What Bettors Need to Know: Thursday's Top 25 NCAAF Action
By Covers.com
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at UAB Blazers (+23, 61.5)
THE STORY: No. 20 Southern Miss appears to be on a collision course with 10th-ranked Houston for the Conference USA Championship Game, but both teams still have work left to do. The Cougars have tough games remaining against SMU and Tulsa, while the Golden Eagles merely have to win one of their final two games against bottom-feeders Alabama-Birmingham and Memphis. Southern Miss has won eight straight games since a slip-up at Marshall in Week 2, which is tied for coach Larry Fedora’s longest winning streak since he took over in 2008.
Southern Miss won the first nine meetings in this series, but Alabama-Birmingham has claimed the last two games, including last season’s 50-49 double-overtime win.
LINE MOVES: Southern Miss opened at -21 and has been bet up to -23.
ABOUT SOUTHERN MISS (9-1, 5-1 Conference USA, 7-3 ATS): The Golden Eagles are off to their best start since 1962, and another win would be only their third 10-win season in school history and first since 1988. Last weekend, Southern Miss barely escaped with a 30-29 home win over Central Florida, which scored a touchdown as time expired but then failed on a two-point conversion that would’ve won the game. The Golden Eagles limited UCF to only 48 yards rushing, holding an opponent under 100 yards on the ground for the fifth time this season. Southern Miss is 20-1 all-time under Fedora when accomplishing that.
ABOUT ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM (2-8, 2-5 Conference USA, 6-4 ATS): The Blazers snapped a two-game skid with a dramatic come-from-behind win at Memphis last weekend. Trailing 35-17 in the fourth-quarter, Alabama-Birmingham reeled off 24 unanswered points to win 41-35 and complete the biggest fourth-quarter comeback in school history. Jonathan Perry tossed two of his four touchdowns in the final period, and Greg Franklin scored on a 10-yard run that proved to be the game-winner with 1:36 left.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. After running back Bruce Johnson and wide receiver Chris Briggs notched their first touchdowns of the season last weekend, a school-record 21 different players have scored for Southern Miss in 2011.
2. Seven of the 11 games in this series have been decided by seven points or less, but the Golden Eagles are 6-1 in those games.
3. Southern Miss ranks 16th nationally in scoring offense (36.8), while the Blazers are 113th in scoring defense (37.2).
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Alabama-Birmingham.
* Underdog is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Golden Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Blazers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.
PREDICTION: Southern Miss 52, Alabama-Birmingham 28. The Blazers have given up at least 49 points three times this season, and this game will likely be the fourth
North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Tech Hokies (-10.5, 47)
THE STORY: No. 7 Virginia Tech controls its own destiny in its pursuit of the ACC championship and the BCS Bowl berth that comes with the trophy. The Hokies made it through one test with a win at Georgia Tech last week and are currently one game ahead of rival Virginia in the ACC Coastal Division. With a visit to the Cavaliers on tap for next weekend, Virginia Tech must first sneak past a dangerous North Carolina team. The Tar Heels looked like they had a chance to make some noise in the ACC until running into a rough patch over the last month with losses in three of their last four games. North Carolina was shut out for the first time in five years on Nov. 5 but has had a bye week to prepare for the Virginia Tech offense. Hokies coach Frank Beamer will be looking for his 250th career win when the Tar Heels visits Blacksburg, Va., on Thursday.
LINE MOVES: The Hokies opened as high as -11 and have been bet down to -10.5.
ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (6-4, 2-4 ACC, 4-6 ATS): The Tar Heels expect to have quarterback Bryn Renner healthy on Thursday after the sophomore was knocked out of the 13-0 loss at North Carolina State with a concussion. Renner was coming off his first career 300-yard passing performance in a win over Wake Forest when he ran into trouble against the Wolfpack. North Carolina managed only three rushing yards against NC State and is 72nd in the FBS in rushing average at 144.8 yards.
ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (9-1, 5-1, 3-7 ATS): The Hokies are aiming for a berth in their fourth ACC Championship game in the last five years. Beamer’s offense is running in high gear lately, going over 400 total yards in five straight, and is coming off a strong performance in a 37-26 victory over Georgia Tech. Sophomore quarterback Logan Thomas passed for three touchdowns and rushed for two more - the second time this season he has totaled five scores in a game.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The Hokies are 25-2 in November games since 2004.
2. The last time the schools met on a Thursday in Blacksburg, the Tar Heels came away with a 20-17 victory in 2009.
3. Renner’s father, Bill, was a punter for Virginia Tech.
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Tar Heels are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Hokies are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.
PREDICTION: Hokies 24, Tar Heels 14. Thomas will prove to be too much for the North Carolina defense.
