29-21 last season in a game played at the Rose Bowl. The Wildcats have won the last four in the series.
2. Explosive Wildcat WR Juron Criner is questionable with a knee sprain.
3. The Wildcats have surrendered at least 37 points in its last five games.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Bruins are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Bruins are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in Arizona.
PREDICTION: Arizona 31, UCLA 28 -- Don’t expect too much defense in this one, but Foles should be able to carve up the Bruins in the air in a tight contest at Tucson.
Arizona Wildcats, UCLA Bruins Pac-12 Betting Preview
By: Michael Robinson
Don Best.com
The UCLA Bruins hope their ‘win one, lose one’ pattern doesn’t continue when they visit the struggling Arizona Wildcats on Thursday night. This Pac-12 battle is one of the first games of Week 8 of college football betting.
UCLA opened as very surprising 4-point road ‘dogs, but that quickly got bet down to three at Don Best. The total is still to be released and ESPN will have the 9:00 p.m. (ET) telecast from Arizona Stadium.
The Bruins (3-3 straight up, 1-5 against the spread) have alternated between wins and losses every game this year. The last contest on October 8 was a 28-25 home win over Washington State before the bye, failing to ‘cover’ the 4-point spread.
The 53 combined points scored went ‘under’ the 59½-point total. The ‘under’ is 3-0 in UCLA’s wins this year, with the defense allowing 20.3 PPG. The ‘over’ is 3-0 in the losses, surrendering a giant 44 PPG.
The big news from the Washington State game (besides the win) was the injury to quarterback Richard Brehaut. He broke his leg in the second quarter and is out 3-6 weeks. Former starter Kevin Prince came in to throw for 173 yards, rallying UCLA from an 8-point deficit in the fourth quarter, including the game-winning pass with 3:26 remaining.
The junior Prince was the opening game starter against Houston on Sept. 3 and also versus Texas on Sept. 17. However, he got replaced by Brehaut early in both games, the first due to injury and the second after three, first quarter interceptions.
Prince needs to keep up the momentum from last week and not get hurt with true freshman Brett Hundley the only backup. UCLA’s pistol offense requires running from the quarterback, but that could be toned down this game. Expect the duo of Johnathan Franklin and Derrick Coleman to get most of the carries for the nation’s 28th ranked rushing attack (194.5 YPG).
The Bruins are 1-2 SU and ATS on the road, losing at Houston (38-34) and Stanford (45-19), but beating Oregon State (27-19). They are 1-6 ATS away dating back to last year.
UCLA is 0-4 ATS in its last four Thursday games, last losing at Oregon 60-13 as 26½-point dogs in Oct. 2010. Prince was not surprisingly hurt for that game as injuries have really marred his career.
This is a must-win for UCLA as it’s only a half-game behind Arizona State in the Pac-12 South. Every other division team is winless in the conference besides ineligible USC.
Arizona (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS) is one of the most disappointing teams in college football, with most pundits predicting at least a middle-of-the-pack finish in the Pac-12 South and ahead of UCLA.
The only win this year was the opening game (41-10) over FCS Northern Arizona. There have been five straight losses (1-4 ATS) since with a brutal stretch that included top-10 Oklahoma State, Stanford and Oregon, plus a tough one at USC.
Coach Mike Stoops survived the first four losses, but the administration saw enough after a 37-27 loss at formerly winless Oregon State on October 8. Stoops finished his eight-year Arizona career with a 10-game losing streak (2-8 ATS) against FBS opponents.
Interim coach Tim Kish had the bye week to prepare and the former defensive coordinator has a big challenge. His own defense ranks just 115th in the nation at 487.7 YPG. No team besides Northern Arizona has scored less than 37 points, with the ‘over’ 3-0 in the last three.
Offensively, Nick Foles is second in the country in passing yards (2,255), but the running game is providing no balance at 71.8 YPG, second-worst in the country. UCLA was woeful against Houston’s Case Keenum (30-of-40, 310 yards) and Stanford’s Andrew Luck (23-of-27, 227 yards) and Foles will move the ball with his 71.5 completion percentage.
The hope is that the combination of the new coach and the Thursday night home game will motivate both the players and the fans. Still, it’s surprising the Wildcats opened as over a field goal favorite.
