Pitt Panthers Home 'Dogs To South Florida Bulls
By: Jeff Grant
The South Florida Bulls (4-0) and Pittsburgh Panthers (2-2) open up their 2011 Big East schedules and handicappers will likely examine their numbers closely against a common opponent during non-conference play.
Kickoff from Heinz Field in Pittsburgh is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. (ET) on Thursday and will be nationally televised on ESPN.
Both teams have played Notre Dame and came away with different results. South Florida opened the season with a 23-20 win as 10 ½-point road underdogs, while Pittsburgh dropped a 15-12 home decision this past week when getting a touchdown.
Bettors have certainly taken those results into consideration, moving the Bulls from a pick’ em in this contest to solid 2 ½-point road favorites.
South Florida just slipped into the top 30 of this week's Don Best Linemakers Poll at No. 28 after producing a perfect mark through four weeks. Offensively, the Bulls have produced 122 points over the past two games, which has resulted in scoring over 50 points in back-to-back games for the first time in school history.
The running game did most of the damage in a 52-24 win over the UTEP Miners as 30-point home favorites last week, gaining 373 yards, which fell four yards short of setting a single-game record for the program.
Quarterback B.J. Daniels shouldn’t be forgotten in this matchup, throwing for 1,071 passing yards in the first four weeks of the season. It’s likely that those numbers will not be reached in playing Thursday’s conference opponent, as South Florida has been outscored by a 58-24 margin in the last two meetings in this series.
The Bulls will be favored for the first time in the last three meetings against Pitt. South Florida failed to cover the last two contests when playing as underdogs of three and 6 ½ points.
Pittsburgh is looking to snap a two-game losing streak and will be making its 17th Thursday night ESPN appearance, posting a 1-4 record in the last five such contests. The Panthers lead this series, 5-3, splitting four games when playing as host.
First-year head coach Todd Graham took over a young program in the Steel City that had only two seniors starting offensively, both on the offensive line. That group lost guard Chris Jacobson for the season last week with a knee injury.
Despite the injury, Pittsburgh is likely to still feature its running game, as junior Ray Graham leads the conference and ranks eight nationally in rushing for 127 yards a contest.
For bettors looking for an early score, the program has yet to allow a single point in the first 15 minutes of action this season, outscoring opponents by a 29-0 margin in the first quarter.
Expect the Panthers defense to try and disrupt Daniels in the passing game, as the unit is averaging 2.75 sacks per game, which is tied for 23rd in the nation. That's slightly above last year’s pace of registering 2.62 sacks a contest.
The program has shown great ability in bouncing back, coming into this prime-time event with a 10-1 ATS mark after suffering a straight-up loss.
Early weather forecasts suggest showery conditions and temperatures in the upper-50s in the Pittsburgh area.
South Florida at Pittsburgh Preview
By Andrew Lange
Prime opportunity for Pitt to get its season back on track with a Thursday night primetime affair against South Florida. The Panthers have not looked the part thus far; struggling with Todd Graham’s offense and not consistently playing the type of stout defense we saw under Dave Wannstedt. Graham seems pretty baffled that his team is so inept with the ball but unlike West Virginia, who was coming from a spread background, the change in philosophies for Pitt was more than just a few tweaks. After a solid sophomore campaign, quarterback Tino Sunseri has looked lost at times which is a bit surprising because even though he’s dealing with a new offense, he’s had plenty of time to adjust to a system that is perfectly set up for quarterback success. The big battle in this game however will take place in the trenches. South Florida’s defense has already produced 33 tackles for loss, 11 sacks and is holding foes to 2.67 yards per rush. Pitt has allowed 18 sacks and is averaging a very mediocre 3.70 ypr – nearly a full yard below last season’s average. These two teams have sort of mirrored one another over the last few years by playing hard-nosed, gritty, grind-it-out football. Right now, South Florida looks like Pitt wishes it could – aggressive, confident and poised to make a big play at anytime. The Panthers look pretty much the same as they did under Wanny though with more sophisticated offensive formations. I’m not completely sold on USF after playing just one halfway decent opponent (Notre Dame), and the situation does say take the home underdog but I’ve yet to commit.
South Florida at Pittsburgh: What Bettors Need to Know
South Florida Bulls at Pittsburgh Panthers (+2.5, 52)
THE STORY: Pittsburgh will try to knock off the final undefeated team in the Big East as it hosts No. 16 South Florida on Thursday night. Led by quarterback B.J. Daniels, the Bulls currently boast one of the most prolific offenses in the country. The Panthers, meanwhile, are mired in a two-game losing streak and haven’t won since the university announced its pending departure to the ACC.
TV: ESPN
LINE MOVES: USF opened as a 2-point road favorite and has been bet up as high as -3 at some books. The total opened at 51.5 and has jumped to 52.
ABOUT USF (4-0, 0-0 Big East, 3-1 ATS): Daniels already has topped 300 yards passing twice this season and has 1,071 yards through the air—16th in the Football Bowl Subdivision. USF entered the week ranked 10th in the FBS in total yardage (523.25 ypg) and scoring (43.5 ppg), totals bolstered greatly by defeating Florida A&M and UTEP by a combined margin of 122-41. USF leads the Big East in total offense and ranks second in the league in every other major statistical offensive category.
ABOUT PITT (2-2, 0-0 Big East, 1-3 ATS): Defeats to Iowa and Notre Dame have Pitt saddled with its first two-game losing streak since the end of the 2009 season. The Panthers accounted for a season-low 268 yards of total offense in last week’s 15-12 loss to Notre Dame. The Panthers averaged less than 3 yards per carry and yielded six sacks against the Irish in the first game since senior offensive guard Chris Jacobson went on the shelf with a season-ending knee injury.
TRENDS:
- Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
- Bulls are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings.
- Panthers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 conference games.
- Bulls are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite.
WEATHER: The forecast for Heinz Field is calling for a 57 percent chance of showers and game-time temperatures in the mid 50s.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. USF planned ahead for the short week leading into the Pitt game. Last week, Skip Holtz and his staff spent an hour every night after completing game-week preparations for UTEP, and Holtz kept his staff home last Friday to work on the gameplan for the Panthers. USF also had to practice at 9:30 p.m. Monday, its typical off day, due to the loaded class schedule of its players and inclement weather that cancelled Sunday’s practice.
2. Pitt is seeking its fourth consecutive victory over USF.
3. Ray Graham is off to the best start for a Pitt rusher in nearly a quarter century. Graham currently has 508 yards rushing—the highest total for any Pitt player since Craig "Ironhead" Heyward had 537 yards through four games in 1983.
PREDICTION: USF 31, Pitt 21 – Both teams face a short week of preparation, which mitigates Pitt’s home-field advantage. The Bulls have more weapons and a much more potent offense. Expect USF to improve to 5-0.