Wisconsin Badgers Heavy Favorites Over UNLV
By: Michael Robinson
The Wisconsin Badgers kick off a season of extremely high expectations when they host the UNLV Rebels on Thursday night.
The Don Best odds screen has Wisconsin as big 35½-point favorites with a total of 56 points. Kickoff from very loud Camp Randall Stadium will be at 8:00 p.m. (ET).
Wisconsin is the +140 co-favorite to win the Big Ten, taking advantage of Ohio State’s (+500) turmoil. Those two teams are in the Leaders Division, while Big 12 transfer Nebraska (+140) headlines the Legends. The division winners will meet in the first-ever conference title game in Indianapolis.
The Badgers are ranked No. 11 in the preseason AP Poll, but some feel that’s low after a trip to the Rose Bowl last year and the addition of quarterback Russell Wilson from NC State. The initial Don Best Oddsmaker Poll agrees with the Badgers being underrated, ranking them tied for sixth along with Boise State.
Wilson comes with much fanfare despite his just one-year of eligibility. Fans envision a Cam Newton-type impact after seeing Wilson throw for 6,590 yards and 59 touchdowns the last two years. He has much more natural ability than the departed Scott Tolzien, although Tolzien ran the offense to perfection and was very accurate (72.9 completion percentage).
Running the offense at Wisconsin usually means handing the ball off. The offense ranked 12th in the NCAA last year in rushing (245.7 YPG) and 75th in passing (199.5 YPG). Those numbers will change some with Wilson aboard, but pounding the ball with James White and Montee Ball is top priority.
Wilson could struggle early in the season as he only recently joined the team and isn’t used to being a secondary focus of the offense. The Badgers defense looks to make things easier for the ‘O’ and should be strong despite losing five starters.
The Badgers have some of the rowdiest fans in the nation, especially for night games. They were perfect at home last year at 7-0 straight-up, while going 4-3 against the spread.
Mountain West Conference UNLV went 2-11 SU and 5-8 ATS in coach Bobby Hauck’s first season. The offense was third-worst in the nation in total yards (274.2 YPG) and the defense was 12th-worst (450.5 YPG). That’s about as bad as it gets.
The ‘over’ was 7-2-against the betting total in UNLV’s final 10 games last season.
Sophomore quarterback Caleb Herring is the starter. He played in eight games behind Omar Clayton last year and showed some promise at 28-of-56 passing (50 percent) for 365 yards, 4 TDs and three picks. This is Herring’s first career start and it can’t come at a much tougher venue.
Herring will look toward last year’s leading receiver Phillip Payne (689 yards). He’s been upgraded to probable with his foot injury. Second-leading receiver Michael Johnson (571 receiving yards) is another weapon along with Marcus Sullivan. Getting protection from this raw offensive line is the biggest question.
The defense will be relying on internal improvement and some junior college transfers. The unit is better off with an extra man in the box and taking its chances with Wilson on play-action.
The Rebels were 0-7 SU and ATS on the road last year, losing by an average score of 46-11. They’re 14-37-2 in their last 53 road games overall.
This is the sixth meeting between the teams since 2002. The Rebels are 4-0 ATS in the last four, including a 41-21 home loss last year as 20½-point ‘dogs. UNLV was outgained 475-217 in total yards, but scored the only touchdown in the fourth quarter for the ‘cover.’
That touchdown also pushed the game ‘over’ the 55-point total. The ‘under’ was 4-0 in the previous four meetings.
The last two games in Madison were in 2003 and 2004. UNLV went 2-0 ATS and even won 23-5 as a 20-point ‘dog in 2003.
UNLV at Wisconsin
By Christian Alexander
After a summer full of NFL lockout talk, it sure is nice to get back to football…college football that is. Hard to believe the 2011 season is just days away but I couldn’t be more ready. Seriously, the women’s World Cup was exciting but I’m ready to move on.
Speaking of exciting, the programming gods at ESPN started the season with a fumble for this Thursday night opener. UNLV at Wisconsin? A 35 ½-point spread? What? Were the rights to the New Hampshire-Toledo game out of their price range?
I suppose we should just look at the bright side. Quarterback Russell Wilson, who transferred to Madison after three seasons at N.C. State, has been the talk of college football recently. There are a number of folks who think that Wilson, who started 36 games for the Wolfpack, could be the piece the Badgers need to make a run at the BCS Championship.
Prior to Wilson’s announcement, quarterback did figure to be somewhat of a question mark for coach Bret Bielema. Gone was Scott Tolzien, an underappreciated signal caller who completed over 72 percent of his passes and went 21-5 in two seasons as a starter in Madison. Wisconsin knew it had plenty of offense returning with six starters back, especially with the electric running back combo of James White and Montee Ball but the addition of Wilson should add a dimension that makes this offense especially dangerous.
The other side of the ball is a bit of a different story for the Badgers. True, Wisconsin does return six starters on defense but the five they lost include critical pieces such as defensive end J.J. Watt and cornerback Niles Brinkley.
Any complaints from Bielema would just be minor quibbles, especially after the gift of Wilson fell into his lap. UNLV coach Bobby Hauck can only dream of having the “problems” that his counterpart at Wisconsin is facing this season. Hauck, who compiled an 80-17 record in seven seasons at Montana, including a trip to the I-AA title game three times, is in the midst of a full blown rebuilding project in Sin City.
The last time the Rebels had a winning season was back in 2000, when John Robinson led the program to an 8-5 record. That type of season must seem a long way off for Hauck, who suffered through a 2-10 season during his maiden voyage in Vegas.
