Arizona at Oklahoma State: What Bettors Need to Know
Arizona Wildcats at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-14.5, 65)
THE STORY: No. 7 Oklahoma State will host Arizona in a rematch of the 2010 Alamo Bowl, in which the Cowboys defeated the Wildcats, 36-10.
Aside from losing their offensive coordinator, Dana Holgorsen, to West Virginia in the offseason, the Cowboys look remarkably similar to last year. Arizona, on the other hand, returns just 10 starters from a team that lost its last five games of the 2010 season after a 7-1 start.
Last year’s meeting was the first since 1942. Oklahoma State is 4-3 all-time against Arizona and has won five of its last six games against Pac-12 teams. Since 2008, Arizona is 10-2 overall in September, but just 2-2 on the road.
TV: ESPN 8 p.m. ET
ABOUT ARIZONA (1-0): Nick Foles threw for 412 yards and a career-high five touchdowns in Arizona’s 41-10 victory over Northern Arizona last week. Foles, a senior quarterback, had four of his TD passes after halftime and threw all five to different receivers. This game represents the first of a brutal four-game stretch for the Wildcats, who will play Stanford, Oregon and USC over the next three weeks.
ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (1-0): Oklahoma State racked up 666 total yards in last week’s 61-34 victory over Louisiana, the ninth-most yards in school history. In doing so, the Cowboys reached 60 points for the third time in the last 14 games as they scored on all 10 of their red-zone opportunities. The Pokes could have scored more if not for quarterback Brandon Weeden’s three interceptions.
LINE MOVES: The Cowboys opened as high as -15 and has been bet down as low as -14. The total opened at 64.5 points and has moved to 65 since post.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Oklahoma State has won its last two Thursday night games by three points each. The Cowboys defeated Texas A&M 38-35 last year and held off Colorado, 31-28, in 2009.
2. Arizona coach Mike Stoops, now in his eighth season, has defeated a ranked opponent every year since arriving in Tucson.
3. Oklahoma State returns all five of its offensive line starters from last year’s team while Arizona’s offensive line is entirely rebuilt.
TRENDS:
- Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs of 10.5 or greater.
- Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. Pac-12.
- Over is 6-2 in Wildcats last eight games overall.
- Over is 41-15 in Cowboys last 56 home games.
PREDICTION: Oklahoma State 45, Arizona 17 – Arizona’s offense looked like world beaters against undermanned Northern Arizona, but the Cowboys present a tougher test.
Oklahoma State Cowboys Host Arizona Wildcats
By: Dave Consolazio
Two of the nation’s top passing attacks clash this Thursday night as the Oklahoma State Cowboys host the Arizona Wildcats.
Kickoff from Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater is shortly after 8:00 p.m. (ET) and the game will be televised on ESPN. Oklahoma State, ranked eighth in the Don Best Oddsmaker Poll, is currently a 14½-point betting favorite.
The matchup is a rematch of last season’s Alamo Bowl, which Oklahoma State won comfortably 36-10 as a 5-point favorite. Like most teams in 2010, Arizona had no answer for Justin Blackmon, who caught nine passes for 117 yards and two touchdowns.
Arizona (1-0) begins a brutal stretch of games facing four straight ranked teams in Oklahoma State, Stanford, Oregon and USC after last week’s tune-up over Northern Arizona.
Nick Foles kicked off the Wildcats’ season with a dominant effort over Northern Arizona, passing for 412 yards and five touchdowns in the 41-10 victory. Foles’ performance helped Arizona cover as 27-point favorites at home.
Arizona is still stacked at the skill positions with Foles, running back Keola Antolin and wide receiver Juron Criner all returning, but they do have some major question marks. Entering the season with no returning starters on the offensive line and the second best cornerback Jonathan McKnight lost to injury, Arizona could struggle over this early stretch of tough games.
Oklahoma State (1-0) averaged over 520 yards per game last season, and the Cowboys picked up right where they left off with a 666-yard effort against Louisiana-Lafayette. Despite putting up 61 points, Mike Gundy's group failed to cover as 38-point favorites as the defense surrendered 34 points as well.
