College Football Betting Preview: Washington St at BYU
By Otto Sports
Sportsmemo.com
An early season ESPN game has caught my attention and I think the underdog could have some bite. Washington State travels to Provo to take on a BYU team that won 10 games a year ago. Those 10 wins marked the fifth time in seven prior seasons that the Cougars had posted double-digit wins under Bronco Mendenhall.
BYU obviously has a solid pedigree; they are well coached and boast a solid home field advantage having gone 27-4 straight up here since 2006. Whereas a bit of a quarterback controversy and identity crisis (are we a running team or throwing team?) popped up last year, 2012’s squad looks quite settled. Reports out of Provo suggest the offense looks as dangerous as it has in years, quarterback Riley Nelson is the unquestioned starter and leader and the rushing attack will be the perfect weapon to help balance an improved passing attack.
Having said that though you have to go all the way back to 2006 to find a season in which BYU excelled as a spread favorite here at home. That year they went 5-1 ATS but have gone just 14-12 ATS since. One constant worth noting is their slow starts. Even when this team has averaged 30-plus points per game in a given season they seem to come out of the gates slowly from a scoring standpoint. Consider this quote from a desertnews.com article pulled yesterday:
“With Thursday's season-opener at LaVell Edwards Stadium against Washington State (8:15 p.m., MT, ESPN) rapidly approaching, the reality is that in Mendenhall's previous seven campaigns at the helm, BYU's offense has sputtered in almost every season-opener, averaging about 18 points per game. Take away the 41 points scored in the 2008 opener against FCS opponent Northern Iowa, that average drops to a lackluster 14.5.”
I do expect BYU to be better than these recent historical figures show, after all Washington State simply isn’t good defensively. But if BYU isn’t in midseason peak performance mode and putting up big numbers it’s going to be difficult to cover a two-touchdown spread.
Why? Because BYU hasn’t seen anything really resembling Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense in quite some time. Leach has built a largely successful career with this unique brand of pass heavy offense and he’s done it with unheralded guys at programs that were afterthoughts. This seems to be the perfect landing spot after a year away from coaching; Washington State has a solid senior quarterback in Jeff Tuel and a star wide receiver in Marquess Wilson. While the offensive line is prone to allowing sacks, this offense is designed to make quicker decisions and to alleviate some of the longer drops where the quarterback is most at risk.
This is a Cougars team that brings back a ton of experience. While they’ve been one of the worst BCS programs since 2008, they did show positive growth last season. They doubled their wins and most importantly were a profitable ATS team despite the fact their average line went from +19.7 to +4.6. Defensively they allowed 1.56 yards per carry less than in 2010 according to our ACCU-stats measure and they shaved four points per game off of their scoring totals defensively.
Again, they aren’t going to be mistaken for a team that wins with defense. But Leach’s squads at Texas Tech were built in a similar fashion and were largely competitive in a deeper and more talented conference precisely because of his offensive plan. His new team, which finished 14th in the nation in passing last year, should fit the bill nicely.
I suspect we’ll see a high scoring game here but Wazzu should be the perfect fit as an underdog. They have a high octane passing offense which can score in a hurry. That plays into our favor whether they simply need to trade scores throughout the game or try to come in the backdoor late.
CFB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
South Carolina at Vanderbilt
College football takes center stage Thursday night with seventeen games scheduled including South Carolina Gamecocks taking on Vanderbilt Commodores. Gamecocks completing an 11-2 (7-9 ATS) win effort last year averaging 30.1 points on 373.5 total yards/game figure to be even better this season as they return several key starters including Marcus Lattimore arguably the best back in college football. On the other side of the ball, Gamecocks finished third in the SEC in scoring defense surrendering 18.8 PPG while allowing 268.9 yards per contest. Commodores off a 6-7 (9-4 ATS) campaign scoring 26.7 PPG on 339.1 yds/game while allowing 21.6 PPG on 323.6 total yards return most of their offensive troops but have lost several key leaders on the defensive end including Casey Hayward (62 tackles, 7 INT). Gamecocks crushed Commodores 21-3 last season as 14.5 home favorites marking a third consecutive win over Vandy and 13th the past seventeen encounters (10-6-1 ATS).