But Hauck seems to be rebuilding the right way – by giving plenty of experience to younger players. In fact, UNLV has 23 freshmen and sophomores on their two-deep heading into this Thursday night. Eventually that talent will mature and the experience and growing pains will pay dividends.
Those growing pains will be on full display this Thursday night in Madison. The Rebels, who return seven starters on offense and four on defense, have added some nice junior college transfers including LB Princeton Jackson, CB Ken Spigner and S Dre Crawford. Those three should help fill some gaping holes on a defensive unit that surrendered nearly 40 points a game last season.
On offense, signal caller Caleb Herring picked up some decent experience last year by appearing in eight of UNLV’s 13 games. That playing time should serve him well in 2011 as should the talents of sophomore RB Tim Cornett and WRs Phillip Payne and Marcus Sullivan.
If the defense can take a step in the right direction – actually two or three steps would be best – then this team might be a bit more competitive than the experts are predicting. UNLV’s current season win total is sitting at 2½ victories.
Being competitive this Thursday might be asking a bit much, however.
A quick look at other Thursday night games
Miss. State (-29) at Memphis: Yikes, another large number. Bulldogs return a lot of talent on offense, including an improving QB in Chris Relf and dangerous RB Vick Ballard. Memphis has only won three games over the past two years and that might not improve much this season. Larry Porter is installing a new offense and there should be a number of “learning experiences” in this one.
Wake Forest at Syracuse (-6.5): The ‘Cuse executed quite the turnaround last season, improving from 4-8 in 2009 to 8-5 last year. However, some key players from last year are gone so it remains to be seen if additional improvement can be made in 2011. Wake’s defense was a disaster last year, allowing 35.8 points a game. Coach Grobe made that area a priority in the off-season and I anticipate a much tougher team this fall.
Bowling Green at Idaho (-7): Dave Clawson is still getting things turned around for the Falcons. He will be helped by having seven starters back on both offense and defense. Idaho will have to deal with a new QB for the first time since 2006 as Nathan Enderle finally used up all his eligibility. Look for senior Brian Reader under center for the Vandals.
Kentucky (-19) at Western Kentucky: Kentucky’s offense was decimated by graduation and there will be new faces at all the skill positions. The Hilltoppers were just 2-10 in 2010 but return senior RB Bobby Rainey who will no doubt be the workhorse of this offense. This game will be played in Nashville.
NCAAF Week 1
UNLV is 0-10 vs spread as a road underdog the last two years. Wisconsin has 12 rookies in NFL training camps, four more than any school in country, but somehow got NC State transfer Wilson to step in and play QB for one year, after Wolfpack basically cut him- he is very good. Badgers are 7-8 in last 15 games as a home favorite, but since 2005, they’re 16-9-1 vs spread in non-league games. UNLV (+20.5) lost 41-21 at home to Wisconsin LY, getting outrushed 278-112; total yardage was 475-138. UNLV is breaking in a new QB and has only four starters back on defense.
Mississippi State has senior QB with 13 starts, three senior starters on OL; they’re 4-1 in last five tries as road favorites, but they also open SEC play at Auburn next week, so will keep it close to best here, vs Memphis club they’ve beaten eight times in row, covering last five. Memphis is 8-12 as home dog last five years, 3-7 last two years; none of their QB’s have thrown a college pass. Tigers have only three starters back on offense, with four new starters on OL. Not good.
Syracuse went 8-5 LY, after being 14-45 in five years before that; Orange are 7-4 as home favorite since ’06, are 8-2 vs spread in non-conference games under Marrone- they have 8 starters back on offense, including four on OL. Syracuse has only five starters back on defense. Wake (-14) beat Syracuse 20-10 in only meeting five years ago. Deacons have 17 of 22 starters back, with four senior starters on OL; Grobe is just 3-10 as road dog the last four years, after being 17-7 from 2001-06. Wake opens ACC play next week at home vs NC State.
Idaho (even) beat Bowling Green 43-42 in bowl game in Boise two years ago; Falcons then went 2-10 LY playing a freshman QB, but they have seven starters back on both sides of ball. Since 2006, BG is 15-6 vs spread as road underdog, 8-5 in last 13 non-league games. Idaho is 3-6 as home favorite under Akey, but they’ve covered nine of last ten non-WAC games. Vandals have only four starters back on offense, but they’ve got senior QB who threw 71 passes LY (2 starts) and three starters back on OL.
FIU won its last four games vs North Texas by average score of 37-17, covering last three as a favorite; Panthers have 15 starters back from 7-6 team that beat Toledo in FIU’s first-ever bowl – they’re 2-5 as a home favorite last two years, and have TV game at Louisville on Friday. North Texas has new coach in former Iowa State mentor McCarney; UNT has new QB and only two starters back on OL- they’re 7-5 as road underdog last two years, playing pass-happy offense. McCarney will run ball more. UNT is 14-23 vs spread in Sun Belt games the last five years.
Trying to figure out why Kentucky-Western Kentucky game is in Nashville, in a different state; Wildcats won previous two meetings, 63-28 (-24)/41-3 (-21). UK was 4-1 as favorite in Phillips’ first year as HC; Wildcats have 10 starters back on defense, but have new starting QB who did start in 27-10 bowl loss LY. Hilltoppers are only in 4th season of I-A ball; they’re 15-15 vs spread as an underdog, 10-9 on road- they’ve got 15 starters back, a junior QB (20 starts) and three starters back on OL (only one senior).