Stoops and Arizona did have success against UCLA, going 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four meetings. Arizona is also 4-0 ATS (3-1 SU) in the last four meetings at home.
Both teams have several players listed as questionable. Arizona receiver Juron Criner (knee) is probable and he’s the second-leading receiver with 340 yards, although the biggest talent.
Weather in the desert should be in the 80s at kickoff, but dip more comfortably into the 70s as the game progresses.
Central Florida at UAB: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Central Florida Knights at UAB Blazers (+16, 44.5)
The winless Blazers host the Knights for a Thursday night, C-USA showdown at Legion Field. Alabama-Birmingham has just one win over UCF in their last seven meetings and is 2-5 against the spread in that span, going back to 2001.
LINE MOVES
Oddsmakers opened with the home side set as a two-touchdown underdog, with money on UCF pushing the spread as high as 16.5. The total opened at 44 and has climbed as high as 45.5.
KNIGHT AND DAY
Central Florida boasts one of the best defenses in the country, currently ranked No. 3 in yards allowed and passing defense. However, that stop unit took one on the chin in last week’s 38-17 loss to Southern Methodist.
The Knights allowed SMU to pass for 358 yards and two touchdowns through the air – the most amount of passing yardage allowed to a conference foe since facing Houston in 2009.
"This is very frustrating because we're not used to this," cornerback Josh Robinson told the Central Florida Future. "We expect more out of our defense."
Luckily for UCF, the Blazers passing game isn’t as potent as SMU’s. Alabama-Birmingham puts up just over 209 passing yards per game and has a TD-to-INT count of 2-to-8 this season.
Blazers quarterback Bryan Ellis threw two scores and two picks in his return from a concussion in a 37-20 loss to Tulsa last weekend. Ellis had been out since September 24, with backup Jonathan Perry under center in his absence.
DEAD WITHOUT SHED
The Blazers will be without leading rusher Pat Shed Thursday. He injured his knee in the loss to Tulsa last week and will definitely not play against the Knights.
Shed leads UAB with 223 yards on the ground and one touchdown. He’s also caught the ball 23 times for 146 yards receiving.
Sophomore running back Greg Franklin will get the majority of carries in his place. Franklin has rushed 20 times for 129 yards this season.
QB CONTROVERSY
There is trouble brewing in Orlando at the quarterback position.
Starter Jeff Godfrey is under fire for his run-first mentality, with the local media and UCF faithful believing redshirt freshman Blake Bortles is the better fit for the Knights' pocket-passing schemes, and that the speedy Godfrey should be moved to receiver.
Godfrey is passing for 186.3 yards an outing while rushing for a total of 224 yards and eight touchdowns – the most of any QB in C-USA. He passed for 231 yards versus SMU, throwing one touchdown before giving way to Bortles, who went 9 for 12 for 118 yards and a score. The combined 349 yards passing was the most from UCF since 2003.
Bortles is also the prototypical QB, standing 6-foot-4 and 223 pounds, while Godfrey is only 5-foot-11 and 182 pounds soaking wet. However, despite the brewing controversy, UCF head coach George O'Leary confirmed that this is still Godfrey’s team.
"Jeff made a lot of good throws and made some yards with his feet," O'Leary told reporters. "But Blake has more opportunity to throw down the field. We have to sit down and see what the best situation for our team. But we have to get Blake in more often."
Alabama-Birmingham shouldn’t be too much of a test for whichever QB is calling the plays Thursday. The Blazers rank 111th in the land in pass defense, giving up an average of 292.2 yards through the air.
Spread it on
There is betting value in an 0-6 Blazers squad, especially up against a UCF team that is 0-4 ATS in their last four outings.
Despite a big zero in the win column, UAB has covered the spread the last four games, facing an average spread of nearly +18 in that stretch. The Blazers have dropped the last four games by an average margin of 10.25 points.
But a short week of practice may slow down the money train for UAB backers. In their last six Thursday contests, the Blazers are only 1-4-1 ATS.
"It's kind of an awkward week with preparation all around," head coach Neil Callaway told the media. "Technically, today is Thursday in terms of game preparation. We did a little more just because of time. We'll come back out tomorrow and treat it pretty much like a Friday."