NCAAF Week 1 Preview
Thursday's games
South Carolina won 10 of its last 12 games with SEC rival Vanderbilt, winning last three by average score of 19-7. Gamecocks won five of last six visits here (4-2 vs spread). This is smallest series pointspread since 2006, a Commodores have improved their program. Vandy was 3-0 as a home dog LY, after going 8-18 from '04-'10; their QB is Jordan Rodgers, brother of Packer QB Aaron- he started seven games LY. Carolina's QB is Connor Shaw, who was nine career starts. Gamecocks are 7-4-1 as a road favorite since '06.
Terry Bowden is the new coach at Akron, which is 5-31 last three years. Central Florida-Akron haven't met since 2004; Zips have eight starters back on offense, five on defense- they're 4-8 as home dogs over last three years. Akron's starting QB LY completed only 48% of his passes LY, which is awful, so not sure if he is still the starter. UCF has 8 starters back on both sides of ball; since '03, they're 7-13 as a road favorite and will have a new QB. One candidate is Tyler Gabbert, brother of Blaine.
Underdogs covered seven of last nine Eastern Michigan-Ball State games, with Ball State winning five of last six. Last three series games have been decided by three or less points. Eastern had 570 rushing yards last two meetings, but split the pair. Ball has 8 tarters back on offense; their QB has 22 career starts, so they're strong there, especially with four starters back on OL. EMU is 8-5 as a road dog last two years; they've got nine starters back on offense and a QB with 27 career starts. Ball State is 1-7 as a home favorite since Brady Hoke left town.
Texas A&M-Louisiana Tech game has been postponed because of the tropical storm. Game will be made up on October 13.
UMass is playing its first game in I-A; they lost 42-37 at Michigan two years ago, 45-17 at Boston College LY; UMass QB Pagel is son of Colts' alum Mike Pagel; he had nine TDs, nine INT LY. Minutemen have had negative turnover ratio four years in row, while going 23-22. UConn has 8 starters back on defense, 6 on offense; over last decade, they're 30-20 as a favorite, 20-15 at home. Huskies have three starters back on the OL; they're +20 in turnovers the last two seasons.
First game at UCLA for former NFL coach Mora, with 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense. Bruins have Nebraska coming to Rose Bowl next week, better not be looking ahead here-- this is first time since '09 they're favored to win a road game (2-0 as road fave under Neuheisel). Rice is 10-26 last three years, but 13-7-1 vs spread as home underdog since 2006. Owls lost six starters on both sides of ball, but their junior QB has started ten games. They lost four starters on offensive line.
Mike Leach is new coach at Washington State, so we know Coogs will be throwing the ball; State has 7 starters back on both sides of ball, with three starters back on OL-- they were 7-4 as road dog last two seasons under Wulff, but they were 9-40 SU in his four years. Independent BYU is 19-13 as a home favorite since '06; they play archrival Utah in couple weeks, not sure they'll show everything here. BYU also has 7 starters back on both sides of ball, with a senior QB who has 17 career starts.
UNLV is starting a redshirt freshman QB, as they try to turn around a program that is 4-21 SU under Hauck, but 6-2-1 vs spread as home dog. Home side has covered 20 of their last 24 games. Rebels have 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense, with their whole OL back. Minnesota is 7-13 as a favorite since '07, losing 11 of last 15 road games SU. Gophers have six starters back on both sides of ball, with athletic senior QB who has also played some WR- they've got three sophs, two juniors starting on OL. It'll take some onions to lay 8 points on road with Gophers.
UT-San Antonio-South Alabama game has been moved to Saturday due to the tropical storm. This is both teams' first game in I-A.
