Cincinnati Bearcats Favored Over NC State Wolfpack
By: Jeff Grant
The North Carolina State Wolfpack (2-1) and Cincinnati Bearcats (2-1) will open up the fourth week of the 2011 college football season Thursday night. Kickoff for the prime-time event at Nippert Stadium is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. (ET) and will be televised on ESPN.
Cincinnati has been sent out as a strong favorite in the betting odds, opening at 6½ points and moving higher to eight. The total has yet to be released.
North Carolina State has failed to cover the spread in all three games this season, but has found a worthy replacement under center for the departed Russell Wilson who is now quarterbacking the No. 6 Wisconsin Badgers in the Don Best Linemakers Poll. Mike Glennon has completed 59-of-92 passes for 745 passing yards to go alongside eight touchdown passes and an interception.
The junior hasn’t faced the toughest of schedules, going up against Liberty and South Alabama in two of the three weeks.
The Wolfpack registered a 30-19 win over the Bearcats in last year’s meeting as 2-point home favorites, led by Wilson’s 26-of-40 performance for 333 yards and three passing touchdowns. The contest fell under the posted total of 54½.
Professional bettors are certainly aware of the Wolfpack’s success when getting points over the years, coming in with a 22-8-1 ATS mark in their last 31 games as an underdog.
Cincinnati has tallied lopsided home wins over Austin Peay (72-10) and Akron (59-14), but those opponents aren’t exactly top shelf competition. It’s important to note that the Bearcats did cover the number in each of those contests.
Suffering a 45-23 loss to the Tennessee Volunteers as 4-point road underdogs is the game to analyze when handicapping this matchup. Defensively, the Bearcats allowed Volunteers quarterback Tyler Bray to complete 34-of-41 passes for 405 yards and four touchdowns, which could present problems against a passer that just set the school record for completion percentage in a single game.
The Bearcats also have a talented player under center. Senior Zach Collaros is sixth on the team’s career passing yards list with 4,859, coming off a brief 157-yard performacne against the Zips last week.
Turnover margin was one of the key points of emphasis for the program during the offseason, finishing last year minus-15 in the category. Cincinnati has reversed that number in a big way, entering Thursday’s game with a plus-12 margin through just three games.
The Bearcats are in great position to win their 21st consecutive home non-conference game, a streak that dates back to a three-overtime, 30-24 win over Temple on Sept. 20, 2003.
First-half bettors will want to write down that Cincinnati has outscored its first two home opponents 90-0 in the opening 30 minutes this year. It could save backers a lot of heartache in the second half due to the team’s 0-4 ATS mark as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points.
NC State Wolfpack at Cincinnati Bearcats
By Andrew Lange
In NC State's lone step-up game, they went on the road as small favorites and lost 34-27 to Wake Forest. The offensive was effective as Russell Wilson's replacement, Mike Glennon, threw for 315 yards and three touchdowns. The defensive however was not as Wake moved the ball rather easily after netting a lone field goal in last year's meeting. Unfortunately, that type of performance may not have been an aberration. The Wolfpack have been crushed by injuries to the stop unit and until (if) they get healthy, this is going to be a real weakness. Head coach Tom O'Brien: "...It's been a tough season to play defense. We lost a corner to start the year, we lost our captain and best defensive lineman. We lost our next best defensive lineman. We lost a backup middle linebacker, lost a corner. Now we've lost another linebacker."
Some are expecting a turnaround from Cincinnati who fell from 12-1 under Brian Kelly to 4-8 in year one of the Butch Jones regime. Turnovers were a major factor as the Bearcats actually outgained conference foes but were -15 in TO margin on the season. Like NC State, I have no issues with the offense which showed fairly well (23 points, 396 yards, 6.6 ypp) in its loss at Tennessee. The problem for me is the defense as the Vols racked up 531 yards and quarterback Tyler Bray put on a clinic. Russell Wilson had a similar performance in last year's 30-19 Wolfpack win, tossing for 333 yards and three touchdowns. Glennon is more than capable of the same if Cinci allows him to sit in the pocket and play pitch-and-catch. The betting markets appear well aware of the questionable defenses, hence the strong move towards the over. Even with the injuries to NC State, I can't pull the trigger with Cincinnati in this price range.
N.C. State at Cincinnati
By Christian Alexander
Nice rebound win last Thursday night as I correctly predicted that the LSU defense would simply be too much for Mississippi State to handle. And ultimately that was the story in this game as the Bayou Bengals smothered the Bulldogs and won 19-6, easily covering the three point spread.
Speaking of Week 3 Thursday night college football games, it was during Week 3 in 2010 that Cincinnati paid a visit to Raleigh to face North Carolina State on a Thursday night – the first time ever that these two programs had met. In that game, Wolfpack quarterabck Russell Wilson threw for 333 yards and three touchdowns to propel NC State to a pretty easy 30-19 victory, giving the program its first 3-0 start since 2002.
Bearcats coach Butch Jones, in his first year at Cincinnati following Brian Kelly’s departure for Notre Dame, said of his team that night: "It's inexcusable, our players have got to play better, our coaches have got to coach better, everything in our program."
