Thursday's college football action: What bettors need to know
By Covers.com
Virginia Cavaliers at Miami Hurricanes (-13.5, 48.5)
THE STORY: Virginia and Miami share a common victory over previously undefeated Georgia Tech. Both schools, though, have completely different goals for the second half of the season. The Cavaliers followed up that first win over a top-15 program since 2005 with an offensive hangover in a 28-14 loss to North Carolina State. They play three of their final five games on the road and might need every one to end a three-year postseason drought. The Hurricanes, meanwhile, strung together their first consecutive wins of the season over North Carolina and Georgia Tech. Now that lengthy suspensions are over for players such as defensive end Olivier Vernon, Miami has a realistic shot at finishing third in the ACC.
LINE MOVES: Miami opened as high as -15 at some books but currently sits around -13.5.
WEATHER: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Winds expected between 6-12 mph with a temperature of 78 degrees.
ABOUT VIRGINIA (4-3, 1-2 ACC): The Cavaliers’ two-quarterback system continues to puzzle fans and prevent an offensive rhythm. Michael Rocco and David Watford combined for just 11 completions against North Carolina State and failed to put together a drive of more than eight plays. In total, Virginia gained a season-low 249 yards against the ACC’s fourth-worst defense. The Cavs have just two second-half touchdown passes in conference play, choosing instead to rely on an improving defense and a power running game. The quarterbacks, though, may need to make more than a few crucial throws against Miami, which just limited Georgia Tech’s ground attack to half of its season average.
ABOUT MIAMI (4-3, 2-2 ACC): For as dumb as some Hurricanes acted off the field before the season, Al Golden’s crew is playing quite cerebral lately. Jacory Harris has thrown just one pick in his last 18 quarters and the team committed just one penalty in last week’s victory. Miami, though, still needs to play a full four quarters of offense. Harris completed just eight passes against the Yellow Jackets and hasn’t led the offense to a second-half touchdown the past two weeks.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Touchdowns could be a premium with Virginia and Miami ranked first and third in the ACC, respectively, in red zone defense.
2. The Cavaliers have committed seven turnovers in two road games.
3. Virginia had a span of six straight three-and-outs against North Carolina State. Miami, though, is second-to-last in the ACC in third-down defense, allowing teams to convert 45.9 percent.
TRENDS:
- Virginia is 3-9 against the spread in its last 12 conference games.
- Miami is 2-6 against the spread in its last eight home games.
- The under is 5-0 in Virginia's last five overall.
PREDICTION: MIAMI 18, VIRGINIA 12 – This will not be a passing clinic. None of the quarterbacks in this one have shown consistency through the air. Harris is facing the ACC’s most efficient pass defense while the Virginia duo has just seven touchdowns and 12 interceptions. In a game decided by kicking, Miami is booting the ball at 88.9 percent, while UVA has made just 68.8 percent of its field goal attempts.
Rice Owls at Houston Cougars (-27.5, 71)
THE STORY: No. 18 Houston enters this battle for the Bayou Bucket a perfect 7-0 and looking to equal the best start in program history. The Cougars’ spread passing attack is clicking once again, as they’ve scored at least 35 points in every game and 49 or more in the last four contests. The road team only has to travel 6.1 miles in this inner-city rivalry, but Rice’s last trip to Robertson Stadium in 2009 didn’t go so well. The Owls were pummeled 73-14, giving up the third-most points in school history and most since a 77-0 loss to LSU in 1977.
Houston leads the all-time series 26-11, dating back to 1971, including a 5-1 mark at Robertson Stadium.
LINE MOVES: Both the spread and the total are up a half point from their opening numbers, now sitting at Houston -27.5 with a 71-point total.
WEATHER: Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and 12-17 mph winds. The game-time temperature should be around 60 degrees.
ABOUT RICE (2-5, 1-3 Conference USA): The Owls are in search of their first winning season since 2008, but they haven’t gotten off to a great start in conference play. In last weekend’s 38-20 home loss to Tulsa, Rice committed four turnovers and was outgained by 120 yards. The Owls, who had to face one of the nation’s toughest non-conference schedules, rank 115th nationally in total defense, giving up 472 yards per game, and their 96th-ranked pass defense isn’t a good matchup for Houston’s fast-paced attack.
ABOUT HOUSTON (7-0, 3-0 Conference USA): In the Cougars’ 63-28 pounding of Marshall last weekend, quarterback Case Keenum won his 19th straight home game. He’s tossed 66 touchdowns to only nine interceptions during that stretch. He spread the ball around beautifully against the Thundering Herd, throwing touchdowns to five different players. Houston enters this game with the nation’s top-ranked offense, averaging an astounding 606 yards. Keenum — recently named a Davey O’Brien Award semifinalist, given annually to college football’s best quarterback — is the national leader in total offense at 389 yards per game.
EXTRA POINTS
1. The home team has won the last four in this series, including Rice’s 34-31 upset victory last season.
2. Houston has more wins against Rice (26) than any other school in its 66-year history.
3. This is one of two FBS rivalries featuring teams located in the same city (USC-UCLA is the other), and this game will be played in the Texans’ Reliant Stadium in 2012 and 2013.
TRENDS:
- Rice is 1-7 against the spread in its last eight road games.
- The over is 9-3 in Houston's last 12 home games.
- Houston is 4-0 against the spread in its last four home games.
PREDICTION: Houston 56, Rice 20. The Owls won’t be able to slow down Keenum and the Cougars, and this one could be over by halftime.