Armadillosports.com
What Bettors Need to Know: Thursday's NCAAF action
Covers.com
The NCAA football season kicks off Thursday with 17 games on the schedule for bettors to choose from. We give you the essential tidbits on five of them to make your wagers.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at UNLV Runnin' Rebels (+8.5, 50)
Jerry Kill's first season as the head coach in Minnesota resulted in a 3-9 record. Kill, a kidney cancer survivor, suffered two seizures last year, including one on the field against New Mexico State on Sept. 10. Minnesota ranked 110th in total offense in 2011 and will rely heavily on senior quarterback MarQueis Gray to improve the offense this season.
UNLV’s passing offense ranked 118th out of 120 FBS programs with an average of just 109.6 YPG. If quarterback Caleb Herring doesn’t show he’s improved since last season, 6-foot-5 freshman Nick Sherry could get a shot at running the offense.
Washington State Cougars at Brigham Young Cougars (-13.5, 62)
Mike Leach became well known for his "Air Raid" offense while at Texas Tech and will bring similar schemes to Washington State this season. The Cougars ranked ninth in the nation in passing (322.3 YPG) last season and should only improve on that mark under the tutelage of Leach.
BYU is coming off of a 10-3 season and has a returning starter at quarterback. Senior Riley Nelson, who went 6-1 in games he started last season, is already considered a candidate for the 2012 Davey O'Brien Award.
UCLA Bruins at Rice Owls (+15.5, 56)
Jim Mora Jr's first game as a college head coach is on the road against Rice. The Bruins are 60-28-5 all-time in season openers, but are still searching for a No. 1 quarterback to lead the offense this season. Senior Richard Brehaut is the most likely candidate for the starting gig, but Kevin Prince and redshirt freshman Brett Hundley have been impressive in camp.
The Owls missed the bowl season for the third consecutive season and finished fourth in the C-USA's West Division last year. Head coach David Bailiff spent a significant amount of time reviewing Arizona State tape with his players to break down the schemes that Noel Mazzone, UCLA’s new offensive coordinator, used during his tenure with the Sun Devils.
South Carolina Gamecocks (9) at Vanderbilt Commodores (+7, 46)
South Carolina quarterback Connor Shaw missed most of practice Thursday because of back spasms, just a week before the ninth-ranked Gamecocks open the season at Vanderbilt. Shaw is a junior beginning his first full season as starting quarterback. He took over last fall for Stephen Garcia, who was dismissed from the program.
Running back Warren Norman will see his first game action since Oct. 30, 2010, because of injuries. Remember, Norman broke Herschel Walker’s SEC single-season freshman all-purpose yardage record in 2009 and should be a force this season for Vandy.
Central Florida Knights at Akron Zips (+23.5, 46.5)
The Knights hold a 21-12 record in openers and have won their last six. The Knights went 5-7 in 2011 with a 3-5 mark in Conference USA. Central Florida had six selections to the C-USA All-Freshman Team, marking the most by a league school since 2008.
The Zips have six quarterbacks on their roster, five of which are either freshmen or redshirt freshmen. The only pivot with collegiate experience is senior Dalton Williams, who was the backup quarterback at Stephen F. Austin from 2008-11. The Zips are 3-0 all-time when hosting the Knights.
College Football Betting Preview: Boise St at Michigan St
By Erin Rynning
Sportsmemo.com
It’s difficult to write off Boise State in this contest as a +7 underdog. All they’ve done over the seven year tenure of head coach Chris Petersen is produce a 73-6 record. Keep in mind they’ve also beaten Oregon, Virginia Tech and Georgia in their last three season openers. Of course, the immense question in this clash is what Boise will bring to the table after huge losses on both sides of the football. No question, this is a much, much different team than at any time under Petersen. The Broncos have to replace quarterback Kellen Moore who posted the best record of any signal caller in college football history, along with five other starters. Redshirt junior Joe Southwick was recently named the starter. Meanwhile, the losses on defense are jarring with nine of BSU’s top 10 tacklers gone from 2011.
