College Football Betting News and Notes Thursday 11/1

Virginia Tech at Miami
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com

The switch to the ACC for the Thursday night matchups provided a dud last week with Clemson blowing out Wake Forest. This week's matchup has the potential to be a gem with two former national powers looking for a path to the ACC Coastal title. This rivalry provided an exciting game last season with fourth quarter lead changes and the winning score in the final minute and as the line suggests, Virginia Tech and Miami could be in line for another tight game. Here is a look at the teams and the history in this series.

Matchup: Virginia Tech Hokies at Miami Hurricanes
Venue: Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Date: Thursday, November 1, 2012
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET - ESPN
Line: Virginia Tech -1 ½, Over/Under 57½
Last Meeting: 2011, Virginia Tech (-7½) 38-35, at Virginia Tech

The ACC Coastal division is wide open with Duke currently leading the way at 3-2. Virginia Tech and Miami are certainly in the mix as North Carolina is not eligible for the postseason this year. While the Atlantic champion, likely Florida State or Clemson, will be a heavy favorite over the Coastal champion in the conference championship game, the Coastal champion has won four of the past five title games. The winner of this game could be in the driver's seat for the division title.

This is the first of two back-to-back Thursday night affairs for a Virginia Tech team that has lost three of the last four games to fall to 4-4. The Hokies are 2-2 in conference play and only once in the eight years that Virginia Tech has been in the ACC has the team lost more than two conference games. Virginia Tech has also never finished worst than second in the Coastal division. Frank Beamer has not had a five-loss team since 2003 and he has not led a team at .500 or below since 1992. The Hokies will be solid favorites the final two weeks of the season against Boston College and Virginia, but they host Florida State next week, making this is a pretty critical game.

Expectations were pretty low for Miami this season with self-imposed and NCAA sanctions starting to grab hold of the once dominant program. Miami squeaked by Boston College in the opening week of the season and then was hammered by Kansas State, a loss that no longer looks so terrible. The Hurricanes are 3-2 in ACC play and 4-4 overall and while a few losses have been ugly, they have all come against highly regarded teams. Three of Miami's four losses have come against top 10 teams. Miami has lost three straight after starting the ACC season 3-0, but if they win Thursday, they have winnable road games to close the conference season, at Virginia, and at Duke.

The Hurricanes have posted solid offensive numbers led by a passing attack that is putting up 288 yards per game. Junior quarterback Stephen Morris has passed for 2,200 yards already this season, but he has completed just over 57 percent of his passes and only has 10 touchdowns against seven interceptions. Miami has not had a consistent rushing attack and part of that has been due to playing from behind in several games. The main issues for Miami have been on defense however. The 'Canes have allowed over 32 points per game on nearly 500 yards per game. Only one FBS opponent has been held to fewer than 32 points this season.

Virginia Tech is accustomed to featuring one of the top defenses in the nation, but this season the Hokies have very average numbers, allowing 370 yards per game including an alarming 167 yards per game on the ground. The numbers are far better than what Miami has done on defense, but the schedule has not been nearly as difficult. Virginia Tech is incredibly 0-4 away from home this season with the defense allowing 465 yards and 37 points per game in the non-home games. The Hokies have also lacked stable production on the ground with their leading rusher featuring just 338 yards on the season. Quarterback Logan Thomas is a duel-threat, but he has been turnover-prone and he is completing less than 54 percent of his passes and already with as many interceptions as he had all last season.

Thomas is a big, mobile quarterback and Miami had serious problems containing Collin Klein early in the year. Miami has been out-rushed in every game since the opening week, often by a significant margin, but this has been a team that can put together great scoring stretches, delivering wild runs to win against Georgia Tech and N.C. State earlier this season. The home team has won four of the last five meetings in this series, but Virginia Tech has owned the recent ATS history, including covering in the last five trips to Miami. Both teams have battled injuries on the offensive line and in the backfield which seems to be the root of many of the problems for both offenses.