A year later, with Cincinnati and NC State both sitting at 2-1 and preparing to face each other this Thursday night, it’s interesting to note how much has changed in the year since these two programs first played.
For starters, Cincinnati is playing better. So far the Bearcats are 2-1 and while the victories haven’t been against the toughest opponents (Austin Peay & Akron), the average margin of victory has been over 53 points showing that Cincy is starting to get in a rhythm under Coach Jones and his new system. The lone loss for Cincinnati is certainly excusable considering it came at Neyland Stadium, home of the University of Tennessee.
Looking specifically at the progress made in the past year under Jones and his new schemes, the Bearcats offense has been clicking with QB Zach Collaros at the helm. The redshirt senior is the Big East's top returning passer and has weapons such as WR D.J. Woods and RB Isaiah Pead to give Cincy some of that dangerous offense that they were known for under Kelly.
Coach Tom O’Brien certainly knows what it’s like to have a dangerous QB under center – the only problem is that Russell Wilson is now taking snaps for the Wisconsin Badgers. O’Brien released the former Atlantic Coast Conference rookie of the year and all-league quarterback from his scholarship after he again skipped spring practice to play minor league baseball. It was a tough decision for O’Brien to make considering Wilson led the Wolfpack to a 9-4 finish and a bowl in 2010.
So now the Mike Glennon era has arrived at N.C. State. The brother of former Virginia Tech QB Sean Glennon, the redshirt senior won’t ever be mistaken for Wilson but so far has managed to play fairly mistake free football for O’Brien with eight touchdowns against only one interception. Glennon has a nice support system with WRs T.J. Graham and Tobias Palmer and a pair of talented running backs James Washington and Curtis Underwood.
Like Cincinnati, N.C. State has a pair of relatively easy wins against weak opponents in Liberty and South Alabama to go along with a loss to Wake Forest.
N.C. State returns five starters on offense and eight on defense and thus far in 2011 is 0-1 against the spread. The Bearcats also return five starters on offense while bringing back 10 on defense. Cincinnati is currently 1-1 against the spread.
North Carolina State at Cincinnati: What Bettors Need to Know
North Carolina State Wolfpack at Cincinnati Bearcats (-7.5, 60.5)
THE STORY: Depleted North Carolina State visits a Cincinnati team eager to avenge last year’s 30-19 loss in Raleigh, N.C., which sent the Bearcats plunging to 4-8 after consecutive Big East titles. Led by senior quarterback Zach Collaros, Cincinnati is averaging 51.3 points (4th nationally) and 433 total yards.
The Wolfpack will be without linebacker Terrell Manning, defensive tackle J.R. Sweezy and possibly defensive end Jeff Rieskamp. Earlier, corner Jarvis Byrd was lost for the season. Coach Tom O’Brien said his staff is like “the Dutch boy, putting fingers in the dike.”
TV: ESPN
LINE MOVES: This spread has bounced between 7.5 and 8 while the total opened at as low as 59.5 and has been since been bet up.
ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA STATE (2-1, 0-1 ACC): Redshirt junior Mike Glennon has done well taking over for Russell Wilson. In his last three halves, he’s completed nearly 70 percent of his throws and tossed seven TDs. Sophomore CB David Amerson leads the ACC with three interceptions and is tied for second nationally. But the defense has struggled in the red zone, allowing opponents to score on all eight trips (four TDs, four FGs).
ABOUT CINCINNATI (2-1, 0-0 Big East): RB Isaiah Pead has run for 257 yards and four TDs on just 27 carries. Collaros needs 141 yards to become the fifth Bearcat to pass for 5,000 career yards. His favorite target is D.J. Woods, who has 15 grabs for 232 yards and a score. The defense forced six turnovers in last week’s rout of Akron, returning two interceptions and a fumble for touchdowns.
WEATHER: There is a 28 percent chance of rain at Nippert Stadium for kickoff Thursday. The forecast is calling for more of the wet stuff as the game continues. Rain could have an impact in the fourth quarter, which should catch the attention of second-half bettors.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Wolfpack senior WR/returner T.J. Graham averages 194 all-purpose yards, which ranks second in the ACC and sixth nationally.
2. Bearcats freshman K Tony Miliano has had two FG tries blocked this year, including a 43-yarder last week against Akron. He also nailed a 47-yarder.
3. The game will be O’Brien’s first in his hometown since 1973, when he played at Xavier.
TRENDS:
- Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
- Bearcats are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
- Under is 4-0 in Wolfpack's last four non-conference games.
- Under is 9-1 in Bearcats' last 10 Thursday games.
PREDICTION: Cincinnati 34, N.C. State 21 – The Wolfpack are missing several key defenders, and Collaros will capitalize.
NCAAF Week 4
Cincinnati (+2) lost 30-19 at NC State LY, as Wolfpack outrushed UC 158-75; both teams passed for 300+ yards. NC State is 2-1 this season, but both wins were vs I-AA foes- they gave up 438 yards in 34-27 loss at Wake Forest two weeks ago. State is 20-11 as a dog with O'Brien as coach, 12-6 on road- they're 8-6 in non-league games. Bearcats are +12 in turnovers already this year, with only one giveaway- they're 4-8 in last dozen games as a home favorite, 6-12 in last 18 non-conference games.