Michigan State suffered offseason losses as well including quarterback Kirk Cousins. Junior Andrew Maxwell was a member of the Elite 11 quarterback development program and has spent two years being groomed to fill Cousin’s shoes. There are some questions regarding his supporting cast however. The offense returns only five starters and the wide receiver position was gutted. On defense, the Spartans appear loaded even with the loss of NFL second round draft choice Jerel Worthy. Eight starters are back from a unit that led the Big Ten in total defense last year (277.4 ypg allowed).
I expect these squads to play a conservative style on offense. Both coaches will want to keep the ball on the ground to take the pressure off their new quarterbacks. The Spartans will especially look to run the ball up the middle with Boise replacing its entire defensive front. This will be a difficult test for the Boise offense as the Spartans allowed just 18 points per game last year, and may be even better in 2012. I’ll side with the UNDER in what has the potential to be a very low scoring game.
South Carolina at Vanderbilt: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
South Carolina Gamecocks at Vanderbilt Commodores (+6.5, 45.5)
Ninth-ranked South Carolina, which has a legitimate shot at its first SEC championship, jumps right into conference play Thursday when it visits Vanderbilt in the season opener. The Gamecocks have won 17 of 21 meetings over the Commodores, including last year’s 21-3 home victory. Vanderbilt, however, is a program on the rise under second-year coach James Franklin.
The Commodores are coming off only the fifth bowl appearance in school history, and feature a slew of offensive stars led by quarterback Jordan Rodgers, younger brother of the Green Bay Packers' Aaron Rodgers. South Carolina figures to test Vanderbilt’s questionable defense with a heavy dose of running back Marcus Lattimore, a Heisman candidate who looks healthy after tearing his ACL last October. Lattimore had 150 total yards and two touchdowns in last season’s matchup.
TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: South Carolina -6.5. Oddsmakers opened this line at seven points but it has since been moved to 6.5 and even 6. The total is 45.5 at most offshore books, though most Las Vegas books have the line set at 45.
ABOUT VANDERBILT (2011: 6-7, 2-6 SEC): Running back Zac Stacy is the centerpiece of a potent offense. He ran for 1,193 yards and 14 TDs last season while averaging 5.9 yards per carry. Rodgers is a dual threat who ran for 420 yards last year. His favorite target is Jordan Matthews, who caught 41 balls for 778 yards and five TDs last year. The Commodores have an underrated offensive line anchored by versatile junior tackle Wesley Johnson, who can also play guard and center. The defense lost several key contributors from a unit that ranked seventh in the SEC in points allowed (21.6).
ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA (2011: 11-2, 6-2 SEC): Junior quarterback Connor Shaw has won eight of his nine starts, the best nine-game record in the last 40 years of Gamecocks football. Lattimore, who led the team with 818 rushing yards despite missing half of last season, said he is not thinking about the injury anymore and won’t change his power running style. With star wide receiver Alshon Jeffery gone to the NFL, coach Steve Spurrier plans to ride Lattimore and a fierce defense led by ends Jadaveon Clowney (eight sacks) and Devin Taylor (six). South Carolina allowed 18.4 points last season, third-fewest in the SEC.
BETTING TRENDS
Gamecocks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Thursday games.
Commodores are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Commodores are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
Under is 8-3 in Gamecocks last 11 games overall.
Over is 5-0 in Commodores last 5 home games.
Under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The Gamecocks have won nine of 11 games against Vanderbilt in Nashville.
2. Rodgers completed only 50 percent of his throws last season. He was 108-of-216 for 1,524 yards with nine touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
3. The 6-foot-6, 256-pound Clowney forced five fumbles and made 12 tackles for loss as a freshman and was named Freshman of the Year by SEC coaches.