Line Movement: Virginia Tech opened as a two-point road favorite. The line did briefly climb to -2 ½, but has since dropped to -1 ½. The total has elevated slightly from 57 to 57 ½.

Last Meeting: Last season in Blacksburg, Virginia Tech led most of the way after opening with a 14-0 lead. A touchdown seconds before halftime kept the margin at 14 points and that lead was cut to 10 entering a wild fourth quarter. The teams traded touchdowns in the first three minutes of the final quarter and Miami got within three a few minutes later. The Hurricanes broke a big run from now Miami Dolphin Lamar Miller to take the lead with less than three minutes to go. Logan Thomas and the Hokies had the last laugh with a 19-yard run to clinch the win with under a minute to go. Both teams had big days on offense, combining for over 1,000 total yards and Thomas had one of his best overall games. The star running backs for both teams are now in the NFL and former Miami quarterback Jacory Harris started for the Hurricanes.

Series History: This rivalry has moved from the Big East to the ACC, but Virginia Tech has dominated the recent meetings. Miami won seven straight in this series from the 1981 Peach Bowl to 1994, while Virginia Tech is 12-5 S/U since then, including winning S/U in each of the last three seasons and in seven of the last nine. The Hokies are also 17-7 ATS since 1981 in this series including covering in nine of the last 11, although Miami covered as an underdog last season.

Virginia Tech Historical Trends: Virginia Tech is 0-3 S/U and ATS in road games this season and 0-4 S/U & ATS in non-home games. That goes against a great recent run as a road performer for the Hokies, going 32-6 S/U and 28-10 ATS from 2004 through 2011. Since 1994, Virginia Tech is 40-23 ATS as a road favorite including going 21-8 ATS since 2004. The Hokies have been less successful as a very slight favorite, going just 17-14-1 ATS as a favorite of three or less, though still going 10-4-1 ATS in situations as a slight road favorite.

Miami, FL Historical Trends: It is no secret that the Miami program has hit hard times in the last decade or so. Miami is just 25-40 ATS at home since 2002. Miami is 5-2 as a home underdog in that span, however, including going 2-0 ATS in the home underdog role this season. Miami is still 49-20 S/U since 2002 at home, as this is still a team that does not often lose at home, rather often failing to live up to expectations as favorites.

There are two additional games Thursday night this week:

Eastern Michigan at Ohio

Line: Ohio -17, Over/Under 57

The perfect start for Ohio was showing signs of decay with a couple of narrow wins against light competition, but last week the Bobcats were not able to dig out of an early hole, losing to Miami, Ohio. The Bobcats now are in a tough four-way race for the MAC East title and the schedule after this week will get more difficult. Ohio was held to a season-low 20 points last week and there will be opportunities to get back on track against an Eastern Michigan team that has allowed almost 38 points per game. This is a second straight road game for the Eagles and the short week will also present a challenging set-up. Statistically, Ohio has been a far better team on both sides of the ball, but the Bobcats have failed to cover in four straight games and the dreams of a perfect season have been dashed.

Middle Tennessee State at Western Kentucky

Line: Western Kentucky -9, Over/Under 54

Western Kentucky bounced back from its first conference loss by sneaking by Florida International last week, but it was clearly a flat performance. The Hilltoppers will need help to get back in the Sun Belt race, as this is a team that needs a few more wins to ensure a bowl bid after being left out af 7-5 last season. Middle Tennessee State could also make a postseason run after going just 2-10 last year. The Blue Raiders have won three road games this season, but Western Kentucky has been the vastly superior defensive team in this matchup. The Hilltoppers are 7-1 ATS on the season, as these teams went to overtime last season with Middle Tennessee State losing despite a sizable yardage advantage.

