California at Oregon: What Bettors Need to Know
California Golden Bears at Oregon Ducks (-23.5, 64)
THE STORY: Since falling to now-No. 2 LSU in the season-opener and dropping to No. 14 in the rankings, Oregon has slowly climbed its way back into the Top 10 with three consecutive blowout victories. The ninth-ranked Ducks have scored at least 56 points in wins over Nevada, Missouri State and Arizona and now rank first in the nation in scoring offense at 52 points per game. Oregon ranked first in that category last year, too, but California held the Ducks to season lows in points, total yards and first downs in a 15-13 Oregon victory.
California coach Jeff Tedford was Oregon’s offensive coordinator for four seasons before taking over the Golden Bears’ program in 2002. Cal leads the all-time series 39-32-2, but Oregon has won 10 of the past 15 meetings.
TV: ESPN
LINE MOVES: Oregon opened as high as -24 and had been bet down slightly at some books. The total opened as low as 63 and was bet up to 64.5 before coming back down half a point.
WEATHER: There is a 16 percent chance of rain for Eugene Thursday. Game-time temperatures will dip into the high 40s.
ABOUT CALIFORNIA (3-1, 0-1 Pac-12, 2-2 ATS): As high-powered as Oregon is offensively, the Bears haven’t been bad themselves, ranking 15th in the country with 39.5 points per game. After starting the season 3-0, Cal missed a chance at its first 4-0 start since 2007 with a 31-23 loss at Washington last week. The Bears rank ninth nationally with only 78.3 rushing yards allowed per game, but they haven’t faced a rushing offense that currently is higher than 58th in the country, so they’re in for quite a challenge trying to stop LaMichael James and Oregon’s spread-option attack. Cal quarterback Zach Maynard — a transfer from Buffalo — has 10 passing touchdowns already after throwing for just 18 in his final season with the Bulls.
ABOUT OREGON (3-1, 1-0 Pac-12, 2-2 ATS): The Ducks have been flat-out dominate at Autzen Stadium since 2008, averaging 49.5 points per game in an 18-game home winning streak. Their last home loss was a 37-32 setback against Boise State on Sept. 20, 2008. James — the nation’s leading rusher in 2010 — claimed the top spot again this week after a record-setting 288-yard effort at Arizona last weekend. Quarterback Darron Thomas threw two touchdowns in the Ducks’ 56-31 win against the Wildcats, making it 17 consecutive games he’s thrown for at least one score. Oregon has won 13 straight conference games since a loss at Stanford in November 2009.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Oregon leads the nation with only one sack allowed through four games, while Cal’s defense is ninth nationally with 3.25 sacks per game.
2. Eight of the last 11 games in this series have been decided by 10 points or less.
3. This is the first of three weeknight games this season for Cal, which played only three total weeknight games in Tedford’s first nine years in Berkeley.
TRENDS:
* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Oregon.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Golden Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
PREDICTION: Oregon 56, California 24 -- The Ducks offense is rolling again, and they’ve been unstoppable at Autzen Stadium, so the Bears could be in for a long night.
California at Oregon Preview
By Christian Alexander
Matchup: California (3-1) at #9 Oregon (3-1)
Venue: Autzen Stadium – FieldTurf
Date: Thursday, Oct. 6
Time/TV: 9:00 pm ET - ESPN
Line: Oregon -24, o/u 65
Just when I thought I was streaking. South Florida and QB BJ Daniels sure didn’t look very impressive last Thursday when they traveled to Pitt and laid an egg. Sure, you have to give the Panthers credit but it’s safe to say that wasn’t the best effort by the Bulls in a game they were slight road favorites (-2.5). When the final gun sounded Pitt had 44 to South Florida’s 17 – ouch.
With a 3-2 (60%) record on Thursday nights, I’ll try to get headed in the right direction this week as we turn our attention to this week’s game out west between Cal and Oregon.
Some interesting shared history for the two coaches this Thursday as Cal’s Jeff Tedford was the offense coordinator at Oregon between 1998-2001 before heading to Berkley for his first – and so far only – top job in 2002. Oregon’s Chip Kelly took a similar path to his present position as he was the offensive coordinator for the Ducks during the 2007 and 2008 seasons before landing the head coaching position in Eugene in 2009.
Both coaches are known to be offensive masterminds and Kelly has certainly lived up to that moniker recently. Kelly, who – even as the head coach - continues to call the offensive plays for Oregon, has run a pretty prolific offense these past four seasons, averaging just over 40 points a game in that span.
Recently, they’ve been even better as the Ducks lead the nation in scoring this season with 52 points per game. The scary part for Cal is that Oregon takes it to a whole other level when playing at home – site of this Thursday's game. Since last season – a span of eight games - the Ducks have averaged 59.9 points at Autzen Stadium.
By now, it’s certainly no secret who drives the Oregon offense. Running back LaMichael James leads the nation in rushing at just over 150 yards per game. Combining with quarterback Darron Thomas, the Ducks unquestionably have the best 1-2 punch in the nation.
Yet for all of Oregon’s offensive prowess, much of the talk leading up to this week’s game centers around whether the Ducks can figure out the Cal defense – a unit that held Kelly and company to a season-low 15 points in their 2010 game. Yes, Oregon won that game 15-13 but the fact remains the Ducks have only averaged 24 points a game in the last four years against Cal – well below their average.