NCAAF Week 12
Virginia Tech won six of last seven games vs North Carolina, with dogs covering three of last four. Hokies won last five games overall- they are 0-4 as home favorites this year, wth home wins by 19-3-16 points, and a loss to Clemson. Carolina lost three of last four games, covered one of last five; since 2008, Tar Heels are 5-4 as road underdogs, 0-2 this year. Four of last five Tech games, three of last four UNC games went over the total. Double digit home favorites are 6-5 in ACC games this season.
Memphis is horrible, 1-8 vs D-I teams, losing home games by 45-42-18-6 points; they led last game 35-17 in 4th quarter and still lost. Tigers are 2-7 as underdogs this year, 0-4 at home- they're 3-11 in last 14 games as a home dog. Marshall won last three series games, by 15-1-11 points, as dogs covered all three games; Herd won 27-16 in last visit here, only win by a visitor in last six series games. Thundering Herd is 1-5 on road this year, with only win 17-13 as Louisville (+10.5). C-USA underdogs of 9+ points are 1-8 against the spread at home this season.
UAB won last two games vs Southern Mississippi, after losing previous nine series games; Eagles won five of last visits here, losing 30-17 in last visit two years ago. Blazers won LY's game 50-49, after trailing big early. UAB is 1-3 at home this year, losing by 39-18-43 points; they're 1-2 as home underdogs this year, 5-5-1 under Calloway. C-USA underdogs of 9+ points are 1-8 against the spread at home this season. Eagles won last eight games, covering six of last seven; since '03, they're 19-8 as favorites on foreign soil. Over is 5-2 in last seven USM games, 3-1 in UAB's last four contests.
North Carolina at Virginia Tech
By Christian Alexander
VegasInsider.com
Thanks to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, my seesaw season on Thursday nights rolls on. Paul Johnson's team had looked very impressive at home this season and I suspected they would be too much for the visitors from Blacksburg, VA. Alas, Virginia Tech got a strong game from David Wilson on the ground and solid effort from their defense and were able to put a strangle hold on the coastal division of the ACC.
This week we will stick with the Hokies and head over to Blacksburg as head coach Frank Beamer welcomes the North Carolina Tar Heels to town.
UNC is coming off a bye and the extra rest couldn't have come at a better time for the program. After starting the season 5-1, the Tar Heels have dropped three of their last four games. The low point for UNC came in their most recent game, on Nov. 5 against NC State. Carolina was blanked 13-0 by a pretty pedestrian Wolfpack squad in a game where the team looked listless.
If the bye week wasn't able to recharge the batteries for the Tar Heels, it could be a long night for the visitors from North Carolina. After beating Georgia Tech, the Hokies know they are a couple of steps away from returning to the ACC Championship game and likely a chance to seek revenge against Clemson.
The Tigers are the only team to beat Virginia Tech and they did it in convincing fashion with a 23-3 win in Blacksburg on Oct. 1. In that game, Clemson executed a very efficient offense and combined that with a devastating effort on defense to suffocate the Hokies.
That combination is something that - on a good day - North Carolina is capable of bringing to the field. Most talent evaluators recognize that North Carolina has a ton of NFL talent along their defensive front seven. Players such as DE Quinton Coples will definitely be playing on Sunday afternoons soon enough and if Virginia Tech isn't up for the challenge, the Heels could make things interesting Thursday night.
On offense, Carolina features QB Bryn Renner, a sophomore who is still learning the nuances of the college game. Throwing for 227.1 yards per game while completing 71.4% of his passes, Renner has shown flashes of brilliance with 19 TDs but also plenty of rookie mistakes with 11 INTs in 10 games. The youngster has also taken his fair share of bumps and bruises lately as he's been sacked 22 times this season, including 14 in the last five games.
The other side of the coin for the UNC offense is RB Giovani Bernard. The talented back is third in the ACC in rushing with just over 100 yards a game and second in the conference with 11 rushing TDs. Behind a North Carolina offensive line which averages 6-5, 319 pounds, Bernard is typically provided with plenty of holes to run through.
If Renner can eliminate the mistakes and be efficient with his passes and Bernard can establish an effective running game, North Carolina could definitely make this game interesting. Remember, UNC won on their last trip to Blacksburg, defeating the Hokies 20-17 in 2009.
That said, on senior night in Lane Stadium, with the Hokies eyeing another return to the ACC Championship game, it's hard to believe we will see much less than the best effort from Beamer's program. If that is the case, UNC will have a hard time matching the home team.
Betting Notes:
Virginia Tech has gone 3-7 ATS
VT has gone 4-1 SU and 1-4 ATS at home this season, the lone cover coming against Appalachian State (66-13)
The Hokies are 1-5 ATS as double-digit favorites this season
North Carolina is 4-6 ATS
The Tar Heels are 1-3 both SU and ATS on the road, all three losses by double digits
Virginia Tech has won 6 of the last 7 meetings (4-3 ATS) against North Carolina
The Hokies have been double-digit favorites in five of these games, only covering twice
The 'under' has gone 6-1 during this run