ACC Report - Week 10
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Virginia Tech at Miami

Thursday night football at 'The U'. It isn't like the old days where there was a ton of mystique and fear in the hearts of an opponents, especially now that Miami host games in a cavernous, and usually one-third or half-full, Joe Pro Robbie Land Shark Dolphin Player Stadium, or whatever it is called these days. The Canes have gone 2-2 at home in front of the home 'faithful', while the Hokies are absolutely atrocious on the road, going 0-4. Virginia Tech is 0-5 ATS in its past five on the road, 1-4 ATS in its past five ACC games, and just 5-15-1 ATS in its past 21 overall. Miami, on the other hand, is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its past five ACC games, 4-1 ATS in its past five overall, and 4-1 ATS in the past five coming off a bye. That being said, that even makes New Orleans Hornets rookie Anthony Davis raise an eyebrow when you see the Hokies are favored by 1.5. This seems like a slam dunk play for the Hurricanes, especially since QB Stephen Morris and RB Duke Calhoun are back practicing and ready to go full bore. Here is the reason for VT being favored, however: the Hokies are 5-0 ATS in its past five trips to Miami, 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings, and the road team is 6-2 ATS in the past eight. However, those were good Virginia Tech teams, and some marginal Miami teams. While the Canes are still mediocre, the Hokies are downright bad.

Virginia Tech at Miami: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Virginia Tech Hokies at Miami Hurricanes (+1.5, 57)

Despite recent struggles for both teams, a berth in the ACC championship game may be on the line when Virginia Tech visits Miami on Thursday. Virginia Tech has dropped three of four games, but the Hokies have beaten Duke and Georgia Tech in the Coastal Division already and North Carolina is not eligible for postseason play.

The Hurricanes have lost three consecutive games after a strong start and still have destiny in their own hands. Both teams have been inconsistent running the ball, so the game will likely be in the hands of quarterbacks Logan Thomas of Virginia Tech and Miami’s Stephen Morris.

The Hokies won last year’s battle 38-35 and another shootout is expected with the Hurricanes allowing 32.4 points per game and the Hokies 24.0 – 35.3 in the last three.

LINE: Virginia Tech opened as high as -2.5 and has been bet down to -1.5. The total is set at 57 points.

WEATHER: The forecast for Sun Life Stadium is calling for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the low 70s. Winds are expected to blow WSW at 8 mph.

ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (4-4, 2-2 ACC, 2-6 ATS): The Hokies are off to their worst start through eight games since 1992 and are winless in three road games. Coach Frank Beamer said the effort has been there, but execution needs be more consistent. Thomas has been intercepted 10 times in the last six games and completes only 53.6 percent of his passes. The Hokies are in the lower half of the nation in rushing and J.C. Coleman has the only 100-yard effort. Virginia Tech has turned the ball over 15 times and allowed an average of 409.2 yards in the last six contests after allowing 254.5 in the first two with one turnover. The Hokies' Cody Journell has made 10 straight field goals.

ABOUT MIAMI (4-4, 3-2, 5-3 ATS): The Hurricanes lost to North Carolina and a pair of teams now ranked in the top seven – Notre Dame and Florida State – in the last three games. Miami comes in off 12 days of rest for the final stretch, where it can achieve its goals with improved defense. Miami has allowed almost 500 yards per contest, ranking 116th out of 120 teams in the nation, and is second to last in rushing defense (249.3). One problem is that opponents have possessed the ball an average of 10:14 more per game. Running backs Mike James and Duke Johnson - both with more than 400 yards - have the talent to help turn those numbers around.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Miami.
* Hokies are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in Miami.
* Hokies are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.
* Underdog is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Miami linebacker Denzel Perryman has 31 tackles combined over the last three games.

2. Virginia Tech’s Kyshoen Jarrett is fourth in the nation in punt returns (18.1).

3. Miami leads the series 17-12, but Virginia Tech has won the last three meetings.

Nine Things Bettors Should Know About EMU-Ohio
By Covers.com

Eastern Michigan at Ohio Bobcats (-17, 57.5)

1. Ohio is No. 1 in the nation with only three turnovers lost. Eastern Michigan ranks 82 in the nation in that category with 17.