With Brandon Weeden returning at quarterback and Blackmon back at wide receiver, Oklahoma State boasts one of the best 1-2 punches in the nation. Having a deep receiving core behind Blackmon and all five starters returning on the offensive line, the Cowboys should continue to put up huge numbers in 2011.
Joseph Randle rushed for 129 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries as one of the only new starters on Oklahoma State’s offense.
Arizona’s stout offense should give Oklahoma State a good test on defense for the upcoming Big-12 schedule. With one of the nation’s best offenses, Oklahoma State figures they can shoot it out with anyone this year; but the defense will have to step up for the Cowboys to have a truly special season. The defensive line should be able to get some pressure on the inexperienced Arizona offensive line.
The total went ‘over’ in each team’s first game, and will likely be set very high for this one considering the offensive potential and defensive vulnerability of these two teams.
NCAAF Week 2
Oklahoma State (-4.5) hammered Arizona 36-10 in Alamo Bowl LY, as Cowboys had five sacks and were +4 in turnovers. State is 11-5-1 as a home favorite last three years; they've got nine starters back on offense, with a senior QB (13 starts) who played minor league baseball, so he is a little older. Cowboys have all five starters back on OL. Arizona has five starters back on both sides of ball, with senior QB (22 starts) but the most inexperienced OL in whole country. Since 2008, Wildcats are 2-4-1 against the spread as road underdog.
Arizona at Oklahoma State
By Christian Alexander
A good start to the Thursday night play of the week as Western Kentucky clamped down on Kentucky’s offense and had no problem staying within the 19 point spread. Of course, it would have been better if I could have watched that game but ESPN was showing the Wisconsin/UNLV game. As entertaining as that game turned out to be – hey, it was fun watching Wisconsin and their dangerous offense with QB Russell Wilson at the helm - I’m glad I steered clear of that game from a betting perspective. The Badgers looked in control all night long, and to be sure, they were never in jeopardy of losing the game. However, those who backed Wisconsin at the betting window were left feeling sick as UNLV snuck in the back door with a couple of late scores to end the game 51-17. That obviously meant those holding Wisconsin -34.5 took the loss.
Ouch!
Moving on to this week, we have what would appear to be a much more competitive matchup with Arizona paying a visit to Oklahoma State. In general, sports TV networks such as ESPN don’t like to show games involving teams which have recently played each other. That probably puts a little damper on this matchup from a programming perspective because the Wildcats just faced the Cowboys last bowl season in the Alamo Bowl.
In that game Oklahoma State came out firing on all cylinders and Arizona had no response. The final score was a remarkable 36-10 beating – especially notable considering the Wildcats were only four point underdogs. The 10 points on the scoreboard was a season low for Arizona in terms of output and a season low for the points allowed for the Oklahoma State defense.
That result of that game, in combination with the fact that Oklahoma State’s offense returns nine starters and will go against an Arizona defense with only five starters back, largely explains why this number is about 10 points higher than it was last December. (home field advantage has something to do with it as well)
The good news for Arizona is that, despite only returning five starters on offense, some very key pieces are back in Tucson. QB Nick Foles, RB Keola Antolin, and WR Juron Criner (see below) give Arizona coach Mike Stoops a great foundation to build his offense around. That group certainly started out 2011 on the right foot with Foles throwing for 412 yards and five touchdowns in the season opener against Northern Arizona. Those stats make Foles the number one QB in the nation heading into this game.
Not that anyone expects the Oklahoma State defense to be on par with Northern Arizona. However, it is worth remembering that the Cowboys were only 88th in total offense in 2010 and this current team just returns five starters on that side of the ball. They will have to bring their “A” game this Thursday night to contain a dangerous Arizona offense.
Defense is always of utmost importance to Mike Stoops, who came up through the ranks as a defensive coach. His Arizona defense will be severely tested this Thursday night against QB Brandon Weeden and an offense which averaged 44.2 points per game in 2011. Scary.
If the Cowboys can get off to a fast start it might simply be to much for Foles and Arizona to answer. However, if Stoops and his bunch can survive the first quarter and settle in, this game might come down to a couple key possessions in the 4th quarter.
Best of luck to all!
Injury Note: Arizona WR Juron Criner has been downgraded to 'out' Thursday vs. Oklahoma State.