Virginia at Miami, Fl. Preview
By Christian Alexander
VegasInsider.com
I guess what it took to get Arizona to play up to their potential was for Mike Stoops to get fired. That must be the case because the Wildcats looked like a remarkably different team last Thursday night than the one that had consistently underperformed in 2011 and for much of 2010. When the final gun sounded, ‘Zona had stomped UCLA 48-12, easily covering the number (-4) and raising my Thursday night record in 2011 to 5-3 (63%).
Then again, maybe it had nothing to do with Mike Stoops and the reality is the Bruins are just that awful. Seriously, I know he is an alum and all but how much longer can head coach Rick Neuheisel be employed?
Moving on to this Thursday, let’s hop on a plane and head back East, specifically down to South Florida and take a look at Miami and Virginia.
Both programs are in the midst of rebuilding with new coaches and both have shown flashes of excellence and mediocrity so far in 2011. Mike London, in his 2nd year at Virginia, and Al Golden, in his first season at Miami, are very familiar with one another from their time together on Al Groh’s staff at Virginia. Since that time, London went to Richmond where he won a 1-AA National Championship with the Spiders and thus punched his ticket for a bigger job. Golden, meanwhile, went to Temple and turned the Owls into a winner after years of being a doormat and in the process made himself a very attractive coaching candidate.
While both programs sit at 4-3, it is the home team Hurricanes who have looked better as of late. Last weekend, the Miami rush defense, which entered the game ranked 94th in the nation, held Georgia Tech and its second-ranked rushing attack to 134 yards on the ground and just 211 total yards. And if the Yellow Jackets can’t run they are pretty much sunk and accordingly Miami cruised to an easy 24-7 win.
That win coupled with the victory over North Carolina the previous week gave Miami their first back-to-back victories since they beat Maryland and Georgia Tech in mid-November of 2010. Now, all that stands between the Hurricanes first three game winning streak since 2009 is a Virginia team which struggled mightily last week against North Carolina State.
The Cavaliers looked like they were trending in a positive direction when they defeated Georgia Tech 24-21 on Oct. 15. However, it was a case of “one step forward and two steps back” as they regressed a week later in a 28-14 home loss to the Wolfpack. Against NCST, Virginia managed just 12 first downs and an average of 3.7 yards per play - 249 total yards - on offense, the lowest offensive output in London's two seasons.
What’s tougher to accept for the Cavs is that “production” came against a banged-up Wolfpack defense that was starting its fourth combination in six games along the defensive line due to injuries.
The root of Virginia’s problems on offense stem from the fact that London just can’t seem to settle on a starting quarterback. It is never a good sign for a team to rotate QB’s throughout a game but that is just what London has done so far in 2011 with sophomore Michael Rocco – a traditional pocket passer – and true freshman David Watford – more of an athlete at the QB position. Their two differing skill sets have rarely added up to efficient production as the numbers from the NC State game would indicate. Rocco and Watford combined to go 11 for 35 for 125 yards against the Wolfpack.
Now the Cavaliers duo at QB must face a rapidly improving Miami defense led by Sean Spence. The senior linebacker has 65 total tackles (10th nationally), 9.5 tackles for loss (7th nationally), three sacks and a forced fumble and has been named one of the 12 semifinalists for the Butkus Award, honoring the nation's best LB. Spence and company will look to corral a Virginia rushing game featuring Perry Jones, Kevin Parks, and Clifton Richardson.
There was some QB controversy at the start of the season for Miami as many thought Stephen Morris might overtake Jacory Harris but Golden has stuck with the oft criticized Harris and he is starting to pay dividends. The offensive numbers aren’t huge – Miami only boasts the 79th ranked offense in college football – but the decision making process for Harris is much better and most importantly, the interceptions are way down.
It certainly helps to have a great running back to hand off to and Lamar Miller appears to be the next in a long line of talented Hurricane backs. Miller will be the focal point of the offense on Thursday night and will be tested against a Virginia defense ranked 19th in the country.
Thursday’s Betting Notes:
Virginia is 2-5 against the spread The Cavs have played four straight at home (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)
UVA is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS on the road, with the lone win coming against Indiana (34-31), who is 1-7 overall.
Miami is 4-3 ATS this season The Hurricanes have gone 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS at home.
The two non-covers came as double-digit favorites against Kansas State (24-28) and Bethune Cookman (45-14).
The home team has won the last two encounters.
The total has gone 2-2 in the last four encounters but the ‘over’ is 2-0 in the last two from South Florida.
No look-ahead for Miami, with Duke on deck next week.
NCAAF Week 9
Underdogs covered six of last seven Virginia-Miami games; Miami is 4-3 in last seven series games, but only one of four wins was by more than 10 points. Cavaliers lost two of last three visits here, losing 52-17 in last visit here two years ago; this is their first road game in six weeks- they're 10-7 in last 17 games as road underdog, 0-1 this year- they've turned ball over 18 times in last six games (-7). Miami is 18-34 as home faves since 2002, 2-1 this year; they beat North Carolina/Ga Tech last two games, after tough 38-35 loss at Va Tech. Four of last five Virginia games stayed under; three of last four Miami games went over.
Houston is 6-3 in its last nine games against crosstown rival Rice, but only one of last four series wins was by more than 17 points; Owls lost last four visits here, by average score of 53-24. Underdogs covered five of last seven series games. Rice is 6-14 in last 20 games as road dog (1-3 this season), losing away games this year by 25-25-24-4 points, with a cover at Marshall. Houston is 7-0 and trying to run up scores in the rare chance they can get a BCS bowl bid; three of their last four wins are by 35+ points, but they've struggled at La Tech (35-34), UTEP (49-42), so they're lot better at home. Double digit favorites are 4-7 in C-USA play.