2. Temperatures are expected to be in the low-30s tomorrow night with winds at 11 mph. There’s a 20 percent chance of rain.

3. Ohio – the MAC East preseason favorite – has failed to cover its past four games, ranging as a favorite from 6.5 to 23.5 points.

4. Ohio is hinting it may mix up its playbook more than you might expect for a short week. They’re going to work in Ryan Boykin more at running back and have some designed QB runs. Head coach Frank Solich said it’s because teams have caught on to their option. Miami (Ohio) had six sacks last week in a 23-20 upset and held Ohio to 162 rushing yards, after averaging 210.4 per game on the season.

“We've got to get more production in terms of running more read-type of plays or more quarterback-design kind of runs, because right now they're zeroing in on our running back pretty well," Solich told reporters.

5. Eastern Michigan ranks 114th in the nation in scoring defense and owns the worst rushing defense in the country with 302.4 yards against per game.

6. Ohio ranks 106th in third-down efficiency this season. Solich says that’s due to having too many third-and-longs, which he hopes to correct by mixing things up Thursday.

7. Ohio’s Matt Weller has made 17-of-24 field goals including a 56-yarder last week. He ranks third in the nation in FG percentage.

8. EMU has been outscored 67-27 in the first quarter and shut out five times in the opening frame this season.

9. Ohio is 0-6 against the spread in its last six games against teams with a losing record at the time the Bobcats played them. New Mexico State is the only FBS team they’ve beaten by more than 17 points this season.

CFB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Virginia Tech at Miami

Dropping three of it's last four and winless in four away games the Virginia Tech Hokies try to gain ground in the ACC's Coastal Division this Thursday night when they visit the Miami Hurricanes. Despite the struggles, Hokies at 2-2 within the division and with a win here can take a huge step in claiming a possible birth in the ACC championship game as they've already beaten Duke and North Carolina is not eligible for postseason play. Virginia Tech should feel pretty good about their chances, Hokies have won the last three meetings and catch a Hurricane squad allowing 32.4 points on a whopping 499.8 total yards/game. Virginia Tech laying just 1.5 points vs a team in the throws of a three game slide are worth a second look. Hokies are ridding a 5-1 ATS stretch in the series, 5-0 ATS streak last five encounters in Hurricanes back yard and are 5-0 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or less.

Virginia Tech vs. Miami: Point Spread, Vegas Betting Lines and Trends
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com

Two up-and-down former ACC powers collide in South Beach, when the Miami Hurricanes host the Virginia Tech Hokies Thursday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).

The Hokies (4-4, 2-6 ATS) have dominated this series recently, winning five of six and covering the spread in 13 of the last 17 meetings. But this isn’t one of coach Frank Beamer’s best teams. Virginia Tech has lost three of four coming into tonight.

The Hurricanes (4-4, 5-3 ATS) have lost three straight and have huge issues defensively.

This is only the fifth time since 2002 that Miami has been a home underdog. The Hurricanes are 15-3 straight-up on Thursday nights.

Weather: Temperatures will dip into the mid-60s with light winds and a 20 percent chance of rain.

Line: Virginia Tech -1.5

Total: 58

Line movement: Virginia Tech opened as a 2.5-point road favorite. Bettors gravitated toward the home underdog and trimmed the line down to 1.5 at some shops as of Thursday morning. There were some minus-2s and even a -2.5 still available.

The total was sitting at 58 as of Thursday morning. The Hokies are averaging 29 points and surrendering 24 points per game. Miami is scoring 26.9 points and allowing 32.3 points per game.

The last three meetings have averaged 56.3 points per game.

Recent meetings:

Oct. 8, 2011: Virginia Tech (-7.5) 38, Miami 35, in Blacksburg, Va.

Nov. 20, 2010: Virginia Tech 31 (-2), Miami 17, in Coral Gables, Fla.

Sept. 26, 2009: Virginia Tech 31, Miami (-2), 7 in Blacksburg.

