LSU Tigers Open Week 3 At Mississippi St Bulldogs
By: Michael Robinson
The LSU Tigers and Mississippi State Bulldogs kick off Week 3 of college football with a top-25, SEC West slugfest on Thursday night. The updated Don Best odds screen has LSU as 3½-point road favorites with the college football betting total pending.
ESPN will broadcast from Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi at 8:00 p.m. (ET).
Both teams will be playing on a rare four day’s rest. LSU has the advantage because it hosted FCS Northwestern State on Saturday. The 49-3 final alowed coach Les Miles to rest a lot of starters with a 28-3 halftime lead. That helped Northwestern State ‘cover’ as 49-point road ‘dogs and also kept the game ‘under’ the 56½-point total.
The Tigers are now 2-0 straight up and 1-1 against the spread. They had an extremely impressive opening week win (40-27) against then No. 3 Oregon. LSU is tied with the Ducks for seventh in The Don Best Linemakers Poll and ranked No. 3 in the latest AP Poll.
Mississippi State (1-1 SU and ATS) is likely to be more tired after a 41-34 loss at Auburn. The Bulldogs almost came back from a 41-27 fourth quarter deficit, but quarterback Chris Relf was stopped running inside the 1-yard line as time expired. Mississippi State was actually 5½-point road favorites as Auburn was fortunate to beat lowly Utah State the week before.
LSU’s game plan this week will not change, namely rely on the running game and defense. The Bayou Bengals are ranked just 41st in the country in rushing (175 YPG), but have a great combo of Michael Ford (168 yards) and Spencer Ware (119 yards) and showed their strength versus Oregon (175 yards). Ware is the early-down back and he’ll be fresh with just six carries last week.
Senior quarterback Jarrett Lee only played the first half last week as Miles wanted to get game reps for junior college transfer Zach Mettenberger. Lee was 9-of-10 passing against Northwestern State, after an up-and-down 10-of-22 against Oregon. He is still a question mark after taking over for suspended starter Jordan Jefferson.
One player who Lee won’t be throwing to is Russell Shepard. The starting receiver will serve one more game of his suspension, returning Sept. 24 at West Virginia.
LSU will be playing its first true road game this year, with the Oregon game taking place at Cowboys Stadium. It went 2-2 SU and ATS on the road last year and is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a road favorite.
The ‘over’ is 13-4 in its last 17 games as a road favorite.
Mississippi State dropped from 16th to 25 in the AP with the Auburn loss, but Relf and the offense can’t be blamed. It rolled up 531 total yards after 645 against Memphis in the opener (59-14 win). Total offense (588 YPG) now ranks fifth in the country.
The senior Relf is extremely comfortable in coach Dan Mullen’s spread offense. He’s averaging 199 YPG through the air and 79 on the ground. Vick Ballard (301 yards) and speedster LaDarius Perkins (83 yards) are a good duo at running back, but LSU’s rush defense is very stout, ranked eighth in the nation (46 YPG).
Injuries could also make running the ball harder for Mississippi State. Left tackle James Carmon (leg) and center Quentin Saulsberry (knee) were both hurt last week. The former is expected to be out, while the latter is listed as questionable. The backups for both seniors are redshirt freshmen.
The Bulldogs’ run defense hasn’t been nearly as good at 200 YPG (99th nationally). That includes getting burned for 235 yards at Auburn. They have an entire new starting linebacker corps from last year, when they were 15th in the country (119.1 YPG). Expect LSU to run it early and often to test this area.
Mississippi State went 5-2 SU and 3-4 ATS at home last year. That was part of a 9-4 SU season and No. 15 final AP ranking. It will be an electric atmosphere with the Thursday night home game on national television.
LSU has beaten Mississippi State the last 11 meetings (8-3 ATS). The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in the last eight in Starkville, although they barely survived 30-26 as 12-point favorites back in 2009. A goal line stand secured the win in the final minute.
The ‘over’ is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the teams. It did go ‘under’ the 45-point total last year in Baton Rouge (29-7 LSU win).
Weather is expected to be in the 70s with isolated thunderstorms possible.
LSU at Mississippi State: What Bettors Need to Know
LSU Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs (+3.5, 49)
THE STORY: No. 25 Mississippi State has had increased success in coach Dan Mullen’s tenure, but has not been able to ascend in the brutal Southeastern Conference West Division. After last week's disheartening loss at Auburn, the Bulldogs have yet to beat anyone other than Ole Miss in their division under Mullen.
No. 3 LSU hopes to keep that streak alive and solidify its reputation as a top-tier national title contender. But the Tigers will have to do it in what will be a raucous, cowbell-infused atmosphere in Starkville, Miss. LSU had five interceptions and kicked five field goals to beat the Bulldogs 29-7 last season in Baton Rouge. LSU has won 11 straight against Mississippi State by an average score of 39-13.
TV: ESPN
LINE MOVES: This spread opened with MSU as field-goal underdogs Thursday. That number has since been bet up to as high as 4.5 at some books. The total opened as high as 49 points and has dropped to 48.5.
ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE (1-1, 0-1 SEC): Two starting offensive linemen, left tackle James Carmon and Quentin Saulsberry, went down in the Auburn game. Carmon (leg) is questionable for Thursday; Saulsberry (knee) is probable. The line is a major concern against an LSU run defense that is tops in the SEC. If the Bulldogs can’t get star running back Vick Ballard going on the ground, quarterback Chris Relf will be forced to attack through the air. He was responsible for two of last year’s five picks against LSU.