South Carolina at Vanderbilt
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Matchup: South Carolina at Vanderbilt
Venue: Vanderbilt Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee (FieldTurf)
Date: Thursday, August 30
Time/TV: 7:00 p.m. ET - ESPN
Line: South Carolina -6.5
Over/Under: 45
These SEC East rivals met in late September last season with both teams sitting at 3-0. South Carolina was a 15 1/2-point favorite in the game but Vanderbilt kept the game close by getting four interceptions from then South Carolina starting quarterback Stephen Garcia. The Vanderbilt defense also held running back Marcus Lattimore in check but South Carolina delivered a dominant defensive game holding the Commodores to 77 net yards and getting six sacks, winning 21-3 to narrowly cover but with overwhelming yardage advantages.
This was a bit of a changing of the guard game for both teams as Garcia was replaced by Connor Shaw late in the game and after another poor game from Garcia the following week in a loss at home vs. Auburn, Shaw took over the starting role the rest of the season. Now a junior, Shaw will be the firm starter this season for the Gamecocks although he will be without his top receiver from 2011, as Alshon Jeffery is now lining up for the Chicago Bears.
Vanderbilt also made a QB change in this game last season as Jordan Rodgers, younger brother of the reigning NFL MVP (Aaron), took over after senior Larry Smith was knocked out of the game in the third quarter. Smith and Rodgers split time the next two weeks as Vanderbilt fell from 3-0 to 3-3 with losses to Alabama and Georgia following up the loss to South Carolina. Smith only got token appearances the rest of the season until the bowl game as Rodgers proved to be a capable leader, taking Vanderbilt to the postseason after a 6-6 regular season. Rodgers in his senior season brings some optimism for a Vanderbilt team that returns a great deal of experience on both sides of the ball.
Coming off an 11-2 season, the expectations remain very high for South Carolina but there are just eleven returning starters on this team. The strength of the team should lie in the trenches as the defensive line should be one of the best units in the conference if not the nation and while the offensive line is younger this season, it should be a solid unit. Lattimore is back from injury for his junior season as he looks to get back to the huge 2010 numbers he posted before going down to the knee setback. The receiving corps won't be as explosive without Jeffery but Shaw could have a more efficient season in the passing game. The one area of concern for this team may be in the secondary where there is not much experience after losing 1st round NFL pick Stephon Gilmore.
Vanderbilt was certainly not expected to be a bowl team last season but getting big wins early in the year over Connecticut and Mississippi made it possible. None of the six wins came against teams that had winning records but Vanderbilt was very competitive in several SEC games, losing by five to Georgia (28-33), by three to Arkansas (28-31), by five to Florida (21-26), and by six (21-27) in overtime to Tennessee.
This year the schedule is tougher and for a team that is 3-13 on the road the last three seasons it will take more than one road win to approach bowl eligibility this year. Injuries have taken an early toll as versatile RB Zac Stacy and tight end Austin Monahan have been limited in recent practices but last season proved to this team that they could compete in the SEC.
Historically South Carolina has dominated this series, going 16-4 straight up and 13-6-1 against the spread as these teams have met every year since 1992. Vanderbilt last won (24-17) in 2008 and the Commodores are actually 5-4-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Only twice in the last four years has South Carolina been this steep of a road favorite, both of those instances coming in the last two trips to Nashville with the Gamecocks being upset in 2008 and winning 21-7 as 12-point in 2010. Vanderbilt was 3-0 ATS as a home underdog last season but is just 10-17 ATS and 3-24 SU as home underdogs since 2004. The 2008 win in this matchup as +9.5 underdogs is the only instance since 1998 when Vanderbilt has won outright as a home underdog of a touchdown or more.
This spread opened South Carolina as a 6½-point favorite with limited availability back in early August but moved to 7 shortly thereafter. It briefly hit 7 ½ at some outlets in mid-August but was mainly solid at -7 until recently dropping to -6½ at many outlets this week.