Six notable trends:

Virginia Tech is 22-6 ATS in November.

Virginia Tech is 5-15-1 ATS in last 21 games overall.

The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series.

Under is 14-2 in Hokies’ last 16 Thursday night games.

Under is 28-10-1 in Hurricanes’ last 39 games in Novmeber.

Under is 40-19-1 in Hurricanes’ last 60 home games.

Hokies’ outlook: Despite their uneven start, the Hokies still have a shot at winning the Coastal Division of the downtrodden ACC. To do so, QB Logan Thomas has to get the passing game going. Virginia Tech ranks ninth in the conference in passing offense, averaging 242 yards through the air per game, and is eighth in the ACC in total offense. But tonight expect the Hokies to attack Miami's porous run defense with a mix of Thomas and freshman RB J.C. Coleman.

Virginia Tech key injuries:

C Caleb Farris (ankle) probable

Hurricanes’ outlook: Miami has to find a way to sure up its run defense, which ranks 119th in the nation and is allowing 249.25 rushing yards per game. If the Hurricanes let Thomas and the Hokies move the ball on the ground, it could be a long night. Miami QB Stephen Morris has been battling an ankle injury but has reportedly improved during the off week. The Hurricanes’ do have more explosive playmakers than the Hokies, led by receivers Phillip Dorsett and Rashawn Scott. Five players have scored touchdowns of 40 yards or longer this season.

Miami key injuries:

DT Curtis Porter (appendix) questionable

RB Duke Johnson (foot) probable

QB Stephen Morris (ankle) probable

What The Linemakers are saying: The Don Best/Linemakers Power Ratings suggest the line is pretty tight, with Virginia Tech being around a 6-point favorite on a neutral field. Home dogs are always a popular play on Thursday nights, but Virginia Tech’s run game against Miami’s atrocious run defense has the potential to take the life out of Sun Life Stadium quickly. While the trends point to a lower scoring game than expected, both of these teams have implemented more up-tempo schemes into their offense.

College Football Betting Preview: Virginia Tech at Miami (FL)
By Rob Veno
Sportsmemo.com

Virginia Tech at Miami (FL)

Thursday, 4:30 pm PT – ESPN
CRIS Opener: Virginia Tech -2 O/U 57
CRIS Current: Virginia Tech -1 O/U 58
Rob Veno Power Rating: Miami pk

Important matchup between these ACC Coastal Division foes as each needs this win to stay alive for a possible spot in the ACC Championship game. Both teams benefit from a bye week and in Virginia Tech’s case, the time helped resolve their depth-shy center position. Reserve Caleb Farris has healed enough (ankle injury) to replace starter Andrew Miller who is lost for the season. Miami can draw some added motivation from last season’s heartbreaking 38-35 road loss with under a minute to go.

The Hokies offensive line will operate at less than full strength in this contest with some position shifting and health concerns across the starting unit. However, their matchup with the very permissive Hurricane run defense (allowing 249.9 rypg, 5.2 ypc) is one they need to win. If VT can run the ball effectively, it makes everything easier for erratic QB Logan Thomas. Success for the ground game will also keep Miami’s offense off the field which limits the big play opportunities for Miami’s passing attack.

Miami’s offensive mission is basically the same. They’ll need running backs Duke Johnson and Mike James (combined 882 rushing yards, 4.9 ypc) to keep the offense balanced. UM had extreme difficulty running against the powerful defenses of Florida State, Notre Dame and Kansas State which just so happen to be the only three games in which they didn’t gain 300 total yards. Virginia Tech’s defensive numbers have been very good the past couple of games and the 10 sacks they recorded against Duke and Clemson indicate their improvement.

Tech has owned this series going 9-2 against the spread in the last 11 games but they’ve been an 0-4 pointspread nightmare on the road this season losing by an average of 14 points. Miami on the other hand is 3-0 ATS at home versus ACC opponents. Expect a good matchup tonight on ESPN.