ABOUT LSU (2-0, 0-0 SEC): QB Jarrett Lee has thrown only 32 times this season, mostly because the Tigers have mauled their opponents on the ground, averaging 175 yards. Lee became the starter when senior Jordan Jefferson was suspended indefinitely after being charged in a bar brawl a week before the season opener. Lee stepped in and led the Tigers to an impressive win over Oregon. The senior was an ultra-efficient 9-of-10 for 133 yards and a touchdown in Saturday’s 49-3 win over Northwestern State.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. LSU has enjoyed a 9-1 advantage in turnovers in its last two games against Mississippi State.
2. Russell Shepard, LSU's top receiver, will miss the third and final game of his three-game suspension for violating NCAA rules.
3. Mississippi State is 15-5 in home openers since 1991, including three straight wins. Its last loss in a home opener, however, came against LSU 45-0 in 2007.
TRENDS:
- Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in Mississippi State.
- Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
- Tigers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
- Favorite is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
PREDICTION: LSU 23, Mississippi State 20 - The Bulldogs will put up a fight, but pulling off the upset with a banged-up offensive line that had only four days to rest is too much to ask.
NCAAF Week 3
While Mississippi State was losing 41-34 at Auburn on last play of the game last week, only five days ago, LSU had easy 49-3 win over I-AA foe. Bulldogs lost last 11 games to LSU, covering one of last five played here (lost 30-26 in 2009, after losing previous four series games here by combined 165-13 margin). LSU is 5-7-1 as road favorite since '06; they have 14 starters back from LY, but are using backup QB. Miss State is 6-4 as home dog since '08; they've got 16 starters back from LY.
LSU at Mississippi State
By Christian Alexander
Well, my nice start to the Thursday night season certainly went south in a hurry. Honestly, I know some 8th grade teams down here in South Florida who I’m sure could defend as well as Arizona did last week against Oklahoma State. Granted, you have to give the Cowboys and their offense a good bit of credit but the Wildcats – particularly in the 1st half – offered little to no resistance. And here I thought Mike Stoops was a solid defensive coach. Oh well, let’s limp into Week 3…
Speaking of a lack of defense, I’m guessing we’ll see some this Thursday night when the Bayou Bengals of Louisiana State University – better known as the LSU Tigers – pay a visit to Starkville, Mississippi to play the Mississippi State Bulldogs. LSU opened the season by facing off against Oregon – a team which had averaged 47 points a game in 2010. All the Tigers did was stifle the Ducks, holding them to 13 points through the first three quarters en route to an impressive 40-27 win.
However, despite the impressive start for the LSU defense, all the talk around the Tigers continues to center on its offense. QB Jordan Jefferson is still suspended indefinitely for his role in a fight this past August and WR Russell Shepard will miss this game while serving the end of a suspension for an NCAA rules infraction.
All that drama hasn’t seemed to slow down Coach Les Miles and crew, in fact they appear to thrive in it. Of course, it helps to have a very capable backup QB when you have to suspend your starter indefinitely. And LSU has just that with senior Jarrett Lee. If that name sounds familiar it’s because Lee has been getting meaningful snaps – for a multitude of reasons – since he was a redshirt freshman in 2008. While Jefferson is unquestionably the better athlete and adds another dimension with his running ability, Lee is the better passer.
Combining Lee’s arm with RB's Michael Ford and Spencer Ware and the LSU offense, which returns 8 starters on offense looks awfully strong.
There was a time when Mississippi State was known for their defense. But if last Saturday is any indication – and it most certainly should be – then those days are long gone. Just a week after Auburn needed a five star magic act to escape their home opener against Utah State, the Bulldogs traveled to the Plains as almost a touchdown favorite. The thinking was pretty simple: Clearly Auburn is a shell of its former self and Coach Dan Mullen is ready to take Mississippi State to the next level.
And while Auburn may indeed be significantly worse than last year, they certainly didn’t miss a beat against Mississippi State as Mike Dyer rushed for 150 yards and two touchdowns and Barrett Trotter – attempting to fill Cam Newton’s huge shoes – threw for 146 yards and two more touchdowns as Auburn held off a late rally for the win.
The loss has many reevaluating Mississippi State and the performance of their defense can’t be a positive sign for Dan Mullen as he contemplates how to slow down LSU. The good news is with a pair of seniors - quarterback Chris Relf and running back Vick Ballard – the Bulldogs do have a pair of dangerous offensive weapons. Behind that duo, which includes nine returning starters on offense, Mississippi State has averaged 321 rushing yards per game this season, good for sixth in the nation.
However, it goes without saying that Mississippi State hasn’t lined up against a defense with the skills of LSU. And it can’t help that LSU recently prepared, and was obviously very prepared, for Oregon, a team with a spread offense featuring a mobile QB (Darron Thomas) and talented RB (LaMichael James) just like the Bulldogs will present.
A Thursday night deep in SEC country – the conference opener for both teams and home opener for Miss. St. – should present a rowdy scene in Starkville. Mullin will need everyone of those cowbells ringing in order to spur his team to a win.