The total opened at 46½ before falling down to 45 in the last few days. Money-line pricing opened South Carolina around minus-270 (Bet $270 to win $100) and is now priced at around -300 at most outlets. The halftime line can mainly be found at -4 with the total hovering around 23 points.
Other Games of Betting Interest
Central Florida (-23.5) at Akron: Terry Bowden returns to the sidelines but it should be a difficult debut with a loaded UCF squad visiting. Bowden's glowing career record of 47-17-1 will likely take a big hit inheriting a Zips team that went 1-11 in 2011. The Knights were among the favorites in Conference USA but a postseason ban for NCAA infractions has put a damper on the season although this is a deep, experienced team that will be gunning for a much bigger Ohio (Buckeyes) school next week. Noteworthy Trend: Akron is 4-9 ATS the last 13 games as a home underdog.
Eastern Michigan (+3.5) at Ball State: This was a wildly entertaining game last season (for the 3,288 in attendance) and this will be a critical game in the MAC standings as both of these teams went 6-6 in 2011 and have sights set on a bowl bid. Ball State won 33-31 last year trading late field goals and that dramatic finish followed a 41-38 overtime win for Eastern Michigan in 2010. Both teams have veteran quarterbacks leading experienced offenses but there are questions on defense. Noteworthy Trend: Ball State is 1-7 ATS as a home favorite since 2009.
Massachusetts (+24.5) at Connecticut: The Minutemen debut at the FBS level and it could be a tough transition year with limited experience on offense and a redshirt freshman starting at QB. The first season for Paul Pasqualoni at Connecticut saw the school end of a four-year bowl run for the Huskies but this should be a greatly improved team that could emerge as a sleeper in the wide open Big East. Noteworthy Trend: Connecticut is 13-6-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite since 2003.
UCLA (-16) at Rice: Former Falcons and Seahawks coach Jim Mora takes over at UCLA and while the Bruins face a typical difficult schedule this is a veteran team that has underachieved in recent years, in part due to injuries. Opening on the road is never easy and Rice was 4-1 SU at home last season, which included a win over Purdue. The Owls don't have a lot of experience this season so expectations should be grounded in the Houston area. Noteworthy Trend: Rice is 29-14-1 ATS as a home underdog since 1996.
Washington State (+12.5) at BYU: Mike Leach taking over at Washington State steals the headlines in this matchup but BYU is coming off a 10-3 season and the Cougars now have five seasons with at least 10 wins in the last six years. The schedule is a bit tougher this season including four challenging road games and this is one of three games vs. the Pac-12 this season. Making radical scheme changes is not typically a formula for instant success but Washington State is coming off an encouraging season, and if nothing else will be more interesting this year. Noteworthy Trend: Washington State is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games as double-digit underdog.
Minnesota (-8.5) at UNLV: It is only the second season for Jerry Kill at Minnesota but the confidence of the fan base was shaken in the first season with losses to New Mexico State and North Dakota State. The Gophers did play USC very tough and beat Iowa and Illinois late in the season and MarQueis Gray returns as the tall athletic signal-caller. UNLV is 4-21 the last two seasons but the Rebels have been a respectable performer in home games with a 6-2-1 ATS mark as a home 'dog and the offense has returning starters on the entire offensive line. Noteworthy Trend: UNLV is 19-10 ATS as a home underdog since 2003.