It appears as if Oregon – and specifically James – will again be tested this Thursday as Cal’s defense is ranked ninth in the country against the run, allowing a shade less than 80 yards a game. Thomas – who hasn’t been sacked so far in 2011 – will also be tested by a Bear’s defense ranked 18th in the nation with 13 sacks in four games.
However, if there is one soft spot in the Cal defense, it is in their secondary. Not including what basically amounted to a scrimmage vs. Presbyterian, Cal has given up an average of 305 passing yards in their three games, which is just about the worst in the Pac-12. You can be sure that weather permitting – and the forecast is calling for a 20% chance of rain – Thomas will test Cal’s secondary with weapons such as wide receiver Lavasier Tuinei.
Tedford likely knows he can’t win a shoot out with the Ducks – certainly not in Autzen Stadium – but that’s not to say the Bears don’t have some weapons of their own. Opposing teams won’t confuse Cal QB Zach Maynard and RB Isi Sofele for Thomas & James but the duo from Berkley can light up a scoreboard.
With products such as Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers, Tedford is known as a great QB coach and Maynard has certainly been impressive so far in 2011. Of course, it helps to have a pair of NFL ready WRs in Marvin Jones and Kennan Allen. Jones, who is 6'3", is averaging almost six catches and over 90 yards a game while Allen, who is also 6'3", averages nearly eight receptions and 124 yards a game.
For Cal to have any chance on Thursday, the Bears must have success with their passing game. Even then it may not matter as the Bears are just 1-9 in their last 10 games at Autzen Stadium. Tedford has very little experience on the Thursday night stage and this will only be his second game appearance in that spot. You have to go all the way back to 2003, when Cal – led by Rodgers – lost to Utah – led by Alex Smith – 31-24 on a Thursday night. In fact, the last time the Bears won on a Thursday night game was in 1992 when they beat Kansas, 27-23.
Both teams enter this contest 2-2 against the spread and it’s worth noting that as the coach of Cal, Tedford has only been a bigger underdog once – when the oddsmakers gave the Bears 28 points in a game against Kansas State. Cal lost that game – but was a winner for bettors – as the final score was 42-28.
Oregon Ducks Host Cal Bears ESPN Thursday
By: Dave Consolazio
The Oregon Ducks look to improve to 2-0 in Pac-12 play and to keep their slim BCS Championship hopes alive with a win over the Cal Bears this Thursday night.
Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET Thursday night, and the game will be televised nationwide on ESPN. The Don Best odds screen has Oregon as a 23 ½-point favorite at home with the total yet to be released.
Since losing to LSU in the season opener at Cowboys Stadium, it’s been business as usual for the Ducks who have averaged 60.3 points per game over their last three. The LSU loss may eventually cost Oregon a trip to the BCS Championship, but Chip Kelly's club is still in great position to challenge Stanford down the road for supremacy in the Pac-12.
Oregon (3-1) survived Nick Foles and Arizona in the Ducks’ last game by putting up points all game and out-shooting the Wildcats 56-31 in the end. LaMichael James rushed for a ridiculous 288 yards in the big win.
As is usually the case with the Ducks, the offense is confident and clicking now that they have a few games under their belt. At home with no distracting crowd, Oregon’s offense tends to run even better. The Bears will definitely have their hands full with this attack.
California (3-1) picked up its first loss of the season in thelast game against Washington as a 1 ½-point favorite on the road. Last season, Cal covered the spread against Oregon at home in a 15-13 loss as 19-point underdogs.
While Oregon has won the last two meetings between these two teams, Jeff Tedford has had his share of success against Oregon in recent years. Cal is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five games against the Ducks, and has remarkably held Oregon's high-octane offense to just 24 points or less in four of those five games.
Both Cal and Oregon have trended ‘over’ in college football betting this season, with each team’s record on the high side at 3-1. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of Oregon’s last six at home, and four of Cal’s last six games overall.
Recent form may end up being more important than older trends, but it is worth noting that five of the last six games these teams have played have gone ‘under.’
As is illustrated by their 60.3 points per game over the last three, Oregon has just one speed, and that’s full speed ahead. Cal in all likelihood won’t get a break of Oregon letting up late, so to cover this spread the Bears are going to need to bring their best on offense or once again find a way to solve this dangerous spread attack.
The early weather forecast for Eugene on Thursday includes a 30 percent chance of rain and the mid-to-upper 50s for kickoff from Autzen Stadium.
NCAAF Preview
Underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in four of Cal's last five visits to Eugene, as Bears lost four of five, but with only one loss by more than eight points. Cal allowed 33-31 points in splitting first two road games; they're 4-8 in last dozen games as a road underdog. Oregon is 9-2-1 as home fave under Kelly- they scored 69-56 points in last two games vs I-A foes since loss to LSU (40-27) in Dallas. Home teams are 3-7 vs spread in Pac-10 tilts.
Middle Tennessee is 1-3, with only win 38-31 over awful 1-4 Memphis; they allowed 39.3 ppg in last three games, are 2-4 in their last six games as home favorite. Western Kentucky is 5-3 in last eight games as a road underdog; they're 0-4 already, with 44-16 loss to I-AA Indiana State and a minus-8 turnover ratio. Middle Tennessee won last three series games, covering two of last three. All four MTSU games went over the total.