Callaway is on the hot seat at Alabama-Birmingham after the team’s poor start. He’s 15-38 since taking over the Blazers in 2007. Plenty of fans are calling for his job heading into this Thursday’s action.
TRENDS
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Knights are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Knights are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as favorites.
* Blazers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven conference games.
UCLA at Arizona Preview
By Christian Alexander
VegasInsider.com
It was a nice way to kick a two-game losing streak last Thursday night. I backed San Diego State getting seven points on the road at Air Force and the Aztecs pulled away in the second half for a 14-point outright win over the Falcons. It doesn’t seem to happen often, but it sure is nice not to have to sweat out every win.
Speaking of sweating, Arizona coach Mike Stoops probably had a pretty thick layer of perspiration on him after losing to the previously winless Oregon State Beavers 37-27 on October 8. That loss pushed the Wildcats losing streak against FBS teams to 10 in a row and, if possible, made the Stoops grip on the head coaching job even more tenuous. But even a coach with the last name Stoops is only given so much rope and Arizona Athletic Director Greg Byrne decided he had seen enough. On the Monday after the loss to the Beavers, Stoops was fired.
For now, Tim Kish, who has been with Arizona since 2004 and was most recently the defensive coordinator, will serve as the interim head coach. Byrne is expected to launch a full court press to get Boise State’s Chris Petersen – and the Wildcats certainly won’t be the first program to come knocking on Petersen’s door.
Stoops could blame his firing on several factors and certainly injuries didn’t help. Arizona hasn’t gotten a full season from many of the their best players in 2011 including S Adam Hall, LB Jake Fischer, CB Jonathan McKnight, DT Justin Washington and WR Juron Criner and make no mistake, that type of playmaking ability is very difficult to replace.
However, ultimately Stoops only has himself to blame. The losing streak aside, it’s hard to survive with the 115th ranked defense in the land…especially when you are known as a defensive-minded coach.
Following Stoops dismissal, Arizona had a bye week and now is ready to return to the field this Thursday night when they host UCLA. Rick Neuheisel might want to the Bruins ship sailing in the right direction in a hurry or he could well find himself in the unemployment line with Mike Stoops. The former quarterback for the 1984 UCLA team that went to the Rose Bowl, Neuheisel was brought back to L.A. to get UCLA back to winning ways. It certainly hasn’t been easy so far as the Bruins haven’t finished better than eighth in the Pac-10 in Neuheisel’s first three seasons.
Thus far in 2011 UCLA is sitting at 3-3 but the wins have only come against San Jose State (3-4), Oregon State (1-5), and Washington State (3-3) – hardly impressive. The reality is, beating a 1-5 Arizona team won’t do much to change people’s opinion that UCLA is an average-to-poor team but should they lose, Neuheisel could be a dead man walking.
For the Bruins to win this Thursday, the will have to get a top effort from their defense – something that certainly hasn’t happened much this season. UCLA currently sports the 90th ranked defense in the land and have surrendered 38 or more points in half their games. Now they get to tangle with QB Nick Foles and an Arizona offense ranked 25th in the nation.
The senior QB has pretty much been the entire story for Arizona, throwing for 2,255 yards with 15 TDs and just four INTs while ranking second nationally in passing with an average of 375.8 yards per game. Foles, who is one of 10 finalists for the Johnny Unitas Award for QBs, had to drool this week as he looked at tape of a UCLA defense which has given up an average of 231.8 passing yards per game, tied for 76th in the nation.
UCLA will counter with QB Kevin Prince, who was the starter at the beginning of the season, but then lost the job to QB Richard Brehaut. Starting in four of the Bruins' first six games, Brehaut passed for 907 yards and six touchdowns without an interception before breaking his leg against Washington State.
There is some good news on the medical front for the Wildcats as it appears they will have the services of 2010 Freshman All-American DT Justin Washington (knee) and WR Juron Criner (knee) this week.
Additionally, the Wildcats have to be bolstered by the fact they won four in a row against UCLA, not allowing more than 300 yards in any game.
UCLA is 1-4 against the spread in 2011 while Arizona is only slightly better with a 2-4 ATS mark.