College Football Betting: Added Game Previews
By Rob Veno
Sportsmemo.com
Towson at Kent State -7 - Lot of respect for Towson who unexpectedly took the CAA by storm last year. Kent State has a strong defense and feels it’s a bit better offensively this season but still, don't see a real talent gap here. Towson's balanced and explosive offense with eight of its pieces back plus more experienced defense makes them a threat. Power Ratings made this a pick-em. Recommendation: Took a small piece of Towson +7
Southeast Missouri State at Central Michigan -26 - No real interest here but do think that CMU will rise up and become competitive again in MAC this year behind QB Radcliff and receiving weapons (bumped them +2.5 in my PR this year). SEMO is not OVC trash and they have Ohio U. sophomore transfer Kyle Snyder at QB so his knowledge of Chippewas will help in game prep. They are run heavy and decent at it so if they have success, clock grinding makes +26 look large. Think their defense may get toasted through the air early and often though. Recommendation: None
Northern Colorado at Utah -42 - Northern really optimistic about this season based on more competitive 2nd half of 2011 and deeper offseason commitment but let's face it, they were 0-11 and 0-8 in Big West. Utes are PAC-12's third best team and Top 25 caliber so they can do whatever they want here. Recommendation: None
McNeese State at Middle Tennessee -7 - If only I had full trust in MTSU because my feeling here is oddmakers have vastly overvalued or undervalued one of these teams in arriving at this number. Blue Raiders are much better personnel wise and my PR suggest they should be -13. I hemmed and hawed a while ago and quickly discussed my reservations with Erin Rynning but can't resist and just now found my way to it. Recommendation: Light stance with Middle Tennessee -7
Southern Utah at Utah State -20.5 - Watch Seattle Seahawks preseason football and if you didn't know who RB Robert Turbin and LB Bobby Wagner were, then you know now how much they helped Utah State. Think the Aggies can overcome loss of Turbin because RB stable had excess talent but we'll have to see how they fill in for Wagner. I expect them to be even better this season because QB Chuckie Keeton is a gem and the defense appears deeper. Laying -20.5 here could be dicey against an in-state Southern Utah team with the FCS’s top NFL QB prospect, Nick Sorensen, but these offenses are at different familiarity levels. Keeton knows his skill guys and Sorensen lost all of his. Situation leads me to USU but power ratings (Utah State -16.5) keep me grounded saying this could be an overlay. Recommendation: None
Sacramento State at New Mexico State -7 - Certainly the most volatile or more likely, the most deceptive of the added board line moves as NMSU went from -4.5 down to -3 and then up as high as -7. My Power Ratings love the Aggies here as they indicate -13. Another case of potential over-value colliding with under-value as New Mexico State returns only 8 starters (I include QB Manley) and CSS is unveiling their new no-huddle under the direction of 1st year OC Paul Peterson. I don't mind the small number of returning for NMSU because HC Dwayne Walker is making incremental progress with this program. If you really want to talk about new, Sac State has 42 new players on its roster and this team wasn't any good last year. I think the power ratings are right here and the ascension is worth playing against the overhaul. Recommendation: I've got New Mexico State -6.5 for a couch and TV type of play
Eastern Washington at Idaho -5 - My favorite play of the bunch tonight as the Eagles bring in another one of June Jones' backup QBs from SMU. Kyle Padron takes over for Bo Levi Mitchell who put up huge numbers last season but a slow start, banged up OL and a defensive slide saw them fall from 2010 FCS champs to 6-5. Padron has a trio of WR weapons who all went over 1,000 yards receiving last year and August camp shows the OL now healthy and defense markedly improved. Idaho meanwhile is contemplating a move down to FCS status next season and the matchup of their secondary against EWU's passing attack seems quite a bit overwhelming. Recommendation: Made Eastern Washington +5 my top FCS play tonight.
Northern Arizona at Arizona State -25.5 - By all offseason accounts right up until now, NAU is ready to unleash their dynamic offense which can successfully throw it around and lean on junior Zach Bauman who had 1,435 yards last year. The question here is not can they score 20 against ASU but can they prevent the Sun Devils from lining up mauling them in the trenches. ASU RB Cameron Marshall should have 200+ all-purpose yards here and the task of having to prepare for different style QBs in HC Todd Graham's system is too much to ask of this Lumberjack defense. Still, I'm not laying -25.5 in their first time out and I'm not taking it with a severely outmanned defense. Recommendation: None